基于熵理论的敏捷供应链供需协作模式与脆弱性研究
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摘要
随着人类社会进入21世纪,产品的生产模式和市场销售形式都发生了巨大的变化。传统供应链由于缺乏自主性和敏捷性,难以满足企业动态调整的需求。因此,如何保持供应链的敏捷性,实现供应链的快速响应和动态调整,已经成为企业能否在竞争中立于不败的关键因素之一。但当前对于供应链的响应性要求不仅来自于供应链系统内部的变动,还有系统外不断变化的环境风险,这就要求敏捷供应链对市场的快速变化做出敏捷反应的同时,又要使供应链在应对内、外部风险扰动时保持敏捷而不脆弱。因此有必要对敏捷供应链的供需协作模式及风险抵御能力进行研究。
1、以敏捷供应链基本供需协作模式为基础,系统地从信息共享、权利结构与生产特点的三维角度分析敏捷供应链协作模式的发展演变,阐述供需双方的合作博奕与风险利益分配是敏捷供应链供需协作模式形成的主要驱动力,以核心装配制造企业与其上游供应商的供需关系为研究主体,认为敏捷供应链供需协作模式的全面研究应该包括供需协作关系的构建过程和供需协作伙伴的评价与选择。
(1)目前敏捷供应链供需协作关系的建立过程多为供需协作伙伴评价与选择的步骤或评价方法的步骤,很少有人对敏捷供应链协作关系构建的多阶段、跨部门特性进行深入地研究。因此在前人研究的供应链协作伙伴关系建立过程的基础上,针对核心装配制造企业对供应商选择与资格认证的过程,分析建立供需协作关系所要注意的问题,明确定义参与决策的各部门角色及其责任,遵循决策过程顺序,将整个决策过程分为四个阶段,按不同阶段以流程图形式描述。
(2)供需协作伙伴的选择要始于对其科学合理的评价。从敏捷供应链的特点出发,构建集供应商传统核心能力、风险控制能力和敏捷响应能力为一体的综合指标体系,全面解释各指标的含义及量化标准。考虑供应商评价问题是一个混合型多属性群决策问题,系统地引入决策熵和信息熵理论,提出供应商评价的混合型多属性群决策评价方法,并利用系统参数ρ和权重折衷系数β对方案排序进行敏感性分析。
(3)模拟算例从专家权重能力的获取、混合型指标的处理、主客观权重的确定与集结及方案敏感性分析分步验证混合型多属性群决策评价的过程。结果表明核心装配制造企业在与供应商建立供需协作关系时,采用基于熵理论的供应商评价的混合型多属性群决策评价方法科学可行。
2、敏捷供应链供需协作模式确定后,由于外部环境的不确定性和供需合作关系管理者的精益化,使敏捷供应链系统越来越脆弱,呈现出一个急需研究解决的问题就是如何度量敏捷供应链系统的抵御风险的能力。
(1)针对敏捷供应链系统的复杂性,运用信息熵理论对敏捷供应链系统的脆弱性进行熵分析,提出敏捷供应链系统脆弱性及脆弱熵的定义,分析系统脆弱性与稳定性之间的关系。
(2)利用影响矩阵描述系统成员生产要素所受外部扰动的直接与间接影响,引入脆弱熵构建敏捷供应链系统抵御风险能力的度量模型,认为当敏捷供应链系统内各成员所受到的扰动平均时,系统最脆弱,供应链抵御风险的能力为零。
(3)应用模拟算例对模型进行验证。针对某一突发事件(交通事故)对系统的扰动作用,对已建立供需协作关系的敏捷供应链成员及系统进行脆弱性的度量,并结合系统参数τ对度量结果作敏感性分析,提出改善系统脆弱性的策略。
最后,设计敏捷供应链协作管理系统,提出协作管理系统体系结构,详细阐述系统内两大子系统包含的系统模块及其功能结构,利用实例对模块进行验证,结果可行有效。
As human society entered the 21st century, the production patterns and marketing forms have undergone tremendous changes. The traditional supply chain due to lack of autonomy and agility, it is difficult to meet the business needs of dynamic adjustment. Therefore, how to maintain the supply chain agility and to achieve supply chain's rapid response and dynamic adjustment, has become a key factor that business can stand in the competition undefeated. However, the current requirements to the supply chain response, are not only from within the system changes, but also from changing environmental risk outside the system, which requires agile supply chain make quick response to rapid changes in the market as well as maintain agility and not vulnerability in response to risks. This paper was the research on supply-demand cooperating pattern(SDCP) and ability to resist risks in the agile supply chain at the initial construction.
1. This paper, based on the basic supply-demand cooperating pattern in agile supply chain, systematically analyzed development and evolvement of supply-demand cooperating pattern in agile supply chain from three-dimensional view about the information-sharing, the power structure and production characteristics, further explained that the main driving force constructing supply-demand cooperating pattern in agile supply chain were cooperative game and risks&benefits distribution. This paper selected supply-demand relationships between the core assembly manufacturing enterprise and its suppliers as study subjects, thought of agile supply chain SDCP comprehensive research should include the process of constructing supply-demand relationships and the evaluation and selection of cooperative partners.
(1) Currently the researches about constructing process of supply-demand relationships in agile supply chain mostly were the supply-demand partners evaluation and selection steps or evaluation method steps, almost no one committed to study deeply the multi-stage, cross-departmental characteristics constructing agile supply chain cooperative relationships. Therefore on the basis of previous research, this paper studied core assemble manufacturing enterprise's supplier selection and certification process, analyzed the problem that should pay attention during constructing supply-demand cooperating relationship, clearly defined role and responsibility of decision-making departments, followed the decision-making process, put the whole decision-making process to divide into four stages that were described by flow chart.
(2) The selection of supply-demand cooperative partnership began its scientific and rational assessment. This paper, combining with the characteristics of agile supply chain, built traditional core competencies, risk control ability and agility respond capacity integrated index system and comprehensive explained the meaning of each index and quantitative criteria. Considering the supplier evaluation is a hybrid multi-attribute group decision-making problem, this paper systematic introduced decision-making entropy and information entropy theory and proposed hybrid multi-attribute group decision-making supplier evaluation methods. Finally this paper used system parameters p and weight factorsβto sensitivity analysis for ranking results.
(3) The application examples validatd hybrid multi-attribute group decision-making evaluation process step by step from accessing the expert ability, mixed indicators treatment, subjective and objective weights acquisition and integration to the sensitivity analysis. The results showed that evaluation method is scientific and reasonable when constructing cooperative partnership for the core assembly manufacturer and its suppliers
2. After agile supply chain SDCP was determined, due to the uncertainty of external environment and lean management of supply-demand relationship, agile supply chain system became more and more vulnerability. So it is urgent to study and solve the problem that is how to measure the agile supply chain system resisting risks.
(1) This paper, combining agile supply chain system complexity, proposed the definition of agile supply chain system vulnerability, using information entropy theory to analysis agile supply chain system vulnerability put forward the definition of vulnerability entropy and analyzed the relationship between system vulnerability and stability.
(2) Using influence matrix to describe the direct and indirect effects among each member' production factors suffered from the system external disturbance. Combining with vulnerability entropy the paper built agile supply chain system measurement model on the ability to withstand external risk, proposed that when each member in the agile supply chain system suffered the average disturbance, the system achieved the most vulnerable state, and the ability to resist external risks dropped to zero.
(3) Supposed an emergency (traffic accident) on the system disturbance effects verified vulnerability measurement model. Then the paper combined with the system parametersτon the measurement results for sensitivity analysis, and further put forward to improve the system vulnerability strategies.
Finally, the paper designed collaborative management information system for agile supply chain, laying out a collaborative management system structure, and detailed the two major sub-system modules and functional structure. Finally a practical example validated the feasibility and effectiveness of the methods and models proposed by the paper.
1、以敏捷供应链基本供需协作模式为基础,系统地从信息共享、权利结构与生产特点的三维角度分析敏捷供应链协作模式的发展演变,阐述供需双方的合作博奕与风险利益分配是敏捷供应链供需协作模式形成的主要驱动力,以核心装配制造企业与其上游供应商的供需关系为研究主体,认为敏捷供应链供需协作模式的全面研究应该包括供需协作关系的构建过程和供需协作伙伴的评价与选择。
(1)目前敏捷供应链供需协作关系的建立过程多为供需协作伙伴评价与选择的步骤或评价方法的步骤,很少有人对敏捷供应链协作关系构建的多阶段、跨部门特性进行深入地研究。因此在前人研究的供应链协作伙伴关系建立过程的基础上,针对核心装配制造企业对供应商选择与资格认证的过程,分析建立供需协作关系所要注意的问题,明确定义参与决策的各部门角色及其责任,遵循决策过程顺序,将整个决策过程分为四个阶段,按不同阶段以流程图形式描述。
(2)供需协作伙伴的选择要始于对其科学合理的评价。从敏捷供应链的特点出发,构建集供应商传统核心能力、风险控制能力和敏捷响应能力为一体的综合指标体系,全面解释各指标的含义及量化标准。考虑供应商评价问题是一个混合型多属性群决策问题,系统地引入决策熵和信息熵理论,提出供应商评价的混合型多属性群决策评价方法,并利用系统参数ρ和权重折衷系数β对方案排序进行敏感性分析。
(3)模拟算例从专家权重能力的获取、混合型指标的处理、主客观权重的确定与集结及方案敏感性分析分步验证混合型多属性群决策评价的过程。结果表明核心装配制造企业在与供应商建立供需协作关系时,采用基于熵理论的供应商评价的混合型多属性群决策评价方法科学可行。
2、敏捷供应链供需协作模式确定后,由于外部环境的不确定性和供需合作关系管理者的精益化,使敏捷供应链系统越来越脆弱,呈现出一个急需研究解决的问题就是如何度量敏捷供应链系统的抵御风险的能力。
(1)针对敏捷供应链系统的复杂性,运用信息熵理论对敏捷供应链系统的脆弱性进行熵分析,提出敏捷供应链系统脆弱性及脆弱熵的定义,分析系统脆弱性与稳定性之间的关系。
(2)利用影响矩阵描述系统成员生产要素所受外部扰动的直接与间接影响,引入脆弱熵构建敏捷供应链系统抵御风险能力的度量模型,认为当敏捷供应链系统内各成员所受到的扰动平均时,系统最脆弱,供应链抵御风险的能力为零。
(3)应用模拟算例对模型进行验证。针对某一突发事件(交通事故)对系统的扰动作用,对已建立供需协作关系的敏捷供应链成员及系统进行脆弱性的度量,并结合系统参数τ对度量结果作敏感性分析,提出改善系统脆弱性的策略。
最后,设计敏捷供应链协作管理系统,提出协作管理系统体系结构,详细阐述系统内两大子系统包含的系统模块及其功能结构,利用实例对模块进行验证,结果可行有效。
As human society entered the 21st century, the production patterns and marketing forms have undergone tremendous changes. The traditional supply chain due to lack of autonomy and agility, it is difficult to meet the business needs of dynamic adjustment. Therefore, how to maintain the supply chain agility and to achieve supply chain's rapid response and dynamic adjustment, has become a key factor that business can stand in the competition undefeated. However, the current requirements to the supply chain response, are not only from within the system changes, but also from changing environmental risk outside the system, which requires agile supply chain make quick response to rapid changes in the market as well as maintain agility and not vulnerability in response to risks. This paper was the research on supply-demand cooperating pattern(SDCP) and ability to resist risks in the agile supply chain at the initial construction.
1. This paper, based on the basic supply-demand cooperating pattern in agile supply chain, systematically analyzed development and evolvement of supply-demand cooperating pattern in agile supply chain from three-dimensional view about the information-sharing, the power structure and production characteristics, further explained that the main driving force constructing supply-demand cooperating pattern in agile supply chain were cooperative game and risks&benefits distribution. This paper selected supply-demand relationships between the core assembly manufacturing enterprise and its suppliers as study subjects, thought of agile supply chain SDCP comprehensive research should include the process of constructing supply-demand relationships and the evaluation and selection of cooperative partners.
(1) Currently the researches about constructing process of supply-demand relationships in agile supply chain mostly were the supply-demand partners evaluation and selection steps or evaluation method steps, almost no one committed to study deeply the multi-stage, cross-departmental characteristics constructing agile supply chain cooperative relationships. Therefore on the basis of previous research, this paper studied core assemble manufacturing enterprise's supplier selection and certification process, analyzed the problem that should pay attention during constructing supply-demand cooperating relationship, clearly defined role and responsibility of decision-making departments, followed the decision-making process, put the whole decision-making process to divide into four stages that were described by flow chart.
(2) The selection of supply-demand cooperative partnership began its scientific and rational assessment. This paper, combining with the characteristics of agile supply chain, built traditional core competencies, risk control ability and agility respond capacity integrated index system and comprehensive explained the meaning of each index and quantitative criteria. Considering the supplier evaluation is a hybrid multi-attribute group decision-making problem, this paper systematic introduced decision-making entropy and information entropy theory and proposed hybrid multi-attribute group decision-making supplier evaluation methods. Finally this paper used system parameters p and weight factorsβto sensitivity analysis for ranking results.
(3) The application examples validatd hybrid multi-attribute group decision-making evaluation process step by step from accessing the expert ability, mixed indicators treatment, subjective and objective weights acquisition and integration to the sensitivity analysis. The results showed that evaluation method is scientific and reasonable when constructing cooperative partnership for the core assembly manufacturer and its suppliers
2. After agile supply chain SDCP was determined, due to the uncertainty of external environment and lean management of supply-demand relationship, agile supply chain system became more and more vulnerability. So it is urgent to study and solve the problem that is how to measure the agile supply chain system resisting risks.
(1) This paper, combining agile supply chain system complexity, proposed the definition of agile supply chain system vulnerability, using information entropy theory to analysis agile supply chain system vulnerability put forward the definition of vulnerability entropy and analyzed the relationship between system vulnerability and stability.
(2) Using influence matrix to describe the direct and indirect effects among each member' production factors suffered from the system external disturbance. Combining with vulnerability entropy the paper built agile supply chain system measurement model on the ability to withstand external risk, proposed that when each member in the agile supply chain system suffered the average disturbance, the system achieved the most vulnerable state, and the ability to resist external risks dropped to zero.
(3) Supposed an emergency (traffic accident) on the system disturbance effects verified vulnerability measurement model. Then the paper combined with the system parametersτon the measurement results for sensitivity analysis, and further put forward to improve the system vulnerability strategies.
Finally, the paper designed collaborative management information system for agile supply chain, laying out a collaborative management system structure, and detailed the two major sub-system modules and functional structure. Finally a practical example validated the feasibility and effectiveness of the methods and models proposed by the paper.
引文
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