吉林省农业生产率增长的驱动机制研究
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摘要
随着经济不断发展,生产率增长已成为经济增长的重要基础。在我国经济增长中,全要素生产率的综合贡献率达到30.89%,特别是在改革开放之后,技术进步贡献率显著增大,达到40.95%,已经成为我国经济增长的最重要源泉。我国是农业大国,农业生产率增长是国民财富增长的核心,是经济和社会稳定的关键。然而,1978～2007年中国农业全要素生产率的年均增长率为0.7%,对中国农业产出增长的贡献约为11.3%。可见,改革开放30年间中国农业增长主要还是依靠增加生产要素投入,而不是靠全要素生产率增长,总体上还属于粗放型的农业增长。因此,在我国经济转型的重要时期,面对农业增长由粗放型向集约型增长转变的重要历史任务,深入探讨农业生产率增长问题对于加快发展现代农业,全面建设社会主义新农村具有重要意义。作为我国重要的粮食主产区和农业大省,吉林省技术进步对农业经济增长的贡献越来越显著,1986～2007年期间,吉林省农业技术进步贡献率达到41.92%。但是,也应该看到,由于受农业自身经营规模小、管理水平低、生产条件差等不利因素的困扰,吉林省农业发展后劲不足、农民增收滞缓的问题仍然十分突出。在这种情况下,促进吉林省农业生产率增长既是加快农村经济社会发展的重要途径,也是改变农业落后面貌的当务之急。因此,本文基于经典内生增长理论,构建了农业生产率增长的理论模型;在这个理论框架下,运用Malmquist-Benchmarking模型对吉林省农业生产率增长进行测度与解析;运用VEC模型和Tobit模型实证分析R&D投资、人力资本投资和制度变迁对农业生产率增长的驱动机制,并据此提出了促进农业生产率增长的对策建议。具体来看,本文的主要研究内容包括:
一、农业生产率增长的理论分析框架
在深入研究内生经济增长理论基础上,本研究构建了农业生产率增长的理论模型,从理论上阐明了农业生产率增长受到R&D投资、人力资本及制度变迁的正向驱动。这个理论模型为后续研究提供了理论分析框架,确定了针对R&D投资、人力资本、制度变迁等重要因素的实证研究方向。
二、吉林省农业生产率的测度与解析
在理论研究基础上,本研究运用非参数Malmquist指数法对吉林省农业生产率进行测度,不仅对三种不同的Malmquist指数法进行了比较分析,说明了Malmquist-Benchmarking的优越性;更对计算结果所反映的农业生产率、农业技术效率变化、农业技术变化的演化形态与规律进行解析。
三、农业生产率增长的R&D投资驱动机制分析
在西方经济学的理论框架下,资本是促进经济增长的基本要素。从吉林省农业发展的实际情况看,驱动农业生产率增长的R&D投资包括了自主R&D投资、龙头企业的R&D投资溢出、区域外R&D投资溢出。针对这三种投资形式,本研究运用协整模型定量分析R&D投资对农业生产率的影响方向及影响程度,从而揭示了目前R&D投资对吉林省农业生产率增长的驱动机制。
四、农业生产率增长的人力资本驱动机制分析
劳动投入是农业生产率增长不可或缺的基本要素,在内生经济增长理论框架下,人力资本概念被引入经济增长模型,这赋予了劳动性因素崭新而更为复杂的内涵。卢卡斯指出人力资本不仅具有内部效应,即对自己的生产率有影响,更重要的是具有外部效应,这种外部效应使得人力资本成为“增长的发动机”。目前,农业生产率增长所涉及的人力资本因素主要包括农业研发人员的素质、数量;农民的平均受教育程度;农民健康状况等。鉴于此,本研究运用协整模型定量分析人力资本积累对农业生产率的影响方向及影响程度,不仅揭示劳动投入对农业生产率的作用,更阐明在农业生产率增长过程可能发生的“干中学”、“技术扩散”等重要机制所产生的驱动效应。
五、农业生产率的制度驱动机制分析
制度是生产率分析中较少涉及的研究领域,但无疑是影响农业生产率的重要因素。考虑到制度变量的复杂性及资料的可获性,本研究从理论上论述了制度变迁对农业生产率增长的引导效应、激励效应及可能存在的抑制效应。并进一步将影响农业生产率的制度性因素界定为财政支农政策、金融支农政策、农产品价格支持政策、农业土地政策、现代农业促进政策等方面,运用Tobit模型实证分析了制度性因素对农业生产率的影响方向及影响程度。
六、吉林省促进农业生产率增长的政策耦合
在实证分析基础上,本研究提出了促进农业生产率增长的耦合性政策体系,具体包括:(1)正确把握农业生产率变化趋势,坚持推进农业现代化战略;(2)优化农业R&D投资,实施农业技术创新工程;(3)强化龙头企业的创新主体地位,推进农业产学研平台建设;(4)注重农业科技人才培养,实施农业科技人才战略;(5)提高农民智力资本水平,加速农业健康资本积累;(6)加大财政、金融支农力度,支持农业重点领域发展;(7)加强农业产业链保护,创新土地流转机制等。其中,设立农业龙头企业技术创新专项奖励基金和重点支持精品种植业等战略思维不仅具有较强的可操作性,更具有一定创新意义。
With the continuous development of Economy, productivity growth has become the most important base of economic growth. During Chinese economic growth, the contribution rate of total factors productivity has reached 30.89%, especially after openness reform, technology progress contribution rate has increased to 40.95% significantly and become the most important source of economic growth. As a big agricultural country, China’s agricultural productivity growth is the the core of national wealth and the foundation of economic and social stability. However, from 1978 to 2007, China's agricultural total factor productivity annual growth rate is only 0.7% and the contribution for agricultural output growth is about 11.3%. The fact shows that in the 30 years since reform and opening up, the growth of China's agriculture is mainly depend on increase of resource input, rather than on total factor productivity growth, which is still very extensive. Therefore, during the economic transformation of China, we have to face the historic mission to change extensive agricultural growth to intensive agricultural growth, which make us study the problems of agricultural productivity growth. It will be very important for developing modern agriculture and building new socialist countryside. As China's major grain producing areas and the agricultural province, Agricultural growth of Jilin has become increasingly dependent on technological progress significantly. During the period from 1986 to 2007, the technological progress contribution rate of Jilin Province was 41.92%. However, it should be noted that due to the small scale of agricultural self-management, low management level, poor production conditions, the problems on insufficient capacity for sustainable development and difficulty of farmers income increase are still very prominent. In this case, the promotion of Jilin Agricultural productivity growth is a method to accelerate social and economic development in rural areas and to change the backwardness of agriculture in Jilin. Therefore, this paper build a theoretical model about agricultural productivity growth based on the classical endogenous growth theory, use Malmquist-Benchmarking model to measure and analyze the agriculture productivity growth for the measurement and analysis; give some empirical analysis about the driving mechanism of R & D investment, human capital investment and institution on the growth of agriculture productivity based on VECM model and Tobit model. Moreover, we proposed some countermeasures for the promotion of agricultural productivity growth. Specifically, this paper mainly include:
1.Theory framework of agricultural productivity growth
In the basis of In-depth study about endogenous growth theory, this paper constructed a theoretical model of agricultural productivity growth, and try to show that agricultural productivity growth is driven by R&D investment, human capital and institutional change directly. The theoretical model is the footstone of the following empirical study and provides the theoretical framework to identify R&D investment, human capital, institutional change as the most important driving factors for agricultural productivity growth .
2.Measurement and analysis about Jilin agricultural productivity
Based on the theoretical study, this study uses nonparametric Malmquist indexes to measure agricultural productivity of Jilin, not only try to show the predominant nature of Malmquist-Benchmarking model through comparing three different Malmquist indexes models; but also give a analysis about the agricultural productivity, agricultural technical efficiency change and agricultural technical changes according to the information reflected by results
3.Analysis on the driving mechanism of R&D investment on agricultural productivity growth,
In the framework of Western economic theory, capital is the basic element of economic growth. From the actual situation of Jilin's agricultural development, we can find the main driving power of R&D investment may include self-invested R&D investment, the R&D spillovers of leading enterprises, R&D investment from the other regions. For these three forms of investment, this study uses VEC models to make a quantitative analysis on the influence of R&D investment on agricultural productivity, which reveals the driven mechanism of R&D investment over the agriculture productivity growth.
4.Analysis on the driven mechanism of human capital on agricultural productivity growth
Labor is the essential element for Agricultural productivity growth, especially in the endogenous economic growth theory framework, the concept of human capital has been introduced into economic growth model, which gives the factors of labor new and more complex connotations. Lucas pointed out that human capital not only has the internal effect on productivity, but also has some external effects that makes human capital become the "economic growth engine." Now days, human capital factors that influence agricultural productivity growth include the quality and number of agricultural R&D personnel, the average education level of farmer, the situation of farmer’s health. In view of this, this study used VEC models to make a quantitative analysis about the impact of human capital accumulation on agricultural productivity, which not only reveals the role of labor for agricultural productivity, but also clarifies the“learning-by-doing”or "technology diffusion" in the process of productivity growth.
5. Analysis on the driven mechanism of institution on agricultural productivity growth
Institution has been less involved in the research, which is undoubtedly an important factor affecting agricultural productivity. As complexity of institutional variables and data availability, this study discussed the leading effects, incentive effects and the possible inhibitory effect in theory. Moreover, we defined the main institutional factors as agricultural fiscal support, financial support, agricultural price support policy, agricultural land policy and the promotion policy of modern agricultural, and analyses the influence of institutional factors on agriculture productivity with Tobit models.
6. Coupling countermeasures on promoting agricultural productivity growth of Jilin
Based on the empirical analysis, this paper proposed some coupling countermeasures on promoting agricultural productivity growth of Jilin as following: (1)we should correctly grasp the trends of agricultural productivity and persist the strategy of promoting agricultural modernization; (2)optimize agricultural R&D investment and start agricultural technology innovation; (3)strengthen the dominant position of the leading enterprises for innovation and build university-industry platform; (4)focus on agricultural science and technology personnel training and start the agricultural science and technology human resources strategy; (5)raise the intellectual capital level of farmers and accelerate health capital accumulation; (6)increase agriculture fiscal, financial support and encourage agricultural development in key areas; (7)protect agricultural chain and create new land transfer mechanism. Among them, There are some innovative thinking such as establishing special incentive fund for leading enterprise technology innovation and encourage high-quality planting industry etc.
一、农业生产率增长的理论分析框架
在深入研究内生经济增长理论基础上,本研究构建了农业生产率增长的理论模型,从理论上阐明了农业生产率增长受到R&D投资、人力资本及制度变迁的正向驱动。这个理论模型为后续研究提供了理论分析框架,确定了针对R&D投资、人力资本、制度变迁等重要因素的实证研究方向。
二、吉林省农业生产率的测度与解析
在理论研究基础上,本研究运用非参数Malmquist指数法对吉林省农业生产率进行测度,不仅对三种不同的Malmquist指数法进行了比较分析,说明了Malmquist-Benchmarking的优越性;更对计算结果所反映的农业生产率、农业技术效率变化、农业技术变化的演化形态与规律进行解析。
三、农业生产率增长的R&D投资驱动机制分析
在西方经济学的理论框架下,资本是促进经济增长的基本要素。从吉林省农业发展的实际情况看,驱动农业生产率增长的R&D投资包括了自主R&D投资、龙头企业的R&D投资溢出、区域外R&D投资溢出。针对这三种投资形式,本研究运用协整模型定量分析R&D投资对农业生产率的影响方向及影响程度,从而揭示了目前R&D投资对吉林省农业生产率增长的驱动机制。
四、农业生产率增长的人力资本驱动机制分析
劳动投入是农业生产率增长不可或缺的基本要素,在内生经济增长理论框架下,人力资本概念被引入经济增长模型,这赋予了劳动性因素崭新而更为复杂的内涵。卢卡斯指出人力资本不仅具有内部效应,即对自己的生产率有影响,更重要的是具有外部效应,这种外部效应使得人力资本成为“增长的发动机”。目前,农业生产率增长所涉及的人力资本因素主要包括农业研发人员的素质、数量;农民的平均受教育程度;农民健康状况等。鉴于此,本研究运用协整模型定量分析人力资本积累对农业生产率的影响方向及影响程度,不仅揭示劳动投入对农业生产率的作用,更阐明在农业生产率增长过程可能发生的“干中学”、“技术扩散”等重要机制所产生的驱动效应。
五、农业生产率的制度驱动机制分析
制度是生产率分析中较少涉及的研究领域,但无疑是影响农业生产率的重要因素。考虑到制度变量的复杂性及资料的可获性,本研究从理论上论述了制度变迁对农业生产率增长的引导效应、激励效应及可能存在的抑制效应。并进一步将影响农业生产率的制度性因素界定为财政支农政策、金融支农政策、农产品价格支持政策、农业土地政策、现代农业促进政策等方面,运用Tobit模型实证分析了制度性因素对农业生产率的影响方向及影响程度。
六、吉林省促进农业生产率增长的政策耦合
在实证分析基础上,本研究提出了促进农业生产率增长的耦合性政策体系,具体包括:(1)正确把握农业生产率变化趋势,坚持推进农业现代化战略;(2)优化农业R&D投资,实施农业技术创新工程;(3)强化龙头企业的创新主体地位,推进农业产学研平台建设;(4)注重农业科技人才培养,实施农业科技人才战略;(5)提高农民智力资本水平,加速农业健康资本积累;(6)加大财政、金融支农力度,支持农业重点领域发展;(7)加强农业产业链保护,创新土地流转机制等。其中,设立农业龙头企业技术创新专项奖励基金和重点支持精品种植业等战略思维不仅具有较强的可操作性,更具有一定创新意义。
With the continuous development of Economy, productivity growth has become the most important base of economic growth. During Chinese economic growth, the contribution rate of total factors productivity has reached 30.89%, especially after openness reform, technology progress contribution rate has increased to 40.95% significantly and become the most important source of economic growth. As a big agricultural country, China’s agricultural productivity growth is the the core of national wealth and the foundation of economic and social stability. However, from 1978 to 2007, China's agricultural total factor productivity annual growth rate is only 0.7% and the contribution for agricultural output growth is about 11.3%. The fact shows that in the 30 years since reform and opening up, the growth of China's agriculture is mainly depend on increase of resource input, rather than on total factor productivity growth, which is still very extensive. Therefore, during the economic transformation of China, we have to face the historic mission to change extensive agricultural growth to intensive agricultural growth, which make us study the problems of agricultural productivity growth. It will be very important for developing modern agriculture and building new socialist countryside. As China's major grain producing areas and the agricultural province, Agricultural growth of Jilin has become increasingly dependent on technological progress significantly. During the period from 1986 to 2007, the technological progress contribution rate of Jilin Province was 41.92%. However, it should be noted that due to the small scale of agricultural self-management, low management level, poor production conditions, the problems on insufficient capacity for sustainable development and difficulty of farmers income increase are still very prominent. In this case, the promotion of Jilin Agricultural productivity growth is a method to accelerate social and economic development in rural areas and to change the backwardness of agriculture in Jilin. Therefore, this paper build a theoretical model about agricultural productivity growth based on the classical endogenous growth theory, use Malmquist-Benchmarking model to measure and analyze the agriculture productivity growth for the measurement and analysis; give some empirical analysis about the driving mechanism of R & D investment, human capital investment and institution on the growth of agriculture productivity based on VECM model and Tobit model. Moreover, we proposed some countermeasures for the promotion of agricultural productivity growth. Specifically, this paper mainly include:
1.Theory framework of agricultural productivity growth
In the basis of In-depth study about endogenous growth theory, this paper constructed a theoretical model of agricultural productivity growth, and try to show that agricultural productivity growth is driven by R&D investment, human capital and institutional change directly. The theoretical model is the footstone of the following empirical study and provides the theoretical framework to identify R&D investment, human capital, institutional change as the most important driving factors for agricultural productivity growth .
2.Measurement and analysis about Jilin agricultural productivity
Based on the theoretical study, this study uses nonparametric Malmquist indexes to measure agricultural productivity of Jilin, not only try to show the predominant nature of Malmquist-Benchmarking model through comparing three different Malmquist indexes models; but also give a analysis about the agricultural productivity, agricultural technical efficiency change and agricultural technical changes according to the information reflected by results
3.Analysis on the driving mechanism of R&D investment on agricultural productivity growth,
In the framework of Western economic theory, capital is the basic element of economic growth. From the actual situation of Jilin's agricultural development, we can find the main driving power of R&D investment may include self-invested R&D investment, the R&D spillovers of leading enterprises, R&D investment from the other regions. For these three forms of investment, this study uses VEC models to make a quantitative analysis on the influence of R&D investment on agricultural productivity, which reveals the driven mechanism of R&D investment over the agriculture productivity growth.
4.Analysis on the driven mechanism of human capital on agricultural productivity growth
Labor is the essential element for Agricultural productivity growth, especially in the endogenous economic growth theory framework, the concept of human capital has been introduced into economic growth model, which gives the factors of labor new and more complex connotations. Lucas pointed out that human capital not only has the internal effect on productivity, but also has some external effects that makes human capital become the "economic growth engine." Now days, human capital factors that influence agricultural productivity growth include the quality and number of agricultural R&D personnel, the average education level of farmer, the situation of farmer’s health. In view of this, this study used VEC models to make a quantitative analysis about the impact of human capital accumulation on agricultural productivity, which not only reveals the role of labor for agricultural productivity, but also clarifies the“learning-by-doing”or "technology diffusion" in the process of productivity growth.
5. Analysis on the driven mechanism of institution on agricultural productivity growth
Institution has been less involved in the research, which is undoubtedly an important factor affecting agricultural productivity. As complexity of institutional variables and data availability, this study discussed the leading effects, incentive effects and the possible inhibitory effect in theory. Moreover, we defined the main institutional factors as agricultural fiscal support, financial support, agricultural price support policy, agricultural land policy and the promotion policy of modern agricultural, and analyses the influence of institutional factors on agriculture productivity with Tobit models.
6. Coupling countermeasures on promoting agricultural productivity growth of Jilin
Based on the empirical analysis, this paper proposed some coupling countermeasures on promoting agricultural productivity growth of Jilin as following: (1)we should correctly grasp the trends of agricultural productivity and persist the strategy of promoting agricultural modernization; (2)optimize agricultural R&D investment and start agricultural technology innovation; (3)strengthen the dominant position of the leading enterprises for innovation and build university-industry platform; (4)focus on agricultural science and technology personnel training and start the agricultural science and technology human resources strategy; (5)raise the intellectual capital level of farmers and accelerate health capital accumulation; (6)increase agriculture fiscal, financial support and encourage agricultural development in key areas; (7)protect agricultural chain and create new land transfer mechanism. Among them, There are some innovative thinking such as establishing special incentive fund for leading enterprise technology innovation and encourage high-quality planting industry etc.
引文
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