喀斯特流域水文时间序列的多时间尺度研究
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摘要
水资源是人类生存与发展最宝贵的基础性自然资源,同时又是国民经济与社会发展的战略性自然资源。水资源短缺和生态环境恶化已经成为喀斯特流域所面临的严重问题。喀斯特流域可溶性的双重含水介质、独特的水文地貌结构及其产生的功能效应,使得其水系发育、水文动态上表现出与非喀斯特流域的巨大差异。水文过程是受地理、气候、环境、人类活动等等因素综合作用的结果,是复杂的动态过程,水文时间序列表现出高度非线性和多时间尺度特性,包含确定成分和随机成分。尺度问题,是水文水资源领域一个热点问题。研究喀斯特地区水文时间序列的多时间尺度问题,可以加强对水文尺度变化规律的认识,指导水资源的合理开发利用,协调人口、资源、环境和经济的持续发展。
本文采用统计学、小波理论、频谱分析等方法,对喀斯特流域水文时间序列的多时间尺度问题进行了研究。主要研究成果和结论如下:
(1)本研究以典型的喀斯特地区湘江流域为例,采用Morlet小波,对年径流量时间序列进行了多时间尺度分析,获得了周期性规律。年径流时间序列存在26a时间尺度的主周期变化,同时还存在7a时间尺度的次周期变化,在这两种时间尺度下,径流演变呈现出较明显的丰、枯交替振荡。
(2)利用滑动平均法和频谱分析方法对水文序列进行多时间尺度研究,各种分析方法的结果基本一致,也进一步说明小波理论所分析的湘江流域年径流量周期是可靠的。
(3)从气候、人类活动方面重点分析了喀斯特流域年径流序列演变的原因,并探讨其未来演变趋势。发现年径流量变化主要受年平均降水量的影响;人类活动的各种影响,总体上会使径流量略有增加。依据《气候变化国家评估报告》,未来贵州省喀斯特流域年径流量很可能呈增加趋势。
The water resources is the most precious foundational natural resources, is the strategic natural resource which the national economy and the society develops at the same time. Shortage of water resources and eco-environment degradation were the serious situation in karst drainage basins. There are doublely soluble aquifer media, unique hydro-geomorphological structure and the functional effects in karst drainage basins, whitch lead to a huge difference from non-karst drainage basins about the water system development and the hydrological dynamic. Hydrological process is a complex dynamic process, because it is affected by geography, climate, environment, human activities and so on. Hydrological time series demonstrated highly nonlinear and multiple time scales features, including identify and random compositions. Scale is a hot issue in the field of hydrology and water resources. Using the research of multiple time scales of hydrological time series in karst areas, we can enhanced the understanding of the laws on hydrological scale changes, guide the rational development and utilization of water resources, coordinate sustainable development including population, resources, environment and economy.
In this article, using statistics, wavelet theory, spectrum analysis method, the multiple time scales of hydrological time series in karst drainage basins are studied. Main research results and conclusions are as follows:
(1)In this study, taking the typical karst areas Xiangjiang River Basin as an example, using Morlet wavelet, the multiple time scales of the annual runoff time series analysed, the cyclical regularity is abtained. The annual flow time series has a mainly time scale cycle, which is 26 years. There is also a secondary time scale cycle of 7 years. At the two scales, runoff evolution shows obviously oscillation of rain and draught.
(2)The multiple time scales of hydrological series are studied through the sliding average method and spectral analysis, different analysis methods have basically the same results, whitch shows that runoff cycle of the Xiangjiang River basin analysed with the wavelet theory is reliable.
(3)The reasons of the evolution of annual runoff series are importantly analysed about the climate and human activities in karst drainage Basins, and the trend of their evolution in the future is discussed. The results show that the runoff changes are mainly affected by the average annual precipitation, the overall runoff will increase slightly on the various impacts of the human activities. Based on the "National Climate Change Assessment Report", the annual runoff will be likely to increase in karst drainage basins in Guizhou Province.
本文采用统计学、小波理论、频谱分析等方法,对喀斯特流域水文时间序列的多时间尺度问题进行了研究。主要研究成果和结论如下:
(1)本研究以典型的喀斯特地区湘江流域为例,采用Morlet小波,对年径流量时间序列进行了多时间尺度分析,获得了周期性规律。年径流时间序列存在26a时间尺度的主周期变化,同时还存在7a时间尺度的次周期变化,在这两种时间尺度下,径流演变呈现出较明显的丰、枯交替振荡。
(2)利用滑动平均法和频谱分析方法对水文序列进行多时间尺度研究,各种分析方法的结果基本一致,也进一步说明小波理论所分析的湘江流域年径流量周期是可靠的。
(3)从气候、人类活动方面重点分析了喀斯特流域年径流序列演变的原因,并探讨其未来演变趋势。发现年径流量变化主要受年平均降水量的影响;人类活动的各种影响,总体上会使径流量略有增加。依据《气候变化国家评估报告》,未来贵州省喀斯特流域年径流量很可能呈增加趋势。
The water resources is the most precious foundational natural resources, is the strategic natural resource which the national economy and the society develops at the same time. Shortage of water resources and eco-environment degradation were the serious situation in karst drainage basins. There are doublely soluble aquifer media, unique hydro-geomorphological structure and the functional effects in karst drainage basins, whitch lead to a huge difference from non-karst drainage basins about the water system development and the hydrological dynamic. Hydrological process is a complex dynamic process, because it is affected by geography, climate, environment, human activities and so on. Hydrological time series demonstrated highly nonlinear and multiple time scales features, including identify and random compositions. Scale is a hot issue in the field of hydrology and water resources. Using the research of multiple time scales of hydrological time series in karst areas, we can enhanced the understanding of the laws on hydrological scale changes, guide the rational development and utilization of water resources, coordinate sustainable development including population, resources, environment and economy.
In this article, using statistics, wavelet theory, spectrum analysis method, the multiple time scales of hydrological time series in karst drainage basins are studied. Main research results and conclusions are as follows:
(1)In this study, taking the typical karst areas Xiangjiang River Basin as an example, using Morlet wavelet, the multiple time scales of the annual runoff time series analysed, the cyclical regularity is abtained. The annual flow time series has a mainly time scale cycle, which is 26 years. There is also a secondary time scale cycle of 7 years. At the two scales, runoff evolution shows obviously oscillation of rain and draught.
(2)The multiple time scales of hydrological series are studied through the sliding average method and spectral analysis, different analysis methods have basically the same results, whitch shows that runoff cycle of the Xiangjiang River basin analysed with the wavelet theory is reliable.
(3)The reasons of the evolution of annual runoff series are importantly analysed about the climate and human activities in karst drainage Basins, and the trend of their evolution in the future is discussed. The results show that the runoff changes are mainly affected by the average annual precipitation, the overall runoff will increase slightly on the various impacts of the human activities. Based on the "National Climate Change Assessment Report", the annual runoff will be likely to increase in karst drainage basins in Guizhou Province.
引文
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