产业视角下中印贸易摩擦发生机理研究
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摘要
进入21世纪以来,中印两国间贸易发展势头强劲。双边贸易额由2001年的35.96亿美元增至2010年的555.8亿美元,在10年内增长了近20倍,年均增长率超过30%。然而,与此同时,中印两国贸易摩擦态势愈演愈烈,目前印度已经超过美国、欧盟等发达经济体成为对华发起贸易摩擦最多的国家。另外,当前世界经济复苏的不稳定性和不确定性突出,世界经济格局已发生改变,中印同为新兴的发展中大国,两国经济的健康发展不仅关系双方自身,甚至对整个亚洲乃至世界经济都具有积极的影响。因此研究两国贸易摩擦的发展状况,从中寻找解决贸易摩擦的对策对于推进中印经贸关系的健康发展具有积极的理论意义和现实意义。
本文以研究中印频繁发生贸易摩擦产业的特征为目的及出发点,从两国产业结构演进的动态视角,理论和实证两个方面进行了定性和定量研究。首先本文阐述研究背景及意义,国内外研究现状以及本文的研究思路、研究方法和创新点,然后对贸易摩擦产生机理进行一般分析,在此基础上本文概述中印双边贸易的现状,对两国贸易摩擦的发展过程以及近年来呈现的新特点进行研究。本文重点是从中印两国贸易产业结构的角度对两国贸易摩擦产生机理进行实证分析。最后在总结以上章节的基础上,重点研究了缓解我国与印度贸易摩擦的对策并得出结论。
为了缓解中印两国的贸易摩擦,我国应加快产业升级,提高产品附加值;建立和完善贸易摩擦预警机制,实现出口市场多元化;针对印度的国家贸易政策实行产品差别化;与印度加强合作,互惠互利。
Since the 21~(st) century, China-India trade has developed strongly. The amount of bilateral trade has increased by 20 times during 10 years with an average growth rate of over 30 percent, from 3.596 billion dollars in 2001 to 55.88 billion dollars in 2010. However, the trade friction between China and India has been increasingly serious, and now India has become the country which launches trade investigation most to China, exceeding such developed economies as US and EU. What's more, with the unstability and uncertainty of world economy, the global economy pattern has changed. As the emerged developing countries, China and India has not only contributed greatly to the sound development of bilateral relations between each other but that of the whole Asia and world. Therefore, it is of significance theoretically and practically to study the development course of China-India trade friction and find out the countermeasures to cope with the friction.
The paper studies from theory and empiricism perspects in qualitative and quantitative method with the dynamic perspective of industrial structure development of the two nations in purpose of studying the characteristics of trade friction occurring frequently between China and India. Firstly the paper begins with the introduction, which expounds the research background and significance, the present domestic and foreign research achievements and the thoughts, research methods and innovation, and it generally analysis the mechanism of the trade friction. On the basis it summarizes the present situation of China-India trade, and then research on both the development course of China-India trade friction and the new features present in recent years. The paper emphasizes on the empirical research on the mechanism of China-India trade friction from the perspective of the industrial structure of bilateral trade. Last it emphasizes the countermeasures to relieve China-India trade friction on the basis of summarizing the above chapters.
To ease the trade friction between China and India, China should accelerate industry upgrade, increase the added value of products, improve the trade friction early-warning mechanism and promote export market diversification. China should implement the product differentiation to tackle the problems rising from the national trade policies of India. China and India also need joint efforts to strengthen cooperative partnership and mutual benefits.
本文以研究中印频繁发生贸易摩擦产业的特征为目的及出发点,从两国产业结构演进的动态视角,理论和实证两个方面进行了定性和定量研究。首先本文阐述研究背景及意义,国内外研究现状以及本文的研究思路、研究方法和创新点,然后对贸易摩擦产生机理进行一般分析,在此基础上本文概述中印双边贸易的现状,对两国贸易摩擦的发展过程以及近年来呈现的新特点进行研究。本文重点是从中印两国贸易产业结构的角度对两国贸易摩擦产生机理进行实证分析。最后在总结以上章节的基础上,重点研究了缓解我国与印度贸易摩擦的对策并得出结论。
为了缓解中印两国的贸易摩擦,我国应加快产业升级,提高产品附加值;建立和完善贸易摩擦预警机制,实现出口市场多元化;针对印度的国家贸易政策实行产品差别化;与印度加强合作,互惠互利。
Since the 21~(st) century, China-India trade has developed strongly. The amount of bilateral trade has increased by 20 times during 10 years with an average growth rate of over 30 percent, from 3.596 billion dollars in 2001 to 55.88 billion dollars in 2010. However, the trade friction between China and India has been increasingly serious, and now India has become the country which launches trade investigation most to China, exceeding such developed economies as US and EU. What's more, with the unstability and uncertainty of world economy, the global economy pattern has changed. As the emerged developing countries, China and India has not only contributed greatly to the sound development of bilateral relations between each other but that of the whole Asia and world. Therefore, it is of significance theoretically and practically to study the development course of China-India trade friction and find out the countermeasures to cope with the friction.
The paper studies from theory and empiricism perspects in qualitative and quantitative method with the dynamic perspective of industrial structure development of the two nations in purpose of studying the characteristics of trade friction occurring frequently between China and India. Firstly the paper begins with the introduction, which expounds the research background and significance, the present domestic and foreign research achievements and the thoughts, research methods and innovation, and it generally analysis the mechanism of the trade friction. On the basis it summarizes the present situation of China-India trade, and then research on both the development course of China-India trade friction and the new features present in recent years. The paper emphasizes on the empirical research on the mechanism of China-India trade friction from the perspective of the industrial structure of bilateral trade. Last it emphasizes the countermeasures to relieve China-India trade friction on the basis of summarizing the above chapters.
To ease the trade friction between China and India, China should accelerate industry upgrade, increase the added value of products, improve the trade friction early-warning mechanism and promote export market diversification. China should implement the product differentiation to tackle the problems rising from the national trade policies of India. China and India also need joint efforts to strengthen cooperative partnership and mutual benefits.
引文
[1]林学访.论贸易摩擦的成因与影响.国际贸易,2007(5).
[2] Baron, David P. Integrated Strategy and International Trade Dispute: The Kodark-Fujifilm Case. Journal of Economics &Management Strategy, 1997, 6 (2).
[3]李春顶,陈诗阳.企业行为与国际贸易摩擦:一个扩展的政治经济模型.经济管理,2009(11).
[4]胡方.产品种数、寡头竞争与国际贸易摩擦.世界经济研究,2010(6).
[5] Bagwell, Kyle and Staiger, Robert W. Strategic Trade, Competitive Industries and Agricultural Trade Disputes. Economics and Politics,2001, 13 (2).
[6] Chad.P. Bown,Rachel McMclloch. U.S. Trade Police Toward China:Discrimination and Its Implications.2005.
[7] Sturm, Daniel M. Product Standards, Trade Disputes, and Protection. Canadian Economics Association, 2006, 39 (2) :564 - 581.
[8] G. Clyde Hufbauer, Y. Wong and K. Sheth, US-China Trade Disputes: Rising Tide, Rising Stakes, Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC , 2006
[9]于铁流,李秉祥.中美贸易摩擦的原因及其解决对策.管理世界,2004(9).
[10]胡方,彭诚.技术进步引起国际贸易摩擦的一个模型.国际贸易问题,2009(9).
[11]高维新,蔡春林.中国与发展中国家贸易摩擦的深层次原因探析.国际经贸探索,2009(9).
[12]熊娟.中美贸易摩擦的重商主义视角分析——以轮胎特保案为例.现代商贸工业,2010(15).
[13] Langdon, Frank. Japan - United States Trade Friction: The Recip rocity Issue. Asian Survey, 1983(5).
[14] Bhagwati Jagdish, "Protectionism", Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press.1988.
[15] Bown, Chad P.Trade Dispute and the Implementation of Protection Under the GATT: An Emp irical Assessment. Journal of International Economics, 2004.
[16]谢建国.经济影响、政治分歧与制度摩擦——美国对华贸易反倾销实证研究.管理世界, 2006(12).
[17]李春顶.中美贸易摩擦成因中的心理、制度和政治因素分析.财贸研究,2007(3).
[18]吴郁秋,刘海云.知识产权保护差异与贸易摩擦诱发机制——基于利益集团视角的分析.国际贸易问题,2009(5).
[19] Grinols, Earl L. and Perrelli, Roberto.“Politics, the WTO and Trade Disputes: Evidence from US Cases.”Pacific Economics Review, 2002,7 (2) , pp. 335 - 357.
[20] Yoshimatsu, Hidetaka. Social Demand, State Capability and Globalization: Japan - China Trade Friction Over Safeguards. The Pacific Review, 2002, 15 (3).
[21]赵瑾.国际贸易摩擦背后的产业结构和政治因素.世界经济与政治论坛,2004(3).
[22]黄晓凤.国际产业结构的趋同与贸易摩擦的博弈分析.财经理论与实践,2007(1).
[23]柳剑平,张兴泉.产业内贸易、调整成本与中美贸易摩擦.经济评论,2009(4).
[24]李盾.中印贸易摩擦的特点、原因、解决机制及发展趋势.国际贸易,2006(2).
[25]张立.中印贸易摩擦的现状、原因及对策建议.南亚研究季刊,2008(3).
[26]肖静.从贸易结构关系分析印度对华反倾销的动因.世界经济情况,2009(4).
[27]胡俊,朱晶.印度对华反倾销偏好研究.亚太经济,2010(4).
[28]李月娥,李永.国际贸易理论与政策.上海:立信会计出版社,2005.121~123.
[29]赵瑾.全球化与经济摩擦——日美经济摩擦的理论与实证研究.北京:商务印书馆,2002.226~229.
[30]尹翔硕,李春顶.国际贸易摩擦南北不对称与摩擦的形成——基于一个三国贸易模型的分析.南开经济研究,2007(5).
[31]戴云阳.中印贸易的现状和前景:(硕士学位论文).上海:华东师范大学,2009.
[32]杨梅.2009印度对华贸易救济新态势及中国的对策.南亚研究季刊,2009(3).
[33]杨荣珍.印度对华反倾销实践及其评价.亚太经济,2006(4).
[34]吕航.印度反倾销案件现状研究.长春师范学院学报(人文社会科学版),2008(3).
[35]文清.中印贸易摩擦的成因及对策分析.现代商业,2010(15).
[36]裘红萍.上半年我国面临的贸易摩擦形势不容乐观.中国贸易救济,2010(9).
[37]张炳政.中印贸易:分歧与共赢.中国海关,2010(2).
[38]关静.印度对华反倾销的经济影响与对策研究:(硕士学位论文).保定:河北大学,2009.
[39]林世炎.中国与印度双边经贸合作发展:问题及对策出处.黑龙江对外经贸,2010(5).
[40]鲁旭.印度对华反倾销加剧的成因及对策.对外经贸实务,2008(12).
[41]赵放,李季.中日双边产业内贸易及影响因素实证研究.世界经济研究,2010(10).
[42]谢国娥.印度对华反倾销的原因及我国的对策.经济纵横,2007(5).
[2] Baron, David P. Integrated Strategy and International Trade Dispute: The Kodark-Fujifilm Case. Journal of Economics &Management Strategy, 1997, 6 (2).
[3]李春顶,陈诗阳.企业行为与国际贸易摩擦:一个扩展的政治经济模型.经济管理,2009(11).
[4]胡方.产品种数、寡头竞争与国际贸易摩擦.世界经济研究,2010(6).
[5] Bagwell, Kyle and Staiger, Robert W. Strategic Trade, Competitive Industries and Agricultural Trade Disputes. Economics and Politics,2001, 13 (2).
[6] Chad.P. Bown,Rachel McMclloch. U.S. Trade Police Toward China:Discrimination and Its Implications.2005.
[7] Sturm, Daniel M. Product Standards, Trade Disputes, and Protection. Canadian Economics Association, 2006, 39 (2) :564 - 581.
[8] G. Clyde Hufbauer, Y. Wong and K. Sheth, US-China Trade Disputes: Rising Tide, Rising Stakes, Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC , 2006
[9]于铁流,李秉祥.中美贸易摩擦的原因及其解决对策.管理世界,2004(9).
[10]胡方,彭诚.技术进步引起国际贸易摩擦的一个模型.国际贸易问题,2009(9).
[11]高维新,蔡春林.中国与发展中国家贸易摩擦的深层次原因探析.国际经贸探索,2009(9).
[12]熊娟.中美贸易摩擦的重商主义视角分析——以轮胎特保案为例.现代商贸工业,2010(15).
[13] Langdon, Frank. Japan - United States Trade Friction: The Recip rocity Issue. Asian Survey, 1983(5).
[14] Bhagwati Jagdish, "Protectionism", Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press.1988.
[15] Bown, Chad P.Trade Dispute and the Implementation of Protection Under the GATT: An Emp irical Assessment. Journal of International Economics, 2004.
[16]谢建国.经济影响、政治分歧与制度摩擦——美国对华贸易反倾销实证研究.管理世界, 2006(12).
[17]李春顶.中美贸易摩擦成因中的心理、制度和政治因素分析.财贸研究,2007(3).
[18]吴郁秋,刘海云.知识产权保护差异与贸易摩擦诱发机制——基于利益集团视角的分析.国际贸易问题,2009(5).
[19] Grinols, Earl L. and Perrelli, Roberto.“Politics, the WTO and Trade Disputes: Evidence from US Cases.”Pacific Economics Review, 2002,7 (2) , pp. 335 - 357.
[20] Yoshimatsu, Hidetaka. Social Demand, State Capability and Globalization: Japan - China Trade Friction Over Safeguards. The Pacific Review, 2002, 15 (3).
[21]赵瑾.国际贸易摩擦背后的产业结构和政治因素.世界经济与政治论坛,2004(3).
[22]黄晓凤.国际产业结构的趋同与贸易摩擦的博弈分析.财经理论与实践,2007(1).
[23]柳剑平,张兴泉.产业内贸易、调整成本与中美贸易摩擦.经济评论,2009(4).
[24]李盾.中印贸易摩擦的特点、原因、解决机制及发展趋势.国际贸易,2006(2).
[25]张立.中印贸易摩擦的现状、原因及对策建议.南亚研究季刊,2008(3).
[26]肖静.从贸易结构关系分析印度对华反倾销的动因.世界经济情况,2009(4).
[27]胡俊,朱晶.印度对华反倾销偏好研究.亚太经济,2010(4).
[28]李月娥,李永.国际贸易理论与政策.上海:立信会计出版社,2005.121~123.
[29]赵瑾.全球化与经济摩擦——日美经济摩擦的理论与实证研究.北京:商务印书馆,2002.226~229.
[30]尹翔硕,李春顶.国际贸易摩擦南北不对称与摩擦的形成——基于一个三国贸易模型的分析.南开经济研究,2007(5).
[31]戴云阳.中印贸易的现状和前景:(硕士学位论文).上海:华东师范大学,2009.
[32]杨梅.2009印度对华贸易救济新态势及中国的对策.南亚研究季刊,2009(3).
[33]杨荣珍.印度对华反倾销实践及其评价.亚太经济,2006(4).
[34]吕航.印度反倾销案件现状研究.长春师范学院学报(人文社会科学版),2008(3).
[35]文清.中印贸易摩擦的成因及对策分析.现代商业,2010(15).
[36]裘红萍.上半年我国面临的贸易摩擦形势不容乐观.中国贸易救济,2010(9).
[37]张炳政.中印贸易:分歧与共赢.中国海关,2010(2).
[38]关静.印度对华反倾销的经济影响与对策研究:(硕士学位论文).保定:河北大学,2009.
[39]林世炎.中国与印度双边经贸合作发展:问题及对策出处.黑龙江对外经贸,2010(5).
[40]鲁旭.印度对华反倾销加剧的成因及对策.对外经贸实务,2008(12).
[41]赵放,李季.中日双边产业内贸易及影响因素实证研究.世界经济研究,2010(10).
[42]谢国娥.印度对华反倾销的原因及我国的对策.经济纵横,2007(5).