新林林区地表死可燃物含水率分布模型的研究
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摘要
森林火灾是影响全球环境和社会经济发展的突发事件。国际上,很多项目在研究林火及其影响,我国是一个林火多发的国家。目前,森林地表死可燃物含水率的模型建立、数据处理与分析应用等还很滞后,主要表现在：(1)森林火险预测预报采用的是区域气象预测预报模式,用于解决森林防火中实际工作的应用,忽视了森林环境的多样性,致使需求的严重脱节；(2)在地表死可燃物载量的计算中,只能给出估计载量的计算结果,无法将计算结果与环境相结合；(3)根据实时可燃物含水率测量值的模型通常都是和气象因子进行拟合分析,而在利用可燃物含水率测量值在防火应用中,仅采用了单一的通报指导模式；(4)同一地区森林环境不同可燃物含水率也不同,是否可以应用其差异以及如何应用,在这方面还缺乏研究。
为了解决上述问题,本文首先对相关问题进行理论研究,建立相应的理论模型,然后利用研究区中的样地实测资料进行实验分析和比较研究：(1)根据间接平差、非线性最最小二乘理论和样木资料,研究用森林可燃物载量和含水率估计森林火险的分析模型；(2)利用森林资源调查结果和样地资料,并结合地表死可燃物的分布图,研究和分析区域林型和样地地表死可燃物载量的精确估计模型,；(3)利用同质标准样实时测量的数值和样地类型资料,研究标准样测量值与森林环境预测含水率的拟合模型；(4)利用生物学特征、燃烧能量和样地资料,研究同一地区森林环境不同可燃物含水率的差异以及差异防火应用技术。
本此研究的创新点主要有以下5个方面：(1)指出目前使用的森林火险预测预报与森林防火工作脱节的问题,给出了依据双因子控制改进火险预测数据处理,建立分布模型和变化模型：(2)导出了用二维分布图方法和样地调查,直观描述火险环境变化模型；(3)导出了由同质实测与样地调查建立对可燃物含水率进行实时估计的线性模型,以及实时提供可燃物温、湿度变化的分布模型；(4)给出了由可燃物差异分布和森林类型含水率非均衡分布状况下防火技术应用的一种新方法；(5)建立了地表死可燃物与含水率的二维分布图的拟合模型。
本文主要有如下研究结论：(1)在解决森林可燃物含水率问题同时,提出了宜采用同质相拟森林环境火险预测法,指出不宜使用目前广泛使用的气象火险预测法；(2)在对森林地表死可燃物载量的计算过程中,需采用类型样地估测地表死可燃物的方法；(3)森林地表死可燃物载量计算的精度,主要取决于对该地区类型样地划分的影响；(4)由森林资源调查数据转换可燃物量时,采用本文表明的三分法模型,以便获得较高的森林地表死可燃物分布；(5)用样地的实测含水率和标准含水率,根据实时含水率变化估算同类型森林环境中的含水率,是一种更为实用的方法；(6)用本文所导出的实时变化估计模型对同一地区不同森林类型间的含水率分布进行转换,即可获得动态的可燃物含水率变化模型。
Forest fires are affecting the global environment and the socio-economic development in emergencies. Internationally, many projects in the researches of forest fires and their impact that China is a country prone to forest fires.Modeling of surface fuel moisture content, data processing and analysis applications still lags behind now, mainly in the:(1) Prediction of forest fire used the regional weather forecasting model for addressing forest fire in the application of practical work, ignoring the diversity of the forest environment, resulting in a serious gap between demand;(2)It can only give an estimated load results in calculations of the surface fuel load, the results can not be combined with the environment;(3) It is usually carried out regression analysis with meteorological factors according to real-time fuel moisture content measurement model, and when applications of the measured value in the fire, just using a single communication guide mode;(4) Fuel moisture content are different in the same forest area in different environments, whether we can apply its differences and how to apply, also a lack of research in this area;
This paper study each issue and establish the appropriate theoretical model firstly to solve the above problems, then taking experimental analysis and interrelated comparative study using the measured data in the study area:(1) According to the theory of indirect adjustment, nonlinear least squares method and sample timber, studying on forest fuel load and moisture content, estimating analysis model of forest fire risk;(2) Using of forest resources and plot data, Research and analysis of regional forest type and the accurate estimation model of sample surface fuel load, and combining resources to form the distribution of fuel surface;(3) Using of real-time measurement data and the data of plots which is in Homogeneous standard sample to study the fit model of the measured value and predictive moisture content of the forest environment;(4) Using of biological characteristics, combustion energy and plots to study the difference of fuel moisture content in the same area but different environments and the corresponding technology of fire protection.
This made a major research and innovation in the following five areas:(1) Pointed out the problem that the current forecast of forest fire out of touch with forest fire, given data processing to improve fire prediction based on two-factor control, established distribution model and change model.(2) Derived that using Two-dimensional maps methods and plot survey method describe environmental change model of fire intuitively;(3) Exported linear model estimated by real-time fuel moisture, provided distribution model of changing in temperature and humidity, established by sample investigation and homogeneity measured;(4) Given a new fire protection technology at the difference distribution in fuel and moisture content under non-equilibrium distribution;(5) Formed the fitted mode of moisture content of surface fuel and two-dimensional distribution;
the conclusions In this papen(1) With solving the problem of forest fuel moisture content, the proposed that using of the homogeneous fit forest environment fire prediction method, not using the weather fire prediction method which widely used now;(2) In the calculations of forest floor fuel load, we should adopt the method of the type samples to estimate surface fuel;(3) The accuracy of calculation on forest floor fuel load mainly depends on the influence of the dipartition of sample in the region;(4) The paper used the trichotomy model when convert forest resources survey data to the fuel volume, so that to obtain a higher distribution of forest floor fuel;(5) According to changes of real-time moisture content to estimate the moisture content in the same type forest environment, it is a more practical approach;(6) Using the real-time changes estimated model in this paper to conduct the moisture content conversion in different forest types of the same area, it can access to a dynamic change model of combustible moisture content.
为了解决上述问题,本文首先对相关问题进行理论研究,建立相应的理论模型,然后利用研究区中的样地实测资料进行实验分析和比较研究：(1)根据间接平差、非线性最最小二乘理论和样木资料,研究用森林可燃物载量和含水率估计森林火险的分析模型；(2)利用森林资源调查结果和样地资料,并结合地表死可燃物的分布图,研究和分析区域林型和样地地表死可燃物载量的精确估计模型,；(3)利用同质标准样实时测量的数值和样地类型资料,研究标准样测量值与森林环境预测含水率的拟合模型；(4)利用生物学特征、燃烧能量和样地资料,研究同一地区森林环境不同可燃物含水率的差异以及差异防火应用技术。
本此研究的创新点主要有以下5个方面：(1)指出目前使用的森林火险预测预报与森林防火工作脱节的问题,给出了依据双因子控制改进火险预测数据处理,建立分布模型和变化模型：(2)导出了用二维分布图方法和样地调查,直观描述火险环境变化模型；(3)导出了由同质实测与样地调查建立对可燃物含水率进行实时估计的线性模型,以及实时提供可燃物温、湿度变化的分布模型；(4)给出了由可燃物差异分布和森林类型含水率非均衡分布状况下防火技术应用的一种新方法；(5)建立了地表死可燃物与含水率的二维分布图的拟合模型。
本文主要有如下研究结论：(1)在解决森林可燃物含水率问题同时,提出了宜采用同质相拟森林环境火险预测法,指出不宜使用目前广泛使用的气象火险预测法；(2)在对森林地表死可燃物载量的计算过程中,需采用类型样地估测地表死可燃物的方法；(3)森林地表死可燃物载量计算的精度,主要取决于对该地区类型样地划分的影响；(4)由森林资源调查数据转换可燃物量时,采用本文表明的三分法模型,以便获得较高的森林地表死可燃物分布；(5)用样地的实测含水率和标准含水率,根据实时含水率变化估算同类型森林环境中的含水率,是一种更为实用的方法；(6)用本文所导出的实时变化估计模型对同一地区不同森林类型间的含水率分布进行转换,即可获得动态的可燃物含水率变化模型。
Forest fires are affecting the global environment and the socio-economic development in emergencies. Internationally, many projects in the researches of forest fires and their impact that China is a country prone to forest fires.Modeling of surface fuel moisture content, data processing and analysis applications still lags behind now, mainly in the:(1) Prediction of forest fire used the regional weather forecasting model for addressing forest fire in the application of practical work, ignoring the diversity of the forest environment, resulting in a serious gap between demand;(2)It can only give an estimated load results in calculations of the surface fuel load, the results can not be combined with the environment;(3) It is usually carried out regression analysis with meteorological factors according to real-time fuel moisture content measurement model, and when applications of the measured value in the fire, just using a single communication guide mode;(4) Fuel moisture content are different in the same forest area in different environments, whether we can apply its differences and how to apply, also a lack of research in this area;
This paper study each issue and establish the appropriate theoretical model firstly to solve the above problems, then taking experimental analysis and interrelated comparative study using the measured data in the study area:(1) According to the theory of indirect adjustment, nonlinear least squares method and sample timber, studying on forest fuel load and moisture content, estimating analysis model of forest fire risk;(2) Using of forest resources and plot data, Research and analysis of regional forest type and the accurate estimation model of sample surface fuel load, and combining resources to form the distribution of fuel surface;(3) Using of real-time measurement data and the data of plots which is in Homogeneous standard sample to study the fit model of the measured value and predictive moisture content of the forest environment;(4) Using of biological characteristics, combustion energy and plots to study the difference of fuel moisture content in the same area but different environments and the corresponding technology of fire protection.
This made a major research and innovation in the following five areas:(1) Pointed out the problem that the current forecast of forest fire out of touch with forest fire, given data processing to improve fire prediction based on two-factor control, established distribution model and change model.(2) Derived that using Two-dimensional maps methods and plot survey method describe environmental change model of fire intuitively;(3) Exported linear model estimated by real-time fuel moisture, provided distribution model of changing in temperature and humidity, established by sample investigation and homogeneity measured;(4) Given a new fire protection technology at the difference distribution in fuel and moisture content under non-equilibrium distribution;(5) Formed the fitted mode of moisture content of surface fuel and two-dimensional distribution;
the conclusions In this papen(1) With solving the problem of forest fuel moisture content, the proposed that using of the homogeneous fit forest environment fire prediction method, not using the weather fire prediction method which widely used now;(2) In the calculations of forest floor fuel load, we should adopt the method of the type samples to estimate surface fuel;(3) The accuracy of calculation on forest floor fuel load mainly depends on the influence of the dipartition of sample in the region;(4) The paper used the trichotomy model when convert forest resources survey data to the fuel volume, so that to obtain a higher distribution of forest floor fuel;(5) According to changes of real-time moisture content to estimate the moisture content in the same type forest environment, it is a more practical approach;(6) Using the real-time changes estimated model in this paper to conduct the moisture content conversion in different forest types of the same area, it can access to a dynamic change model of combustible moisture content.
引文
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