煤矿安全影响因子的系统分析及其系统动力学仿真研究
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摘要
煤炭行业是我国的支柱产业,我国能源消耗的三分之二都来自煤炭。伴随着煤炭开采量的不断增加,安全问题变得越来越突出,重大特大事故时有发生。安全,是当今世界人们普遍关心的一个重大课题。安全历来就是煤矿生产的头等大事,煤矿事故频繁发生是我国煤矿生产安全管理工作面临的一个重大难题。本文研究旨在探求煤矿事故发生的深层原因,分析煤矿安全系统的复杂层级关系,运用数学模型方法预测煤矿安全水平,以指导我国煤矿安全生产工作,预防煤矿事故的发生,从而改善我国煤矿安全生产状况,保障广大煤矿职工的人身安全。
本文剖析了大量煤矿典型事故,通过专家问卷和网络问卷调查的信息补充,以事故分析理论和系统思考为基础,结合我国煤矿事故发生的规律,构建了煤矿安全影响因子的复杂因果关系体系,并采用解释结构模型理论和方法,建立了符合我国实际的煤矿安全影响因素的层级递阶关系图,进一步揭示我国煤矿事故的深层原因。
在系统分析我国煤矿安全影响因子体系的基础上,应用系统动力学(SD)的理论和建模方法,建立了相应的煤矿安全系统仿真模型,运行系统动力学仿真软件Venshn_PLE,通过仿真子系统的安全水平,求出复杂系统中不同影响因子的实际作用率。从经济学的视角,以安全投入为例,调整安全投入额度及影响因子投入比例,仿真观测安全投入与系统安全水平的相关度,并提出了多种决策方案,应用具体案例加以对比分析,预测煤矿安全水平的未来发展趋势,有助于煤矿事故防范长效机制的建立。
Coal mining is a major industry in China, and coal provides two-thirds of our energy sources. With the increase of coal production, major accidents take place frequently, resulting in serious property and life losses. Therefore, the problem of safty becomes more and more significant, and draws worldwide concerns. Safty in production has been the first concern in coalmines. However, frequent accidents in coalmines have made it a tough task in the management of coalmine safty. This paper aims at seeking the root causes of coalmine accidents, analysing the complicated relationship of coalmine safty systems, predicting the level of coal mine safety by applying mathematical models, so as to guide coal mine safety in production, prevent coalmine accidents, improve safety levels in production and protect personal safety of the coalminers.
This paper analyzes a large number of typical coalmine accidents, supplemented by information collected through questionnaires on relevant experts and through internet. Based on accident analyzing theory and systematic thinking, combined with the factors related to coalmine accidents, our research applies the interpretive structural model theory and method in building a hierarchical relationship in line with the actual level of coalmine safety factors for our country, to clarify the underlying root causes of coalmine accidents in China.
Using system dynamics (SD) theory and method, based on systematic analysis of the impacting factors in coalmine safty, this paper sets up the corresponding simulation model for coal mine safety system, using SD modeling technology with the SD simulation software Vensim_PLE, gets the actual potency of different factors in complex system through simulation of subsystems. What's more, from the economic point of view, taking safe input for instance, this paper simulates coalmine safety level for some coalmines to verify the relationship between safty investment and system security level, and uses comparative cases to analyze and predict the future development trend of the level of coalmine safety, which is conducive to provide a scientific basis for coal mining enterprise management decision on long-term mechanism and countermeasures of preventing accidents in coalmines in China.
本文剖析了大量煤矿典型事故,通过专家问卷和网络问卷调查的信息补充,以事故分析理论和系统思考为基础,结合我国煤矿事故发生的规律,构建了煤矿安全影响因子的复杂因果关系体系,并采用解释结构模型理论和方法,建立了符合我国实际的煤矿安全影响因素的层级递阶关系图,进一步揭示我国煤矿事故的深层原因。
在系统分析我国煤矿安全影响因子体系的基础上,应用系统动力学(SD)的理论和建模方法,建立了相应的煤矿安全系统仿真模型,运行系统动力学仿真软件Venshn_PLE,通过仿真子系统的安全水平,求出复杂系统中不同影响因子的实际作用率。从经济学的视角,以安全投入为例,调整安全投入额度及影响因子投入比例,仿真观测安全投入与系统安全水平的相关度,并提出了多种决策方案,应用具体案例加以对比分析,预测煤矿安全水平的未来发展趋势,有助于煤矿事故防范长效机制的建立。
Coal mining is a major industry in China, and coal provides two-thirds of our energy sources. With the increase of coal production, major accidents take place frequently, resulting in serious property and life losses. Therefore, the problem of safty becomes more and more significant, and draws worldwide concerns. Safty in production has been the first concern in coalmines. However, frequent accidents in coalmines have made it a tough task in the management of coalmine safty. This paper aims at seeking the root causes of coalmine accidents, analysing the complicated relationship of coalmine safty systems, predicting the level of coal mine safety by applying mathematical models, so as to guide coal mine safety in production, prevent coalmine accidents, improve safety levels in production and protect personal safety of the coalminers.
This paper analyzes a large number of typical coalmine accidents, supplemented by information collected through questionnaires on relevant experts and through internet. Based on accident analyzing theory and systematic thinking, combined with the factors related to coalmine accidents, our research applies the interpretive structural model theory and method in building a hierarchical relationship in line with the actual level of coalmine safety factors for our country, to clarify the underlying root causes of coalmine accidents in China.
Using system dynamics (SD) theory and method, based on systematic analysis of the impacting factors in coalmine safty, this paper sets up the corresponding simulation model for coal mine safety system, using SD modeling technology with the SD simulation software Vensim_PLE, gets the actual potency of different factors in complex system through simulation of subsystems. What's more, from the economic point of view, taking safe input for instance, this paper simulates coalmine safety level for some coalmines to verify the relationship between safty investment and system security level, and uses comparative cases to analyze and predict the future development trend of the level of coalmine safety, which is conducive to provide a scientific basis for coal mining enterprise management decision on long-term mechanism and countermeasures of preventing accidents in coalmines in China.
引文
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