中国金融结构调整的经济效应研究
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摘要
金融结构是金融发展的重要特征,金融结构调整则是金融发展的具体形式。金融结构调整将通过风险分散、信息处理以及公司外部治理等金融功能的协同发挥,形成技术创新、融资约束缓解和资本配置效应,进而影响经济增长进程。改革以来,随着我国金融改革渐次推进,金融结构经历了持续而显著的调整过程。以股票市场为代表的直接融资渠道规模占社会融资总量的比例显著提升,融资总量结构日趋合理。与此同时,投资者结构不断优化,多层次资本市场建设成效显著；国有商业银行治理结构不断完善,银行业准入门槛不断降低,银行业产业结构也出现了显著调整。在2007年金融危机后,全球金融结构面临重构的大背景下,考察我国改革以来金融结构调整形成的经济效应,对于明确金融结构调整未来方向有着重要意义。
在有关金融结构与经济增长之间宏观因果关系的诸多跨国比较研究中,广泛采用金融结构简单两分法范式对银行主导型与金融市场主导型两类典型金融结构影响经济发展的差异进行分析,但对处于两类典型结构之间的连续金融结构调整过程,上述研究的结论并不一致。为此,本文引入在时空上具有相对稳定性的金融功能,构建具有较好可比性的金融结构调整测度依据。并基于内生金融增长理论构建理论分析框架,剖析了金融结构调整经由金融功能实现,作用于影响经济增长的技术创新、融资约束和资本配置三类效应的内在机制。在此基础上,以我国35个工业行业1996至2011年的行业专利申请数、行业研发投资额和研发投资强度为研究样本,系统实证检验了我国金融结构调整的技术创新效应；随后,分别采用投资—现金流敏感性指标和现金—现金流敏感性指标,以我国1997至2012年制造业上市公司为研究样本,检验了我国金融结构调整的融资约束缓解效应；最后,通过扩展Wurgler模型,以1996至2007年我国35个工业行业为研究样本,实证检验了金融结构调整的资本配置效应。
实证研究发现,我国金融结构调整形成了显著技术创新效应和融资约束缓解效应,对推动改革以来的经济增长发挥了重要作用。具体表现为：(1)金融结构调整通过促进企业技术创新投资,改善企业技术创新投资效率,有力支持了我国企业技术创新；(2)金融结构调整降低了制造业上市公司的投资—现金流敏感性和现金—现金流敏感性,有效缓解了企业融资约束,在一定程度上抑制了企业的过度投资；(3)1996至2007年间,金融结构调整在一定程度上提升了资本配置效率,但作用有限。而在1996至2007年间,国有银行的寡占贷款中较高比重的政策性贷款,则显著抑制了资本配置效率的改善。我国金融结构调整在以下方面制约了三类经济效应的形成：(1)银行业规模结构不合理抑制了我国商业银行在甄别技术创新机会、发现创新产业以及监督企业改善技术创新投资效率上的动力；(2)投资者结构不合理弱化了股票市场对公司管理人的监管与约束,难以有效抑制管理人滥用自由现金流从事非效率投资的倾向；(3)资本市场层次结构不合理阻滞了相对高效率的新型高科技中小企业的直接融资渠道,资本市场尚未发挥为高效率行业高效配置资本的功能。
本文认为,在促进金融市场与金融中介均衡发展的同时,改善投资者结构和银行业规模结构将会有利于我国金融结构未来调整。配合多层次资本市场建设与上市发审制度的改革,通过引导、监督以及积极培育机构投资者,改善我国投资者结构,将有利于促进金融市场功能发挥,进而增强银行业的外部竞争压力。通过改善银行业规模结构可以促进银行业适度竞争度,促进金融中介信息处理和债权治理功能发挥。
As an important feature of financial development, financial structure will determine the effects on the real economy by the financial system function. The adjustment of financial structure would effecting on the real economy through the technological innovation, easing the financing constraints and capital allocation effects which produced by financial function such as corporate governance, allocation capital,easing of information production and diversifying the investment risk. With sustained financial reform since1979, China's financial structure has experienced a significant reform process. It's very important to study the effects on the real economic of the adjusting of the financial structure in China after the most recent financial crises.
The simple dichotomy of financial structure widely used in the study of the relationship of financial structure and economic growth by international comparison, has exploration of the bank based versus financial markets based structure as a typical financial structure impact on economic development. But the research findings of the financial structure adjusting between the two kinds of typical structure are inconsistent. This article analyzed the financial restructuring through the effects of technical innovation, financing constraints and capital allocation affecting economic growth introducing the financial function which has the relative stability character in time and space as the basis of the financial restructuring measures and based on analysis of the endogenous financial growth theory of financial function.
Firstly, this paper investigates the effects of the financial structure adjusted on the technological innovation of the Chinese35Industrial industry's patent application numbers and R&D investment ratios from1996to2011. Secondly, the paper investigates the effect on the financing constraints of financial structure adjustment by the data of the listed companies from1997to2012using the investment-cash flow sensitivity and index of cash-cash flow sensitivity index respectively. Thirdly, empirical tests of the financial structure adjustment effects on the capital allocation effects was made by an Industrial industry investment data and industrial added value from1996to2007in China as study sample based on the Wurgler model.
The empirical study found that the adjustments of China's financial structure since1979have had the significant promoting the technological innovation and the mitigation of financing constraints effects that important to promoting economic growth. But the financial restructuring had not raising the efficiency of capital allocation effectively as the same time. The major defects of the financial structure in China are:(1) the unreasonable size structure in Chinese commercial banks underpowered on the efficiency of supervision technology innovation investment, screening technology innovation opportunities and Innovation of in Industries. Oligopoly in the share of the loan policy of the state owned banks, curbed improvement of the efficiency of capital allocation, and (2) irrational investor structure of the stock market has not yet formed supervision and constraint company managers effectively, it is difficult to suppression the trends of the managers'abuse the free cash flow to the inefficient investment;(3) the unreasonable levels of capital market structure retardant the direct financial channel of the new type of high-tech small and medium-sized enterprises, and capital markets had not efficient allocation of capital into these industry efficiently.
The conclusion of this article is that, giving priority to improve the structure of the investors will benefit the adjustment of China's financial structure. It will help to promote competition between financial markets and banking by actively cultivating and monitoring institutional investors and improving the structure of the investors in China with construction of multi-level capital market and the reform of system of the listed, at the same time maintaining reasonable degree of competition of the banking.The outside competition will forced the commercial banks make their own structural adjustment to enhance the function of financial intermediation.
在有关金融结构与经济增长之间宏观因果关系的诸多跨国比较研究中,广泛采用金融结构简单两分法范式对银行主导型与金融市场主导型两类典型金融结构影响经济发展的差异进行分析,但对处于两类典型结构之间的连续金融结构调整过程,上述研究的结论并不一致。为此,本文引入在时空上具有相对稳定性的金融功能,构建具有较好可比性的金融结构调整测度依据。并基于内生金融增长理论构建理论分析框架,剖析了金融结构调整经由金融功能实现,作用于影响经济增长的技术创新、融资约束和资本配置三类效应的内在机制。在此基础上,以我国35个工业行业1996至2011年的行业专利申请数、行业研发投资额和研发投资强度为研究样本,系统实证检验了我国金融结构调整的技术创新效应；随后,分别采用投资—现金流敏感性指标和现金—现金流敏感性指标,以我国1997至2012年制造业上市公司为研究样本,检验了我国金融结构调整的融资约束缓解效应；最后,通过扩展Wurgler模型,以1996至2007年我国35个工业行业为研究样本,实证检验了金融结构调整的资本配置效应。
实证研究发现,我国金融结构调整形成了显著技术创新效应和融资约束缓解效应,对推动改革以来的经济增长发挥了重要作用。具体表现为：(1)金融结构调整通过促进企业技术创新投资,改善企业技术创新投资效率,有力支持了我国企业技术创新；(2)金融结构调整降低了制造业上市公司的投资—现金流敏感性和现金—现金流敏感性,有效缓解了企业融资约束,在一定程度上抑制了企业的过度投资；(3)1996至2007年间,金融结构调整在一定程度上提升了资本配置效率,但作用有限。而在1996至2007年间,国有银行的寡占贷款中较高比重的政策性贷款,则显著抑制了资本配置效率的改善。我国金融结构调整在以下方面制约了三类经济效应的形成：(1)银行业规模结构不合理抑制了我国商业银行在甄别技术创新机会、发现创新产业以及监督企业改善技术创新投资效率上的动力；(2)投资者结构不合理弱化了股票市场对公司管理人的监管与约束,难以有效抑制管理人滥用自由现金流从事非效率投资的倾向；(3)资本市场层次结构不合理阻滞了相对高效率的新型高科技中小企业的直接融资渠道,资本市场尚未发挥为高效率行业高效配置资本的功能。
本文认为,在促进金融市场与金融中介均衡发展的同时,改善投资者结构和银行业规模结构将会有利于我国金融结构未来调整。配合多层次资本市场建设与上市发审制度的改革,通过引导、监督以及积极培育机构投资者,改善我国投资者结构,将有利于促进金融市场功能发挥,进而增强银行业的外部竞争压力。通过改善银行业规模结构可以促进银行业适度竞争度,促进金融中介信息处理和债权治理功能发挥。
As an important feature of financial development, financial structure will determine the effects on the real economy by the financial system function. The adjustment of financial structure would effecting on the real economy through the technological innovation, easing the financing constraints and capital allocation effects which produced by financial function such as corporate governance, allocation capital,easing of information production and diversifying the investment risk. With sustained financial reform since1979, China's financial structure has experienced a significant reform process. It's very important to study the effects on the real economic of the adjusting of the financial structure in China after the most recent financial crises.
The simple dichotomy of financial structure widely used in the study of the relationship of financial structure and economic growth by international comparison, has exploration of the bank based versus financial markets based structure as a typical financial structure impact on economic development. But the research findings of the financial structure adjusting between the two kinds of typical structure are inconsistent. This article analyzed the financial restructuring through the effects of technical innovation, financing constraints and capital allocation affecting economic growth introducing the financial function which has the relative stability character in time and space as the basis of the financial restructuring measures and based on analysis of the endogenous financial growth theory of financial function.
Firstly, this paper investigates the effects of the financial structure adjusted on the technological innovation of the Chinese35Industrial industry's patent application numbers and R&D investment ratios from1996to2011. Secondly, the paper investigates the effect on the financing constraints of financial structure adjustment by the data of the listed companies from1997to2012using the investment-cash flow sensitivity and index of cash-cash flow sensitivity index respectively. Thirdly, empirical tests of the financial structure adjustment effects on the capital allocation effects was made by an Industrial industry investment data and industrial added value from1996to2007in China as study sample based on the Wurgler model.
The empirical study found that the adjustments of China's financial structure since1979have had the significant promoting the technological innovation and the mitigation of financing constraints effects that important to promoting economic growth. But the financial restructuring had not raising the efficiency of capital allocation effectively as the same time. The major defects of the financial structure in China are:(1) the unreasonable size structure in Chinese commercial banks underpowered on the efficiency of supervision technology innovation investment, screening technology innovation opportunities and Innovation of in Industries. Oligopoly in the share of the loan policy of the state owned banks, curbed improvement of the efficiency of capital allocation, and (2) irrational investor structure of the stock market has not yet formed supervision and constraint company managers effectively, it is difficult to suppression the trends of the managers'abuse the free cash flow to the inefficient investment;(3) the unreasonable levels of capital market structure retardant the direct financial channel of the new type of high-tech small and medium-sized enterprises, and capital markets had not efficient allocation of capital into these industry efficiently.
The conclusion of this article is that, giving priority to improve the structure of the investors will benefit the adjustment of China's financial structure. It will help to promote competition between financial markets and banking by actively cultivating and monitoring institutional investors and improving the structure of the investors in China with construction of multi-level capital market and the reform of system of the listed, at the same time maintaining reasonable degree of competition of the banking.The outside competition will forced the commercial banks make their own structural adjustment to enhance the function of financial intermediation.
引文
① 林毅夫,孙希芳,姜烨.经济发展中的最优金融结构理论初探.经济研究,2009,08：4-17.
① Dwight B. Crane.The Global Financial Systerm:A Functional Perspective.Harvard Business School Press,1995:6.
① 陈雨露.大金融论纲,北京,商务印书馆,2012.P208
② 富兰克林,艾伦.比较金融系统,北京,中国人民大学出版社,2002.P122
① 在《中国金融制度的结构与变迁》一书中,张杰认为,中国的制度二重结构可以概括为：发达而富有控制力的上层结构,流动性强且分散化的下层结构,在上下两层结构之间却缺乏严密有效而富于协调功能的中间结构。金融组织在二重结构中首先遵从的是上层结构(国家)的偏好,而不是下层结构的需求。
① 张杰.中国金融制度的结构与变迁,北京,中国人民大学出版社,2011.P159
① 中国经济增长与宏观稳定课题组,张平,刘霞辉,张晓晶,张磊,王宏淼.金融发展与经济增长：从动员性扩张向市场配置的转变[J].经济研究,2007,04：4-17
① 中华人民共和国中央人民政府网站http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2013-12/14/content_2547699.htm
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① 陈雨露.大金融论纲,北京,商务印书馆,2012.P208
② 富兰克林,艾伦.比较金融系统,北京,中国人民大学出版社,2002.P122
① 在《中国金融制度的结构与变迁》一书中,张杰认为,中国的制度二重结构可以概括为：发达而富有控制力的上层结构,流动性强且分散化的下层结构,在上下两层结构之间却缺乏严密有效而富于协调功能的中间结构。金融组织在二重结构中首先遵从的是上层结构(国家)的偏好,而不是下层结构的需求。
① 张杰.中国金融制度的结构与变迁,北京,中国人民大学出版社,2011.P159
① 中国经济增长与宏观稳定课题组,张平,刘霞辉,张晓晶,张磊,王宏淼.金融发展与经济增长：从动员性扩张向市场配置的转变[J].经济研究,2007,04：4-17
① 中华人民共和国中央人民政府网站http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2013-12/14/content_2547699.htm
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