中国制造业在国际垂直专业化分工体系中的地位
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摘要
当前,全球生产共享将世界各国联系起来,形成一个庞大的国际垂直专业化分工体系,在这个体系中各国所处的生产环节、扮演的角色和地位是不同的,本文从增加值这一新的视角探讨和分析中国制造业的国际分工地位问题。
随着融入国际垂直专业化体系的程度不断加深,中国制造业出口增长迅速,并具有明显的垂直专业化特征,即出口中包含大量他国创造的价值。在这种情况下,传统的衡量国际分工地位的指标在分析新形势下的国际分工地位时不免出现偏颇。如何正确看待中国的出口规模、合理审视中国制造业的国际分工地位,成为当前的重要课题。本文从增加值角度,在一般均衡框架下,通过对“价值流”的衡量和分析,重新审视了中国制造业在国际垂直专业化分工体系中的地位。文章的结构安排与主要内容如下：
第一章为导论,阐述了本文的研究背景和意义,对全球垂直专业化分工体系中分工地位的相关研究文献作了综述,介绍了本文的研究思路和方法、创新和不足,并对文中所用数据作了说明。
第二章为理论基础。阐释了垂直专业化分工的基础和动因,并构建了一个两个国家、两种要素、两种商品的一般均衡分析框架,用以分析垂直专业化分工、贸易和附加值的变动。理论分析表明,要素禀赋仍然是垂直专业化分工的基础,资本丰裕的国家会专业化从事资本密集型环节的生产,而劳动丰裕的国家则进口资本密集型环节中间品,从事加工组装这种劳动密集型生产环节,出口最终产品。最终品价格的上升会使劳动密集型国家在产品价值中的增加值比重降低,从而使垂直专业化中从事下游环节的国家处于不利地位。
第三章分析了中国制造业参与国际垂直专业化的基础和条件。这一部分对应于前文垂直专业化动因的理论分析,从要素禀赋、技术和规模经济、制度和交易成本几个方面考察了中国参与国际垂直专业化分工的基础。研究表明,劳动力成本优势、产业聚集、关税的降低和政策优惠措施对中国制造业融入国际垂直专业化分工体系起到了极大的促进作用。
第四章测度了中国制造业参与国际垂直专业化分工的程度及其在国际垂直专业化体系中位置。中国制造业参与国际垂直专业化分工的程度在逐步提高,并具有明显的高技术特征。中国制造业在垂直专业化分工体系中的位置是通过勾勒中国制造业参与的垂直专业化分工链条和勾画制造业国际垂直专业化分工网络来反映的。研究发现,第一,中国制造业参与的国际垂直专业化分工链条有从“三角模式”向“欧美——中国——欧美”模式转变的态势；第二,国际垂直专业化分工网络具有明显的区块特征,各区块间通过主要国家／地区的联系而连接,该网络是动态演变的,在这个演变过程中,中国在其中的角色越来越重要、越来越巩固；第三,在国际垂直专业化体系中,中国具有影响力的制造业行业主要包括焦炭、石油炼制和核燃料行业、化学和化工产品行业、橡胶和塑料行业和电子和光学设备行业;第四,全球金融危机影响了制造业国际垂直专业化分工网络的布局,可能会引发全球分工格局的调整。
第五章对中国制造业在国际垂直专业化分工体系中的地位作了实证研究。本部分的研究基于“价值流”的视角,从价值流出和价值流入两个角度作了考察,具体包括以下三个方面的分析：第一,从增加值贸易角度对中国制造业出口规模重新进行了评估,发现用增加值贸易衡量,中国制造业出口规模下降了,中高和高技术制造业行业尤甚,反映出中高和高技术制造业在国际分工中的地位并没有传统贸易方法衡量的那么高。第二,在对增加值贸易加以计算的基础上,利用CA指数和CTB指数衡量中国制造业的国际竞争力水平,结果表明中国制造业的国际竞争力主要表现在低技术制造业行业上,尽管国际竞争力水平(尤其是中高和高技术制造业行业)在不断提升,但与国际垂直专业化分工网络上其他主要国家相比,国际竞争力水平并不高,进一步验证了中国制造业国际分工地位并不高的事实。第三,利用全球价值链收入这一指标,分析中国制造业在国际垂直专业化分工体系中的要素收益。从总额上看,中国制造业在国际垂直专业化分工体系中的获益不断增加且占全球整体的份额也在扩大,并能够和德国、美国这样的发达国家竞争。然而,从人均获益的角度,中国制造业在国际垂直专业化分工体系中的获益水平不管是在总体上还是在分技术类别上均是最低的,反映出中国制造业在全球价值链上的获益是依赖于高投入而得的,从这个角度看分工地位并不高。
第六章是全文的主要结论和政策建议。总览全文,可以发现,中国制造业在国际垂直专业化分工体系中的地位在提升,但是和其他国家相比国际分工地位并不高。全球金融危机后,面临潜在的国际分工格局新调整,中国制造业要提高国际分工地位,只有向国际分工体系的价值链高端环节爬升。
Now days, countries in the world are linked by global production sharing and integrated into a huge international vertical specialization system. In this system countries are in different location, play different roles and the status is different. Based on value added, a new angle, this study discusses and analyzes China's manufacturing international division of labor status.
As Chinese manufacturing is integrated into the international vertical specialization system deepening and deepening, its export grows rapidly, and has the obvious characteristics of vertical specialization:exported good contains much value created by other countries. Under such circumstances, the traditional measures of international division of labor lose generality. How to correctly measure China's export scale and reasonably judge China's status in the international division of labor are currently important topics. In this paper, under the general equilibrium framework, based on the measurement and analysis of "value stream", the author analyzes Chinese manufacturing's international division of labor status in the international vertical specialization system. The structures and contents of this article are as follows:
Chapter1is introduction. In this part, the author elaborates the research backgrounds and significances of this topic and summarizes the related researches, and then puts forward research perspectives, introduces the research framework and methods, major innovations and some directions for further research, and explains the dates this dissertation mainly used.
Chapter2is theoretical basis. This part introduces the bases and motivations of vertical specialization, and builds a general equilibrium analysis framework of two countries, two goods and two factors to analyze the changes of division of labor, trade and value added in the vertical specialization. Theoretical analysis shows that factor endowments are still the bases of vertical specialization; countries abundant in capital will specialize in capital-intensive production stage and countries abundant in labor import the intermediates produced by capital-abundant countries, and are engaged in labor-intensive production stage such as processing and assembling to produce final products for export. When the price of final product rises, the value added share of labor-abundant countries will reduce, that is to say, countries engaged in production of downstream have disadvantages in the vertical specialization.
Chapter3is focused on the bases for China's manufacturing to participate in the international vertical specialization system. In this section, the author elaborates the factors from three aspects:factor endowments, technology and economies of scale, institution and transaction costs. The study shows and finds that labor cost advantage, industry clustering, tariff reduction and preferential policies are incentives for China's manufacturing integrated into international vertical specialization system.
Chapter4is empirical analysis of the degree and the position of Chinese manufacturing in the international vertical specialization system. Chinese manufacturing's integration into the international vertical specialization is deepening and deepening, and has obvious characteristics of high technology. By outlining the chain of vertical specialization in Chinese manufacturing and mapping manufacturing's international vertical specialization network, the author analyzes China's position in the international vertical specialization system. The study shows that:first, the chain is shifting from "triangle pattern" to "EU/US-China-EU/US". Second, the international vertical specialization network is made up of "blocks", and the blocks are connected by major countries in the blocks and the network is dynamic, in which China is more and more important. Third, there are four main sectors (industries):coke, refined petroleum and nuclear fuel, chemicals and chemical products, rubber and plastics, electrical and optical equipment, all of which influence more in the system of international vertical specialization than other industries. Fourthly, the global financial crisis has affected the layout of international vertical specialization network, and may lead to the adjustment of international division of labor.
Chapter5is empirical study on Chinese manufacturing's international division of labor status from the perspective of "value stream". The empirical study includes three aspects:first, the author revalues the scale of Chinese manufacturing exports with the method of trade in value added, and the results show that Chinese export scale shrinks, especially in medium-high&high-technology manufacturing, which reflects China's status in the international division of labour is not so high as measured with the traditional "total export statistical method". Second, the author measures China's manufacturing international competitiveness with the index of CA and CTB which are calculated by using the data of trade in value added, and the results show the international competitiveness of China's manufacturing is mainly embodied in the low technology manufacturing, China manufacture's international competitiveness level (especially the middle and high technology manufacturing) is rising, but is not so high compared with other major countries in the international vertical specialization system, which proves the fact that Chinese manufacturing's international division of labor status is not high. Third, the author analyzes factors income by calculating the GVC income. The results show that the China's total GVC income is increasing and can compete with developed economies such as Germany and the US, but measured with GVC income per capita, factors income of manufacturing, in total or every type of technologies, are lowest compared with other major countries, which shows Chinese gains in the global value chain come from high input, so the division of labor status is not high.
The last part is main conclusions and policy recommendations. The division of labor status of China's manufacturing is rising in the international vertical specialization system, but is still low compared with other countries. Faced with potential adjustment of international division of labor in the post-crisis era, to promote the international division of labor status of China's manufacturing, the only way is to climb up to the upstream of global value chain and grasp the key link in international vertical specialization.
随着融入国际垂直专业化体系的程度不断加深,中国制造业出口增长迅速,并具有明显的垂直专业化特征,即出口中包含大量他国创造的价值。在这种情况下,传统的衡量国际分工地位的指标在分析新形势下的国际分工地位时不免出现偏颇。如何正确看待中国的出口规模、合理审视中国制造业的国际分工地位,成为当前的重要课题。本文从增加值角度,在一般均衡框架下,通过对“价值流”的衡量和分析,重新审视了中国制造业在国际垂直专业化分工体系中的地位。文章的结构安排与主要内容如下：
第一章为导论,阐述了本文的研究背景和意义,对全球垂直专业化分工体系中分工地位的相关研究文献作了综述,介绍了本文的研究思路和方法、创新和不足,并对文中所用数据作了说明。
第二章为理论基础。阐释了垂直专业化分工的基础和动因,并构建了一个两个国家、两种要素、两种商品的一般均衡分析框架,用以分析垂直专业化分工、贸易和附加值的变动。理论分析表明,要素禀赋仍然是垂直专业化分工的基础,资本丰裕的国家会专业化从事资本密集型环节的生产,而劳动丰裕的国家则进口资本密集型环节中间品,从事加工组装这种劳动密集型生产环节,出口最终产品。最终品价格的上升会使劳动密集型国家在产品价值中的增加值比重降低,从而使垂直专业化中从事下游环节的国家处于不利地位。
第三章分析了中国制造业参与国际垂直专业化的基础和条件。这一部分对应于前文垂直专业化动因的理论分析,从要素禀赋、技术和规模经济、制度和交易成本几个方面考察了中国参与国际垂直专业化分工的基础。研究表明,劳动力成本优势、产业聚集、关税的降低和政策优惠措施对中国制造业融入国际垂直专业化分工体系起到了极大的促进作用。
第四章测度了中国制造业参与国际垂直专业化分工的程度及其在国际垂直专业化体系中位置。中国制造业参与国际垂直专业化分工的程度在逐步提高,并具有明显的高技术特征。中国制造业在垂直专业化分工体系中的位置是通过勾勒中国制造业参与的垂直专业化分工链条和勾画制造业国际垂直专业化分工网络来反映的。研究发现,第一,中国制造业参与的国际垂直专业化分工链条有从“三角模式”向“欧美——中国——欧美”模式转变的态势；第二,国际垂直专业化分工网络具有明显的区块特征,各区块间通过主要国家／地区的联系而连接,该网络是动态演变的,在这个演变过程中,中国在其中的角色越来越重要、越来越巩固；第三,在国际垂直专业化体系中,中国具有影响力的制造业行业主要包括焦炭、石油炼制和核燃料行业、化学和化工产品行业、橡胶和塑料行业和电子和光学设备行业;第四,全球金融危机影响了制造业国际垂直专业化分工网络的布局,可能会引发全球分工格局的调整。
第五章对中国制造业在国际垂直专业化分工体系中的地位作了实证研究。本部分的研究基于“价值流”的视角,从价值流出和价值流入两个角度作了考察,具体包括以下三个方面的分析：第一,从增加值贸易角度对中国制造业出口规模重新进行了评估,发现用增加值贸易衡量,中国制造业出口规模下降了,中高和高技术制造业行业尤甚,反映出中高和高技术制造业在国际分工中的地位并没有传统贸易方法衡量的那么高。第二,在对增加值贸易加以计算的基础上,利用CA指数和CTB指数衡量中国制造业的国际竞争力水平,结果表明中国制造业的国际竞争力主要表现在低技术制造业行业上,尽管国际竞争力水平(尤其是中高和高技术制造业行业)在不断提升,但与国际垂直专业化分工网络上其他主要国家相比,国际竞争力水平并不高,进一步验证了中国制造业国际分工地位并不高的事实。第三,利用全球价值链收入这一指标,分析中国制造业在国际垂直专业化分工体系中的要素收益。从总额上看,中国制造业在国际垂直专业化分工体系中的获益不断增加且占全球整体的份额也在扩大,并能够和德国、美国这样的发达国家竞争。然而,从人均获益的角度,中国制造业在国际垂直专业化分工体系中的获益水平不管是在总体上还是在分技术类别上均是最低的,反映出中国制造业在全球价值链上的获益是依赖于高投入而得的,从这个角度看分工地位并不高。
第六章是全文的主要结论和政策建议。总览全文,可以发现,中国制造业在国际垂直专业化分工体系中的地位在提升,但是和其他国家相比国际分工地位并不高。全球金融危机后,面临潜在的国际分工格局新调整,中国制造业要提高国际分工地位,只有向国际分工体系的价值链高端环节爬升。
Now days, countries in the world are linked by global production sharing and integrated into a huge international vertical specialization system. In this system countries are in different location, play different roles and the status is different. Based on value added, a new angle, this study discusses and analyzes China's manufacturing international division of labor status.
As Chinese manufacturing is integrated into the international vertical specialization system deepening and deepening, its export grows rapidly, and has the obvious characteristics of vertical specialization:exported good contains much value created by other countries. Under such circumstances, the traditional measures of international division of labor lose generality. How to correctly measure China's export scale and reasonably judge China's status in the international division of labor are currently important topics. In this paper, under the general equilibrium framework, based on the measurement and analysis of "value stream", the author analyzes Chinese manufacturing's international division of labor status in the international vertical specialization system. The structures and contents of this article are as follows:
Chapter1is introduction. In this part, the author elaborates the research backgrounds and significances of this topic and summarizes the related researches, and then puts forward research perspectives, introduces the research framework and methods, major innovations and some directions for further research, and explains the dates this dissertation mainly used.
Chapter2is theoretical basis. This part introduces the bases and motivations of vertical specialization, and builds a general equilibrium analysis framework of two countries, two goods and two factors to analyze the changes of division of labor, trade and value added in the vertical specialization. Theoretical analysis shows that factor endowments are still the bases of vertical specialization; countries abundant in capital will specialize in capital-intensive production stage and countries abundant in labor import the intermediates produced by capital-abundant countries, and are engaged in labor-intensive production stage such as processing and assembling to produce final products for export. When the price of final product rises, the value added share of labor-abundant countries will reduce, that is to say, countries engaged in production of downstream have disadvantages in the vertical specialization.
Chapter3is focused on the bases for China's manufacturing to participate in the international vertical specialization system. In this section, the author elaborates the factors from three aspects:factor endowments, technology and economies of scale, institution and transaction costs. The study shows and finds that labor cost advantage, industry clustering, tariff reduction and preferential policies are incentives for China's manufacturing integrated into international vertical specialization system.
Chapter4is empirical analysis of the degree and the position of Chinese manufacturing in the international vertical specialization system. Chinese manufacturing's integration into the international vertical specialization is deepening and deepening, and has obvious characteristics of high technology. By outlining the chain of vertical specialization in Chinese manufacturing and mapping manufacturing's international vertical specialization network, the author analyzes China's position in the international vertical specialization system. The study shows that:first, the chain is shifting from "triangle pattern" to "EU/US-China-EU/US". Second, the international vertical specialization network is made up of "blocks", and the blocks are connected by major countries in the blocks and the network is dynamic, in which China is more and more important. Third, there are four main sectors (industries):coke, refined petroleum and nuclear fuel, chemicals and chemical products, rubber and plastics, electrical and optical equipment, all of which influence more in the system of international vertical specialization than other industries. Fourthly, the global financial crisis has affected the layout of international vertical specialization network, and may lead to the adjustment of international division of labor.
Chapter5is empirical study on Chinese manufacturing's international division of labor status from the perspective of "value stream". The empirical study includes three aspects:first, the author revalues the scale of Chinese manufacturing exports with the method of trade in value added, and the results show that Chinese export scale shrinks, especially in medium-high&high-technology manufacturing, which reflects China's status in the international division of labour is not so high as measured with the traditional "total export statistical method". Second, the author measures China's manufacturing international competitiveness with the index of CA and CTB which are calculated by using the data of trade in value added, and the results show the international competitiveness of China's manufacturing is mainly embodied in the low technology manufacturing, China manufacture's international competitiveness level (especially the middle and high technology manufacturing) is rising, but is not so high compared with other major countries in the international vertical specialization system, which proves the fact that Chinese manufacturing's international division of labor status is not high. Third, the author analyzes factors income by calculating the GVC income. The results show that the China's total GVC income is increasing and can compete with developed economies such as Germany and the US, but measured with GVC income per capita, factors income of manufacturing, in total or every type of technologies, are lowest compared with other major countries, which shows Chinese gains in the global value chain come from high input, so the division of labor status is not high.
The last part is main conclusions and policy recommendations. The division of labor status of China's manufacturing is rising in the international vertical specialization system, but is still low compared with other countries. Faced with potential adjustment of international division of labor in the post-crisis era, to promote the international division of labor status of China's manufacturing, the only way is to climb up to the upstream of global value chain and grasp the key link in international vertical specialization.
引文
2资料来源：IDE-JETRO. Trade Patterns and Global Value Chains in East Asia:From Trade in Goods to Trade in Tasks. P95.
3 Lee Branstetter, Nicholas Lardy. China's Embrace of Globalization. NBER Working Paper No.12373,2006.
4 H. R. Varian. An iPod has global value:Ask the (many) countries that make it. New York Times, June 28, 2007.
8《中国科技发展60年》第254页,中华人民共和国科技部http://www.most.gov.cn/kjfz/kjxz/。
10部门(行业)类型的划分参考盛斌,马涛.中间产品贸易对中国劳动力需求变化的影响：基于工业部门动态面板数据的分析.世界经济,2008(3)：12-20。
13人民日报,2012年9月28日第05版。
20数据来源于《中华人民共和国年鉴2012》。
21数据来源于国家统计数据库http://219.235.129.58/welcome.do。
24数据来源于《中国电子信息产业统计年鉴(综合篇)2010》
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3 Lee Branstetter, Nicholas Lardy. China's Embrace of Globalization. NBER Working Paper No.12373,2006.
4 H. R. Varian. An iPod has global value:Ask the (many) countries that make it. New York Times, June 28, 2007.
8《中国科技发展60年》第254页,中华人民共和国科技部http://www.most.gov.cn/kjfz/kjxz/。
10部门(行业)类型的划分参考盛斌,马涛.中间产品贸易对中国劳动力需求变化的影响：基于工业部门动态面板数据的分析.世界经济,2008(3)：12-20。
13人民日报,2012年9月28日第05版。
20数据来源于《中华人民共和国年鉴2012》。
21数据来源于国家统计数据库http://219.235.129.58/welcome.do。
24数据来源于《中国电子信息产业统计年鉴(综合篇)2010》
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