青岛奥林匹克帆船中心项目风险管理研究
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摘要
随着建设工程项目规模日趋扩大,技术工艺复杂性提高,各类风险也显著增多。特别是大型工程项目,关系错综复杂,其风险管理已经成为学术界和实业界重点关注的问题。本研究从工程项目风险管理理论入手,分析了风险与建筑项目风险的概念和特点,以及工程项目风险管理的内容、程序和目标。根据风险管理的目标和原则,在科学的风险识别、风险分析的基础上,合理选择风险应对措施,制定奥帆中心主要风险因素的应对方案,以减少或避免风险损失的发生。
通过研究获得了以下研究结论与研究成果。
以青岛奥林匹克帆船中心项目为核心,通过分析奥帆中心工程项目风险的具体特征,对这样一个具有国际工程意义的项目进行了风险分类,排列出各类风险的可能因素,讨论了该项目建设中风险管理的目标与方法。对项目所面临的确定风险以及各种不确定的、潜在的风险进行识别、归纳,将复杂的工程风险分解为简单易断的风险因素,建立了奥帆中心风险评价指标体系。
利用基于层次分析法的风险模糊综合评价方法评价了奥帆中心项目。先用层次分析法计算各风险因素的风险度,进行风险等级划分,然后选用模糊综合评价对项目风险进行评价,确定项目总的风险水平,得出奥帆中心工程项目风险程度为“中等”的结论。确定了该项目建设中应重点防范的风险,并进行了风险管理规划,提出了该工程建设风险管理体系与风险防范对策。
根据风险管理的目标和原则,将属于A类风险的设计风险、建设成本的不确定性风险、施工技术风险、材料设备风险、自然风险、市场需求前景等风险,作为风险管理的重点,制定奥帆中心风险应对方案,减少和避免了风险损失的发生。
本研究建议国内工程咨询机构、大型施工企业在风险识别方面要做更多的基础性工作,结合日常工程项目实施过程编制建设工程的风险清单或风险手册。在此基础上加强对工程风险的控制,尽管短期内会增加管理成本,但从长远来看提高了企业的核心竞争力。
With the construction project scale expands day by day, the technical craft complexity enhances, each kind of risk also increases obviously. Specially the large-scale construction engineering project, relates to intriguingly, risk management has already become the key of academic and industrial areas. This research obtained from the project risk management theory, to analyze the risk and the building program risk concept and the characteristic, as well as project risk management content, procedure and goal. According to risk management's goal and the principle, on the basic of the science risk recognition and risk analysis's foundation, choose the risk counter measures reasonably, formulates the Olympic sailing center’s main risk factor to deal with the plan, reduces or avoids the occurrence of the risk loses.
By the research above mentioned, some results and conclusion have been obtained are as following.
Take the Qingdao Olympic sailing center project as a core, through analyzes the concrete risk characteristic of Olympic sailing center engineering project, had the international project significance project to such one to carry on the classification of risk, arranged each kind of risk the possible factor, discussed in this project construction the risk management goal and the method. The definite risk which as well as each kind faces to the project indefinite, the latent risk carries on the recognition, the induction, the complex project risk will decompose into the simple risk factor, has established the concrete Olympic sailing center risk assessment indicator system.
Analysis based on the level of risk evaluation method fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the Olympic Sailing Center. AHP to use in calculating the risk of risk factors, risk grading, and then use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the project risk assessment to determine the total level of risk that the Olympic Sailing Centre project risks associated with the "middle" Conclusion. Identify the projects should focus on preventing risks, and a risk management plan, the proposed construction of the project risk management system and risk prevention measures.
According to risk management's goal and the principle, the study takes the A kind of risk as risk management the key point, such as design risks, the construction cost uncertainty risk, the construction technique risk, material risks, equipment risk, natural hazards, market demand prospect and so on, and formulates the Olympic sailing center risk to deal with the plan, reduced and has avoided the occurrence which the risk lost. This research suggestion domestic project elements of consultation, the large-scale construction enterprise needs to do more foundational work in the risk recognition aspect, combing the daily engineering project implementation process establishment construction project risk detailed list or the risk handbook. Based on this strengthens to the project risk control, although in the short-term will increase the managed cost, but enhanced enterprise's core competency in the long run.
通过研究获得了以下研究结论与研究成果。
以青岛奥林匹克帆船中心项目为核心,通过分析奥帆中心工程项目风险的具体特征,对这样一个具有国际工程意义的项目进行了风险分类,排列出各类风险的可能因素,讨论了该项目建设中风险管理的目标与方法。对项目所面临的确定风险以及各种不确定的、潜在的风险进行识别、归纳,将复杂的工程风险分解为简单易断的风险因素,建立了奥帆中心风险评价指标体系。
利用基于层次分析法的风险模糊综合评价方法评价了奥帆中心项目。先用层次分析法计算各风险因素的风险度,进行风险等级划分,然后选用模糊综合评价对项目风险进行评价,确定项目总的风险水平,得出奥帆中心工程项目风险程度为“中等”的结论。确定了该项目建设中应重点防范的风险,并进行了风险管理规划,提出了该工程建设风险管理体系与风险防范对策。
根据风险管理的目标和原则,将属于A类风险的设计风险、建设成本的不确定性风险、施工技术风险、材料设备风险、自然风险、市场需求前景等风险,作为风险管理的重点,制定奥帆中心风险应对方案,减少和避免了风险损失的发生。
本研究建议国内工程咨询机构、大型施工企业在风险识别方面要做更多的基础性工作,结合日常工程项目实施过程编制建设工程的风险清单或风险手册。在此基础上加强对工程风险的控制,尽管短期内会增加管理成本,但从长远来看提高了企业的核心竞争力。
With the construction project scale expands day by day, the technical craft complexity enhances, each kind of risk also increases obviously. Specially the large-scale construction engineering project, relates to intriguingly, risk management has already become the key of academic and industrial areas. This research obtained from the project risk management theory, to analyze the risk and the building program risk concept and the characteristic, as well as project risk management content, procedure and goal. According to risk management's goal and the principle, on the basic of the science risk recognition and risk analysis's foundation, choose the risk counter measures reasonably, formulates the Olympic sailing center’s main risk factor to deal with the plan, reduces or avoids the occurrence of the risk loses.
By the research above mentioned, some results and conclusion have been obtained are as following.
Take the Qingdao Olympic sailing center project as a core, through analyzes the concrete risk characteristic of Olympic sailing center engineering project, had the international project significance project to such one to carry on the classification of risk, arranged each kind of risk the possible factor, discussed in this project construction the risk management goal and the method. The definite risk which as well as each kind faces to the project indefinite, the latent risk carries on the recognition, the induction, the complex project risk will decompose into the simple risk factor, has established the concrete Olympic sailing center risk assessment indicator system.
Analysis based on the level of risk evaluation method fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the Olympic Sailing Center. AHP to use in calculating the risk of risk factors, risk grading, and then use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the project risk assessment to determine the total level of risk that the Olympic Sailing Centre project risks associated with the "middle" Conclusion. Identify the projects should focus on preventing risks, and a risk management plan, the proposed construction of the project risk management system and risk prevention measures.
According to risk management's goal and the principle, the study takes the A kind of risk as risk management the key point, such as design risks, the construction cost uncertainty risk, the construction technique risk, material risks, equipment risk, natural hazards, market demand prospect and so on, and formulates the Olympic sailing center risk to deal with the plan, reduced and has avoided the occurrence which the risk lost. This research suggestion domestic project elements of consultation, the large-scale construction enterprise needs to do more foundational work in the risk recognition aspect, combing the daily engineering project implementation process establishment construction project risk detailed list or the risk handbook. Based on this strengthens to the project risk control, although in the short-term will increase the managed cost, but enhanced enterprise's core competency in the long run.
引文
【1】于九如.投资项目风险分析[M].北京:机械工业出版社.1999
【2】王永银等.工程咨询概论[M].北京:中国计划出版社.2003
【3】杨海英.风险管理与保险原理[M].北京:北京航空航天大学出版社.1999
【4】徐伟.土木工程项目管理[M].上海:同济大学出版社.2000
【5】Tah J. H. M and Carr V. A. Proposal for construction Project risk assessment using fuzzy logic,Journal of construction Management and Economics,2000,18: 491-500
【6】雷胜强.国际工程风险管理与保险[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社.1996
【7】Irem Dike mnzdoganmetal.A decision support frame work for Project Sponsors in the planning stage of build operate transfer(BOT)projects,Journal of construction Economics and Management,2000,18:343-349
【8】张俊玲.工程项目风险分析及评价研究[D].硕士论文,2004
【9】尹志军等.我国工程项目风险管理进展研究[J].基建优化,2002
【10】陈伟坷,黄艳敏.工程风险与工程保险[M].天津:天津大学出版社,2005
【11】投资项目可行性研究指南[M].北京:中国电力出版社
【12】钱水土,王合军.入世与风险投资[M].北京:世界图书出版公司,2000
【13】国家计划委员会,建设部发布.建设项目经济评价方法与参数(第二版) [M].北京:中国计划出版社,1993
【14】尹贻林,陈通,杨杉.我国项目风险管理的发展趋势[J].中国软科学.95年第10期
【15】卢有杰.卢家仪.项目风险管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社.1998
【16】J.Bowers,Data for Project risk analysis,Int.J.Project Management,94,V.12 (1):9-16.
【17】李晓宇.工程项目风险评价体系研究[D].硕士论文,2003
【18】刘众.投资项目风险估测和风险分析[M].建筑管理现代化.2002
【19】S.Teve,J.Simister.Usage and Benefit of Project Risk Analysis and Management [J],Int.J.Project Management,1994,12
【20】张文俊.建设工程项目风险管理理论分析与实践[D].硕士论文,2001
【21】邓铁军,仇一颗.工程风险管理[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2004.
【22】芮光雨等.项目决策分析与评价[M].北京:中国计划出版社.2003
【23】武永祥.房地产投资分析[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1997
【24】cott E Harrington, Gregory R Niehans.风险管理与保险[M].陈秉正等译.北京:清华大学出版社.2001
【25】中国工程咨询协会.大型土木工程项目保险[M].北京:中国计划出版
【26】J.Berny and P.Townsend,Macro simulation of project risks-a practical way for ward,Int.J.Project Management,93,V.11(4):20l-208.
【27】傅鸿源.工程项目风险评价方法的研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,1995(10)
【28】梅应华.建设项目投资风险分析[D].硕士论文,2004
【29】方东平等.项目承包风险分析[J].建筑经济,2002(8)
【30】张青晖,沙基昌.风险分析综述[J].系统工程与电子技术,1996(2)
【31】周慧玲.风险管理学[M].武汉:武汉测绘科技大学出版社.1996
【32】陈仕亮.风险管理[M].成都:西南财经大学出版社.1994
【33】刘慧霞.建筑工程项目风险评估与施工安全成本分析[D].硕士论文,2006
【34】赵焕臣,许树柏和金生.层次分析法[M].科学出版社.1986:2.18
【35】李宇松.建设工程项目风险管理研究与实践[D].硕士论文,2001
【36】王文松等.现代咨询方法与实务[M].北京:中国计划出版社.2003
【37】肖位枢.模糊数学基础及应用[M].北京:航空工业出版社
【38】高辉,李慧民.工程质量风险的模糊层次分析[J].西北建筑工程学院学报(自然科学版),2002(3)
【39】姜青舫,陈方正.风险度量原理[M].上海:同济大学出版社.2000
【40】杨艳萍.风险投资的风险识别、评估与控制方法.经济师,2003
【41】王增全.业主的风险管理[J].经济师.2001
【42】赵世强.房地产开发风险管理[M].北京:中国建材工业出版社,2003
【43】李定荣,李开孟.建设项目可行性研究[M].天津大学出版社,1995
【44】朱瑶宏.国际工程风险案例分析[J].安徽建筑,2001
【45】乐嘉栋,彭胜林.建设项目投资管理[M].同济大学出版社,2004.
【46】沈建明.项目风险管理[M].北京:机械工业出版社.2004
【47】中国工程咨询协会.风险管理手册[M].国际咨询工程师联合会.2001
【2】王永银等.工程咨询概论[M].北京:中国计划出版社.2003
【3】杨海英.风险管理与保险原理[M].北京:北京航空航天大学出版社.1999
【4】徐伟.土木工程项目管理[M].上海:同济大学出版社.2000
【5】Tah J. H. M and Carr V. A. Proposal for construction Project risk assessment using fuzzy logic,Journal of construction Management and Economics,2000,18: 491-500
【6】雷胜强.国际工程风险管理与保险[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社.1996
【7】Irem Dike mnzdoganmetal.A decision support frame work for Project Sponsors in the planning stage of build operate transfer(BOT)projects,Journal of construction Economics and Management,2000,18:343-349
【8】张俊玲.工程项目风险分析及评价研究[D].硕士论文,2004
【9】尹志军等.我国工程项目风险管理进展研究[J].基建优化,2002
【10】陈伟坷,黄艳敏.工程风险与工程保险[M].天津:天津大学出版社,2005
【11】投资项目可行性研究指南[M].北京:中国电力出版社
【12】钱水土,王合军.入世与风险投资[M].北京:世界图书出版公司,2000
【13】国家计划委员会,建设部发布.建设项目经济评价方法与参数(第二版) [M].北京:中国计划出版社,1993
【14】尹贻林,陈通,杨杉.我国项目风险管理的发展趋势[J].中国软科学.95年第10期
【15】卢有杰.卢家仪.项目风险管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社.1998
【16】J.Bowers,Data for Project risk analysis,Int.J.Project Management,94,V.12 (1):9-16.
【17】李晓宇.工程项目风险评价体系研究[D].硕士论文,2003
【18】刘众.投资项目风险估测和风险分析[M].建筑管理现代化.2002
【19】S.Teve,J.Simister.Usage and Benefit of Project Risk Analysis and Management [J],Int.J.Project Management,1994,12
【20】张文俊.建设工程项目风险管理理论分析与实践[D].硕士论文,2001
【21】邓铁军,仇一颗.工程风险管理[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2004.
【22】芮光雨等.项目决策分析与评价[M].北京:中国计划出版社.2003
【23】武永祥.房地产投资分析[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1997
【24】cott E Harrington, Gregory R Niehans.风险管理与保险[M].陈秉正等译.北京:清华大学出版社.2001
【25】中国工程咨询协会.大型土木工程项目保险[M].北京:中国计划出版
【26】J.Berny and P.Townsend,Macro simulation of project risks-a practical way for ward,Int.J.Project Management,93,V.11(4):20l-208.
【27】傅鸿源.工程项目风险评价方法的研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,1995(10)
【28】梅应华.建设项目投资风险分析[D].硕士论文,2004
【29】方东平等.项目承包风险分析[J].建筑经济,2002(8)
【30】张青晖,沙基昌.风险分析综述[J].系统工程与电子技术,1996(2)
【31】周慧玲.风险管理学[M].武汉:武汉测绘科技大学出版社.1996
【32】陈仕亮.风险管理[M].成都:西南财经大学出版社.1994
【33】刘慧霞.建筑工程项目风险评估与施工安全成本分析[D].硕士论文,2006
【34】赵焕臣,许树柏和金生.层次分析法[M].科学出版社.1986:2.18
【35】李宇松.建设工程项目风险管理研究与实践[D].硕士论文,2001
【36】王文松等.现代咨询方法与实务[M].北京:中国计划出版社.2003
【37】肖位枢.模糊数学基础及应用[M].北京:航空工业出版社
【38】高辉,李慧民.工程质量风险的模糊层次分析[J].西北建筑工程学院学报(自然科学版),2002(3)
【39】姜青舫,陈方正.风险度量原理[M].上海:同济大学出版社.2000
【40】杨艳萍.风险投资的风险识别、评估与控制方法.经济师,2003
【41】王增全.业主的风险管理[J].经济师.2001
【42】赵世强.房地产开发风险管理[M].北京:中国建材工业出版社,2003
【43】李定荣,李开孟.建设项目可行性研究[M].天津大学出版社,1995
【44】朱瑶宏.国际工程风险案例分析[J].安徽建筑,2001
【45】乐嘉栋,彭胜林.建设项目投资管理[M].同济大学出版社,2004.
【46】沈建明.项目风险管理[M].北京:机械工业出版社.2004
【47】中国工程咨询协会.风险管理手册[M].国际咨询工程师联合会.2001