博弈与互动：后冷战时期中、美、越三边关系研究
摘要
本文将以中、美、越三个国际关系的民族国家行为体为研究对象，通过分析中、美、越三国之间的互动关系，从而梳理出三边关系发展脉络。就中越双边关系论，从中越关系近年来发展历程来看，总体发展较为平稳，由于在安全上缺乏互信、核心利益争端和其他结构性矛盾，中越关系发展仍然存在不确定性。在三边关系上，越南以“双面下注”应对中美两个大国关系，或“以美制华”或“以华制美”形成越南较为稳定的策略，而在中越南海争端升级的语境下，越美联合虽未固化但趋势日益凸显。随着南海问题持续升温，越南显然无力“单独叫板”中国，因此其试图命名区域外大国卷入南海争端，正成为越南近期的重点，而作为全球霸权美国的支持更是“重中之重”。而随着中国崛起，美国对华又实行合作加遏制的双重战略，这样越美各取所需。在中美越三边关系中，形成了一种越美区域性和阶段性地合作对华的两方博弈。无政府社会的国家利益博弈造成的互信缺失，越美冷战式“零和”思维，成了中、美、越三边良性互动缺乏的局面，这种局面表面上看每一方都有机可乘并可获得相对收益但实际上对三方都不利，这正是本文选题基本语境。中国政府宣布走和平发展的道路，而未来十年是中国重要的战略机遇期，以合作求谋发展是中国和一项长期对外政策。在如何管理好这种三边关系？我认为通过三方之间建立起一种良性互动而非零和博弈关系就是最好的答案，通过建立起良好对中美关系和中越关系，对于维护中国国家利益，坚持睦邻外交政策思想，保证重要战略机遇期和平发展环境以及积极推动中国-东盟区域经济一体化建设具有重要意义。
本文的基本思路是从三个个双边关系及一个三边关系来分析中、美、越三边互动关系。至于中美这个双边关系，因为中美关系既非本人之研究范围，又因中美关系太广、太大、太重要，因篇幅有限，无法面面俱到，只是在三边互动关系中论及中中美关系的利益一些基本原则和问题及利益的趋同与趋异。本文是运用国际关系的基本理论基础来对探讨现实国际关系问题，因此从文章的架构上，不过多的去对理论问题进行纠缠，而只是以理论来指导现实问题的研究。
全文共分六个主要部分，包括导论部分及其他五章，重点为第五章。本文第一章主要概述了越南的地缘及其对外政策，并分析了越南与几个重要的区域大国互动关系，从越南与这些大国的互动关系之中变化中，我以为越南与中美两个大国关系是其与大国关系中最为重要的两个双边关系，这也是本论题的一个立论依据。第二章主要介绍了中越自从关系正常化以来到全面战略伙伴关系之后互动关系，对双方全面合作的机制、领域和成果进行简要回顾，并对影响双方互动关系的变量进行了分析。第三章分析了越美之间互动模式变迁－从对抗到合作是其主要特征，其间论及越美两国之间历史和现实的挑战，超越双边关系发展的战略考量，包括其中国因素的考虑。第四章以南海问题为视角，以南海局势持续升级为背景，分析中、美、越围绕南海问题的博弈与互动，分述中、美、越对南海问题的原则立场及采取的策略。第五章重点探讨中、越、美三边互动模式，是全文的中心所在，以三边关系的非对称性为基点探讨三边互动关系，在对非对称性分析中，既用了经济、军事和地理等相关的“硬权力”变量来进行不完全量化对比分析，也采用“软权力”对三边关系的非对称性进行进一步的比对阐述。本文认为“刺激-反应”式互动是三方皆输的结果，最好的一种模式应是三边良性互动。如何构建良性互动？本文就一些理论先异和现实基础、互动的必要性和前提、规范和机制、互动的范围等一些发表了一些个人愚见，最后作者以为良性互动是一种相互依存条件下“合作共赢”的必然选择。
This Dissertation will study on the interactions among three nationstate actors-China,the U.S.and Viet Nam in the international relations.Generally,TheSino-Vietnamese bilateral relations has been developed both rapidly and broadly sincenormalization in the year of1991.Nevertheless,in virtue of lacking ofmutual-confidence and overlapping claims over the South China Sea,There remains acertain of uncertainty in the future Sino-Vietnamese relations.Influenced somewhat bythe “Zero-sum”thought and divergent national interests with China,Viet Nam and theU.S.are practicing “hedgeing”strategy to cope with so-called“China threat”.Viet Nam“lures” U.S.to counterbalance China’s influence in its illegal fight for the South ChinaSea.With the China’s rise,U.S.practises a dual strategy of “Engagement”and“Containment”,It entices Vietnam to hedge against China’s soft power expansiontoward the Southeast Asia.
This kind of situation of malignant trilateral interactions among China,U.S.andVietnam will be harmful to each respective party.This is the real context why I chooseand pick this topic as my domain of study.
The Chinese government has long being declared to follow the policy of“peaceful rise”in its future national development.It is imperative that China shape akind of ‘win-win-win’style of interactions among these three nation states and It is inthe interest of China’s long-term strategy of “Building a peaceful internationalsituation for economic development and social prosperity”.This dissertation willfocus the change of patter of interaction between Viet Nam and U.S.,it will also sumup the complete strategic partnership between China and Vietnam.A review of recentSino-American relationship is also necessary concerning the paper.
The paper will refer to basic international theories to analyze the related issuesemerging in the three bilateral and one trilateral interactions instead of interpolatingthese theories.
As to the frame of this pater,It is divided into six parts--Introduction to the paperand other five chapters,the5thchapter is the main part of the whole paper.The1th chapter discusses the geopolitical importance of Viet Nam and its foreign policychanges since the innovation and opening to the outside world,as well as itsinteractions with three regional powers,i.e.Russia,Japan and India.The2thchaptercenters on the cooperation between China and Vietnam since normalization,it alsoanalyzes the invariables to hamper Sino-Vietnamese interactios since the building ofcomplete bilateral strategic Sino-Vietnamese partnership.The3thchapter will makeretrospections on the change of the interaction pattern between the U.S.and VN whichcharacterizes transformation from confrontation to co-operation.The relatons betweenU.S.and VN are confronted with a combination of historic and present challenges,andthe increasing warming-up of bilateral relations have the calculus over Chineseelement.The4thchapter reviews the dispute between China and Viet Nam since2007,and the tension in the South China Sea after the assertive measures taken by therespective claimants.This chapter also make an analysis of the motives and strategiesof the U.S.after its hign-profile intervention into the region.The last Chapter is todetail on the negative effects of the Zero-sum game among three parties,the authorholds that it’s neccessary to shape a benign pattern of interactions among threeparties.Lastly the paper will put forward norms and institutions,preconditions to formthis kind of interaction.
本文的基本思路是从三个个双边关系及一个三边关系来分析中、美、越三边互动关系。至于中美这个双边关系，因为中美关系既非本人之研究范围，又因中美关系太广、太大、太重要，因篇幅有限，无法面面俱到，只是在三边互动关系中论及中中美关系的利益一些基本原则和问题及利益的趋同与趋异。本文是运用国际关系的基本理论基础来对探讨现实国际关系问题，因此从文章的架构上，不过多的去对理论问题进行纠缠，而只是以理论来指导现实问题的研究。
全文共分六个主要部分，包括导论部分及其他五章，重点为第五章。本文第一章主要概述了越南的地缘及其对外政策，并分析了越南与几个重要的区域大国互动关系，从越南与这些大国的互动关系之中变化中，我以为越南与中美两个大国关系是其与大国关系中最为重要的两个双边关系，这也是本论题的一个立论依据。第二章主要介绍了中越自从关系正常化以来到全面战略伙伴关系之后互动关系，对双方全面合作的机制、领域和成果进行简要回顾，并对影响双方互动关系的变量进行了分析。第三章分析了越美之间互动模式变迁－从对抗到合作是其主要特征，其间论及越美两国之间历史和现实的挑战，超越双边关系发展的战略考量，包括其中国因素的考虑。第四章以南海问题为视角，以南海局势持续升级为背景，分析中、美、越围绕南海问题的博弈与互动，分述中、美、越对南海问题的原则立场及采取的策略。第五章重点探讨中、越、美三边互动模式，是全文的中心所在，以三边关系的非对称性为基点探讨三边互动关系，在对非对称性分析中，既用了经济、军事和地理等相关的“硬权力”变量来进行不完全量化对比分析，也采用“软权力”对三边关系的非对称性进行进一步的比对阐述。本文认为“刺激-反应”式互动是三方皆输的结果，最好的一种模式应是三边良性互动。如何构建良性互动？本文就一些理论先异和现实基础、互动的必要性和前提、规范和机制、互动的范围等一些发表了一些个人愚见，最后作者以为良性互动是一种相互依存条件下“合作共赢”的必然选择。
This Dissertation will study on the interactions among three nationstate actors-China,the U.S.and Viet Nam in the international relations.Generally,TheSino-Vietnamese bilateral relations has been developed both rapidly and broadly sincenormalization in the year of1991.Nevertheless,in virtue of lacking ofmutual-confidence and overlapping claims over the South China Sea,There remains acertain of uncertainty in the future Sino-Vietnamese relations.Influenced somewhat bythe “Zero-sum”thought and divergent national interests with China,Viet Nam and theU.S.are practicing “hedgeing”strategy to cope with so-called“China threat”.Viet Nam“lures” U.S.to counterbalance China’s influence in its illegal fight for the South ChinaSea.With the China’s rise,U.S.practises a dual strategy of “Engagement”and“Containment”,It entices Vietnam to hedge against China’s soft power expansiontoward the Southeast Asia.
This kind of situation of malignant trilateral interactions among China,U.S.andVietnam will be harmful to each respective party.This is the real context why I chooseand pick this topic as my domain of study.
The Chinese government has long being declared to follow the policy of“peaceful rise”in its future national development.It is imperative that China shape akind of ‘win-win-win’style of interactions among these three nation states and It is inthe interest of China’s long-term strategy of “Building a peaceful internationalsituation for economic development and social prosperity”.This dissertation willfocus the change of patter of interaction between Viet Nam and U.S.,it will also sumup the complete strategic partnership between China and Vietnam.A review of recentSino-American relationship is also necessary concerning the paper.
The paper will refer to basic international theories to analyze the related issuesemerging in the three bilateral and one trilateral interactions instead of interpolatingthese theories.
As to the frame of this pater,It is divided into six parts--Introduction to the paperand other five chapters,the5thchapter is the main part of the whole paper.The1th chapter discusses the geopolitical importance of Viet Nam and its foreign policychanges since the innovation and opening to the outside world,as well as itsinteractions with three regional powers,i.e.Russia,Japan and India.The2thchaptercenters on the cooperation between China and Vietnam since normalization,it alsoanalyzes the invariables to hamper Sino-Vietnamese interactios since the building ofcomplete bilateral strategic Sino-Vietnamese partnership.The3thchapter will makeretrospections on the change of the interaction pattern between the U.S.and VN whichcharacterizes transformation from confrontation to co-operation.The relatons betweenU.S.and VN are confronted with a combination of historic and present challenges,andthe increasing warming-up of bilateral relations have the calculus over Chineseelement.The4thchapter reviews the dispute between China and Viet Nam since2007,and the tension in the South China Sea after the assertive measures taken by therespective claimants.This chapter also make an analysis of the motives and strategiesof the U.S.after its hign-profile intervention into the region.The last Chapter is todetail on the negative effects of the Zero-sum game among three parties,the authorholds that it’s neccessary to shape a benign pattern of interactions among threeparties.Lastly the paper will put forward norms and institutions,preconditions to formthis kind of interaction.
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165杨曼苏.国际关系基本理论导读[M].北京:中国社科出版社，2001（159）.
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183参见环球时报,2011-10-13.Vietnam, Germany establish strategic partnership[EB/OL].Viet Nam News Agency,2011-10-12.
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247日本指导东南亚打海盗承认可牵制中国南海活动[EB/OL].新华社,2011-07-26.
248越日国防部长谈南沙领土争端意在牵制中国[EB/OL].人民日报-国际频道》2011-10-25.
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250日本挑起事端强夺中国南海油气或与菲律宾联手[EB/OL].人民日报-人民日报,2011-09-20.孙冉.日菲发表联合声明称解决南海问题需遵国际准则[EB/OL].中国新闻网.菲日签联合声明重申在南海拥有所谓重大利益[EB/OL].环球时报,2011-09-28.日本与菲律宾领导人举行会谈强化战略伙伴关系[EB/OL].中国新闻网,2011-09-27.
251谢宏宇.专家日本插手南海事务增加钓鱼岛问题谈判筹码[N/OL].新民晚报,2011-09-13.
252陈小茹.越南菲律宾多面出击应对中国成立三沙市[N].中国青年报,2012-07-27.
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254日本前外相松本刚明的回答国会质询时进行的国会答辩。参见：日本担心南海问题波及尖阁群岛[EB/OL].朝日新闻，2011-09-04.转引自:日本担心南海‘怪规则’波及东海[N].人民日报,2011-09-05.
255日本东盟联手南海遏华态势渐显[EB/OL].新华社,2011-09-30.日媒称日本将全面介入南海主权问题[EB/OL].中国新闻网,2011-10-09.
256日本将中日争端提交联合国争取美越菲三国支持[N].环球时报.2012-09-17.
257唐天日.日本东南亚外交的新变化[J].瞭望新闻周刊,1997-04(45).
258日本越南就合作开发稀土进行磋商[N].人民日报,2011-10-09.
259在越南莱州省，稀土主要分布在峰土县北浓谢（bac nam xe）、南浓谢和三堂县东包。东包矿区的总面积为11平方公里，总储量达500万吨，分为F3型和F7型矿种。参见：日本和越南签署越南最大稀土矿区
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269Tuyen Bo Chung Viet Nam-Lien Bang Nga[N].Bao Lao Dong,2008-10-30.
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271Nga coi Trong Vi Tri Viet Nam Trong Chien Luoc Chau A-TBD[EB/OL].VNS,2008-10-27.
272Chu Tich Quoc Hoi Nguyen Phu Trong Hoi Dam Voi Chu Tich Duma Quoc Gia Va Chu Tich Hoi Dong LBNga[N/OL].Bao Nhan Dan,2009-04-24.
273张光政.俄借力密切与东盟关系(国际视点)[N].人民日报,2009-07-27.
274俄将向越南军队提供装备与技术帮建核电站[N].环球时报,2009-12-16.
275Viet Nam La Uu Tien Truyen Thong Cua Nga O Chau A-Thai Binh Duong[N/OL].Dang Cong San Viet,2010-01-25.
276普京总理肯定俄罗斯愿意与越南继续发展战略合作伙伴关系[N].越南共产党报,2010-01-31.
277越俄要审视各个优先合作项目[N].越南共产党报,2009-10-21.
278卢敬利.俄将向越南军队提供装备与技术帮建核电站[EB/OL].环球时报,2009-12-16.
280Huy Nam.Chu Tich Nuoc Roi Nga Len Duong Tham Mong CO[EB/OL].Tin Tong Hop,http://tintonghop.info/news/14/22/3141920/.
281俄欲借力密切与东盟关系(国际视点)[N].人民日报,2009-07-27.
282An Huy.Nga Cho Viet Nam Vay9Ty USD Lam Dien Hat Nhan[N].Thoi Bao Kinh Te Viet Nam,2011-11-23.
283马晋强主编.当代东南亚国际关系[M].世界知识出版社，2000-02(285).
286Vietnam’s Russian Restocking[N/OL].Defense Industry Daily,2011-10-27.
287俄罗斯越南签署能源和军事领域系列重要协议[E/OL].环球时报,2009-12-16.
288越南将成为俄罗斯武器主要出口国”[E/OL].人民日报,2009-05-15.
289钟娅.外媒：越南外长访俄标志两国军事合作升温[EB/OL].江苏新闻网军事消息/俄新网报道,2008-09-17.
290俄军工加速向越南交付基洛级潜艇一年一艘[E/OL].新华社,2009-12-23.
291俄智库称2009年越南成俄罗斯最大武器进口国[E/OL].新华社，2010-01-25.另据俄罗斯国际文文电讯社2009年11月9日援引一位不愿透露姓国防部官员的话说,该交易额为20亿美元，以后第年交付一艘。
292越南采购第2批俄罗斯“猎豹”型护卫舰[EB/OL].国防科技信息网,2011-12-8.
293越南大量购俄制武器或超中印成第一采购方[N].环球时报,2009-12-07.
295盛世良.梅德韦杰夫向东看[N].国际先驱导报,2008-05-23.
296卢敬利.综述：俄罗斯新的对外政策构想[EB/OL].新华社,2008-07-16.
297Ha My Huong.Quan he Viet Nam-Lien Bang Nga qua60nam thang tram cua lich su[J/OL].TAP CHI CONG SAN,2010-03.
298外媒称俄国才是中国在南海的对手[N].羊城晚报,2011-08-17.
299Richard Weitz.Moscow’s Asian Nuclear Campaign[EB/OL].The Diplomat,2010-11-02.
300越南的Su-27和Su-30MK2其航程可以抵达南海群岛附近水域，而这是中国岸基战斗机攻击范围之外。
305外媒：越购买俄制潜艇与中国争夺南海主权[N].环球时报,2009-12-18.
306Al Labita. Russian wrinkle in the South China Sea[N]. Asia Times,2010-10-22.
307俄海军司令称俄拟在越古塞建海军基地[N].环球时报，2012-07-27.
308Tuyen Bo Chung Viet Nam-Lien Bang Nga[N/OL].Bao Moi,2008-10-29.
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412Owen Bennett-Jones, Jeff Phillips.Clinton's Vietnam visit[EB/OL].BBC News,2000-11-06.
413The full text of US President Bill Clinton's speech on Friday at Hanoi National University[EB/OL].AFP,2000-11-07.Remarks at Vietnam National University in Ha Noi,Viet Nam[R/OL].2000-11-17.Administration of William J.Clinton,2000/Nov.17,(2887-2891).http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/WCPD-2000-11-20/pdf/WCPD-2000-11-20-Pg2887.pdf.
414Steve Park, Phan Vinh Quang and Nguyen Ngoc Anh,Has the U.S.-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement Led toHigher FDI into Vietnam?.International Applied Economics[J/OL],2(2).2002-09(199-233).http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1384/.
415Nguyen van long.The bilateral trade agreement:negotiations,commitments,and implementations issues”
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416Jonathan Peterson.U.S., Vietnam Enter a New Era of Relations”[N].Los Angelos Times,2000-07-14.
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426Doi Thoai Chinh Tri-An Ninh-Quoc PhongViet-My.Thoi Bao Kinh Te VN,2011-06-18.
427越美双边关系更上一层楼[N].越南共产党报,2011-07-23.
428Viet Nam Coi Hoa Ky La Doi Tac Chien Luoc Hang Dau[N/OL].Thoi Bao Kinh Te VN,2011-08-24.
429Phat Bieu Cua Bo Troung Pham Binh Minh Tai Hoi Dong Doi Ngoai Cua Hoa Ky[EB/OL].New York,2011-09-27.http://www.mofa.gov.vn/vi/cs_doingoai/pbld/ns111011124730#fe8ST6cbkHx6.
430姬高升.美军重返越南的战略影响[J].国际展望,2000-07.
431Jorn Dosch&Ta Minh Tuan.Recent Changes in VN’s Foreign Policy.in RETHINHKING VIETNAM,ed.byDuncan Mccargo,Routelege Curzon Press[M],2003(206).
432US Defense Secretary impressed with Vietnamese economy and people[EB/OL].Viet Nam NetBridge,2006-06-06.
433曹筱阳.9.11事件后美国在东南亚的军事存在及其影响[J].当代亚太.2006-3(26).
434Viet Nam-U.S.Dialogue on Political,Security,National Defense,Humanitarian Co-operation Issues[N/OL].ThanhNien News.http://www.vietnamembassy-usa.org/relations/.
435Viet Nam-U.S. Political,Security,National Defense Dialogue Opens[EB/OL].http://www.vietnamembassy-usa.org/relations/.
473Vietnam not seeking military alliance wtih U.S.[N].China Daily,2010-08-26.
474Le Hong Nhat.Vietnam in China’s game in the East Sea[EB/OL].Viet Nam Net Bridge,2011-07-24.
475Phil Radford.Big boat, little punch in South China Sea[N].Asia Times,2011-08-17.
476中国-东盟年鉴2011.线装书局[M],2011-09(58).
477Jennifer Chen.Vietnam’s open port policy: strategy for keeping China at bay’[R/OL].CSIS, Washington D.C.2011-03-01http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/03/01/vietnams-open-port-policy-strategy-for-keeping-china-at-bay/.
478安德鲁.内森，罗伯特.罗斯.长城与空城计:中国对安全的寻求[M].新华出版社,1997-09(113).//柯雄等译.
479侯鹤祥.越南还会出租金兰湾吗？[J].瞭望新闻周刊,2002-04-15(16).
480吴心伯.美国与东亚一体化[J].国际问题研究,2007-05(50).
481Richard Weitz.Balancing China Through Vietnam[EB/OL].http://www.sldinfo.com/?p=14664.
482Jason Folkmanis.U.S., Vietnam Seek to Limit China, Keep Power Balance.The Bloomberg News,2009-8-28.
483Little Jr, John W..Vietnam in U.S. Foreign Policy: An Association for the Strategic Balance in Southeast[D],
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484Jim Watson.From Vietnam,Pentagon chief sends China message that Washington will aid Asia Pacificallies[EB/OL].Associated Press,2012-06-03.
485Carlyle A.Thayer.Vietnam's Defensive Diplomacy[N].The Wall Street Journal,2010-08-19.
486Jason Folkmanis.U.S., Vietnam Seek to Limit China, Keep Power Balance[EB/OL].The Bloomberg News,2009-08-28.
487Manyin,Mark,U.S.-Vietnam Relations in2009:Current Issues and Implications for U.S. Policy[R/OL], CRSReport for Congress; Congressional Research Service7-5700,www.crs.gov,R40208.2009-07-29.
488Carlyle A. Thayer.Upholding State Sovereignty Through Global Integration:The Remaking of VietnameseNational Security Policy[EB/OL]. http://viet-studies.info/kinhte/Thayer_Remaking_Security_Policy.pdf.
489Ban tu tuong-van hao TW:Tai Lieu Hoc Tap Nhgi Quyet Hoi Nghi Lan Thu8Ban Chap Hanh Trung Uong Khoa
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490Mark E.Manyin.U.S.Assistance to Vietnam.CRS Report for Congress[R/OL].Order Code RL32636.http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/crs/rl32636.pdf.
491Frederick Brown Hoang Anh Tuan.Repproachment Between Vietnam and the United States[C].Contemporary
542越南特使访华中越宣布将和平解决海上争议[EB/OL].新华社,2011-06-26.
550张海文.中越南海协议贵在诚意重在落实[N].环球时报,2011-10-14.
551Hoang Sa,Truong Sa La cua Viet Nam[M].Nha Xuat Ban Tre(VN),2009-04.
552文注：中国之南海海域，越方称“东海”；中国之南沙和西沙群岛，越方称“黄沙”与“长沙”。
553向外交部移交越南对黄沙群岛主权的有关资料[N].越南共产党报,2009-09-16.
554献赠肯定越南对黄沙群岛主权的奏折[N].越南共产党报,2009-12-28.
555Roberto Tofani.Hardened lines in the South China Sea[N]. Asia Times,2012-07-04.
556Ta Quang Ngoc.De VN Som Tro Thanh Mot Quoc Gia Manh Ve Bien[J].Tap Chi Cong San,2007-13.
557发表2009年国防白皮书：越南有信心捍卫国家主权独立和领土完整[N].越南共产党报,2009-12-09.
558Luat Bien Viet Nam2012[EB/OL].Thu Vien Phap Luat,2012-06-21.http://thuvienphapluat.vn/archive/Luat-bien-Viet-Nam-2012-vb143494.aspx
559越南立法称西沙南沙归其管辖[EB/OL].中国新闻网，2012-06-21.
560越南巨资扩充海军意在南海[N].中国国防报，2009-05-05.
561越南巨资扩充海军意在南海[N].中国国防报，2009-05-05.
562俄越军事合作参见：第一章第四节之“三”。
563越南加速武器装备现代化首购西方两栖巡逻机[N].世界新闻报,2010-05-19.
564越南海军称2015年打造强大远洋护航作战能力［EB/OL］.新浪网,2008-01-11.
565媒体称越南建南沙舰队欲与中国争夺南海控制权[N].环球时报，2012-05-14.
566越南马来西亚等国在南海动作频频挑起主权争端[EB/OL].
567越南马来西亚等国在南海动作频频挑起主权争端-主权[EB/OL]..
568东南亚大事记[J].东南亚纵横,2009-05(112).
586A conversation with Foreign Minister Pham Binh Minh (Part II)[EB/OL]..VN Net Bridge,2011-10-24.
587South China Sea disputes: China, other claimants and the US[EB/OL]..VN Net Bridge,2011-07-26.
588Tran Truong Thuy.New round of tension[EB/OL].VN Net Bridge,2011-07-30.
589Nguyen ChinhTam.East Sea: Why China’s ‘order’ is problematic?[EB/OL].VN NetBridge,2011-08-17.
629Politics Among Nations:The Struggle for Power and Peace.Sixth Edition[M].Hans J.Morgenthau,Revised byKenneth W.Thompson.McGraw-Hill,Inc.(185、243、291).
630黄梦哲.越印签南海合同刺激中国[EB/OL].新华社,2011-10-14.
631由美国国防部和国务院联合发布的一九九五年《东亚战略评估报告》仅限于：维持南海作为国际航道并对各国开放并鼓励相国声索国寻求和平解决争端。美国塑造的一个形象是一个中立的和平维持者因为这正是美国利益要求之所在。See:ASEAN and the South China Sea:Asecurity framework undersiege[C].www.csis.org.
632Mark Lander.U.S. Enters Disputer in the South China Sea[N].International Herald Tribune,2010-07-24/25.
633First Plenary Session-Dr Robert Gates,The Shangri-La Dialogue,Singapore.2011-06-03.
634First Plenary Session-Dr Robert Gates,The Shangri-La Dialogue,Singapore.2011-06-03.
640Mark Lander.U.S. Enters Disputer in the South China Sea[N].International Herald Tribune,2010-07-24/25.
641Chietigj Bajpaee. Broadsides sink South China Sea peace[N/OL]. Asia Times,2012-02-23.
642希拉里《美国的太平洋世纪》透视[EB/OL].新华社,2011-10-18.
643Douglas H. Paal. Why the South China Sea is not a Sudetenland Moment [N].Asia Times,2012-08-18.
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673Brantly Womack.China and VietnamThe Politics of Asymmetry[M],Cambridge University Press,2006-04.
674倪世雄,金应忠等编著.当代西方国际关系理论[M.复旦大学出版社.2001(268).
6792050年预测越南GDP总量约为4440亿美元，人均约为4440美元,人口约达到1亿。http://www.businessinsider.com/these-economies-will-dominate-the-world-in-2050-2012-1#41-vietnam-10.
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2.越南外交部:http://www.mofa.gov.vn/vi/；
3.越南国家统计总局:http://www.gso.gov.vn/Default.aspx?tabid=217.
4.越南经济时报:http://vneconomy.vn/
5.越南共产党.http://www.cpv.org.vn/cpv/index_c.html；
6.越南之声.http://vovnews.vn
7.越南政府央门户网:http://www.chinhphu.vn/
8.越共电子报:http://www.cpv.org.vn/cpv/index.html#492wP4HPWuKD
9.越通社官网.:http://news.vnanet.vn/webdichvu/vi-VN/1/Default.aspx
10.越南外交部网站.http://www.mofa.gov.vn/vi/
11.越南人民报.:http://www.nhandan.com.vn/
12.越南经济时报http://vneconomy.vn/
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182Richard Pearson.The Limits to US-Vietnam Ties[J/OL].The Diplomat,2011-06-16.http://the-diplomat.com/2011/06/16/the-limits-to-us-vietnam-ties/.
183参见环球时报,2011-10-13.Vietnam, Germany establish strategic partnership[EB/OL].Viet Nam News Agency,2011-10-12.
184Donald E.Weatherbee with Ralf Emmers,Mari Pangestu and Leonard Sebastian.International Relations in SouthEast Asia:the Struggle for Autonomy[M].Rowan and Littlefield Publishing,Inc.2005(41-50).
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186Donald E.Weatherbee with Ralf Emmers,Mari Pangestu and Leonard Sebastian.International Relations in SouthEast Asia:the Struggle for Autonomy[M].Rowan and Littlefield Publishing,Inc.2005(43).
244Vietnam-Japan issue joint statement[EB/OL].VN Net Bridge,2011-11-01.
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246新华社2004年7月26日载《朝日新闻》文章“日增加对越ODA援助意在牵制中国”。转引自许梅.日本与越南的经贸合作及日越关系的发展[J].当代亚太,2006-03(42).
247日本指导东南亚打海盗承认可牵制中国南海活动[EB/OL].新华社,2011-07-26.
248越日国防部长谈南沙领土争端意在牵制中国[EB/OL].人民日报-国际频道》2011-10-25.
249谢宏宇.专家日本插手南海事务增加钓鱼岛问题谈判筹码[N/OL].新民晚报,2011-09-13.
250日本挑起事端强夺中国南海油气或与菲律宾联手[EB/OL].人民日报-人民日报,2011-09-20.孙冉.日菲发表联合声明称解决南海问题需遵国际准则[EB/OL].中国新闻网.菲日签联合声明重申在南海拥有所谓重大利益[EB/OL].环球时报,2011-09-28.日本与菲律宾领导人举行会谈强化战略伙伴关系[EB/OL].中国新闻网,2011-09-27.
251谢宏宇.专家日本插手南海事务增加钓鱼岛问题谈判筹码[N/OL].新民晚报,2011-09-13.
252陈小茹.越南菲律宾多面出击应对中国成立三沙市[N].中国青年报,2012-07-27.
253李刚等.专家：日本插手南海意在提醒中国别在钓鱼岛生事[N].人民日报,2011-09-23.
254日本前外相松本刚明的回答国会质询时进行的国会答辩。参见：日本担心南海问题波及尖阁群岛[EB/OL].朝日新闻，2011-09-04.转引自:日本担心南海‘怪规则’波及东海[N].人民日报,2011-09-05.
255日本东盟联手南海遏华态势渐显[EB/OL].新华社,2011-09-30.日媒称日本将全面介入南海主权问题[EB/OL].中国新闻网,2011-10-09.
256日本将中日争端提交联合国争取美越菲三国支持[N].环球时报.2012-09-17.
257唐天日.日本东南亚外交的新变化[J].瞭望新闻周刊,1997-04(45).
258日本越南就合作开发稀土进行磋商[N].人民日报,2011-10-09.
259在越南莱州省，稀土主要分布在峰土县北浓谢（bac nam xe）、南浓谢和三堂县东包。东包矿区的总面积为11平方公里，总储量达500万吨，分为F3型和F7型矿种。参见：日本和越南签署越南最大稀土矿区
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268俄罗斯对外政策新构想重点发展与中国关系[EB/OL].星岛环球网,2008-07-16.
269Tuyen Bo Chung Viet Nam-Lien Bang Nga[N].Bao Lao Dong,2008-10-30.
270古小松.在高通胀中发展-2008年越南经济形势回顾与2009年预测[J].东南亚纵横,2009-02.
271Nga coi Trong Vi Tri Viet Nam Trong Chien Luoc Chau A-TBD[EB/OL].VNS,2008-10-27.
272Chu Tich Quoc Hoi Nguyen Phu Trong Hoi Dam Voi Chu Tich Duma Quoc Gia Va Chu Tich Hoi Dong LBNga[N/OL].Bao Nhan Dan,2009-04-24.
273张光政.俄借力密切与东盟关系(国际视点)[N].人民日报,2009-07-27.
274俄将向越南军队提供装备与技术帮建核电站[N].环球时报,2009-12-16.
275Viet Nam La Uu Tien Truyen Thong Cua Nga O Chau A-Thai Binh Duong[N/OL].Dang Cong San Viet,2010-01-25.
276普京总理肯定俄罗斯愿意与越南继续发展战略合作伙伴关系[N].越南共产党报,2010-01-31.
277越俄要审视各个优先合作项目[N].越南共产党报,2009-10-21.
278卢敬利.俄将向越南军队提供装备与技术帮建核电站[EB/OL].环球时报,2009-12-16.
280Huy Nam.Chu Tich Nuoc Roi Nga Len Duong Tham Mong CO[EB/OL].Tin Tong Hop,http://tintonghop.info/news/14/22/3141920/.
281俄欲借力密切与东盟关系(国际视点)[N].人民日报,2009-07-27.
282An Huy.Nga Cho Viet Nam Vay9Ty USD Lam Dien Hat Nhan[N].Thoi Bao Kinh Te Viet Nam,2011-11-23.
283马晋强主编.当代东南亚国际关系[M].世界知识出版社，2000-02(285).
286Vietnam’s Russian Restocking[N/OL].Defense Industry Daily,2011-10-27.
287俄罗斯越南签署能源和军事领域系列重要协议[E/OL].环球时报,2009-12-16.
288越南将成为俄罗斯武器主要出口国”[E/OL].人民日报,2009-05-15.
289钟娅.外媒：越南外长访俄标志两国军事合作升温[EB/OL].江苏新闻网军事消息/俄新网报道,2008-09-17.
290俄军工加速向越南交付基洛级潜艇一年一艘[E/OL].新华社,2009-12-23.
291俄智库称2009年越南成俄罗斯最大武器进口国[E/OL].新华社，2010-01-25.另据俄罗斯国际文文电讯社2009年11月9日援引一位不愿透露姓国防部官员的话说,该交易额为20亿美元，以后第年交付一艘。
292越南采购第2批俄罗斯“猎豹”型护卫舰[EB/OL].国防科技信息网,2011-12-8.
293越南大量购俄制武器或超中印成第一采购方[N].环球时报,2009-12-07.
295盛世良.梅德韦杰夫向东看[N].国际先驱导报,2008-05-23.
296卢敬利.综述：俄罗斯新的对外政策构想[EB/OL].新华社,2008-07-16.
297Ha My Huong.Quan he Viet Nam-Lien Bang Nga qua60nam thang tram cua lich su[J/OL].TAP CHI CONG SAN,2010-03.
298外媒称俄国才是中国在南海的对手[N].羊城晚报,2011-08-17.
299Richard Weitz.Moscow’s Asian Nuclear Campaign[EB/OL].The Diplomat,2010-11-02.
300越南的Su-27和Su-30MK2其航程可以抵达南海群岛附近水域，而这是中国岸基战斗机攻击范围之外。
305外媒：越购买俄制潜艇与中国争夺南海主权[N].环球时报,2009-12-18.
306Al Labita. Russian wrinkle in the South China Sea[N]. Asia Times,2010-10-22.
307俄海军司令称俄拟在越古塞建海军基地[N].环球时报，2012-07-27.
308Tuyen Bo Chung Viet Nam-Lien Bang Nga[N/OL].Bao Moi,2008-10-29.
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562俄越军事合作参见：第一章第四节之“三”。
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564越南海军称2015年打造强大远洋护航作战能力［EB/OL］.新浪网,2008-01-11.
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566越南马来西亚等国在南海动作频频挑起主权争端[EB/OL].
567越南马来西亚等国在南海动作频频挑起主权争端-主权[EB/OL].
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631由美国国防部和国务院联合发布的一九九五年《东亚战略评估报告》仅限于：维持南海作为国际航道并对各国开放并鼓励相国声索国寻求和平解决争端。美国塑造的一个形象是一个中立的和平维持者因为这正是美国利益要求之所在。See:ASEAN and the South China Sea:Asecurity framework undersiege[C].www.csis.org.
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633First Plenary Session-Dr Robert Gates,The Shangri-La Dialogue,Singapore.2011-06-03.
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680专家解析2011年美国国防预算增加三大原因[EB/OL].人民日报,2010-12-29.http://military.people.com.cn/GB/42969/58519/13611742.html.6812011年国防费预算预计约为6011亿元人民币[EB/OL].新华社,2011-03-04.http://news.xinhuanet.com/mil/2011-03/04/c_121148907.htm
682State Budget Sets Aside$30Billion For Construction,Socio-Economic Tasks[EB/OL].VNA,152011-11-15.http://vietnamnews.vnagency.com.vn/.6832011年越南军费支出26亿美元，中国为915亿美元；为越南的近三十三倍；越南2012年预算为33亿美元，中国1064.4亿美元，比上一年增长11.2%，中国为为越南的三十二倍，明显越南人均相对国防支出在增加，而美国则为7250亿美元，较上一年也有大幅增加。
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