基于碳排放量的河北省产业结构优化研究
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摘要
随着碳排放的持续增长及其对全球生态环境造成的巨大威胁，如何降低碳排放已成为世界各国关心的焦点所在。本文采用不同方法探讨河北省碳排放量与主要影响因素间的关系，运用指数分解法分析河北省不同年度各产业产值及单位产值碳排放量变动对碳排放总量的影响，采用灰色关联方法综合评价工业内各行业的碳排放强度，找出河北省碳排放重点监控的地区，根据研究结果提出河北省产业结构调整与优化策略。
首先，本文重点阐述河北省人口与社会经济发展状况，根据河北省能源消耗结构及能源消耗总量，计算出各种能源消耗量；根据各种能源消费总量及各种能源的碳排放系数，计算各种能源的碳排放量及总的碳排放量。采用简单相关分析法、偏相关分析法及神经网络分析法，探讨碳排放量与主要影响因素间的关系。建立碳排放量主要影响因素与时间的回归方程，根据碳排放量主要影响因素的预测值对碳排放量进行预测。
其次，运用指数分解法探讨河北省不同年度各产业产值及单位产值碳排放量变动对碳排放总量的影响，分析产业结构变动及不同产业单位产值碳排放量变动对总的单位产值碳排放量的影响；为了反映不同产业在碳排放增量及增速所起到作用不同，创新地计算不同产业碳排放增量分担率和增速拉动率。
再次，在规模以上工业内部，为了甄选需要调整和发展的行业，选择单位职工人数碳排放量、单位总产值碳排放量和单位利润碳排放量三个碳排放强度指标，采用熵值法确定三个指标权重。采用灰色关联方法计算工业内各行业的碳排放强度平均关联系数，以此作为工业内各行业结构调整与优化依据。根据综合评价结果，确定需要调整的行业和应大力发展行业，为工业内各行业结构调整提供思路。同时从河北省碳排放量的地区分布角度，分析各地区碳排放总量和碳排放强度，找出河北省碳排放重点监控的地区应是唐山市、邯郸市、张家口市和石家庄市。
最后，通过分析三次产业的碳排放总量及三次产业碳排放强度，确定积极发展第一产业，尽量压缩第二产业，大力发展第三产业的三次产业优化策略。在第一产业方面，提出河北省应加快发展区域特色农业、绿色农业和创汇农业，努力提高专业化生产程度。同时大力林业,提高森林碳汇的储藏量。河北省第二产业结构优化应重点对7个行业进行，在考虑其他因素的同时进行产业调整。河北省在第三产业结构优化方面，从低碳角度应积极发展文化产业，全力发展旅游产业。同时提出建立碳交易市场，努力提高矿产资源回收率，建设循环经济工业园区的机制策略。
With the continuous growth of carbon emissions and its great threat to the globalecological environment, how to reduce carbon emissions has become the focus of mostcountries in the world.This article explores the relationship between the carbon emissionsof Hebei province and its main affecting factors from different aspects; it also, using theindex decomposition method analyzes the influence of each industrial output value ofdifferent years in Hebei province and the influence of the change of carbon emissionsthat per unit output value on the total carbon emissions. It also comprehensivelyevaluates the carbon intensity of each industry with grey correlation method, identifiesthe key-monitoring carbon emission areas in Hebei province, and at last according to thefindings comes up with the strategies of industrial adjustment and optimization in HebeiProvince.
Firstly, this article emphasizes on the population and social economic developmentof Hebei province. Various energy consumptions can be calculated in the light of theenergy consumption structure and the total energy consumption of Hebei province.Furthermore, according to the total energy consumption and carbon emissionscoefficients of various energies, the carbon emissions of various energy and the totalcarbon emissions can be computed. By simple correlation analysis, partial correlationanalysis and neural network analysis, the relationship between carbon emissions and itsmain influencing factors can be found. In this part, based on the regression equationsbetween main influencing factors of carbon emissions and its time, the predictive valueof main influencing factors of carbon emissions is used to forecast carbon emissions.
Secondly, adopting the index decomposition method, this article analyzes theinfluence of each industrial output value of different years in Hebei Province and theinfluence of the change of carbon emissions that per unit output value on the total carbonemissions, also the influence of the changes of industrial structure and carbon emissionchanges of per unit output value in different industries on the total carbon emissions perunit output value. In order to reflect the different roles played by different industries in the increment and growth of carbon emissions, this article innovatively calculates theshare rate of carbon emissions increment and the pulling rate of carbon emissions growthin different industries.
Thirdly, among the industries above designated size, in order to select the industrieswhich need adjustment and development, this article chooses three indices of carbonemissions intensity including carbon emissions of per unit number of employees, carbonemissions of per unit total output value and carbon emissions of unit profit. The weightsof three indices can be evaluated by Entropy method. The average correlation coefficientof carbon intensity within the industries is calculated by Grey Relation method, which istaken as the basis for industrial structure adjustment and optimization. According to theresults of comprehensive evaluation, the industries demanding adjustment anddevelopment can be determined, which provides ideas for the adjustment of industrialstructure. Meanwhile, this article analyzes the regional total carbon emissions and carbonintensity from the perspective of regional distribution of carbon emissions in Hebeiprovince. The results indicate that the carbon emissions in Tangshan, Handan,Shijiazhuang and Zhangjiakou of Hebei Province should be given prior monitoring.
Finally, through the analysis of total carbon emissions and carbon intensity of threeindustries, the optimization strategy of three industries is to actively develop the firstindustry, try to compress the second industry and vigorously develop the third industry. Inthe first industry, Hebei Province should speed up the development of regionalcharacteristic agriculture, green agriculture and export-oriented agriculture; make effortsto increase the degree of specialization of production and vigorously develop forestry toincrease the reserves of forest carbon sink. In the second industry, Heibei Province willcarry out its structure optimization mainly in7industries and industrial restructuringwhile taking into account other factors. In the third industry, in term of low carbon,Heibei Province should actively develop cultural industry and fully exploit tourismindustry. Meanwhile, this part proposes a mechanism of strategy that Heibei Provinceshould establish carbon trading market, strive to improve the recovery rate of mineralresources and construct the circular economy industrial parks.
首先，本文重点阐述河北省人口与社会经济发展状况，根据河北省能源消耗结构及能源消耗总量，计算出各种能源消耗量；根据各种能源消费总量及各种能源的碳排放系数，计算各种能源的碳排放量及总的碳排放量。采用简单相关分析法、偏相关分析法及神经网络分析法，探讨碳排放量与主要影响因素间的关系。建立碳排放量主要影响因素与时间的回归方程，根据碳排放量主要影响因素的预测值对碳排放量进行预测。
其次，运用指数分解法探讨河北省不同年度各产业产值及单位产值碳排放量变动对碳排放总量的影响，分析产业结构变动及不同产业单位产值碳排放量变动对总的单位产值碳排放量的影响；为了反映不同产业在碳排放增量及增速所起到作用不同，创新地计算不同产业碳排放增量分担率和增速拉动率。
再次，在规模以上工业内部，为了甄选需要调整和发展的行业，选择单位职工人数碳排放量、单位总产值碳排放量和单位利润碳排放量三个碳排放强度指标，采用熵值法确定三个指标权重。采用灰色关联方法计算工业内各行业的碳排放强度平均关联系数，以此作为工业内各行业结构调整与优化依据。根据综合评价结果，确定需要调整的行业和应大力发展行业，为工业内各行业结构调整提供思路。同时从河北省碳排放量的地区分布角度，分析各地区碳排放总量和碳排放强度，找出河北省碳排放重点监控的地区应是唐山市、邯郸市、张家口市和石家庄市。
最后，通过分析三次产业的碳排放总量及三次产业碳排放强度，确定积极发展第一产业，尽量压缩第二产业，大力发展第三产业的三次产业优化策略。在第一产业方面，提出河北省应加快发展区域特色农业、绿色农业和创汇农业，努力提高专业化生产程度。同时大力林业,提高森林碳汇的储藏量。河北省第二产业结构优化应重点对7个行业进行，在考虑其他因素的同时进行产业调整。河北省在第三产业结构优化方面，从低碳角度应积极发展文化产业，全力发展旅游产业。同时提出建立碳交易市场，努力提高矿产资源回收率，建设循环经济工业园区的机制策略。
With the continuous growth of carbon emissions and its great threat to the globalecological environment, how to reduce carbon emissions has become the focus of mostcountries in the world.This article explores the relationship between the carbon emissionsof Hebei province and its main affecting factors from different aspects; it also, using theindex decomposition method analyzes the influence of each industrial output value ofdifferent years in Hebei province and the influence of the change of carbon emissionsthat per unit output value on the total carbon emissions. It also comprehensivelyevaluates the carbon intensity of each industry with grey correlation method, identifiesthe key-monitoring carbon emission areas in Hebei province, and at last according to thefindings comes up with the strategies of industrial adjustment and optimization in HebeiProvince.
Firstly, this article emphasizes on the population and social economic developmentof Hebei province. Various energy consumptions can be calculated in the light of theenergy consumption structure and the total energy consumption of Hebei province.Furthermore, according to the total energy consumption and carbon emissionscoefficients of various energies, the carbon emissions of various energy and the totalcarbon emissions can be computed. By simple correlation analysis, partial correlationanalysis and neural network analysis, the relationship between carbon emissions and itsmain influencing factors can be found. In this part, based on the regression equationsbetween main influencing factors of carbon emissions and its time, the predictive valueof main influencing factors of carbon emissions is used to forecast carbon emissions.
Secondly, adopting the index decomposition method, this article analyzes theinfluence of each industrial output value of different years in Hebei Province and theinfluence of the change of carbon emissions that per unit output value on the total carbonemissions, also the influence of the changes of industrial structure and carbon emissionchanges of per unit output value in different industries on the total carbon emissions perunit output value. In order to reflect the different roles played by different industries in the increment and growth of carbon emissions, this article innovatively calculates theshare rate of carbon emissions increment and the pulling rate of carbon emissions growthin different industries.
Thirdly, among the industries above designated size, in order to select the industrieswhich need adjustment and development, this article chooses three indices of carbonemissions intensity including carbon emissions of per unit number of employees, carbonemissions of per unit total output value and carbon emissions of unit profit. The weightsof three indices can be evaluated by Entropy method. The average correlation coefficientof carbon intensity within the industries is calculated by Grey Relation method, which istaken as the basis for industrial structure adjustment and optimization. According to theresults of comprehensive evaluation, the industries demanding adjustment anddevelopment can be determined, which provides ideas for the adjustment of industrialstructure. Meanwhile, this article analyzes the regional total carbon emissions and carbonintensity from the perspective of regional distribution of carbon emissions in Hebeiprovince. The results indicate that the carbon emissions in Tangshan, Handan,Shijiazhuang and Zhangjiakou of Hebei Province should be given prior monitoring.
Finally, through the analysis of total carbon emissions and carbon intensity of threeindustries, the optimization strategy of three industries is to actively develop the firstindustry, try to compress the second industry and vigorously develop the third industry. Inthe first industry, Hebei Province should speed up the development of regionalcharacteristic agriculture, green agriculture and export-oriented agriculture; make effortsto increase the degree of specialization of production and vigorously develop forestry toincrease the reserves of forest carbon sink. In the second industry, Heibei Province willcarry out its structure optimization mainly in7industries and industrial restructuringwhile taking into account other factors. In the third industry, in term of low carbon,Heibei Province should actively develop cultural industry and fully exploit tourismindustry. Meanwhile, this part proposes a mechanism of strategy that Heibei Provinceshould establish carbon trading market, strive to improve the recovery rate of mineralresources and construct the circular economy industrial parks.
引文
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