高速公路工程全风险造价确定与控制研究
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摘要
先进科学的工程造价管理是确保工程建设总体目标实现的有力保障,工程造价管理的核心是工程造价的确定与控制。20世纪90年代中期以来,工程项目全面造价管理(TCM-Total Cost Management)是国际工程造价管理学界提出的一个全新课题。全面造价管理(TCM)的方法论包括“全过程造价管理-全要素造价管理-全风险造价管理-全团队造价管理”四个方面。其中,全要素和全风险造价管理是重点和难点。
高速公路工程具有一般土木工程项目特点之外,另具有建设周期长、投资额大、受自然环境影响显著、参与建设主体多等特点。高速公路工程的建设与发展不但代表了一个地区或国家的技术实力和经济实力,其建设管理水平也体现了工程管理水平的高低。我国高速公路的建设过程中存在的诸多问题,如工程造价的“三超”现象,招投标市场不规范,恶意竞争,乃至为降低成本而出现的劣质工程问题,从经济角度上看是工程造价管理的问题。
长久以来,我国工程造价管理界对工程造价管理的模式、理论和方法开展了大量的研究,并取得了一定的成绩,但相对于美国、英国等国家而言还存在较大差距。而且,我国对工程造价管理的研究更多侧重于建筑工程(工业与民用建筑)领域,公路领域对工程造价的研究相对更显薄弱。因而,本文以高速公路工程造价为研究对象,对其风险和全要素集成管理做了全面系统研究:
1)分析研究现行工程计价方式存在的问题和未来发展方向,研究基于人工智能的工程造价估算方法。建立BP神经网络高速公路造价估算模型,并利用模糊数学理论、遗传算法理论、网络集成理论对估算模型进行优化,增强了模型的鲁棒性和范化能力。经实例验证,优化后的估算模型适合于高速公路造价的快速估算。并对工程造价的风险影响因素进行分析,对其识别、评价及概率分布规律进行深入研究。
2)从全要素角度研究高速公路风险造价。应用GERT(Graphical Evaluation & Review Technique)理论研究工期对造价的影响,建立量化分析模型,解析法与模拟相结合对工期和造价优化计算。以全面质量管理理论(TQM-Total Quality management)为基础,研究合理质量成本的确定与控制方法。
3)对造价、工期、质量三大目标进行多目标优化分析。建立基于非支配遗传算法(NSGA-II,Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithms)的多目标求解模型,通过实例验证所建模型进行三大目标优化的可行性。
Advanced and scientific theories and methods of the construction cost management is to ensure that projects achieve the overall objective of effectively. And the cost determination and control is the core of the cost management. Since mid-1990’s last century, Total Cost Management (TCM) is the new research subject in the field of international construction cost management. The TCM includes four elements which are the whole process cost management, the integrated object cost management, the total risk cost management and the whole team cost management. Among the elements, the integrated cost management and the total risk cost management are more difficult and important.
In addition to the general characteristics of civil engineering projects, the expressway projects also has many special characteristics such as a long construction period, large amount of investment, significantly influenced by the construction environment as well as many participating partners. Expressway’s construction and development not only represents the technological strength and the economic capability of a region or a country, but also reflects the level of the construction management. Many issues such as the excessive budget, irregular bidding market, malicious competition and even the poor quality production for lowering the construction cost occurred during the highway construction process. The cause of those problems is the construction cost management on the point of economic feature.
In a long time, persons have made a progress by making a great deal of research about the mode, the theory and the method of the construction cost management. But there are still large gaps between US, Britain and our country. Furthermore, the study of the cost management in the field of highway field is weaker than in the field of building and estate where the study launched widely and deeply. So the paper makes a study of the expressway construction cost. The contents and results of the study in connection with the risk and integrated object cost are as follows:
Firstly, the paper analyzed the issues and the development trends of the existing cost calculation mode. The cost estimate method basing on the artificial intelligent theory was studied. The BP neural network model is established to estimate expressway construction costs. And the model is optimized by using the theories of Fuzzy, Genetic Algorithm (GA), network integration and so on in order to enhance the stability and popularity of the model. The optimized model is verified in some examples and is proved suitable for the rapid estimation of expressway construction costs. And then, the risk factors of the expressway construction cost are analyzed. The identification, evaluation and the probability distribution discipline of the risk factors are studied deeply.
Secondly, the paper studied the construction risk cost of the expressway on the comprehensive point of integrated object. The GERT (Graphical Evaluation & Review Technique) is used to analyze the relation of the time and the cost. The quantitative analysis model is built to optimize the time-cost using the analytic and simulation method. The reasonable quality determination and control method is studied on the base of TQM (Total Quality Management) theory.
Thirdly, optimization analysis according to the multi objects such as time, cost and quality was done. The optimization analysis model adopting the NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithms) calculation method was built. The examples verified the model’s feasibility of the three-objective optimization.
高速公路工程具有一般土木工程项目特点之外,另具有建设周期长、投资额大、受自然环境影响显著、参与建设主体多等特点。高速公路工程的建设与发展不但代表了一个地区或国家的技术实力和经济实力,其建设管理水平也体现了工程管理水平的高低。我国高速公路的建设过程中存在的诸多问题,如工程造价的“三超”现象,招投标市场不规范,恶意竞争,乃至为降低成本而出现的劣质工程问题,从经济角度上看是工程造价管理的问题。
长久以来,我国工程造价管理界对工程造价管理的模式、理论和方法开展了大量的研究,并取得了一定的成绩,但相对于美国、英国等国家而言还存在较大差距。而且,我国对工程造价管理的研究更多侧重于建筑工程(工业与民用建筑)领域,公路领域对工程造价的研究相对更显薄弱。因而,本文以高速公路工程造价为研究对象,对其风险和全要素集成管理做了全面系统研究:
1)分析研究现行工程计价方式存在的问题和未来发展方向,研究基于人工智能的工程造价估算方法。建立BP神经网络高速公路造价估算模型,并利用模糊数学理论、遗传算法理论、网络集成理论对估算模型进行优化,增强了模型的鲁棒性和范化能力。经实例验证,优化后的估算模型适合于高速公路造价的快速估算。并对工程造价的风险影响因素进行分析,对其识别、评价及概率分布规律进行深入研究。
2)从全要素角度研究高速公路风险造价。应用GERT(Graphical Evaluation & Review Technique)理论研究工期对造价的影响,建立量化分析模型,解析法与模拟相结合对工期和造价优化计算。以全面质量管理理论(TQM-Total Quality management)为基础,研究合理质量成本的确定与控制方法。
3)对造价、工期、质量三大目标进行多目标优化分析。建立基于非支配遗传算法(NSGA-II,Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithms)的多目标求解模型,通过实例验证所建模型进行三大目标优化的可行性。
Advanced and scientific theories and methods of the construction cost management is to ensure that projects achieve the overall objective of effectively. And the cost determination and control is the core of the cost management. Since mid-1990’s last century, Total Cost Management (TCM) is the new research subject in the field of international construction cost management. The TCM includes four elements which are the whole process cost management, the integrated object cost management, the total risk cost management and the whole team cost management. Among the elements, the integrated cost management and the total risk cost management are more difficult and important.
In addition to the general characteristics of civil engineering projects, the expressway projects also has many special characteristics such as a long construction period, large amount of investment, significantly influenced by the construction environment as well as many participating partners. Expressway’s construction and development not only represents the technological strength and the economic capability of a region or a country, but also reflects the level of the construction management. Many issues such as the excessive budget, irregular bidding market, malicious competition and even the poor quality production for lowering the construction cost occurred during the highway construction process. The cause of those problems is the construction cost management on the point of economic feature.
In a long time, persons have made a progress by making a great deal of research about the mode, the theory and the method of the construction cost management. But there are still large gaps between US, Britain and our country. Furthermore, the study of the cost management in the field of highway field is weaker than in the field of building and estate where the study launched widely and deeply. So the paper makes a study of the expressway construction cost. The contents and results of the study in connection with the risk and integrated object cost are as follows:
Firstly, the paper analyzed the issues and the development trends of the existing cost calculation mode. The cost estimate method basing on the artificial intelligent theory was studied. The BP neural network model is established to estimate expressway construction costs. And the model is optimized by using the theories of Fuzzy, Genetic Algorithm (GA), network integration and so on in order to enhance the stability and popularity of the model. The optimized model is verified in some examples and is proved suitable for the rapid estimation of expressway construction costs. And then, the risk factors of the expressway construction cost are analyzed. The identification, evaluation and the probability distribution discipline of the risk factors are studied deeply.
Secondly, the paper studied the construction risk cost of the expressway on the comprehensive point of integrated object. The GERT (Graphical Evaluation & Review Technique) is used to analyze the relation of the time and the cost. The quantitative analysis model is built to optimize the time-cost using the analytic and simulation method. The reasonable quality determination and control method is studied on the base of TQM (Total Quality Management) theory.
Thirdly, optimization analysis according to the multi objects such as time, cost and quality was done. The optimization analysis model adopting the NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithms) calculation method was built. The examples verified the model’s feasibility of the three-objective optimization.
引文
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