人民币汇率变动对中美贸易失衡影响问题的实证研究
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摘要
近年来，中美贸易失衡问题已成为影响中美关系发展最主要的因素之一，而人民币汇率是否作为中美贸易失衡的主要原因则更为学术界关注。迫于美国等发达国家的政治压力和经济手段，中国人民币汇率已持续8年连续升值，这种提供稳定升值预期的汇率变动是否真正能够解决中美贸易失衡问题更成为现阶段经济学研究中最受关注的问题。因此，对人民币汇率升值是否真正能够缓解中美贸易失衡问题，以及人民币升值对中美两国经济的实质性影响进行研究具有重要的现实和理论意义。
为从更深层次揭示人民币汇率升值与中美贸易以及中美经济之间的关系，本文从以下几个方面对该问题进行实证研究：其一，美国对华政治态度变化是否真正影响人民币汇率制度改革或对人民币升值是否存在因果关系。若存在必然联系甚至存在因果则证明人民币汇率对中美经济关系至关重要，已在某种程度上成为解决中美关系的桥梁；其二，人民币升值是否能够缓解或者解决中美贸易失衡问题。贸易失衡不利于任何国家的长久发展，必将损害国家利益。若人民币升值能够缓解或解决中美贸易失衡问题则应选择合理的升值途径；其三，人民币升值是否影响中国对外贸易发展。对外贸易是拉动中国经济增长的主要动力，选择合理的汇率升值方式对中国经济发展关系重大；其四，人民币升值与美国经济发展之间的关系。尽管中美贸易相互依存度较高，但人民币汇率变动是否对美国实体经济产生直接影响值得商榷。经过严谨的规范研究和实证分析，本文发现美国长期通过政治压力影响中国汇率，人民币汇率已经成为中美双边关系中重要谈判内容之一，但中美双边贸易不符合马歇尔勒纳条件，人民币升值在解决中美贸易失衡问题方面作用不显著。同时，中国作为贸易大国，人民币升值不利于中国对外贸易的长期发展，而且以美国劳动力就业为例进行分析后发现，人民币升值也不能解决美国就业问题。
中美贸易失衡有自身的内部原因，是国际产业分工和美国实行选择性对外贸易政策的结果。从长远看，人民币市场化改革是必然趋势，但应该综合考虑中国贸易环境和金融环境两方面内容，根据不同发展情况选择最适合中国的市场化改革道路。
In recent years, Sino-US trade imbalance has become one of the factors affectingthe development of Sino-US relations and the main, the RMB exchange rate as themain reason for the trade imbalance is more academic attention. Forced politicalpressure and economic means for the United States and other developed countries,China's RMB exchange rate has been going on for eight years continuous appreciation,this provides stable exchange rate changes expected appreciation of the Buddha canreally solve the issue of Sino-US trade imbalance economics research at this stage Themost talked about issues. Therefore, on the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate canreally ease the Sino-US trade imbalance, as well as the appreciation of the renminbi tothe substantive impact of the Sino-US economic research has important practical andtheoretical significance. Revealed deeper appreciation of the RMB exchange rate andChina-US trade, as well as Sino-US economic relationship between empirical researchon the issue from the following aspects: First, the U.S. political attitude changewhether the real impact of the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime or whetherthere is a causal relationship between the RMB appreciation. Causal inherently tied toeven prove the RMB exchange rate on the Sino-US economic relations is essential, tosome extent has become a bridge of Sino-US relations; Second, the appreciation of therenminbi is able to mitigate or resolve the issue of Sino-US trade imbalance. The tradeimbalance is not conducive to the long-term development of any country could bedetrimental to the national interest. RMB appreciation should choose a reasonableappreciation of the ways to alleviate or solve the problem of Sino-US trade imbalance;Third, the appreciation of the renminbi would not affect China's foreign tradedevelopment; Fourth, the relationship between the appreciation of the renminbi and theU.S. economic development. Finally is the future direction of the renminbi outlooksuggestions. The thesis is divided into three parts to conduct feasibility studies on theabove issues:
Part I: The Basics. Article1and Chapter2of the article realistic background andrationale for introduction. Sino-US trade imbalance and global economic imbalancesin the context of RMB appreciation and Sino-US trade imbalance relations, Sino-UStrade imbalance in understanding the essence of master yuan reform latestdevelopments, prospects yuan future prospects, and better development of Sino-USeconomic and political relations has important practical significance. Text inmacroeconomics, international economics, international finance and quantitativeeconomics, based on the theory of exchange rate fluctuations, the internationalbalance of payments theory and open economy general equilibrium theory, time seriesand cointegration theory as a tool in the analysis based on the characteristics of theRMB exchange rate fluctuation of RMB appreciation impact on Sino-US tradeimbalance issues. Chapter2is mainly on the exchange rate related concepts, theorieswere reviewed and grooming, and the latest domestic and collate relevant literature asa whole to provide the necessary theoretical papers support. RMB Exchange Rate onChina's real economy, especially the impact of foreign trade increasingly significant,how to dig the exchange rate and foreign trade foreign trade between China and theU.S. in particular, the intrinsic link must be on China's exchange rate reform in historyand understanding. Since the reform and opening up30years, the exchange rateregime after several adjustments, through a fixed exchange rate regime pegged to thedollar even in the presence of fixed exchange rate regime and the parallel marketexchange official exchange rate, etc., in different period of development China hasdifferent effect. And foreign scholars on the exchange rate formation theory also beexplained in many ways, the understanding and the exchange rate formationmechanism and the future direction of reform is an important reference significance.
Part II: Empirical Analysis articles. Chapter3is to Chapter6. Chapter3describesthe path of the RMB exchange rate changes and changes in characteristics, and on thisbasis to demonstrate the link between the U.S. relations with China and the RMBexchange rate reform. Found after the establishment of U.S. relations with Chinaexponential model, the RMB exchange rate and the U.S. relations with China and thereis a strong correlation, and there is a two-way Granger causality. Through the aboveanalysis shows that the Sino-US political and economic relations between the fusionpromote, and interfere with each other hinder, good political relations can increase the communication and the development of bilateral economic and good economicrelations can improve political relations. Similarly, important changes in his politicalrelations are bound to affect the development of economic relations. Since the1990s,Sino-US political relations developed towards detente, contradictory performance is nolonger extreme, and take a more subtle political strategy change, for example, by theHouse of Representatives resolution on China's economic policies. In recent years,major political or economic resolutions tend to target China's exchange rate regime.Therefore, the author attempts to quantify and thus to investigate the relationshipbetween the change in China's exchange rate U.S. political relations with China. Canbe considered to some extent, the RMB exchange rate issue has become one of theprimary means of U.S. government constraints. Through the establishment of relevantlegislative proposal in the Senate, and even affect the RMB exchange rate and thusachieve the purpose of improving its domestic economy or to reduce the pressure ofdomestic public opinion. Chapter4reviews the course of development of Sino-UStrade and simple description and analysis of the status and cause of Sino-US tradeimbalance. I use four measurement methods empirical study of the relationshipbetween the RMB exchange rate and China-US trade balance, a variety of researchmethods show that the RMB exchange rate in Goldstein and Kahn (1985) proposedunder the framework of "imperfect substitution model" U.S. import and export tradeare cointegrated, but the appreciation of the renminbi to the U.S. dollar relative to thedevaluation of the Renminbi and will not significantly improve the Sino-US tradeimbalance, and even to some extent the deterioration of Sino-US Trade Balance.Chapter5is a simple introduction to the development of China's foreign trade situationand to verify the relationship between the RMB appreciation and the development ofChina's foreign trade. In this paper completed Kedai Ke-Robinson-Metzler'scompletely alternative model of the relationship between the RMB exchange rate andChina's foreign trade experience. By the empirical analysis shows that the realeffective exchange rate of the renminbi, China's import and export trade has long-termand stable relationship between the real effective exchange rate fluctuations on theimport and export trade in varying degrees. RMB appreciation great impact on China'sexport trade, and continued impact the exchange rate fluctuations on trade. If the yuanappreciation trend unchanged would severely affect the development of China's foreign trade. From the import trade, the RMB appreciation can increase the amount ofimports. Conduction ability of China's foreign exchange market on the trade market,exchange rate fluctuations, import and export enterprises will immediately reactaccordingly it. Chapter6analyzes the status quo of economic development, researchon the relationship between the appreciation of the renminbi and the U.S. employmentin the introduction of the model of economic development of the debt. In this paper,using standard intertemporal labor supply model Turnovsky (1995) established underthe open economy. The empirical results show that the domestic real wage levels andfinancial investment income also affect the employment situation in the United States.Strong guild forces of the United States wages can basically reflect the level ofeconomic development, to some extent, be able to attract more of the remainingpopulation in employment. Renminbi-U.S. dollar exchange rate with the U.S.domestic employment scale has a dominant negative characteristics, the appreciationof the real exchange rate of the RMB-U.S.$will reduce the scale of employment.Therefore, the Chinese government should choose the cautious strategy of long-termexchange rate appreciation, while increasing economic restructuring efforts, rapidlychanging trade structure based processing trade.
Part III: Reform Prospects articles. Dollar-pegged exchange rate system to makeChina bear the increasingly heavy development costs, ineffective monetary policymore interference-related policy formulation, thus yuan market reform is imperative.In the long term, the RMB exchange rate market is not only conducive to therealization of RMB internationalization, to some extent alleviate the development ofChina-US trade imbalance caused problems. Overall, China's current level ofdevelopment of trade and financial markets has allowed the construction of the RMBexchange rate to some extent, the implementation of market-oriented. But we mustnote that domestic economic conditions and financial environment has a profoundimpact on the reform mode choice, the choice of the path of reform can not be usedwhen the book worship or dogmatism, it should be recognized that the domesticeconomic situation and the financial impact of the RMB exchange rate reform, theenvironment is a key factor, the two are not mutually exclusive. Therefore, the RMBmarket reform path selection should be based on business size and maturity of thefinancial market, as measured at different stages of development in different development model, the implementation of progressive and radical reform of thecoexistence of scientific path.
为从更深层次揭示人民币汇率升值与中美贸易以及中美经济之间的关系，本文从以下几个方面对该问题进行实证研究：其一，美国对华政治态度变化是否真正影响人民币汇率制度改革或对人民币升值是否存在因果关系。若存在必然联系甚至存在因果则证明人民币汇率对中美经济关系至关重要，已在某种程度上成为解决中美关系的桥梁；其二，人民币升值是否能够缓解或者解决中美贸易失衡问题。贸易失衡不利于任何国家的长久发展，必将损害国家利益。若人民币升值能够缓解或解决中美贸易失衡问题则应选择合理的升值途径；其三，人民币升值是否影响中国对外贸易发展。对外贸易是拉动中国经济增长的主要动力，选择合理的汇率升值方式对中国经济发展关系重大；其四，人民币升值与美国经济发展之间的关系。尽管中美贸易相互依存度较高，但人民币汇率变动是否对美国实体经济产生直接影响值得商榷。经过严谨的规范研究和实证分析，本文发现美国长期通过政治压力影响中国汇率，人民币汇率已经成为中美双边关系中重要谈判内容之一，但中美双边贸易不符合马歇尔勒纳条件，人民币升值在解决中美贸易失衡问题方面作用不显著。同时，中国作为贸易大国，人民币升值不利于中国对外贸易的长期发展，而且以美国劳动力就业为例进行分析后发现，人民币升值也不能解决美国就业问题。
中美贸易失衡有自身的内部原因，是国际产业分工和美国实行选择性对外贸易政策的结果。从长远看，人民币市场化改革是必然趋势，但应该综合考虑中国贸易环境和金融环境两方面内容，根据不同发展情况选择最适合中国的市场化改革道路。
In recent years, Sino-US trade imbalance has become one of the factors affectingthe development of Sino-US relations and the main, the RMB exchange rate as themain reason for the trade imbalance is more academic attention. Forced politicalpressure and economic means for the United States and other developed countries,China's RMB exchange rate has been going on for eight years continuous appreciation,this provides stable exchange rate changes expected appreciation of the Buddha canreally solve the issue of Sino-US trade imbalance economics research at this stage Themost talked about issues. Therefore, on the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate canreally ease the Sino-US trade imbalance, as well as the appreciation of the renminbi tothe substantive impact of the Sino-US economic research has important practical andtheoretical significance. Revealed deeper appreciation of the RMB exchange rate andChina-US trade, as well as Sino-US economic relationship between empirical researchon the issue from the following aspects: First, the U.S. political attitude changewhether the real impact of the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime or whetherthere is a causal relationship between the RMB appreciation. Causal inherently tied toeven prove the RMB exchange rate on the Sino-US economic relations is essential, tosome extent has become a bridge of Sino-US relations; Second, the appreciation of therenminbi is able to mitigate or resolve the issue of Sino-US trade imbalance. The tradeimbalance is not conducive to the long-term development of any country could bedetrimental to the national interest. RMB appreciation should choose a reasonableappreciation of the ways to alleviate or solve the problem of Sino-US trade imbalance;Third, the appreciation of the renminbi would not affect China's foreign tradedevelopment; Fourth, the relationship between the appreciation of the renminbi and theU.S. economic development. Finally is the future direction of the renminbi outlooksuggestions. The thesis is divided into three parts to conduct feasibility studies on theabove issues:
Part I: The Basics. Article1and Chapter2of the article realistic background andrationale for introduction. Sino-US trade imbalance and global economic imbalancesin the context of RMB appreciation and Sino-US trade imbalance relations, Sino-UStrade imbalance in understanding the essence of master yuan reform latestdevelopments, prospects yuan future prospects, and better development of Sino-USeconomic and political relations has important practical significance. Text inmacroeconomics, international economics, international finance and quantitativeeconomics, based on the theory of exchange rate fluctuations, the internationalbalance of payments theory and open economy general equilibrium theory, time seriesand cointegration theory as a tool in the analysis based on the characteristics of theRMB exchange rate fluctuation of RMB appreciation impact on Sino-US tradeimbalance issues. Chapter2is mainly on the exchange rate related concepts, theorieswere reviewed and grooming, and the latest domestic and collate relevant literature asa whole to provide the necessary theoretical papers support. RMB Exchange Rate onChina's real economy, especially the impact of foreign trade increasingly significant,how to dig the exchange rate and foreign trade foreign trade between China and theU.S. in particular, the intrinsic link must be on China's exchange rate reform in historyand understanding. Since the reform and opening up30years, the exchange rateregime after several adjustments, through a fixed exchange rate regime pegged to thedollar even in the presence of fixed exchange rate regime and the parallel marketexchange official exchange rate, etc., in different period of development China hasdifferent effect. And foreign scholars on the exchange rate formation theory also beexplained in many ways, the understanding and the exchange rate formationmechanism and the future direction of reform is an important reference significance.
Part II: Empirical Analysis articles. Chapter3is to Chapter6. Chapter3describesthe path of the RMB exchange rate changes and changes in characteristics, and on thisbasis to demonstrate the link between the U.S. relations with China and the RMBexchange rate reform. Found after the establishment of U.S. relations with Chinaexponential model, the RMB exchange rate and the U.S. relations with China and thereis a strong correlation, and there is a two-way Granger causality. Through the aboveanalysis shows that the Sino-US political and economic relations between the fusionpromote, and interfere with each other hinder, good political relations can increase the communication and the development of bilateral economic and good economicrelations can improve political relations. Similarly, important changes in his politicalrelations are bound to affect the development of economic relations. Since the1990s,Sino-US political relations developed towards detente, contradictory performance is nolonger extreme, and take a more subtle political strategy change, for example, by theHouse of Representatives resolution on China's economic policies. In recent years,major political or economic resolutions tend to target China's exchange rate regime.Therefore, the author attempts to quantify and thus to investigate the relationshipbetween the change in China's exchange rate U.S. political relations with China. Canbe considered to some extent, the RMB exchange rate issue has become one of theprimary means of U.S. government constraints. Through the establishment of relevantlegislative proposal in the Senate, and even affect the RMB exchange rate and thusachieve the purpose of improving its domestic economy or to reduce the pressure ofdomestic public opinion. Chapter4reviews the course of development of Sino-UStrade and simple description and analysis of the status and cause of Sino-US tradeimbalance. I use four measurement methods empirical study of the relationshipbetween the RMB exchange rate and China-US trade balance, a variety of researchmethods show that the RMB exchange rate in Goldstein and Kahn (1985) proposedunder the framework of "imperfect substitution model" U.S. import and export tradeare cointegrated, but the appreciation of the renminbi to the U.S. dollar relative to thedevaluation of the Renminbi and will not significantly improve the Sino-US tradeimbalance, and even to some extent the deterioration of Sino-US Trade Balance.Chapter5is a simple introduction to the development of China's foreign trade situationand to verify the relationship between the RMB appreciation and the development ofChina's foreign trade. In this paper completed Kedai Ke-Robinson-Metzler'scompletely alternative model of the relationship between the RMB exchange rate andChina's foreign trade experience. By the empirical analysis shows that the realeffective exchange rate of the renminbi, China's import and export trade has long-termand stable relationship between the real effective exchange rate fluctuations on theimport and export trade in varying degrees. RMB appreciation great impact on China'sexport trade, and continued impact the exchange rate fluctuations on trade. If the yuanappreciation trend unchanged would severely affect the development of China's foreign trade. From the import trade, the RMB appreciation can increase the amount ofimports. Conduction ability of China's foreign exchange market on the trade market,exchange rate fluctuations, import and export enterprises will immediately reactaccordingly it. Chapter6analyzes the status quo of economic development, researchon the relationship between the appreciation of the renminbi and the U.S. employmentin the introduction of the model of economic development of the debt. In this paper,using standard intertemporal labor supply model Turnovsky (1995) established underthe open economy. The empirical results show that the domestic real wage levels andfinancial investment income also affect the employment situation in the United States.Strong guild forces of the United States wages can basically reflect the level ofeconomic development, to some extent, be able to attract more of the remainingpopulation in employment. Renminbi-U.S. dollar exchange rate with the U.S.domestic employment scale has a dominant negative characteristics, the appreciationof the real exchange rate of the RMB-U.S.$will reduce the scale of employment.Therefore, the Chinese government should choose the cautious strategy of long-termexchange rate appreciation, while increasing economic restructuring efforts, rapidlychanging trade structure based processing trade.
Part III: Reform Prospects articles. Dollar-pegged exchange rate system to makeChina bear the increasingly heavy development costs, ineffective monetary policymore interference-related policy formulation, thus yuan market reform is imperative.In the long term, the RMB exchange rate market is not only conducive to therealization of RMB internationalization, to some extent alleviate the development ofChina-US trade imbalance caused problems. Overall, China's current level ofdevelopment of trade and financial markets has allowed the construction of the RMBexchange rate to some extent, the implementation of market-oriented. But we mustnote that domestic economic conditions and financial environment has a profoundimpact on the reform mode choice, the choice of the path of reform can not be usedwhen the book worship or dogmatism, it should be recognized that the domesticeconomic situation and the financial impact of the RMB exchange rate reform, theenvironment is a key factor, the two are not mutually exclusive. Therefore, the RMBmarket reform path selection should be based on business size and maturity of thefinancial market, as measured at different stages of development in different development model, the implementation of progressive and radical reform of thecoexistence of scientific path.
引文
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