基于协同动力机制理论的中国旅游产业发展模式研究
|
摘要
中国旅游产业经过改革开放后多年的高速发展,已基本走完了发育期与成长期,政府主导型旅游产业发展模式在这一过程中起到了积极促进作用。持续的高速增长使中国旅游产业仅用了短短的30年时间就追上了西方发达国家用了200年,甚至更长的时间才达到的产业规模,这无疑是巨大的成就。但随着旅游产业外部环境的日趋复杂化,以及产业内部由于持续的高速增长积累的问题不断增多,中国旅游产业出现了高速增长与竞争力不强同时存在的矛盾,这说明其规模足够大,但发展质量不够好。这是由于政府主导型旅游产业发展模式在发挥积极作用的同时所产生的负面效应所致,如不进行模式转换,这一矛盾是无法自行化解的。
本文基于演化经济学、自组织理论、协同学理论、耗散结构理论等复杂性理论和产业经济学等相关理论,以演化的视角,结合动力机制原理,对产业系统自组织特性及自组织演化动力机制的逻辑框架进行了研究,并在此基础上构建出产业系统自组织演化的协同动力机制模型。该模型运行的主要原理为:在产业系统开放的大前提下,由控制参量的熵减机制提供适当的产业演化环境,通过竞争机制使系统趋于非平衡态,通过协同机制使子系统状态参量产生非线性藕合效应,系统因此产生巨涨落并产生宏观序参量,最终通过序参量之役使机制的支配作用,推动产业系统的自组织演化。
在研究的过程中,依据产业系统自组织演化协同动力机制模型对政府主导型中国旅游产业系统演化动力机制进行了深入分析,得出了“政府主导型调节方式是中国旅游产业系统现阶段演化的序参量”的结论。研究结果表明,现阶段的中国旅游产业系统开放程度不高、熵减机制作用有限、系统处于近平衡态,非线性协同效应不明显,主要靠政府的外力推动,自组织演化程度不高。政府主导型调节方式这个序参量已经很难继续主宰新阶段的中国旅游产业系统演化,序参量本身面临突变性跃升压力。
研究结果进一步表明,在旅游产业的发育、成长及特殊扰动时期,政府主导型调节方式起积极作用,而当产业向成熟期转变时,需要一种能够适应新阶段内外部环境的调节方式取而代之。本研究认为,在中国旅游产业系统由市场发育期向成熟期转变阶段,需要一种能够尊重产业系统自组织演化规律,充分发挥环境的调节作用,诱致旅游产业系统在协同动力机制作用下,以自组织方式演化的旅游产业发展模式来取代现有的政府主导型发展模式。我们称这种模式为环境诱致型旅游产业发展模式,其核心内涵在于由环境诱致型调节方式取代政府主导型调节方式成为主宰中国旅游产业系统新阶段自组织演化的序参量。
在实证研究中,根据“旅游产业发展的调节方式——旅游产业状态参量——产业绩效”这个旅游产业发展模式演变的逻辑思路,对于旅游产业发展模式演变模型进行了分析验证,验证了“环境诱致型调节方式可以促进中国旅游产业系统发展绩效”的假设。在进一步的案例研究中,选取哈尔滨市冰雪旅游产业和日本札幌冰雪旅游产业正反两个方面的例证作为研究对象,通过对其演变过程的研究,说明中国旅游产业整体发展模式演变的必要性及演变的方式。依据产业系统自组织演化协同动力机制模型,对哈尔滨市冰雪旅游产业发展模式和日本札幌冰雪旅游产业发展模式分别进行深入分析,探究由政府主导型发展模式转向环境诱致型发展模式演变的内在规律。构建了旅游产业发展模式分析模型,在此基础上对中国旅游产业由政府主导型发展模式向环境诱致型发展模式演变的路径进行了分析,并从发展模式转换角度,给出了由政府主导型发展模式向环境诱致型发展模式演变的政策建议,希望以此促进中国旅游产业向有序或更高有序方向发展。
Following continuous and high-speed development of China after innovation and opening, Chinese tourism already passed through its phases of development and growth, the government-leading evolutive pattern of tourism play an important part in the process. In thirty years, Chinese tourism caught up with the industry size, which was reached by western developed countries in two hundred even more years, this is certainly a great achievement. But, Chinese tourism came forth contradiction of high-speed increase and weak competition power, following complexer external environment of tourism and more accumulating problems of continuous increase, it explains that quantity is great, yet quality is bad. The contradiction was caused by the side-effect of government-leading evolutive pattern of tourism, if we don’t transform evolutive pattern of tourism, the contradiction can’t be solved by itself.
Based on industrial economics and complexity theories of evolving economics, self-organized theory, cooperating theory, dissipated structure theory and so on, according to evolutive visual angle, combining dynamic mechanism elements, this paper researchs into logistic frames of self-organized characteristic and evolutive dynamic mechanism on industrial system, constructs the cooperating and dynamic mechanism model of self-organized evolution on industrial system. Main elements of this model are: under the premise of opening industrial system, the entropy decreasing mechanism of controlled parameter provides proper evolutive environment of industry, the competitive mechanism causes unbalance of system, the coopetating mechanism leads to non-linear coupling effect of state parameter in subsystem, so the system comes into being great increase and decrease, and generates macroscopical order parameter, finally the dominant effect of controlling mechanism on order parameter impels self-organized evolution of industrial system.
In the process of investigation, according as the cooperating and dynamic mechnism model of self-organized evolution on industrial system,the research analyzes carefully the government-leading evolutive dynamic mechnism of Chinese tourism system, draws a conclusion:“at present, government-leading adjusted mode is the evolutive order parameter of Chinese tourism system”. Results of research indicate, presently the opening degree of Chinese tourism system is low, the action of entropy decreasing mechanism is limited, the system is about balanceable, the non-linear cooperating effect isn’t distinct, the degree of self-organized evolution is low, the tourism mostly depends on impelling power of government. Government-leading adjusted mode, for the order parameter, it is difficult to dominate continuously the evolution of Chinese tourism system in future, the order parameter is faced with mutative pressures.
Results of research indicate furthermore, the government-leading adjusted mode can play an active part in the course of development, growth and special disorder of tourism, however, in the course of maturation of industry, we require a kind of new adjusted mode which adapts to internal and external environments in the new stages. The research considers, during the period of transformation from growth to maturation of Chinese tourism system, we require a kind of new evolutive pattern of tourism, it will replace the existing government-leading evolutive pattern, it can exert adequately adjusting function of environment, respect the self-organized evolutive rules of industrial system, induce self-organized evolution of tourism system under the action of cooperating and dynamic mechanism. We call it“environment-leading evolutive pattern of tourism”, its core is: the environment-leading adjusted mode replaces government-leading adjusted mode, turns into the self-organized evolutive order parameter of Chinese tourism system.
In the positive research, according as correlative data of Harbin tourism development and structure equation analysis, the investigation analyzes dynamic mechnisms of government-leading and environment-leading evolutions on Chinese tourism system, moreover validates the hypothesis“environment-leading adjusted mode is the future evolutive order parameter of Chinese tourism system”.
In the farther case investigation, this paper selects ice-snow tourism in Harbin which is acted as research object, explains the necessity and method of Chinese tourism evolutive pattern by means of the research of evolutive process. In addition, according to the cooperating and dynamic mechnism model of self-organized evolution on industrial system, the investigation analysizes thoroughly the evolutive pattern of ice-snow tourism in Harbin, explores the evolutive rules of transformation from government-leading pattern to environment-leading pattern. Finally, based on the constructed analytical model of evolutive pattern on tourism, the research analysizes the evolutive path of Chinese tourism transformation from government-leading pattern to environment-leading pattern, according to the visual angle of evolutive pattern transformation, brings forward policy advice of transformation on evolutive pattern, and expects that they can promote more orderly development of Chinese tourism.
本文基于演化经济学、自组织理论、协同学理论、耗散结构理论等复杂性理论和产业经济学等相关理论,以演化的视角,结合动力机制原理,对产业系统自组织特性及自组织演化动力机制的逻辑框架进行了研究,并在此基础上构建出产业系统自组织演化的协同动力机制模型。该模型运行的主要原理为:在产业系统开放的大前提下,由控制参量的熵减机制提供适当的产业演化环境,通过竞争机制使系统趋于非平衡态,通过协同机制使子系统状态参量产生非线性藕合效应,系统因此产生巨涨落并产生宏观序参量,最终通过序参量之役使机制的支配作用,推动产业系统的自组织演化。
在研究的过程中,依据产业系统自组织演化协同动力机制模型对政府主导型中国旅游产业系统演化动力机制进行了深入分析,得出了“政府主导型调节方式是中国旅游产业系统现阶段演化的序参量”的结论。研究结果表明,现阶段的中国旅游产业系统开放程度不高、熵减机制作用有限、系统处于近平衡态,非线性协同效应不明显,主要靠政府的外力推动,自组织演化程度不高。政府主导型调节方式这个序参量已经很难继续主宰新阶段的中国旅游产业系统演化,序参量本身面临突变性跃升压力。
研究结果进一步表明,在旅游产业的发育、成长及特殊扰动时期,政府主导型调节方式起积极作用,而当产业向成熟期转变时,需要一种能够适应新阶段内外部环境的调节方式取而代之。本研究认为,在中国旅游产业系统由市场发育期向成熟期转变阶段,需要一种能够尊重产业系统自组织演化规律,充分发挥环境的调节作用,诱致旅游产业系统在协同动力机制作用下,以自组织方式演化的旅游产业发展模式来取代现有的政府主导型发展模式。我们称这种模式为环境诱致型旅游产业发展模式,其核心内涵在于由环境诱致型调节方式取代政府主导型调节方式成为主宰中国旅游产业系统新阶段自组织演化的序参量。
在实证研究中,根据“旅游产业发展的调节方式——旅游产业状态参量——产业绩效”这个旅游产业发展模式演变的逻辑思路,对于旅游产业发展模式演变模型进行了分析验证,验证了“环境诱致型调节方式可以促进中国旅游产业系统发展绩效”的假设。在进一步的案例研究中,选取哈尔滨市冰雪旅游产业和日本札幌冰雪旅游产业正反两个方面的例证作为研究对象,通过对其演变过程的研究,说明中国旅游产业整体发展模式演变的必要性及演变的方式。依据产业系统自组织演化协同动力机制模型,对哈尔滨市冰雪旅游产业发展模式和日本札幌冰雪旅游产业发展模式分别进行深入分析,探究由政府主导型发展模式转向环境诱致型发展模式演变的内在规律。构建了旅游产业发展模式分析模型,在此基础上对中国旅游产业由政府主导型发展模式向环境诱致型发展模式演变的路径进行了分析,并从发展模式转换角度,给出了由政府主导型发展模式向环境诱致型发展模式演变的政策建议,希望以此促进中国旅游产业向有序或更高有序方向发展。
Following continuous and high-speed development of China after innovation and opening, Chinese tourism already passed through its phases of development and growth, the government-leading evolutive pattern of tourism play an important part in the process. In thirty years, Chinese tourism caught up with the industry size, which was reached by western developed countries in two hundred even more years, this is certainly a great achievement. But, Chinese tourism came forth contradiction of high-speed increase and weak competition power, following complexer external environment of tourism and more accumulating problems of continuous increase, it explains that quantity is great, yet quality is bad. The contradiction was caused by the side-effect of government-leading evolutive pattern of tourism, if we don’t transform evolutive pattern of tourism, the contradiction can’t be solved by itself.
Based on industrial economics and complexity theories of evolving economics, self-organized theory, cooperating theory, dissipated structure theory and so on, according to evolutive visual angle, combining dynamic mechanism elements, this paper researchs into logistic frames of self-organized characteristic and evolutive dynamic mechanism on industrial system, constructs the cooperating and dynamic mechanism model of self-organized evolution on industrial system. Main elements of this model are: under the premise of opening industrial system, the entropy decreasing mechanism of controlled parameter provides proper evolutive environment of industry, the competitive mechanism causes unbalance of system, the coopetating mechanism leads to non-linear coupling effect of state parameter in subsystem, so the system comes into being great increase and decrease, and generates macroscopical order parameter, finally the dominant effect of controlling mechanism on order parameter impels self-organized evolution of industrial system.
In the process of investigation, according as the cooperating and dynamic mechnism model of self-organized evolution on industrial system,the research analyzes carefully the government-leading evolutive dynamic mechnism of Chinese tourism system, draws a conclusion:“at present, government-leading adjusted mode is the evolutive order parameter of Chinese tourism system”. Results of research indicate, presently the opening degree of Chinese tourism system is low, the action of entropy decreasing mechanism is limited, the system is about balanceable, the non-linear cooperating effect isn’t distinct, the degree of self-organized evolution is low, the tourism mostly depends on impelling power of government. Government-leading adjusted mode, for the order parameter, it is difficult to dominate continuously the evolution of Chinese tourism system in future, the order parameter is faced with mutative pressures.
Results of research indicate furthermore, the government-leading adjusted mode can play an active part in the course of development, growth and special disorder of tourism, however, in the course of maturation of industry, we require a kind of new adjusted mode which adapts to internal and external environments in the new stages. The research considers, during the period of transformation from growth to maturation of Chinese tourism system, we require a kind of new evolutive pattern of tourism, it will replace the existing government-leading evolutive pattern, it can exert adequately adjusting function of environment, respect the self-organized evolutive rules of industrial system, induce self-organized evolution of tourism system under the action of cooperating and dynamic mechanism. We call it“environment-leading evolutive pattern of tourism”, its core is: the environment-leading adjusted mode replaces government-leading adjusted mode, turns into the self-organized evolutive order parameter of Chinese tourism system.
In the positive research, according as correlative data of Harbin tourism development and structure equation analysis, the investigation analyzes dynamic mechnisms of government-leading and environment-leading evolutions on Chinese tourism system, moreover validates the hypothesis“environment-leading adjusted mode is the future evolutive order parameter of Chinese tourism system”.
In the farther case investigation, this paper selects ice-snow tourism in Harbin which is acted as research object, explains the necessity and method of Chinese tourism evolutive pattern by means of the research of evolutive process. In addition, according to the cooperating and dynamic mechnism model of self-organized evolution on industrial system, the investigation analysizes thoroughly the evolutive pattern of ice-snow tourism in Harbin, explores the evolutive rules of transformation from government-leading pattern to environment-leading pattern. Finally, based on the constructed analytical model of evolutive pattern on tourism, the research analysizes the evolutive path of Chinese tourism transformation from government-leading pattern to environment-leading pattern, according to the visual angle of evolutive pattern transformation, brings forward policy advice of transformation on evolutive pattern, and expects that they can promote more orderly development of Chinese tourism.
引文
1刘伟.中国经济增长能持续多少年.理论导报. 2008, (2):5~6
2林毅夫.任若恩.东亚经济增长模式相关争论的再探讨.经济研究. 2007, (8): 4~12
3 Kanishka Jayasuriya. Political Economy of Demo Cratizationin East Asia. Asian Perspective. 1994, 1(2): 146
4夏爽,赵元兵.东亚奇迹的经验教训及其启示.兰州学刊. 2006. (5): 157~ 158 179
5全毅.论东亚发展模式的内涵与基本特征.亚太经济. 2008, (5) :13~18
6任仲平.决定现代化命运的重大抉择.人民网. 2010. 3
7 Herbert A.Simon.Models of Bounded Rationality.Economic Analysis and Public Policy.1982. 1
8 Aimen A. Alchian. Uncertainty. Evolution. and Economic Theory. The Journal of Political Economy. 1950, 58(3): 211~221
9普利高津.从混沌到有序.上海译文出版社. 1987: 2~8
10邵琪伟.旅游科研课题成果选.北京:中国旅游出版社. 2008
11 Burkart. A J.. S. Medlik. Tourism Past. Present and Future. London: Cox and Wyman Ltd
12 Brian Archer. Director. Domestic Tourism as a Development Factor. Annals of Tourism Research. 1978,5(1):126~141
13 Pye. E. A.. Lin. T. B.Tourism in Asia: the Economic Impact. Canada: Singapore University Press for International Development Research Centre. 1983: 4
14 Bruner. Edward M.‘Transformation of Self in Tourism’. Annals of Tourism Research. 1991,18(2):38~50
15 Lanfant. M. International Tourism Resists the Crisis. In Leisure and Life-style. London: Sage. 1989:178~193
16 Sargent J. R. et al. Report of the Tripartite Economic Survey of the East Caribbean. London:H.M.S. 1967
17 Bryden J.. M.Faber. Multiplying the Tourist Multiplier. Social and Economic Studies. 1971,20: 61~82
18 Bryden.J. Tourism and Development: A Case Study of the Common wealthCaribbean. Cambridge: University Press. 1973
19 T. Hills and J. Lundgren. The Impact of Tourism in the Caribbean: a Methodological Study. Annals of Tourism Research. 1977, 4(5): 248~267
20 De Kadt. E. Tourism Passport to Development. New York: Oxford University Press. 1979
21 Britton. S. G. The Spatial Organisation of Tourism in a Neo-Colonial Economy: A Fiji Case Study. Pacific Viewpoint. 1980, 21:144~165
22 Husbands. W.. Centres. Peripheries. Tourism and Socio-spatial Development. Ontario Geography. 1981,173: 7~11
23 Debbage. K. Oligopoly and The Resort Cycle in the Bahamas. Annals of Tourism Research. 1990, 17:513~527
24 Gunn. C. A. Tourism Planning (2nd ed.). New York: Taylor and Francis. 1988
25 Pearce. D. G.. Tourist Development (2nd ed.). Harlow: Longman and New York: Wiley. 1989
26 Pearce.D.G.. R.M.Kirk. Carrying Capacities for Coastal Tourism. Industry and Environment. 1989,9(1): 3~7
27 Smith. S. L. J. Comments on“Tourist Space and Tourist Attraction”. Leisure Sciences. 1989,(7):65~71
28 Din. K. H.. Bumiputra Entrepreneurship in the Penang-Langkawi Tourist Industry. Unpublished PhD dissertation. University of Hawaii. 1990
29 Bull. A. The Economics of Travel and Tourism. Melbourne: Longman Cheshire. 1991
30 Inskeep E. Tourism Planning: An Integrated and Sustainable Development Approach. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold. 1991
31 Veal. A. Research Methods for Leisure and Tourism: A Practical Guide. Harlow: Longman. 1993
32 D Hart serre A. Lesson in managerial destination competitiveness in the case of Foxwoods Casino resor. Tourism Management. 2000,21 (1) :23~32
33 John Ap. Kevin K F Wong. Case study on tour guiding: Professionalism. Issues and Problems. Tourism Management. 2001,22 (2) :551~563
34 Kim C. Destination Competitiveness: Determinants and Indicators. Current Issues in Tourism. 2003,6(5): 369~414
35 Enright M J . Newton J. Determinants of Tourism Destination Competitiveness in Asia Pacific: Comprehensiveness and universality. J ournal of TravelResearch. 2005,43 (1) :339~350
36 Riliang Qu. Chri stine Ennew. M Thea Sinclair. The Impact of Regulation and Ownership Structure on Market Orientation in the Touri Sm Industry in China. Tourism Management. 2005,26 (1) : 939
37 Adam Blake M. Thea Sinclair. Juan Antonio Campos Soria. Tourism productivity evidence from the United Kingdom. Annals of Tourism Research. 2006,33 (4) :1099~1120
38 Barbara A Anderson . Crisis Management in the Australian Tourism Industry: Preparedness. Personnel and Post Script. Tourism Management. 2006,27(1): 1290~1297
39 Marina Novelli. Birte Schmitz . Trisha Spencer. Networks. Clusters and Innovation in Tourism: a UK Experience. Tourism Management. 2006, (27):1141~1152
40 Davies B. Downward P. Exploring Price and Nonprice Decision Making in The UK Package Tour Industry: Insights from Small Scale Travel Agent s and Tour Operators. Tourism Management. 2006,9(2):1~26
41 Melphon Mayaka. John S Akama. Systems Approach to Tourism Training and Education: The Kenyan Case Study. Tourism Management. 2007,(28):298~ 306
42 Zhang HQ.Chong K.Ap J. An Analysis of Tourism Policy Development in Modern China. Tourism Management. 1999,20 (4) : 471~485
43 LiuA. Wall G. Humanre Sources Development in China. Annals of Tourism Research. 2005,32(3) : 689~710
44 Qu R.Ennew C. Sinclair MT. The Impact of Regulation and Ownership Structure on Market Orientation in the Tourism Industry in China.Tourism Management. 2005,26(6): 939~950
45 Jackson J. Developing Regional Tourism in China: the Potential for Activating Business Clusters in a Socialist Market Economy. Tourism Management. 2006, 27(4): 695~706
46 Frechtling, D.C.Tourism Economic Impact Models. InS.F.Witt, and L. Moutinho, ed. , Tourism Marketing and Management Handbook. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall. 1994: 488~496
47 United Nations Statistics Division, the Statistical Office of the European Communities, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the World Tourism Organization. Tourism Satellite Account: RecommendedMethodological Framework. New York: 2008.
48 Commission Of The European Communities, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development,United Nations and World Tourism Organization. Tourism Satellite Account: Recommended Methodological Framework. New York: 2001
49 United Nations Statistics Division, the Statistical Office of the European Communities, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the World Tourism Organization. International Recommendations for Tourism Statistics. New York: 2008
50 Frechtling, D. C. The Tourism Satellite Account: Foundations, Progress and Issues. Tourism Management. 1999, 20 (1): 163~170
51 Sharma, A., Olsen, M. D. Tourism Satelliteaccounts: Implementation in Tanzania. Annals of Tourism Research. 2005, 32(2): 367~385
52 Stephen L. J. Smith. Broadening the View points of Tourism Measurement. China Statistics Press. 2004 (12): 12~19
53 Chen, K. - Y., Wang, C. - H. Support Vector Regression with Genetic Algorithms in Forecasting Tourism Demand. Tourism Management. 2007, 28(1): 215~ 226
54 General Guidelines for National Tourism Administrations (NTAs). Relative to the Development of the Tourism Satellite Account (TSA). Enzo Pzci Papers on Measuring the Economic Significance of Tourism, World Tourism Organization. 2002: 77~80
55 Tourism Satellite Account Project. Enzo Pzci Papers on Measuring the Economic Significance of Tourism, World Tourism Organization, 2002: 61~75
56 Tourism Satellite Account: Recommended Methodological Framework. New York: United Nations Publication. 2001,9(1)
57楚义芳.旅游的空间经济分析.西安:陕西人民出版社. 1992
58彭华,钟韵.关于旅游开发与城市建设一体化初探.经济地理. 1999,19 (1): 111~ 115
59彭华.试论经济中心城市旅游发展的商务主导模式.地理科学. 1999, 19(2): 140~146
60张辉.对中国旅游发展道路的重新认识.西北大学学报(哲学社会科学版). 1995,(3):119~122
61张凌云.试论有关旅游产业在地区经济发展中地位和产业政策的几个问题.旅游学刊. 2000, (1):10~14
62张凌云.我国旅行社行业规模的理论与实践.旅游学刊. 1996,(6) :5~10
63杜江.论民族饭店集团的市场基础与发展模式.旅游科学. 1999,(4):1~5
64邹统钎.中国饭店企业集团化战略:发展模式与政策导向.旅游学刊. 1999, (4):13~16
65杜江.旅游企业跨国经营战略研究.北京:旅游教育出版社. 2002
66张晓明.何滢.我国饭店业绩效评价的方法创新及应用研究.西北大学学报(哲学社会科学版). 2006, (5): 39~43
67王起静.旅游产业经济学.北京:北京大学出版社. 2006: 363
68田里,牟红.旅游经济学.北京清华大学出版社. 2007: 373
69冯丽萍.旅游经济学.北京:北京大学出版社. 2008: 193
70郑少林.我国旅游产业经济研究综述.经济研究导刊. 2006, (5):152~154
71凌强.日本政府主导型旅游发展模式及其政策措施与成效.世界地理研究. 2008, (9):150~157
72马波.转型:中国旅游产业发展的趋势与选择.旅游学刊. 1999, (6):34~38
73寇亚爱.促进旅游业发展的途径:政府主导.地域间协作.中国第三产业. 2000, (2):30~31
74田钊平,胡丹.试论我国旅游产业化的战略选择.贵州民族学院学报(哲社版).2000,(增刊):13~15
75黄晨晨.西部开发:旅游先行.效益先行——论西部大开发中旅游业的地位和发展模式.旅游学刊. 2000, (4): 43~46
76郝索.论我国旅游产业的市场化发展与政府行为.旅游学刊. 2001, (2): 19~22
77张跃西.后发展地区旅游产业发展战略研究——以贵州省为例.长江流域资源与环境. 2001,(3):211~215
78唐留雄.旅游产业经济学.广州:广东旅游出版社. 2001
79纳尔逊,温特.经济变迁的演化理论.北京:商务印书馆. 1982
80 Yang Chi-Tsai. Y., Bin-Shiang. L., Flowring Technology. Taiwan, Shung-Bin. Y. and Feng-Jian. W. An Intelligent and Personalized Enterprise Process Portal The Workflow Handbook 2004: 4~5
81 Witt. S.. C. Witt. Forecasting Tourism Demand: A Review of Empirical Research. International. Journal of Forecasting. 1995,(11): 447~475
82 Kant. Critique of teleological judgment. By Werner S. Pluhar. Reprinted form the Englishedition by Hackett Publishing Company.1987: 253
83 H.Haken.Information and Self-Organization:A Macroscopic Appoach toComplex Systems.Springer-Verlag. l988: 11
84吴彤.自组织方法论研究.清华大学出版社. 2001: 20~34
85沈小峰.普利高津与耗散结构理论.陕西科学技术出版社. 1998: 51~89
86 M.Mamei. R. Menezes. R.Tolksdorf. F. Zambonelli. Case Studies for Self-organization in Computer Science. Journal of Systems Architecture. 2006, 52(8): 443~460
87 W.M.Haddad. Q.Hui. Complexity. Robustness. Self-organization. Swarms. and System Thermodynamics. Decision and Control. 2007 46th IEEE Conference on. Atlanta. 2007: 720~725
88 T.Reichenbach. M. Mobilia. E Frey. Self-organization of Mobile Populations in Cyclic Competition. Journal of Theoretical Biology. 2008,254(2): 368~383
89 H.Ren. H.I. Honolulu. F.F. Jin. JS Kug. Dynamical Self-Organization Processes for NAO. 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change. Hawaii. 2009: 789~798
90 R.W. Rycroft. D.E. Kash. Self-organizing Innovation Networks: Implications for Globaliztion. Technovation. 2004, 24(3):187~197
91 Z.G. Zhang. Application of Self-organization Theory in Flexible Manufacturing System. China-USA Business Review. 2007,6(1): 77~81
92 U. Witt.Self-organization and Economics-what is New? Structural Change and Economic Dynamics. 1997, 8(4): 489~507
93 SE Page. Advances in Self-Organization and Evolutionary Economics.. Journal of Economic Literature. 2000, 135(3):134~142
94 V.A. Bulanichev. L.A. Serkov. Self-organization of Economics Systems with Determined Chaos. Matematicheskoe Modelirovanie. 2007,19(4): 116~126
95 Nicolis.G. and I. Prigogine. Exploring Complexity. Piper. 1985
96 Anderson P W. Arrow K J. Pines D. The Economy as an Evolving Complex System. New York:Addison-Wesley. 1988
97王子龙,谭清美.许萧迪.区域经济系统演化的自组织机制研究.财贸研究. 2005, (6):5~9
98郭利平.产业集群成长的自组织和演化经济学分析.企业经济. 2007,(6): 52~ 55
99王冰,张军.市场运行和演化的自组织理论探析.湖北经济学院学报. 2006, 4(5): 50~54
100杨建民,张宁.复杂网络演化的自组织现象.上海理工大学学报. 2005,27(5): 413~416
101孙冰.企业自主创新动力系统的协同论解释.商业经济与管理. 2008, (4): 33~37
102戴跃强,侯合银,达庆利.企业技术创新体系的自组织机制分析.科技管理研究. 2008, (8): 6~8
103邹昊飞,夏国平,杨方廷.基于自组织算法的改进型GAANN预测模型.中国管理科学. 2005,13(6): 75~80
104 (德)赫尔曼·哈肯.协同学——大自然构成的奥秘.上海:上海译文出版社. 2001
105薛伟江.社会基本矛盾运动原理的科学内涵.学术论坛. 2004,(3):23~27
106宋毅,何国祥.耗散结构论.北京:中国展望出版社. 1986
107李崇阳,王龙妹.试论经济社会系统不可逆熵增与可持续发展.宁夏工学院学报:自然科学版. 1997, (9):1~4
108程瑜.产业经济学:西方的发展与我国的借鉴.经济师. 2007, (4):89~90
109藏旭恒.产业经济学理论与问题研究.北京:经济管理出版社. 2000
110乔治斯蒂格勒.产业组织.上海三联书店.上海人民出版社. 2006
111李孟刚,蒋志敏.产业经济学.高等教育出版社. 2008:1~5
112李孟刚,蒋志敏.产业经济学理论发展综述.中国流通经济. 2009, (4):30~32
113 Porter. M. E.. Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries Andcompetitors. New York: The Free Press. 1980
114 Scherer. F. M. and Ross. Industrial Market Structure and Economic Performance. 3rd ed. (Chicago: Rand McNally). 1990
115杨治.产业经济学导论.北京:中国人民大学出版社. 1988: 51
116孙遇春,金麒,苏东水.加入WTO对中国汽车产业的影响.复旦学报. 2000 (1): 59~63
117 Robinson Gertrude Maud. Robinson Robert. A Survey of Anthocyanins: Notes on the Distribution of Leuco-anthocyanins. Biochem J. 1933,27(1):206~212
118 Cooper. Chris and Rebecca Shepherd. Tourism Education and the Tourism Industry: Implications for Tourism Education. Tourism Recreation Research. 1997,22:35~48
119 Porter. M. E.. Competitive strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors. New York: The Free Press. 1980
120 Timothy W. Olsen. Md. Sarah Y. Aaberg.Dayle H. Geroski. Phd. and Henry F. Edelhauser. PHD. Human Sclera: Thickness and Surface Area. AmericanJournal of Ophthalmology. 1998,125:237~241
121芮明杰.现代企业持续发展理论与策略.清华大学出版社. 2005
122平狄克.鲁宾费尔德.微观经济学.张军译.北京:中国人民大学出版社. 2000
123 Tang O. Teunter R. Economic Lot Scheduling Problem with Returns. Production and Operations Management. 2006,15(4): 488~497
124王述英,白雪洁,杜传忠主编.产业经济学.经济科学出版社. 2006
125艾仁智.自组织理论与城市商业银行发展.金融研究. 2005,(6):107~115
126曾华,王恒山.企业知识管理系统的自组织分析与演化模型.商业研究. 2006,(23):77~75
127牟绍波,王成璋.产业集群持续成长的自组织机制研究.科技进步与对策. 2007,24(7):73~75
128方琳瑜,宋伟,彭小宝.我国中小企业自主知识产权成长的自组织机制研究.科学学与科学技术管理. 2008, (9):5~9
129张建坤,罗为东.基于自组织理论的房地产演化动力研究.华东经济研究. 2010,24(1): 90~93
130咎廷全.产业经济系统研究.北京:科学出版社. 2002
131王欣,靖继鹏.吉林省信息产业测度分析.情报科学. 2009,(12):433~444
132王雪莲,汪波.基于协同学理论的城市土地利用协调发展研究.中国地质大学学报(社会科学版).2007, (1):63~67
133李子奈.计量经济学模型方法论的若干问题.经济学动态. 2007,(10): 1~13
134沈小峰,吴彤,曾国屏.自组织的哲学——一种新的自然观和科学观.北京:中共中央党校出版社. 1993
135哈肯.协同学导论.北京:原子能出版社. 1986: 403
136庞永,赵艳萍.基于序参量的企业协同趋向分析.中国管理信息化. 2007, (11): 49~51
137纳尔逊.温特.经济变迁的演化理论.北京:商务印书馆. 1997
138闫波.东亚经济持续快速增长的原因探讨.国际经贸论坛. 2007, (4):26~28
139唐顺铁.旅游目的地的社区化及社区旅游研究.地理研究. 1998,(2):145~149
140马勇,周宵. WTO与中国旅游产业发展新论.科学出版社. 2003: 32
141厉新建,张辉.旅游经济学:理论与发展.大连:东北财经大学出版社. 2002: 137
142刘建波,李柏洲.企业进化系统的序参量探讨.中国科技论坛. 2005, (4): 85~87
143王大悟,魏小安.新编旅游经济学.上海人民出版社. 2000
144国家旅游局.旅游课题成果精选:中国旅游产业发展的国际比较.北京:中国旅游出版社. 2008: 34~39
145王起静.市场作用、政府行为与我国旅游产业的发展.北京第二外国语学院学报. 2005, (1):20~25
146赵新峰.政府主导型旅游发展战略的实施内容.经济论坛. 2004,(3):35~36
147中国旅游协会.中国旅游体制改革.北京中国旅游出版社. 1986:75
148章尚正.政府主导型旅游发展战略的必然转化.旅游科学. 2002, (1):5~8
149熊元斌.旅游业、政府主导与公共营销.武汉大学出版社. 2008:126
150孙厚琴.旅游经济学.立信会计出版社. 2003: 139
151西宝.管理科学研究方法.高等教育出版社. 2008
152郭志刚.社会统计分析方法——SPSS软件应用.中国人民大学出版社. 1999: 17~25 44~45 84~90 91~101
153 F. Hair. R. E. Anderson. W. C. Black. Multivariate Data Analysis. New Jersey: Prentice Hall. 1998: 46~85
2林毅夫.任若恩.东亚经济增长模式相关争论的再探讨.经济研究. 2007, (8): 4~12
3 Kanishka Jayasuriya. Political Economy of Demo Cratizationin East Asia. Asian Perspective. 1994, 1(2): 146
4夏爽,赵元兵.东亚奇迹的经验教训及其启示.兰州学刊. 2006. (5): 157~ 158 179
5全毅.论东亚发展模式的内涵与基本特征.亚太经济. 2008, (5) :13~18
6任仲平.决定现代化命运的重大抉择.人民网. 2010. 3
7 Herbert A.Simon.Models of Bounded Rationality.Economic Analysis and Public Policy.1982. 1
8 Aimen A. Alchian. Uncertainty. Evolution. and Economic Theory. The Journal of Political Economy. 1950, 58(3): 211~221
9普利高津.从混沌到有序.上海译文出版社. 1987: 2~8
10邵琪伟.旅游科研课题成果选.北京:中国旅游出版社. 2008
11 Burkart. A J.. S. Medlik. Tourism Past. Present and Future. London: Cox and Wyman Ltd
12 Brian Archer. Director. Domestic Tourism as a Development Factor. Annals of Tourism Research. 1978,5(1):126~141
13 Pye. E. A.. Lin. T. B.Tourism in Asia: the Economic Impact. Canada: Singapore University Press for International Development Research Centre. 1983: 4
14 Bruner. Edward M.‘Transformation of Self in Tourism’. Annals of Tourism Research. 1991,18(2):38~50
15 Lanfant. M. International Tourism Resists the Crisis. In Leisure and Life-style. London: Sage. 1989:178~193
16 Sargent J. R. et al. Report of the Tripartite Economic Survey of the East Caribbean. London:H.M.S. 1967
17 Bryden J.. M.Faber. Multiplying the Tourist Multiplier. Social and Economic Studies. 1971,20: 61~82
18 Bryden.J. Tourism and Development: A Case Study of the Common wealthCaribbean. Cambridge: University Press. 1973
19 T. Hills and J. Lundgren. The Impact of Tourism in the Caribbean: a Methodological Study. Annals of Tourism Research. 1977, 4(5): 248~267
20 De Kadt. E. Tourism Passport to Development. New York: Oxford University Press. 1979
21 Britton. S. G. The Spatial Organisation of Tourism in a Neo-Colonial Economy: A Fiji Case Study. Pacific Viewpoint. 1980, 21:144~165
22 Husbands. W.. Centres. Peripheries. Tourism and Socio-spatial Development. Ontario Geography. 1981,173: 7~11
23 Debbage. K. Oligopoly and The Resort Cycle in the Bahamas. Annals of Tourism Research. 1990, 17:513~527
24 Gunn. C. A. Tourism Planning (2nd ed.). New York: Taylor and Francis. 1988
25 Pearce. D. G.. Tourist Development (2nd ed.). Harlow: Longman and New York: Wiley. 1989
26 Pearce.D.G.. R.M.Kirk. Carrying Capacities for Coastal Tourism. Industry and Environment. 1989,9(1): 3~7
27 Smith. S. L. J. Comments on“Tourist Space and Tourist Attraction”. Leisure Sciences. 1989,(7):65~71
28 Din. K. H.. Bumiputra Entrepreneurship in the Penang-Langkawi Tourist Industry. Unpublished PhD dissertation. University of Hawaii. 1990
29 Bull. A. The Economics of Travel and Tourism. Melbourne: Longman Cheshire. 1991
30 Inskeep E. Tourism Planning: An Integrated and Sustainable Development Approach. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold. 1991
31 Veal. A. Research Methods for Leisure and Tourism: A Practical Guide. Harlow: Longman. 1993
32 D Hart serre A. Lesson in managerial destination competitiveness in the case of Foxwoods Casino resor. Tourism Management. 2000,21 (1) :23~32
33 John Ap. Kevin K F Wong. Case study on tour guiding: Professionalism. Issues and Problems. Tourism Management. 2001,22 (2) :551~563
34 Kim C. Destination Competitiveness: Determinants and Indicators. Current Issues in Tourism. 2003,6(5): 369~414
35 Enright M J . Newton J. Determinants of Tourism Destination Competitiveness in Asia Pacific: Comprehensiveness and universality. J ournal of TravelResearch. 2005,43 (1) :339~350
36 Riliang Qu. Chri stine Ennew. M Thea Sinclair. The Impact of Regulation and Ownership Structure on Market Orientation in the Touri Sm Industry in China. Tourism Management. 2005,26 (1) : 939
37 Adam Blake M. Thea Sinclair. Juan Antonio Campos Soria. Tourism productivity evidence from the United Kingdom. Annals of Tourism Research. 2006,33 (4) :1099~1120
38 Barbara A Anderson . Crisis Management in the Australian Tourism Industry: Preparedness. Personnel and Post Script. Tourism Management. 2006,27(1): 1290~1297
39 Marina Novelli. Birte Schmitz . Trisha Spencer. Networks. Clusters and Innovation in Tourism: a UK Experience. Tourism Management. 2006, (27):1141~1152
40 Davies B. Downward P. Exploring Price and Nonprice Decision Making in The UK Package Tour Industry: Insights from Small Scale Travel Agent s and Tour Operators. Tourism Management. 2006,9(2):1~26
41 Melphon Mayaka. John S Akama. Systems Approach to Tourism Training and Education: The Kenyan Case Study. Tourism Management. 2007,(28):298~ 306
42 Zhang HQ.Chong K.Ap J. An Analysis of Tourism Policy Development in Modern China. Tourism Management. 1999,20 (4) : 471~485
43 LiuA. Wall G. Humanre Sources Development in China. Annals of Tourism Research. 2005,32(3) : 689~710
44 Qu R.Ennew C. Sinclair MT. The Impact of Regulation and Ownership Structure on Market Orientation in the Tourism Industry in China.Tourism Management. 2005,26(6): 939~950
45 Jackson J. Developing Regional Tourism in China: the Potential for Activating Business Clusters in a Socialist Market Economy. Tourism Management. 2006, 27(4): 695~706
46 Frechtling, D.C.Tourism Economic Impact Models. InS.F.Witt, and L. Moutinho, ed. , Tourism Marketing and Management Handbook. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall. 1994: 488~496
47 United Nations Statistics Division, the Statistical Office of the European Communities, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the World Tourism Organization. Tourism Satellite Account: RecommendedMethodological Framework. New York: 2008.
48 Commission Of The European Communities, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development,United Nations and World Tourism Organization. Tourism Satellite Account: Recommended Methodological Framework. New York: 2001
49 United Nations Statistics Division, the Statistical Office of the European Communities, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the World Tourism Organization. International Recommendations for Tourism Statistics. New York: 2008
50 Frechtling, D. C. The Tourism Satellite Account: Foundations, Progress and Issues. Tourism Management. 1999, 20 (1): 163~170
51 Sharma, A., Olsen, M. D. Tourism Satelliteaccounts: Implementation in Tanzania. Annals of Tourism Research. 2005, 32(2): 367~385
52 Stephen L. J. Smith. Broadening the View points of Tourism Measurement. China Statistics Press. 2004 (12): 12~19
53 Chen, K. - Y., Wang, C. - H. Support Vector Regression with Genetic Algorithms in Forecasting Tourism Demand. Tourism Management. 2007, 28(1): 215~ 226
54 General Guidelines for National Tourism Administrations (NTAs). Relative to the Development of the Tourism Satellite Account (TSA). Enzo Pzci Papers on Measuring the Economic Significance of Tourism, World Tourism Organization. 2002: 77~80
55 Tourism Satellite Account Project. Enzo Pzci Papers on Measuring the Economic Significance of Tourism, World Tourism Organization, 2002: 61~75
56 Tourism Satellite Account: Recommended Methodological Framework. New York: United Nations Publication. 2001,9(1)
57楚义芳.旅游的空间经济分析.西安:陕西人民出版社. 1992
58彭华,钟韵.关于旅游开发与城市建设一体化初探.经济地理. 1999,19 (1): 111~ 115
59彭华.试论经济中心城市旅游发展的商务主导模式.地理科学. 1999, 19(2): 140~146
60张辉.对中国旅游发展道路的重新认识.西北大学学报(哲学社会科学版). 1995,(3):119~122
61张凌云.试论有关旅游产业在地区经济发展中地位和产业政策的几个问题.旅游学刊. 2000, (1):10~14
62张凌云.我国旅行社行业规模的理论与实践.旅游学刊. 1996,(6) :5~10
63杜江.论民族饭店集团的市场基础与发展模式.旅游科学. 1999,(4):1~5
64邹统钎.中国饭店企业集团化战略:发展模式与政策导向.旅游学刊. 1999, (4):13~16
65杜江.旅游企业跨国经营战略研究.北京:旅游教育出版社. 2002
66张晓明.何滢.我国饭店业绩效评价的方法创新及应用研究.西北大学学报(哲学社会科学版). 2006, (5): 39~43
67王起静.旅游产业经济学.北京:北京大学出版社. 2006: 363
68田里,牟红.旅游经济学.北京清华大学出版社. 2007: 373
69冯丽萍.旅游经济学.北京:北京大学出版社. 2008: 193
70郑少林.我国旅游产业经济研究综述.经济研究导刊. 2006, (5):152~154
71凌强.日本政府主导型旅游发展模式及其政策措施与成效.世界地理研究. 2008, (9):150~157
72马波.转型:中国旅游产业发展的趋势与选择.旅游学刊. 1999, (6):34~38
73寇亚爱.促进旅游业发展的途径:政府主导.地域间协作.中国第三产业. 2000, (2):30~31
74田钊平,胡丹.试论我国旅游产业化的战略选择.贵州民族学院学报(哲社版).2000,(增刊):13~15
75黄晨晨.西部开发:旅游先行.效益先行——论西部大开发中旅游业的地位和发展模式.旅游学刊. 2000, (4): 43~46
76郝索.论我国旅游产业的市场化发展与政府行为.旅游学刊. 2001, (2): 19~22
77张跃西.后发展地区旅游产业发展战略研究——以贵州省为例.长江流域资源与环境. 2001,(3):211~215
78唐留雄.旅游产业经济学.广州:广东旅游出版社. 2001
79纳尔逊,温特.经济变迁的演化理论.北京:商务印书馆. 1982
80 Yang Chi-Tsai. Y., Bin-Shiang. L., Flowring Technology. Taiwan, Shung-Bin. Y. and Feng-Jian. W. An Intelligent and Personalized Enterprise Process Portal The Workflow Handbook 2004: 4~5
81 Witt. S.. C. Witt. Forecasting Tourism Demand: A Review of Empirical Research. International. Journal of Forecasting. 1995,(11): 447~475
82 Kant. Critique of teleological judgment. By Werner S. Pluhar. Reprinted form the Englishedition by Hackett Publishing Company.1987: 253
83 H.Haken.Information and Self-Organization:A Macroscopic Appoach toComplex Systems.Springer-Verlag. l988: 11
84吴彤.自组织方法论研究.清华大学出版社. 2001: 20~34
85沈小峰.普利高津与耗散结构理论.陕西科学技术出版社. 1998: 51~89
86 M.Mamei. R. Menezes. R.Tolksdorf. F. Zambonelli. Case Studies for Self-organization in Computer Science. Journal of Systems Architecture. 2006, 52(8): 443~460
87 W.M.Haddad. Q.Hui. Complexity. Robustness. Self-organization. Swarms. and System Thermodynamics. Decision and Control. 2007 46th IEEE Conference on. Atlanta. 2007: 720~725
88 T.Reichenbach. M. Mobilia. E Frey. Self-organization of Mobile Populations in Cyclic Competition. Journal of Theoretical Biology. 2008,254(2): 368~383
89 H.Ren. H.I. Honolulu. F.F. Jin. JS Kug. Dynamical Self-Organization Processes for NAO. 21st Conference on Climate Variability and Change. Hawaii. 2009: 789~798
90 R.W. Rycroft. D.E. Kash. Self-organizing Innovation Networks: Implications for Globaliztion. Technovation. 2004, 24(3):187~197
91 Z.G. Zhang. Application of Self-organization Theory in Flexible Manufacturing System. China-USA Business Review. 2007,6(1): 77~81
92 U. Witt.Self-organization and Economics-what is New? Structural Change and Economic Dynamics. 1997, 8(4): 489~507
93 SE Page. Advances in Self-Organization and Evolutionary Economics.. Journal of Economic Literature. 2000, 135(3):134~142
94 V.A. Bulanichev. L.A. Serkov. Self-organization of Economics Systems with Determined Chaos. Matematicheskoe Modelirovanie. 2007,19(4): 116~126
95 Nicolis.G. and I. Prigogine. Exploring Complexity. Piper. 1985
96 Anderson P W. Arrow K J. Pines D. The Economy as an Evolving Complex System. New York:Addison-Wesley. 1988
97王子龙,谭清美.许萧迪.区域经济系统演化的自组织机制研究.财贸研究. 2005, (6):5~9
98郭利平.产业集群成长的自组织和演化经济学分析.企业经济. 2007,(6): 52~ 55
99王冰,张军.市场运行和演化的自组织理论探析.湖北经济学院学报. 2006, 4(5): 50~54
100杨建民,张宁.复杂网络演化的自组织现象.上海理工大学学报. 2005,27(5): 413~416
101孙冰.企业自主创新动力系统的协同论解释.商业经济与管理. 2008, (4): 33~37
102戴跃强,侯合银,达庆利.企业技术创新体系的自组织机制分析.科技管理研究. 2008, (8): 6~8
103邹昊飞,夏国平,杨方廷.基于自组织算法的改进型GAANN预测模型.中国管理科学. 2005,13(6): 75~80
104 (德)赫尔曼·哈肯.协同学——大自然构成的奥秘.上海:上海译文出版社. 2001
105薛伟江.社会基本矛盾运动原理的科学内涵.学术论坛. 2004,(3):23~27
106宋毅,何国祥.耗散结构论.北京:中国展望出版社. 1986
107李崇阳,王龙妹.试论经济社会系统不可逆熵增与可持续发展.宁夏工学院学报:自然科学版. 1997, (9):1~4
108程瑜.产业经济学:西方的发展与我国的借鉴.经济师. 2007, (4):89~90
109藏旭恒.产业经济学理论与问题研究.北京:经济管理出版社. 2000
110乔治斯蒂格勒.产业组织.上海三联书店.上海人民出版社. 2006
111李孟刚,蒋志敏.产业经济学.高等教育出版社. 2008:1~5
112李孟刚,蒋志敏.产业经济学理论发展综述.中国流通经济. 2009, (4):30~32
113 Porter. M. E.. Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries Andcompetitors. New York: The Free Press. 1980
114 Scherer. F. M. and Ross. Industrial Market Structure and Economic Performance. 3rd ed. (Chicago: Rand McNally). 1990
115杨治.产业经济学导论.北京:中国人民大学出版社. 1988: 51
116孙遇春,金麒,苏东水.加入WTO对中国汽车产业的影响.复旦学报. 2000 (1): 59~63
117 Robinson Gertrude Maud. Robinson Robert. A Survey of Anthocyanins: Notes on the Distribution of Leuco-anthocyanins. Biochem J. 1933,27(1):206~212
118 Cooper. Chris and Rebecca Shepherd. Tourism Education and the Tourism Industry: Implications for Tourism Education. Tourism Recreation Research. 1997,22:35~48
119 Porter. M. E.. Competitive strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors. New York: The Free Press. 1980
120 Timothy W. Olsen. Md. Sarah Y. Aaberg.Dayle H. Geroski. Phd. and Henry F. Edelhauser. PHD. Human Sclera: Thickness and Surface Area. AmericanJournal of Ophthalmology. 1998,125:237~241
121芮明杰.现代企业持续发展理论与策略.清华大学出版社. 2005
122平狄克.鲁宾费尔德.微观经济学.张军译.北京:中国人民大学出版社. 2000
123 Tang O. Teunter R. Economic Lot Scheduling Problem with Returns. Production and Operations Management. 2006,15(4): 488~497
124王述英,白雪洁,杜传忠主编.产业经济学.经济科学出版社. 2006
125艾仁智.自组织理论与城市商业银行发展.金融研究. 2005,(6):107~115
126曾华,王恒山.企业知识管理系统的自组织分析与演化模型.商业研究. 2006,(23):77~75
127牟绍波,王成璋.产业集群持续成长的自组织机制研究.科技进步与对策. 2007,24(7):73~75
128方琳瑜,宋伟,彭小宝.我国中小企业自主知识产权成长的自组织机制研究.科学学与科学技术管理. 2008, (9):5~9
129张建坤,罗为东.基于自组织理论的房地产演化动力研究.华东经济研究. 2010,24(1): 90~93
130咎廷全.产业经济系统研究.北京:科学出版社. 2002
131王欣,靖继鹏.吉林省信息产业测度分析.情报科学. 2009,(12):433~444
132王雪莲,汪波.基于协同学理论的城市土地利用协调发展研究.中国地质大学学报(社会科学版).2007, (1):63~67
133李子奈.计量经济学模型方法论的若干问题.经济学动态. 2007,(10): 1~13
134沈小峰,吴彤,曾国屏.自组织的哲学——一种新的自然观和科学观.北京:中共中央党校出版社. 1993
135哈肯.协同学导论.北京:原子能出版社. 1986: 403
136庞永,赵艳萍.基于序参量的企业协同趋向分析.中国管理信息化. 2007, (11): 49~51
137纳尔逊.温特.经济变迁的演化理论.北京:商务印书馆. 1997
138闫波.东亚经济持续快速增长的原因探讨.国际经贸论坛. 2007, (4):26~28
139唐顺铁.旅游目的地的社区化及社区旅游研究.地理研究. 1998,(2):145~149
140马勇,周宵. WTO与中国旅游产业发展新论.科学出版社. 2003: 32
141厉新建,张辉.旅游经济学:理论与发展.大连:东北财经大学出版社. 2002: 137
142刘建波,李柏洲.企业进化系统的序参量探讨.中国科技论坛. 2005, (4): 85~87
143王大悟,魏小安.新编旅游经济学.上海人民出版社. 2000
144国家旅游局.旅游课题成果精选:中国旅游产业发展的国际比较.北京:中国旅游出版社. 2008: 34~39
145王起静.市场作用、政府行为与我国旅游产业的发展.北京第二外国语学院学报. 2005, (1):20~25
146赵新峰.政府主导型旅游发展战略的实施内容.经济论坛. 2004,(3):35~36
147中国旅游协会.中国旅游体制改革.北京中国旅游出版社. 1986:75
148章尚正.政府主导型旅游发展战略的必然转化.旅游科学. 2002, (1):5~8
149熊元斌.旅游业、政府主导与公共营销.武汉大学出版社. 2008:126
150孙厚琴.旅游经济学.立信会计出版社. 2003: 139
151西宝.管理科学研究方法.高等教育出版社. 2008
152郭志刚.社会统计分析方法——SPSS软件应用.中国人民大学出版社. 1999: 17~25 44~45 84~90 91~101
153 F. Hair. R. E. Anderson. W. C. Black. Multivariate Data Analysis. New Jersey: Prentice Hall. 1998: 46~85