人民币汇率变动对我国旅游经济的影响
|
摘要
在一个国家经济的对外开放发展过程中,汇率的变动一直对国民经济的各个方面产生着现实的影响。近年来,尽管美、日、欧三大经济体以及全球经济持续低迷,但我国仍有大量外资流入,外贸持续盈余,外汇储备总量快速增加,人民币贬值的预期逆转为人民币升值的预期。
2005 年 7 月 21 日,中国人民银行宣布人民币汇率不再盯住单一美元,而是根据市场发育状况和经济金融形势,以市场供求为基础,参考一篮子货币汇率变动,适时地对人民币汇率进行管理和调节,保持人民币汇率在合理、均衡水平上的基本稳定。在实行新汇率形成机制的同时,美元对人民币交易价格调整为 1 美元兑 8.11元人民币(即人民币兑美元升值 2%),作为次日银行间在外汇市场上外汇指定银行间交易的中间价。在美元汇率持续下跌的背景下,实际摆脱“钉住美元”汇率制度的人民币却逆转为升值,不可避免地使我国旅游经济再次受到关注,成为热门话题。
自 1949 年中华人民共和国的成立到 1978 年改革开放政策实施之前的近 30 年时间里,旅游业没有实现其真正意义上的经济功能。直到 1978 年,改革开放的重大决策使中国的旅游业逐渐发展成一个初具规模的独立产业。在 1978 年至 1991 年的“发育期”期间,国家明确了旅游活动的经济功能,入境旅游迅速崛起,旅游经济活动日益成为社会经济活动中的一部分,旅游产业渐具规模,市场管理体系也逐步成熟,只是这期间还没有脱离计划经济的基本框架。从 1992 年起到现在的“成长期”期间,我国实现了旅游业的常规发展,形成了入境旅游、出境旅游和国内旅游三个稳定的市场,政策措施以及法令法规不断出台,中国步入世界旅游大国的行列。截至 2005 年底,中国公民出境总人数达到 3102.63 万人次,中国入境旅游人数达 1.2 亿人次,入境过夜旅游人数达 4680 万人次,全国旅游总收入达到 7650 亿
In the march of a country's economy opening, currency exchange rate do effectstrongly many national economic fields. In recent years, although some westerncountries' economy keep low situation, our China's economy keeps upgrading.
On 21July2005, People's Bank of China announced a brand new policy about CNYcurrency (RMB), which presented the currency rate of RMB would not follow USD anymore, but can be managed and adjusted according to the fluctuation of the packagecurrencies and the market needs , the rate was also changed into 1:8.11 as the bankingtransaction middle price of the following day. This change raised a new wave, andpushed our Travel & Tourism Economy to be a hot topic again.
From 1949 to 1978, People's Republic of China came into Beijing to Economyopening, within these nearly 30 years,our national Travel Economy didn't realize herreal economic function. Until 1978,the decision of Economy Reform and Openinghelped Chinese Travel Industry into a formal Industry. During 1978 to 1991, governmentclarified our national Travel and Tourism activity's economy function, Inbound Travelbusiness got a rapid development, Travel and Tourism Industry has become into a morepart of social economy. From 1992 to now , our National Travel and Tourism Industryrealized a formal development,Inbound, Outbound, Domestic 3 stable markets. By theend of 2005,31 Million Chinese citizen enjoyed Outbound Travel ,120 million foreignInbound Travel guests visited China,the whole Travel and Tourism Business Incomeachieved CNY765 billion。Recently, both Domestic Travel Companies and InternationalTravel Companies had a great development in our China, this development brought agreat energy to our National Travel and Tourism Industry.
Travel Service just means to combine and transfer some natural or cultural info fromone location to another location. During this process, meal, hotel, trans, visit, purchaseand entertainment are all included. Travel and Tourism service is also tradable,so in the international travel process, the RMB currency exchange rate will be sure tobring some effect to these 6 aspects.By now, our Chinese citizen in big cities have good consume ability, RMB'supgrading will be sure to push the Income Flexible Outbound Travel Consume;butmaybe a tiny influence to Inbound Travel Business.Our current Inbound international travel product is still at junior period, not holidayproduct, which is not sensitive to price, so if RMB dropped, our Inbound Travel Businessalso wont have a strong echo. For Outbound Business, generally,only the aboard localservice is related to foreign currency exchange rate, and the local service is less than 40%of the whole Outbound Service. So if RMB currency rate is flexible within only 3%,Outbound Business will have a fair calm increase.Facing such complex currency rate fluctuation influences, Travel industrycompanies experienced problems as : tour fair credit period too long, and etc. Once thecurrency rate changed, Travel Business Companies will feel hard to control the cost andbenefit. To evade unpleasant loss,this thesis suggested some solutions for governmentand enterprises.With the development of our national Economy, government have already changedtheir direct management into industry management. Some practical solution aresuggested in thesis, i.e. further modify Travel Industry Foreign Currency Bank AccountManagement, fairly better travel agencies' develop foreign currency capability.Travel Industry Enterprises should also select several internal and external solutionsto protect cost and benefit, based on some basic currency rate anticipation. For example,flexible to select currency to do quotation, to collect tour fair, adjust price with putting ona safety, take part in a foreign currency rate insurance, and so on.
If situation could be improved from both government and enterprises, and propersolutions were taken, the change of RMB currency rate , no matter which direction, bothcould do good to our national Travel and Tourism Industry.
2005 年 7 月 21 日,中国人民银行宣布人民币汇率不再盯住单一美元,而是根据市场发育状况和经济金融形势,以市场供求为基础,参考一篮子货币汇率变动,适时地对人民币汇率进行管理和调节,保持人民币汇率在合理、均衡水平上的基本稳定。在实行新汇率形成机制的同时,美元对人民币交易价格调整为 1 美元兑 8.11元人民币(即人民币兑美元升值 2%),作为次日银行间在外汇市场上外汇指定银行间交易的中间价。在美元汇率持续下跌的背景下,实际摆脱“钉住美元”汇率制度的人民币却逆转为升值,不可避免地使我国旅游经济再次受到关注,成为热门话题。
自 1949 年中华人民共和国的成立到 1978 年改革开放政策实施之前的近 30 年时间里,旅游业没有实现其真正意义上的经济功能。直到 1978 年,改革开放的重大决策使中国的旅游业逐渐发展成一个初具规模的独立产业。在 1978 年至 1991 年的“发育期”期间,国家明确了旅游活动的经济功能,入境旅游迅速崛起,旅游经济活动日益成为社会经济活动中的一部分,旅游产业渐具规模,市场管理体系也逐步成熟,只是这期间还没有脱离计划经济的基本框架。从 1992 年起到现在的“成长期”期间,我国实现了旅游业的常规发展,形成了入境旅游、出境旅游和国内旅游三个稳定的市场,政策措施以及法令法规不断出台,中国步入世界旅游大国的行列。截至 2005 年底,中国公民出境总人数达到 3102.63 万人次,中国入境旅游人数达 1.2 亿人次,入境过夜旅游人数达 4680 万人次,全国旅游总收入达到 7650 亿
In the march of a country's economy opening, currency exchange rate do effectstrongly many national economic fields. In recent years, although some westerncountries' economy keep low situation, our China's economy keeps upgrading.
On 21July2005, People's Bank of China announced a brand new policy about CNYcurrency (RMB), which presented the currency rate of RMB would not follow USD anymore, but can be managed and adjusted according to the fluctuation of the packagecurrencies and the market needs , the rate was also changed into 1:8.11 as the bankingtransaction middle price of the following day. This change raised a new wave, andpushed our Travel & Tourism Economy to be a hot topic again.
From 1949 to 1978, People's Republic of China came into Beijing to Economyopening, within these nearly 30 years,our national Travel Economy didn't realize herreal economic function. Until 1978,the decision of Economy Reform and Openinghelped Chinese Travel Industry into a formal Industry. During 1978 to 1991, governmentclarified our national Travel and Tourism activity's economy function, Inbound Travelbusiness got a rapid development, Travel and Tourism Industry has become into a morepart of social economy. From 1992 to now , our National Travel and Tourism Industryrealized a formal development,Inbound, Outbound, Domestic 3 stable markets. By theend of 2005,31 Million Chinese citizen enjoyed Outbound Travel ,120 million foreignInbound Travel guests visited China,the whole Travel and Tourism Business Incomeachieved CNY765 billion。Recently, both Domestic Travel Companies and InternationalTravel Companies had a great development in our China, this development brought agreat energy to our National Travel and Tourism Industry.
Travel Service just means to combine and transfer some natural or cultural info fromone location to another location. During this process, meal, hotel, trans, visit, purchaseand entertainment are all included. Travel and Tourism service is also tradable,so in the international travel process, the RMB currency exchange rate will be sure tobring some effect to these 6 aspects.By now, our Chinese citizen in big cities have good consume ability, RMB'supgrading will be sure to push the Income Flexible Outbound Travel Consume;butmaybe a tiny influence to Inbound Travel Business.Our current Inbound international travel product is still at junior period, not holidayproduct, which is not sensitive to price, so if RMB dropped, our Inbound Travel Businessalso wont have a strong echo. For Outbound Business, generally,only the aboard localservice is related to foreign currency exchange rate, and the local service is less than 40%of the whole Outbound Service. So if RMB currency rate is flexible within only 3%,Outbound Business will have a fair calm increase.Facing such complex currency rate fluctuation influences, Travel industrycompanies experienced problems as : tour fair credit period too long, and etc. Once thecurrency rate changed, Travel Business Companies will feel hard to control the cost andbenefit. To evade unpleasant loss,this thesis suggested some solutions for governmentand enterprises.With the development of our national Economy, government have already changedtheir direct management into industry management. Some practical solution aresuggested in thesis, i.e. further modify Travel Industry Foreign Currency Bank AccountManagement, fairly better travel agencies' develop foreign currency capability.Travel Industry Enterprises should also select several internal and external solutionsto protect cost and benefit, based on some basic currency rate anticipation. For example,flexible to select currency to do quotation, to collect tour fair, adjust price with putting ona safety, take part in a foreign currency rate insurance, and so on.
If situation could be improved from both government and enterprises, and propersolutions were taken, the change of RMB currency rate , no matter which direction, bothcould do good to our national Travel and Tourism Industry.
引文
[1] 黄福才 旅游学概论 厦门大学出版社 2001 年 9 月
[2] 李天元编著 旅游学概论第五版 南开大学出版社 2003 年 7 月
[3] 2006 年中国家旅行社游市场研究预测报告 2005 年 11 月 1 日
[4] 佩吉/保罗 "布伦特/格雷厄姆 "巴斯比/乔 "康奈尔 现代旅游管理导论 电子工业出版社 2004 年 5 月
[5] 1997 年 3 月 17 日国务院批准,1997 年 7 月 1 日国家旅游局,公安部发布
[6] 张广瑞 社会科学文献出版社 2004-2006 年-中国旅游发展分析与预测 2006年 3 月 1 日
[7] 杜 江 旅游企业跨国经营战略研究 2001
[8] 杨 婷 汇率变动将刷新旅游格局 2005 年 6 月 1 日
[9] 唐留雄 现代旅游产业经济学 广东旅游出版社 2001 年 1 月
[10] 罗明义 旅游经济研究与探索 新视野旅游研究丛书 云南大学出版社 2004-10-01
[11] 方增福 旅行社管理 科学出版社 2006 年 1 月
[12] 虞洪波 朱戈倩 方秀文 [旅游]一年多赚两百万 线路品质会凸显 2005 年07 月 22 日
[13]张秉训 国际金融研究 期刊中国银行国际金融研究所 中国国际金融学会
[14] 刘怡 政府在旅游业中的作用 2005-11-11
[15] 王光伟 我国当前货币政策效果与外汇管理体制改革 苏州大学财经学院
[16] 高清 外汇管理的规范与效率 浙江金融 2003 年 2 期
[17] 王 健 马小芳 企业如何应对浮动汇率 中国经济出版社 2005 年 10 月
[18] 冯菊平 国际游资与汇率风险 中国经济出版社 2006 年 2 月
[19] 吴丽华 外汇业务操作与风险管理 厦门大学财经类优秀教材 2003 年 4 月第 1 版
[2] 李天元编著 旅游学概论第五版 南开大学出版社 2003 年 7 月
[3] 2006 年中国家旅行社游市场研究预测报告 2005 年 11 月 1 日
[4] 佩吉/保罗 "布伦特/格雷厄姆 "巴斯比/乔 "康奈尔 现代旅游管理导论 电子工业出版社 2004 年 5 月
[5] 1997 年 3 月 17 日国务院批准,1997 年 7 月 1 日国家旅游局,公安部发布
[6] 张广瑞 社会科学文献出版社 2004-2006 年-中国旅游发展分析与预测 2006年 3 月 1 日
[7] 杜 江 旅游企业跨国经营战略研究 2001
[8] 杨 婷 汇率变动将刷新旅游格局 2005 年 6 月 1 日
[9] 唐留雄 现代旅游产业经济学 广东旅游出版社 2001 年 1 月
[10] 罗明义 旅游经济研究与探索 新视野旅游研究丛书 云南大学出版社 2004-10-01
[11] 方增福 旅行社管理 科学出版社 2006 年 1 月
[12] 虞洪波 朱戈倩 方秀文 [旅游]一年多赚两百万 线路品质会凸显 2005 年07 月 22 日
[13]张秉训 国际金融研究 期刊中国银行国际金融研究所 中国国际金融学会
[14] 刘怡 政府在旅游业中的作用 2005-11-11
[15] 王光伟 我国当前货币政策效果与外汇管理体制改革 苏州大学财经学院
[16] 高清 外汇管理的规范与效率 浙江金融 2003 年 2 期
[17] 王 健 马小芳 企业如何应对浮动汇率 中国经济出版社 2005 年 10 月
[18] 冯菊平 国际游资与汇率风险 中国经济出版社 2006 年 2 月
[19] 吴丽华 外汇业务操作与风险管理 厦门大学财经类优秀教材 2003 年 4 月第 1 版