苹果病虫害种类、地域分布及主要病虫害发生趋势研究
|
摘要
我国苹果生产中病虫害发生种类多,发生频率高,分布地域广,危害损失大,有些病虫害对生产造成了毁灭性损害。为加强病虫害科学防治,本研究进行了苹果病虫害种类和分布的全国性调查。
通过两年的全国性普查,查明了当前苹果病害种类51种,白粉病、斑点落叶病、粗皮病、腐烂病、干腐病、褐斑病、褐腐病、黑星病、花叶病毒病、轮纹病、煤污病、霉心病、炭疽病、套袋果实黑点病、锈病、锈果病等16种为主要病害;其中腐烂病、斑点落叶病、轮纹病是各省市分布最广的重大病害,对苹果产业的健康发展构成威胁。与以往记载相比,调查增加了两种新病害,分别是丝核菌叶枯病和炭疽菌叶枯病,前者于2010年在河南濮阳发现,菌丝可在枝叶上蔓延,引起死枝和叶枯。后者是近两年在河南商丘、安徽的砀山、江苏丰县及山东青岛等地发现;本次调查中收录到害虫78种,增加了两种新害虫-桔小食蝇和印度小裂绵蚜,其中山楂叶螨、桃小食心虫、绣线菊蚜、苹果绵蚜、苹果小卷叶蛾、二斑叶螨等21种害虫为主要害虫,发生最普遍的害虫是叶螨类和蚜虫类,这两类害虫在管理不善的果园常造成很大危害。在鳞翅目的害虫中,除苹果蠹蛾外,多属于次要害虫,但是在不同地域和天气条件下,一些次要害虫也有造成严重危害的可能,需要引起足够重视。
根据调查数据,以点代面形式绘制出主要病虫害的分布区划图。区划图表明,苹果树腐烂病在主产省份发病均较重,个别的管理水平较好的幼龄园较轻。枝干轮纹病在山东、河南、河北、辽宁和天津等省市中等以上发生,其发生范围正从渤海湾产区正向西北地区推移,应引起密切关注。黑星病在新疆、山东、山西、甘肃、辽宁、黑龙江、天津和河南均有发现,除在新疆和黑龙江造成一定危害外,其他地区发生很轻;由于该病害为欧美国家苹果上的头号病害,对该病应保持高度关注。苹果害虫发生总体相对偏轻,二斑叶螨在河南发生较重,在山东蓬莱、辽宁东港、河北清苑和甘肃甘谷县等部分县点发生偏重,在新疆部分地区有较重的危害,应引起当地的注意。山楂叶螨发生程度比二斑叶螨严重,尤其在河北中部、山西南部和河南的北部及辽宁的东部等级重,在西南冷凉产区发生也较重。桃小食心虫在河北邯郸、山西长治、河南洛阳及黑龙江、吉林的个别地域发生严重,在新疆及西南冷凉产区未发现危害。绣线菊蚜分布相对较集中,在甘肃东南部、陕西中部和河南山西交界的较广泛地带呈带状较重分布,在环渤海产区北部、中部、南部呈三点状分布,并且河北中南部发生严重。苹果蠹蛾在新疆、甘肃、宁夏等地分布,此检疫性害虫由西往东蔓延扩散,与我国苹果种植区域由东向西的扩展相交汇,应引起足够重视。
应用GM(1,1)模型和一次滑动平均混合模型,根据调查获取的2000年以来各地主要病虫害历史发生程度数据,对腐烂病、枝干轮纹病、褐斑病、斑点落叶病和黑星病五种病害和山楂叶螨、苹果绵蚜两种主要虫害未来三年的发生趋势进行了预测。预测走势中苹果树腐烂病在全国范围会维持高发趋势;枝干轮纹病、斑点落叶病在全国也呈高发趋势,但能够基本保持平稳;预测褐斑病在山西、黑星病在河南将呈快速上升走势,应引起足够重视。预测害虫发生程度变化不大,山楂叶螨和苹果绵蚜预测趋重,在山西苹果绵蚜会较重发生。还预测了苹果蠹蛾随有一定的扩散蔓延,但扩散速度不大。
根据苹果产业体系综合试验站每年定期提供的病虫害监测实时数据,建立了苹果病虫害防治决策系统。应用数量化理论的方法,选取影响病虫害发生发展的品种抗性、物候期、发病程度、前几天和未来几天天气状况、前期是否用药、往年发病程度等七个主要影响因子为定性变量,针对每一变量给出不同的赋值,模型运算输出防治建议,可为广大果农提供病虫害防控决策。该决策系统已经通过中国苹果病虫害防控信息网实时指导各地的果农对病虫害进行科学防控。
In China, apple pests are major obstacles for apple production. In order to strengthen scientific control of plant diseases and insect pests, the research of a national survey on apple pests and distribution was conducted.
Through a two-year national survey, we have identified 51 different kinds of apple diseases. Among them, apple canker, leaf spot and ring rot are the three most important diseases in vast area of China and cause much damage for apple trees and for yields. Compared with the previous record, the survey found two new diseases. They are Rhizoctonia solani causing leaf blight and Glomerella causing leaf spots. The former was found in Puyang, Henan in 2010 that spread in branches and leaves, and lead the branches and leaves to death. The latter was found in Shangqiu of Henan, Dangshan of Anhui, Fengxian of Jiangsu and Qingdao of Shandong and other places in recent two years. The survey found 78 different kinds of pests. Among them Bactrocera dorsalis and Schizoneurella indica are two new species recently found in Zhengzhou and Yunnan province respectively. 21 species of pests such as Tetranychus viennensis, Carposina niponensis, Aphis citricola, Eriosoma lanigerum, Adoxophyes orana, Tetranychus urticae and so on are the main insect pests. The most common pests are mites and aphids, The insect pests in lepidoptera, except the codling moth, belong to secondary pests. But in some regions and under specified weather conditions, some secondary pests could cause serious damage, which also needs to be paid much attention.
According to the survey data, distribution maps were draw out for the major pests. The map showed that apple canker is serous in most apple producing provinces. Ring rot caused by Botryospuaeria berengeriana are serious in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Liaoning and Tianjin and the disease is developing from east to west provinces of China, which should be paid close attention. The Venturia inaequalis has been found in Xinjiang, Shandong, Shanxi, Gansu, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Tianjin and Henan and only cause problems in Xinjiang and Heilongjiang. In other regions it is very light. In general apple pests occur comparatively lighter than diseases. In some years, Tetranychus urticae could cause problems in Henan, Shandong, Liaoning, Hebei, Gansu and Xinjiang. Tetranychus viennensis usually is worse than Tetranychus urticae, especially in central Hebei, southern Shanxi and Northern Henan and Eastern Liaoning. In southwest platau apple producing areas it is also heavier. Carposina niponensis is serious in Handan of Hebei, Changzhi of Shanxi, Luoyang of Henan, some regions of Heilongjiang and Jilin. It has not been found in Xinjiang and southwest regions. Aphis citricola distributed relatively concentrated in southeast Gansu, central Shaanxi and northern Henan, southern Shanxi, as well as around Bohai. The codling moth distributed in Xinjiang, Gansu, Ningxia has the trend of spreading from the west to the east, and the apple growing region in our country is from the east to the west, which will be met and which should be paid enough attention.
Using GM(1,1) model and a moving average model, predictions were made for five kinds of diseases, Valsa mali, Botryospuaeria berengeriana, Diplocarpon mali, Alternaria alternaria and Venturia inaequalis, as well as two kinds pests, Tetranychus viennensis and Eriosoma lanigerum, based on the investigation data of the last ten years. It is found that Valsa mali will remain high–occurrence trend in most regions. Botryospuaeria berengeriana and Alternaria alternaria also showed trends of high occurrence, but maintaining steady basically. It predicts that Diplocarpon mali in Shanxi and Venturia inaequalis in Henan would rise up quickly. The prediction reveals that Tetranychus viennensi and Eriosoma lanigerum will be more serious generally and woolly aphid in Shanxi will be much severer significantly. It is forecasted that Laspeyresia pomonella would also slightly spread, but the speed is rather slow.
Based on the monitoring data provided by apple research stations of China, a decision support system was established. The basic principle is the application of quantitative theory such as selecting variety resistance, phenophase, the degree of disease, the climate of a few days earlier and later, chemical usage, the degree of disease in previous years as qualitative variables. And different assignment is given to each factor and the control decisions can be given after model operations. It can provide plant disease and insect pest prevention and control decision for the majority fruit growers. Currently the systen works at www.apple-ipm.cn to guide the fruit grower to strengthen scientific control to plant diseases and insect pests.
通过两年的全国性普查,查明了当前苹果病害种类51种,白粉病、斑点落叶病、粗皮病、腐烂病、干腐病、褐斑病、褐腐病、黑星病、花叶病毒病、轮纹病、煤污病、霉心病、炭疽病、套袋果实黑点病、锈病、锈果病等16种为主要病害;其中腐烂病、斑点落叶病、轮纹病是各省市分布最广的重大病害,对苹果产业的健康发展构成威胁。与以往记载相比,调查增加了两种新病害,分别是丝核菌叶枯病和炭疽菌叶枯病,前者于2010年在河南濮阳发现,菌丝可在枝叶上蔓延,引起死枝和叶枯。后者是近两年在河南商丘、安徽的砀山、江苏丰县及山东青岛等地发现;本次调查中收录到害虫78种,增加了两种新害虫-桔小食蝇和印度小裂绵蚜,其中山楂叶螨、桃小食心虫、绣线菊蚜、苹果绵蚜、苹果小卷叶蛾、二斑叶螨等21种害虫为主要害虫,发生最普遍的害虫是叶螨类和蚜虫类,这两类害虫在管理不善的果园常造成很大危害。在鳞翅目的害虫中,除苹果蠹蛾外,多属于次要害虫,但是在不同地域和天气条件下,一些次要害虫也有造成严重危害的可能,需要引起足够重视。
根据调查数据,以点代面形式绘制出主要病虫害的分布区划图。区划图表明,苹果树腐烂病在主产省份发病均较重,个别的管理水平较好的幼龄园较轻。枝干轮纹病在山东、河南、河北、辽宁和天津等省市中等以上发生,其发生范围正从渤海湾产区正向西北地区推移,应引起密切关注。黑星病在新疆、山东、山西、甘肃、辽宁、黑龙江、天津和河南均有发现,除在新疆和黑龙江造成一定危害外,其他地区发生很轻;由于该病害为欧美国家苹果上的头号病害,对该病应保持高度关注。苹果害虫发生总体相对偏轻,二斑叶螨在河南发生较重,在山东蓬莱、辽宁东港、河北清苑和甘肃甘谷县等部分县点发生偏重,在新疆部分地区有较重的危害,应引起当地的注意。山楂叶螨发生程度比二斑叶螨严重,尤其在河北中部、山西南部和河南的北部及辽宁的东部等级重,在西南冷凉产区发生也较重。桃小食心虫在河北邯郸、山西长治、河南洛阳及黑龙江、吉林的个别地域发生严重,在新疆及西南冷凉产区未发现危害。绣线菊蚜分布相对较集中,在甘肃东南部、陕西中部和河南山西交界的较广泛地带呈带状较重分布,在环渤海产区北部、中部、南部呈三点状分布,并且河北中南部发生严重。苹果蠹蛾在新疆、甘肃、宁夏等地分布,此检疫性害虫由西往东蔓延扩散,与我国苹果种植区域由东向西的扩展相交汇,应引起足够重视。
应用GM(1,1)模型和一次滑动平均混合模型,根据调查获取的2000年以来各地主要病虫害历史发生程度数据,对腐烂病、枝干轮纹病、褐斑病、斑点落叶病和黑星病五种病害和山楂叶螨、苹果绵蚜两种主要虫害未来三年的发生趋势进行了预测。预测走势中苹果树腐烂病在全国范围会维持高发趋势;枝干轮纹病、斑点落叶病在全国也呈高发趋势,但能够基本保持平稳;预测褐斑病在山西、黑星病在河南将呈快速上升走势,应引起足够重视。预测害虫发生程度变化不大,山楂叶螨和苹果绵蚜预测趋重,在山西苹果绵蚜会较重发生。还预测了苹果蠹蛾随有一定的扩散蔓延,但扩散速度不大。
根据苹果产业体系综合试验站每年定期提供的病虫害监测实时数据,建立了苹果病虫害防治决策系统。应用数量化理论的方法,选取影响病虫害发生发展的品种抗性、物候期、发病程度、前几天和未来几天天气状况、前期是否用药、往年发病程度等七个主要影响因子为定性变量,针对每一变量给出不同的赋值,模型运算输出防治建议,可为广大果农提供病虫害防控决策。该决策系统已经通过中国苹果病虫害防控信息网实时指导各地的果农对病虫害进行科学防控。
In China, apple pests are major obstacles for apple production. In order to strengthen scientific control of plant diseases and insect pests, the research of a national survey on apple pests and distribution was conducted.
Through a two-year national survey, we have identified 51 different kinds of apple diseases. Among them, apple canker, leaf spot and ring rot are the three most important diseases in vast area of China and cause much damage for apple trees and for yields. Compared with the previous record, the survey found two new diseases. They are Rhizoctonia solani causing leaf blight and Glomerella causing leaf spots. The former was found in Puyang, Henan in 2010 that spread in branches and leaves, and lead the branches and leaves to death. The latter was found in Shangqiu of Henan, Dangshan of Anhui, Fengxian of Jiangsu and Qingdao of Shandong and other places in recent two years. The survey found 78 different kinds of pests. Among them Bactrocera dorsalis and Schizoneurella indica are two new species recently found in Zhengzhou and Yunnan province respectively. 21 species of pests such as Tetranychus viennensis, Carposina niponensis, Aphis citricola, Eriosoma lanigerum, Adoxophyes orana, Tetranychus urticae and so on are the main insect pests. The most common pests are mites and aphids, The insect pests in lepidoptera, except the codling moth, belong to secondary pests. But in some regions and under specified weather conditions, some secondary pests could cause serious damage, which also needs to be paid much attention.
According to the survey data, distribution maps were draw out for the major pests. The map showed that apple canker is serous in most apple producing provinces. Ring rot caused by Botryospuaeria berengeriana are serious in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Liaoning and Tianjin and the disease is developing from east to west provinces of China, which should be paid close attention. The Venturia inaequalis has been found in Xinjiang, Shandong, Shanxi, Gansu, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Tianjin and Henan and only cause problems in Xinjiang and Heilongjiang. In other regions it is very light. In general apple pests occur comparatively lighter than diseases. In some years, Tetranychus urticae could cause problems in Henan, Shandong, Liaoning, Hebei, Gansu and Xinjiang. Tetranychus viennensis usually is worse than Tetranychus urticae, especially in central Hebei, southern Shanxi and Northern Henan and Eastern Liaoning. In southwest platau apple producing areas it is also heavier. Carposina niponensis is serious in Handan of Hebei, Changzhi of Shanxi, Luoyang of Henan, some regions of Heilongjiang and Jilin. It has not been found in Xinjiang and southwest regions. Aphis citricola distributed relatively concentrated in southeast Gansu, central Shaanxi and northern Henan, southern Shanxi, as well as around Bohai. The codling moth distributed in Xinjiang, Gansu, Ningxia has the trend of spreading from the west to the east, and the apple growing region in our country is from the east to the west, which will be met and which should be paid enough attention.
Using GM(1,1) model and a moving average model, predictions were made for five kinds of diseases, Valsa mali, Botryospuaeria berengeriana, Diplocarpon mali, Alternaria alternaria and Venturia inaequalis, as well as two kinds pests, Tetranychus viennensis and Eriosoma lanigerum, based on the investigation data of the last ten years. It is found that Valsa mali will remain high–occurrence trend in most regions. Botryospuaeria berengeriana and Alternaria alternaria also showed trends of high occurrence, but maintaining steady basically. It predicts that Diplocarpon mali in Shanxi and Venturia inaequalis in Henan would rise up quickly. The prediction reveals that Tetranychus viennensi and Eriosoma lanigerum will be more serious generally and woolly aphid in Shanxi will be much severer significantly. It is forecasted that Laspeyresia pomonella would also slightly spread, but the speed is rather slow.
Based on the monitoring data provided by apple research stations of China, a decision support system was established. The basic principle is the application of quantitative theory such as selecting variety resistance, phenophase, the degree of disease, the climate of a few days earlier and later, chemical usage, the degree of disease in previous years as qualitative variables. And different assignment is given to each factor and the control decisions can be given after model operations. It can provide plant disease and insect pest prevention and control decision for the majority fruit growers. Currently the systen works at www.apple-ipm.cn to guide the fruit grower to strengthen scientific control to plant diseases and insect pests.
引文
[1]张生智,李鲲鹏,王骞等.晋中地区苹果主要病虫害发生动态及综合防治[J].中国果树.2006,6:53-55.
[2]王宇霖.苹果栽培学[M].科学出版社.2011.
[3]中国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社.2006～2009.
[4]中国苹果病虫害防控信息网,http://www.apple-ipm.cn.
[5]王金政,薛晓敏,路超.我国苹果生产现状与发展对策[J].山东农业科学.2010,6:117-119.
[6]王田利,马将令.我国苹果生产的六大变化[J].北方果树.2009,6:38-39.
[7]苹果优势区域布局规划2008～2015[J].农业工程技术.2010,03:16-17.
[8]新一轮优势农产品区域布局规划汇编.农业部发展计划司[M].农业出版社.2009,4.
[9]束怀瑞.果树学[M].中国农业出版社.2002,10.
[10]黄万荣.果树栽培学北方读本[M].中国农业出版社.1984.
[11]赫李芹.20年来国外果树引进与利用进展[J].作物品种资源.1997.(1):41-43.
[12]翟衡,史大川,束怀瑞.我国苹果产业发展现状与趋势[J].果树学报.2007.03:355-360.
[13]李育农.苹果属植物种质资源研究[M].中国农业出版社,2001.
[14]中国农业科学院果树所,柑桔所.中国果树病虫志[M].中国农业出版社.1994.
[15]堪有光,王春华.原色苹果病虫害防治[M].杨凌:天则出版社,1993.
[16]中国农业昆虫(上、下册).中国科学院动物研究所[M].北京:农业出版社,1986.
[17]天敌昆虫图册[M].中国科学院动物研究所,浙江农业大学[M].北京:科学出版社,1978.
[18]张满良.农业植物病理学[M].西安:世界图书出版公司,1997.
[19]曾士迈.宏观植物病理学[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2005.
[20]陈昌洁.中国主要森林病虫害防治研究进展「M].北京:中国林业出版社,1999,12.
[21]张星耀,骆有庆.中国森林重大生物灾害[M].北京:中国林业出版社.2003.
[22]骆有庆,沈瑞祥.西北地区森林生物灾害的控制策略[J].林业科学.2000,36(6):188-192.
[23]冯明祥.苹果病虫害防治研究建议[J].中国果树.2009,3:65-67.
[24]杨军玉,刘淑香,胡同乐等.2009年全国苹果叶部主要病虫害发生及农药使用情况[J].中国植保导刊.2009,30(10):25-28,17.
[25]曹克强,王爱茹,杨军玉等.河北中部地区苹果、梨主要病虫害危害现状及分析[J].河北农业大学学报.1998,21(3):75-79.
[26]宋卫国.寇艳侠,李世强.黄陵县苹果病虫害发生动态及防治对策初探[J].中国植保导刊.2009,08:23-26.
[27]胡小平,周书涛,杨家荣.我国苹果黑星病发生概况及研究进展[J].中国生态农业学报.2010,18(3):663-667.
[28]苟建军,杨家荣,李随院.陕西苹果主产区苹果黑星病病情分布及防治对策[J].山西农业科学.2005,(2):76-77.
[29]李慧峰,吕德国,刘国成等.套袋对苹果果皮特征的影响[J].果树学报.2006,(03):326-329.
[30]李方杰,王磊,刘成连等.套袋对苹果果实钙素吸收与分布的影响[J].果树学报.2007,(04):517-520.
[31]关军锋,索尔(德).果树钙素营养与生理[M].北京:科学出版社.2005,7.
[32]杨军玉,王树桐,刘淑香等.2010年全国苹果园病虫害发生及用药情况调查分析[J].北方园艺.2011,(20):140-143.
[33]李夏鸣,郭黄萍,郝国伟等.山西省苹果锈病的发生及防治对策[J].山西果树,2004,(06):24.
[34]卢凯洁,赵多长,伏松平等.苹果锈病严重发生原因及综合防治措施[J].中国果树,2009,(04):67-68.
[35]翟小伟,刘万学,万方浩等.甘肃酒泉苹果蠹蛾的发生规律[J].昆虫知识.2010,47(4):715-719.
[36]梁亮,余慧,刘星月等.苹果蠹蛾在中国的适生性分析[J].植物保护.2010,36(22):101-105.
[37]董晓燕,王佳军,杨华等.辽宁省苹果病虫害发生与防治现状[J].北方园艺2010(22):145-147.
[38]董锦花,程斌,陆俊姣等.检疫性害虫苹果绵蚜在山西发生危害的调查与研究[J].山西农业大学学报.2008,28(2):156-158.
[39]王建斌,董应超,尹文强等.苹果小卷叶蛾对套塑膜袋苹果的危害及其防治[J].中国果树,2005,(05):45-46.
[40]陈淑琴.苹果小卷叶蛾大发生的原因及综合防治技术[J].中国农业推广.2009(12):38-39.
[41]周增强,侯珲,王丽等.枝干苹果轮纹病人工接种方法与品种抗性评价[J].果树学报.2010,(06):34-36.
[42]李广旭,沈永波,高艳敏等.苹果轮纹病菌侵染机制的研究(英文)[J].果树学报,2007,(01):16-20
[43]刘俊.河北地区美国白蛾的防治[J].中国花卉园艺.2005,(22):26-27.
[44]张乃芹,耿建芬,王金梅.鲁西北地区美国白蛾的发生规律及综合治理[J].河南农业科学.2011,(4):109-112.
[45]刘薇.果树病虫害地理信息系统的研究与开发[D].河北农业大学.2005,6.
[46] V.Stejskal.Economic Injury Level and Preventive Pest Control[J]. Jouranl of Pest seience 2003,76(6).
[47] C.von Krocher and M. Rohrig. Monitoring of Plant Pests and Diseases as a Base of the Germany-Wide Online Decision Support System
[48] B. Freedman, D. K. Reed, R. G Powell, R. V Madrigal and C. R. Smith Jr. Biological activities of Trewia nudiflora extracts agains
[49] Wilson L F. Pine spittlebug: its ecology and management[M]. United States of Agriculture-Forest sevice, Agriculture Handbook, 1999
[50] C. J. Bampfyldeand M. A. Lewis. Biological Control Through Intraguild Predation: Case Studies in Pest Control, Invasive Species and Range Expansion[J]. Bulletin Mathmatical Biology.2007,69(3)
[51] Sandra L.Anagnostakis. The Effect of Multiple Importations of Pests and Pathogens on a Native Tree.Biological Invasins[J].2001,3(3): 245-254.
[52] Robert A.Haack and Therese M.Poland. Evolving Management Strategies for a Recently Discovered Exot,Forest Pest: The Pine Shoot Beetle, Tomicus Piniperd
[53]张子维,林静.苹果病虫害无公害防治技术[J].中国果树,2005,(02):45-47.
[54]周秋菊,潘贤丽等.应用生物防治技术控制天牛危害[J].植物保护.2004.30(1):12-15
[55]冷德训,姜好胜等.金纹细蛾性诱剂的诱虫效果及在测报上的应用[J].中国果树.2004(1):28-30.
[56]邱素娟.农作物外来有害生物信息系统及风险评估与监控体系[D].福建农林大学.2008.
[57]李宽胜.太白山自然保护区综合考察论文集[M].西安:陕西师范大学出版社.1989.
[58]李焕宇,翟小茹,孙广宇.中国苹果蝇粪病病原菌多样性研究[A].中国植物病理学会学术论文集.2008.
[59]贺萍.林业外来有害生物研究的国际比较与实证分析[D].北京林业大学.2010.
[60]张武云.苹果病虫害绿色防控技术应用[J].植物保护,2010(8):62-63.
[61]闫峻.我国林业生物灾害管理的经济学分析与对策研究[D].北京林业大学.2008.
[62]杨华,伊凯,刘志等.苹果病虫害发生与防治现状的调查研究[J].北方果树,2009,(2):41-43.
[63]陈纪敏.河南省驻马店市林业有害生物调查研究[D].西北农林科技大学.2008.
[64]茹克亚·阿不力孜,于江南,陈卫民等.新疆伊犁河谷苹果主要害虫发生现状及综合防治技术[J].黑龙江科技信息,2008,(25):129,209.
[65]莫延德.吴起县有害生物调查研究[D].西北农林科技大学.2008.
[66]陈云华,刘刚,尚振江等.伊犁河谷苹果冻害调查分析[J].新疆农业大学学报,2009,32(5):63-66.
[67]吴桂本,王继秋,王培松等.山东苹果主要病虫害化学防治技术[J].农药科学与管理,2001,(S1).
[68]冯明祥,鹿世晋,姜瑞德.青岛地区苹果主要害虫种类的演变及防治对策[J].落叶果树,1999,(02):.
[69]阎克峰,高艳华,王东等.栽培新技术对苹果园病虫害发生的影响及防治[J].中国果树,2002,(05):26-28.
[70]程存刚,刘凤之,魏长存等.辽西地区富士苹果主要病虫害防治技术[J].中国果树,2001,(04):33-34.
[71]吴桂本,孙亮,张广和等.苹果主要病虫害的化学防治技术[J].烟台果树,2000,(01):26-27.
[72]李东鸿,赵政阳,赵惠燕等.苹果病虫害综合防治技术规程(草案)[J].西北林学院学报,2004,(04):113-115.
[73] 2004年无公害套袋苹果病虫害防治历[J].烟台果树,2004,(01):36-37.
[74]徐桂梅.陇东地区苹果树主要害螨的发生规律研究[D].甘肃农业大学,2009.
[75]吴桂本.2003年红富士苹果主要病虫害防治技术[J].烟台果树,2003,(02):36-37.
[76]孟和生,王开运,姜兴印等.二斑叶螨发生危害特点及防治对策[J].昆虫知识,2001,(01):52-54.
[77]杨振锋,王伟东,丛佩华等.我国苹果产业国际竞争力分析[J].北方果树.2004,S1:47-48.
[78]王振平.内蒙古河套地区苹果梨主要害虫综合防治[J].中国果树,2000,(3):12-15.
[79]赵飞,王慧.桃小食心虫生物生态学研究进展[J].山西农业科学,2010,38(5):36-38,88.
[80]刘俊生,张战利.苹果园病虫害系统管理规范刍议[J]中国植保导刊.2006,10:27-29.
[81]陈洪俊.我国有害生物风险的历史与现状[J].植物检疫.2002.21(1)28-32.
[82]万方法,叶正楚.生物防治作用物风险评价的方法[J].中国生物防治.1997,13(I):37-41.
[83]庞雄飞,梁广文.害虫种群系统控制[M].广东科学技术出版社.1995.
[84]袁锋,花保祯,杨从军等.陕西省烟田昆虫区系调查与分类体系[J].西北农业大学学报,1997,25(25)2:27-36.
[85]汪世泽主编.昆虫研究法[M].农业出版社.1993.
[86]项存梯主编.林病研究法[M].哈尔滨:东北林业大学出版社,1991.
[87]刘凤之,王昆,曹玉芬等.我国苹果种质资源研究现状与展望[J].果树学报.2006,23 (6): 865-870.
[88]牟少敏,刘忠德,孔繁华等.苹果黄蚜危害苹果经济损失和经济阈值的研究[J].山东农业大学学报(自然科学版).2002,01:87-88,100.
[89]高克祥,刘晓光.苹果树腐烂病研究概况[J].河北林学院学报,1995(1):88-89.
[90]朱凤美.中国植物病菌[J].中国农学会报,1927,54:23-43.
[91]曹克强,国立耘,李保华等.中国苹果树腐烂病发生和防治情况调查[J].植物保护, 2009.35 (2):114-116.
[92]国立耘,李金云,李保华等.中国苹果枝干轮纹病发生和防治情况[J].植物保护.2009, 35(4):120-123.
[93]阎振立,张全军,张顺妮等.苹果品种对轮纹病抗性的鉴定[J].果树学报,2005 (6):654-657.
[94]高艳敏,沈永波,王宝申等.辽宁省苹果枝干轮纹病和粗皮病发生情况调查[J].中国果树, 2006(5):50-53.
[95]翟衡,任诚,厉恩茂.套袋对苹果生产投资结构的影响及密植园遮光问题[J].园艺学报.2006,33 (4):921-926.
[96]李彩丽,李春敏,张新忠等.苹果抗轮纹病机制及抗病育种研究进展[J].中国果树.2009,3(5):46-49.
[97]王晔,胡同乐,曹克强.生长季苹果枝干轮纹病病菌分生孢子释放的决定性因素[J].安徽农业科学.2010,(38)27:15002-15004.
[98]冼晓青,翟保平,张孝羲等.江苏沿江和江淮区褐飞虱前期迁入量与太平洋海温场的遥相关及其可能机制[J].昆虫学报,2007,50(06):578-587.
[99]袭祝香,潘旭,刘玉英等.苹果梨适宜栽植区域划分的研究[J].中国农业气象.1996.01:52-57.
[100]郑小华.陕西苹果产业与气象条件关系研究[D].兰州大学, 2006.
[101]任炳忠,李典忠,杨彦龙等.吉林省农林天敌昆虫区系及多样性的研究(Ⅰ-)[J].吉林农业大学学报,2001,23(4):28-36.
[102]任炳忠,李典忠,孙晓玲等.吉林省农林天敌昆虫区系及多样性的研究(Ⅱ)[J].吉林农业大学学报,2002,24(1):28-39.
[103]杨彦龙,任炳忠.吉林省农林天敌昆虫区系及多样性的研究(Ⅲ)[J].长春师范学院学报(自然科学版),2003,22(2):69-74.
[104]张建华,季红江.苹果园昆虫群落空间结构研究[J].石河子农学院学报,1994,12,(1):57-60.
[105]吴春华,陈欣.农药对农区生物多样性的影响[J].应用生态学报.2004,15(2):341-344.
[106]郜树德,胡想顺,相建业等.渭北苹果主要病虫害种类演变及防治对策[J].西北园艺,2000,(3):33-34.
[107]孙庆田,张福兴,刘美英.烟台苹果病虫害的演变与防治[J].烟台果树.2000,02:34-36.
[108]卢布,陈印军,吴凯等.不同尺度农业预测差异及其处理[J].中国农业资源与区划.2005,06:54-56.
[109]邵珠艳,王春梅,魏曼莎.灰色GM(1,1)预测模型在疾病预测中的应用[J].中国医院统计,2003,10(03).
[110]罗党,刘思峰.一类灰色群决策问题的分析方法[J].南京航空航天大学学报,2005,37(3):395-398.
[111]罗党,周玲,罗迪新.灰色风险型多属性群决策方法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2008,30(9):1675-1678.
[112] Rao C J,Xiao X P,Peng J.Novel combinatorial algorithm for the problems of fuzzy grey multi-attribute group decision making[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2007,18 (4):774-780.
[113]罗党.灰色决策问题的分析方法研究[D].南京:航空航天大学,2005.
[114]张治强,冯夏庭,杨成祥等.非线性位移时间序列分析的遗传-神经网络方法[J].东北大学学报(自然科学版),1999,20(4):422-425.
[115]陈良洲,施文康.时间序列分析的随机集方法[J].上海交通大学学报,2005,39(3):400-404.
[116]丁明,张立军,吴义纯等.基于时间序列分析的风电场风速预测模型[J].电力自动化设备,2005,25 (8):32-34.
[117]刘树,曹颖琦,张增臣等.我国农业经济灰色系统预测[J].统计与决策,2005,(8):43-45.
[118] Pawlak Z.. Rough Sets: Theoretical Aspects of Reasoning about Data. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publisher, 1991.
[119]李金锋,黄崇福,宗恬.反精确现象与形式化研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2005,25(4):128-132.
[120]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕等.灰色系统理论及其应用(第五版)[M].北京:科学出版社,2010.
[121]邓聚龙.灰色预测与决策[M].武汉:华中工学院出版社, 1988:97-190.
[122]刘璇,唐慧强,许遐祯等.基于神经网络的农业病虫害损失预测[J].农机化研究,2009,31(4):13-16.
[123]廖飞.灰色系统在我国大豆供需预测中的应用[J].安徽农业科学,2009,37(22):10329-10330.
[124]张举,丁宏伟.灰色拓扑预测方法在黑河出山径流量预报中的应用[J].干旱区地理,2005,28(6):751-755.
[125]朱春江,唐德善,马文斌等.基于灰色理论和BP神经网络预测观光农业旅游人数的研究[J].安徽农业科学,2006,34(4):612-614.
[126]高雅.短时交通流预测模型及预测方法的研究[D].华东师范大学,2011.
[127]徐泽水.不确定多属性决策方法及其应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2004.
[128] PENG Ying-qiong; WANG Ying-long; TANG Jian-jun.A Study on Rice Pest Insect and Disease Diagnosis Expert System Based on B/S Mode[J].Acta Agriculturae Universitatis Jiangxiensis. Vo.l 30,No. 6,Dec., 2008.1157-1160
[129] Li Jingtao; Gu Lin; Xie Wen; Zou Ping; Fu Yang; Yang Yanli.Dynamic expert support degree method for group decision making of agricultural diseases forecasting system[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering. Vol.26 Supp.1.Oct
[130] HU Xiaoping, CHEN Jing, ZHOU Shutao.Simulation System for Apple Scab Epidemic in Spring on Arid Plateau of Weibei[J]. Acta Agriculturae Boreali-Occidentalis Sinica, Vol.18,No.5.May,2009.127-132
[131] SI Li-li CAO Ke-qiang LIU Jia-peng.Establishment of a real-time monitoring and forecasting system on main crop diseases and pests of China based on GIS[J]. Acta Phytophylacica Sinica. Vol.l33.No. 3.Sept.2006.282-286.
[132]邱菀华.管理决策与应用熵学[M].北京:机械工业出版社.2002.
[133]王应明.AHP最小二乘排序方法及其算法研究[J].应用数学与计算数学学报,1997,11(1):1-9.
[134]董文泉.数量化理论及其应用[M].吉林人民出版社.1979.
[135]曹若彬.果树病理学第1版[M].北京:中国农业出版社.1997.
[136]陈水利,李敬功,王向公.模糊集理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2005.
[137]侯丽薇,孙立城,穆维松.苹果产量的神经网络预测模型[J].中国农业大学学报(社科版).2001,01:51-53.
[138]罗承忠.模糊集引论[M].北京师范大学出版社.2005.
[139]王学萌.灰色系统方法简明教程[M].成都:成都科技大学出版社.1993.
[140]魏存平,邱菀华,王新哲.一种新的模糊群体决策方法[J].系统工程理论与实践.2001,21(7):81-86.
[141]徐泽水,达庆利.混合判断矩阵排序的线性目标规划法[J].管理科学学报.2002,5(6):24-28.
[142]徐泽水.基于期望值的模糊多属性决策法及其应用[J].系统工程理论与实践.2004,24(1):109-119.
[143]窦连登,张红军.苹果园主要病虫害预测监测方法及防治指标[J].果树医院.2011,5:36-37.
[144]仇贵生,李美娜等.苹果主要病虫害的预测预报、防治适期及药剂选择[J].中国植保导刊.2006,6;31-33
[145] Zacharia JT, Kishmbam A, Masahikoh.Biota uptake ofpesticides by selected plant species; the case study of Kilombero sugarcanep lantations in MorogoroRegion, Tanzania [J].Pesticide Biochemistry and Physiology, 2010,97:71-75.
[146]华小梅,江希流.我国农药环境优先控制品种的筛选[J].环境保护.2001,(6):35-39.
[147]梁魁景,王树桐,胡同乐等.河北省苹果主要病虫害发生现状调查[J].植物保护.2010,36(5)123-127.
[148]丁素明,张晓辛.农药使用的污染因素及控制途径[J].中国农机化2010,(1): 32-34,37.
[149]杨仁斌,彭娟莹,袁芳.农药在环境中的水解途径[J].农业环境科学学报2006,25:389-391.
[150]赵丽琴,郭玉明,张培增等.小麦免耕播种机性能指标的关联度分析与灰色聚类评估[J].农业工程学报.2011,27(9):54-57.
[151]曹明霞.灰色关联度模型正负性问题的研究及其改进[J].系统工程与电子技术,2008,30(6):1086-1088
[2]王宇霖.苹果栽培学[M].科学出版社.2011.
[3]中国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社.2006～2009.
[4]中国苹果病虫害防控信息网,http://www.apple-ipm.cn.
[5]王金政,薛晓敏,路超.我国苹果生产现状与发展对策[J].山东农业科学.2010,6:117-119.
[6]王田利,马将令.我国苹果生产的六大变化[J].北方果树.2009,6:38-39.
[7]苹果优势区域布局规划2008～2015[J].农业工程技术.2010,03:16-17.
[8]新一轮优势农产品区域布局规划汇编.农业部发展计划司[M].农业出版社.2009,4.
[9]束怀瑞.果树学[M].中国农业出版社.2002,10.
[10]黄万荣.果树栽培学北方读本[M].中国农业出版社.1984.
[11]赫李芹.20年来国外果树引进与利用进展[J].作物品种资源.1997.(1):41-43.
[12]翟衡,史大川,束怀瑞.我国苹果产业发展现状与趋势[J].果树学报.2007.03:355-360.
[13]李育农.苹果属植物种质资源研究[M].中国农业出版社,2001.
[14]中国农业科学院果树所,柑桔所.中国果树病虫志[M].中国农业出版社.1994.
[15]堪有光,王春华.原色苹果病虫害防治[M].杨凌:天则出版社,1993.
[16]中国农业昆虫(上、下册).中国科学院动物研究所[M].北京:农业出版社,1986.
[17]天敌昆虫图册[M].中国科学院动物研究所,浙江农业大学[M].北京:科学出版社,1978.
[18]张满良.农业植物病理学[M].西安:世界图书出版公司,1997.
[19]曾士迈.宏观植物病理学[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2005.
[20]陈昌洁.中国主要森林病虫害防治研究进展「M].北京:中国林业出版社,1999,12.
[21]张星耀,骆有庆.中国森林重大生物灾害[M].北京:中国林业出版社.2003.
[22]骆有庆,沈瑞祥.西北地区森林生物灾害的控制策略[J].林业科学.2000,36(6):188-192.
[23]冯明祥.苹果病虫害防治研究建议[J].中国果树.2009,3:65-67.
[24]杨军玉,刘淑香,胡同乐等.2009年全国苹果叶部主要病虫害发生及农药使用情况[J].中国植保导刊.2009,30(10):25-28,17.
[25]曹克强,王爱茹,杨军玉等.河北中部地区苹果、梨主要病虫害危害现状及分析[J].河北农业大学学报.1998,21(3):75-79.
[26]宋卫国.寇艳侠,李世强.黄陵县苹果病虫害发生动态及防治对策初探[J].中国植保导刊.2009,08:23-26.
[27]胡小平,周书涛,杨家荣.我国苹果黑星病发生概况及研究进展[J].中国生态农业学报.2010,18(3):663-667.
[28]苟建军,杨家荣,李随院.陕西苹果主产区苹果黑星病病情分布及防治对策[J].山西农业科学.2005,(2):76-77.
[29]李慧峰,吕德国,刘国成等.套袋对苹果果皮特征的影响[J].果树学报.2006,(03):326-329.
[30]李方杰,王磊,刘成连等.套袋对苹果果实钙素吸收与分布的影响[J].果树学报.2007,(04):517-520.
[31]关军锋,索尔(德).果树钙素营养与生理[M].北京:科学出版社.2005,7.
[32]杨军玉,王树桐,刘淑香等.2010年全国苹果园病虫害发生及用药情况调查分析[J].北方园艺.2011,(20):140-143.
[33]李夏鸣,郭黄萍,郝国伟等.山西省苹果锈病的发生及防治对策[J].山西果树,2004,(06):24.
[34]卢凯洁,赵多长,伏松平等.苹果锈病严重发生原因及综合防治措施[J].中国果树,2009,(04):67-68.
[35]翟小伟,刘万学,万方浩等.甘肃酒泉苹果蠹蛾的发生规律[J].昆虫知识.2010,47(4):715-719.
[36]梁亮,余慧,刘星月等.苹果蠹蛾在中国的适生性分析[J].植物保护.2010,36(22):101-105.
[37]董晓燕,王佳军,杨华等.辽宁省苹果病虫害发生与防治现状[J].北方园艺2010(22):145-147.
[38]董锦花,程斌,陆俊姣等.检疫性害虫苹果绵蚜在山西发生危害的调查与研究[J].山西农业大学学报.2008,28(2):156-158.
[39]王建斌,董应超,尹文强等.苹果小卷叶蛾对套塑膜袋苹果的危害及其防治[J].中国果树,2005,(05):45-46.
[40]陈淑琴.苹果小卷叶蛾大发生的原因及综合防治技术[J].中国农业推广.2009(12):38-39.
[41]周增强,侯珲,王丽等.枝干苹果轮纹病人工接种方法与品种抗性评价[J].果树学报.2010,(06):34-36.
[42]李广旭,沈永波,高艳敏等.苹果轮纹病菌侵染机制的研究(英文)[J].果树学报,2007,(01):16-20
[43]刘俊.河北地区美国白蛾的防治[J].中国花卉园艺.2005,(22):26-27.
[44]张乃芹,耿建芬,王金梅.鲁西北地区美国白蛾的发生规律及综合治理[J].河南农业科学.2011,(4):109-112.
[45]刘薇.果树病虫害地理信息系统的研究与开发[D].河北农业大学.2005,6.
[46] V.Stejskal.Economic Injury Level and Preventive Pest Control[J]. Jouranl of Pest seience 2003,76(6).
[47] C.von Krocher and M. Rohrig. Monitoring of Plant Pests and Diseases as a Base of the Germany-Wide Online Decision Support System
[48] B. Freedman, D. K. Reed, R. G Powell, R. V Madrigal and C. R. Smith Jr. Biological activities of Trewia nudiflora extracts agains
[49] Wilson L F. Pine spittlebug: its ecology and management[M]. United States of Agriculture-Forest sevice, Agriculture Handbook, 1999
[50] C. J. Bampfyldeand M. A. Lewis. Biological Control Through Intraguild Predation: Case Studies in Pest Control, Invasive Species and Range Expansion[J]. Bulletin Mathmatical Biology.2007,69(3)
[51] Sandra L.Anagnostakis. The Effect of Multiple Importations of Pests and Pathogens on a Native Tree.Biological Invasins[J].2001,3(3): 245-254.
[52] Robert A.Haack and Therese M.Poland. Evolving Management Strategies for a Recently Discovered Exot,Forest Pest: The Pine Shoot Beetle, Tomicus Piniperd
[53]张子维,林静.苹果病虫害无公害防治技术[J].中国果树,2005,(02):45-47.
[54]周秋菊,潘贤丽等.应用生物防治技术控制天牛危害[J].植物保护.2004.30(1):12-15
[55]冷德训,姜好胜等.金纹细蛾性诱剂的诱虫效果及在测报上的应用[J].中国果树.2004(1):28-30.
[56]邱素娟.农作物外来有害生物信息系统及风险评估与监控体系[D].福建农林大学.2008.
[57]李宽胜.太白山自然保护区综合考察论文集[M].西安:陕西师范大学出版社.1989.
[58]李焕宇,翟小茹,孙广宇.中国苹果蝇粪病病原菌多样性研究[A].中国植物病理学会学术论文集.2008.
[59]贺萍.林业外来有害生物研究的国际比较与实证分析[D].北京林业大学.2010.
[60]张武云.苹果病虫害绿色防控技术应用[J].植物保护,2010(8):62-63.
[61]闫峻.我国林业生物灾害管理的经济学分析与对策研究[D].北京林业大学.2008.
[62]杨华,伊凯,刘志等.苹果病虫害发生与防治现状的调查研究[J].北方果树,2009,(2):41-43.
[63]陈纪敏.河南省驻马店市林业有害生物调查研究[D].西北农林科技大学.2008.
[64]茹克亚·阿不力孜,于江南,陈卫民等.新疆伊犁河谷苹果主要害虫发生现状及综合防治技术[J].黑龙江科技信息,2008,(25):129,209.
[65]莫延德.吴起县有害生物调查研究[D].西北农林科技大学.2008.
[66]陈云华,刘刚,尚振江等.伊犁河谷苹果冻害调查分析[J].新疆农业大学学报,2009,32(5):63-66.
[67]吴桂本,王继秋,王培松等.山东苹果主要病虫害化学防治技术[J].农药科学与管理,2001,(S1).
[68]冯明祥,鹿世晋,姜瑞德.青岛地区苹果主要害虫种类的演变及防治对策[J].落叶果树,1999,(02):.
[69]阎克峰,高艳华,王东等.栽培新技术对苹果园病虫害发生的影响及防治[J].中国果树,2002,(05):26-28.
[70]程存刚,刘凤之,魏长存等.辽西地区富士苹果主要病虫害防治技术[J].中国果树,2001,(04):33-34.
[71]吴桂本,孙亮,张广和等.苹果主要病虫害的化学防治技术[J].烟台果树,2000,(01):26-27.
[72]李东鸿,赵政阳,赵惠燕等.苹果病虫害综合防治技术规程(草案)[J].西北林学院学报,2004,(04):113-115.
[73] 2004年无公害套袋苹果病虫害防治历[J].烟台果树,2004,(01):36-37.
[74]徐桂梅.陇东地区苹果树主要害螨的发生规律研究[D].甘肃农业大学,2009.
[75]吴桂本.2003年红富士苹果主要病虫害防治技术[J].烟台果树,2003,(02):36-37.
[76]孟和生,王开运,姜兴印等.二斑叶螨发生危害特点及防治对策[J].昆虫知识,2001,(01):52-54.
[77]杨振锋,王伟东,丛佩华等.我国苹果产业国际竞争力分析[J].北方果树.2004,S1:47-48.
[78]王振平.内蒙古河套地区苹果梨主要害虫综合防治[J].中国果树,2000,(3):12-15.
[79]赵飞,王慧.桃小食心虫生物生态学研究进展[J].山西农业科学,2010,38(5):36-38,88.
[80]刘俊生,张战利.苹果园病虫害系统管理规范刍议[J]中国植保导刊.2006,10:27-29.
[81]陈洪俊.我国有害生物风险的历史与现状[J].植物检疫.2002.21(1)28-32.
[82]万方法,叶正楚.生物防治作用物风险评价的方法[J].中国生物防治.1997,13(I):37-41.
[83]庞雄飞,梁广文.害虫种群系统控制[M].广东科学技术出版社.1995.
[84]袁锋,花保祯,杨从军等.陕西省烟田昆虫区系调查与分类体系[J].西北农业大学学报,1997,25(25)2:27-36.
[85]汪世泽主编.昆虫研究法[M].农业出版社.1993.
[86]项存梯主编.林病研究法[M].哈尔滨:东北林业大学出版社,1991.
[87]刘凤之,王昆,曹玉芬等.我国苹果种质资源研究现状与展望[J].果树学报.2006,23 (6): 865-870.
[88]牟少敏,刘忠德,孔繁华等.苹果黄蚜危害苹果经济损失和经济阈值的研究[J].山东农业大学学报(自然科学版).2002,01:87-88,100.
[89]高克祥,刘晓光.苹果树腐烂病研究概况[J].河北林学院学报,1995(1):88-89.
[90]朱凤美.中国植物病菌[J].中国农学会报,1927,54:23-43.
[91]曹克强,国立耘,李保华等.中国苹果树腐烂病发生和防治情况调查[J].植物保护, 2009.35 (2):114-116.
[92]国立耘,李金云,李保华等.中国苹果枝干轮纹病发生和防治情况[J].植物保护.2009, 35(4):120-123.
[93]阎振立,张全军,张顺妮等.苹果品种对轮纹病抗性的鉴定[J].果树学报,2005 (6):654-657.
[94]高艳敏,沈永波,王宝申等.辽宁省苹果枝干轮纹病和粗皮病发生情况调查[J].中国果树, 2006(5):50-53.
[95]翟衡,任诚,厉恩茂.套袋对苹果生产投资结构的影响及密植园遮光问题[J].园艺学报.2006,33 (4):921-926.
[96]李彩丽,李春敏,张新忠等.苹果抗轮纹病机制及抗病育种研究进展[J].中国果树.2009,3(5):46-49.
[97]王晔,胡同乐,曹克强.生长季苹果枝干轮纹病病菌分生孢子释放的决定性因素[J].安徽农业科学.2010,(38)27:15002-15004.
[98]冼晓青,翟保平,张孝羲等.江苏沿江和江淮区褐飞虱前期迁入量与太平洋海温场的遥相关及其可能机制[J].昆虫学报,2007,50(06):578-587.
[99]袭祝香,潘旭,刘玉英等.苹果梨适宜栽植区域划分的研究[J].中国农业气象.1996.01:52-57.
[100]郑小华.陕西苹果产业与气象条件关系研究[D].兰州大学, 2006.
[101]任炳忠,李典忠,杨彦龙等.吉林省农林天敌昆虫区系及多样性的研究(Ⅰ-)[J].吉林农业大学学报,2001,23(4):28-36.
[102]任炳忠,李典忠,孙晓玲等.吉林省农林天敌昆虫区系及多样性的研究(Ⅱ)[J].吉林农业大学学报,2002,24(1):28-39.
[103]杨彦龙,任炳忠.吉林省农林天敌昆虫区系及多样性的研究(Ⅲ)[J].长春师范学院学报(自然科学版),2003,22(2):69-74.
[104]张建华,季红江.苹果园昆虫群落空间结构研究[J].石河子农学院学报,1994,12,(1):57-60.
[105]吴春华,陈欣.农药对农区生物多样性的影响[J].应用生态学报.2004,15(2):341-344.
[106]郜树德,胡想顺,相建业等.渭北苹果主要病虫害种类演变及防治对策[J].西北园艺,2000,(3):33-34.
[107]孙庆田,张福兴,刘美英.烟台苹果病虫害的演变与防治[J].烟台果树.2000,02:34-36.
[108]卢布,陈印军,吴凯等.不同尺度农业预测差异及其处理[J].中国农业资源与区划.2005,06:54-56.
[109]邵珠艳,王春梅,魏曼莎.灰色GM(1,1)预测模型在疾病预测中的应用[J].中国医院统计,2003,10(03).
[110]罗党,刘思峰.一类灰色群决策问题的分析方法[J].南京航空航天大学学报,2005,37(3):395-398.
[111]罗党,周玲,罗迪新.灰色风险型多属性群决策方法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2008,30(9):1675-1678.
[112] Rao C J,Xiao X P,Peng J.Novel combinatorial algorithm for the problems of fuzzy grey multi-attribute group decision making[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2007,18 (4):774-780.
[113]罗党.灰色决策问题的分析方法研究[D].南京:航空航天大学,2005.
[114]张治强,冯夏庭,杨成祥等.非线性位移时间序列分析的遗传-神经网络方法[J].东北大学学报(自然科学版),1999,20(4):422-425.
[115]陈良洲,施文康.时间序列分析的随机集方法[J].上海交通大学学报,2005,39(3):400-404.
[116]丁明,张立军,吴义纯等.基于时间序列分析的风电场风速预测模型[J].电力自动化设备,2005,25 (8):32-34.
[117]刘树,曹颖琦,张增臣等.我国农业经济灰色系统预测[J].统计与决策,2005,(8):43-45.
[118] Pawlak Z.. Rough Sets: Theoretical Aspects of Reasoning about Data. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publisher, 1991.
[119]李金锋,黄崇福,宗恬.反精确现象与形式化研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2005,25(4):128-132.
[120]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕等.灰色系统理论及其应用(第五版)[M].北京:科学出版社,2010.
[121]邓聚龙.灰色预测与决策[M].武汉:华中工学院出版社, 1988:97-190.
[122]刘璇,唐慧强,许遐祯等.基于神经网络的农业病虫害损失预测[J].农机化研究,2009,31(4):13-16.
[123]廖飞.灰色系统在我国大豆供需预测中的应用[J].安徽农业科学,2009,37(22):10329-10330.
[124]张举,丁宏伟.灰色拓扑预测方法在黑河出山径流量预报中的应用[J].干旱区地理,2005,28(6):751-755.
[125]朱春江,唐德善,马文斌等.基于灰色理论和BP神经网络预测观光农业旅游人数的研究[J].安徽农业科学,2006,34(4):612-614.
[126]高雅.短时交通流预测模型及预测方法的研究[D].华东师范大学,2011.
[127]徐泽水.不确定多属性决策方法及其应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2004.
[128] PENG Ying-qiong; WANG Ying-long; TANG Jian-jun.A Study on Rice Pest Insect and Disease Diagnosis Expert System Based on B/S Mode[J].Acta Agriculturae Universitatis Jiangxiensis. Vo.l 30,No. 6,Dec., 2008.1157-1160
[129] Li Jingtao; Gu Lin; Xie Wen; Zou Ping; Fu Yang; Yang Yanli.Dynamic expert support degree method for group decision making of agricultural diseases forecasting system[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering. Vol.26 Supp.1.Oct
[130] HU Xiaoping, CHEN Jing, ZHOU Shutao.Simulation System for Apple Scab Epidemic in Spring on Arid Plateau of Weibei[J]. Acta Agriculturae Boreali-Occidentalis Sinica, Vol.18,No.5.May,2009.127-132
[131] SI Li-li CAO Ke-qiang LIU Jia-peng.Establishment of a real-time monitoring and forecasting system on main crop diseases and pests of China based on GIS[J]. Acta Phytophylacica Sinica. Vol.l33.No. 3.Sept.2006.282-286.
[132]邱菀华.管理决策与应用熵学[M].北京:机械工业出版社.2002.
[133]王应明.AHP最小二乘排序方法及其算法研究[J].应用数学与计算数学学报,1997,11(1):1-9.
[134]董文泉.数量化理论及其应用[M].吉林人民出版社.1979.
[135]曹若彬.果树病理学第1版[M].北京:中国农业出版社.1997.
[136]陈水利,李敬功,王向公.模糊集理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2005.
[137]侯丽薇,孙立城,穆维松.苹果产量的神经网络预测模型[J].中国农业大学学报(社科版).2001,01:51-53.
[138]罗承忠.模糊集引论[M].北京师范大学出版社.2005.
[139]王学萌.灰色系统方法简明教程[M].成都:成都科技大学出版社.1993.
[140]魏存平,邱菀华,王新哲.一种新的模糊群体决策方法[J].系统工程理论与实践.2001,21(7):81-86.
[141]徐泽水,达庆利.混合判断矩阵排序的线性目标规划法[J].管理科学学报.2002,5(6):24-28.
[142]徐泽水.基于期望值的模糊多属性决策法及其应用[J].系统工程理论与实践.2004,24(1):109-119.
[143]窦连登,张红军.苹果园主要病虫害预测监测方法及防治指标[J].果树医院.2011,5:36-37.
[144]仇贵生,李美娜等.苹果主要病虫害的预测预报、防治适期及药剂选择[J].中国植保导刊.2006,6;31-33
[145] Zacharia JT, Kishmbam A, Masahikoh.Biota uptake ofpesticides by selected plant species; the case study of Kilombero sugarcanep lantations in MorogoroRegion, Tanzania [J].Pesticide Biochemistry and Physiology, 2010,97:71-75.
[146]华小梅,江希流.我国农药环境优先控制品种的筛选[J].环境保护.2001,(6):35-39.
[147]梁魁景,王树桐,胡同乐等.河北省苹果主要病虫害发生现状调查[J].植物保护.2010,36(5)123-127.
[148]丁素明,张晓辛.农药使用的污染因素及控制途径[J].中国农机化2010,(1): 32-34,37.
[149]杨仁斌,彭娟莹,袁芳.农药在环境中的水解途径[J].农业环境科学学报2006,25:389-391.
[150]赵丽琴,郭玉明,张培增等.小麦免耕播种机性能指标的关联度分析与灰色聚类评估[J].农业工程学报.2011,27(9):54-57.
[151]曹明霞.灰色关联度模型正负性问题的研究及其改进[J].系统工程与电子技术,2008,30(6):1086-1088