我国健康保险公司价值评估研究
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摘要
2005年中国保监会批准成立专业化健康保险公司以来,我国健康保险行业快速发展,市场主体不断增加,各种健康保险产品不断丰富。自2005年4月我国首家专业健康保险公司—中国人民健康保险公司成立至今,又有瑞福德健康保险股份有限公司、昆仑健康保险股份有限公司和平安健康保险股份有限公司相继成立,并有长青健康保险股份有限公司在筹。另外,还有45家财产保险公司和56家人身保险公司经营健康保险业务。
健康保险公司的经营管理需要准确的价值评估。健康保险公司的经营目标是企业价值的最大化,价值评估的结果是对健康保险公司经理人经营管理绩效的量化,合理准确的价值评估结果是一个很好的绩效考核指标。其次,价值评估提供的信息并不仅仅是企业价值一个数字,还包括评估过程产生的大量信息。例如,业务价值是由哪些因素驱动的,销售净利润对企业价值的影响有多大,提高投资资本报酬率对企业价值的影响有多大等等。即使企业价值的最终评估结果不是很准确,这些中间信息也是很有意义的。最后,随着市场主体的增加,竞争的加剧,在未来出现健康保险公司并购的可能性极大。在市场经济的考验下,部分健康险业务经营不善的保险公司也很可能选择通过将其健康险业务整体打包出售的方式来退出健康保险该领域。健康保险的价值评估将是一个不可忽视的问题。基于以上的理由,准确评估健康保险公司价值对我国健康保险行业的快速健康发展是非常必要的。
目前专门对我国健康保险公司价值评估的研究还很少。本文首先对国外健康保险公司价值评估方法进行筛选和总结,认为适合健康保险公司的价值评估方法有三类:市场法、现金流量折现模型和内含价值法。然后按照这些方法的使用条件与我国的现实国情进行比较,筛选出适合我国国情的价值评估方法,即以对我国健康保险公司进行价值评估应以内含价值法为主,适当参考市场法和自由现金流量折现模型的评估结果。同时,根据健康保险的特性,对自由现金流量折现模型进行了修正。在文章最后,运用我国保险公司数据对三种方法的应用进行实证研究。本文的内容和结构安排如下:
第一章主要详细阐述了论文的研究背景、意义、主要思路和研究方法,对与健康保险公司价值评估的相关文献进行了归纳。文章主要采用从一般到特殊的研究思路,根据健康保险与寿险及非寿险共性与个性,分析价值评估理论的产生与发展,研究出我国健康保险公司价值评估的关键在于健康保险特殊性假设和长期健康保险业务的价值评估,只有解决这两个问题,才能选出适合健康保险公司的价值评估方法,正确评估健康保险公司价值。
第二章通过对国外健康保险公司价值评估理论的研究,归纳出目前国际比较流行的健康保险公司价值评估方法:市场法、现金流量折现模型和内含价值法。通过对每种评估方法详细的分析对比,笔者认为经过对健康保险特有参数的设定,内含价值法成功的解决了健康保险价值评估的两个难点,成为健康保险公司价值评估的首选方法。另外两种方法分别从其他角度入手,可以帮助评估者从不同侧面了解健康保险公司价值。
第三章笔者根据上述三种方法的使用条件,着力分析运用这些方法评估我健康保险的可行性。笔者发现目前这三种方法在我国使用都会遇到一些困难,这些困难的存在影响了对我国健康保险公司价值评估的准确性。这些困难中有一部分是客观条件决定的,如我国资本市场的发育程度还比较低,所提供数据的准确性和及时性相对发达国家有一定的差距;我国健康保险还在发展初期,没有上市的健康保险公司等等。这些困难在短期内无法快速解决,只有随着时间的推移,我国资本市场和健康保险行业进一步发展,才能逐步得到解决。还有一些困难是方法本身的,比如自由现金流量折现模型在计算长期健康保险业务价值时会造成一定程度的低估。笔者根据这一情况对自由现金流量折现模型进行了修正。最后,笔者对我国健康保险公司价值评估方法进行了初步归纳与总结:我国健康保险公司价值评估方法应以内含价值法为主,参考市场法和自由现金流量折现模型的评估结果。这三种方法不但可以应用在健康保险公司,同样可以应用在健康保险业务的价值评估上。
第四章由于我国健康保险公司数据采集非常困难,笔者以中国最大的保险公司之一——中国平安为例,根据中国平安2006年和2007年年报的数据,运用市盈率法、自由现金流量折现模型和内含价值法分别计算中国平安健康保险有限公司的价值。通过对结果的比较,笔者发现市盈率法和自由现金流量折现模型的计算结果大于内含价值法的计算结果,笔者对出现这一情况提出了自己的看法与解释。本文的研究目的是寻找适合健康保险公司的价值评估方法并探索这些方法在我国的可用性,实证研究的计算结果有待在以后的研究中进一步寻求解释。
本文选题新颖,有一定的实用性。在选题时跳出了保险专业的局限性,选择了集保险学、会计学等学科结合的健康保险公司价值评估为研究对象。同时,在我国不断加大金融保险业开放力度的背景下第一次对我国健康保险公司价值评估方法进行了初步的总结和归纳,具有较为重大的理论和现实意义,选题具有一定的新意。另外,注重比较、总结和借鉴。在文章的写作过程中,比较了一般企业与健康保险公司的价值评估方法,分析了各种评估方法的优缺点,并在总结和借鉴国外健康保险公司价值评估经验的基础上,根据我国具体国情,尝试提出了评估我国健康保险公司价值的思路及对策,期望能抛砖引玉,为我国健康保险公司价值评估提供一些有益的参考。最后,笔者对运用内含价值法评估健康保险公司时所特有的假设进行了初步的探讨。由于时间和作者水平的限制,本文还有很多不足,笔者会在以后的学习和研究中去进一步完善。
Since China insurance regulatory commission approved the establishment of health insurance company in 2005,health insurance developed with a high speed in China. There are more and more insurance companies and health insurance products. Since the fist health insurance company—PICC health insurance company limit--established in 2005,more and more health insurance companies were established such as Reward health、Kunlun health and Ping an health,Changqing health would be opening soon. In addition, there are 45 property insurance companies and 56 life insurance companies selling health insurance products in China.
With the increasing competition, some health insurance companies will be M & A in the future, and some insurance companies will sell theirs health insurance companies if they are in poor management. So, the valuation of health business is a very important problem. Otherwise, health insurance company’s management need the valuation. To maximize enterprise value is the aim of the health insurance company’s management, the result of the valuation is one of the best performance indicate for health insurance company’s managers. At the last, the result of the valuation is not only a number, but also has other information. For example, they can tell us which factors would affect the whole value,how much would these factors affect,especially when the cost of capital is adjusted. Although the valuation result maybe not accurate enough,the information from the result is still valuable. In a word, it is very meaningful for China’s health insurance development to valuation health insurance companies accurately.
Nowadays, the reach on health insurance companies valuation in China is very little. In this paper, first of all, it summarizes the ways and means of the reach on health insurance companies valuation in foreign countries and divides them into three: Investment banking approach, Free cash flow for the firm and Embedded value. Then it compares them with the realistic situation of our country, and filters the proper ways that the health insurance companies in China should be based on the method of embedded value and make the other two methods for reference. Meanwhile, according to the characteristic of the health insurance, this paper makes an amendment about the method of free cash flow for the firm. In the end, it makes an empirical research about the three methods by the data of insurance companies in China. The contents and structure of this paper as follows:
The first chapter mainly illustrates the research background, the significance ,the main ideas and research methods. Then makes a summarize about the relevant literature to the reach on health insurance companies valuation. According to the general characters and the individual characters of the health and life insurance and non-life insurance, the paper analyzes the development of the theory about the valuation from the general to the specific research ideas, and turns out the importance of the reach on health insurance companies valuation is the valuation of the long time health insurance companies, and the problem that the method of payment mingles with the complexity of the health insurance becomes the most complicated for the assessors.
With the research of foreign health insurance company valuation, the second chapter summarize the popular evaluation methods of the health insurance companies: investment banking approach, free cash flow for the firm and embedded value. Through a detailed comparison of each evaluated methods, the author believes that the method of embedded value can successed solve the difficulty of the evaluation of health insurance, with the setting of some specific parameters. So this method becomes the preferred method of the evaluation. The other two methods can also help the assessors to understand the value of health insurance company through different sides.
In the third chapter, according to the assumptions of the three methods mentioned before, the author evaluates the feasibility of the health insurance in our country. The author finds out that there are some troubles in our country to use these three methods, and the existences of these difficulties affect the accuracy of the reach on health insurance companies valuation. Some parts of these difficulties are decided by objective conditions, for example, China’s capital market is still under the low level of development, the timeliness and accuracy of the data provided have a certain gap compared with the developed countries also. The development of health insurance in our country is in the initial stage with no quoted insurance companies. These difficulties can not be solved in a short time, but only with the passage of time, the further development of China’s capital market and the health insurance companies, they can be solved. Other difficulties are decided by subjective conditions, for example, the free cash flow for the firm sometimes makes an undervaluation when calculates the valuation of long time health insurance companies According to this condition, the author makes an amendment about the free cash flow for the firm. Finally, the author presents some primary summary and conclusion on the evaluation methods of our country's health insurance companies.
For the difficulty on the data collection of health insurance, the author used the Ping an Insurance Company, the biggest insurance company of China, as an illustration. In the chapter four, according its annual report data in 2006 and 2007 ,the author calculate the companies value of health insurance respectively, using the investment banking approach, free cash flow for the firm and embedded value. After the comparison of results, the author found that the result calculated using the investment banking approach and the free cash flow for the firm is bigger than the result calculated using the method of embedded value. For this situation, the author presents his own views and explanation.
The innovation of this paper may be as follows:
First of all, novel topics, practicability. When the time you select your subjects, You must jump out of the limitations of the subject of insurance, therefore fix the topic on the research of health insurance companies valuation which has combined the accounting and insurance. At the mean time, with the increasing open of our finance and insurance industry, this is the first time to put the health insurance companies valuation on a research and then make a preliminary summary and conclusion. Secondly, this paper has focused on the comparison, summary and the using of the reference. In the paper, the author compares the method of the evaluation between the general companies and the health insurance business, comparing both the advantages and the disadvantages. Then on the basic of summarizing and using the references of the foreign health insurance companies, according the condition of our country, the author attempts to put forward the ideas and the solutions of ourselves’health insurance companies valuation, providing some useful references of our country’s evaluation on the health insurance companies. Finally, the author presents some preliminary discussions on the specific assumption of the health insurance company valuation which has used the method of embedded value.
健康保险公司的经营管理需要准确的价值评估。健康保险公司的经营目标是企业价值的最大化,价值评估的结果是对健康保险公司经理人经营管理绩效的量化,合理准确的价值评估结果是一个很好的绩效考核指标。其次,价值评估提供的信息并不仅仅是企业价值一个数字,还包括评估过程产生的大量信息。例如,业务价值是由哪些因素驱动的,销售净利润对企业价值的影响有多大,提高投资资本报酬率对企业价值的影响有多大等等。即使企业价值的最终评估结果不是很准确,这些中间信息也是很有意义的。最后,随着市场主体的增加,竞争的加剧,在未来出现健康保险公司并购的可能性极大。在市场经济的考验下,部分健康险业务经营不善的保险公司也很可能选择通过将其健康险业务整体打包出售的方式来退出健康保险该领域。健康保险的价值评估将是一个不可忽视的问题。基于以上的理由,准确评估健康保险公司价值对我国健康保险行业的快速健康发展是非常必要的。
目前专门对我国健康保险公司价值评估的研究还很少。本文首先对国外健康保险公司价值评估方法进行筛选和总结,认为适合健康保险公司的价值评估方法有三类:市场法、现金流量折现模型和内含价值法。然后按照这些方法的使用条件与我国的现实国情进行比较,筛选出适合我国国情的价值评估方法,即以对我国健康保险公司进行价值评估应以内含价值法为主,适当参考市场法和自由现金流量折现模型的评估结果。同时,根据健康保险的特性,对自由现金流量折现模型进行了修正。在文章最后,运用我国保险公司数据对三种方法的应用进行实证研究。本文的内容和结构安排如下:
第一章主要详细阐述了论文的研究背景、意义、主要思路和研究方法,对与健康保险公司价值评估的相关文献进行了归纳。文章主要采用从一般到特殊的研究思路,根据健康保险与寿险及非寿险共性与个性,分析价值评估理论的产生与发展,研究出我国健康保险公司价值评估的关键在于健康保险特殊性假设和长期健康保险业务的价值评估,只有解决这两个问题,才能选出适合健康保险公司的价值评估方法,正确评估健康保险公司价值。
第二章通过对国外健康保险公司价值评估理论的研究,归纳出目前国际比较流行的健康保险公司价值评估方法:市场法、现金流量折现模型和内含价值法。通过对每种评估方法详细的分析对比,笔者认为经过对健康保险特有参数的设定,内含价值法成功的解决了健康保险价值评估的两个难点,成为健康保险公司价值评估的首选方法。另外两种方法分别从其他角度入手,可以帮助评估者从不同侧面了解健康保险公司价值。
第三章笔者根据上述三种方法的使用条件,着力分析运用这些方法评估我健康保险的可行性。笔者发现目前这三种方法在我国使用都会遇到一些困难,这些困难的存在影响了对我国健康保险公司价值评估的准确性。这些困难中有一部分是客观条件决定的,如我国资本市场的发育程度还比较低,所提供数据的准确性和及时性相对发达国家有一定的差距;我国健康保险还在发展初期,没有上市的健康保险公司等等。这些困难在短期内无法快速解决,只有随着时间的推移,我国资本市场和健康保险行业进一步发展,才能逐步得到解决。还有一些困难是方法本身的,比如自由现金流量折现模型在计算长期健康保险业务价值时会造成一定程度的低估。笔者根据这一情况对自由现金流量折现模型进行了修正。最后,笔者对我国健康保险公司价值评估方法进行了初步归纳与总结:我国健康保险公司价值评估方法应以内含价值法为主,参考市场法和自由现金流量折现模型的评估结果。这三种方法不但可以应用在健康保险公司,同样可以应用在健康保险业务的价值评估上。
第四章由于我国健康保险公司数据采集非常困难,笔者以中国最大的保险公司之一——中国平安为例,根据中国平安2006年和2007年年报的数据,运用市盈率法、自由现金流量折现模型和内含价值法分别计算中国平安健康保险有限公司的价值。通过对结果的比较,笔者发现市盈率法和自由现金流量折现模型的计算结果大于内含价值法的计算结果,笔者对出现这一情况提出了自己的看法与解释。本文的研究目的是寻找适合健康保险公司的价值评估方法并探索这些方法在我国的可用性,实证研究的计算结果有待在以后的研究中进一步寻求解释。
本文选题新颖,有一定的实用性。在选题时跳出了保险专业的局限性,选择了集保险学、会计学等学科结合的健康保险公司价值评估为研究对象。同时,在我国不断加大金融保险业开放力度的背景下第一次对我国健康保险公司价值评估方法进行了初步的总结和归纳,具有较为重大的理论和现实意义,选题具有一定的新意。另外,注重比较、总结和借鉴。在文章的写作过程中,比较了一般企业与健康保险公司的价值评估方法,分析了各种评估方法的优缺点,并在总结和借鉴国外健康保险公司价值评估经验的基础上,根据我国具体国情,尝试提出了评估我国健康保险公司价值的思路及对策,期望能抛砖引玉,为我国健康保险公司价值评估提供一些有益的参考。最后,笔者对运用内含价值法评估健康保险公司时所特有的假设进行了初步的探讨。由于时间和作者水平的限制,本文还有很多不足,笔者会在以后的学习和研究中去进一步完善。
Since China insurance regulatory commission approved the establishment of health insurance company in 2005,health insurance developed with a high speed in China. There are more and more insurance companies and health insurance products. Since the fist health insurance company—PICC health insurance company limit--established in 2005,more and more health insurance companies were established such as Reward health、Kunlun health and Ping an health,Changqing health would be opening soon. In addition, there are 45 property insurance companies and 56 life insurance companies selling health insurance products in China.
With the increasing competition, some health insurance companies will be M & A in the future, and some insurance companies will sell theirs health insurance companies if they are in poor management. So, the valuation of health business is a very important problem. Otherwise, health insurance company’s management need the valuation. To maximize enterprise value is the aim of the health insurance company’s management, the result of the valuation is one of the best performance indicate for health insurance company’s managers. At the last, the result of the valuation is not only a number, but also has other information. For example, they can tell us which factors would affect the whole value,how much would these factors affect,especially when the cost of capital is adjusted. Although the valuation result maybe not accurate enough,the information from the result is still valuable. In a word, it is very meaningful for China’s health insurance development to valuation health insurance companies accurately.
Nowadays, the reach on health insurance companies valuation in China is very little. In this paper, first of all, it summarizes the ways and means of the reach on health insurance companies valuation in foreign countries and divides them into three: Investment banking approach, Free cash flow for the firm and Embedded value. Then it compares them with the realistic situation of our country, and filters the proper ways that the health insurance companies in China should be based on the method of embedded value and make the other two methods for reference. Meanwhile, according to the characteristic of the health insurance, this paper makes an amendment about the method of free cash flow for the firm. In the end, it makes an empirical research about the three methods by the data of insurance companies in China. The contents and structure of this paper as follows:
The first chapter mainly illustrates the research background, the significance ,the main ideas and research methods. Then makes a summarize about the relevant literature to the reach on health insurance companies valuation. According to the general characters and the individual characters of the health and life insurance and non-life insurance, the paper analyzes the development of the theory about the valuation from the general to the specific research ideas, and turns out the importance of the reach on health insurance companies valuation is the valuation of the long time health insurance companies, and the problem that the method of payment mingles with the complexity of the health insurance becomes the most complicated for the assessors.
With the research of foreign health insurance company valuation, the second chapter summarize the popular evaluation methods of the health insurance companies: investment banking approach, free cash flow for the firm and embedded value. Through a detailed comparison of each evaluated methods, the author believes that the method of embedded value can successed solve the difficulty of the evaluation of health insurance, with the setting of some specific parameters. So this method becomes the preferred method of the evaluation. The other two methods can also help the assessors to understand the value of health insurance company through different sides.
In the third chapter, according to the assumptions of the three methods mentioned before, the author evaluates the feasibility of the health insurance in our country. The author finds out that there are some troubles in our country to use these three methods, and the existences of these difficulties affect the accuracy of the reach on health insurance companies valuation. Some parts of these difficulties are decided by objective conditions, for example, China’s capital market is still under the low level of development, the timeliness and accuracy of the data provided have a certain gap compared with the developed countries also. The development of health insurance in our country is in the initial stage with no quoted insurance companies. These difficulties can not be solved in a short time, but only with the passage of time, the further development of China’s capital market and the health insurance companies, they can be solved. Other difficulties are decided by subjective conditions, for example, the free cash flow for the firm sometimes makes an undervaluation when calculates the valuation of long time health insurance companies According to this condition, the author makes an amendment about the free cash flow for the firm. Finally, the author presents some primary summary and conclusion on the evaluation methods of our country's health insurance companies.
For the difficulty on the data collection of health insurance, the author used the Ping an Insurance Company, the biggest insurance company of China, as an illustration. In the chapter four, according its annual report data in 2006 and 2007 ,the author calculate the companies value of health insurance respectively, using the investment banking approach, free cash flow for the firm and embedded value. After the comparison of results, the author found that the result calculated using the investment banking approach and the free cash flow for the firm is bigger than the result calculated using the method of embedded value. For this situation, the author presents his own views and explanation.
The innovation of this paper may be as follows:
First of all, novel topics, practicability. When the time you select your subjects, You must jump out of the limitations of the subject of insurance, therefore fix the topic on the research of health insurance companies valuation which has combined the accounting and insurance. At the mean time, with the increasing open of our finance and insurance industry, this is the first time to put the health insurance companies valuation on a research and then make a preliminary summary and conclusion. Secondly, this paper has focused on the comparison, summary and the using of the reference. In the paper, the author compares the method of the evaluation between the general companies and the health insurance business, comparing both the advantages and the disadvantages. Then on the basic of summarizing and using the references of the foreign health insurance companies, according the condition of our country, the author attempts to put forward the ideas and the solutions of ourselves’health insurance companies valuation, providing some useful references of our country’s evaluation on the health insurance companies. Finally, the author presents some preliminary discussions on the specific assumption of the health insurance company valuation which has used the method of embedded value.
引文
1数据来源中国保监会网站,2007-12-01
2吴定富《中国保险市场发展报告(2008)》电子工业出版社2008 81页
3 http://news.hexun.com/2008-04-02/104957120.html 2008-4
4数据来源:2007年1月26日《环球时报》经济版
5刘娥平.公司价值评估方法及其应用.财会月刊,2004.(14)
6陈兵《论保险公司的价值评估》保险研究2007年第12期
9李安达《细说内含价值》精算通论第三卷第三期
10周钊《寿险公司内含价值研究》湖南大学硕士研究生论文2006年
11常劲松《寿险公司内含价值评估与应用研究》西南财经大学硕士研究生论文2003年
12赵永恒.《伤病发生概率测量及健康保险损失分布研究》西南财经大学硕士学位论文2007
13陈滔《医疗保险精算和风险控制方法》西南财经大学出版社2002年38-40页
14 Patricia Born Unraveling the Health Insurance Underwriting Cycle.2007.05
15数据来源中国证监会网站
16朱南军《三种现金流量折现模型估价差异和适用性分析》经济评论2004年第3期
[1]陈滔.编著健康保险[M]西南财经大学出版社2002年2月第一版
[2]陈滔.国外健康保险精算现状分析及启示研究[J]上海保险2004(5)
[3]陈滔.中国健康保险精算的现状、问题和对策[J]财经科学2004(2)
[4]赵志夏.健康保险精算评估研究.西南财经大学硕士学位论文2007
[5]赵永恒.伤病发生概率测量及健康保险损失分布研究西南财经大学硕士学位论文2007
[6]中国保险监督管理委员会.人身保险内含价值报告编制指引2005
[7]吴定富.建立符合我国保险业实际的内含价值评估体系[J]中国金融2005(8)
[8]吴定富.建立内含价值评估体系促进人身保险业健康发展[J]保险研究2005(8)
[9]周钊.寿险公司内含价值理论与应用探析[J].湖南科技学院学报2005(12)
[10]简仲明.产险公司价值评估之研究2007(5)
[11]凌氤宝.保险公司经营与价值评估2003(3)
[12]谢晓霞.我国保险企业价值评估方法选择研究[J]中国保险2007(11)
[13]陈亮.人寿保险公司价值评估研究[J].保险研究2004(6)
[14]刘娥平.公司价值评估方法及其应用.财会月刊2004(14)
[15]江丽君企业价值评估方法研究述评.华商2008(18)
[16]殷越现金流量折现模型综述及在企业价值评估中的应用研究哈尔滨商业大学学报(社会科学版) 2008(2)
[17]张俊杰现金流量折现模型参数的估计金融教学与研究2005(03)
[18]朱南军三种现金流量折现模型估价差异和适用性分析经济评论2004(3)
[19]封群谈谈个人寿险的继续率保险研究1996(05)
[20]陈璐DCF模型中自由现金流量的合理估算财会研究2007(05)
[21]李安达细说内含价值精算通论第三卷第三期
[22]张鼎祖企业价值评估市场法的改进统计与决策2006(5)
[23]张鼎祖对市场法评估企业价值的思考财会月刊2006(5)
[24]Robert H.Dobson. Valuation of Health Business for Mergers and Acquisitions. Palm Desert Spring Meeting Session 15,1997
[25]Thomas Corcoran. Recent Mergers and Acquisitions Activity in the Health Arena—Implications for the Future. Annual Meeting and Exhibit, Session 90,2004
[26]Jan Kamieniecki. Valuing Insurance Companies Financial Training Course. 2007
[27]Karen Bender. Health Insurance And The Valuation Actuary. Maui Spring Meeting,Session 93,1998
[28]Patricia Born. Unraveling the Health Insurance Underwriting Cycle.2007.05
[29] Enrico Biffis Affine processes for dynamic mortality and actuarial valuations Insurance:Mathematics and Economics,2005(5)
[30] Thomas Miller On transformations of actuarial valuation principles Insurance:Mathematics and Economics,2001(3)
[31] R Herget Actuarial Appraisals—Process and Issues 2004(6)
[32] John D. Ladley Appraisals of blocks of health business 1993(11)
[33] Life and Health Valuation Manual,AAA,January,1998
[34] Actuarial Standard of Practice No.5,Incurred Health and Disability Claims, Dec.2000
[35] ASOP No.7,Analysis of Life,Health or Property/Casualty Insurer Cash Flows,June,2002
[36] ASOP No.8,Regulatory Fillings for Health Plan Entities,December,2005
[37] ASOP No.11,Financial Statement Treatment of Reinsurance Transaction Involving Life Health Insurance,June,2005
[38] ASOP No.12,Risk Classification(for All Practice Areas),December,2005
[39] ASOP No.16,Actuarial Practice Concerning Health Maintenance Organizations and Other Managed Care Health Plans,July,1990
[40] ASOP No.19,Appraisals of Casualty,Health,and Life Insurance Businesses, June,2005
[41] ASOP No.19,Appraisals of Casualty,Health,and Life Insurance Businesses, June,2005
[42] Actuarial Opinion and Memorandum Model Regulation,NAIC
[43] Health Insurance Reserves Model Regulation,NAIC
[44] Quarterly and Annual Statement Instructions,NAIC
[45] Statement of Statutory Accounting Principles No.84,Certain Health Care Receivables and Receivables Under Government Insured Plans,NAIC, effective January 1,2001
[46] Statement of Statutory Accounting Principles No.55,Unpaid Claims,Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses,NAIC,effective January 1,2001
2吴定富《中国保险市场发展报告(2008)》电子工业出版社2008 81页
3 http://news.hexun.com/2008-04-02/104957120.html 2008-4
4数据来源:2007年1月26日《环球时报》经济版
5刘娥平.公司价值评估方法及其应用.财会月刊,2004.(14)
6陈兵《论保险公司的价值评估》保险研究2007年第12期
9李安达《细说内含价值》精算通论第三卷第三期
10周钊《寿险公司内含价值研究》湖南大学硕士研究生论文2006年
11常劲松《寿险公司内含价值评估与应用研究》西南财经大学硕士研究生论文2003年
12赵永恒.《伤病发生概率测量及健康保险损失分布研究》西南财经大学硕士学位论文2007
13陈滔《医疗保险精算和风险控制方法》西南财经大学出版社2002年38-40页
14 Patricia Born Unraveling the Health Insurance Underwriting Cycle.2007.05
15数据来源中国证监会网站
16朱南军《三种现金流量折现模型估价差异和适用性分析》经济评论2004年第3期
[1]陈滔.编著健康保险[M]西南财经大学出版社2002年2月第一版
[2]陈滔.国外健康保险精算现状分析及启示研究[J]上海保险2004(5)
[3]陈滔.中国健康保险精算的现状、问题和对策[J]财经科学2004(2)
[4]赵志夏.健康保险精算评估研究.西南财经大学硕士学位论文2007
[5]赵永恒.伤病发生概率测量及健康保险损失分布研究西南财经大学硕士学位论文2007
[6]中国保险监督管理委员会.人身保险内含价值报告编制指引2005
[7]吴定富.建立符合我国保险业实际的内含价值评估体系[J]中国金融2005(8)
[8]吴定富.建立内含价值评估体系促进人身保险业健康发展[J]保险研究2005(8)
[9]周钊.寿险公司内含价值理论与应用探析[J].湖南科技学院学报2005(12)
[10]简仲明.产险公司价值评估之研究2007(5)
[11]凌氤宝.保险公司经营与价值评估2003(3)
[12]谢晓霞.我国保险企业价值评估方法选择研究[J]中国保险2007(11)
[13]陈亮.人寿保险公司价值评估研究[J].保险研究2004(6)
[14]刘娥平.公司价值评估方法及其应用.财会月刊2004(14)
[15]江丽君企业价值评估方法研究述评.华商2008(18)
[16]殷越现金流量折现模型综述及在企业价值评估中的应用研究哈尔滨商业大学学报(社会科学版) 2008(2)
[17]张俊杰现金流量折现模型参数的估计金融教学与研究2005(03)
[18]朱南军三种现金流量折现模型估价差异和适用性分析经济评论2004(3)
[19]封群谈谈个人寿险的继续率保险研究1996(05)
[20]陈璐DCF模型中自由现金流量的合理估算财会研究2007(05)
[21]李安达细说内含价值精算通论第三卷第三期
[22]张鼎祖企业价值评估市场法的改进统计与决策2006(5)
[23]张鼎祖对市场法评估企业价值的思考财会月刊2006(5)
[24]Robert H.Dobson. Valuation of Health Business for Mergers and Acquisitions. Palm Desert Spring Meeting Session 15,1997
[25]Thomas Corcoran. Recent Mergers and Acquisitions Activity in the Health Arena—Implications for the Future. Annual Meeting and Exhibit, Session 90,2004
[26]Jan Kamieniecki. Valuing Insurance Companies Financial Training Course. 2007
[27]Karen Bender. Health Insurance And The Valuation Actuary. Maui Spring Meeting,Session 93,1998
[28]Patricia Born. Unraveling the Health Insurance Underwriting Cycle.2007.05
[29] Enrico Biffis Affine processes for dynamic mortality and actuarial valuations Insurance:Mathematics and Economics,2005(5)
[30] Thomas Miller On transformations of actuarial valuation principles Insurance:Mathematics and Economics,2001(3)
[31] R Herget Actuarial Appraisals—Process and Issues 2004(6)
[32] John D. Ladley Appraisals of blocks of health business 1993(11)
[33] Life and Health Valuation Manual,AAA,January,1998
[34] Actuarial Standard of Practice No.5,Incurred Health and Disability Claims, Dec.2000
[35] ASOP No.7,Analysis of Life,Health or Property/Casualty Insurer Cash Flows,June,2002
[36] ASOP No.8,Regulatory Fillings for Health Plan Entities,December,2005
[37] ASOP No.11,Financial Statement Treatment of Reinsurance Transaction Involving Life Health Insurance,June,2005
[38] ASOP No.12,Risk Classification(for All Practice Areas),December,2005
[39] ASOP No.16,Actuarial Practice Concerning Health Maintenance Organizations and Other Managed Care Health Plans,July,1990
[40] ASOP No.19,Appraisals of Casualty,Health,and Life Insurance Businesses, June,2005
[41] ASOP No.19,Appraisals of Casualty,Health,and Life Insurance Businesses, June,2005
[42] Actuarial Opinion and Memorandum Model Regulation,NAIC
[43] Health Insurance Reserves Model Regulation,NAIC
[44] Quarterly and Annual Statement Instructions,NAIC
[45] Statement of Statutory Accounting Principles No.84,Certain Health Care Receivables and Receivables Under Government Insured Plans,NAIC, effective January 1,2001
[46] Statement of Statutory Accounting Principles No.55,Unpaid Claims,Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses,NAIC,effective January 1,2001