电力系统规划厂网协调性评价研究
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摘要
电力系统规划中厂网协调性水平影响到系统的长期安全性和经济性,一直是电力系统评估的重要问题。随着电力市场化进程和国家能源政策的贯彻实施,厂网规划协调性问题更加突出。针对新形势下电力系统规划的不确定性、复杂性等特点,论文在分析了电网规划协调模式的基础上,首先建立了厂网规划协调性评价指标体系；其次,论文应用模糊层次分析综合评价法建立了厂网规划协调性评价模型,研究了厂网规划协调性定性与定量指标隶属度和权重设置的不同方法；再次,论文将信息熵权重和可拓权重应用到评价模型中,对比了主观权重和客观权重在协调性评价中的不同应用；最后,论文通过计算实例,对协调性评价体系的应用进行了分析,并对比了不同权重设置下的评价结果,证明了论文评价模型及不同权重设置方法具有一定的有效性和实用性。
The coordination of power plants and network planning has significant impact on the long-term safety and economy of the power system, thus has always been an important issue in power system assessment. With the development of the electricity marketing process and the execution of the national energy policy, the problem of the coordination of power plants and network planning has become increasingly conspicuous. In light of the uncertainty, complexity and other characteristics of power system planning under new situation, this paper firstly constructs a system of coordination evaluation index based on the analysis of various coordination modes. Secondly, we utilize fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to construct an evaluation model, and study different methods of determining the membership functions of qualitative and quantitative indicators, as well as the evaluation weights. Thereafter, apply Entropy Weight and Extension Weight to the evaluation model, and contrast the different applications of Subjective Weight and Objective Weight. Finally, the application of the coordination assessment system is analyzed with a numerical example, evaluate results obtained using different weights are compared, and the effectiveness and practicability of the evaluation model and approaches of setting weights are demonstrated.
The coordination of power plants and network planning has significant impact on the long-term safety and economy of the power system, thus has always been an important issue in power system assessment. With the development of the electricity marketing process and the execution of the national energy policy, the problem of the coordination of power plants and network planning has become increasingly conspicuous. In light of the uncertainty, complexity and other characteristics of power system planning under new situation, this paper firstly constructs a system of coordination evaluation index based on the analysis of various coordination modes. Secondly, we utilize fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to construct an evaluation model, and study different methods of determining the membership functions of qualitative and quantitative indicators, as well as the evaluation weights. Thereafter, apply Entropy Weight and Extension Weight to the evaluation model, and contrast the different applications of Subjective Weight and Objective Weight. Finally, the application of the coordination assessment system is analyzed with a numerical example, evaluate results obtained using different weights are compared, and the effectiveness and practicability of the evaluation model and approaches of setting weights are demonstrated.
引文
[1]高赐威.程浩忠.电力市场环境下电网规划的若干问题研究.华东电力,2005,33(3)
[2]朱成章.美国加州电力危机和美加大停电对世界电力的影响.中国电力,2003,36(11)：1-6
[3]陈向宜,陈允平,李春艳,等.构建大电网安全防御体系—欧洲大停电事故的分析及思考.电力系统自动化,2007,31(1)：4-8
[4]国家电力调度中心.电网典型事故分析(1999～2007).北京：中国电力出版社,2008
[5]System Disturbance Stability Studies for WSCC. EPRI Final Report EPRITR-108256, 1997.
[6]Makansi J. California's Electricity Crisis Rooted in Many Failings IEEE Spectrum,2001, 38(3)
[7]吉兴全,文福拴.电力市场环境下发电和输电规划协调问题综述.电力技术经济,2008,20(3)：18-23
[8]K. Keller, J. Wild. Long-term Investment in Electricity:a Trade-off between Co-ordination and Competition[J]. Utilities Policy,2004,12(4):243-251
[9]韩帧祥,黄民翔,薛禹胜.2002年国际大电网会议系列报道.电力系统自动化,2003,27(10)： 8-10
[10]C. Genesi, P. Marannino, S. Rossi, et al. Power Flow Based Indices for the Coordination of Transmission and Generation System Planning.2009 IEEE Bucharest Tech Conference, June 28th-July2nd, Bucharest, Romania
[11]Jae Hyung Roh, Mohammad Shahidehpour, Yong Fu. Market-Based Coordination of Transmission and Generation Capacity Planning. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,2007, 22 (4):1406-1419
[12]周安石.基于市场机制的电力系统规划理论研究：[博士学位论文].北京：清华大学,2005.
[13]曾庆禹.电力市场条件下的发输电规划协调与运行模式.电力系统自动化,2004,28(5)： 1-5
[14]E E Sauma, S S Oren. Proactive Transmission Investment in Competitive Power Systems. IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting,2006
[15]E E Sauma, S S Oren. Economic Criteria for Planning Transmission Investment in Restructured Electricity Markets. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2007,22(4): 1394-1405
[16]张午阳,姚建刚,周媛,等.一种新的促进厂网规划协调的整体框架与模型.电网技术,2006,30(1)：50-54
[17]姚鹏,肖辉耀,院晓涛,等.一种考虑厂网协调规划的输电阻塞治理模式.广东电力,2008,21(4)：1-4
[18]张焰.电网规划中的模糊可靠性评估方法.中国电机工程学报,2000,20(11)：77-80
[19]聂宏展,吕盼,乔怡,等.基于熵权法的输电网规划方案模糊综合评价.电网技术,2009,33(11)：60-64
[20]何永秀,王巍,杨卫红,等.基于盲数理论的配电网接线方式评价.电工技术学报,2009,24(7)：139-144
[21]刘铠滢,蔡述涛,刘尧.基于风险评判的电网规划方法.中国电机工程学报,2007,27(22)： 69-73
[22]张午阳,姚建刚,周媛,等.电力市场条件下的电网接入模式.电力系统自动化,2005,29(18)：7-12
[23]熊德平.农村金融与农村经济协调发展研究.北京：社会科学文献出版社,2009：81-86
[24]魏志恒.市场条件下电源和电网规划协调问题的研究：[硕士学位论文].北京：华北电力大学,2006
[25]田村康南.电力系统规划与运行(,提兆旭,曹长征).北京：科学出版社,1997：47-58
[26]徐长义.水电项目协调开发模式与综合评价研究[博士学位论文].天津：天津大学,2006
[27]刘敦楠,陈雪青,何光宇,等.电力市场评价指标体系的原理和构建方法.电力系统自动化,2005,29(23)：2-7
[28]白凤春,姜忠元.电力规划环境评价专题设置探讨.环境保护,2003,(9)：36-39
[29]周概容.统计学原理.天津：南开大学出版社,1999
[30]崔艳研.电网规划综合评价方法研究与应用[硕士学位论文].天津：天津大学,2008
[31]李萍,龚乐年,宋艳敏.电力市场发电容量充裕度分析系统设计.电力系统自动化,2006,30(13)：47-50
[32]李韩房.中国电力市场绩效评价指标体系及评价模型研究[博士学位论文].北京：华北电力大学,2008
[33]陈衍泰,陈国宏,李美娟.综合评价方法分类及研究进展.管理科学学报,2004,7(2)： 69-79
[34]胡宝清.模糊理论基础.武汉：武汉大学出版社,2004
[35]曹炳元.应用模糊数学与系统.北京：科学出版社,2005
[36]张凯.变电构架可靠性模糊综合评判研究[硕士学位论文].郑州：郑州大学,2003
[37]张荣雨.基于安全检测的海塘综合评判隶属度和权值的研究[硕士学位论文].上海：上海交通大学,2008
[38]王泽一.城市电网规划技术经济指标的评价研究[硕士学位论文].北京：华北电力大学,2004
[39]http://wiki.mbalib.com/wiki/%E5%BE%B7%E5%B0%94%E8%8F%B2%E6%B3%95(MBA智库百科)
[40]赵炜炜,张建华,尚敬福,等.电网大面积停电应急评价指标体系及其应用.电力系统自动化,2008,32(20)：27-31
[41]张文修,吴伟志,梁吉业,等.粗糙集理论与方法.北京：科学出版社,2001
[42]曹谢东.模糊信息处理及应用.北京：科学出版社,2003
[43]蔡文.可拓论及其应用.科学通报,1999,44(7)：673-682
[44]胡宝清.可拓评价方法在围岩稳定性分类中的应用.水利学报,2000,(2)：66-70
[45]胡宝清,张轩,卢兆明.可拓评价方法的改进及其应用研究.武汉大学学报(工学版),2003,36(5)：79-84
[46]齐福荣,李忠,武强.可拓评价方法的改进及其应用研究.计算机工程和应用,2009,45(30)：211-213
[2]朱成章.美国加州电力危机和美加大停电对世界电力的影响.中国电力,2003,36(11)：1-6
[3]陈向宜,陈允平,李春艳,等.构建大电网安全防御体系—欧洲大停电事故的分析及思考.电力系统自动化,2007,31(1)：4-8
[4]国家电力调度中心.电网典型事故分析(1999～2007).北京：中国电力出版社,2008
[5]System Disturbance Stability Studies for WSCC. EPRI Final Report EPRITR-108256, 1997.
[6]Makansi J. California's Electricity Crisis Rooted in Many Failings IEEE Spectrum,2001, 38(3)
[7]吉兴全,文福拴.电力市场环境下发电和输电规划协调问题综述.电力技术经济,2008,20(3)：18-23
[8]K. Keller, J. Wild. Long-term Investment in Electricity:a Trade-off between Co-ordination and Competition[J]. Utilities Policy,2004,12(4):243-251
[9]韩帧祥,黄民翔,薛禹胜.2002年国际大电网会议系列报道.电力系统自动化,2003,27(10)： 8-10
[10]C. Genesi, P. Marannino, S. Rossi, et al. Power Flow Based Indices for the Coordination of Transmission and Generation System Planning.2009 IEEE Bucharest Tech Conference, June 28th-July2nd, Bucharest, Romania
[11]Jae Hyung Roh, Mohammad Shahidehpour, Yong Fu. Market-Based Coordination of Transmission and Generation Capacity Planning. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,2007, 22 (4):1406-1419
[12]周安石.基于市场机制的电力系统规划理论研究：[博士学位论文].北京：清华大学,2005.
[13]曾庆禹.电力市场条件下的发输电规划协调与运行模式.电力系统自动化,2004,28(5)： 1-5
[14]E E Sauma, S S Oren. Proactive Transmission Investment in Competitive Power Systems. IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting,2006
[15]E E Sauma, S S Oren. Economic Criteria for Planning Transmission Investment in Restructured Electricity Markets. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2007,22(4): 1394-1405
[16]张午阳,姚建刚,周媛,等.一种新的促进厂网规划协调的整体框架与模型.电网技术,2006,30(1)：50-54
[17]姚鹏,肖辉耀,院晓涛,等.一种考虑厂网协调规划的输电阻塞治理模式.广东电力,2008,21(4)：1-4
[18]张焰.电网规划中的模糊可靠性评估方法.中国电机工程学报,2000,20(11)：77-80
[19]聂宏展,吕盼,乔怡,等.基于熵权法的输电网规划方案模糊综合评价.电网技术,2009,33(11)：60-64
[20]何永秀,王巍,杨卫红,等.基于盲数理论的配电网接线方式评价.电工技术学报,2009,24(7)：139-144
[21]刘铠滢,蔡述涛,刘尧.基于风险评判的电网规划方法.中国电机工程学报,2007,27(22)： 69-73
[22]张午阳,姚建刚,周媛,等.电力市场条件下的电网接入模式.电力系统自动化,2005,29(18)：7-12
[23]熊德平.农村金融与农村经济协调发展研究.北京：社会科学文献出版社,2009：81-86
[24]魏志恒.市场条件下电源和电网规划协调问题的研究：[硕士学位论文].北京：华北电力大学,2006
[25]田村康南.电力系统规划与运行(,提兆旭,曹长征).北京：科学出版社,1997：47-58
[26]徐长义.水电项目协调开发模式与综合评价研究[博士学位论文].天津：天津大学,2006
[27]刘敦楠,陈雪青,何光宇,等.电力市场评价指标体系的原理和构建方法.电力系统自动化,2005,29(23)：2-7
[28]白凤春,姜忠元.电力规划环境评价专题设置探讨.环境保护,2003,(9)：36-39
[29]周概容.统计学原理.天津：南开大学出版社,1999
[30]崔艳研.电网规划综合评价方法研究与应用[硕士学位论文].天津：天津大学,2008
[31]李萍,龚乐年,宋艳敏.电力市场发电容量充裕度分析系统设计.电力系统自动化,2006,30(13)：47-50
[32]李韩房.中国电力市场绩效评价指标体系及评价模型研究[博士学位论文].北京：华北电力大学,2008
[33]陈衍泰,陈国宏,李美娟.综合评价方法分类及研究进展.管理科学学报,2004,7(2)： 69-79
[34]胡宝清.模糊理论基础.武汉：武汉大学出版社,2004
[35]曹炳元.应用模糊数学与系统.北京：科学出版社,2005
[36]张凯.变电构架可靠性模糊综合评判研究[硕士学位论文].郑州：郑州大学,2003
[37]张荣雨.基于安全检测的海塘综合评判隶属度和权值的研究[硕士学位论文].上海：上海交通大学,2008
[38]王泽一.城市电网规划技术经济指标的评价研究[硕士学位论文].北京：华北电力大学,2004
[39]http://wiki.mbalib.com/wiki/%E5%BE%B7%E5%B0%94%E8%8F%B2%E6%B3%95(MBA智库百科)
[40]赵炜炜,张建华,尚敬福,等.电网大面积停电应急评价指标体系及其应用.电力系统自动化,2008,32(20)：27-31
[41]张文修,吴伟志,梁吉业,等.粗糙集理论与方法.北京：科学出版社,2001
[42]曹谢东.模糊信息处理及应用.北京：科学出版社,2003
[43]蔡文.可拓论及其应用.科学通报,1999,44(7)：673-682
[44]胡宝清.可拓评价方法在围岩稳定性分类中的应用.水利学报,2000,(2)：66-70
[45]胡宝清,张轩,卢兆明.可拓评价方法的改进及其应用研究.武汉大学学报(工学版),2003,36(5)：79-84
[46]齐福荣,李忠,武强.可拓评价方法的改进及其应用研究.计算机工程和应用,2009,45(30)：211-213