贸易开放的劳动力效应：基于中国数据的实证研究
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摘要
自改革开放以来,外向的贸易开放政策在多个维度对中国的经济发展产生了影响,其中除了对经济增长产生影响外,对中国的劳动力也产生了较为深刻的影响。显然,在不同的条件下贸易开放对劳动力的影响是不同的,在外部条件不适宜的情况下贸易开放反而会在多个方面不利于劳动力。因此在经济全球化的背景下,为使中国从贸易开放中获得更多的收益,必须消除贸易开放造成的这些不利影响。基于此,本文致力于在国际经济学的框架内对贸易开放如何影响中国的劳动力进行实证研究,旨在发现在怎样的不同条件下贸易开放对劳动力所产生的不同影响。本文主要通过劳动生产率、就业和收入分配三个方面研究贸易开放对劳动力的影响。
本文的主要内容大体上分为七个部分。首先对本文的选题背景和意义、结构安排和创新之处等作简要说明,以表明本文的写作意图。第二章对国内外有关贸易开放和生产率提升、经济增长、就业以及收入分配的文献进行梳理,从众多的文献中可以发现主流国际贸易理论无法解释发展中国家的劳动力现象,因此针对发展中国家的特殊问题需要在国际经济学的框架内充分考虑发展中国家的基本特征。第三章对中国贸易开放政策的演变和改革开放以来贸易开放的发展做简要的介绍,并在此基础上利用自然开放度和政策导向开放度的概念对中国省际贸易开放进行分解度量。
本文的主体内容则分别从实证研究的角度详细分析贸易开放对中国劳动生产率、就业以及收入分配的影响。第四章详细分析贸易开放对劳动生产率提升的影响机制,在李嘉图贸易模型中加入干中学因素后,本文的模型发现当一个地区的比较优势为干中学速度较慢的产品时,贸易开放不利于劳动生产率的提升；反之如果一个地区的比较优势为干中学速度较快的产品时,贸易开放则有利于劳动生产率的提升。为了验证这种影响机制在中国是否成立,本文利用上一章度量的自然开放度和政策导向开放度进行实证研究,并发现只有当自然开放度较高时,政策导向开放度的提高才有利于劳动生产率提升。考虑到人力资本是劳动生产率提升的主要决定因素,第四章也分析了贸易开放对人力资本存在的先抑后扬的影响方式。第五章从两个角度分析贸易开放对就业的影响,首先本文将哈里斯-托达罗模型扩展到存在贸易开放的情况,发现如果一国的比较优势是制造品,并且制造业存在劳动力市场刚性时,那么贸易开放导致的劳动力转移将会减少就业。考虑到就业的持续性,本文利用中国的省际动态面板数据对模型的理论预期进行了验证,发现当劳动力市场存在刚性时,贸易开放将减少就业。同时本章内容也利用面板协整方法分析了当要素禀赋不同时,贸易开放对就业的不同影响,发现只有当一个地区的资本-劳动比率较低时,贸易开放才能促进就业。第六章则分析贸易开放对中国收入分配的影响,本章首先在新古典贸易模型中加入技术学习以分析贸易开放对收入不平等的两种影响途径,一方面根据萨缪尔森-斯托尔伯定理,贸易开放会缩小发展中国家的收入不平等程度；另一方面贸易开放带来的技术进步则会扩大发展中国家的收入不平等程度。此外本章内容也利用城乡收入差距度量中国收入分配状况,并使用动态面板数据回归方法和面板协整技进行实证研究,发现在中国贸易开放对城乡收入差距的影响呈现出先抑后扬的U型形状。第七章对全文进行总结并提出本文的政策含义。
Since the reform and opening-up, trade openness has affected China's economic development in a number of dimensions, which in addition affected China's economic growth, also affected labor force deeply. Obviously, the impact of trade openness on labor force is different in different conditions, trade openness will be harmful to labor for in many aspects when the external conditions are not appropriate. Therefore, in the context of economic globalization, in order to make China get more benefits, we must eliminate these negative effects of trade openness. Based on this,we commit to do empirical research about how trade openness affect China's labor force in the framework of international economics, aimed at discovering in what different conditions trade openness will has different effects on labor force. In this paper, we research the effects of trade openness on three aspects of labor force, which include labor productivity, employment and income distribution.
The main content of this paper is divided into seven sections generally. First we briefly describe the paper's background and significance, structural arrangement and innovations in order to indicate the intention of writing this paper. In chapter two we review both domestic and foreign literature about trade openness and productivity rising, economic growth, employment and income distribution, from numerous literature we find that mainstream international trade theory can not explain the labor phenomenon in developing countries, so for the special problems of developing countries, we need to combine the framework of international trade and development economic theory. We give out a brief introduction on the evolution of China's trade openness policy and the development of trade openness since reform and opening-up in chapter three. Based on this,we use the concept of natural opening and policy-oriented opening to break down and measure China's inter-provincial trade openness.
In chapter four we study the mechanism of how trade openness influence labor productivity rising, after adding the factor of learning by doing into Ricardian trade model, our model find that if the comparative advantage of a region lies in the sector which has a lower(higher) coefficient of learning by doing, trade openness will decrease(increase) the labor productivity. In order to test whether this mechanism existed in China, we carry empirical study using natural openness and policy-oriented openness measured in previous chapter, and we find only when natural openness was high, policy-oriented openness can benefit labor productivity. Taking into account that human capital was the main determinant of labor productivity rising, in chapter four we also analyze the "first restrain then accelerate" influence mechanism of trade openness on human capital. Chapter five study the influence of trade openness on employment from two perspective, first we extend Harris-Todaro model to the instance of trade openness, and find that if a country's comparative advantage is manufactured goods and there exist labor market rigidity, then the labor transfer induced by trade openness will reduce employment. Taking into account the continuity of employment, we take China's provinces dynamic panel data to verify the theoretical model's predictions, and find when labor market is rigid, trade openness will reduce employment. In this chapter we also use panel co-integration method to analyze how trade openness influence when factor endowment is different, and find that only when the capital-labor ratio was low in one region, trade openness can promote employment. Chapter six analyzes the influence of trade openness on China's income distribution, by adding technological learning into neo-classical trade model we analyzed two approaches of trade openness influenced income distribution: Samuelson-Stolper effect and technological advances effect In addition, in this chapter we also use urban-rural income gap to measure China's income distribution, and using both dynamic panel data and panel co-integration technique to carry empirical research, we find there exist an U-shape influence of trade openness on China's urban-rural income gap. Chapter seven sum up the whole content in this paper and put forward the corresponding policy implications.
本文的主要内容大体上分为七个部分。首先对本文的选题背景和意义、结构安排和创新之处等作简要说明,以表明本文的写作意图。第二章对国内外有关贸易开放和生产率提升、经济增长、就业以及收入分配的文献进行梳理,从众多的文献中可以发现主流国际贸易理论无法解释发展中国家的劳动力现象,因此针对发展中国家的特殊问题需要在国际经济学的框架内充分考虑发展中国家的基本特征。第三章对中国贸易开放政策的演变和改革开放以来贸易开放的发展做简要的介绍,并在此基础上利用自然开放度和政策导向开放度的概念对中国省际贸易开放进行分解度量。
本文的主体内容则分别从实证研究的角度详细分析贸易开放对中国劳动生产率、就业以及收入分配的影响。第四章详细分析贸易开放对劳动生产率提升的影响机制,在李嘉图贸易模型中加入干中学因素后,本文的模型发现当一个地区的比较优势为干中学速度较慢的产品时,贸易开放不利于劳动生产率的提升；反之如果一个地区的比较优势为干中学速度较快的产品时,贸易开放则有利于劳动生产率的提升。为了验证这种影响机制在中国是否成立,本文利用上一章度量的自然开放度和政策导向开放度进行实证研究,并发现只有当自然开放度较高时,政策导向开放度的提高才有利于劳动生产率提升。考虑到人力资本是劳动生产率提升的主要决定因素,第四章也分析了贸易开放对人力资本存在的先抑后扬的影响方式。第五章从两个角度分析贸易开放对就业的影响,首先本文将哈里斯-托达罗模型扩展到存在贸易开放的情况,发现如果一国的比较优势是制造品,并且制造业存在劳动力市场刚性时,那么贸易开放导致的劳动力转移将会减少就业。考虑到就业的持续性,本文利用中国的省际动态面板数据对模型的理论预期进行了验证,发现当劳动力市场存在刚性时,贸易开放将减少就业。同时本章内容也利用面板协整方法分析了当要素禀赋不同时,贸易开放对就业的不同影响,发现只有当一个地区的资本-劳动比率较低时,贸易开放才能促进就业。第六章则分析贸易开放对中国收入分配的影响,本章首先在新古典贸易模型中加入技术学习以分析贸易开放对收入不平等的两种影响途径,一方面根据萨缪尔森-斯托尔伯定理,贸易开放会缩小发展中国家的收入不平等程度；另一方面贸易开放带来的技术进步则会扩大发展中国家的收入不平等程度。此外本章内容也利用城乡收入差距度量中国收入分配状况,并使用动态面板数据回归方法和面板协整技进行实证研究,发现在中国贸易开放对城乡收入差距的影响呈现出先抑后扬的U型形状。第七章对全文进行总结并提出本文的政策含义。
Since the reform and opening-up, trade openness has affected China's economic development in a number of dimensions, which in addition affected China's economic growth, also affected labor force deeply. Obviously, the impact of trade openness on labor force is different in different conditions, trade openness will be harmful to labor for in many aspects when the external conditions are not appropriate. Therefore, in the context of economic globalization, in order to make China get more benefits, we must eliminate these negative effects of trade openness. Based on this,we commit to do empirical research about how trade openness affect China's labor force in the framework of international economics, aimed at discovering in what different conditions trade openness will has different effects on labor force. In this paper, we research the effects of trade openness on three aspects of labor force, which include labor productivity, employment and income distribution.
The main content of this paper is divided into seven sections generally. First we briefly describe the paper's background and significance, structural arrangement and innovations in order to indicate the intention of writing this paper. In chapter two we review both domestic and foreign literature about trade openness and productivity rising, economic growth, employment and income distribution, from numerous literature we find that mainstream international trade theory can not explain the labor phenomenon in developing countries, so for the special problems of developing countries, we need to combine the framework of international trade and development economic theory. We give out a brief introduction on the evolution of China's trade openness policy and the development of trade openness since reform and opening-up in chapter three. Based on this,we use the concept of natural opening and policy-oriented opening to break down and measure China's inter-provincial trade openness.
In chapter four we study the mechanism of how trade openness influence labor productivity rising, after adding the factor of learning by doing into Ricardian trade model, our model find that if the comparative advantage of a region lies in the sector which has a lower(higher) coefficient of learning by doing, trade openness will decrease(increase) the labor productivity. In order to test whether this mechanism existed in China, we carry empirical study using natural openness and policy-oriented openness measured in previous chapter, and we find only when natural openness was high, policy-oriented openness can benefit labor productivity. Taking into account that human capital was the main determinant of labor productivity rising, in chapter four we also analyze the "first restrain then accelerate" influence mechanism of trade openness on human capital. Chapter five study the influence of trade openness on employment from two perspective, first we extend Harris-Todaro model to the instance of trade openness, and find that if a country's comparative advantage is manufactured goods and there exist labor market rigidity, then the labor transfer induced by trade openness will reduce employment. Taking into account the continuity of employment, we take China's provinces dynamic panel data to verify the theoretical model's predictions, and find when labor market is rigid, trade openness will reduce employment. In this chapter we also use panel co-integration method to analyze how trade openness influence when factor endowment is different, and find that only when the capital-labor ratio was low in one region, trade openness can promote employment. Chapter six analyzes the influence of trade openness on China's income distribution, by adding technological learning into neo-classical trade model we analyzed two approaches of trade openness influenced income distribution: Samuelson-Stolper effect and technological advances effect In addition, in this chapter we also use urban-rural income gap to measure China's income distribution, and using both dynamic panel data and panel co-integration technique to carry empirical research, we find there exist an U-shape influence of trade openness on China's urban-rural income gap. Chapter seven sum up the whole content in this paper and put forward the corresponding policy implications.
引文
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