论中央银行在金融生态系统中的角色定位
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摘要
在生态系统中有这样一些物种,它们对整个生态系统的健康与稳定起着举足轻重的作用,这些物种被称为Keystone(关键物种)。笔者在研究金融生态系统的过程中发现,中央银行对金融生态系统中的其它物种虽然没有直接的控制能力,但它能够为金融生态系统中大部分生物群落提供食物——货币,同时还能够维护金融生态系统中资金链的正常运转,对整个金融生态系统的健康和稳定起到至关重要的作用。
针对这一有趣的发现,本文提出了这样一个命题：中央银行是不是金融生态系统中的一个Keystone?并就这一命题所涉及到的相关方面展开了思考：(1)什么是金融生态系统?金融系统模拟生态系统是否有理论支撑?金融系统模拟生态系统需要哪些假设条件?(2)中央银行在金融生态系统中扮演什么样的角色?它是不是金融生态系统中的Keystone?它与金融生态系统中其它物种的关系怎样?它与其生存的内外环境是如何协调?(3)如何评估转轨时期我国中央银行在金融生态系统中所发挥的作用等等?这些是本文要回答的主要问题。
本文运用实证与规范相结合的方法,从货币循环视角对中央银行在金融生态系统中的角色定位作了系统的研究。论文主要包括以下内容：
第一章导论。本章首先阐述了论文的研究背景与意图,笔者在深入研究金融生态系统的结构和功能时,发现了中央银行的地位至关重要,其作用类似于生态系统中的Keystone。基于此,本文提出了中央银行是否为金融生态系统的Keystone这一命题。接着,为论证这一命题,本文从提出问题、分析问题和解决问题三个层面展开了构思,并对每一章节的内容进行了简单介绍。最后归纳了论文的研究方法与主要观点。
第二章金融生态系统的理论框架。本章在梳理国内外有关金融生态系统渊源的基础之上,提出了金融系统模拟生态系统的四个基本假设。在此基础之上,借助生态系统的概念与相关理论,从仿生视角阐述了金融生态系统的定义、内涵、特征、组成、结构、以及金融生态系统物质代谢及其平衡等方面的理论分析框架。最后,详细论述了金融生态系统的演进是金融主体与环境相耦合、时间和空间相融合、物质要素和环境条件相结合的复杂进化过程。
第三章金融生态系统的货币循环。本章对金融生态系统的货币循环进行了界定。主要从以下几个方面展开分析：(1)对物质循环的概念、特点以及描述方法进行了界定。(2)分别从供给和需求两个层面对货币理论的研究成果进行了介绍。(3)梳理了货币流通的相关文献综述。主要介绍了三种不同的货币流通速度理论。(4)探讨了金融生态系统货币循环的概念、特征及相关理论,并运用货币循环理论解释货币供给的性质。
第四章中央银行与金融生态系统的关系：基于货币循环的分析视角。本章重点从货币循环的视角问答了中央银行与金融生态系统之间的关系。具体包括以下几个方面内容：(1)从货币循环的视角来分析中央银行在金融生态系统中的演化路径。(2)运用Keystone原理,论证了中央银行是金融生态系统中的一个关键物种。(3)从货币循环的视角,探讨了中央银行与其它物种之间的相互关系。(4)从演化视角,阐述了中央银行与金融生态环境相互作用、相互影响和相互协调的关系。
第五章中央银行在金融生态系统中发挥的角色之一：货币循环的总阀门。本章从货币发行与支付清算两个方面详细论述了中央银行履行货币循环总阀门的职能。主要包含以下几个方面的内容：(1)论述了统一货币发行是中央银行在金融生态系统中演化的核心推动力。(2)介绍了货币发行的涵义、种类、发行渠道与程序以及货币发行的准备金制度。(3)归纳了世界各国货币发行制度的演变趋势。(4)描述了我国中央银行货币发行制度的演变历程。(5)围绕中央银行参与货币循环的内涵、原理、主要内容以及我国中央银行参与货币循环的演变历程展开了探讨。
第六章中央银行在金融生态系统中发挥的角色之二：货币循环的遥控器。本章重点从货币循环的供给路径角度着手,探讨了中央银行充当货币循环“遥控器”的职能,它是中央银行的首要职能。主要从以下几个方面展开了分析：(1)阐述了货币循环遥控器的涵义、主要内容以及作用原理。(2)从金融生态系统视角论述了中央银行调控货币循环的有效性,并分析了制约中央银行货币调控有效性的主要因素。(3)从空间的视角考察了美国、英国、欧洲以及韩国的中央银行调控货币循环制度的演变路径。(4)运用实证方法对我国中央银行的货币调控渠道与效果进行了检验。(5)提出了增强中央银行货币调控有效性的政策建议。
第七章中央银行在金融生态系统中发挥的角色之三：货币循环镇流器。本章重点从货币循环的需求路径角度着手,探讨了中央银行履行货币循环的镇流器职能。(1)对货币循环镇流器的概念、内涵、演变路径及其作用原理进行了界定。(2)详细介绍了中央银行履行货币循环镇流器角色的主要内容。(3)分别阐述了发达国家和转轨国家的中央银行维护货币循环稳定的制度架构。(4)论述了我国中央银行履行货币循环镇流器职能的演进路径,并对我国中央银行履行货币循环镇流器的效果进行了实证检验。(5)提出了增强中央银行履行货币循环镇流器职能的政策建议。
第八章结论与展望。本章对论文的主要工作和得出的有关结论作一简要总结,并结合当前金融危机对今后的研究方向进行展望。
论文包含以下创新之处：
(1)金融生态系统概念的引入为我们研究金融运行和金融风险的形成提供了一个全新的视角。笔者在总结前人研究成果的基础上,将金融生态系统理论的演进划分为金融发展理论、金融资源理论、金融协调理论以及金融生态系统理论等四个阶段,并在此基础上提出了金融生态系统的四个基本假设条件。指出了金融生态系统脆弱性的根源在于各要素之间具有很强的交叉性、人为性及其物质交换和能量流动过程中的多向性、可逆性和扩张性所导致的货币脆弱性和信用脆弱性。
(2)货币循环是金融生态系统的核心功能。它与生态系统物质循环的本质区别在于：(a)可逆性。货币循环既可以由生产者流经消费者再到分解者,又可以由分解者流经消费者再到生产者。因而,在货币理论中一直存在内生与外生之争。(b)调控性。从货币循环的供给路径来看,中央银行通过合理控制与消费者之间的物质交换,来实现金融生态系统健康、有序的发展。(c)适应性。从货币循环的需求路径来看,金融生态系统内外环境的变化,使得分解者与消费者之间的货币交换量发生变化,导致了中央银行被动地创造货币,来维护金融生态系统的稳定。因此,从货币循环演化视角来看,本文认为货币即具有内生性又具有外生性。
(3)中央银行是在金融生态系统的货币循环和信用流动的演进过程中逐渐进化而来的。它在金融生态系统中发挥三大功能：(a)金融生态系统货币循环的总阀门；(b)金融生态系统货币循环的遥控器；(c)金融生态系统货币循环的镇流器。从这三大作用来看,中央银行对金融生态系统的影响至关重要,它直接影响到金融生态系统的结构和功能,对其它物种如政府、银行、企业以及居民的行为影响非常大,它在整个金融生态系统的货币循环中发挥关键作用。基于此,本文认为：中央银行是金融生态系统中的一个Keystone(关键物种)。
(4)中央银行发挥货币循环总阀门的角色主要体现在以下两个方面：(a)为其它物种提供所需的食物(货币发行)；(b)为消费者(金融机构群落)之间的货币循环提供便利(支付清算)。一方面中央银行作为金融生态系统货币循环的生产者,它的主要职责之一是货币发行,为中央银行发挥货币循环遥控器提供物质基础,同时成为中央银行充当货币循环镇流器的核心。另一方面,由于中央银行的非赢利性质和垄断货币发行的特殊地位,使得它不存在信用风险和流动风险；同时,它还接受商业银行的法定存款准备金,从而为金融机构间的清算提供了便利条件。
(5)从货币循环的供给演化路径来看,中央银行发挥遥控器的作用有两条渠道：货币传导与信用传导渠道,两者是共生的、相伴的,而且是相互依赖,相互制约,不可分割地同时进行着,推动着金融生态系统不断地运动、变化,并向前发展。本文得出了如下结论：(a)中央银行能否有效调控货币循环的判断标准有两条：第一条长期有效还是短期有效；第二条能否调控货币循环使金融生态系统趋于平衡状态。(b)从短期来看,中央银行能够有效调控金融生态系统的货币循环；长期来看,中央银行的调控作用无效。(c)实证结果表明：从短期来看,我国中央银行的货币调控效果显著,信用渠道与货币渠道都是其发挥调控作用的方式,两者相互作用、相互影响。从长期来看,我国中央银行的货币调控效果不显著。
(6)从货币循环的需求演化路径来看,中央银行充当货币循环镇流器主要从以下两个层面来发挥作用：第一个层面是监管金融体系与金融市场,维护金融生态系统货币循环的正常运转。第二个层面是扮演最后贷款人角色,阻止金融生态系统货币循环不稳定的发生或降低货币循环不稳定的破坏性。本文对我国中央银行履行货币循环镇流器的效果进行了实证检验。结果表明：从总体情况来看,我国的金融生态系统的稳定性水平不断呈现上升态势,十年期间金融稳定性综合指数的平均水平约为68.0分,这说明了我国整体金融生态系统处于正常状态,不金引发金融危机。同时,也表明了我国中央银行发挥金融生态系统货币循环镇流器的效果在逐步增强。
不过,由于金融生态系统是一个非常复杂的问题,涵盖了生态学、仿生学、演化经济学、金融学、计量经济学等学科,对研究者的理论素养和现实洞察力的要求甚高,也正因为如此,本文还存在一些有待完善之处：(1)论文尝试性地应用生态学原理对金融问题进行了分析,但不够深入,有待拓展；(2)在运用层次分析法对中央银行的稳定效果进行检验时,各指标权重的确定主观成分过多,有待进一步完善；(3)缺乏运用生态学方法来解决金融领域方面的相关难题。比如,缺乏对当前国际金融危机形势下中央银行角色如何转轨进行深入分析。
There are the so-called Keystone species that process the significant roles for healthy and stability of the whole eco-systems. The author found that the central bank plays the similar role in the financial eco-systems by its direct supply for money, the food for most of biological populations in this system, and the guarantee to the formal performance of funds chain of it, even without any ability to direct control to other species in financial eco-systems.
In response to this interesting finding, this paper presents such a proposition: whether the central bank is the Keystone in the financial eco-systems or not? And there are the further questions we have:(1) what 'financial ecosystems' stands for? Is there any theory involved of the metaphor between the financial system and eco-system? And what kinds of assumptions are necessary to this task? (2) What kind of performance for the central bank in financial eco-systems? Is that Keystone one? What kind of relationship between it and other species in this system and how they coordinate to each other? (3) How to access the role of our central bank for Chinese eco-systems during the period of transition of economic-systems? Those are the main problem to be solved in this dissertation.
By the analyses of positive and normative economics, our researches are mainly about the systematic studies on the roles of the central bank within the financial eco-system. And the main contents are as follows:
Chapter One:Introduction. In which we illustrate the background and intention of our studies. We already found the significance of central bank during the further analyses to structures and functions of financial eco-systems just as what the Keystone performed in ecological systems. Therefore, the main proposition shows whether the central bank is the Keystone for financial eco-systems or not? To prove this, we organize this chapter as follows:illustration, analyses and solution to the given problem, plus we provided the brief introduction to each part. There is the instruction part to major methods applied in the dissertation and related conclusions in the end.
Chapter Two:The theoretical framework for financial eco-systems. Based on the related literatures involved of financial eco-systems form all over the world, we draw four assumptions for financial system simulating to ecological systems. Furthermore, from the viewpoint of bionics, we provide the definition, intension, characters, compositions, structures and the theoretical framework of metabolism and balance within financial eco-systems by applying the contents and related theories in ecological systems. Specifically, we stress that the evolution of financial eco-systems is the complex evolutionary process in which financial agents and their environments, time and space, elements of matter and conditions of environments are acting to each other.
Chapter Three:Monetary Circulation of Financial Eco-systems. Here, we define the monetary circulation in financial systems as follows:in SectionⅠ, we introduce the definition, characters and presenting methods for matter circulation. SectionⅡis mainly about the related research of demand and supply in existed monetary theories. SectionⅢprovides us a survey for money circulation including three main different theories for money circulation speed. In SectionⅣ, we focus on the discussion to the contents and related researches of money circulation in financial eco-systems, and explain money supply is both of endogenous and of exogenous according to the money circulation theories.
Chapter Four:The Relationship between Central Bank and Financial Eco-systems. From the viewpoint of money circulation theories, we define the relationship between central bank and financial eco-systems such as:First, we analyze the pathway of evolution for central bank within the financial eco-systems based on the money circulation theories. Secondly, we well proved that central bank is the Keystone spice for financial eco-systems according to the principle of Keystone. Third, we discuss the relationship between central bank and other spices in money circulation. Forth, based on evolution theories, we illustrate the complicated interactions central bank and its financial ecological environments.
Chapter Five:Central Bank is the Main Valve to money circulation. There are two major aspects to prove the central bank as the main valve to money circulation such as currency issuance and payment & settlement. There are five detail aspects for this problem:(1) We illustrate that the integrated issuance of currency is the central power to driving the evolution of central bank in financial eco-systems. (2) We introduce the contents, categories, channels and procedures of currency issuance, and its reserve institutions. (3) We induce the changing trends for currency issuance institutions in the range. (4) There is the brief presentation to changing history of currency issuance of Chinese central banks. (5) We make the further discussions on intensions principles, main contents for the action to money circulation making by central bank, and Chinese specific case analysis.
Chapter Six:Central Bank as Money Circulation Remoter. From the viewpoint of supply pathway for money circulation, we discussed the role of central bank as money circulation 'remoter', which is the prime role for central bank. Specifically, we organize this chapter as follows:(1) We illustrate the intension, main contents and working principles of money circulation remoter. (2) Based on the viewpoint of financial eco-systems, we argue the efficiency money circulation controlled by central bank, and its main elements. (3) From the viewpoint of space, we provide a survey for various institutional changing pathway of money circulation controlled by central bank. (4) We test the effect of money circulation controlled by Chinese central bank positive methods. (5) There are some policy advices to enhance the efficiency of central bank's monetary control.
Chapter Seven:Central Bank as the Ballast to Money Circulation. From the viewpoint of demand pathway for money circulation, we discuss the role of central bank as ballast to money circulation. In SectionⅠ, we provide the definition, intension, changing pathway and working principles of ballast to money circulation. SectionⅡprovides us the main content actions of central bank as ballast to money circulation. In SectionⅢ, we illustrate institutional framework cases that central bank is in charge of the stability to money circulation from developed countries and transitional countries respectively. In SectionⅣ, we introduce the changing pathway of ballast role for Chinese central bank, and test its efficiency by positive methods. Finally, we provide some policy advices to enhance the ballast role of central bank's money circulation control.
Chapter Eight:The main thesis of this chapter is to draw a brief summary of the work and conclusions about the paper. Furthermore, prospects on the direction of future research in conjunction with the current financial crisis.
There are the innovative points in this dissertation such as:
Firstly, we provide a bright new viewpoint for researches on financial performance and financial risk management by the introduction of Financial Eco-systems. Based on related studies, we provide a division to the evolution of financial eco-systems theory including financial development theory, financial resources theory, financial coordination theory and financial eco-systems theory, and furthermore, illustrate four fundamental assumptions for financial eco-systems. We point out that the origin of vulnerability of financial eco-systems is from strong interactions, artificial character among those elements, and the vulnerability of money & credit caused by the characters such as multi-direction, reversibility, diffusion in the procedure of matter exchange and energy flows.
The second, Money circulation is the central function of financial eco-systems, and its main characters different from the matter circulation are as follows:(1) Bi-direction. Since money circulation includes the processes both from producer to decomposer through consumer, and from decomposer to producer through consumer, there is an issue for endogenous and exogenous in monetary theories. (2) Adjustability. From the viewpoint of supply pathway in money circulation, central bank could conduct the reasonable control on the matter exchange between consumer and him to realize the healthy well-ordered development of financial eco-systems. (3) Adaptation. From the viewpoint of demand pathway in money circulation, the inner and external environmental changes of financial eco-systems could change the exchange amount between decomposer and consumer, which forces central bank to create money passively for the stability of financial eco-systems. Therefore, from the viewpoint of money circulation, we think that money is both endogenous and exogenous.
Thirdly, Central bank originates from the evolutionary process of money circulation and credit flows in financial eco-systems, which has three main functions for the system:(1) The main valve to money circulation for financial eco-systems. (2) Money circulation remoter for financial eco-systems. (3) The ballast to money circulation for financial eco-systems. Based on these functions, central bank is the fatal element to financial eco-systems, which will affect its structures and functions, and seriously influence the behaviors from other species such as governments, commercial bank, corporations and residents as well. Central bank is the Keystone for financial eco-systems, as our thoughts.
Fourthly, as the main valve to money circulation, central bank has two major roles:(1) Provide food to other species (currency issuance). (2) provide the facility (payment & settlement) for money circulation between consumers (populations of financial institutions). On one hand, as the producer of money circulation in financial eco-systems, one of central bank's main tasks is currency issuance, which provides the matter foundation for its "remoter'and'ballast'functions. On the other hand, according to the non-profitability and special monopoly position in currency issuance, central bank will never face the credit risk and liquidity risk, and at the same time, central bank holds the legal reserve for commercial banks, which facilitate the settlement between financial institutions.
Fifthly, from the supply pathway of money circulation, there are two ways for central bank to play its role as the remoter:money and credit transmissions. They are symbiotic, inter-dependent and indivisibly evolving overtime for the development of financial eco-systems evolution. We have the conclusions as follows:(1) there are two judging standards for the efficiency of money circulation controlled by central bank:(a) whether it is efficient in the long term or not? (b) Whether central bank could control the money circulation into the balance state? (2) During the short term, central bank could make the efficient control to money circulation in financial eco-systems, but in the long term, it would not work. (3) Based on the positive analysis, there is the efficient result for Chinese money governance in the short term by both credit and money pathways that interact to each other. But in the long term, it does not work well.
Sixthly, from the demand pathway of money circulation, the ballast role of central bank in money circulation is mainly from two aspects:(1) the governance to financial systems and financial market to maintain the normal operation of money circulation in financial eco-systems. (2) As the lender of last resort, central bank is in charge of stability of money circulation in financial eco-systems. We committed the related positive test to the effect as ballast for Chinese central bank. Overall, the stable level was increasing for the past decade, and average index is about 68.0, which presents that Chinese overall financial eco-system is in the normal stage with the low risk for financial crisis, but at the same time, shows Chinese central bank had the increasing trend for its ballast role.
However, financial eco-systems is a very complicated problem that includes the knowledge form ecology, bionics, evolutionary economics, finance and econometrics etc. which required rich theoretical experiences and insights. Therefore, there are some unsolved problems as below:(1) we applied the principles from ecology to analyze the financial problem, but it is not perfect yet. (2) There is too much subjective element in the weight setting of our positive analyses. (3) We did not have enough ecological methods to solve financial problems.
针对这一有趣的发现,本文提出了这样一个命题：中央银行是不是金融生态系统中的一个Keystone?并就这一命题所涉及到的相关方面展开了思考：(1)什么是金融生态系统?金融系统模拟生态系统是否有理论支撑?金融系统模拟生态系统需要哪些假设条件?(2)中央银行在金融生态系统中扮演什么样的角色?它是不是金融生态系统中的Keystone?它与金融生态系统中其它物种的关系怎样?它与其生存的内外环境是如何协调?(3)如何评估转轨时期我国中央银行在金融生态系统中所发挥的作用等等?这些是本文要回答的主要问题。
本文运用实证与规范相结合的方法,从货币循环视角对中央银行在金融生态系统中的角色定位作了系统的研究。论文主要包括以下内容：
第一章导论。本章首先阐述了论文的研究背景与意图,笔者在深入研究金融生态系统的结构和功能时,发现了中央银行的地位至关重要,其作用类似于生态系统中的Keystone。基于此,本文提出了中央银行是否为金融生态系统的Keystone这一命题。接着,为论证这一命题,本文从提出问题、分析问题和解决问题三个层面展开了构思,并对每一章节的内容进行了简单介绍。最后归纳了论文的研究方法与主要观点。
第二章金融生态系统的理论框架。本章在梳理国内外有关金融生态系统渊源的基础之上,提出了金融系统模拟生态系统的四个基本假设。在此基础之上,借助生态系统的概念与相关理论,从仿生视角阐述了金融生态系统的定义、内涵、特征、组成、结构、以及金融生态系统物质代谢及其平衡等方面的理论分析框架。最后,详细论述了金融生态系统的演进是金融主体与环境相耦合、时间和空间相融合、物质要素和环境条件相结合的复杂进化过程。
第三章金融生态系统的货币循环。本章对金融生态系统的货币循环进行了界定。主要从以下几个方面展开分析：(1)对物质循环的概念、特点以及描述方法进行了界定。(2)分别从供给和需求两个层面对货币理论的研究成果进行了介绍。(3)梳理了货币流通的相关文献综述。主要介绍了三种不同的货币流通速度理论。(4)探讨了金融生态系统货币循环的概念、特征及相关理论,并运用货币循环理论解释货币供给的性质。
第四章中央银行与金融生态系统的关系：基于货币循环的分析视角。本章重点从货币循环的视角问答了中央银行与金融生态系统之间的关系。具体包括以下几个方面内容：(1)从货币循环的视角来分析中央银行在金融生态系统中的演化路径。(2)运用Keystone原理,论证了中央银行是金融生态系统中的一个关键物种。(3)从货币循环的视角,探讨了中央银行与其它物种之间的相互关系。(4)从演化视角,阐述了中央银行与金融生态环境相互作用、相互影响和相互协调的关系。
第五章中央银行在金融生态系统中发挥的角色之一：货币循环的总阀门。本章从货币发行与支付清算两个方面详细论述了中央银行履行货币循环总阀门的职能。主要包含以下几个方面的内容：(1)论述了统一货币发行是中央银行在金融生态系统中演化的核心推动力。(2)介绍了货币发行的涵义、种类、发行渠道与程序以及货币发行的准备金制度。(3)归纳了世界各国货币发行制度的演变趋势。(4)描述了我国中央银行货币发行制度的演变历程。(5)围绕中央银行参与货币循环的内涵、原理、主要内容以及我国中央银行参与货币循环的演变历程展开了探讨。
第六章中央银行在金融生态系统中发挥的角色之二：货币循环的遥控器。本章重点从货币循环的供给路径角度着手,探讨了中央银行充当货币循环“遥控器”的职能,它是中央银行的首要职能。主要从以下几个方面展开了分析：(1)阐述了货币循环遥控器的涵义、主要内容以及作用原理。(2)从金融生态系统视角论述了中央银行调控货币循环的有效性,并分析了制约中央银行货币调控有效性的主要因素。(3)从空间的视角考察了美国、英国、欧洲以及韩国的中央银行调控货币循环制度的演变路径。(4)运用实证方法对我国中央银行的货币调控渠道与效果进行了检验。(5)提出了增强中央银行货币调控有效性的政策建议。
第七章中央银行在金融生态系统中发挥的角色之三：货币循环镇流器。本章重点从货币循环的需求路径角度着手,探讨了中央银行履行货币循环的镇流器职能。(1)对货币循环镇流器的概念、内涵、演变路径及其作用原理进行了界定。(2)详细介绍了中央银行履行货币循环镇流器角色的主要内容。(3)分别阐述了发达国家和转轨国家的中央银行维护货币循环稳定的制度架构。(4)论述了我国中央银行履行货币循环镇流器职能的演进路径,并对我国中央银行履行货币循环镇流器的效果进行了实证检验。(5)提出了增强中央银行履行货币循环镇流器职能的政策建议。
第八章结论与展望。本章对论文的主要工作和得出的有关结论作一简要总结,并结合当前金融危机对今后的研究方向进行展望。
论文包含以下创新之处：
(1)金融生态系统概念的引入为我们研究金融运行和金融风险的形成提供了一个全新的视角。笔者在总结前人研究成果的基础上,将金融生态系统理论的演进划分为金融发展理论、金融资源理论、金融协调理论以及金融生态系统理论等四个阶段,并在此基础上提出了金融生态系统的四个基本假设条件。指出了金融生态系统脆弱性的根源在于各要素之间具有很强的交叉性、人为性及其物质交换和能量流动过程中的多向性、可逆性和扩张性所导致的货币脆弱性和信用脆弱性。
(2)货币循环是金融生态系统的核心功能。它与生态系统物质循环的本质区别在于：(a)可逆性。货币循环既可以由生产者流经消费者再到分解者,又可以由分解者流经消费者再到生产者。因而,在货币理论中一直存在内生与外生之争。(b)调控性。从货币循环的供给路径来看,中央银行通过合理控制与消费者之间的物质交换,来实现金融生态系统健康、有序的发展。(c)适应性。从货币循环的需求路径来看,金融生态系统内外环境的变化,使得分解者与消费者之间的货币交换量发生变化,导致了中央银行被动地创造货币,来维护金融生态系统的稳定。因此,从货币循环演化视角来看,本文认为货币即具有内生性又具有外生性。
(3)中央银行是在金融生态系统的货币循环和信用流动的演进过程中逐渐进化而来的。它在金融生态系统中发挥三大功能：(a)金融生态系统货币循环的总阀门；(b)金融生态系统货币循环的遥控器；(c)金融生态系统货币循环的镇流器。从这三大作用来看,中央银行对金融生态系统的影响至关重要,它直接影响到金融生态系统的结构和功能,对其它物种如政府、银行、企业以及居民的行为影响非常大,它在整个金融生态系统的货币循环中发挥关键作用。基于此,本文认为：中央银行是金融生态系统中的一个Keystone(关键物种)。
(4)中央银行发挥货币循环总阀门的角色主要体现在以下两个方面：(a)为其它物种提供所需的食物(货币发行)；(b)为消费者(金融机构群落)之间的货币循环提供便利(支付清算)。一方面中央银行作为金融生态系统货币循环的生产者,它的主要职责之一是货币发行,为中央银行发挥货币循环遥控器提供物质基础,同时成为中央银行充当货币循环镇流器的核心。另一方面,由于中央银行的非赢利性质和垄断货币发行的特殊地位,使得它不存在信用风险和流动风险；同时,它还接受商业银行的法定存款准备金,从而为金融机构间的清算提供了便利条件。
(5)从货币循环的供给演化路径来看,中央银行发挥遥控器的作用有两条渠道：货币传导与信用传导渠道,两者是共生的、相伴的,而且是相互依赖,相互制约,不可分割地同时进行着,推动着金融生态系统不断地运动、变化,并向前发展。本文得出了如下结论：(a)中央银行能否有效调控货币循环的判断标准有两条：第一条长期有效还是短期有效；第二条能否调控货币循环使金融生态系统趋于平衡状态。(b)从短期来看,中央银行能够有效调控金融生态系统的货币循环；长期来看,中央银行的调控作用无效。(c)实证结果表明：从短期来看,我国中央银行的货币调控效果显著,信用渠道与货币渠道都是其发挥调控作用的方式,两者相互作用、相互影响。从长期来看,我国中央银行的货币调控效果不显著。
(6)从货币循环的需求演化路径来看,中央银行充当货币循环镇流器主要从以下两个层面来发挥作用：第一个层面是监管金融体系与金融市场,维护金融生态系统货币循环的正常运转。第二个层面是扮演最后贷款人角色,阻止金融生态系统货币循环不稳定的发生或降低货币循环不稳定的破坏性。本文对我国中央银行履行货币循环镇流器的效果进行了实证检验。结果表明：从总体情况来看,我国的金融生态系统的稳定性水平不断呈现上升态势,十年期间金融稳定性综合指数的平均水平约为68.0分,这说明了我国整体金融生态系统处于正常状态,不金引发金融危机。同时,也表明了我国中央银行发挥金融生态系统货币循环镇流器的效果在逐步增强。
不过,由于金融生态系统是一个非常复杂的问题,涵盖了生态学、仿生学、演化经济学、金融学、计量经济学等学科,对研究者的理论素养和现实洞察力的要求甚高,也正因为如此,本文还存在一些有待完善之处：(1)论文尝试性地应用生态学原理对金融问题进行了分析,但不够深入,有待拓展；(2)在运用层次分析法对中央银行的稳定效果进行检验时,各指标权重的确定主观成分过多,有待进一步完善；(3)缺乏运用生态学方法来解决金融领域方面的相关难题。比如,缺乏对当前国际金融危机形势下中央银行角色如何转轨进行深入分析。
There are the so-called Keystone species that process the significant roles for healthy and stability of the whole eco-systems. The author found that the central bank plays the similar role in the financial eco-systems by its direct supply for money, the food for most of biological populations in this system, and the guarantee to the formal performance of funds chain of it, even without any ability to direct control to other species in financial eco-systems.
In response to this interesting finding, this paper presents such a proposition: whether the central bank is the Keystone in the financial eco-systems or not? And there are the further questions we have:(1) what 'financial ecosystems' stands for? Is there any theory involved of the metaphor between the financial system and eco-system? And what kinds of assumptions are necessary to this task? (2) What kind of performance for the central bank in financial eco-systems? Is that Keystone one? What kind of relationship between it and other species in this system and how they coordinate to each other? (3) How to access the role of our central bank for Chinese eco-systems during the period of transition of economic-systems? Those are the main problem to be solved in this dissertation.
By the analyses of positive and normative economics, our researches are mainly about the systematic studies on the roles of the central bank within the financial eco-system. And the main contents are as follows:
Chapter One:Introduction. In which we illustrate the background and intention of our studies. We already found the significance of central bank during the further analyses to structures and functions of financial eco-systems just as what the Keystone performed in ecological systems. Therefore, the main proposition shows whether the central bank is the Keystone for financial eco-systems or not? To prove this, we organize this chapter as follows:illustration, analyses and solution to the given problem, plus we provided the brief introduction to each part. There is the instruction part to major methods applied in the dissertation and related conclusions in the end.
Chapter Two:The theoretical framework for financial eco-systems. Based on the related literatures involved of financial eco-systems form all over the world, we draw four assumptions for financial system simulating to ecological systems. Furthermore, from the viewpoint of bionics, we provide the definition, intension, characters, compositions, structures and the theoretical framework of metabolism and balance within financial eco-systems by applying the contents and related theories in ecological systems. Specifically, we stress that the evolution of financial eco-systems is the complex evolutionary process in which financial agents and their environments, time and space, elements of matter and conditions of environments are acting to each other.
Chapter Three:Monetary Circulation of Financial Eco-systems. Here, we define the monetary circulation in financial systems as follows:in SectionⅠ, we introduce the definition, characters and presenting methods for matter circulation. SectionⅡis mainly about the related research of demand and supply in existed monetary theories. SectionⅢprovides us a survey for money circulation including three main different theories for money circulation speed. In SectionⅣ, we focus on the discussion to the contents and related researches of money circulation in financial eco-systems, and explain money supply is both of endogenous and of exogenous according to the money circulation theories.
Chapter Four:The Relationship between Central Bank and Financial Eco-systems. From the viewpoint of money circulation theories, we define the relationship between central bank and financial eco-systems such as:First, we analyze the pathway of evolution for central bank within the financial eco-systems based on the money circulation theories. Secondly, we well proved that central bank is the Keystone spice for financial eco-systems according to the principle of Keystone. Third, we discuss the relationship between central bank and other spices in money circulation. Forth, based on evolution theories, we illustrate the complicated interactions central bank and its financial ecological environments.
Chapter Five:Central Bank is the Main Valve to money circulation. There are two major aspects to prove the central bank as the main valve to money circulation such as currency issuance and payment & settlement. There are five detail aspects for this problem:(1) We illustrate that the integrated issuance of currency is the central power to driving the evolution of central bank in financial eco-systems. (2) We introduce the contents, categories, channels and procedures of currency issuance, and its reserve institutions. (3) We induce the changing trends for currency issuance institutions in the range. (4) There is the brief presentation to changing history of currency issuance of Chinese central banks. (5) We make the further discussions on intensions principles, main contents for the action to money circulation making by central bank, and Chinese specific case analysis.
Chapter Six:Central Bank as Money Circulation Remoter. From the viewpoint of supply pathway for money circulation, we discussed the role of central bank as money circulation 'remoter', which is the prime role for central bank. Specifically, we organize this chapter as follows:(1) We illustrate the intension, main contents and working principles of money circulation remoter. (2) Based on the viewpoint of financial eco-systems, we argue the efficiency money circulation controlled by central bank, and its main elements. (3) From the viewpoint of space, we provide a survey for various institutional changing pathway of money circulation controlled by central bank. (4) We test the effect of money circulation controlled by Chinese central bank positive methods. (5) There are some policy advices to enhance the efficiency of central bank's monetary control.
Chapter Seven:Central Bank as the Ballast to Money Circulation. From the viewpoint of demand pathway for money circulation, we discuss the role of central bank as ballast to money circulation. In SectionⅠ, we provide the definition, intension, changing pathway and working principles of ballast to money circulation. SectionⅡprovides us the main content actions of central bank as ballast to money circulation. In SectionⅢ, we illustrate institutional framework cases that central bank is in charge of the stability to money circulation from developed countries and transitional countries respectively. In SectionⅣ, we introduce the changing pathway of ballast role for Chinese central bank, and test its efficiency by positive methods. Finally, we provide some policy advices to enhance the ballast role of central bank's money circulation control.
Chapter Eight:The main thesis of this chapter is to draw a brief summary of the work and conclusions about the paper. Furthermore, prospects on the direction of future research in conjunction with the current financial crisis.
There are the innovative points in this dissertation such as:
Firstly, we provide a bright new viewpoint for researches on financial performance and financial risk management by the introduction of Financial Eco-systems. Based on related studies, we provide a division to the evolution of financial eco-systems theory including financial development theory, financial resources theory, financial coordination theory and financial eco-systems theory, and furthermore, illustrate four fundamental assumptions for financial eco-systems. We point out that the origin of vulnerability of financial eco-systems is from strong interactions, artificial character among those elements, and the vulnerability of money & credit caused by the characters such as multi-direction, reversibility, diffusion in the procedure of matter exchange and energy flows.
The second, Money circulation is the central function of financial eco-systems, and its main characters different from the matter circulation are as follows:(1) Bi-direction. Since money circulation includes the processes both from producer to decomposer through consumer, and from decomposer to producer through consumer, there is an issue for endogenous and exogenous in monetary theories. (2) Adjustability. From the viewpoint of supply pathway in money circulation, central bank could conduct the reasonable control on the matter exchange between consumer and him to realize the healthy well-ordered development of financial eco-systems. (3) Adaptation. From the viewpoint of demand pathway in money circulation, the inner and external environmental changes of financial eco-systems could change the exchange amount between decomposer and consumer, which forces central bank to create money passively for the stability of financial eco-systems. Therefore, from the viewpoint of money circulation, we think that money is both endogenous and exogenous.
Thirdly, Central bank originates from the evolutionary process of money circulation and credit flows in financial eco-systems, which has three main functions for the system:(1) The main valve to money circulation for financial eco-systems. (2) Money circulation remoter for financial eco-systems. (3) The ballast to money circulation for financial eco-systems. Based on these functions, central bank is the fatal element to financial eco-systems, which will affect its structures and functions, and seriously influence the behaviors from other species such as governments, commercial bank, corporations and residents as well. Central bank is the Keystone for financial eco-systems, as our thoughts.
Fourthly, as the main valve to money circulation, central bank has two major roles:(1) Provide food to other species (currency issuance). (2) provide the facility (payment & settlement) for money circulation between consumers (populations of financial institutions). On one hand, as the producer of money circulation in financial eco-systems, one of central bank's main tasks is currency issuance, which provides the matter foundation for its "remoter'and'ballast'functions. On the other hand, according to the non-profitability and special monopoly position in currency issuance, central bank will never face the credit risk and liquidity risk, and at the same time, central bank holds the legal reserve for commercial banks, which facilitate the settlement between financial institutions.
Fifthly, from the supply pathway of money circulation, there are two ways for central bank to play its role as the remoter:money and credit transmissions. They are symbiotic, inter-dependent and indivisibly evolving overtime for the development of financial eco-systems evolution. We have the conclusions as follows:(1) there are two judging standards for the efficiency of money circulation controlled by central bank:(a) whether it is efficient in the long term or not? (b) Whether central bank could control the money circulation into the balance state? (2) During the short term, central bank could make the efficient control to money circulation in financial eco-systems, but in the long term, it would not work. (3) Based on the positive analysis, there is the efficient result for Chinese money governance in the short term by both credit and money pathways that interact to each other. But in the long term, it does not work well.
Sixthly, from the demand pathway of money circulation, the ballast role of central bank in money circulation is mainly from two aspects:(1) the governance to financial systems and financial market to maintain the normal operation of money circulation in financial eco-systems. (2) As the lender of last resort, central bank is in charge of stability of money circulation in financial eco-systems. We committed the related positive test to the effect as ballast for Chinese central bank. Overall, the stable level was increasing for the past decade, and average index is about 68.0, which presents that Chinese overall financial eco-system is in the normal stage with the low risk for financial crisis, but at the same time, shows Chinese central bank had the increasing trend for its ballast role.
However, financial eco-systems is a very complicated problem that includes the knowledge form ecology, bionics, evolutionary economics, finance and econometrics etc. which required rich theoretical experiences and insights. Therefore, there are some unsolved problems as below:(1) we applied the principles from ecology to analyze the financial problem, but it is not perfect yet. (2) There is too much subjective element in the weight setting of our positive analyses. (3) We did not have enough ecological methods to solve financial problems.
引文
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