集群式供应链风险形成机理与评估研究
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摘要
集群式供应链是在产业集群的环境里,由若干条供应链交错形成的具有复杂结构的供应链网络组织形式,是目前供应链管理和产业集群研究的一个新热点。随着社会经济的快速发展,集群外部环境和内部运作的动态变化加剧,集群式供应链面对的不确定的扰动因素增多,随时都会面临风险的考验。实践表明,集群式供应链在风险面前往往表现得十分脆弱,集群内企业外迁现象日益严重。因此,加强对集群式供应链风险形成的微观机理和评估研究,是关系到能否更好的防范和控制集群风险,保证集群式供应链正常运作,取得预期效果的关键,此项研究具有很强的理论意义和实践价值。
论文在吸收国内外关于产业集群和供应链风险的研究方法与成果的基础上,综合运用系统科学、供应链管理、风险管理等多个学科的理论以及博弈论、决策科学等多种量化技术,理论分析与实证研究相结合,对集群式供应链风险的基本概念、集群式供应链风险系统的作用机理、集群式供应链风险的形成机理和评估方法进行了系统的研究。论文主要包括以下几方面内容：
1.绪论。探讨了论文选题的背景和意义；完善了集群式供应链的定义,阐述了集群式供应链的基本特点和体系结构；在较为全面的总结国内外有关风险概念、风险管理框架、产业集群风险、供应链风险研究成果的基础上,对该领域的未来研究方向进行了分析,确定了论文研究的方法、技术路线和主要研究内容,搭建了全文研究的基础平台。
2.集群式供应链风险形成的基础理论。综合介绍了利益相关者理论、资源依赖理论及组织生态学理论的核心思想,构筑了本文的理论基础。基于以上理论,分析了集群式供应链各利益相关主体的构成；探讨了资源依赖理论对集群式供应链合作策略选择的指导意义；并提出了集群式供应链种群的概念,对其生态学特征进行了阐述分析。
3.集群式供应链风险的系统分析。探讨了集群式供应链风险的本质和要素构成；对产业集群、单链式供应链、集群式供应链风险因素、风险事件和风险损失进行了比较分析,明确了三者之间的异同；剖析了集群式供应链风险特征；将集群式供应链风险视为一个完整的经济系统,对集群式供应链风险系统含义、组成及结构进行了界定分析；研究了集群式供应链风险系统中各风险主体子系统的作用机理；构建了集群式供应链风险系统关键风险因素概念模型；基于ISM模型揭示了集群式供应链风险因素的层次关系,建立了集群式供应链风险因素的多级递阶解释结构模型；分析了集群式供应链风险形成的非线性和超循环动力学机制；构建了基于集群式供应链风险系统关键风险因素的五大超循环组织,并剖析了每个组织内在的协同机理和耦合效应对集群式供应链风险形成的作用机理。
4.集群式供应链网络风险形成机理分析。基于复杂网络理论,构建了集群式供应链网络结构模型,揭示了集群式供应链网络的拓扑结构特性对其风险形成的影响。基于竞标机制基本原理,将制造商选择偏好与供应商报价相结合,建立了集群式供应链网络单制造商与多供应商的投标报价模型,阐述了供应商报价策略对制造商和供应商保持持续稳定合作关系,规避合作风险的重要作用。建立了集群式供应链网络中单链式供应链跨链间合作决策的静态博弈模型,揭示了集群式供应链跨链间不同的合作行为决策是导致集群式供应链网络风险形成的深层次原因。构建了集群式供应链网络种群竞争和合作的Logistic模型,讨论了集群式供应链网络中跨链间竞合关系的稳定性对集群式供应链网络风险形成的影响。
5.基于网络层次分析—未确知测度的集群式供应链风险评估模型。在分析集群式供应链风险评估实质和特征的基础上,界定了集群式供应链风险评估对象,并选择将网络层次分析法和未确知测度综合评价模型引入到集群式供应链风险评估中。建立了包括非独立的5类23项指标的集群式供应链风险评估指标体系,构建了集群式供应链风险评估模型,以此判别集群式供应链风险状态属性。
6.实证研究。以新疆天山北坡乳品加工集群式供应链为例,首先对其形成机制、运作现状,风险类型、成因进行了分析。然后根据所构建的集群式供应链风险评估模型,进行了实证研究,判别了新疆天山北坡乳品加工集群式供应链风险级别。
7.最后,对本文的主要结论和创新点进行了总结,并提出了今后的研究方向。
Cluster supply chain is a kind of supply chain network with complicate structure made of several interleaving supply chains in an industrial cluster. Currently, it is one of the new frontiers on supply chain management and industrial cluster research.With the rapid development of economy and society, cluster supply chain is probably facing a lot of infinite uncertainties and risk trials at any moment because of acute and dynamic diversifications from its interior system and exterior environment. Many substantial evidences indicate cluster supply chain always behaves frailly in front of risks so that a lot of enterprises leave from the industrial cluster. As a result, it has significant effects on that whether or not risks can be controlled and kept away so as to ensure the whole cluster supply chain can run effectively and achieve the anticipated purposes to hence the research on the microcosmic formation mechanism and evaluation of cluster supply chain risk. This research has very import significance in theoretical reference and practical guidance for the steady and persistent development of industrial clusters in China.
Based on assimilating the research methods and results on industrial cluster risk and supply chain risk of both domestic and foreign scholars, the dissertation synthetically applies the theories of system subject, supply chain management, risk management and quantitative techniques of game and decision subjects. The conception definition of cluster supply chain risk, operating mechanism of cluster supply chain risk system, formation mechanism and appraisal method of cluster supply chain risk have been studies systemically by combining quantitative and qualitative analysis. The main research contents of this dissertation are summarized as follows:
1. Introduction of the dissertation. Discusses the background and significance of the research, perfects the conception definition of cluster supply chain and expatiates its characteristics and structure. Through the systematic analysis and summarizing research work on the definitions of risk, risk management framework, industrial cluster risk and supply chain risk of both domestic and foreign scholars, points out the existing defects of the research has been done and suggests new study directions. The research meaning, target and method of the dissertation are established. The foundation platform of the dissertation is built.
2. Depiction of related theories of cluster supply chain risk formation. Synthetically introduces the core thought of the Stakeholder Theory, the Resource Dependence Theory, and the Organizational Ecology Theory so as to build the theory basement of the dissertation. Based on the theories, analyzes the buildup of cluster supply chain stakeholder, discusses the guidance significance of the Resource Dependence Theory to cluster supply chain's cooperation strategies selection, puts forward the concept of the cluster supply chain species and further moots its ecology characteristics.
3. Systematic analysis of cluster supply chain risk. The essence and factor structure of cluster supply chain are discussed. Risk factors, incidents and loss of industrial cluster, supply chain and cluster supply chain are compared.Their similarities and differences among them are nailed down. Dissects cluster supply chain risk characteristics and defines the meaning, formation and structure of cluster supply chain risk system. The operation mechanisms among risk sub-systems are studied. The key risk factors concept model of cluster supply chain risk system is built. Constructs the ISM model of cluster supply chain risk factors and opens out their hierarchy. The non-linear and hyper-cycle risk formation mechanisms of cluster supply chain are analyzed. Hyper-cycle organization models based on the key risk factors are built and cooperation mechanisms and coincidence effects among the models are discussed in detail.
4. Analysis on formation mechanism of cluster supply chain network risk. Based on the complicate network theory, structure model of cluster supply chain network is built so as to point out network structure characteristics can produce risks. By bidding mechanism, constructs a bidding model between one manufacturer and multi-suppliers combined manufacturer's preference with suppliers'bidding. It explains the suppliers'bidding decision is very important to keep stable cooperation between manufacturer and supplier. A cooperative static game model among supply chains is set up in order to discuss different cooperative decision among supply chains can bring risks for cluster supply chain. A competitive-cooperative Logistic model of cluster supply chain species is built. It sets forth that stability of species competitive-cooperative relation can influence whether or not cluster supply chain risk forms.
5. Cluster supply chain risk evaluation model based on ANP-unascertained measurement. On the basis of analysis on cluster supply chain risk evaluation's essence and characteristics, the evaluation object and method are made certain.23 indexes divided by 5 kinds are selected to form a comprehensive risk evaluation index system.A cluster supply chain risk evaluation model is built. Thus cluster supply chain risk's attribute can be judged.
6. Empirical research. Taking the diary product processing cluster supply chain on the Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang as examples, its formation mechanism,operation state and risk types as well as causes of risk formation are all analyzed. Applying the cluster supply chain risk evaluation model built in this dissertation, an empirical study has been done to judge the risk level of the diary product processing cluster supply chain on the Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang.
7. Finally, the main conclusions and creative points are summarized and the further directions are also presented.
论文在吸收国内外关于产业集群和供应链风险的研究方法与成果的基础上,综合运用系统科学、供应链管理、风险管理等多个学科的理论以及博弈论、决策科学等多种量化技术,理论分析与实证研究相结合,对集群式供应链风险的基本概念、集群式供应链风险系统的作用机理、集群式供应链风险的形成机理和评估方法进行了系统的研究。论文主要包括以下几方面内容：
1.绪论。探讨了论文选题的背景和意义；完善了集群式供应链的定义,阐述了集群式供应链的基本特点和体系结构；在较为全面的总结国内外有关风险概念、风险管理框架、产业集群风险、供应链风险研究成果的基础上,对该领域的未来研究方向进行了分析,确定了论文研究的方法、技术路线和主要研究内容,搭建了全文研究的基础平台。
2.集群式供应链风险形成的基础理论。综合介绍了利益相关者理论、资源依赖理论及组织生态学理论的核心思想,构筑了本文的理论基础。基于以上理论,分析了集群式供应链各利益相关主体的构成；探讨了资源依赖理论对集群式供应链合作策略选择的指导意义；并提出了集群式供应链种群的概念,对其生态学特征进行了阐述分析。
3.集群式供应链风险的系统分析。探讨了集群式供应链风险的本质和要素构成；对产业集群、单链式供应链、集群式供应链风险因素、风险事件和风险损失进行了比较分析,明确了三者之间的异同；剖析了集群式供应链风险特征；将集群式供应链风险视为一个完整的经济系统,对集群式供应链风险系统含义、组成及结构进行了界定分析；研究了集群式供应链风险系统中各风险主体子系统的作用机理；构建了集群式供应链风险系统关键风险因素概念模型；基于ISM模型揭示了集群式供应链风险因素的层次关系,建立了集群式供应链风险因素的多级递阶解释结构模型；分析了集群式供应链风险形成的非线性和超循环动力学机制；构建了基于集群式供应链风险系统关键风险因素的五大超循环组织,并剖析了每个组织内在的协同机理和耦合效应对集群式供应链风险形成的作用机理。
4.集群式供应链网络风险形成机理分析。基于复杂网络理论,构建了集群式供应链网络结构模型,揭示了集群式供应链网络的拓扑结构特性对其风险形成的影响。基于竞标机制基本原理,将制造商选择偏好与供应商报价相结合,建立了集群式供应链网络单制造商与多供应商的投标报价模型,阐述了供应商报价策略对制造商和供应商保持持续稳定合作关系,规避合作风险的重要作用。建立了集群式供应链网络中单链式供应链跨链间合作决策的静态博弈模型,揭示了集群式供应链跨链间不同的合作行为决策是导致集群式供应链网络风险形成的深层次原因。构建了集群式供应链网络种群竞争和合作的Logistic模型,讨论了集群式供应链网络中跨链间竞合关系的稳定性对集群式供应链网络风险形成的影响。
5.基于网络层次分析—未确知测度的集群式供应链风险评估模型。在分析集群式供应链风险评估实质和特征的基础上,界定了集群式供应链风险评估对象,并选择将网络层次分析法和未确知测度综合评价模型引入到集群式供应链风险评估中。建立了包括非独立的5类23项指标的集群式供应链风险评估指标体系,构建了集群式供应链风险评估模型,以此判别集群式供应链风险状态属性。
6.实证研究。以新疆天山北坡乳品加工集群式供应链为例,首先对其形成机制、运作现状,风险类型、成因进行了分析。然后根据所构建的集群式供应链风险评估模型,进行了实证研究,判别了新疆天山北坡乳品加工集群式供应链风险级别。
7.最后,对本文的主要结论和创新点进行了总结,并提出了今后的研究方向。
Cluster supply chain is a kind of supply chain network with complicate structure made of several interleaving supply chains in an industrial cluster. Currently, it is one of the new frontiers on supply chain management and industrial cluster research.With the rapid development of economy and society, cluster supply chain is probably facing a lot of infinite uncertainties and risk trials at any moment because of acute and dynamic diversifications from its interior system and exterior environment. Many substantial evidences indicate cluster supply chain always behaves frailly in front of risks so that a lot of enterprises leave from the industrial cluster. As a result, it has significant effects on that whether or not risks can be controlled and kept away so as to ensure the whole cluster supply chain can run effectively and achieve the anticipated purposes to hence the research on the microcosmic formation mechanism and evaluation of cluster supply chain risk. This research has very import significance in theoretical reference and practical guidance for the steady and persistent development of industrial clusters in China.
Based on assimilating the research methods and results on industrial cluster risk and supply chain risk of both domestic and foreign scholars, the dissertation synthetically applies the theories of system subject, supply chain management, risk management and quantitative techniques of game and decision subjects. The conception definition of cluster supply chain risk, operating mechanism of cluster supply chain risk system, formation mechanism and appraisal method of cluster supply chain risk have been studies systemically by combining quantitative and qualitative analysis. The main research contents of this dissertation are summarized as follows:
1. Introduction of the dissertation. Discusses the background and significance of the research, perfects the conception definition of cluster supply chain and expatiates its characteristics and structure. Through the systematic analysis and summarizing research work on the definitions of risk, risk management framework, industrial cluster risk and supply chain risk of both domestic and foreign scholars, points out the existing defects of the research has been done and suggests new study directions. The research meaning, target and method of the dissertation are established. The foundation platform of the dissertation is built.
2. Depiction of related theories of cluster supply chain risk formation. Synthetically introduces the core thought of the Stakeholder Theory, the Resource Dependence Theory, and the Organizational Ecology Theory so as to build the theory basement of the dissertation. Based on the theories, analyzes the buildup of cluster supply chain stakeholder, discusses the guidance significance of the Resource Dependence Theory to cluster supply chain's cooperation strategies selection, puts forward the concept of the cluster supply chain species and further moots its ecology characteristics.
3. Systematic analysis of cluster supply chain risk. The essence and factor structure of cluster supply chain are discussed. Risk factors, incidents and loss of industrial cluster, supply chain and cluster supply chain are compared.Their similarities and differences among them are nailed down. Dissects cluster supply chain risk characteristics and defines the meaning, formation and structure of cluster supply chain risk system. The operation mechanisms among risk sub-systems are studied. The key risk factors concept model of cluster supply chain risk system is built. Constructs the ISM model of cluster supply chain risk factors and opens out their hierarchy. The non-linear and hyper-cycle risk formation mechanisms of cluster supply chain are analyzed. Hyper-cycle organization models based on the key risk factors are built and cooperation mechanisms and coincidence effects among the models are discussed in detail.
4. Analysis on formation mechanism of cluster supply chain network risk. Based on the complicate network theory, structure model of cluster supply chain network is built so as to point out network structure characteristics can produce risks. By bidding mechanism, constructs a bidding model between one manufacturer and multi-suppliers combined manufacturer's preference with suppliers'bidding. It explains the suppliers'bidding decision is very important to keep stable cooperation between manufacturer and supplier. A cooperative static game model among supply chains is set up in order to discuss different cooperative decision among supply chains can bring risks for cluster supply chain. A competitive-cooperative Logistic model of cluster supply chain species is built. It sets forth that stability of species competitive-cooperative relation can influence whether or not cluster supply chain risk forms.
5. Cluster supply chain risk evaluation model based on ANP-unascertained measurement. On the basis of analysis on cluster supply chain risk evaluation's essence and characteristics, the evaluation object and method are made certain.23 indexes divided by 5 kinds are selected to form a comprehensive risk evaluation index system.A cluster supply chain risk evaluation model is built. Thus cluster supply chain risk's attribute can be judged.
6. Empirical research. Taking the diary product processing cluster supply chain on the Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang as examples, its formation mechanism,operation state and risk types as well as causes of risk formation are all analyzed. Applying the cluster supply chain risk evaluation model built in this dissertation, an empirical study has been done to judge the risk level of the diary product processing cluster supply chain on the Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang.
7. Finally, the main conclusions and creative points are summarized and the further directions are also presented.
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