快速公交运行控制系统关键理论与方法研究
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摘要
伴随着我国城镇化进程的加快，城市规模不断扩大和城市数量的迅速增加，城市人口迅猛增长，交通拥堵逐渐被人们所重视。经济发展也促使近年来私人小汽车的保有量不断提升，交通需求的增长已经给城市交通带来了极大的压力，各种各样的交通问题已经成为制约城市发展的一个“瓶颈”。尽管许多城市已经采取了各种不同的措施予以应对，如增修城市道路，增加立交桥和人行天桥等，在一定程度上缓解了城市交通拥挤问题，但这种供需矛盾的平衡是短期的。随着国家对支柱性产业汽车工业的支持及城市交通设施的完善，人们购买小汽车的数量必然不断增加。显然，道路的增长速度是远不能与车辆增长同步的，因此交通需求与供给的矛盾将长期存在，甚至加剧。
国内外的无数研究成果表明，大力发展公共交通是缓解城市交通拥堵、改善城市交通环境的有效措施。由于快速公交系统具有常规公交的经济、便利、灵活等特点，同时具有轨道交通大容量、高速度的特征，成为提高城市公共交通服务水平和运行效率的最佳选择。因此，研究城市BRT运行系统的关键理论与方法，对于缓解城市交通拥挤、提高居民出行效率、改善交通环境，具有重要的意义。
依托交通运输部西部建设科技项目《城市快速公共交通（BRT）规划、控制与运营关键技术研究》，本文突破传统的BRT运行控制系统理论与方法，提出BRT运行控制系统，并对相关的关键理论与方法进行了研究，具体研究内容如下：
（1）充分分析了BRT运行控制系统的功能需求，给出了BRT运行控制系统的构成，包括其逻辑框架设计、物理框架设计、系统功能划分，等等。研究了BRT运行控制系统的关键理论，为BRT运行控制系统的构建奠定了理论基础。
（2）分析快速公交控制系统的运行状态感知技术，从信息采集、运行状态判别两个方面获取系统实时运行状态，为下文控制策略实施提供数据支持。
（3）充分研究了BRT信号优先控制策略与方法，对突发事件对BRT系统的影响进行了分析，提出了突发事件下BRT运行控制方法。在突发事件下，首先要满足应急车辆和EBRT车辆需求，其次要满足交叉口所有交通参与者的交通需求。在控制模型中，根据车辆检测系统判断优先控制对象的类型来采用不同的控制策略，对应急车辆和EBRT采取绝对放行的原则，对BRT车辆，根据每一辆车的当前运行状态来确定不同的控制策略。以北京市BRT1号线为仿真对象，验证了所提出方法的有效性。
（4）提出了基于客流变化的BRT发车频率控制方法。BRT线路上的客流量在时空上具有不均衡性，因为客流量是不断变化的，在高峰期客流量比较大，而在平峰期客流量比较小，然而，每一天同一站点、同一时刻的客流量具有相似性特点，因此，可以通过历史客流量和当前的客流量，基于RBF神经网络模型对未来时段的客流量进行短期预测，以预测的客流量为基础，构建发车频率模型，并运用自适应遗传算法对模型进行求解。以北京市BRT1号线实时数据验证了所提出的方法的有效性和可行性。
（5）提出了BRT运行控制系统的评价方法。首先建立了BRT运行控制系统的评价指标体系，包括建成前的评价指标体系和建成后的评价指标体系。然后，充分分析了以往的各种BRT系统评价方法的优缺点，对于建成前的评价采用了二级模糊综合评价方法，建成后评价选择基于灰色熵权聚类的方法，并以济南市BRT1号线和2号线为研究对象，对所选择的方法进行了验证。
（6）总结与展望。该部分对本文的研究工作及取得的成果进行了全面的总结，并指出了本文现有研究的不足，对下一步研究工作进行了展望。
With the acceleration of urbanization in China, the scale of city expanding and thenumber of city increasing, the population of urban rapidly growing, traffic congestiongradually drew people’s attention. Also contributed to the economic development ofprivate car ownership in recent years has brought great pressure on urban transport, avariety of transportation problems have become a restricted urban development"bottleneck." Although many cities have taken a variety of measures to deal with thissituation, such as the upgrading of urban roads, increase overpasses and pedestrianbridges to ease urban traffic congestion problems, but this balance between supply anddemand is short-term. Along with the improvement of the pillar industries to support theautomotive industry and urban transport facilities, the number of people buying carsinevitably increasing. Clearly, the growth rate is far from the road and the vehicle growthsynchronized so that the traffic demand and supply will be a long conflict, and evenintensified.
Numerous domestic and foreign research results suggest that to develop publictransport is an effective measure to ease urban traffic congestion and to improve theenvironment. Because regular bus rapid transit system has the characteristics ofeconomic, convenient, and flexible features, but also has a large rail transportationcapacity, high speed, it is becoming the best choice to improve urban public transportservice levels and operational efficiency. Therefore, the study of critical theory andmethod of urban BRT system operation, for ease urban traffic congestion, improve travelefficiency residents, improve the traffic environment has important significance.
Relies on the construction of the Ministry of Transport in Western science andtechnology projects "urban rapid transit (BRT) planning, control and operation of keytechnologies", the paper break conventional BRT operation control system theory and methods, proposed BRT operation control system, and related and methods have beenstudied, the specific contents are as follows:
(1) Full analysis of the functional requirements of BRT operation control system,give the composition of BRT operation control system, including its logical frameworkdesign, physical design framework, system, function, and so on. Study the keytheoretical study BRT operation control system, in order to build BRT operation controlsystem has laid a theoretical foundation Research
(2) Analysis of running state of the control system of bus rapid transit perceptiontechnology, access real-time running state of system from two aspects of informationcollection and running status discrimination, provide data support for the followingcontrol strategy implementation.
(3) Fully study the BRT signal priority control strategies and methods, analyze theimpact by the emergency to the BRT system, proposed the control method BRT runningunder emergencies. In emergencies, we must meet the needs of emergency vehicles andEBRT and the transport needs of all traffic participants in the intersection. In the controlmodel, the system determines the type of vehicle according to the detection object to thepriority control using different control strategies. The emergency vehicles and EBRT arebased on the principle of the absolute release. The BRT is determined the type of controlstrategy according to the current operating status of each vehicle. Take Beijing BRT1lineas the simulation object, the paper demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposedmethod.
(4) Propose BRT grid frequency control method based on passenger change. BRTon the line has imbalance in time and space, because traffic is constantly changing, at thepeak of traffic is relatively large, but in peak time traffic is relatively small, however, thesame site each day, the same time the passenger amount of similarities characteristics,therefore, the current through the history of traffic and traffic, based on RBF neuralnetwork model short-term traffic forecasting future periods to forecast traffic based ongrid frequency model to build and use self-adapt genetic algorithm to solve the model. Beijing BRT1line real-time data to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of theproposed method.
(5) Propose the evaluation method of BRT operation control system. Establisheevaluation index system of BRT operation control systems at first time. Then, the paperanalyzes the advantages and disadvantages of the various evaluation methods in the past.Uses the evaluation method of the secondary fuzzy comprehensive for pre-built, after thecompletion, the paper takes the evaluation method based on gray entropy weightclustering. The proposed method was verified based on Jinan BRT No.1and2lines.
国内外的无数研究成果表明，大力发展公共交通是缓解城市交通拥堵、改善城市交通环境的有效措施。由于快速公交系统具有常规公交的经济、便利、灵活等特点，同时具有轨道交通大容量、高速度的特征，成为提高城市公共交通服务水平和运行效率的最佳选择。因此，研究城市BRT运行系统的关键理论与方法，对于缓解城市交通拥挤、提高居民出行效率、改善交通环境，具有重要的意义。
依托交通运输部西部建设科技项目《城市快速公共交通（BRT）规划、控制与运营关键技术研究》，本文突破传统的BRT运行控制系统理论与方法，提出BRT运行控制系统，并对相关的关键理论与方法进行了研究，具体研究内容如下：
（1）充分分析了BRT运行控制系统的功能需求，给出了BRT运行控制系统的构成，包括其逻辑框架设计、物理框架设计、系统功能划分，等等。研究了BRT运行控制系统的关键理论，为BRT运行控制系统的构建奠定了理论基础。
（2）分析快速公交控制系统的运行状态感知技术，从信息采集、运行状态判别两个方面获取系统实时运行状态，为下文控制策略实施提供数据支持。
（3）充分研究了BRT信号优先控制策略与方法，对突发事件对BRT系统的影响进行了分析，提出了突发事件下BRT运行控制方法。在突发事件下，首先要满足应急车辆和EBRT车辆需求，其次要满足交叉口所有交通参与者的交通需求。在控制模型中，根据车辆检测系统判断优先控制对象的类型来采用不同的控制策略，对应急车辆和EBRT采取绝对放行的原则，对BRT车辆，根据每一辆车的当前运行状态来确定不同的控制策略。以北京市BRT1号线为仿真对象，验证了所提出方法的有效性。
（4）提出了基于客流变化的BRT发车频率控制方法。BRT线路上的客流量在时空上具有不均衡性，因为客流量是不断变化的，在高峰期客流量比较大，而在平峰期客流量比较小，然而，每一天同一站点、同一时刻的客流量具有相似性特点，因此，可以通过历史客流量和当前的客流量，基于RBF神经网络模型对未来时段的客流量进行短期预测，以预测的客流量为基础，构建发车频率模型，并运用自适应遗传算法对模型进行求解。以北京市BRT1号线实时数据验证了所提出的方法的有效性和可行性。
（5）提出了BRT运行控制系统的评价方法。首先建立了BRT运行控制系统的评价指标体系，包括建成前的评价指标体系和建成后的评价指标体系。然后，充分分析了以往的各种BRT系统评价方法的优缺点，对于建成前的评价采用了二级模糊综合评价方法，建成后评价选择基于灰色熵权聚类的方法，并以济南市BRT1号线和2号线为研究对象，对所选择的方法进行了验证。
（6）总结与展望。该部分对本文的研究工作及取得的成果进行了全面的总结，并指出了本文现有研究的不足，对下一步研究工作进行了展望。
With the acceleration of urbanization in China, the scale of city expanding and thenumber of city increasing, the population of urban rapidly growing, traffic congestiongradually drew people’s attention. Also contributed to the economic development ofprivate car ownership in recent years has brought great pressure on urban transport, avariety of transportation problems have become a restricted urban development"bottleneck." Although many cities have taken a variety of measures to deal with thissituation, such as the upgrading of urban roads, increase overpasses and pedestrianbridges to ease urban traffic congestion problems, but this balance between supply anddemand is short-term. Along with the improvement of the pillar industries to support theautomotive industry and urban transport facilities, the number of people buying carsinevitably increasing. Clearly, the growth rate is far from the road and the vehicle growthsynchronized so that the traffic demand and supply will be a long conflict, and evenintensified.
Numerous domestic and foreign research results suggest that to develop publictransport is an effective measure to ease urban traffic congestion and to improve theenvironment. Because regular bus rapid transit system has the characteristics ofeconomic, convenient, and flexible features, but also has a large rail transportationcapacity, high speed, it is becoming the best choice to improve urban public transportservice levels and operational efficiency. Therefore, the study of critical theory andmethod of urban BRT system operation, for ease urban traffic congestion, improve travelefficiency residents, improve the traffic environment has important significance.
Relies on the construction of the Ministry of Transport in Western science andtechnology projects "urban rapid transit (BRT) planning, control and operation of keytechnologies", the paper break conventional BRT operation control system theory and methods, proposed BRT operation control system, and related and methods have beenstudied, the specific contents are as follows:
(1) Full analysis of the functional requirements of BRT operation control system,give the composition of BRT operation control system, including its logical frameworkdesign, physical design framework, system, function, and so on. Study the keytheoretical study BRT operation control system, in order to build BRT operation controlsystem has laid a theoretical foundation Research
(2) Analysis of running state of the control system of bus rapid transit perceptiontechnology, access real-time running state of system from two aspects of informationcollection and running status discrimination, provide data support for the followingcontrol strategy implementation.
(3) Fully study the BRT signal priority control strategies and methods, analyze theimpact by the emergency to the BRT system, proposed the control method BRT runningunder emergencies. In emergencies, we must meet the needs of emergency vehicles andEBRT and the transport needs of all traffic participants in the intersection. In the controlmodel, the system determines the type of vehicle according to the detection object to thepriority control using different control strategies. The emergency vehicles and EBRT arebased on the principle of the absolute release. The BRT is determined the type of controlstrategy according to the current operating status of each vehicle. Take Beijing BRT1lineas the simulation object, the paper demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposedmethod.
(4) Propose BRT grid frequency control method based on passenger change. BRTon the line has imbalance in time and space, because traffic is constantly changing, at thepeak of traffic is relatively large, but in peak time traffic is relatively small, however, thesame site each day, the same time the passenger amount of similarities characteristics,therefore, the current through the history of traffic and traffic, based on RBF neuralnetwork model short-term traffic forecasting future periods to forecast traffic based ongrid frequency model to build and use self-adapt genetic algorithm to solve the model. Beijing BRT1line real-time data to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of theproposed method.
(5) Propose the evaluation method of BRT operation control system. Establisheevaluation index system of BRT operation control systems at first time. Then, the paperanalyzes the advantages and disadvantages of the various evaluation methods in the past.Uses the evaluation method of the secondary fuzzy comprehensive for pre-built, after thecompletion, the paper takes the evaluation method based on gray entropy weightclustering. The proposed method was verified based on Jinan BRT No.1and2lines.
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