摘要
本文将以中、美、越三个国际关系的民族国家行为体为研究对象,通过分析中、美、越三国之间的互动关系,从而梳理出三边关系发展脉络。就中越双边关系论,从中越关系近年来发展历程来看,总体发展较为平稳,由于在安全上缺乏互信、核心利益争端和其他结构性矛盾,中越关系发展仍然存在不确定性。在三边关系上,越南以“双面下注”应对中美两个大国关系,或“以美制华”或“以华制美”形成越南较为稳定的策略,而在中越南海争端升级的语境下,越美联合虽未固化但趋势日益凸显。随着南海问题持续升温,越南显然无力“单独叫板”中国,因此其试图命名区域外大国卷入南海争端,正成为越南近期的重点,而作为全球霸权美国的支持更是“重中之重”。而随着中国崛起,美国对华又实行合作加遏制的双重战略,这样越美各取所需。在中美越三边关系中,形成了一种越美区域性和阶段性地合作对华的两方博弈。无政府社会的国家利益博弈造成的互信缺失,越美冷战式“零和”思维,成了中、美、越三边良性互动缺乏的局面,这种局面表面上看每一方都有机可乘并可获得相对收益但实际上对三方都不利,这正是本文选题基本语境。中国政府宣布走和平发展的道路,而未来十年是中国重要的战略机遇期,以合作求谋发展是中国和一项长期对外政策。在如何管理好这种三边关系?我认为通过三方之间建立起一种良性互动而非零和博弈关系就是最好的答案,通过建立起良好对中美关系和中越关系,对于维护中国国家利益,坚持睦邻外交政策思想,保证重要战略机遇期和平发展环境以及积极推动中国-东盟区域经济一体化建设具有重要意义。
本文的基本思路是从三个个双边关系及一个三边关系来分析中、美、越三边互动关系。至于中美这个双边关系,因为中美关系既非本人之研究范围,又因中美关系太广、太大、太重要,因篇幅有限,无法面面俱到,只是在三边互动关系中论及中中美关系的利益一些基本原则和问题及利益的趋同与趋异。本文是运用国际关系的基本理论基础来对探讨现实国际关系问题,因此从文章的架构上,不过多的去对理论问题进行纠缠,而只是以理论来指导现实问题的研究。
全文共分六个主要部分,包括导论部分及其他五章,重点为第五章。本文第一章主要概述了越南的地缘及其对外政策,并分析了越南与几个重要的区域大国互动关系,从越南与这些大国的互动关系之中变化中,我以为越南与中美两个大国关系是其与大国关系中最为重要的两个双边关系,这也是本论题的一个立论依据。第二章主要介绍了中越自从关系正常化以来到全面战略伙伴关系之后互动关系,对双方全面合作的机制、领域和成果进行简要回顾,并对影响双方互动关系的变量进行了分析。第三章分析了越美之间互动模式变迁-从对抗到合作是其主要特征,其间论及越美两国之间历史和现实的挑战,超越双边关系发展的战略考量,包括其中国因素的考虑。第四章以南海问题为视角,以南海局势持续升级为背景,分析中、美、越围绕南海问题的博弈与互动,分述中、美、越对南海问题的原则立场及采取的策略。第五章重点探讨中、越、美三边互动模式,是全文的中心所在,以三边关系的非对称性为基点探讨三边互动关系,在对非对称性分析中,既用了经济、军事和地理等相关的“硬权力”变量来进行不完全量化对比分析,也采用“软权力”对三边关系的非对称性进行进一步的比对阐述。本文认为“刺激-反应”式互动是三方皆输的结果,最好的一种模式应是三边良性互动。如何构建良性互动?本文就一些理论先异和现实基础、互动的必要性和前提、规范和机制、互动的范围等一些发表了一些个人愚见,最后作者以为良性互动是一种相互依存条件下“合作共赢”的必然选择。
This Dissertation will study on the interactions among three nationstate actors-China,the U.S.and Viet Nam in the international relations.Generally,TheSino-Vietnamese bilateral relations has been developed both rapidly and broadly sincenormalization in the year of1991.Nevertheless,in virtue of lacking ofmutual-confidence and overlapping claims over the South China Sea,There remains acertain of uncertainty in the future Sino-Vietnamese relations.Influenced somewhat bythe “Zero-sum”thought and divergent national interests with China,Viet Nam and theU.S.are practicing “hedgeing”strategy to cope with so-called“China threat”.Viet Nam“lures” U.S.to counterbalance China’s influence in its illegal fight for the South ChinaSea.With the China’s rise,U.S.practises a dual strategy of “Engagement”and“Containment”,It entices Vietnam to hedge against China’s soft power expansiontoward the Southeast Asia.
This kind of situation of malignant trilateral interactions among China,U.S.andVietnam will be harmful to each respective party.This is the real context why I chooseand pick this topic as my domain of study.
The Chinese government has long being declared to follow the policy of“peaceful rise”in its future national development.It is imperative that China shape akind of ‘win-win-win’style of interactions among these three nation states and It is inthe interest of China’s long-term strategy of “Building a peaceful internationalsituation for economic development and social prosperity”.This dissertation willfocus the change of patter of interaction between Viet Nam and U.S.,it will also sumup the complete strategic partnership between China and Vietnam.A review of recentSino-American relationship is also necessary concerning the paper.
The paper will refer to basic international theories to analyze the related issuesemerging in the three bilateral and one trilateral interactions instead of interpolatingthese theories.
As to the frame of this pater,It is divided into six parts--Introduction to the paperand other five chapters,the5thchapter is the main part of the whole paper.The1th chapter discusses the geopolitical importance of Viet Nam and its foreign policychanges since the innovation and opening to the outside world,as well as itsinteractions with three regional powers,i.e.Russia,Japan and India.The2thchaptercenters on the cooperation between China and Vietnam since normalization,it alsoanalyzes the invariables to hamper Sino-Vietnamese interactios since the building ofcomplete bilateral strategic Sino-Vietnamese partnership.The3thchapter will makeretrospections on the change of the interaction pattern between the U.S.and VN whichcharacterizes transformation from confrontation to co-operation.The relatons betweenU.S.and VN are confronted with a combination of historic and present challenges,andthe increasing warming-up of bilateral relations have the calculus over Chineseelement.The4thchapter reviews the dispute between China and Viet Nam since2007,and the tension in the South China Sea after the assertive measures taken by therespective claimants.This chapter also make an analysis of the motives and strategiesof the U.S.after its hign-profile intervention into the region.The last Chapter is todetail on the negative effects of the Zero-sum game among three parties,the authorholds that it’s neccessary to shape a benign pattern of interactions among threeparties.Lastly the paper will put forward norms and institutions,preconditions to formthis kind of interaction.
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567越南马来西亚等国在南海动作频频挑起主权争端-主权[EB/OL]..
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