基于空间句法分析的城市地价与合理用地结构关系研究
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摘要
随着社会经济的发展,城市用地规模不断扩张,城市规模的扩张一方面对耕地保护提出了挑战,另一方面也使人们对城市内部用地是否节约集约、结构是否合理进行了反思。而城市用地结构的形成和发展,更容易受到各种地理因素和人为活动的影响,当各种因素的作用强度或作用时间达到一定程度时,土地属性便发生变化导致其演变。地价作为综合反映一个城市经济、政治、社会、文化发展水平的重要因子,其时空变化将引导城市用地结构演变。因此,定量分析地价与城市用地结构的作用关系,有助于发挥城市土地利用效益,实现城市用地合理布局,并能为城市管理、规划等部门制定相关方针、政策提供依据。
本论文依托于国家自然科学基金课题“基于地价水平时空变化的城市合理用地规模研究”(2009～2011年,编号：40871053)。从区位论、图论理论及城市用地结构等相关理论出发,引入空间句法分析城市路网集成度(以下均称“集成度”),并借助SPSS17.0软件分别测算1998年和2006年石家庄市地价、用地结构与集成度的关系,建立城市地价变化与用地结构演变耦合模型,揭示二者的作用关系,为充分发挥地价在城市用地结构演变中的调控作用提供依据。
研究结论主要有：
(1)1998～2006年,石家庄市商业、居住、工业地价持续上涨,特别是商业地价涨幅尤为明显；城市各类用地比例构成中,居住用地增加最多,商业用地扩展最快,工业用地逐渐退出市中心。
(2)从城市地价与集成度的相关性来看,集成度的提高带来了商业、居住和工业地价的上涨,地价与集成度之间的相关关系也更加密切,尤其是商业地价与集成度的相关系数呈现显著增加的趋势,其中与整体集成度的相关系数由1998年的0.679上升到2006年的0.891,与局部集成度的相关系数由1998年的0.489上升到2006年的0.712；居住地价与集成度、工业地价与集成度的相关性也均表现为上升态势。
(3)从城市用地结构与集成度的相关性来看,商业用地、居住用地和工业用地的数量和比例的整体集成度、局部集成度的相关性也在不断提高,尤其是商业用地与整体集成度的相关性由1998年的低相关提升到2006年中相关；与局部集成度的相关性由1998年中相关发展为2006年的高相关,即集成度变化影响用地结构演变；居住用地、工业用地与集成度的相关性同样呈现更加紧密的趋势。
(4)1998～2006年,商业用地在城市用地中的比重增长较为迅速,增长率更是高达到326.24%,定量分析商业地价与用地结构演变的相关关系,二者的耦合模型为：Y=0.579X-1.043X2+2.191X3+31.713。
(5)城市地价对用地结构演变的作用机制表现为：地价调节城市用地结构变化、地价引导城市用地结构演变、土地价格调控机制失效将导致城市用地结构紊乱等方面。
With the development of society and economy, urban land scale expanded unceasingly, the expansion of urban land scale, on the one hand, put forward a challenge of cultivated land protection, on the other hand also made people have a reflection of whether the city internal land use be intensive and whether have a reasonable structure. Formation and development of urban land-use structure was affected by various geographic and human activities. When the effect intensity or effect time of various factors reached to a certain degree, land attributes made changes, then caused urban land use structure evoloved.Land price reflected a city's economic, political, social and cultural development level, its temporal and spatial variation was a important factor to guide urban land use structure evolution. Therefore quantitative analysis on land price and urban land use structure, could unlease urban land utilization benefits, realise proper redistribution of urban land use structure, and provide the basis for urban management and planning departments to formulate policies and references.
The paper relied on the Natural Science Foundation Projects "Research on rational urban land-use scale based on the spatial and temporal variation of urban land price level" (from 2009 to 2011, NO.40871053.). Based on the location theory, graph theory and urban land-use structure theory etc., the paper introduced integration density of urban road network (short for "integration density"), by use of spss17.0 software, calculated land price, land use structure and integration density of Shijiazhuang City in 1998 and 2006, established coupling model between urban land price changes and land use structure evolution, reveal their relationships, and provided the basis for urban land price to fully exert adjustive function in urban land use structure.
The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) From 1998 to 2006, the commercial residential and industrial land prices of Shijiazhuang City continued rising, especially commercial land price increased obviously; in the percentage composition of various urban land use, the residence land increased greatly, commercial land expanded fastest and industrial land gradually withdrew urban center.
(2) From the view of the correlation between urban land price and integration density, the increase of integration density brought on the increase of commercial, residential and industrial land price, and the correlation of land price and integration density was more closely. Especially the correlation coefficient between commercial land price and its integration density tended to increase obviously, and the correlation coefficient of overall integration density rose from 0.679 in 1998 to 0.891 in 2006, and the correlation coefficient of local integration density rose from 0.489 in 1998 to 0.712 in 2006; and the correlation between integration density and residential land price and industrial land price showed increasing trend.
(3) From the view of the correlation between urban land use structure and integration density, the correlation between quantity and proportion of commercial land, residential and industrial land and overall integration density, local integration density also continued to improve, especially the correlation between commercial land and overall integration density rose of low correlation in 1998 to high correlation in 2006; its correlation with local integration density rose of low correlation in 1998 to high correlation in 2006, namely the change of integration density effected land use structure evolution; the correlation between residential land, industrial land and integration density presented more closely trend.
(4) From 1998 to 2006, the rate of commercial land grew fast, growth rate reached to 161.65%, quantitatively analyze the relationship between commercial land price and land use structure evolution, its coupling model was,Y= 0.579X-1.043X2+2.191X3+31.713.
(5) Affective mechanisms of urban land price on land use structure were as follows:land price adjust land use structure, land price lead land use structure evolution, the failure of land price regulation mechanism would cause urban land structure disorder.
本论文依托于国家自然科学基金课题“基于地价水平时空变化的城市合理用地规模研究”(2009～2011年,编号：40871053)。从区位论、图论理论及城市用地结构等相关理论出发,引入空间句法分析城市路网集成度(以下均称“集成度”),并借助SPSS17.0软件分别测算1998年和2006年石家庄市地价、用地结构与集成度的关系,建立城市地价变化与用地结构演变耦合模型,揭示二者的作用关系,为充分发挥地价在城市用地结构演变中的调控作用提供依据。
研究结论主要有：
(1)1998～2006年,石家庄市商业、居住、工业地价持续上涨,特别是商业地价涨幅尤为明显；城市各类用地比例构成中,居住用地增加最多,商业用地扩展最快,工业用地逐渐退出市中心。
(2)从城市地价与集成度的相关性来看,集成度的提高带来了商业、居住和工业地价的上涨,地价与集成度之间的相关关系也更加密切,尤其是商业地价与集成度的相关系数呈现显著增加的趋势,其中与整体集成度的相关系数由1998年的0.679上升到2006年的0.891,与局部集成度的相关系数由1998年的0.489上升到2006年的0.712；居住地价与集成度、工业地价与集成度的相关性也均表现为上升态势。
(3)从城市用地结构与集成度的相关性来看,商业用地、居住用地和工业用地的数量和比例的整体集成度、局部集成度的相关性也在不断提高,尤其是商业用地与整体集成度的相关性由1998年的低相关提升到2006年中相关；与局部集成度的相关性由1998年中相关发展为2006年的高相关,即集成度变化影响用地结构演变；居住用地、工业用地与集成度的相关性同样呈现更加紧密的趋势。
(4)1998～2006年,商业用地在城市用地中的比重增长较为迅速,增长率更是高达到326.24%,定量分析商业地价与用地结构演变的相关关系,二者的耦合模型为：Y=0.579X-1.043X2+2.191X3+31.713。
(5)城市地价对用地结构演变的作用机制表现为：地价调节城市用地结构变化、地价引导城市用地结构演变、土地价格调控机制失效将导致城市用地结构紊乱等方面。
With the development of society and economy, urban land scale expanded unceasingly, the expansion of urban land scale, on the one hand, put forward a challenge of cultivated land protection, on the other hand also made people have a reflection of whether the city internal land use be intensive and whether have a reasonable structure. Formation and development of urban land-use structure was affected by various geographic and human activities. When the effect intensity or effect time of various factors reached to a certain degree, land attributes made changes, then caused urban land use structure evoloved.Land price reflected a city's economic, political, social and cultural development level, its temporal and spatial variation was a important factor to guide urban land use structure evolution. Therefore quantitative analysis on land price and urban land use structure, could unlease urban land utilization benefits, realise proper redistribution of urban land use structure, and provide the basis for urban management and planning departments to formulate policies and references.
The paper relied on the Natural Science Foundation Projects "Research on rational urban land-use scale based on the spatial and temporal variation of urban land price level" (from 2009 to 2011, NO.40871053.). Based on the location theory, graph theory and urban land-use structure theory etc., the paper introduced integration density of urban road network (short for "integration density"), by use of spss17.0 software, calculated land price, land use structure and integration density of Shijiazhuang City in 1998 and 2006, established coupling model between urban land price changes and land use structure evolution, reveal their relationships, and provided the basis for urban land price to fully exert adjustive function in urban land use structure.
The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) From 1998 to 2006, the commercial residential and industrial land prices of Shijiazhuang City continued rising, especially commercial land price increased obviously; in the percentage composition of various urban land use, the residence land increased greatly, commercial land expanded fastest and industrial land gradually withdrew urban center.
(2) From the view of the correlation between urban land price and integration density, the increase of integration density brought on the increase of commercial, residential and industrial land price, and the correlation of land price and integration density was more closely. Especially the correlation coefficient between commercial land price and its integration density tended to increase obviously, and the correlation coefficient of overall integration density rose from 0.679 in 1998 to 0.891 in 2006, and the correlation coefficient of local integration density rose from 0.489 in 1998 to 0.712 in 2006; and the correlation between integration density and residential land price and industrial land price showed increasing trend.
(3) From the view of the correlation between urban land use structure and integration density, the correlation between quantity and proportion of commercial land, residential and industrial land and overall integration density, local integration density also continued to improve, especially the correlation between commercial land and overall integration density rose of low correlation in 1998 to high correlation in 2006; its correlation with local integration density rose of low correlation in 1998 to high correlation in 2006, namely the change of integration density effected land use structure evolution; the correlation between residential land, industrial land and integration density presented more closely trend.
(4) From 1998 to 2006, the rate of commercial land grew fast, growth rate reached to 161.65%, quantitatively analyze the relationship between commercial land price and land use structure evolution, its coupling model was,Y= 0.579X-1.043X2+2.191X3+31.713.
(5) Affective mechanisms of urban land price on land use structure were as follows:land price adjust land use structure, land price lead land use structure evolution, the failure of land price regulation mechanism would cause urban land structure disorder.
引文
[1]杨晓娟.1949～2005年中国大城市空间扩张与用地结构转化研究[D].兰州：兰州大学硕士学位论文,2008.
[2]龚义,吴小平,欧阳安蛟.城市土地集约利用内涵界定及评价指标体系设计[J].浙江国土资源,2002(1)：46-49.
[3]杨晓娟,杨永春,张理茜,乔林凰,徐晓桃.基于信息熵的兰州市用地结构动态演变及其驱动力[J].干旱区地理,2008(2)：291-297.
[4]王中.芜湖市城市用地结构演变特征研究[J].国土资源科技管理,2006(2)20-22.
[5]潘乐.城市用地结构与城市功能的研究[J].四川师范大学学报,1999(22)：599-602.
[6]袁丽丽.城市化进程中城市用地结构演变及其驱动机制分析[J].地理与地理信息科学,2005(21)：51-55.
[7]谢鹏程.城市空间结构的动力机制研究[D].西安：西安工业大学,2006.
[8]郑艳东.城市地价动态监测与地价时空分布规律研究——以石家庄市为例[D].石家庄：河北师范大学,2004.
[9]唐焱.城市土地价格及其影响因素的理论与实证研究[M].北京：中国大地出版社,2006.
[10]广东省土地估价师协会,估价师资讯网.全国土地估价师资格考试复习指南[M]广东：广东经济出版社,2010.
[11]李江,郭庆胜.基于信息熵的城市用地结构动态演变分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2002(11)：393-397.
[12]《城市用地分类与规划建设用地标准》(GBJ137—90).
[13]朱东风.城市用地结构与句法结构的相关分析——以苏州为例[J].现代城市研究,2008(10)：60-70.
[14]李小建,李国平,曾刚.经济地理学[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2005.
[15]李毓强.区位论的理论与应用[J].化工设计,1998(5)4144.
[16]马兰,张曦.农业区位论及其现实意义[J].云南农业科技,2003(3)：3-5.
[17]李炯光.韦伯的工业区位论及其对我国区域经济研究的意义[J].重庆三峡学院学报,2002,2(18)：73-76.
[18]罗志刚,裴新生.对中心地理论的反思[J].规划师,2006(6)：80-82.
[19]者吉莲.评述廖什的市场区位论及其在实践中的应用[J].金融经济,2006(8)：134-135.
[20]黄盛,陈超.城市地租理论及其现实意义[J].商业现代化,2008,8(1)：183-184.
[21]付巍,李静丽.城市化背景下马克思地租理论的现实意义[J].金卡工程·经济与法,2010(11)：324.
[22]卢文.在城市化过程中级差地租的分配问题[J].上海农村经济,2002(12)：6-8.
[23]燕子宗,张宝琪.图论及其应用[J].重庆科技学院学报,2007,6(9)：121-123.
[24]杨滔.空间句法：从图论的角度看中微观城市形态[J].国外城市规划,2006,21(6)：48-52.
[25]葛京风,综合自然地理[M].北京：中国环境科学出版社,2005.
[26]贺邵兵,朱德米,周箴.城市系统的复杂性和参与式治理模式[J].宏观视野,2007,(2)：56-58.
[27]杨林红,石晓娜.空间句法分析在城市路网规划中的运用[J].城乡规划与环境建设,2010,6(30)：4-5.
[28]吴成鹏.基于空间句法的城市空间形态定量分析[J].山西建筑,2010,36(25)：48-49.
[29]张红,王新生,余瑞林.空间句法及其研究进展[J].地理空间信息,2006(4)：37-39.
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[40]陈成.地价对城市土地利用的影响研究—以南京市为例[D].江苏：南京农业大学,2006.
[2]龚义,吴小平,欧阳安蛟.城市土地集约利用内涵界定及评价指标体系设计[J].浙江国土资源,2002(1)：46-49.
[3]杨晓娟,杨永春,张理茜,乔林凰,徐晓桃.基于信息熵的兰州市用地结构动态演变及其驱动力[J].干旱区地理,2008(2)：291-297.
[4]王中.芜湖市城市用地结构演变特征研究[J].国土资源科技管理,2006(2)20-22.
[5]潘乐.城市用地结构与城市功能的研究[J].四川师范大学学报,1999(22)：599-602.
[6]袁丽丽.城市化进程中城市用地结构演变及其驱动机制分析[J].地理与地理信息科学,2005(21)：51-55.
[7]谢鹏程.城市空间结构的动力机制研究[D].西安：西安工业大学,2006.
[8]郑艳东.城市地价动态监测与地价时空分布规律研究——以石家庄市为例[D].石家庄：河北师范大学,2004.
[9]唐焱.城市土地价格及其影响因素的理论与实证研究[M].北京：中国大地出版社,2006.
[10]广东省土地估价师协会,估价师资讯网.全国土地估价师资格考试复习指南[M]广东：广东经济出版社,2010.
[11]李江,郭庆胜.基于信息熵的城市用地结构动态演变分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2002(11)：393-397.
[12]《城市用地分类与规划建设用地标准》(GBJ137—90).
[13]朱东风.城市用地结构与句法结构的相关分析——以苏州为例[J].现代城市研究,2008(10)：60-70.
[14]李小建,李国平,曾刚.经济地理学[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2005.
[15]李毓强.区位论的理论与应用[J].化工设计,1998(5)4144.
[16]马兰,张曦.农业区位论及其现实意义[J].云南农业科技,2003(3)：3-5.
[17]李炯光.韦伯的工业区位论及其对我国区域经济研究的意义[J].重庆三峡学院学报,2002,2(18)：73-76.
[18]罗志刚,裴新生.对中心地理论的反思[J].规划师,2006(6)：80-82.
[19]者吉莲.评述廖什的市场区位论及其在实践中的应用[J].金融经济,2006(8)：134-135.
[20]黄盛,陈超.城市地租理论及其现实意义[J].商业现代化,2008,8(1)：183-184.
[21]付巍,李静丽.城市化背景下马克思地租理论的现实意义[J].金卡工程·经济与法,2010(11)：324.
[22]卢文.在城市化过程中级差地租的分配问题[J].上海农村经济,2002(12)：6-8.
[23]燕子宗,张宝琪.图论及其应用[J].重庆科技学院学报,2007,6(9)：121-123.
[24]杨滔.空间句法：从图论的角度看中微观城市形态[J].国外城市规划,2006,21(6)：48-52.
[25]葛京风,综合自然地理[M].北京：中国环境科学出版社,2005.
[26]贺邵兵,朱德米,周箴.城市系统的复杂性和参与式治理模式[J].宏观视野,2007,(2)：56-58.
[27]杨林红,石晓娜.空间句法分析在城市路网规划中的运用[J].城乡规划与环境建设,2010,6(30)：4-5.
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