加工贸易促进湖南省经济增长的理论和实证分析
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摘要
随着改革开放的不断深入,十六届三中全会提出了“大力发展加工贸易,尽快促进加工贸易产业结构升级”的政策,2009年中国加工贸易总额达到10535.9亿美元,占到整个进出口总额的半壁江山。然而,由于加工贸易的附加值低,产生的利润微薄,经过经济学家的测算,它无论对国民经济总体增长还是对地区经济增长的贡献值都很小,甚至不到3%。在此背景下,湖南省由于地处中部内陆,政策上也不具备优势,与全国其他省份相比,其发展程度甚至远远低于平均水平,仅为1%左右。因此,分析近年来湖南的加工贸易对全省GDP的贡献度并分析成因,对于加速加工贸易的升级转型,构建加工贸易新格局从而促进湖南省经济发展具有重要意义。
本文以1999年—2009年湖南省的加工贸易为考察对象,首先与江苏省加工贸易的发展模式进行了对比分析,从四个方面得出了近年湖南加工贸易运行的特征,其次以比较优势理论、产业内贸易理论、产业聚集理论等理论为例,从不同角度对湖南省发展新型加工贸易进行了机理分析,而本文的重点则是选取了湖南省加工贸易的增值系数、加工贸易对湖南省GDP的贡献度和对加工贸易几个重要指标取对数后进行的OLS回归分析这三个考察对象,对加工贸易拉动湖南经济增长进行了实证分析,得出的结论是现有的加工贸易模式对经济增长的拉动度还很小,因此加速湖南加工贸易的转型升级,发展新型加工贸易具有现实意义。
最后在对湖南省目前的政策、功能、关税等方面进行了发展新型加工贸易的可行性分析的基础上,提出了相应的政策和建议。
With the development of the reform, It was put forward in third session of the 16th CPC Central Committee that‘re-enforcing development the processing trade, and promote the updating of the processing trade’s industrial structure’, in 2009, the total value of processing trade in China is 1053.59 billion US dollars. However, because of the low added value, through economists’estimate, the contribution share of processing trade to GDP is even less than 3%. Under this condition, the development in Hunan is below the national average level, only 1%. So, analyzing the contribution share of processing trade to GDP in Hunan Province and reason, is really does good to promote the updating of the processing trade and the adjustment of industrial structure.
This paper recognizes the processing trade of Hunan Province in 1999-2009 with target, first contrast analyzed the developing mode between Hunan Province and Jiangsu Province, then summarized the features of Hunan’s processing trade in recent years, second to take Comparative Advantages theory, Intra-industry Trade theory, industry cluster theory for example and from different angles analysis on built new processing trade in Hunan Province, the most important in this paper recognizes AV coefficient, contribution degree, incubated for total value of processing trade etc., then do regression analysis, therefore conclude that at present, the pulling degree of processing trade to Hunan Province is too low, it is very actual value to carry out the new processing trade in Hunan Province.
At last, proposed some ideas on policy from the Hunan’s policy, function, customs etc. aspect.
本文以1999年—2009年湖南省的加工贸易为考察对象,首先与江苏省加工贸易的发展模式进行了对比分析,从四个方面得出了近年湖南加工贸易运行的特征,其次以比较优势理论、产业内贸易理论、产业聚集理论等理论为例,从不同角度对湖南省发展新型加工贸易进行了机理分析,而本文的重点则是选取了湖南省加工贸易的增值系数、加工贸易对湖南省GDP的贡献度和对加工贸易几个重要指标取对数后进行的OLS回归分析这三个考察对象,对加工贸易拉动湖南经济增长进行了实证分析,得出的结论是现有的加工贸易模式对经济增长的拉动度还很小,因此加速湖南加工贸易的转型升级,发展新型加工贸易具有现实意义。
最后在对湖南省目前的政策、功能、关税等方面进行了发展新型加工贸易的可行性分析的基础上,提出了相应的政策和建议。
With the development of the reform, It was put forward in third session of the 16th CPC Central Committee that‘re-enforcing development the processing trade, and promote the updating of the processing trade’s industrial structure’, in 2009, the total value of processing trade in China is 1053.59 billion US dollars. However, because of the low added value, through economists’estimate, the contribution share of processing trade to GDP is even less than 3%. Under this condition, the development in Hunan is below the national average level, only 1%. So, analyzing the contribution share of processing trade to GDP in Hunan Province and reason, is really does good to promote the updating of the processing trade and the adjustment of industrial structure.
This paper recognizes the processing trade of Hunan Province in 1999-2009 with target, first contrast analyzed the developing mode between Hunan Province and Jiangsu Province, then summarized the features of Hunan’s processing trade in recent years, second to take Comparative Advantages theory, Intra-industry Trade theory, industry cluster theory for example and from different angles analysis on built new processing trade in Hunan Province, the most important in this paper recognizes AV coefficient, contribution degree, incubated for total value of processing trade etc., then do regression analysis, therefore conclude that at present, the pulling degree of processing trade to Hunan Province is too low, it is very actual value to carry out the new processing trade in Hunan Province.
At last, proposed some ideas on policy from the Hunan’s policy, function, customs etc. aspect.
引文
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[3]孙晓倩.我国加工贸易产业升级对策研究.中国学位论文http://www.jijinzu. com/jj/12/185585.htm,2010-8-30
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[5]秦岭.提高产业集聚效益走专业化生产道路[J]. http://www.issncn.com/ html/6478_1.htm,2010-5-24
[6]姚锋.原产地规则对加工贸易转型升级的影响初探[J].江苏对外经贸论坛, 2005,(04):54-56
[7]喻春娇,喻美辞.关于加工贸易的经济增长效应的再考察[J].北方经贸, 2005,(01)
[8]顾建清.中国加工贸易研究[M].上海:复旦大学出版社, 2008,35-37
[9]刘志忠,王耀中.加工贸易对我国经济增长作用的实证研究[J].财经理论与实践, 2003,(11):89-92
[10]兰勇.加工贸易对湖南省经济增长贡献的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2008,(4):56-59
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[17] Cukrowski Jacek and Aksen Emest.Perfect competition and intra-industry trade.Economics Letter, 2003, 78 (01):101-108
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[21] Yener Kandogan. Intra-industry trade of transition countries: trends anddet erm in ants[J].Emerging Markets Review,2003,(04):136-137
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[37] Castelló, A. & R. Doménech. Human Capital Inequality and Economic Growth: Some New Evidence[J]. The Economic Journal , 2002, 112 (478)
[38] Balassa B. Export and economic growth:Further evidence .Journal of Development Economics, 1978,(5):181-189
[39] TimothyT.Work,DeborahG.McCullough,JosephF.Cavey,Ronald Komsa. Arrival rate of nonindigenous insect species into the United States through foreign trade[J]. Biological Invasions, 2005,7(2):323-332
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[41] Alvarez,Eduado,Viney Couto and Chris Disher:Business Process Out-sourcing &Offshoring (Mclean,Virginia:Booz Allen Hamilton)[J]. 2003, 256-268
[42] Desiree van Welsum.In Seach of“Offshoring”:Evidence from US Imports of Services.Birbeck College,London.Http://www.ems.bbk.ac.uk/wp/PDF/BWPEF 0402. pdf
[43] Dossani and Kenny,2004,Went for cost,stayed for quality.
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[45] Grosse R.:International Technology Transfer in Services,Journal of International Business Studies Taylor,P.J.,Walker,D.R,1996
[46] Pooh, T. S. C.beyond the global production networks: a case of further upgrading of Taiwan's information technology industry.International Journal of Technology and Globalization.2004,1(1):130-145
[47] Sturgeon,T.J.How do We Define Value Chain and Production Networks[J]. IDS(Institute of Development Study University of Sussex)Bulletin, 2001,32(3):9-18
[48] Dunning, J.H.The eclectic paradigm of international production: a restatement and some possible extensions.Journal of International Business Studies.1981, 19
[49] Sturgeon T.How do we define value chains and production networks [Z][J].IDS (Institute of Development Study, University of Sussex )Bulletin,2002,(6):32
[50] Piore, M , Duran, R.Industrial development as a learning process: Mexican manufacturing and the opening to trade.Learning, Liberalization and Economics Adjustment[C].Tokyo:Institute of Developing Economics,1998,191-241
[51]湖南省商务厅www.hunancom.gov.cn
[52]小岛清[日].对外贸易论[M].天津:南开大学出版社,1987
[53]汪五一,徐妍妍.我国发展加工贸易的利弊分析及对策研究[J].安徽工业大学学报(社会科学版), 2007,(05) 34-39
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[57]吕伟红,胡东升,李莎.加工贸易[M].北京:中国海关出版社,1999,(6)
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[2]易雪玲.我国加工贸易转型升级的理论研究[J].湘潭大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2007,(02):36,37-38,38
[3]孙晓倩.我国加工贸易产业升级对策研究.中国学位论文http://www.jijinzu. com/jj/12/185585.htm,2010-8-30
[4]张娜,黄咏梅.我国区域经济梯度推移战略对安徽经济发展的影响分析[J].消费导刊,2008,(10)
[5]秦岭.提高产业集聚效益走专业化生产道路[J]. http://www.issncn.com/ html/6478_1.htm,2010-5-24
[6]姚锋.原产地规则对加工贸易转型升级的影响初探[J].江苏对外经贸论坛, 2005,(04):54-56
[7]喻春娇,喻美辞.关于加工贸易的经济增长效应的再考察[J].北方经贸, 2005,(01)
[8]顾建清.中国加工贸易研究[M].上海:复旦大学出版社, 2008,35-37
[9]刘志忠,王耀中.加工贸易对我国经济增长作用的实证研究[J].财经理论与实践, 2003,(11):89-92
[10]兰勇.加工贸易对湖南省经济增长贡献的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2008,(4):56-59
[11]刘晓宁.承接国际外包对我国的产业升级效用——基于制造业的分析[J].科技和产业, 2006,(12)
[12]孙楚仁等.加工贸易和其他贸易对经济增长贡献率的估计[J].世界经济研究, 2006,(03)
[13]王平.加工贸易发展中的原产地规则问题[J].财贸经济, 2004,(09)
[14] Daniel M. Bernhofen.Intra-industry trade and strategic interaction: Theory and Evidence[J].Journal of International Economics,1999,(47)
[15] Francoise Lemoine;Deniz UnalKesenci.China in the International Segmentation of Production Processes.CEPII Working Paper,No 2002-02, 2002
[16] Howard Chao;Lawrence Sussman;Vera Tong ;and Cindy Huang.Legal Aspects of OEM Manufacturing and Processing Trade in China[R].Topics in Chinese Law--An O‘melveny&myersllp research report, 2003
[17] Cukrowski Jacek and Aksen Emest.Perfect competition and intra-industry trade.Economics Letter, 2003, 78 (01):101-108
[18] Jayb Barney.Gaining and Sustaining Competitive Advantage [M]. America: South-Western College Publishing,1996,96-111
[19] Madani, Dorsati.A Review of the Role and Impact of EPZ.World Bank,1999
[20] Takayoshi Kusago; Zafiris Tzannatos.Export Processing Zones: A Review in Need of Update.Social Protection Discussion Paper No. 9802, 1998
[21] Yener Kandogan. Intra-industry trade of transition countries: trends anddet erm in ants[J].Emerging Markets Review,2003,(04):136-137
[22] Jayanthakumaran K.An overview of export Asian countries.University of Wollongong processing zones:selected Department of Economics working paper seriers, 2002,11
[23] Robert J Carbaugh.International economics. (6th). America: South-Western College Publishing,1998
[24] Castelló, A. & R. Doménech. Human Capital Inequality and Economic Growth: Some New Evidence[J]. The Economic Journal , 2002,112(478)
[25] Balassa B. Export and economic growth:Further evidence .Journal of Development Economics, 1978,(5):181-189
[26] TimothyT.Work,DeborahG.McCullough,JosephF.Cavey,Ronald Komsa. Arrival rate of nonindigenous insect species into the United States through foreign trade[J] Biological Invasions, 2005,7(2) :323-332
[27] Cukrowski Jacek and Aksen Emest. Perfect competition and intra-industry trade .Economics Letter, 2003,78(01):101-108
[28] Alvarez,Eduado,Viney Couto and Chris Disher:Business Process Out-sourcing & Offshoring (Mclean,Virginia:Booz Allen Hamilton)[J], 2003, 256-268
[29] Desiree van Welsum.In Seach of“Offshoring”:Evidence from US Imports of Services.Birbeck College,London.Http://www.ems.bbk.ac.uk/wp/PDF/BWPEF 0402.pdf
[30] Dossani and Kenny,2004,Went for cost,stayed for quality.OECD (2008b),OECD Economic Outlook,vol,2008/1,NO.75,JUNE, OECD,PARIS
[31] Grosse R.:International Technology Transfer in Services,Journal of International Business Studies Taylor,P.J.,Walker,D.R,1996
[32] Pooh, T. S. C.beyond the global production networks: a case of further upgrading of Taiwan's information technology industry.International Journal of Technology and Globalization.2004,1(1):130-145
[33] Sturgeon,T.J.How do We Define Value Chain and Production Networks[J]. IDS(Institute of Development Study University of Sussex)Bulletin, 2001,32(3):9-18
[34] Dunning, J.H.The eclectic paradigm of international production: a restatement and some possible extensions.Journal of International Business Studies,1981, 19
[35] Sturgeon T.How do we define value chains and production networks [Z][J].IDS (Institute of Development Study, University of Sussex )Bulletin,2002,(6):32
[36] Piore, M , Duran, R.Industrial development as a learning process: Mexican manufacturing and the opening to trade.Learning, Liberalization and Economics Adjustment[C].Tokyo:Institute of Developing Economics,1998, 191-241
[37] Castelló, A. & R. Doménech. Human Capital Inequality and Economic Growth: Some New Evidence[J]. The Economic Journal , 2002, 112 (478)
[38] Balassa B. Export and economic growth:Further evidence .Journal of Development Economics, 1978,(5):181-189
[39] TimothyT.Work,DeborahG.McCullough,JosephF.Cavey,Ronald Komsa. Arrival rate of nonindigenous insect species into the United States through foreign trade[J]. Biological Invasions, 2005,7(2):323-332
[40] Cukrowski Jacek and Aksen Emest. Perfect competition and intra-industry trade .Economics Letter, Volume 78, Issue 1, 2003,01(01):101-108
[41] Alvarez,Eduado,Viney Couto and Chris Disher:Business Process Out-sourcing &Offshoring (Mclean,Virginia:Booz Allen Hamilton)[J]. 2003, 256-268
[42] Desiree van Welsum.In Seach of“Offshoring”:Evidence from US Imports of Services.Birbeck College,London.Http://www.ems.bbk.ac.uk/wp/PDF/BWPEF 0402. pdf
[43] Dossani and Kenny,2004,Went for cost,stayed for quality.
[44] OECD (2008b),OECD Economic Outlook,vol,2008/1,NO.75,JUNE, OECD, PARIS.
[45] Grosse R.:International Technology Transfer in Services,Journal of International Business Studies Taylor,P.J.,Walker,D.R,1996
[46] Pooh, T. S. C.beyond the global production networks: a case of further upgrading of Taiwan's information technology industry.International Journal of Technology and Globalization.2004,1(1):130-145
[47] Sturgeon,T.J.How do We Define Value Chain and Production Networks[J]. IDS(Institute of Development Study University of Sussex)Bulletin, 2001,32(3):9-18
[48] Dunning, J.H.The eclectic paradigm of international production: a restatement and some possible extensions.Journal of International Business Studies.1981, 19
[49] Sturgeon T.How do we define value chains and production networks [Z][J].IDS (Institute of Development Study, University of Sussex )Bulletin,2002,(6):32
[50] Piore, M , Duran, R.Industrial development as a learning process: Mexican manufacturing and the opening to trade.Learning, Liberalization and Economics Adjustment[C].Tokyo:Institute of Developing Economics,1998,191-241
[51]湖南省商务厅www.hunancom.gov.cn
[52]小岛清[日].对外贸易论[M].天津:南开大学出版社,1987
[53]汪五一,徐妍妍.我国发展加工贸易的利弊分析及对策研究[J].安徽工业大学学报(社会科学版), 2007,(05) 34-39
[54]昝金淼,李辉.我国加工贸易向中西部地区转移的可行性分析[J].现代商业, 2009,(09) :250-254
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