华南冬半年降水对ENSO循环的不对称响应
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摘要
本文在分析多种观测资料和再分析资料的基础上，利用多种分析诊断方法，对华南冬半年（11~04月）降水对ENSO循环不对称响应的机理进行了研究和探讨，最后引用数值模式的结果对观测资料的分析结果进行了深入分析。得到以下研究结论：
（1）降水观测资料的分析结果表明，华南冬半年降水对ElNi（？）o和LaNi（？）a的响应是不对称的。ElNi（？）o冬半年，华南地区降水明显偏多；但是在LaNi（？）a冬半年，华南地区降水偏少不明显，并且在统计上不显著。对ENSO指数与华南冬半年降水显著相关的贡献，主要来自于ElNi（？）o冬半年期间两者之间的正相关性，而LaNi（？）a冬半年的贡献很弱。
（2）华南冬半年降水对ElNi（？）o和LaNi（？）a不对称性响应的一个重要原因是南海和西太平洋低层大气环流对ENSO的不对称性响应。在ElNi（？）o和LaNi（？）a期间，850hPa西太平洋到南海分别形成反气旋性和气旋性环流异常，因此造成反气旋性和气旋性水汽输送异常。在ElNi（？）o冬半年期间的显著特征是在反气旋性环流异常的西北边缘，南海到华南地区明显的西南风异常，为华南地区输送的水汽异常偏多，水汽辐合较强，造成大气可降水量和比湿的增大，并且这些正异常在统计上都是显著的，造成华南地区ElNi（？）o冬半年降水明显偏多。而在LaNi（？）a冬半年期间，华南处于气旋性环流异常的西北边缘，南海北部到华南地区为东北风异常，减弱了来自南方的水汽输送，出现较弱的水汽辐散，由于水汽输送减弱以及较弱的水汽辐散，华南地区上空大气可降水量和比湿都呈现出较弱的负异常，且在统计上不显著，导致华南降水出现较小的降水负异常。
（3）对于在ENSO循环的不同阶段华南气候不对称的原因，从季节内振荡的角度出发，分析了ElNi（？）o和LaNi（？）a冬半年期间季节内振荡的特点。在ElNi（？）o冬半年，西太平洋和南海海域的海表温度偏低，不利于这个区域对流的发展，对流活动的不活跃导致了动能和对流在季节内时间尺度上的变化很弱。而在LaNi（？）a冬半年，菲律宾附近南海和西太平洋区域偏高的海温分布则有利于对流的发展，对流活动很活跃，造成动能和对流在季节内时间尺度上的振荡也很强。
（4）从ElNi（？）o和LaNi（？）a冬半年期间季节内振荡的角度出发，给出一种华南冬半年降水对ENSO信号不对称响应的物理解释。ElNi（？）o期间，热带西太平洋到南海地区的季节内振荡不活跃，导致西北太平洋反气旋性环流异常造成的水汽输送以及水汽辐合在华南能稳定维持，造成华南降水明显偏多。但在LaNi（？）a冬半年期间，季节内振荡很活跃，LaNi（？）a冬半年期间的西北太平洋气旋性环流异常受到季节内时间尺度扰动的影响，ENSO的年际变化信号与季节内振荡信号相比明显偏弱，使得西北太平洋和华南的年际异常信号不能够得到明显反应，导致与ENSO信号相联系的年际变化在统计上不显著。位相合成结果表明，LaNi（？）a冬半年，南海到西太平洋的季节内振荡异常的活跃导致了850hPa南海到西太平洋的环流异常在季节内时间尺度上不断变化，气旋性和反气旋性环流异常交替出现，使得南海到华南的850hPa上空，南风异常和北风异常在一个季节内振荡的周期内交替出现，ENSO的年际变化信号不能充分显现，气旋性环流异常明显偏弱。因此，热带西太平洋到南海间的季节内振荡强度在ElNi（？）o和LaNi（？）a冬半年期间的差异，是华南冬半年降水对ENSO信号不对称响应的一个主要原因。
（5）利用CFSv2模式的历史回报资料，对降水、OLR、850hPa风场等要素的气候平均态、季节循环及大气季节内振荡的特点进行了分析，对比分析了模拟输出结果与观测结果，讨论了模式对华南降水和季节内振荡的预报技巧。结果表明，CFSv2模拟的降水、OLR、850hPa风场基本上能够抓住气候态的主要特征，模拟和观测的分布型较为一致。CFSv2对季节内振荡的几个主要的活动中心均能够较好地模拟，模拟方差的空间分布和强度也较吻合。对ElNi（？）o和LaNi（？）a冬半年期间的降水、850hPa环流异常和季节振荡的模拟结果亦与观测较为吻合，从数值模式的结果进一步证实了资料分析的结果。
In this paper, the asymmetric impacts of ENSO cycles on the rainfall over southern Chinain winter half year (November–April) are investigated based on observed and reanalysisdatasets by using various analysis and diagnostic methods. And the main results in this paperare examined with numerical simulation. The main conclusions are derived as follows:
(1) The analysis results of observed rainfall data show that the impacts of El Ni(?) o andNi(?)a on the rainfall over southern China are asymmetric in winter half year. It’s found thatpositive rainfall anomalies with statistical significance appear over southern China in the ElNi o episodes. But in the La Ni(?)a episodes, no reverse rainfall anomalies with statisticalsignificance appear over southern China. The statistical significance of positive correlationsbetween ENSO and rainfall over Southern China are mainly contributed by their correlationsin El Ni(?) o episodes, and the relationships are weak in La Ni(?)a episodes.
(2) The asymmetric responses of atmospheric circulations in lower troposphere to ElNi o and La Ni(?)a are the main mechanisms of asymmetric impacts of rainfall over southernChina, possibly. The anticyclone and cyclone anomalies over western North Pacific (WNP)and South China Sea (SCS) give rise to the anomalies of anticyclonic and cyclonic watervapor transport during El Ni(?) o and La Ni(?)a episodes, respectively. In the El Ni(?) o episodes,the important feathers are the obvious southwesterly anomalies along the northwestern marginof anticyclone anomaly over SCS and southern China. The enchanced southwesterliestransport more water vapor to southern China, and the convergence of water vapor oversouthern China increase the precipitable water and specific humidity in the atmosphere. Atsame time, these positive anomalies are statistical significance. It’s one of the main reasons ofpositive rainfall over southern China during El Ni(?) o episodes. But in the La Ni(?)a episodes, the important feathers are the weaker norhteasterlies anomalies along the northwestern marginof cyclonic anomaly over SCS and southern China. The northeasterlies weaken the watervapor transport to southern China, and the divergence of water vapor over southern Chinadecrease the precipitable water and specific humidity in the atmosphere. No reverse rainfallanomalies with statistical significance appear over southern China. Although these physicalelements are changed in opposite direction, its negative anomalies aren’t as obvious as thosein El Ni(?) o period. Above mentioned results are verified by using different methods withvarious datasets.
(3) The possible physical mechanism of the asymmetric impacts of ENSO cycles on therainfall over southern China are investigated by analyzing the differences of IntraseasonalOscillation (ISO) between El Ni(?) o and La Ni(?)a in winter half year. In the El Ni(?) o episodes,the colder SSTs suppress the growth of convective activities over WNP and SCS. Theperturbation kinetic energy and ISOs over WNP and SCS are weak because of the inactiveconvective activities during the El Ni(?) o episodes. But in the La Ni(?)a episodes, the warmerSSTs benefit the development of convective activities over WNP and SCS. So the activeconvective activiites motivate the strong oscillation kinetic energy and ISOs. These results aretested and verified by the results of computing the OLR10~20d and20~50d oscillationvariances and perturbation kinetic energy in850hPa. The correlation relationships amongvarious indices also have similar conclusions.
(4) A physical mechanism is proposed to explain the asymmetric responses to ENSOsignals of the rainfall over southern China in winter half year. In the El Ni(?) o episodes, theISOs activities over WNP and SCS are inactive, which exert little effect on the stronganticyclone anomaly over WNP and SCS in the lower troposphere in the winter half year.Therefore the transportation and convergence of water vapor could be maintained steadilybecause of the existing of anticyclone anomaly, inducing the positive rainfall anomalies withstatistical significance over southern China in the El Ni(?) o episodes. However in the La Ni(?)aepisodes, the active ISOs activities weaken cyclone anomalies over WNP and SCS atintraseasonal time scale. The interannual variation signals of ENSO are disturbed byintraseasonal variation signals over WNP and southern China. The interannual signals related to ENSO are weaker than the signals of intraseasonal variation. Consequently, the interannualsignals over WNP and SCS cann’t be responsed by the atmosphere, the statistical significancerelated to interannual signals of ENSO cann’t be tested. The results of phase composites showthat the active and strong ISOs lead to the emergences of anticyclone and cyclone anomaliesby turns in the La Ni(?)a episode. So the cyclone anomalies cann’t been maintained steadilybecause the interannual variation signals of ENSO are weakened by the signals of ISOs greatly.At the same time, the southerly and northerly anomalies periodically appear over SCS andsouthern China during the period of oscillation. Finally, the asymmetries impacts of rainfall onENSO cycles over southern China are possibly caused by the differences of ISOs over WNPand SCS between El Ni(?) o and La Ni(?)a in winter half year.
(5) Using the retrospective forecasts dataset of CFSv2model, the climatic modes andseasonal cycles of rainfall, OLR and wind in850hPa are analyzed. And their characteristics ofISOs are diagnosed in this study. The simulation output of CFSv2show that the simulatedrainfall, OLR and wind fields match the main feathers with observed dataset. Theirdistribution patterns of simulated and observed coincide in climatic modes and seasonal cycles.The distribution and intensity of ISOs could be simulated in CFSv2. The modeling capabilitiesweaken gradually with longer lead times. The simulated rainfall, circulation anomalies andISOs in CFSv2coincide with observed dataset during El Ni(?) o and La Ni(?)a episodes. Somedeficiencies existing in model need be improved in the future update. The analyzed results inthis paper are verified by the model simulated output further.
（1）降水观测资料的分析结果表明，华南冬半年降水对ElNi（？）o和LaNi（？）a的响应是不对称的。ElNi（？）o冬半年，华南地区降水明显偏多；但是在LaNi（？）a冬半年，华南地区降水偏少不明显，并且在统计上不显著。对ENSO指数与华南冬半年降水显著相关的贡献，主要来自于ElNi（？）o冬半年期间两者之间的正相关性，而LaNi（？）a冬半年的贡献很弱。
（2）华南冬半年降水对ElNi（？）o和LaNi（？）a不对称性响应的一个重要原因是南海和西太平洋低层大气环流对ENSO的不对称性响应。在ElNi（？）o和LaNi（？）a期间，850hPa西太平洋到南海分别形成反气旋性和气旋性环流异常，因此造成反气旋性和气旋性水汽输送异常。在ElNi（？）o冬半年期间的显著特征是在反气旋性环流异常的西北边缘，南海到华南地区明显的西南风异常，为华南地区输送的水汽异常偏多，水汽辐合较强，造成大气可降水量和比湿的增大，并且这些正异常在统计上都是显著的，造成华南地区ElNi（？）o冬半年降水明显偏多。而在LaNi（？）a冬半年期间，华南处于气旋性环流异常的西北边缘，南海北部到华南地区为东北风异常，减弱了来自南方的水汽输送，出现较弱的水汽辐散，由于水汽输送减弱以及较弱的水汽辐散，华南地区上空大气可降水量和比湿都呈现出较弱的负异常，且在统计上不显著，导致华南降水出现较小的降水负异常。
（3）对于在ENSO循环的不同阶段华南气候不对称的原因，从季节内振荡的角度出发，分析了ElNi（？）o和LaNi（？）a冬半年期间季节内振荡的特点。在ElNi（？）o冬半年，西太平洋和南海海域的海表温度偏低，不利于这个区域对流的发展，对流活动的不活跃导致了动能和对流在季节内时间尺度上的变化很弱。而在LaNi（？）a冬半年，菲律宾附近南海和西太平洋区域偏高的海温分布则有利于对流的发展，对流活动很活跃，造成动能和对流在季节内时间尺度上的振荡也很强。
（4）从ElNi（？）o和LaNi（？）a冬半年期间季节内振荡的角度出发，给出一种华南冬半年降水对ENSO信号不对称响应的物理解释。ElNi（？）o期间，热带西太平洋到南海地区的季节内振荡不活跃，导致西北太平洋反气旋性环流异常造成的水汽输送以及水汽辐合在华南能稳定维持，造成华南降水明显偏多。但在LaNi（？）a冬半年期间，季节内振荡很活跃，LaNi（？）a冬半年期间的西北太平洋气旋性环流异常受到季节内时间尺度扰动的影响，ENSO的年际变化信号与季节内振荡信号相比明显偏弱，使得西北太平洋和华南的年际异常信号不能够得到明显反应，导致与ENSO信号相联系的年际变化在统计上不显著。位相合成结果表明，LaNi（？）a冬半年，南海到西太平洋的季节内振荡异常的活跃导致了850hPa南海到西太平洋的环流异常在季节内时间尺度上不断变化，气旋性和反气旋性环流异常交替出现，使得南海到华南的850hPa上空，南风异常和北风异常在一个季节内振荡的周期内交替出现，ENSO的年际变化信号不能充分显现，气旋性环流异常明显偏弱。因此，热带西太平洋到南海间的季节内振荡强度在ElNi（？）o和LaNi（？）a冬半年期间的差异，是华南冬半年降水对ENSO信号不对称响应的一个主要原因。
（5）利用CFSv2模式的历史回报资料，对降水、OLR、850hPa风场等要素的气候平均态、季节循环及大气季节内振荡的特点进行了分析，对比分析了模拟输出结果与观测结果，讨论了模式对华南降水和季节内振荡的预报技巧。结果表明，CFSv2模拟的降水、OLR、850hPa风场基本上能够抓住气候态的主要特征，模拟和观测的分布型较为一致。CFSv2对季节内振荡的几个主要的活动中心均能够较好地模拟，模拟方差的空间分布和强度也较吻合。对ElNi（？）o和LaNi（？）a冬半年期间的降水、850hPa环流异常和季节振荡的模拟结果亦与观测较为吻合，从数值模式的结果进一步证实了资料分析的结果。
In this paper, the asymmetric impacts of ENSO cycles on the rainfall over southern Chinain winter half year (November–April) are investigated based on observed and reanalysisdatasets by using various analysis and diagnostic methods. And the main results in this paperare examined with numerical simulation. The main conclusions are derived as follows:
(1) The analysis results of observed rainfall data show that the impacts of El Ni(?) o andNi(?)a on the rainfall over southern China are asymmetric in winter half year. It’s found thatpositive rainfall anomalies with statistical significance appear over southern China in the ElNi o episodes. But in the La Ni(?)a episodes, no reverse rainfall anomalies with statisticalsignificance appear over southern China. The statistical significance of positive correlationsbetween ENSO and rainfall over Southern China are mainly contributed by their correlationsin El Ni(?) o episodes, and the relationships are weak in La Ni(?)a episodes.
(2) The asymmetric responses of atmospheric circulations in lower troposphere to ElNi o and La Ni(?)a are the main mechanisms of asymmetric impacts of rainfall over southernChina, possibly. The anticyclone and cyclone anomalies over western North Pacific (WNP)and South China Sea (SCS) give rise to the anomalies of anticyclonic and cyclonic watervapor transport during El Ni(?) o and La Ni(?)a episodes, respectively. In the El Ni(?) o episodes,the important feathers are the obvious southwesterly anomalies along the northwestern marginof anticyclone anomaly over SCS and southern China. The enchanced southwesterliestransport more water vapor to southern China, and the convergence of water vapor oversouthern China increase the precipitable water and specific humidity in the atmosphere. Atsame time, these positive anomalies are statistical significance. It’s one of the main reasons ofpositive rainfall over southern China during El Ni(?) o episodes. But in the La Ni(?)a episodes, the important feathers are the weaker norhteasterlies anomalies along the northwestern marginof cyclonic anomaly over SCS and southern China. The northeasterlies weaken the watervapor transport to southern China, and the divergence of water vapor over southern Chinadecrease the precipitable water and specific humidity in the atmosphere. No reverse rainfallanomalies with statistical significance appear over southern China. Although these physicalelements are changed in opposite direction, its negative anomalies aren’t as obvious as thosein El Ni(?) o period. Above mentioned results are verified by using different methods withvarious datasets.
(3) The possible physical mechanism of the asymmetric impacts of ENSO cycles on therainfall over southern China are investigated by analyzing the differences of IntraseasonalOscillation (ISO) between El Ni(?) o and La Ni(?)a in winter half year. In the El Ni(?) o episodes,the colder SSTs suppress the growth of convective activities over WNP and SCS. Theperturbation kinetic energy and ISOs over WNP and SCS are weak because of the inactiveconvective activities during the El Ni(?) o episodes. But in the La Ni(?)a episodes, the warmerSSTs benefit the development of convective activities over WNP and SCS. So the activeconvective activiites motivate the strong oscillation kinetic energy and ISOs. These results aretested and verified by the results of computing the OLR10~20d and20~50d oscillationvariances and perturbation kinetic energy in850hPa. The correlation relationships amongvarious indices also have similar conclusions.
(4) A physical mechanism is proposed to explain the asymmetric responses to ENSOsignals of the rainfall over southern China in winter half year. In the El Ni(?) o episodes, theISOs activities over WNP and SCS are inactive, which exert little effect on the stronganticyclone anomaly over WNP and SCS in the lower troposphere in the winter half year.Therefore the transportation and convergence of water vapor could be maintained steadilybecause of the existing of anticyclone anomaly, inducing the positive rainfall anomalies withstatistical significance over southern China in the El Ni(?) o episodes. However in the La Ni(?)aepisodes, the active ISOs activities weaken cyclone anomalies over WNP and SCS atintraseasonal time scale. The interannual variation signals of ENSO are disturbed byintraseasonal variation signals over WNP and southern China. The interannual signals related to ENSO are weaker than the signals of intraseasonal variation. Consequently, the interannualsignals over WNP and SCS cann’t be responsed by the atmosphere, the statistical significancerelated to interannual signals of ENSO cann’t be tested. The results of phase composites showthat the active and strong ISOs lead to the emergences of anticyclone and cyclone anomaliesby turns in the La Ni(?)a episode. So the cyclone anomalies cann’t been maintained steadilybecause the interannual variation signals of ENSO are weakened by the signals of ISOs greatly.At the same time, the southerly and northerly anomalies periodically appear over SCS andsouthern China during the period of oscillation. Finally, the asymmetries impacts of rainfall onENSO cycles over southern China are possibly caused by the differences of ISOs over WNPand SCS between El Ni(?) o and La Ni(?)a in winter half year.
(5) Using the retrospective forecasts dataset of CFSv2model, the climatic modes andseasonal cycles of rainfall, OLR and wind in850hPa are analyzed. And their characteristics ofISOs are diagnosed in this study. The simulation output of CFSv2show that the simulatedrainfall, OLR and wind fields match the main feathers with observed dataset. Theirdistribution patterns of simulated and observed coincide in climatic modes and seasonal cycles.The distribution and intensity of ISOs could be simulated in CFSv2. The modeling capabilitiesweaken gradually with longer lead times. The simulated rainfall, circulation anomalies andISOs in CFSv2coincide with observed dataset during El Ni(?) o and La Ni(?)a episodes. Somedeficiencies existing in model need be improved in the future update. The analyzed results inthis paper are verified by the model simulated output further.
引文
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