金融危机之信用失衡
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摘要
自2007年下半年以来,以美国次贷危机为导火索的金融危机愈演愈烈,许多学者和专家都对此次危机进行了大量的研究和预测,许多经济学家都认为造成此次次贷危机的原因是由于金融监管的缺失,但也有不少研究者认为此次金融危机的全面爆发主要是由于信用的失衡,实质是由于信用造成的一次危机。毋庸置疑,信用失衡的问题在此次金融危机中扮演着无可替代的角色。信用是现代金融的灵魂,一旦信用出现问题,必然会导致整个金融系统的风险。正是由于信用的失衡,才导致了此次由美国次贷危机引发的全球性金融危机。
本文就是基于以上背景,对信用失衡与此次金融危机的关系进行研究和分析。论文主要内容包括四个方面:论文首先从美国次贷危机入手,详细讲述美国次贷危机中所暴露出的信用失衡问题。这些问题主要有:次级贷款及其证券化发展的失控造成的信用失衡问题;信用评级机构对证券化产品评级存在的信用失衡问题;对冲基金投资高风险证券化产品存在的信用风险问题;流动性过剩背景下,商业银行为减少滞留资金而发放次级贷款存在的信用风险等。其次,论文讲述了信用失衡问题造成了全球性金融危机,主要表现在主要经济体国家信用紧缩和流动性减弱;金融机构大幅亏损和房地产市场价格全面下滑等。第三部分论文就美联储救市措施进行了批判,论文从美国救市措施的效果以及措施未解决根本性问题两方面批判了美国的救市措施,接着分析了政府救市选择各个政策的利弊。最后论文结合我国的实际经济中的信用状况,对我国个人信用制度建设;金融创新下的信用风险控制;出口企业的信用风险控制以及我商业银行信用制度建设等方面提出了建议。
本文的创新之处主要体现在以下几个方面:第一,文章在选题方面选择这几年全球最关注的问题——次贷危机,文章以次贷危机为背景进行问题的分析和研究。第二,文章从次贷危机中存在的信用失衡问题出发,从信用这个角度分析和研究此次金融危机,而不是向大多数研究人员从信用角度出发。文章采用最新的数据,结合各国对次贷危机下信用失衡的研究,对我国房屋抵押贷款和金融衍生品构建等的信用风险控制提出建议。第三,在研究方法上,随着科学的进步与发展,各学科之间的界限越来越模糊,采用多学科相结合的研究方法也越来越重要。本文运用了经济学、管理学、数学、计算机应用等的有关理论,对研究的问题进行了综合考虑。文章采用理论与现实相结合的方法,从次贷危机爆发的现实情况中引出信用失衡这个理论问题,并综合运用相关经济学原理和方法,对美国次贷危机中暴露的信用制度的问题进行研究,进而对我国的信用制度安排及其长期变迁过程中的相关问题进行了综合分析并提出政策建议。
Since the second half of 2007, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis as ammunition financial crisis fiercer, many scholars and experts on the crisis had a lot of research and prediction, many economists think the subprime crisis is due to the lack of financial supervision, but also has many researchers think that the financial crisis of the outbreak is mainly due to the credit of the unbalance, essence is due to a crisis caused by credit. Undoubtedly, the imbalance of the problems in the credit crisis plays an irreplaceable role.
This article is based on the above the background of the financial crisis and credit unbalance of the relationship between research and analysis. The thesis consists of four aspects: firstly, starting from the subprime mortgage crisis and detailed us subprime mortgage crisis which exposes the unbalance of credit. These problems are mainly: subprime mortgages and the development of the securitization of credit control cause imbalances, Credit rating agencies for securitization of credit rating of existing products imbalances, Hedge fund investment risk of securitization of credit risk products, Under the background of excess liquidity, commercial Banks to reduce retention funds and extend the credit risk exists subprime loans. Secondly, the paper tells the imbalances caused a global credit crisis, mainly displays in major economies weaken the credit crunch and liquidity, Financial losses and real estate market price declines comprehensive etc. In the third part of the thesis is fed the measures are critical. Papers from the effects of the measures and the measures to solve fundamental problems without criticizing the two aspects of the municipal government, then analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of different policy choices. Finally the paper in combination with the actual economic conditions of our country, credit personal credit system construction, Financial innovation of credit risk control, Export enterprise credit risk control and commercial bank credit system construction of my Suggestions, etc.
The innovation of this paper mainly embodies in the following aspects: first, the articles in this topic in the most concern for global - the subprime crisis, the subprime crisis successively for background research and analysis of the problem. Second, this article from the subprime crisis in credit imbalances from this Angle, the credit analysis and research on the financial crisis, rather than most researchers from the Angle of credit. This paper adopts the latest data, combined with the countries of the subprime crisis, the imbalance of the credit, mortgage loans to Chinese financial derivatives and the construction of credit risk control are proposed. Third, in the research method, with the development of science and development, the boundary between the various disciplines and fuzzy multidisciplinary, using the method of combining study more and more important. Based on the economics, science, mathematics and computer application, etc, to study the relevant theory of comprehensive consideration of the problems. This paper adopts theory and method of combining the reality from the subprime crisis, the reality of the theoretical derivation credit imbalance, and comprehensive use of relevant principles and methods of economics, the us subprime mortgage crisis in credit system is studied, and the problems of China's credit system arrangement and long-term change process related problems were analyzed and policy recommendations.
本文就是基于以上背景,对信用失衡与此次金融危机的关系进行研究和分析。论文主要内容包括四个方面:论文首先从美国次贷危机入手,详细讲述美国次贷危机中所暴露出的信用失衡问题。这些问题主要有:次级贷款及其证券化发展的失控造成的信用失衡问题;信用评级机构对证券化产品评级存在的信用失衡问题;对冲基金投资高风险证券化产品存在的信用风险问题;流动性过剩背景下,商业银行为减少滞留资金而发放次级贷款存在的信用风险等。其次,论文讲述了信用失衡问题造成了全球性金融危机,主要表现在主要经济体国家信用紧缩和流动性减弱;金融机构大幅亏损和房地产市场价格全面下滑等。第三部分论文就美联储救市措施进行了批判,论文从美国救市措施的效果以及措施未解决根本性问题两方面批判了美国的救市措施,接着分析了政府救市选择各个政策的利弊。最后论文结合我国的实际经济中的信用状况,对我国个人信用制度建设;金融创新下的信用风险控制;出口企业的信用风险控制以及我商业银行信用制度建设等方面提出了建议。
本文的创新之处主要体现在以下几个方面:第一,文章在选题方面选择这几年全球最关注的问题——次贷危机,文章以次贷危机为背景进行问题的分析和研究。第二,文章从次贷危机中存在的信用失衡问题出发,从信用这个角度分析和研究此次金融危机,而不是向大多数研究人员从信用角度出发。文章采用最新的数据,结合各国对次贷危机下信用失衡的研究,对我国房屋抵押贷款和金融衍生品构建等的信用风险控制提出建议。第三,在研究方法上,随着科学的进步与发展,各学科之间的界限越来越模糊,采用多学科相结合的研究方法也越来越重要。本文运用了经济学、管理学、数学、计算机应用等的有关理论,对研究的问题进行了综合考虑。文章采用理论与现实相结合的方法,从次贷危机爆发的现实情况中引出信用失衡这个理论问题,并综合运用相关经济学原理和方法,对美国次贷危机中暴露的信用制度的问题进行研究,进而对我国的信用制度安排及其长期变迁过程中的相关问题进行了综合分析并提出政策建议。
Since the second half of 2007, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis as ammunition financial crisis fiercer, many scholars and experts on the crisis had a lot of research and prediction, many economists think the subprime crisis is due to the lack of financial supervision, but also has many researchers think that the financial crisis of the outbreak is mainly due to the credit of the unbalance, essence is due to a crisis caused by credit. Undoubtedly, the imbalance of the problems in the credit crisis plays an irreplaceable role.
This article is based on the above the background of the financial crisis and credit unbalance of the relationship between research and analysis. The thesis consists of four aspects: firstly, starting from the subprime mortgage crisis and detailed us subprime mortgage crisis which exposes the unbalance of credit. These problems are mainly: subprime mortgages and the development of the securitization of credit control cause imbalances, Credit rating agencies for securitization of credit rating of existing products imbalances, Hedge fund investment risk of securitization of credit risk products, Under the background of excess liquidity, commercial Banks to reduce retention funds and extend the credit risk exists subprime loans. Secondly, the paper tells the imbalances caused a global credit crisis, mainly displays in major economies weaken the credit crunch and liquidity, Financial losses and real estate market price declines comprehensive etc. In the third part of the thesis is fed the measures are critical. Papers from the effects of the measures and the measures to solve fundamental problems without criticizing the two aspects of the municipal government, then analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of different policy choices. Finally the paper in combination with the actual economic conditions of our country, credit personal credit system construction, Financial innovation of credit risk control, Export enterprise credit risk control and commercial bank credit system construction of my Suggestions, etc.
The innovation of this paper mainly embodies in the following aspects: first, the articles in this topic in the most concern for global - the subprime crisis, the subprime crisis successively for background research and analysis of the problem. Second, this article from the subprime crisis in credit imbalances from this Angle, the credit analysis and research on the financial crisis, rather than most researchers from the Angle of credit. This paper adopts the latest data, combined with the countries of the subprime crisis, the imbalance of the credit, mortgage loans to Chinese financial derivatives and the construction of credit risk control are proposed. Third, in the research method, with the development of science and development, the boundary between the various disciplines and fuzzy multidisciplinary, using the method of combining study more and more important. Based on the economics, science, mathematics and computer application, etc, to study the relevant theory of comprehensive consideration of the problems. This paper adopts theory and method of combining the reality from the subprime crisis, the reality of the theoretical derivation credit imbalance, and comprehensive use of relevant principles and methods of economics, the us subprime mortgage crisis in credit system is studied, and the problems of China's credit system arrangement and long-term change process related problems were analyzed and policy recommendations.
引文
①孙森,张文彬.信用违约互换.华北金融[J],2007(3)
①郭朝晖,周虹.基于美国次贷危机视角的我国资产证券化发展[J].特区经济, 2008, (12) :107-108
[1]易宪容.“次贷危机”对中国房市的启示[ J ].人民论坛,2007, (17) : 32 - 33.
[2]付敏.我国资产证券化问题讨论综述[ J ].经济理论与经济管理, 2006, (4) : 75 - 79.
[3] [芬兰]大卫·G·梅斯等著.方文等译.改进银行监管[M ].北京:中国人民大学出版社, 2006.
[4]徐孟洲,徐阳光.论金融机构破产之理念更新与制度设计[ J ].首都师范大学学报(社会科学版) , 2006, (1) : 26 - 32.
[5]祁敬宇.金融监管学[M ].西安:西安交通大学出版社,2007
[6]巴曙松.美国“次贷危机”的三大悬念[ J ].人民论坛,2007, (17) : 28 - 30.
[7]陈兵建.美国次贷危机对中国金融监管的启示[J]发展, 2008,(07)
[8]陈天宇.当前我国个人住房抵押贷款风险分析及对策研究[D]青岛大学, 2008 .
[9]夏鸥.我国房贷证券化法律制度论析[D]湖南大学, 2008 .
[10]吴佳菁.次贷危机的原因分析及对我国的启示[D]华东师范大学, 2008
[11]John Kiff ,and Paul Mills. Recent Developments in U.S.Subprime Mortgage Markets .IMF Working Paper. http:www.imf.org: July 2007,
[12]甄炳禧.透视美国次贷危机及对我国的启示[J]经济与管理研究, 2007,(11)
[13]宋佳娟.浅析金融衍生工具的风险监管[J].科技信息(学术研究), 2008, (36) :655
[14]宫祥宇.美国次贷危机对我国商业银行的启示[J].经营管理者, 2008, (16) :155
[15]郭朝晖,周虹.基于美国次贷危机视角的我国资产证券化发展[J].特区经济, 2008, (12) :107-108
[16].Duffie,Darrell,and Kenneth J.Singleton. Credit Risk:Pricing,Measurement, and Management[M].Princeton University Press,Princeton,NJ,2003
[17]Bielecki,T.,and M.Rutkowski. Credit Risk:Modeling,Valuation,and Hedging[M]. New York:Springer,2002
[18].张陶伟.信用衍生产品创新[J].中国金融,2006(19)
[19].金中夏,张甜甜.信用衍生产品市场发展对金融稳定的意义[J].中国金融,2007(8)
[20]孙森,张文彬.信用违约互换.华北金融[J],2007(3)
[21]易华,信用衍生产品及其监管[J].中国金融,2006(2)
[22]Morgan, Credit Mertrics and Technical Document[M].,1997.
[23]肖慧超,浅析信用风险对经济次序的影响.黑龙江金融,2001(6)
[24]凯恩斯,就业、利息和货币通论[M].商务印书馆,1981
[25]王小弈,世界部分国家征信系统概述[G],2002
[26]Stiglitz,J.E and A.Weiss, Credit Rationing in Market With Imperfect Information[J] America Economic Review,1981
[27]查尔斯·P.金德尔伯格,金融危机史(第四版)[M].商务印书馆,2003
[28]乔治·索罗斯,索罗斯带你走出金融危机[M].机械工业出版社,2008
[29]李凤云,金融危机深度解读[M].人民邮电出版社,2009.
[30]蒋林,回眸1929年大萧条与当前金融危机有四点不同[N]广州日报2008
[31]金柏松,1929年:潜伏的危机导致美国经济崩溃[J].人民论坛,2007
[32]汪时锋,东南亚金融危机十年再反思[N].第一财经日报,2007
[33]金岩石,从纳斯达克股灾看中国股市[N]中国证券报,2007
[34]李海明,美元霸权制度才是全球金融危机的根源[N],南方都市报,2009
[35]方显仓,我国货币政策信用渠道传导论[M].上海财经大学,2009
①郭朝晖,周虹.基于美国次贷危机视角的我国资产证券化发展[J].特区经济, 2008, (12) :107-108
[1]易宪容.“次贷危机”对中国房市的启示[ J ].人民论坛,2007, (17) : 32 - 33.
[2]付敏.我国资产证券化问题讨论综述[ J ].经济理论与经济管理, 2006, (4) : 75 - 79.
[3] [芬兰]大卫·G·梅斯等著.方文等译.改进银行监管[M ].北京:中国人民大学出版社, 2006.
[4]徐孟洲,徐阳光.论金融机构破产之理念更新与制度设计[ J ].首都师范大学学报(社会科学版) , 2006, (1) : 26 - 32.
[5]祁敬宇.金融监管学[M ].西安:西安交通大学出版社,2007
[6]巴曙松.美国“次贷危机”的三大悬念[ J ].人民论坛,2007, (17) : 28 - 30.
[7]陈兵建.美国次贷危机对中国金融监管的启示[J]发展, 2008,(07)
[8]陈天宇.当前我国个人住房抵押贷款风险分析及对策研究[D]青岛大学, 2008 .
[9]夏鸥.我国房贷证券化法律制度论析[D]湖南大学, 2008 .
[10]吴佳菁.次贷危机的原因分析及对我国的启示[D]华东师范大学, 2008
[11]John Kiff ,and Paul Mills. Recent Developments in U.S.Subprime Mortgage Markets .IMF Working Paper. http:www.imf.org: July 2007,
[12]甄炳禧.透视美国次贷危机及对我国的启示[J]经济与管理研究, 2007,(11)
[13]宋佳娟.浅析金融衍生工具的风险监管[J].科技信息(学术研究), 2008, (36) :655
[14]宫祥宇.美国次贷危机对我国商业银行的启示[J].经营管理者, 2008, (16) :155
[15]郭朝晖,周虹.基于美国次贷危机视角的我国资产证券化发展[J].特区经济, 2008, (12) :107-108
[16].Duffie,Darrell,and Kenneth J.Singleton. Credit Risk:Pricing,Measurement, and Management[M].Princeton University Press,Princeton,NJ,2003
[17]Bielecki,T.,and M.Rutkowski. Credit Risk:Modeling,Valuation,and Hedging[M]. New York:Springer,2002
[18].张陶伟.信用衍生产品创新[J].中国金融,2006(19)
[19].金中夏,张甜甜.信用衍生产品市场发展对金融稳定的意义[J].中国金融,2007(8)
[20]孙森,张文彬.信用违约互换.华北金融[J],2007(3)
[21]易华,信用衍生产品及其监管[J].中国金融,2006(2)
[22]Morgan, Credit Mertrics and Technical Document[M].,1997.
[23]肖慧超,浅析信用风险对经济次序的影响.黑龙江金融,2001(6)
[24]凯恩斯,就业、利息和货币通论[M].商务印书馆,1981
[25]王小弈,世界部分国家征信系统概述[G],2002
[26]Stiglitz,J.E and A.Weiss, Credit Rationing in Market With Imperfect Information[J] America Economic Review,1981
[27]查尔斯·P.金德尔伯格,金融危机史(第四版)[M].商务印书馆,2003
[28]乔治·索罗斯,索罗斯带你走出金融危机[M].机械工业出版社,2008
[29]李凤云,金融危机深度解读[M].人民邮电出版社,2009.
[30]蒋林,回眸1929年大萧条与当前金融危机有四点不同[N]广州日报2008
[31]金柏松,1929年:潜伏的危机导致美国经济崩溃[J].人民论坛,2007
[32]汪时锋,东南亚金融危机十年再反思[N].第一财经日报,2007
[33]金岩石,从纳斯达克股灾看中国股市[N]中国证券报,2007
[34]李海明,美元霸权制度才是全球金融危机的根源[N],南方都市报,2009
[35]方显仓,我国货币政策信用渠道传导论[M].上海财经大学,2009