服务业外商直接投资影响因素的实证分析
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摘要
近年来,随着经济全球化和投资自由化的发展,全球产业结构调整的步伐不断加快,各国逐渐放松了对服务行业的管制并大力发展,使其成为国民经济的重心,致使国际产业结构出现了整体向服务业偏移的现象。如今,服务业已超过制造业成为了外商直接投资的重点。
许多国内外的研究成果显示,服务业利用外资水平对服务业的增长有积极的推动作用。虽然我国服务业发展起步较晚,目前尚处于初级阶段,但我国服务业发展较快,有很大的上升空间。因此应抓住这次新一轮国际产业结构调整的契机,积极吸收并充分利用服务业的FDI,以优化产业结构,促进经济发展。山东省作为中国的第二经济大省,虽然它的农业和工业发展迅猛,但其服务业的发展却低于全国平均水平,尤其是服务业吸引外资的水平与国内先进省份相比尚存在着较大的差距。因此,研究山东省服务业利用FDI的影响因素,探究切实可行的引资方法,对于山东省优化产业结构,促进经济增长具有重大的现实意义。
本文选取1989—2008年时间段的数据对山东省服务业利用外资的影响因素进行研究。在构建了理论框架的基础上运用计量方法对选取的影响因素进行实证检验,并得到综合影响因子和单个因子对服务业FDI有不同的影响,变量在短期和长期中对服务业利用外资也有不同影响的结果。
本文共分为五大部分。
第一部分是导论,主要叙述了问题提出的背景与意义,基本思路、框架结构和主要观点,论文的创新之处以及写作难点。
第二部分是服务业对外直接投资的文献综述。首先从发达国家和发展中国家两个角度来阐述了服务业FDI的理论,然后对服务业FDI影响因素的文献进行了回顾,在回顾了以国家层面和中国省际层面为研究对象的服务业相关文献后,对服务业外商直接投资的影响因素进行了归类总结。
第三部分是服务业相关概念界定及山东省服务业利用外资状况。首先阐明了服务业的涵义,明确在本文中所指的服务业的涵盖范围。其次对山东省服务业利用外资的现状进行了分析,找出山东省与国内其他省份存在的差距。
第四部分是山东省服务业吸引FDI影响因素分析。一是理论分析,在原有理论的基础上,构建了包括经济发展因素、成本因素和政策因素三方面的理论框架对山东省的情况进行分析；二是实证分析,分别运用主成分分析法,单位根检验,协整检验,格兰杰因果检验和误差修正模型等一系列计量方法找出了影响山东省服务业吸引FDI的主要因素。最后得出如下结论：基础设施水平、人力资源状况及服务业集聚程度与服务业外商直接投资成正向依存关系,而第二产业发展潜力和政府的作用对服务业利用FDI的影响为负。
第五部分是针对如何提高山东省服务业引资水平,优化产业结构而提出相应的解决措施和政策建议。
In resent years, with the globalization of economy and the liberalization of investment, the pace of the global industrial restructuring has been sped up. Countries gradually relax the control of the service sector, vigorously develop it and make it became the main body of the national economy, which causes the world industry shifting to the service sector. Nowadays, the service sector weights more than manufacturing and becomes the focus of the foreign direct investment.
Many home and abroad researches show that the level of FDI utilization of service industry has a positive effect on the development of Services. Although the service sector of China has a late start and is still at the initial stage now, it develops rapidly and has a large increasing space. So China should seize the opportunity of international industrial restructuring, actively absorb and make full use of FDI in Services to stimulate the growth of the economy. Shandong province, as the second economic province, has a rapid development in agriculture and manufacturing, but the level of its service industry belows the average of the nation. Especially its FDI level of Services, has a large gap with other domestic provinces. Therefore, it's significant to study on the determinants of FDI in Shandong's Services and do research on the efficient methods of attracting more FDI in order to improve Shandong's industrial structure and promote economy.
The data is from 1989 to 2008. Based on the theoretical framework, we get the empirical results that integrated factors as well as individual factors have different influence on FDI utilization of Services, and this also happens according to different length of time.
This thesis consists of five parts.
The fist part is the introductory remarks. It elaborates the background and significance of the issue, basic ideas, framework structure, main views and the innovations as well as writing difficulties.
The second part firstly illuminates the theories of Services'FDI from developed as well as developing countries respectively, and then do the review of the literatures about determinants of service industry FDI from national side and provincial side. Finally, it summarizes the determinants of FDI in service industry.
The third part explains the meaning of Services and defines the scope that service sector covers in this article. It analyzes status quo of FDI utilization in Shandong Services and identifies the gap among Shandong province and other domestic provinces.
The forth part is the analysis of the determinants of FDI in Shandong service sector. Firstly, this part builds a theory framework which consists of economy factor, cost factor, and policy factor. Secondly, it uses several empirical methods to test the main factors which influence FDI in Shandong Services. Finally, we get the result that infrastructure, human resources and the agglomeration of Services have a positive effect on FDI in Services, while the potential of industry and government factor have a negative correlation with FDI in service sector.
The fifth part gives some policy suggestions and countermeasures on how to enhance the level of attracting FDI for Shandong service industry.
许多国内外的研究成果显示,服务业利用外资水平对服务业的增长有积极的推动作用。虽然我国服务业发展起步较晚,目前尚处于初级阶段,但我国服务业发展较快,有很大的上升空间。因此应抓住这次新一轮国际产业结构调整的契机,积极吸收并充分利用服务业的FDI,以优化产业结构,促进经济发展。山东省作为中国的第二经济大省,虽然它的农业和工业发展迅猛,但其服务业的发展却低于全国平均水平,尤其是服务业吸引外资的水平与国内先进省份相比尚存在着较大的差距。因此,研究山东省服务业利用FDI的影响因素,探究切实可行的引资方法,对于山东省优化产业结构,促进经济增长具有重大的现实意义。
本文选取1989—2008年时间段的数据对山东省服务业利用外资的影响因素进行研究。在构建了理论框架的基础上运用计量方法对选取的影响因素进行实证检验,并得到综合影响因子和单个因子对服务业FDI有不同的影响,变量在短期和长期中对服务业利用外资也有不同影响的结果。
本文共分为五大部分。
第一部分是导论,主要叙述了问题提出的背景与意义,基本思路、框架结构和主要观点,论文的创新之处以及写作难点。
第二部分是服务业对外直接投资的文献综述。首先从发达国家和发展中国家两个角度来阐述了服务业FDI的理论,然后对服务业FDI影响因素的文献进行了回顾,在回顾了以国家层面和中国省际层面为研究对象的服务业相关文献后,对服务业外商直接投资的影响因素进行了归类总结。
第三部分是服务业相关概念界定及山东省服务业利用外资状况。首先阐明了服务业的涵义,明确在本文中所指的服务业的涵盖范围。其次对山东省服务业利用外资的现状进行了分析,找出山东省与国内其他省份存在的差距。
第四部分是山东省服务业吸引FDI影响因素分析。一是理论分析,在原有理论的基础上,构建了包括经济发展因素、成本因素和政策因素三方面的理论框架对山东省的情况进行分析；二是实证分析,分别运用主成分分析法,单位根检验,协整检验,格兰杰因果检验和误差修正模型等一系列计量方法找出了影响山东省服务业吸引FDI的主要因素。最后得出如下结论：基础设施水平、人力资源状况及服务业集聚程度与服务业外商直接投资成正向依存关系,而第二产业发展潜力和政府的作用对服务业利用FDI的影响为负。
第五部分是针对如何提高山东省服务业引资水平,优化产业结构而提出相应的解决措施和政策建议。
In resent years, with the globalization of economy and the liberalization of investment, the pace of the global industrial restructuring has been sped up. Countries gradually relax the control of the service sector, vigorously develop it and make it became the main body of the national economy, which causes the world industry shifting to the service sector. Nowadays, the service sector weights more than manufacturing and becomes the focus of the foreign direct investment.
Many home and abroad researches show that the level of FDI utilization of service industry has a positive effect on the development of Services. Although the service sector of China has a late start and is still at the initial stage now, it develops rapidly and has a large increasing space. So China should seize the opportunity of international industrial restructuring, actively absorb and make full use of FDI in Services to stimulate the growth of the economy. Shandong province, as the second economic province, has a rapid development in agriculture and manufacturing, but the level of its service industry belows the average of the nation. Especially its FDI level of Services, has a large gap with other domestic provinces. Therefore, it's significant to study on the determinants of FDI in Shandong's Services and do research on the efficient methods of attracting more FDI in order to improve Shandong's industrial structure and promote economy.
The data is from 1989 to 2008. Based on the theoretical framework, we get the empirical results that integrated factors as well as individual factors have different influence on FDI utilization of Services, and this also happens according to different length of time.
This thesis consists of five parts.
The fist part is the introductory remarks. It elaborates the background and significance of the issue, basic ideas, framework structure, main views and the innovations as well as writing difficulties.
The second part firstly illuminates the theories of Services'FDI from developed as well as developing countries respectively, and then do the review of the literatures about determinants of service industry FDI from national side and provincial side. Finally, it summarizes the determinants of FDI in service industry.
The third part explains the meaning of Services and defines the scope that service sector covers in this article. It analyzes status quo of FDI utilization in Shandong Services and identifies the gap among Shandong province and other domestic provinces.
The forth part is the analysis of the determinants of FDI in Shandong service sector. Firstly, this part builds a theory framework which consists of economy factor, cost factor, and policy factor. Secondly, it uses several empirical methods to test the main factors which influence FDI in Shandong Services. Finally, we get the result that infrastructure, human resources and the agglomeration of Services have a positive effect on FDI in Services, while the potential of industry and government factor have a negative correlation with FDI in service sector.
The fifth part gives some policy suggestions and countermeasures on how to enhance the level of attracting FDI for Shandong service industry.
引文
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