基于钼业市场联合度量的中国钼铁市场作用与价格波动研究
|
摘要
在经济全球化不断深入和市场机制不断完善的形势下,钼作为重要的战略金属之一,其产业发展前景极为广阔。但是,在产量稳中有升、供求基本达到平衡的同时,也出现了价格波动剧烈的现象,不利于钼业企业规避风险、实现可持续发展。
近年来,国内外学者针对钼业市场价格波动进行了理论和实证分析,由于分析的角度多为定性论述,得出的结论也千差万别,而以数据分析来说明问题的定量、半定量研究方法非常缺乏。有鉴于此,论文首次以计量分析方法对钼业市场进行了研究。论文在对近年来钼业发展状况进行了回顾与分析后,从四个方面对钼业市场进行了计量:第一,国际钼铁市场间价格波动关系及相互影响力衡量;第二,国际氧化钼市场间及其与钼铁市场间价格波动关系及相互影响力衡量;第三,中国钼业证券市场中证券价格波动关系及相互影响力衡量;第四,中国钼业证券市场与钼业实物市场间价格波动关系及相互影响力衡量。研究表明无论是否考虑汇率因素的影响,各个研究对象间均存在双向的价格发现功能,但引导能力有所差异。中国虽是钼业大国,对于国际市场的影响能力与其产业规模是不相适配的,离钼业强国仍有差距。此外,中国的钼业证券市场起步较晚,与实物市场之间互相影响有限,且呈现出悖论现象。论文对钼业市场的特征进行了深入研究,针对钼业市场的非有效性提出了钼业实现可持续发展的建议,并根据钼业市场的短期记忆性,利用协整模型、ARMA模型、Panel Data模型等动态测算钼业市场价格未来波动,在此基础上建立起直接考虑内生因素与外生因素的变动PD—ARMA模型,提高了预测精度。
论文的研究成果对中国钼业企业进行市场价格变化的科学预测和战略决策都有一定的理论意义和实践价值,也对政府制定有关钼业政策有一定的参考作用。
Molybdenum is one of the most important strategy metals, enjoys a promising market in terms of economic globalization and market economy system. However, there are wild fluctuations of molybdenum products' prices, with the continuous and steady growth of cumulative production as well as equilibrium of supply and demand, which was detrimental to risk averse and sustainable development in molybdenum enterprises.
However, theoretical and positivist analysis on price fluctuations at home and abroad focused on qualitative research method and the conclusions differed in thousands of ways, with the absence of quantity or semiquantity research. In view of these facts, the main researches in this paper are based on the econometric model and method for analysis of dynamic economic system.
After retrospective analysis of molybdenum industry's development situation in recent years, this paper measures the molybdenum industry from four aspects as follows: a) Price fluctuating and interactive relations in international ferro-molybdenum markets. b) Price fluctuating and interactive relations in international molybdenum oxide markets and between ferro-molybdenum markets and molybdenum oxide markets. c) Price fluctuating and interactive relations in China molybdenum stock market. d) Price fluctuating and interactive relations between China molybdenum stock market and ferro-molybdenum market. The research results show that China is a large country, but far from a strong country, in molybdenum industry, for there is not equilibrium of the industry scale and influential power whether exchange rates taken into consideration or not. The effect between stock market, which started rather late in China, and actual market in molybdenum was limited, concomitant with a paradox.
The deeper researches on molybdenum markets show their inefficient feature and come up with some advises on sustainable development of molybdenum industry. Under the short-term memory feature of molybdenum markets, the future price fluctuating dynamic measurement are based on Co-Integration models, ARMA models, Panel Data models and so on. A new method, PD—ARMA model, is also built, Taking both endogenous and ectogenous factors under consideration, it enhances the precision and accuracy.
The research results will have not only theoretical meaning but also practical value on price fluctuating prediction when strategy formulation. However, it also will have certain reference meaning to policymaking for molybdenum industry development.
近年来,国内外学者针对钼业市场价格波动进行了理论和实证分析,由于分析的角度多为定性论述,得出的结论也千差万别,而以数据分析来说明问题的定量、半定量研究方法非常缺乏。有鉴于此,论文首次以计量分析方法对钼业市场进行了研究。论文在对近年来钼业发展状况进行了回顾与分析后,从四个方面对钼业市场进行了计量:第一,国际钼铁市场间价格波动关系及相互影响力衡量;第二,国际氧化钼市场间及其与钼铁市场间价格波动关系及相互影响力衡量;第三,中国钼业证券市场中证券价格波动关系及相互影响力衡量;第四,中国钼业证券市场与钼业实物市场间价格波动关系及相互影响力衡量。研究表明无论是否考虑汇率因素的影响,各个研究对象间均存在双向的价格发现功能,但引导能力有所差异。中国虽是钼业大国,对于国际市场的影响能力与其产业规模是不相适配的,离钼业强国仍有差距。此外,中国的钼业证券市场起步较晚,与实物市场之间互相影响有限,且呈现出悖论现象。论文对钼业市场的特征进行了深入研究,针对钼业市场的非有效性提出了钼业实现可持续发展的建议,并根据钼业市场的短期记忆性,利用协整模型、ARMA模型、Panel Data模型等动态测算钼业市场价格未来波动,在此基础上建立起直接考虑内生因素与外生因素的变动PD—ARMA模型,提高了预测精度。
论文的研究成果对中国钼业企业进行市场价格变化的科学预测和战略决策都有一定的理论意义和实践价值,也对政府制定有关钼业政策有一定的参考作用。
Molybdenum is one of the most important strategy metals, enjoys a promising market in terms of economic globalization and market economy system. However, there are wild fluctuations of molybdenum products' prices, with the continuous and steady growth of cumulative production as well as equilibrium of supply and demand, which was detrimental to risk averse and sustainable development in molybdenum enterprises.
However, theoretical and positivist analysis on price fluctuations at home and abroad focused on qualitative research method and the conclusions differed in thousands of ways, with the absence of quantity or semiquantity research. In view of these facts, the main researches in this paper are based on the econometric model and method for analysis of dynamic economic system.
After retrospective analysis of molybdenum industry's development situation in recent years, this paper measures the molybdenum industry from four aspects as follows: a) Price fluctuating and interactive relations in international ferro-molybdenum markets. b) Price fluctuating and interactive relations in international molybdenum oxide markets and between ferro-molybdenum markets and molybdenum oxide markets. c) Price fluctuating and interactive relations in China molybdenum stock market. d) Price fluctuating and interactive relations between China molybdenum stock market and ferro-molybdenum market. The research results show that China is a large country, but far from a strong country, in molybdenum industry, for there is not equilibrium of the industry scale and influential power whether exchange rates taken into consideration or not. The effect between stock market, which started rather late in China, and actual market in molybdenum was limited, concomitant with a paradox.
The deeper researches on molybdenum markets show their inefficient feature and come up with some advises on sustainable development of molybdenum industry. Under the short-term memory feature of molybdenum markets, the future price fluctuating dynamic measurement are based on Co-Integration models, ARMA models, Panel Data models and so on. A new method, PD—ARMA model, is also built, Taking both endogenous and ectogenous factors under consideration, it enhances the precision and accuracy.
The research results will have not only theoretical meaning but also practical value on price fluctuating prediction when strategy formulation. However, it also will have certain reference meaning to policymaking for molybdenum industry development.
引文
[1]斯蒂芬·马丁.高级产业经济学.上海:上海财经大学出版社,2003
[2]William Stanley Jevons.The Coal Question.London:Macmillan and Co.,1866
[3]理查德·T.伊利,爱德华·W.莫尔豪斯.土地经济学原理.北京:商务印书馆,1982
[4]Ely and Morehouse.Elements of Land Economics.New York:The Macmillan Company,1924
[53 Harold Hotelling.The Economics of Exhaustible Resources.Journal of Political Economy,1931
[6]Vogt.W.Road to survival.New York:William Sloan,1948
[7]福格特.生存之路.北京:商务印书馆,1981
[8]Donella H.Meadows,Dennis L.Meadows,Jorgen Randers,and William W.Behrens Ⅲ.The Limits of Growth:A Report for the Club of Rome's Report on the Predicament of Mankind.NewYork:Universe Books.1972
[9]德内拉·梅多斯,乔根·兰德斯,丹尼斯·梅多斯.增长的极限.北京:商务印书馆,1984
[10]中国科学院可持续发展研究组.2000中国可持续发展战略报告.北京:科学出版社,2000
[11]宋涛主编.20世纪中国学术大典:经济学.福州:福建教育出版社,2002.555
[12]温家宝.政府工作报告-2004年3月5日在第十届全国人民代表大会上.中央文献出版社,2004
[13]Trzyna,T.C 1995.A sustainable world:defining and measuring sustainable development.Edited by Thaddeus,1995
[14]彭秀平.矿业可持续发展基本理论与动态评价方法:[博士学位论文].长沙:中南大学,2004.1-36
[15]何强,井文涌,王翊亭.环境学导论.北京:清华大学出版社,2004.296
[16]沈满洪.资源与环境经济学.北京:中国环境科学出版社,2007
[17]王克强,赵凯,刘红梅.资源与环境经济学.上海:上海财经大学出版社,2007
[18]Dasgupta Partha,Geoffrey Heal.The Optimal Depletion of Exhaustible Resources,The Review of Economic Studies,Vol.41,Symposium on the Economics of Exhaustible Resources,1974.3-28
[19]Harold Hotelling.The Economics of Exhaustible Resources.Journal of Political Economy,1931
[20]Stiglitz Joseph,Growth with Exhaustible Natural Resources:Efficient and Optimal Growth Paths,The Review of Economic Studies,Vol.41,Symposium on the Economics of Exhaustible Resources,1974.123-137,139-152
[21]Solow R.M.,Intergenerational Equity and Exhaustible Resources,The Review of Economic Studies,Vol.41,Symposium on the Economics of Exhaustible Resources,1974.29-45
[22]Aghion,P.and Howitt,P.,A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction.Econometrica 60,1992.323-351
[23]Aghion,P.and Howitt,P.,Growth and Unemployment.Review of Economic Studies 61,1994.477-494
[24]Aghion,P.and Howitt,P.,Endogenous Growth Theory.Cambridge,MA.MIT Press,1998
[25]Auty R.Sustaining Development in Mineral Economies:The Resource Curse Thesis.London and New York,1993
[26]Auty R.Resource Abundance and Economic Development.Oxford:Oxford University Press,2001
[27]Sachs J.Warner A Fundamental Sources of Long run Growth.American Economic Review,1997,(87):184-188
[28]林振山.资源约束下的三元函数区域增长模式.地理研究,2005,24(5):767-774
[29]徐康宁,韩剑.中国区域经济的资源诅咒效应:地区差距的另一种解释.经济学家,2005,(6):96-102
[30]徐康宁,王剑.自然资源丰裕程度与经济发展水平关系的研究.经济研究,2006(1):78-89
[31]Solow R.M.,Intergenerational Equity and Exhaustible Resources,The Review of Economic Studies,Vol.41,Symposium on the Economics of Exhaustible Resources,1974.29-45
[32]Nordhaus D.William,Robert N.Stavins,Martin L.Weitzman.Lethal Model 2:The Limits to Growth Revisited,Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,Vol.1992,No.2.1-59
[33]Neumayer,Eric.,Scarce or Abundant? The Economics of Natural Resource Availability,Journal of Economic Surveys,Vol.14,No.3(2000)
[34]杨敏陔.调整中国钼业结构问题的探讨.中国钼业,1997,21(05):3-6
[35]杨敏陔.关于中国钼可持续发展的思考.中国钼业,1998,22(04):3-6
[36]彭绍雨.钼业市场结构变化趋势与钼加工企业的发展对策.中国钼业,2005,29(03):6-10
[37]郭朝洪,崔养权.中国钼业当前进行战略性结构调整与资产重组的构想.中国钼业,2000,24(03):4-8
[38]张相一,赵宝华,杨刘晓,姚云芳.中国钼业现状及振兴钼业的建议.矿业研究与开发,2003,S1:50-55
[39]张文朴.中国钼业可持续发展战略与钼精细化工初探.中国钼业,1998,22(04):19-24
[40]张文朴.建设生态钼业 促进钼业循环经济发展.中国钼业,2008,32(03):12-15
[41]张文钲.中国钼矿综合利用现状和改进意见.中国钼业,1990,14(04):1-5
[42]张文钲.提高钼矿山经济效益的思考.中国钼业,1998,22(04):32-34
[43]张文钲.用高新技术改造钼企业 保持钼业可持续发展.中国钼业,2002,26(02):4-7
[44]关健,李自如.融通市场的中国钼业发展战略.中国有色金属学会第三届学术会议论文集--战略研究综述部分,1997
[45]陈忠典.栾川钼资源的开发利用和保护.中国钼业,1998,22(04):12-15
[46]王付民,卢才武.中国钼资源开发与进出口数学模型理论研究.中国钼业,1998,22(04):5-7,24
[47]吴爱祥,周勃.中国钼资源现状与可持续发展.中国钼业,1998,22(04):8-11
[48]杨建社,韩秋.国家矿产资源开发总量调控下钼行业的战略调整.中国金属通报,2007,42:7-10
[49]韩秋.钼矿山废旧物资管理模式.中国有色金属,2008,21:66-67
[50]石德俊.关于栾川钼业发展的思考.工程设计与研究,1996,02:8-13
[51]陈焱华.中国钼业亟需全面导入现代市场营销理念.中国钼业,1999,23(03):50-51
[52]陈国兴.整合中国钼工业,在WTO规则下取得最佳经济效益.中国钼业,2003,27(02).9-12
[53]彭如清.走新型工业化道路 全面提升中国钼工业竞争力.中国钼业,2003,27(02).1-4
[54]李发本.发挥河南钼资源优势,培育新的经济增长点--河南钼工业发展战略初探.科技,工程与经济社会协调发展--河南省第四届青年学术年会,2004
[55]张文钲,孙国英.1989年钼业年评.中国钼业,1990,14(04):1-9
[56]张文钲.1992年钼业年评.中国钼业,1993,17(02):1-9
[57]张文钲,孙国英.1993年钼业年评.中国钼业,1994,18(02):1-7
[58]张文钲,孙国英.1994年钼业年评.中国钼业,1995,19(02):6-13
[59]张文钲.1995年钼业年评.中国钼业,1996,20(02):3-12
[60]张文钲.1996年钼业年评.中国钼业,1997,21(01):3-9
[61]张文钲.1997年钼业年评.中国钼业,1997,21(06):3-9
[62]张文钲.1998年钼业年评.中国钼业,1998,22(06):3-8,12
[63]张文钲.1999年钼业年评.中国钼业,2000,24(01):3-8,23
[64]张文钲.2000年钼业年评.中国钼业,2001,25(01):17-21,25
[65]张文钲.2001年钼化工年评.中国钼业,2001,25(06):4-8
[66]张文钲.2002年钼业年评.中国钼业,2002,26(06):4-11
[67]崔恩静,张文钲.2003年钼业年评.中国钼业,2004,28(01):3-9
[68]张文钲.2004年钼业年评.中国钼业,2004,28(06):1-7
[69]张文钲.2005年钼业年评.中国钼业,2005,29(05):9-16
[70]张文钲.2006年钼业年评.中国钼业,2007,31(01):3-8
[71]张文钲.2007年钼业年评.中国钼业,2007,31(06):3-11
[72]康太成,张文钲.中国钼业四十年.中国钨业.1989,11:1-6
[73]张文钲.世界钼业20年.中国钼业,1997,21(Z1):11-17
[74]张文钲.21世纪钼业展望.中国钼业,1998,22(01):1-2
[75]王天久,齐铁桶.中国钼业的历史与现状.中国钼业,1996,20(01):51-52
[76]殷为宏.中国钼加工业的发展与展望.中国钼业,1996,20(01):3-7
[77]王顺昌.钼市评述--1995年回顾和1996年展望.中国钼业,1996,20(03):46-50
[78]王顺昌.1998年钼市回顾与1999年钼市展望.中国钼业,1999,23(03):52-55
[79]王顺昌.1999年钼市回顾与2000年钼市展望.中国钼业,2000,24(03):51-54
[80]王顺昌,周云忠.2000年钼市回顾与2001年钼市展望.中国钼业,2001,25(02):50-54
[81]王顺昌,周云忠.2003年钼市回顾与2004年钼市展望.中国钼业,2004,28(01):52-56
[82]中国有色金属工业协会.中国钼精矿,钼酸盐,钼粉及其制品生产及出口状况分析,2006
[83]杨刘晓,许洁瑜.2005年中国钼工业发展状况.中国钼业,2006,30(01):3-6
[84]许洁瑜.2006年中国钼工业发展现状.稀有金属快报,2007,26(04):11-17
[85]许洁瑜,韩慧芳.2007年中国钼工业发展现状.稀有金属快报,2008,27(04):11-17
[86]贾红秀,高丽梅,姜威.钼市场30年回顾与展望.中国钼业,2006,30(01):42-47
[87]贾红秀,高丽梅.2006年钼市场回顾与2007年展望.中国钼业,2007,31(02):50-54
[88]吕少辉,孙慧男.2007年钼市场回顾与展望.稀有金属快报,2008,27(01):18-22
[89]易意.2006,中国钼工业发展状况综述.中国金属通报,2007,07:12-14
[90]王昌,齐守智.钼价高位振幅小 钼矿投资开发多--世界钼经济近况.世界有色金属.2007,10:45-51
[91]Summary of Economic Conditions of China's Molybdenum Industry in 2007.China Nonferrous Metals Monthly,2008,04
[92]彭如清.中国丰富的钼资源可较长期保证中国钢铁工业发展.中国钼业,2007,31(02):55
[93]胡名洋.特殊钢市场运行与行业发展.第五届中国钨钼钒市场形势研讨会,2007
[94]2008年国际钼市上半年回顾与展望.铁合金,2008,04:44
[95]徐爱华.高位稳定运行渐成钼市主旋律--2007,全球钼市场回顾及后市展望.中国金属通报,2008,04:24-28
[96]徐爱华.国内钼消费现状及展望.中国金属通报,2008,43:24-25
[97]董允杰.国内外钼储量与开采年限.中国钼业,1996,20(01):33
[98]董允杰.国内外钼储量还能开采服务多少年?--兼析钼可持续发展问题.中国金属通报,2004,18:20-21
[99]王素梅,刘军民.世界钼业发展史上的特殊现象--钼精矿焙烧能力决定钼价格变化.中国钼业,2005,29(06):45-48
[100]赵敏,杨召会.钼精矿供应紧张支撑钼市场.稀有金属快报,2006,10:12-16
[101]安元华.中国钼业发展形势严峻.中国有色金属,2008,22:36-37
[102]杨敏陔,彭虎锋,何曼延等.国际钼价格系统变化研究.中国钼业,2001,25(01):9-16
[103]马健诚,梁工谦,郭永.中国钼业产品国际竞争力分析.国际贸易问题,2008.09:21-24
[104]Jan C.Wilt,Stanley B.Keith.MOLYBDENUM IN ARIZONA.FILELDNOTES(From The State Of Arizona Bureau Of Geology And Mineral Technology),1980,10(3):1-12
[105]Ken Reser.Molybdenum and Green Economics.BCC report,2006
[106]John W.Blossom.U.S.GEOLOGICAL SURVEY:MOLYBDENUM RECYCLING IN THE UNITED STATES IN 1998.U.S.DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR,Open File Report 02-165
[107]Porter,M.E.,The Contribution of Industrial Organization to Strategic Management.Academy of Management Review,1981(6).609-620
[108]迈克尔·波特.竞争战略:分析产业和竞争者的技巧.北京:华夏出版社,1997
[109]吴泗宗.市场营销学.北京:清华大学出版社,2005:29-33
[110]赵纯均.工商管理研究备要--现状、趋势和发展思路.北京:清华大学出版社,2004:316
[111]杰恩·巴尼.获得与保持竞争优势.北京:清华大学出版社,2003:140
[112]于立,吴绪亮.纵向限制的经济逻辑与反垄断政策.北京:中国工业经济2005,209(8):24-25
[113]中华人民共和国国土资源部国土资发[1999]104号.关于对稀土等(稀土、钨、锡、锑、煤、钼、重晶石、萤石)八种矿产暂停颁发采矿许可证的通知,1999-04-23
[114]中华人民共和国国土资源部国土资发[2005]200号.关于规范勘查许可证 采矿许可证权限有关问题的通知,2005-09-30
[115]中华人民共和国财政部,中华人民共和国国家税务总局财税[2005]168号.关于调整钼矿石等品目资源税政策的通知,2005-12-12
[116]中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会,中华人民共和国商务部令第13号.中西部地区外商投资优势产业目录(2004,修订),2004-07-23
[117]中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会,中华人民共和国商务部令第24号.外商投资产业指导目录,2004-11-30
[118]中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会,商务部令第57号.外商投资产业指导目录(2007,修订),2007-10-31
[119]中华人民共和国海关总署公告2007年第67号,2007-11-26
[120]中华人民共和国财政部,中华人民共和国国家税务总局财税[2003]222号.关于调整出口货物退税率的通知,2003-10-13
[121]中华人民共和国财政部,中华人民共和国国家税务总局财税[2005]75号.关于调整部分产品出口退税率的通知,2005-04-29
[122]中华人民共和国国务院关税税则委员会税委会(2007)8号.关于调整部分商品进出口暂定税率的通知,2007-05-18
[123]中华人民共和国海关总署公告2007年第22号,2007-05-30
[124]中华人民共和国商务部公告2007年第25号.铟,钼出口许可证申领标准和申报程序,2007-03-09
[125]中华人民共和国商务部公告2007年第47号,公布符合铟,钼出口许可证申领标准的企业名单,2007-05-23
[126]中华人民共和国商务部,中华人民共和国海关总署公告2007年第54号.实行出口配额许可证管理商品目录(铟,钼),2007-6-11
[127]中华人民共和国商务部办公厅,中华人民共和国海关总署办公厅商产字(2007)67号.关于2007年第54号公告有关加工贸易问题的补充通知,2007-08-02
[128]中华人民共和国商务部公告2007年第89号.铟,钼出口许可证申领补充标准和申报程序,2007-10-24
[129]中华人民共和国商务部公告2007年第107号.符合铟,钼出口许可证申领补充标准的出口企业名单,2007-12-18
[130]中华人民共和国商务部,中华人民共和国海关总署公告2007年第101号.2008,出口许可证管理货物目录,2007-12-29
[131]中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会公告2008年第13号附件一.铁合金行业准入条件(2008,修订),2008-02-04
[132]中华人民共和国商务部公告2008年第78号.关于2009年铟,钼出口企业,审标准和审核程序的公告,2008-10-09
[133]中华人民共和国商务部公告2008年第83号.2009年农产品和工业品出口配额总量,2008-10-10
[134]中华人民共和国商务部公告2008年第104号.符合2009年铟,钼出口许可证申领标准企业名单,2008-12-09
[135]辽政办发(2007)12号.辽宁省人民政府办公厅转发省经委等部门关于加强全省钼行业管理意见的通知,2007-3-8
[136]河南省人民政府豫政(2007)59号.河南省人民政府关于鼓励支持企业开发利用境外矿产资源的意见.2007-08-23
[137]河南省人民政府办公厅豫政办(2008)23号.河南省人民政府办公厅关于做好2008年企业上市工作的通知.2008-04-03
[138]王学民.应用概率统计.上海:上海财经大学出版社,2005
[139]William Greene,Econometric Analysis,Third Edition(Prentice Hall,1997.308-309
[140]孙敬水.计量经济学教程.北京:清华大学出版社,北京交通大学出版社,2005.51
[141]孙敬水.计量经济学.北京:清华大学出版社,2004.57-59
[142]Beveridge,S.,and C.R.Nelson,A New Approach to Decomposition of Economic Time Series into Permanent and Transitory Components with Particular Attention to Measurement of the Business Cycle,Journal of Monetary Economics,1981,7.151-174
[143]王升.计量经济学导论.北京:清华大学出版社,2006.144-145
[144]Box and Pierce,Distribution of Residual Autocorrelations in Auto regressive Integrated Moving Average Time Series Models,Journal of the American Statistical Association.1970,65.1509-1526
[145]Ljung,G.M.and Box,G.E.P..On a measure of lack of fit in time series models.Biometrika 1978,65.553-564
[146]S M Wu.Manufacturing Science and Technology for the 21st Century.International Academic Publishers,1994:288
[147]饶友玲.经管财金建模方法及应用.北京:清华大学出版社,2005.169
[148]约翰·Y·坎贝尔,安德鲁·W·罗,艾·克雷格·麦金雷.金融市场计量学.上海:上海财经大学出版社,2003.23-42
[149]Fuller,W.A.Introduction to statistical time series.Wiley,New York, 1976
[150]Dickey, D.A., Fuller, W.A., 1981, Likelihocd ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Econometrica 49(4). 1057-1072
[151]Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W.A. Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, J. American Statistical Assn. 1979, 74. 427-431
[152]Phillips, Peter C. B., and P. Perron. Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression, Biometrika, 1988,75(2). 335—346
[153]Phillips, Peter C. B., and P. Perron,Time Series Regression with a Unit Root. In Econometrica 1987,55. 277—302
[154]Durbin, J., and Watson, G. S., Testing for Serial Correlation in Least Squares Regression, I. Biometrika 1950, 37. 409-428
[155]Durbin, J., and Watson, G. S., Testing for Serial Correlation in Least Squares Regression, II. Biometrika 1951, 38. 159-179
[156]Akaike, Hirotsugu . A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 1974, 19(6). 716-723
[157]U. J. Schwarz, Mathematical-statistical description of the iterative beam removing technique (Method CLEAN), Astronomy and Astrophysics, 1978, 65. 345
[158]Kodde, David A & Palm, Franz C, Wald Criteria for Jointly Testing Equality and Inequality Restriction s, Econometrica, Econometric Society, 1986, 54(5). 1243—1248
[i59]李子奈.高等计量经济学.北京:清华大学出版社, 2000.331
[160]Newey WK & West KD . A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite,Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix. Econometrica, 1987, 55. 703—708
[161]Davidson, J. E. H., Hendry, D. F., Srba, F. and Yeo, J. S. Econometric Modeling of the Aggregate Time-series Relationship Between Consumer's Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom, Economic Journal, 1978, 88. 661-692
[162]Engle, R. F, and C. E. J. Grange. Cointegrated Economic Time Series:An Overview with New Results, in R. F. Engle and C. W. J. Ganger(eds), Lo ng-run Economic Relationships Oxford University Press,Oxford,1991.237-266
[163]张世英,樊智.协整理论与波动模型.北京:清华大学出版社.2004.86-87
[164]Dickey,D.A.and Fuller,W.A..Distributions of The Estimators For Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root,Journal of the American Statistical Association,1979,754.427-431
[165]Dickey,D.A.,Bell,W.R.and Miller,R.B..Unit Roots in Time Series Models:Tests and Implications,The American Statistician,1986,40.12-26
[166]Engle,R.F.and Granger,C.W.J..Co-integration and Error Correction:Representation,Estimation and Testing,Econometrica,1987,55.251-276
[167]Johansen,S.and Juselius,K..Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration -with application to the demand for money,Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,1990,52.169-210
[168]FISHER R.A.,A mathematical examination of the methods of determining the accuracy of an observation by the mean error,and by the mean square error,Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 80,1920.758-770.[reprinted as Paper 12 in Fisher,19743.[FISHER R.A.,The collected papers of R.A.Fisher(ed.J.H.Bennett),Adelaide,University of Adelaide Press,1974.
[169]罗伯特.S.平狄克,丹尼尔.L.鲁宾费尔德.计量经济模型与经济预测.北京:机械工业出版社,2006.53-55
[170]Granger,Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods,Econometrica,1969,37(3)
[171]Sargent,Thomas J.A Classical Macroeconometric Model for the United States,Journal of Political Economy,University of Chicago Press,1976,84(2).207-237
[172]Granger,,C.W.J.Testing for causality:A personal viewpoint,Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,Elsevier,1980,2(1).329-352
[173]Granger,Some recent developments in a concept of causality,Journal of Econometrics,1988,39
[174]Sims, Christopher A. Macroeconomics and Reality, Econometrica,Econometric Society, 1980.48(1). 1—48.
[175]Kincho H.Law, David R. Mackay, A parallel row-oriented sparse solution method for finite element structural analysis,International Journal for Numerical Methods in Engineering, 1993,36. 2896-2919
[176]Gill,P.E. Saunders, M. A.and Shinnerl, J. R., On the stability of Cholesky factorization for symmetric quasidefinite systems, SIAM J.Matrix Anal.Appl. 1996, 17
[177]赵金熙.对称不定矩阵的广义 Cho lesky分解法.计算数学,1996,18(4) : 442-448
[178]King, Rober., Plosser, C. I., Stock, J. H. and Watson, M.M. Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations, American Economic Review, 1991. 819—840
[179]Zhou, Su. The Response of Real Exchange Rates of Various Economic Shocks, Southern Economic Journal, 1996. 936—954
[180]Kydland, F. E., Prescott, E. C. Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review,1990.3-18
[181]David Romer, Advanced Macroeconomics. The McGraw-Nill Education, 2001. 169—170
[182]Brock W., J. Lakonishok, and B. LeBaron, Simple Technical Trading Rule and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Return, Journal of Finance, 1992, 41.1731-1764
[183]Bessembinder, H., K. Chan, The profitability of technical trading rules in the Asian. stock markets, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal,1995, 3.257-284
[184]Ito. Profits on technical trading rules and time-varying expected returns: Evidence from Pacific-Basin equity markets. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 1999, 7
[185]Fama, Eugene F. , Blume. Filter rules and stock market trading profits. Journal of Business 1966, 39
[186]Fama, Eugene F. Efficient capital markets:a review of theory and empirical work. Journal of Finance, 1970, 25.383—417.
[187]Fama,Eugene F.Efficient capital markets:Ⅱ.Journal of Finance 1991,46.383-420
[188]Fama,Eugene F.Market Efficiency,Long-Term Returns,and Behavioral Finance,Journal of Financial Economics,1997,49(3).283-306
[189]Fama,Eugene F.Market efficiency,long-term returns,and behavioral finance.Journal of Financial Economics,1998,49.307-343
[190]Robert F.Mulligan.Fractal analysis of highly volatile market s:an application to technology equities The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance.2004,44.155-179.
[191]何孝星.证券投资理论与实务.清华大学出版社.2004.55
[192]Mandelbort B.B.,Fractals:form,chance and dimension,San Francisco:Freeman,1977
[193]埃得加·E·彼得斯.资本市场的混沌与秩序.北京:经济科学出版社,1999
[194]樊智,张世英.金融市场的效率与分形市场理论.系统工程理论与实践,2002(3):13-20.
[195]埃得加·E·彼得斯.分形市场分析一将混沌理论应用到投资与经济理论上.北京:经济科学出版社,2002.59-62
[196]约翰.Y.坎贝尔、安德鲁·W.罗,艾·克雷格·麦金雷.金融市场计量学.上海:上海财经大学出版社,2003.23-42
[197]Hurst,H.E.,Long-term storage capacity of reservoirs,Transactions of American Society Civil Engineers,1951,116.770-808
[198]Mandelbrot,B.B.,Statistical methodology for non-periodic cycles:from the covariance to R/S analysis,Annals of Economic and Social Measurement,1972,1.257-288.
[199]Mandelbrot B B,Wallis J R.Noah,Joseph and Operational Hydrology.Water Resources Research,1968,4(5).909-918
[200]Mandelbrot,B.B..When Can Price Be ArbitragedEfficiently? A Limit to the Validity of the Random Walkand Martingale Models.Review of Economics and Statistics.1971,53.225-236
[201]Mandelbrot,B.B..Statistical Methodology for Non-Periodic Cycles:From the Covariance to R/S Analysis.Annals of Economic and Social Measurement 1972,1.259-290
[202]Mandelbrot,B.B..Limit Theorems on the Self-Normalized Range for Weakly and Strongly DependentProcesses.Z. Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie verw. gebiete31, 1975. 271-285
[203]Mandelbrot, B. B. and J. W. van Ness. FractionalBrownian motions,fractional noises and applications. SIAM Review , 1968, 4. 422—437
[204]Greene, M. and B. Fielitz. Long-term dependencein common stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics 1977, 4. 339-349
[205]Andrew W. Lo. Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices, Econometrica,1991, 59 (5). 1279-1313
[206]Liudas Giraitis, Piotr Kokoszka, Remigi jus Leipus, GillesTeyssiere,Rescaled variance and related tests for long memory in volatility and levels, Journal of Econometrics, 2003. 112. 265-294
[207]McLeod, A. I. & Hipel, K. W.. Preservation of the rescaled adjusted range, Part 1, A reassessment of the Hurst phenomenon, Water Resources Research 1978, 14. 491-508
[208]P. Brockwell., and R. Davis. Time Series: Theory and Methods. Second edition. New York: Springer-Verlag, 1991. Chapters 8 and 10
[209]Peters, E. E. Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets, New York, John Wiley and Sons, 1991
[210]Odean, Terrance. Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average. Journal of Finance, December 1998, 53(6).1887-1934
[211]Odean, Terrance. Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses? Journal of Finance, October 1998, 53(5). 1775—1798
[212]Benos, Alexandros V. Aggressiveness and Survival of Overconfident Traders. Journal of Financial Markets, 1998(1). 353—383
[213]Simon, Mark and Susan, Houghton, The Relationship Between Overconf idence and the Introduction of Risky Products: Evidence From A Field Study, Academy of Management Journal, 2003, 4 (2). 139—149
[214]Box G E P, Jenkins G M, Reinsel G C. Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. The third edition. NY: Prentice-Hall Inc. 1994
[215]Dervoot M V, Dougherty M, Watson S. Combining KOHOEN maps with ARIMA time series model to forecast traffic flow. Transportation Research,1996, 4(5). 307-318
[216]Box G E P, Jenkins G M. Time series anaylsis: orcasting and control: revised edition.San Francisco:Holden-Day,1976
[217]杨奕农.Box-Jenkins的ARMA模型.yaya.it.cycu.edu.tw台湾中原大学远距教育网站
[218]杨奕农.ARMA:报酬之预测.yaya.it.cycu.edu.tw台湾中原大学远距教育网站
[219]Rosenstein M T,Cohen P R.Concepts from time series.Fifteenth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence,Madison,Wisconsin,1998
[220]Das G,Lin K,Mannila H,et al.Rule discovery from time series.Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining,Madison,Wisconsin,1998
[221]Han J,Dong G,Yin Y.Efficient mining of partial periodic patterns in time series databases.Proceedings of the fifteenth International Conference on Data Engineering,Sydney,Australia,1999
[222]Mundlak,Y.,Empirical Productions Free of Management Bias,Journal of Farm Economics,1961(43),44-56
[223]Balestra,P.,and M.Nerlove Pooling Cross-Section and Time-Series Data in the Estimation of a Dynamic Economic Model:The Demand for Natural Gas,Econometric,1966(34),585-612
[224]Hsiao,C.,K.Lahiri,L.F.Lee and H.Pesaran,eds.,Analysis of Panel Data and Limited Dependent Variable Models,Cambridge University Press:Cambridge,1999
[225]Hsiao,Cheng,Analysis of Panel Data,Cambridge University Press,Second Edition,2002
[226]Klevmarken,N.Anders.Introduction,European Economic Review,Elsevier,1989,33(2-3),523-529
[227]王贵鹏.基于非平稳面板数据的生产函数估计.生产力研究 2007(04):24
[228]McConell,G.,S.Fabris,J.Proietto,and M.Hargreaves.Effect of carbohydrate ingestion on glucos(?) kinetics during exercise.J.Appl.Physiol.1989(77).1537-1541
[229]Pedroni,P.Panel Cointegration:Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled TimeSeries Tests With an Application to the PPP Hypothesis.Indiana University Working Papers In Economics,1995. 95-113
[230]周建,李子奈.Granger因果关系检验的适用性.清华大学学报:自然科学版,2004,44(3):358-361
[231]张晓峒,赵初晓.小样本杜宾-瓦尔特森统计量的分布特征.南开经济研究.1999(12):40-43
[232]张晓峒,大川勉,张世英.小样本DF统计量的分布特征.系统工程理论与实践.1999(3):31-37
[233]张本祥.非线性动力学的理论及应用.长春:吉林人民出版社,2001.23-25
[234]Granger C.Forecasting volatility in financial,markets:a reciew.Journal of Economic Literature,2003,41.478-539
[235]宋颂兴,金伟根.上海股市市场有效性实证研究.经济学家,1995(4)
[236]陈小悦,陈晓,顾斌.中国股市弱式效率的实证研究.会计研究,1997(9)
[237]李亚静,朱宏泉,彭育威.基于GARCH模型族的中国股市波动性预测.数学的实践与认识,2003,33(11):65-71
[238]郑周.基于不同分布假设GARCH模型对上证指数波动性预测能力的比较研究.价值工程,2004(3):70-72
[239]张亦春:周颖刚.中国股市弱式有效研究综述.当代财经.2001,201(8):30-32
[240]Chen,Y.T.On the Discrimination of Competing GARCH-type Models for Taiwan Stock Index Returns,Academia Economic Papers,2003,31.369-405
[241]Chen Y.T.Chou R.Y.and Kuan C.M.Testing for Time Reversibility without Moment Restrictions,Journal of Econometrics,2000,95.199-218
[242]徐龙炳.中国股票市场股票收益稳态特性的实证研究.金融研究.2001,6:36-43
[243]莫扬.股票市场波动性的国际比较研究.数量经济技术经济研究.2004,10:51-58
[244]Liu,L.,Rettenmaier,A.J.and Wang,Z.The Long-Run Relationship between Gross Domestic Product Growth and Stock Returns,Working Paper,Private Enterprise Research Center,Texas A&M University.2005
[2]William Stanley Jevons.The Coal Question.London:Macmillan and Co.,1866
[3]理查德·T.伊利,爱德华·W.莫尔豪斯.土地经济学原理.北京:商务印书馆,1982
[4]Ely and Morehouse.Elements of Land Economics.New York:The Macmillan Company,1924
[53 Harold Hotelling.The Economics of Exhaustible Resources.Journal of Political Economy,1931
[6]Vogt.W.Road to survival.New York:William Sloan,1948
[7]福格特.生存之路.北京:商务印书馆,1981
[8]Donella H.Meadows,Dennis L.Meadows,Jorgen Randers,and William W.Behrens Ⅲ.The Limits of Growth:A Report for the Club of Rome's Report on the Predicament of Mankind.NewYork:Universe Books.1972
[9]德内拉·梅多斯,乔根·兰德斯,丹尼斯·梅多斯.增长的极限.北京:商务印书馆,1984
[10]中国科学院可持续发展研究组.2000中国可持续发展战略报告.北京:科学出版社,2000
[11]宋涛主编.20世纪中国学术大典:经济学.福州:福建教育出版社,2002.555
[12]温家宝.政府工作报告-2004年3月5日在第十届全国人民代表大会上.中央文献出版社,2004
[13]Trzyna,T.C 1995.A sustainable world:defining and measuring sustainable development.Edited by Thaddeus,1995
[14]彭秀平.矿业可持续发展基本理论与动态评价方法:[博士学位论文].长沙:中南大学,2004.1-36
[15]何强,井文涌,王翊亭.环境学导论.北京:清华大学出版社,2004.296
[16]沈满洪.资源与环境经济学.北京:中国环境科学出版社,2007
[17]王克强,赵凯,刘红梅.资源与环境经济学.上海:上海财经大学出版社,2007
[18]Dasgupta Partha,Geoffrey Heal.The Optimal Depletion of Exhaustible Resources,The Review of Economic Studies,Vol.41,Symposium on the Economics of Exhaustible Resources,1974.3-28
[19]Harold Hotelling.The Economics of Exhaustible Resources.Journal of Political Economy,1931
[20]Stiglitz Joseph,Growth with Exhaustible Natural Resources:Efficient and Optimal Growth Paths,The Review of Economic Studies,Vol.41,Symposium on the Economics of Exhaustible Resources,1974.123-137,139-152
[21]Solow R.M.,Intergenerational Equity and Exhaustible Resources,The Review of Economic Studies,Vol.41,Symposium on the Economics of Exhaustible Resources,1974.29-45
[22]Aghion,P.and Howitt,P.,A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction.Econometrica 60,1992.323-351
[23]Aghion,P.and Howitt,P.,Growth and Unemployment.Review of Economic Studies 61,1994.477-494
[24]Aghion,P.and Howitt,P.,Endogenous Growth Theory.Cambridge,MA.MIT Press,1998
[25]Auty R.Sustaining Development in Mineral Economies:The Resource Curse Thesis.London and New York,1993
[26]Auty R.Resource Abundance and Economic Development.Oxford:Oxford University Press,2001
[27]Sachs J.Warner A Fundamental Sources of Long run Growth.American Economic Review,1997,(87):184-188
[28]林振山.资源约束下的三元函数区域增长模式.地理研究,2005,24(5):767-774
[29]徐康宁,韩剑.中国区域经济的资源诅咒效应:地区差距的另一种解释.经济学家,2005,(6):96-102
[30]徐康宁,王剑.自然资源丰裕程度与经济发展水平关系的研究.经济研究,2006(1):78-89
[31]Solow R.M.,Intergenerational Equity and Exhaustible Resources,The Review of Economic Studies,Vol.41,Symposium on the Economics of Exhaustible Resources,1974.29-45
[32]Nordhaus D.William,Robert N.Stavins,Martin L.Weitzman.Lethal Model 2:The Limits to Growth Revisited,Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,Vol.1992,No.2.1-59
[33]Neumayer,Eric.,Scarce or Abundant? The Economics of Natural Resource Availability,Journal of Economic Surveys,Vol.14,No.3(2000)
[34]杨敏陔.调整中国钼业结构问题的探讨.中国钼业,1997,21(05):3-6
[35]杨敏陔.关于中国钼可持续发展的思考.中国钼业,1998,22(04):3-6
[36]彭绍雨.钼业市场结构变化趋势与钼加工企业的发展对策.中国钼业,2005,29(03):6-10
[37]郭朝洪,崔养权.中国钼业当前进行战略性结构调整与资产重组的构想.中国钼业,2000,24(03):4-8
[38]张相一,赵宝华,杨刘晓,姚云芳.中国钼业现状及振兴钼业的建议.矿业研究与开发,2003,S1:50-55
[39]张文朴.中国钼业可持续发展战略与钼精细化工初探.中国钼业,1998,22(04):19-24
[40]张文朴.建设生态钼业 促进钼业循环经济发展.中国钼业,2008,32(03):12-15
[41]张文钲.中国钼矿综合利用现状和改进意见.中国钼业,1990,14(04):1-5
[42]张文钲.提高钼矿山经济效益的思考.中国钼业,1998,22(04):32-34
[43]张文钲.用高新技术改造钼企业 保持钼业可持续发展.中国钼业,2002,26(02):4-7
[44]关健,李自如.融通市场的中国钼业发展战略.中国有色金属学会第三届学术会议论文集--战略研究综述部分,1997
[45]陈忠典.栾川钼资源的开发利用和保护.中国钼业,1998,22(04):12-15
[46]王付民,卢才武.中国钼资源开发与进出口数学模型理论研究.中国钼业,1998,22(04):5-7,24
[47]吴爱祥,周勃.中国钼资源现状与可持续发展.中国钼业,1998,22(04):8-11
[48]杨建社,韩秋.国家矿产资源开发总量调控下钼行业的战略调整.中国金属通报,2007,42:7-10
[49]韩秋.钼矿山废旧物资管理模式.中国有色金属,2008,21:66-67
[50]石德俊.关于栾川钼业发展的思考.工程设计与研究,1996,02:8-13
[51]陈焱华.中国钼业亟需全面导入现代市场营销理念.中国钼业,1999,23(03):50-51
[52]陈国兴.整合中国钼工业,在WTO规则下取得最佳经济效益.中国钼业,2003,27(02).9-12
[53]彭如清.走新型工业化道路 全面提升中国钼工业竞争力.中国钼业,2003,27(02).1-4
[54]李发本.发挥河南钼资源优势,培育新的经济增长点--河南钼工业发展战略初探.科技,工程与经济社会协调发展--河南省第四届青年学术年会,2004
[55]张文钲,孙国英.1989年钼业年评.中国钼业,1990,14(04):1-9
[56]张文钲.1992年钼业年评.中国钼业,1993,17(02):1-9
[57]张文钲,孙国英.1993年钼业年评.中国钼业,1994,18(02):1-7
[58]张文钲,孙国英.1994年钼业年评.中国钼业,1995,19(02):6-13
[59]张文钲.1995年钼业年评.中国钼业,1996,20(02):3-12
[60]张文钲.1996年钼业年评.中国钼业,1997,21(01):3-9
[61]张文钲.1997年钼业年评.中国钼业,1997,21(06):3-9
[62]张文钲.1998年钼业年评.中国钼业,1998,22(06):3-8,12
[63]张文钲.1999年钼业年评.中国钼业,2000,24(01):3-8,23
[64]张文钲.2000年钼业年评.中国钼业,2001,25(01):17-21,25
[65]张文钲.2001年钼化工年评.中国钼业,2001,25(06):4-8
[66]张文钲.2002年钼业年评.中国钼业,2002,26(06):4-11
[67]崔恩静,张文钲.2003年钼业年评.中国钼业,2004,28(01):3-9
[68]张文钲.2004年钼业年评.中国钼业,2004,28(06):1-7
[69]张文钲.2005年钼业年评.中国钼业,2005,29(05):9-16
[70]张文钲.2006年钼业年评.中国钼业,2007,31(01):3-8
[71]张文钲.2007年钼业年评.中国钼业,2007,31(06):3-11
[72]康太成,张文钲.中国钼业四十年.中国钨业.1989,11:1-6
[73]张文钲.世界钼业20年.中国钼业,1997,21(Z1):11-17
[74]张文钲.21世纪钼业展望.中国钼业,1998,22(01):1-2
[75]王天久,齐铁桶.中国钼业的历史与现状.中国钼业,1996,20(01):51-52
[76]殷为宏.中国钼加工业的发展与展望.中国钼业,1996,20(01):3-7
[77]王顺昌.钼市评述--1995年回顾和1996年展望.中国钼业,1996,20(03):46-50
[78]王顺昌.1998年钼市回顾与1999年钼市展望.中国钼业,1999,23(03):52-55
[79]王顺昌.1999年钼市回顾与2000年钼市展望.中国钼业,2000,24(03):51-54
[80]王顺昌,周云忠.2000年钼市回顾与2001年钼市展望.中国钼业,2001,25(02):50-54
[81]王顺昌,周云忠.2003年钼市回顾与2004年钼市展望.中国钼业,2004,28(01):52-56
[82]中国有色金属工业协会.中国钼精矿,钼酸盐,钼粉及其制品生产及出口状况分析,2006
[83]杨刘晓,许洁瑜.2005年中国钼工业发展状况.中国钼业,2006,30(01):3-6
[84]许洁瑜.2006年中国钼工业发展现状.稀有金属快报,2007,26(04):11-17
[85]许洁瑜,韩慧芳.2007年中国钼工业发展现状.稀有金属快报,2008,27(04):11-17
[86]贾红秀,高丽梅,姜威.钼市场30年回顾与展望.中国钼业,2006,30(01):42-47
[87]贾红秀,高丽梅.2006年钼市场回顾与2007年展望.中国钼业,2007,31(02):50-54
[88]吕少辉,孙慧男.2007年钼市场回顾与展望.稀有金属快报,2008,27(01):18-22
[89]易意.2006,中国钼工业发展状况综述.中国金属通报,2007,07:12-14
[90]王昌,齐守智.钼价高位振幅小 钼矿投资开发多--世界钼经济近况.世界有色金属.2007,10:45-51
[91]Summary of Economic Conditions of China's Molybdenum Industry in 2007.China Nonferrous Metals Monthly,2008,04
[92]彭如清.中国丰富的钼资源可较长期保证中国钢铁工业发展.中国钼业,2007,31(02):55
[93]胡名洋.特殊钢市场运行与行业发展.第五届中国钨钼钒市场形势研讨会,2007
[94]2008年国际钼市上半年回顾与展望.铁合金,2008,04:44
[95]徐爱华.高位稳定运行渐成钼市主旋律--2007,全球钼市场回顾及后市展望.中国金属通报,2008,04:24-28
[96]徐爱华.国内钼消费现状及展望.中国金属通报,2008,43:24-25
[97]董允杰.国内外钼储量与开采年限.中国钼业,1996,20(01):33
[98]董允杰.国内外钼储量还能开采服务多少年?--兼析钼可持续发展问题.中国金属通报,2004,18:20-21
[99]王素梅,刘军民.世界钼业发展史上的特殊现象--钼精矿焙烧能力决定钼价格变化.中国钼业,2005,29(06):45-48
[100]赵敏,杨召会.钼精矿供应紧张支撑钼市场.稀有金属快报,2006,10:12-16
[101]安元华.中国钼业发展形势严峻.中国有色金属,2008,22:36-37
[102]杨敏陔,彭虎锋,何曼延等.国际钼价格系统变化研究.中国钼业,2001,25(01):9-16
[103]马健诚,梁工谦,郭永.中国钼业产品国际竞争力分析.国际贸易问题,2008.09:21-24
[104]Jan C.Wilt,Stanley B.Keith.MOLYBDENUM IN ARIZONA.FILELDNOTES(From The State Of Arizona Bureau Of Geology And Mineral Technology),1980,10(3):1-12
[105]Ken Reser.Molybdenum and Green Economics.BCC report,2006
[106]John W.Blossom.U.S.GEOLOGICAL SURVEY:MOLYBDENUM RECYCLING IN THE UNITED STATES IN 1998.U.S.DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR,Open File Report 02-165
[107]Porter,M.E.,The Contribution of Industrial Organization to Strategic Management.Academy of Management Review,1981(6).609-620
[108]迈克尔·波特.竞争战略:分析产业和竞争者的技巧.北京:华夏出版社,1997
[109]吴泗宗.市场营销学.北京:清华大学出版社,2005:29-33
[110]赵纯均.工商管理研究备要--现状、趋势和发展思路.北京:清华大学出版社,2004:316
[111]杰恩·巴尼.获得与保持竞争优势.北京:清华大学出版社,2003:140
[112]于立,吴绪亮.纵向限制的经济逻辑与反垄断政策.北京:中国工业经济2005,209(8):24-25
[113]中华人民共和国国土资源部国土资发[1999]104号.关于对稀土等(稀土、钨、锡、锑、煤、钼、重晶石、萤石)八种矿产暂停颁发采矿许可证的通知,1999-04-23
[114]中华人民共和国国土资源部国土资发[2005]200号.关于规范勘查许可证 采矿许可证权限有关问题的通知,2005-09-30
[115]中华人民共和国财政部,中华人民共和国国家税务总局财税[2005]168号.关于调整钼矿石等品目资源税政策的通知,2005-12-12
[116]中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会,中华人民共和国商务部令第13号.中西部地区外商投资优势产业目录(2004,修订),2004-07-23
[117]中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会,中华人民共和国商务部令第24号.外商投资产业指导目录,2004-11-30
[118]中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会,商务部令第57号.外商投资产业指导目录(2007,修订),2007-10-31
[119]中华人民共和国海关总署公告2007年第67号,2007-11-26
[120]中华人民共和国财政部,中华人民共和国国家税务总局财税[2003]222号.关于调整出口货物退税率的通知,2003-10-13
[121]中华人民共和国财政部,中华人民共和国国家税务总局财税[2005]75号.关于调整部分产品出口退税率的通知,2005-04-29
[122]中华人民共和国国务院关税税则委员会税委会(2007)8号.关于调整部分商品进出口暂定税率的通知,2007-05-18
[123]中华人民共和国海关总署公告2007年第22号,2007-05-30
[124]中华人民共和国商务部公告2007年第25号.铟,钼出口许可证申领标准和申报程序,2007-03-09
[125]中华人民共和国商务部公告2007年第47号,公布符合铟,钼出口许可证申领标准的企业名单,2007-05-23
[126]中华人民共和国商务部,中华人民共和国海关总署公告2007年第54号.实行出口配额许可证管理商品目录(铟,钼),2007-6-11
[127]中华人民共和国商务部办公厅,中华人民共和国海关总署办公厅商产字(2007)67号.关于2007年第54号公告有关加工贸易问题的补充通知,2007-08-02
[128]中华人民共和国商务部公告2007年第89号.铟,钼出口许可证申领补充标准和申报程序,2007-10-24
[129]中华人民共和国商务部公告2007年第107号.符合铟,钼出口许可证申领补充标准的出口企业名单,2007-12-18
[130]中华人民共和国商务部,中华人民共和国海关总署公告2007年第101号.2008,出口许可证管理货物目录,2007-12-29
[131]中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会公告2008年第13号附件一.铁合金行业准入条件(2008,修订),2008-02-04
[132]中华人民共和国商务部公告2008年第78号.关于2009年铟,钼出口企业,审标准和审核程序的公告,2008-10-09
[133]中华人民共和国商务部公告2008年第83号.2009年农产品和工业品出口配额总量,2008-10-10
[134]中华人民共和国商务部公告2008年第104号.符合2009年铟,钼出口许可证申领标准企业名单,2008-12-09
[135]辽政办发(2007)12号.辽宁省人民政府办公厅转发省经委等部门关于加强全省钼行业管理意见的通知,2007-3-8
[136]河南省人民政府豫政(2007)59号.河南省人民政府关于鼓励支持企业开发利用境外矿产资源的意见.2007-08-23
[137]河南省人民政府办公厅豫政办(2008)23号.河南省人民政府办公厅关于做好2008年企业上市工作的通知.2008-04-03
[138]王学民.应用概率统计.上海:上海财经大学出版社,2005
[139]William Greene,Econometric Analysis,Third Edition(Prentice Hall,1997.308-309
[140]孙敬水.计量经济学教程.北京:清华大学出版社,北京交通大学出版社,2005.51
[141]孙敬水.计量经济学.北京:清华大学出版社,2004.57-59
[142]Beveridge,S.,and C.R.Nelson,A New Approach to Decomposition of Economic Time Series into Permanent and Transitory Components with Particular Attention to Measurement of the Business Cycle,Journal of Monetary Economics,1981,7.151-174
[143]王升.计量经济学导论.北京:清华大学出版社,2006.144-145
[144]Box and Pierce,Distribution of Residual Autocorrelations in Auto regressive Integrated Moving Average Time Series Models,Journal of the American Statistical Association.1970,65.1509-1526
[145]Ljung,G.M.and Box,G.E.P..On a measure of lack of fit in time series models.Biometrika 1978,65.553-564
[146]S M Wu.Manufacturing Science and Technology for the 21st Century.International Academic Publishers,1994:288
[147]饶友玲.经管财金建模方法及应用.北京:清华大学出版社,2005.169
[148]约翰·Y·坎贝尔,安德鲁·W·罗,艾·克雷格·麦金雷.金融市场计量学.上海:上海财经大学出版社,2003.23-42
[149]Fuller,W.A.Introduction to statistical time series.Wiley,New York, 1976
[150]Dickey, D.A., Fuller, W.A., 1981, Likelihocd ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Econometrica 49(4). 1057-1072
[151]Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W.A. Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, J. American Statistical Assn. 1979, 74. 427-431
[152]Phillips, Peter C. B., and P. Perron. Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression, Biometrika, 1988,75(2). 335—346
[153]Phillips, Peter C. B., and P. Perron,Time Series Regression with a Unit Root. In Econometrica 1987,55. 277—302
[154]Durbin, J., and Watson, G. S., Testing for Serial Correlation in Least Squares Regression, I. Biometrika 1950, 37. 409-428
[155]Durbin, J., and Watson, G. S., Testing for Serial Correlation in Least Squares Regression, II. Biometrika 1951, 38. 159-179
[156]Akaike, Hirotsugu . A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 1974, 19(6). 716-723
[157]U. J. Schwarz, Mathematical-statistical description of the iterative beam removing technique (Method CLEAN), Astronomy and Astrophysics, 1978, 65. 345
[158]Kodde, David A & Palm, Franz C, Wald Criteria for Jointly Testing Equality and Inequality Restriction s, Econometrica, Econometric Society, 1986, 54(5). 1243—1248
[i59]李子奈.高等计量经济学.北京:清华大学出版社, 2000.331
[160]Newey WK & West KD . A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite,Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix. Econometrica, 1987, 55. 703—708
[161]Davidson, J. E. H., Hendry, D. F., Srba, F. and Yeo, J. S. Econometric Modeling of the Aggregate Time-series Relationship Between Consumer's Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom, Economic Journal, 1978, 88. 661-692
[162]Engle, R. F, and C. E. J. Grange. Cointegrated Economic Time Series:An Overview with New Results, in R. F. Engle and C. W. J. Ganger(eds), Lo ng-run Economic Relationships Oxford University Press,Oxford,1991.237-266
[163]张世英,樊智.协整理论与波动模型.北京:清华大学出版社.2004.86-87
[164]Dickey,D.A.and Fuller,W.A..Distributions of The Estimators For Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root,Journal of the American Statistical Association,1979,754.427-431
[165]Dickey,D.A.,Bell,W.R.and Miller,R.B..Unit Roots in Time Series Models:Tests and Implications,The American Statistician,1986,40.12-26
[166]Engle,R.F.and Granger,C.W.J..Co-integration and Error Correction:Representation,Estimation and Testing,Econometrica,1987,55.251-276
[167]Johansen,S.and Juselius,K..Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration -with application to the demand for money,Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,1990,52.169-210
[168]FISHER R.A.,A mathematical examination of the methods of determining the accuracy of an observation by the mean error,and by the mean square error,Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 80,1920.758-770.[reprinted as Paper 12 in Fisher,19743.[FISHER R.A.,The collected papers of R.A.Fisher(ed.J.H.Bennett),Adelaide,University of Adelaide Press,1974.
[169]罗伯特.S.平狄克,丹尼尔.L.鲁宾费尔德.计量经济模型与经济预测.北京:机械工业出版社,2006.53-55
[170]Granger,Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods,Econometrica,1969,37(3)
[171]Sargent,Thomas J.A Classical Macroeconometric Model for the United States,Journal of Political Economy,University of Chicago Press,1976,84(2).207-237
[172]Granger,,C.W.J.Testing for causality:A personal viewpoint,Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,Elsevier,1980,2(1).329-352
[173]Granger,Some recent developments in a concept of causality,Journal of Econometrics,1988,39
[174]Sims, Christopher A. Macroeconomics and Reality, Econometrica,Econometric Society, 1980.48(1). 1—48.
[175]Kincho H.Law, David R. Mackay, A parallel row-oriented sparse solution method for finite element structural analysis,International Journal for Numerical Methods in Engineering, 1993,36. 2896-2919
[176]Gill,P.E. Saunders, M. A.and Shinnerl, J. R., On the stability of Cholesky factorization for symmetric quasidefinite systems, SIAM J.Matrix Anal.Appl. 1996, 17
[177]赵金熙.对称不定矩阵的广义 Cho lesky分解法.计算数学,1996,18(4) : 442-448
[178]King, Rober., Plosser, C. I., Stock, J. H. and Watson, M.M. Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations, American Economic Review, 1991. 819—840
[179]Zhou, Su. The Response of Real Exchange Rates of Various Economic Shocks, Southern Economic Journal, 1996. 936—954
[180]Kydland, F. E., Prescott, E. C. Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review,1990.3-18
[181]David Romer, Advanced Macroeconomics. The McGraw-Nill Education, 2001. 169—170
[182]Brock W., J. Lakonishok, and B. LeBaron, Simple Technical Trading Rule and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Return, Journal of Finance, 1992, 41.1731-1764
[183]Bessembinder, H., K. Chan, The profitability of technical trading rules in the Asian. stock markets, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal,1995, 3.257-284
[184]Ito. Profits on technical trading rules and time-varying expected returns: Evidence from Pacific-Basin equity markets. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 1999, 7
[185]Fama, Eugene F. , Blume. Filter rules and stock market trading profits. Journal of Business 1966, 39
[186]Fama, Eugene F. Efficient capital markets:a review of theory and empirical work. Journal of Finance, 1970, 25.383—417.
[187]Fama,Eugene F.Efficient capital markets:Ⅱ.Journal of Finance 1991,46.383-420
[188]Fama,Eugene F.Market Efficiency,Long-Term Returns,and Behavioral Finance,Journal of Financial Economics,1997,49(3).283-306
[189]Fama,Eugene F.Market efficiency,long-term returns,and behavioral finance.Journal of Financial Economics,1998,49.307-343
[190]Robert F.Mulligan.Fractal analysis of highly volatile market s:an application to technology equities The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance.2004,44.155-179.
[191]何孝星.证券投资理论与实务.清华大学出版社.2004.55
[192]Mandelbort B.B.,Fractals:form,chance and dimension,San Francisco:Freeman,1977
[193]埃得加·E·彼得斯.资本市场的混沌与秩序.北京:经济科学出版社,1999
[194]樊智,张世英.金融市场的效率与分形市场理论.系统工程理论与实践,2002(3):13-20.
[195]埃得加·E·彼得斯.分形市场分析一将混沌理论应用到投资与经济理论上.北京:经济科学出版社,2002.59-62
[196]约翰.Y.坎贝尔、安德鲁·W.罗,艾·克雷格·麦金雷.金融市场计量学.上海:上海财经大学出版社,2003.23-42
[197]Hurst,H.E.,Long-term storage capacity of reservoirs,Transactions of American Society Civil Engineers,1951,116.770-808
[198]Mandelbrot,B.B.,Statistical methodology for non-periodic cycles:from the covariance to R/S analysis,Annals of Economic and Social Measurement,1972,1.257-288.
[199]Mandelbrot B B,Wallis J R.Noah,Joseph and Operational Hydrology.Water Resources Research,1968,4(5).909-918
[200]Mandelbrot,B.B..When Can Price Be ArbitragedEfficiently? A Limit to the Validity of the Random Walkand Martingale Models.Review of Economics and Statistics.1971,53.225-236
[201]Mandelbrot,B.B..Statistical Methodology for Non-Periodic Cycles:From the Covariance to R/S Analysis.Annals of Economic and Social Measurement 1972,1.259-290
[202]Mandelbrot,B.B..Limit Theorems on the Self-Normalized Range for Weakly and Strongly DependentProcesses.Z. Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie verw. gebiete31, 1975. 271-285
[203]Mandelbrot, B. B. and J. W. van Ness. FractionalBrownian motions,fractional noises and applications. SIAM Review , 1968, 4. 422—437
[204]Greene, M. and B. Fielitz. Long-term dependencein common stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics 1977, 4. 339-349
[205]Andrew W. Lo. Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices, Econometrica,1991, 59 (5). 1279-1313
[206]Liudas Giraitis, Piotr Kokoszka, Remigi jus Leipus, GillesTeyssiere,Rescaled variance and related tests for long memory in volatility and levels, Journal of Econometrics, 2003. 112. 265-294
[207]McLeod, A. I. & Hipel, K. W.. Preservation of the rescaled adjusted range, Part 1, A reassessment of the Hurst phenomenon, Water Resources Research 1978, 14. 491-508
[208]P. Brockwell., and R. Davis. Time Series: Theory and Methods. Second edition. New York: Springer-Verlag, 1991. Chapters 8 and 10
[209]Peters, E. E. Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets, New York, John Wiley and Sons, 1991
[210]Odean, Terrance. Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average. Journal of Finance, December 1998, 53(6).1887-1934
[211]Odean, Terrance. Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses? Journal of Finance, October 1998, 53(5). 1775—1798
[212]Benos, Alexandros V. Aggressiveness and Survival of Overconfident Traders. Journal of Financial Markets, 1998(1). 353—383
[213]Simon, Mark and Susan, Houghton, The Relationship Between Overconf idence and the Introduction of Risky Products: Evidence From A Field Study, Academy of Management Journal, 2003, 4 (2). 139—149
[214]Box G E P, Jenkins G M, Reinsel G C. Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. The third edition. NY: Prentice-Hall Inc. 1994
[215]Dervoot M V, Dougherty M, Watson S. Combining KOHOEN maps with ARIMA time series model to forecast traffic flow. Transportation Research,1996, 4(5). 307-318
[216]Box G E P, Jenkins G M. Time series anaylsis: orcasting and control: revised edition.San Francisco:Holden-Day,1976
[217]杨奕农.Box-Jenkins的ARMA模型.yaya.it.cycu.edu.tw台湾中原大学远距教育网站
[218]杨奕农.ARMA:报酬之预测.yaya.it.cycu.edu.tw台湾中原大学远距教育网站
[219]Rosenstein M T,Cohen P R.Concepts from time series.Fifteenth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence,Madison,Wisconsin,1998
[220]Das G,Lin K,Mannila H,et al.Rule discovery from time series.Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining,Madison,Wisconsin,1998
[221]Han J,Dong G,Yin Y.Efficient mining of partial periodic patterns in time series databases.Proceedings of the fifteenth International Conference on Data Engineering,Sydney,Australia,1999
[222]Mundlak,Y.,Empirical Productions Free of Management Bias,Journal of Farm Economics,1961(43),44-56
[223]Balestra,P.,and M.Nerlove Pooling Cross-Section and Time-Series Data in the Estimation of a Dynamic Economic Model:The Demand for Natural Gas,Econometric,1966(34),585-612
[224]Hsiao,C.,K.Lahiri,L.F.Lee and H.Pesaran,eds.,Analysis of Panel Data and Limited Dependent Variable Models,Cambridge University Press:Cambridge,1999
[225]Hsiao,Cheng,Analysis of Panel Data,Cambridge University Press,Second Edition,2002
[226]Klevmarken,N.Anders.Introduction,European Economic Review,Elsevier,1989,33(2-3),523-529
[227]王贵鹏.基于非平稳面板数据的生产函数估计.生产力研究 2007(04):24
[228]McConell,G.,S.Fabris,J.Proietto,and M.Hargreaves.Effect of carbohydrate ingestion on glucos(?) kinetics during exercise.J.Appl.Physiol.1989(77).1537-1541
[229]Pedroni,P.Panel Cointegration:Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled TimeSeries Tests With an Application to the PPP Hypothesis.Indiana University Working Papers In Economics,1995. 95-113
[230]周建,李子奈.Granger因果关系检验的适用性.清华大学学报:自然科学版,2004,44(3):358-361
[231]张晓峒,赵初晓.小样本杜宾-瓦尔特森统计量的分布特征.南开经济研究.1999(12):40-43
[232]张晓峒,大川勉,张世英.小样本DF统计量的分布特征.系统工程理论与实践.1999(3):31-37
[233]张本祥.非线性动力学的理论及应用.长春:吉林人民出版社,2001.23-25
[234]Granger C.Forecasting volatility in financial,markets:a reciew.Journal of Economic Literature,2003,41.478-539
[235]宋颂兴,金伟根.上海股市市场有效性实证研究.经济学家,1995(4)
[236]陈小悦,陈晓,顾斌.中国股市弱式效率的实证研究.会计研究,1997(9)
[237]李亚静,朱宏泉,彭育威.基于GARCH模型族的中国股市波动性预测.数学的实践与认识,2003,33(11):65-71
[238]郑周.基于不同分布假设GARCH模型对上证指数波动性预测能力的比较研究.价值工程,2004(3):70-72
[239]张亦春:周颖刚.中国股市弱式有效研究综述.当代财经.2001,201(8):30-32
[240]Chen,Y.T.On the Discrimination of Competing GARCH-type Models for Taiwan Stock Index Returns,Academia Economic Papers,2003,31.369-405
[241]Chen Y.T.Chou R.Y.and Kuan C.M.Testing for Time Reversibility without Moment Restrictions,Journal of Econometrics,2000,95.199-218
[242]徐龙炳.中国股票市场股票收益稳态特性的实证研究.金融研究.2001,6:36-43
[243]莫扬.股票市场波动性的国际比较研究.数量经济技术经济研究.2004,10:51-58
[244]Liu,L.,Rettenmaier,A.J.and Wang,Z.The Long-Run Relationship between Gross Domestic Product Growth and Stock Returns,Working Paper,Private Enterprise Research Center,Texas A&M University.2005