农业上市公司价值评估与价值创造研究
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摘要
农业上市公司的诞生与发展,对于我国农业产业结构调整,促进农业产业化经营,提高农产品质量和农业经营效益,提升我国农业国际竞争力,加快实现我国农业现代化都具有非常重要的意义。然而近年来,我国农业上市公司在不断发展的同时,暴露出诸如多元化经营失误,主营业务衰退,公司经营绩效下滑,市场表现不佳等一系列问题,严重影响了农业上市公司的市场竞争力和可持续发展能力。从产业经济层面考虑,农业上市公司经营绩效下滑是因为农业本身的弱质性无法得到克服?还是农业上市公司的资本创值能力和途径应予以提升和完善?或者意味着国家对农业上市公司投入大量资金、给予大量优惠措施进行扶持的政策应当做出必要修正?如何促进农业产业化经营,提高农产品质量和农业经营效益?这些问题显然对于完善我国农业产业结构调整,使政府金融资源合理配置于农业产业,促进国家农业产业政策有效平衡协调,加快实现我国农业现代化极为重要。农业上市公司的资本创值能力集中反映农业上市公司发展状况,客观评价农业上市公司经营绩效,深入分析影响农业上市公司经营绩效的实质性因素,寻找提升农业上市公司资本创值能力的战略途径,具有极为重要的理论和现实意义。本文正是基于这一思考展开研究的。
本研究以基于价值管理目的的价值评估和价值创造为研究内容,以农业上市公司价值创造能力为基本出发点和主要研究对象,运用价值评估理论、绩效评价理论、现代企业理论、农业产业化理论等,综合农业经济学、公司财务学、金融学等学科相关知识,采用规范分析与实证分析相结合的研究方法,系统分析农业上市公司的资本创值水平。本研究的主要思路是,引入EVA估值方法评价农业上市公司的创值能力,通过因子分析对农业上市公司经营绩效及相关影响因素进行客观评价,以因子分析、回归分析、相关分析、财务分析等手段,对影响农业上市公司资本创值能力的重要因素进行解剖,解析农业上市公司EVA创值水平的变化特征及其本质成因,并根据影响企业创值能力的公因子与EVA指标相关性的实证解析结果,探寻提升农业上市公司价值创造能力的战略路径。在此基础上,综合上述分析提出相应政策建议。研究主要分为以下几个部分：
第一部分主要提出农业价值评估与价值创造研究的目的和意义,界定有关重要概念,明确本文的研究目的、方法、内容和结构安排、创新与研究局限等。对有关农业上市公司价值评估与价值创造研究的文献进行回顾和综述,以公司价值评估理论思想为基础,对国内外学者有关价值评估与价值创造的研究内容、方法以及研究结论加以归纳和述评,为本文将要开展的农业上市公司价值评估与价值创造研究提供借鉴。
第二部分是企业价值评估方法的比较研究。分别从企业内在价值理论——收益现值方法和企业市场价值——相对比较方法两个视角阐述和梳理企业价值评估理论。论文深入讨论了企业价值创造活动和企业价值驱动因素,分别分析比较了企业价值理论、评估目的、评估假设和不同的企业价值计量模型以及价值评估方法的基本要求与限定。理论研究表明：价值管理的本质是基于价值创造的现金流管理,价值管理的核心就是价值评估与价值创造。因此,本研究留出足够多的篇幅和足够大的容量从方法论上研究探讨企业价值评估方法和评估模型,并引出优化的理论模型——EVA法,以满足规范研究对理论和方法体系的要求,为实证研究提供理论分析框架。
第三部分构建应用模型：EVA价值评估法。从EVA的经济含义和创值理念出发,进行EVA理论模型的推导与修正,从定性和定量两个方面分析EVA价值评价体系在企业价值管理中的应用问题。在此基础上,对EVA企业业绩评价模型和方法进行构建,明确计算EVA指标的关键变量,并分析EVA创值指标在我国资本市场的适应性。
第四部分农业上市公司的EVA实证分析。选用适当样本,以农业上市公司年度财务报告为基础,运用EVA计量模型对农业上市公司的价值创造水平进行评估,计算各样本公司的经济增加值,定量评价农业上市公司的经营绩效与资本创值能力,分析样本公司EVA指标升降的影响因素,探寻影响农业上市公司价值创造能力的本质原因。本文的实证分析说明EVA指标可以克服传统绩效评价指标的缺陷,更加客观有效的评价企业的价值创造能力。
第五部分农业上市公司的价值创造研究。运用因子分析、回归分析的研究方法,对农业上市公司资本创值水平的变化特征及其成因展开进一步解析。首先建立因子分析所需的反映企业创值能力的评价指标,运用因子分析方法筛选出评价企业价值增长能力的公因子,对相同样本农业上市公司的经营绩效进行统计描述和因子分析,解释各相关因素对农业上市公司价值创造能力的影响。然后运用回归方法实证解析影响企业创值能力的公因子与EVA指标的相关性,探寻提升农业上市公司价值创造能力的战略路径。
第六部分总结本文的主要结论,并提出相应的政策建议。本文实证研究结果表明我国农业上市公司资本创值能力较低,整体业绩水平偏差。决定农业上市公司创值水平的关键因素是企业的盈利能力、资本成本和成长性。应充分认识农业上市公司提升创值能力的重要性,政府扶持政策应以市场化为导向,合理配置金融资源,完善农业上市公司融资结构。EVA比传统会计指标对企业创值能力有更高的解释力。为促使我国证券市场的长期发展,形成健康发展的微观基础,引进EVA创值理论进行企业价值管理已是必然之事。
The establishment and development of listed agricultural companies are of great significance to the agricultural structure adjustment and the industrial management of agriculture, the improvement of the quality of produces and marketing profits, the enhancement of the international competence of agriculture and the acceleration of agricultural modernization in China. But in recent years, with the development of the listed agricultural companies in China, many problems present themselves which severely affect the market competence and sustainable development of these companies, such as misses in multi-management, the main businesses recession, the decline of company performance, bad marketing and so on. From the perspective of industrial economics, is the decline of performance of these companies caused by the weaknesses of agriculture itself, or do the Value Creation capacity and methods of these companies need promoting, or does the government policy of mass investment and favorable measures need necessary adjustment? How to promote the operation of agricultural industry? How to improve the quality of produces as well as the profits of agriculture? These issues obviously play an important role in improving the adjustment of agricultural, the proper configuration of government financial investment in agriculture, the effective coordination of agricultural policies and the acceleration of agricultural modernization. The capital making capacity reflects the development of a listed agricultural company, objectively observes its performance, analyses in depth the real factors of the performance, and looks for strategies to enhance capital making capacity, which are of great theoretical and practical significance. This paper is laid out on such basis.
The contents of this research are indicator value assessment (IVA) and economic value added (EVA) aimed at value management, with Value Creation capacity of listed agricultural companies as its basic start point and main research object. It applies indicator value assessment (IVA) theory, performance evaluation theory, modern enterprise theory, agricultural industrialization theory, and relevant knowledge of comprehensive agricultural economics, company financials, finances and so on, and by the methods of regular analyses and empirical analyses, systematically analyzes the capital making capacity of listed agricultural companies. The main observing root of this research is assessing the Value Creation capacity of these companies by EVA, objectively evaluating the performance and affecting factors by factors analysis, anatomizing these factors by factor analysis, regression analysis, correlation analysis, financial analysis and so on, elaborating the changing characteristics and essential causes of the EVA Value Creation capacity of these companies, and based on these results, exploring strategies for promoting their Value Creation capacity. On this basis, corresponding policies and advices are presented. This research is divided as following parts:
The first part puts forward the objective and significance of this research, defines important conceptions, establishes the objective, methods, content, structure, and innovation, as well as research limits of this paper, makes a review of relevant literatures, introduces the development outlook, apprises the thinking basis of value assessment theory, and discusses problems such as agricultural industrialization and capital market compatibility and so on.
The second part is the comparative Study of enterprises value assessment. It separately compares the two internal value theories of enterprises, the present value of earnings and the market value of enterprises, elaborating the enterprises value assessment theory. This paper discusses the activities and motivations of enterprises Value Creation, separately analyses and compares the enterprises value assessment theory, the objective, the hypothesis, and the value computation models of different enterprises and the basic requirements and limits of assessing methods. Theoretical research demonstrates that the essence of value management is based the capital flow management of Value Creation, and that the core of value management is value assessment and Value Creation. So this research sets aside enough spaces to explore enterprises value assessment methods and models by methodology, introduces optimized theory model-EVA in order to regularize the research requirements of theory and methodology, and supply theoretical analysis frames for empirical research.
The third part composes application model:EVA value assessment. Starting from the economical signification and Value Creation conception, this part deduces and modifies the EVA theory, and analyzes the application of EVA value assessment system in enterprises value management from the two aspects of stable characteristics and quantity. On this basis, It composes the models and methods of EVA enterprises performance assessment, correctly calculates the key variable of EVA index, and analyzes the compatibility of such index in China's capital market.
The fourth part is the empirical analysis of listed agricultural companies. By selecting proper examples and based on the annual reports of these companies, it applies EVA computation model to assess the Value Creation capacity of these companies, calculates all kinds of economic added values of these companies, quantitative assesses the performance and capital making capacity of these companies, analyzes the affecting factors of the EVA index of corresponding companies, and explores the essential causes of the influences on the Value Creation capacity of these companies. The empirical analyses of this paper demonstrate that EVA index can overcome the disadvantages of traditional performance assessment index, and observes the Value Creation capacity of enterprises more objectively and effectively.
The fifth part is the research on the Value Creation of listed agricultural companies. By the methods of factor analysis and regression analysis, it elaborates the changing characteristics and causes of capital making capacity of these companies. Firstly, it establishes the assessment index required by factor analysis, selects the common factors of such assessment by the method of factor analysis, describes and factor-analyzes the performance of same example companies, explains the influence of the relevant factors on capacities; and then empirically demonstrates the pertinence of the common factors and the EVA index by regression analysis, and explores the strategies to promote the capacity.
The sixth part sums up the main conclusion of this paper and presents corresponding advices. The empirical result of this paper shows that the Value Creation capacity of listed agricultural companies in China is comparatively low, and so as the through performance. The key factors that deciding the capacity are the profit-making ability, capital costs and development characteristics. The importance of the Value Creation capacity of listed agricultural companies should be fully understood. The supporting policies of the government should be directed by the market, properly configuring financial resources and perfecting the financial structures of these companies. EVA has higher explaining ability of Value Creation capacity than traditional accounting index. To facilitate the long-term development of the securities business in China and form the micro-basis for healthy development, the introduction of EVA Value Creation theory to execute enterprises value management is necessary.
本研究以基于价值管理目的的价值评估和价值创造为研究内容,以农业上市公司价值创造能力为基本出发点和主要研究对象,运用价值评估理论、绩效评价理论、现代企业理论、农业产业化理论等,综合农业经济学、公司财务学、金融学等学科相关知识,采用规范分析与实证分析相结合的研究方法,系统分析农业上市公司的资本创值水平。本研究的主要思路是,引入EVA估值方法评价农业上市公司的创值能力,通过因子分析对农业上市公司经营绩效及相关影响因素进行客观评价,以因子分析、回归分析、相关分析、财务分析等手段,对影响农业上市公司资本创值能力的重要因素进行解剖,解析农业上市公司EVA创值水平的变化特征及其本质成因,并根据影响企业创值能力的公因子与EVA指标相关性的实证解析结果,探寻提升农业上市公司价值创造能力的战略路径。在此基础上,综合上述分析提出相应政策建议。研究主要分为以下几个部分：
第一部分主要提出农业价值评估与价值创造研究的目的和意义,界定有关重要概念,明确本文的研究目的、方法、内容和结构安排、创新与研究局限等。对有关农业上市公司价值评估与价值创造研究的文献进行回顾和综述,以公司价值评估理论思想为基础,对国内外学者有关价值评估与价值创造的研究内容、方法以及研究结论加以归纳和述评,为本文将要开展的农业上市公司价值评估与价值创造研究提供借鉴。
第二部分是企业价值评估方法的比较研究。分别从企业内在价值理论——收益现值方法和企业市场价值——相对比较方法两个视角阐述和梳理企业价值评估理论。论文深入讨论了企业价值创造活动和企业价值驱动因素,分别分析比较了企业价值理论、评估目的、评估假设和不同的企业价值计量模型以及价值评估方法的基本要求与限定。理论研究表明：价值管理的本质是基于价值创造的现金流管理,价值管理的核心就是价值评估与价值创造。因此,本研究留出足够多的篇幅和足够大的容量从方法论上研究探讨企业价值评估方法和评估模型,并引出优化的理论模型——EVA法,以满足规范研究对理论和方法体系的要求,为实证研究提供理论分析框架。
第三部分构建应用模型：EVA价值评估法。从EVA的经济含义和创值理念出发,进行EVA理论模型的推导与修正,从定性和定量两个方面分析EVA价值评价体系在企业价值管理中的应用问题。在此基础上,对EVA企业业绩评价模型和方法进行构建,明确计算EVA指标的关键变量,并分析EVA创值指标在我国资本市场的适应性。
第四部分农业上市公司的EVA实证分析。选用适当样本,以农业上市公司年度财务报告为基础,运用EVA计量模型对农业上市公司的价值创造水平进行评估,计算各样本公司的经济增加值,定量评价农业上市公司的经营绩效与资本创值能力,分析样本公司EVA指标升降的影响因素,探寻影响农业上市公司价值创造能力的本质原因。本文的实证分析说明EVA指标可以克服传统绩效评价指标的缺陷,更加客观有效的评价企业的价值创造能力。
第五部分农业上市公司的价值创造研究。运用因子分析、回归分析的研究方法,对农业上市公司资本创值水平的变化特征及其成因展开进一步解析。首先建立因子分析所需的反映企业创值能力的评价指标,运用因子分析方法筛选出评价企业价值增长能力的公因子,对相同样本农业上市公司的经营绩效进行统计描述和因子分析,解释各相关因素对农业上市公司价值创造能力的影响。然后运用回归方法实证解析影响企业创值能力的公因子与EVA指标的相关性,探寻提升农业上市公司价值创造能力的战略路径。
第六部分总结本文的主要结论,并提出相应的政策建议。本文实证研究结果表明我国农业上市公司资本创值能力较低,整体业绩水平偏差。决定农业上市公司创值水平的关键因素是企业的盈利能力、资本成本和成长性。应充分认识农业上市公司提升创值能力的重要性,政府扶持政策应以市场化为导向,合理配置金融资源,完善农业上市公司融资结构。EVA比传统会计指标对企业创值能力有更高的解释力。为促使我国证券市场的长期发展,形成健康发展的微观基础,引进EVA创值理论进行企业价值管理已是必然之事。
The establishment and development of listed agricultural companies are of great significance to the agricultural structure adjustment and the industrial management of agriculture, the improvement of the quality of produces and marketing profits, the enhancement of the international competence of agriculture and the acceleration of agricultural modernization in China. But in recent years, with the development of the listed agricultural companies in China, many problems present themselves which severely affect the market competence and sustainable development of these companies, such as misses in multi-management, the main businesses recession, the decline of company performance, bad marketing and so on. From the perspective of industrial economics, is the decline of performance of these companies caused by the weaknesses of agriculture itself, or do the Value Creation capacity and methods of these companies need promoting, or does the government policy of mass investment and favorable measures need necessary adjustment? How to promote the operation of agricultural industry? How to improve the quality of produces as well as the profits of agriculture? These issues obviously play an important role in improving the adjustment of agricultural, the proper configuration of government financial investment in agriculture, the effective coordination of agricultural policies and the acceleration of agricultural modernization. The capital making capacity reflects the development of a listed agricultural company, objectively observes its performance, analyses in depth the real factors of the performance, and looks for strategies to enhance capital making capacity, which are of great theoretical and practical significance. This paper is laid out on such basis.
The contents of this research are indicator value assessment (IVA) and economic value added (EVA) aimed at value management, with Value Creation capacity of listed agricultural companies as its basic start point and main research object. It applies indicator value assessment (IVA) theory, performance evaluation theory, modern enterprise theory, agricultural industrialization theory, and relevant knowledge of comprehensive agricultural economics, company financials, finances and so on, and by the methods of regular analyses and empirical analyses, systematically analyzes the capital making capacity of listed agricultural companies. The main observing root of this research is assessing the Value Creation capacity of these companies by EVA, objectively evaluating the performance and affecting factors by factors analysis, anatomizing these factors by factor analysis, regression analysis, correlation analysis, financial analysis and so on, elaborating the changing characteristics and essential causes of the EVA Value Creation capacity of these companies, and based on these results, exploring strategies for promoting their Value Creation capacity. On this basis, corresponding policies and advices are presented. This research is divided as following parts:
The first part puts forward the objective and significance of this research, defines important conceptions, establishes the objective, methods, content, structure, and innovation, as well as research limits of this paper, makes a review of relevant literatures, introduces the development outlook, apprises the thinking basis of value assessment theory, and discusses problems such as agricultural industrialization and capital market compatibility and so on.
The second part is the comparative Study of enterprises value assessment. It separately compares the two internal value theories of enterprises, the present value of earnings and the market value of enterprises, elaborating the enterprises value assessment theory. This paper discusses the activities and motivations of enterprises Value Creation, separately analyses and compares the enterprises value assessment theory, the objective, the hypothesis, and the value computation models of different enterprises and the basic requirements and limits of assessing methods. Theoretical research demonstrates that the essence of value management is based the capital flow management of Value Creation, and that the core of value management is value assessment and Value Creation. So this research sets aside enough spaces to explore enterprises value assessment methods and models by methodology, introduces optimized theory model-EVA in order to regularize the research requirements of theory and methodology, and supply theoretical analysis frames for empirical research.
The third part composes application model:EVA value assessment. Starting from the economical signification and Value Creation conception, this part deduces and modifies the EVA theory, and analyzes the application of EVA value assessment system in enterprises value management from the two aspects of stable characteristics and quantity. On this basis, It composes the models and methods of EVA enterprises performance assessment, correctly calculates the key variable of EVA index, and analyzes the compatibility of such index in China's capital market.
The fourth part is the empirical analysis of listed agricultural companies. By selecting proper examples and based on the annual reports of these companies, it applies EVA computation model to assess the Value Creation capacity of these companies, calculates all kinds of economic added values of these companies, quantitative assesses the performance and capital making capacity of these companies, analyzes the affecting factors of the EVA index of corresponding companies, and explores the essential causes of the influences on the Value Creation capacity of these companies. The empirical analyses of this paper demonstrate that EVA index can overcome the disadvantages of traditional performance assessment index, and observes the Value Creation capacity of enterprises more objectively and effectively.
The fifth part is the research on the Value Creation of listed agricultural companies. By the methods of factor analysis and regression analysis, it elaborates the changing characteristics and causes of capital making capacity of these companies. Firstly, it establishes the assessment index required by factor analysis, selects the common factors of such assessment by the method of factor analysis, describes and factor-analyzes the performance of same example companies, explains the influence of the relevant factors on capacities; and then empirically demonstrates the pertinence of the common factors and the EVA index by regression analysis, and explores the strategies to promote the capacity.
The sixth part sums up the main conclusion of this paper and presents corresponding advices. The empirical result of this paper shows that the Value Creation capacity of listed agricultural companies in China is comparatively low, and so as the through performance. The key factors that deciding the capacity are the profit-making ability, capital costs and development characteristics. The importance of the Value Creation capacity of listed agricultural companies should be fully understood. The supporting policies of the government should be directed by the market, properly configuring financial resources and perfecting the financial structures of these companies. EVA has higher explaining ability of Value Creation capacity than traditional accounting index. To facilitate the long-term development of the securities business in China and form the micro-basis for healthy development, the introduction of EVA Value Creation theory to execute enterprises value management is necessary.
引文
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