基于组合预测与模糊优化的高速公路路面养护决策研究
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摘要
随着我国高速公路建设与高速公路网的逐步形成,高速公路的养护管理问题显得越发突出和重要。目前我国尚缺乏统一的高速公路养护技术标准和规范,而且各地的高速公路养护管理模式不同,本文针对我国高速公路路面养护管理的现状,以省级范围的高速公路网级路面养护决策为主要研究对象,在路面使用性能评价和预测的基础上,构建了高速公路路面养护管理决策优化的主要框架,建立了路面养护方案与资金分配优化模型和求解算法。研究成果对高速公路建设管理和可持续发展具有重要的理论价值,对高速公路养护部门提高其决策与管理的科学性有重要的现实意义。
论文研究的关键问题包括:高速公路交通量预测、高速路面使用性能评价与预测、路面养护管理决策优化。
在高速公路交通量预测方面,论文在对现有交通量预测模型优缺点和适用性分析的基础上,重点探讨了灰色预测模型与回归预测系统,并在此基础上建立了基于组合预测思想的灰色与回归组合预测模型,提高了交通量预测的精度和适用性。
在路面使用性能评价与预测方面,论文探讨了路面使用性能的分项指标路面状况指数PCI、行驶质量指数RQI、路面强度系数PSSI和行驶安全指数SRI的测度和评价方法,并给出了各分项指标的模糊评价模型,在此基础上建立了高速公路路面使用性能综合模糊评价方法。在路面使用性能预测方面,通过对影响路面使用性能的因素分析,考虑已有预测模型的优缺点和应用情况及我国高速公路的养护管理现状,基于组合预测的思想,提出了神经网络与马尔可夫模型的相结合的组合预测模型对路面使用性能进行预测的方法,算例获得较好效果。
在路面养护决策方面,论文基于模糊优化决策理论探讨了规划期内路面养护维修计划和资金分配方案的优化模型与方法。首先,结合现有的路面养护技术规范与标准,阐述了高速公路路面养护管理要求及其养护策略。其次,应用工程经济原理与方法,分析研究了路面养护管理的费用与效益,作为确定决策指标与选择决策方案的主要依据。根据我国目前路面养护管理的实际情况,提出养护管理的费用主要考虑养护维修费用,而通过路面使用性能的改善和提高来间接反映养护效益。进而构建了高速公路网级路面养护管理决策优化框架,主要包括确定研究范围和规模、道路基础资料及检测数据收集、路面使用性能预测、路面养护措施选择、养护决策优化和方案制定。最后针对指定养护标准、指定服务水平和指定资金约束下的路面养护方案优化决策问题,分别以养护费用最小和效益最大为目标,基于模糊优化的思想建立了指定养护标准、指定服务水平和指定资金约束条件下的模糊规划模型,并针对模型的特点设计了集束搜索算法、遗传算法和动态规划求解算法,应用实例验证了决策模型的有效性。
With the development of China's highway construction and network,highway maintenance management appears to be more and more prominent and important.At present, there still are not uniform technical standards and norms for the highway maintenance.In addition,the models of the highway maintenance management are very different all over the country.According to present situation of China's highway maintenance management,the paper studis pavement maintenance management decision of provincial highway network. Based on the pavement performance assessment and its forecasting studies,the thesis constructs the main frame of highway pavement maintenance management optimization decision,establishes the pavement maintenance fund allocation optimization model,discussed the model solution algorithm.This researchs have important theoretical significance in the context of sustainable development of highway itself and region socioeconomic.And they are also positive and practical for decision-making of the highway management department or its specific maintenance management.
The key questions in the thesis includes:highway traffic forecasting,highway pavement performance assessment and its forecasting,optimization decision-making of pavement maintenance management.
Highway traffic forecasting:On the basis of the characteristic and applicability of current traffic forecasting models,gray forecasting model and regression method have been selected and discussed systematically for highway traffic forcasting.Then,several combination forecasting models of the gray forecasting and regression are proposed to improve prediction accuracy based on combination forecast thought.And their algorithms are developmed in Matlab 8.The experiments show that the combination method can increase the forecasting precision and serviceability.
Pavement performance assessment and its forecasting:The thesis discusses the measure and the assessment method about pavement performance sub-item indexes:Pavement Condition Index(PCI),Riding Quality Index(RQI),Pavement Structural Strength Index (PSSI) and Skidding Ressistance Index(SRI).Their fuzzy assessment functions are given, respectively.Then,a synthesis fuzzy assessment model is established for highway pavement performance assessment.The factors of highway pavement performance forecasting are analysed,and several present highway pavement performance forecasting models(such as: Neural Network,Markov model,et al.) are discussed about their character and applicabilities considered the present situation of our country highway maintenance management.Based on the combination forecast thought,the thesis proposes a combination forecasting model of the neural network and the Markov model to forecast pavement performance.
Highway pavement maintenmance management decision-making optimization:The thesis discusses highway pavement maintenmance project decision-making and mainenmance fund allocation.Firstly,combined to existing pavement maintenmance technology standard,the requests and strategy on highway pavement maintenmance management are expatiated on. Secondly,depended on the engineering economy principle and method,the pavement maintenance cost-effectiveness is discussed and the decision-making scheme is choosed based on its cost-effctiveness analysis.Then the main frame of highway network level maintenance management optimization decision-making is proposed and analysed,and it mainly includes determination of research scope and scale,collection of basic data and examination data of path,forecasting pavement performance,choice of maintenance measure,optimization of maintenance decision-making and making projects.Finally,considered the key of pavement maintenance decision-making,three fuzzy mathematical programming models are proposed based on general standards,service level and fund restraint,respectively.
论文研究的关键问题包括:高速公路交通量预测、高速路面使用性能评价与预测、路面养护管理决策优化。
在高速公路交通量预测方面,论文在对现有交通量预测模型优缺点和适用性分析的基础上,重点探讨了灰色预测模型与回归预测系统,并在此基础上建立了基于组合预测思想的灰色与回归组合预测模型,提高了交通量预测的精度和适用性。
在路面使用性能评价与预测方面,论文探讨了路面使用性能的分项指标路面状况指数PCI、行驶质量指数RQI、路面强度系数PSSI和行驶安全指数SRI的测度和评价方法,并给出了各分项指标的模糊评价模型,在此基础上建立了高速公路路面使用性能综合模糊评价方法。在路面使用性能预测方面,通过对影响路面使用性能的因素分析,考虑已有预测模型的优缺点和应用情况及我国高速公路的养护管理现状,基于组合预测的思想,提出了神经网络与马尔可夫模型的相结合的组合预测模型对路面使用性能进行预测的方法,算例获得较好效果。
在路面养护决策方面,论文基于模糊优化决策理论探讨了规划期内路面养护维修计划和资金分配方案的优化模型与方法。首先,结合现有的路面养护技术规范与标准,阐述了高速公路路面养护管理要求及其养护策略。其次,应用工程经济原理与方法,分析研究了路面养护管理的费用与效益,作为确定决策指标与选择决策方案的主要依据。根据我国目前路面养护管理的实际情况,提出养护管理的费用主要考虑养护维修费用,而通过路面使用性能的改善和提高来间接反映养护效益。进而构建了高速公路网级路面养护管理决策优化框架,主要包括确定研究范围和规模、道路基础资料及检测数据收集、路面使用性能预测、路面养护措施选择、养护决策优化和方案制定。最后针对指定养护标准、指定服务水平和指定资金约束下的路面养护方案优化决策问题,分别以养护费用最小和效益最大为目标,基于模糊优化的思想建立了指定养护标准、指定服务水平和指定资金约束条件下的模糊规划模型,并针对模型的特点设计了集束搜索算法、遗传算法和动态规划求解算法,应用实例验证了决策模型的有效性。
With the development of China's highway construction and network,highway maintenance management appears to be more and more prominent and important.At present, there still are not uniform technical standards and norms for the highway maintenance.In addition,the models of the highway maintenance management are very different all over the country.According to present situation of China's highway maintenance management,the paper studis pavement maintenance management decision of provincial highway network. Based on the pavement performance assessment and its forecasting studies,the thesis constructs the main frame of highway pavement maintenance management optimization decision,establishes the pavement maintenance fund allocation optimization model,discussed the model solution algorithm.This researchs have important theoretical significance in the context of sustainable development of highway itself and region socioeconomic.And they are also positive and practical for decision-making of the highway management department or its specific maintenance management.
The key questions in the thesis includes:highway traffic forecasting,highway pavement performance assessment and its forecasting,optimization decision-making of pavement maintenance management.
Highway traffic forecasting:On the basis of the characteristic and applicability of current traffic forecasting models,gray forecasting model and regression method have been selected and discussed systematically for highway traffic forcasting.Then,several combination forecasting models of the gray forecasting and regression are proposed to improve prediction accuracy based on combination forecast thought.And their algorithms are developmed in Matlab 8.The experiments show that the combination method can increase the forecasting precision and serviceability.
Pavement performance assessment and its forecasting:The thesis discusses the measure and the assessment method about pavement performance sub-item indexes:Pavement Condition Index(PCI),Riding Quality Index(RQI),Pavement Structural Strength Index (PSSI) and Skidding Ressistance Index(SRI).Their fuzzy assessment functions are given, respectively.Then,a synthesis fuzzy assessment model is established for highway pavement performance assessment.The factors of highway pavement performance forecasting are analysed,and several present highway pavement performance forecasting models(such as: Neural Network,Markov model,et al.) are discussed about their character and applicabilities considered the present situation of our country highway maintenance management.Based on the combination forecast thought,the thesis proposes a combination forecasting model of the neural network and the Markov model to forecast pavement performance.
Highway pavement maintenmance management decision-making optimization:The thesis discusses highway pavement maintenmance project decision-making and mainenmance fund allocation.Firstly,combined to existing pavement maintenmance technology standard,the requests and strategy on highway pavement maintenmance management are expatiated on. Secondly,depended on the engineering economy principle and method,the pavement maintenance cost-effectiveness is discussed and the decision-making scheme is choosed based on its cost-effctiveness analysis.Then the main frame of highway network level maintenance management optimization decision-making is proposed and analysed,and it mainly includes determination of research scope and scale,collection of basic data and examination data of path,forecasting pavement performance,choice of maintenance measure,optimization of maintenance decision-making and making projects.Finally,considered the key of pavement maintenance decision-making,three fuzzy mathematical programming models are proposed based on general standards,service level and fund restraint,respectively.
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