中国商业银行效率的测度及其动态变化分析
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摘要
效率是经济学研究的核心问题之一,也是商业银行在经营管理中追求的目标。银行业的效率不仅表现为银行自身的经营绩效,是银行竞争力的集中体现,同时也反映了一国经济发展的内在质量。从长远来看,银行业的发展最终取决于效率。随着中国加入世界贸易组织,中外银行之间的竞争将更为激烈。因此本文研究中国银行业效率的测度及其动态变化,具有一定的理论意义和现实意义。
本文在回顾了大量国内外关于银行效率研究文献的基础上,首先运用非参数的数据包络分析方法(DEA)对中国商业银行(4家国有银行和11家新兴股份制银行)2002年～2004年间的成本效率、配置效率和技术效率等效率值进行了测度,并重点对其2004年的成本效率的现状和成本无效的来源作了详细的分析。然后通过引入基于DEA的Malmquist指数分析方法对中国银行业1999年～2004年的全要素生产率进行了计算,并分析了引起中国银行业生产率提高的主要因素。通过定量分析,本文主要得到的结论归纳如下:
(1)新兴股份制商业银行的平均效率值普遍高于国有商业银行的平均效率值,但差距有缩小的趋势。
(2)2002年与2003年相比,中国整个银行业呈明显的上升趋势,但2003年与2004年相比,新兴股份制商业银行的效率基本维持不变,国有商业银行的效率反而有一定的下降。
(3)国有商业银行2004年的成本无效主要来源于技术无效,而新兴股份制商业银行的成本无效既有主要来源于技术无效的,也有主要来源于配置无效的。
(4)新兴股份制商业银行的规模报酬情况基本处于规模报酬不变和规模报酬递增阶段,而四大国有银行大都处于规模不经济的规模报酬递减阶段。
(5)2002年～2004年间中国银行业全要素生产率年平均增长了9.3%,说明最近几年中国商业银行的生产率提高很快。
(6)中国银行业生产率的增长更多的是由技术变化造成的,也就是生产边界的移动引起的。这表明,随着近几年来银行管制的进一步放松,银行业业内的竞争得到增强,银行的创新行为(即前沿面移动效应)有力的提升了银行的生产率。
Efficiency is one of the core problems that the economics deals with. It is also the goal that commercial banks chase in their business administration. The efficiency of banking is not only in the individual bank's performance and its competence, but also the reflection of the intrinsic quality of the national economy development. The banking development depends on the efficiency in the long run, rather than the speed. After the entry to WTO, Chinese banking will be confronted with more fierce competitions between native and foreign banks. So it is meaningful in the theory and practice to do some work on the efficiency of Chinese banking.After the review of some related researches on foreign and native banking, this thesis first utilized the data envelope analysis method (DEA) to calculate the cost efficiency, the allocative efficiency and the technical efficiency of Chinese commercial banks(4 state-owned commercial banks and 11 newly founded joint-stock commercial banks) during the periods of 2002 to 2004. The thesis made the detailed analysis to present situation of cost efficiency and the origin of cost inefficiency. Then the thesis made the computation to the total factor productivity of Chinese banking industry during the periods of 1999 to 2004 through the introduction Malmquist index analysis based on DEA. Through the quantitative analysis, the conclusions which the thesis drew are as follows:(1) The efficiency of the newly founded joint-stock commercial banks is higher than the state-owned commercial banks in general, but the tendency of the gap is reducing.(2) Compared 2002 with 2003, the efficiency of the Chinese banking industry has an increasing tendency, but compared 2003 with 2004, the efficiency of the newly founded joint-stock commercial banks is invariable in general and the efficiency of the state-owned commercial banks is reducing.(3) The cost inefficiency of the state-owned commercial banks mainly roots in the technical inefficiency, but that of the newly founded joint-stock commercial banks mainly roots in not only technical inefficiency but also allocative inefficiency.(4) The newly founded joint-stock commercial banks are in the stage of constant
return to scale or increasing return to scale, while the state-owned commercial banks are mainly in the stage of decreasing return to scale.(5) The total factor productivity of Chinese banking industry has grown by 9.3% annually during the periods of 2002 to 2004, and it showed that the productivity of Chinese commercial banks had been enhanced quickly in recent years.(6) The growth of Chinese banking industry's productivity is mainly caused by the technical change (frontier shift). This showed that the competition of the banking industry had been enhanced and the innovation behavior (namely frontier shift effect) of the banks would increase the productivity of the banks with the loosing control on the banks in recent years.
本文在回顾了大量国内外关于银行效率研究文献的基础上,首先运用非参数的数据包络分析方法(DEA)对中国商业银行(4家国有银行和11家新兴股份制银行)2002年～2004年间的成本效率、配置效率和技术效率等效率值进行了测度,并重点对其2004年的成本效率的现状和成本无效的来源作了详细的分析。然后通过引入基于DEA的Malmquist指数分析方法对中国银行业1999年～2004年的全要素生产率进行了计算,并分析了引起中国银行业生产率提高的主要因素。通过定量分析,本文主要得到的结论归纳如下:
(1)新兴股份制商业银行的平均效率值普遍高于国有商业银行的平均效率值,但差距有缩小的趋势。
(2)2002年与2003年相比,中国整个银行业呈明显的上升趋势,但2003年与2004年相比,新兴股份制商业银行的效率基本维持不变,国有商业银行的效率反而有一定的下降。
(3)国有商业银行2004年的成本无效主要来源于技术无效,而新兴股份制商业银行的成本无效既有主要来源于技术无效的,也有主要来源于配置无效的。
(4)新兴股份制商业银行的规模报酬情况基本处于规模报酬不变和规模报酬递增阶段,而四大国有银行大都处于规模不经济的规模报酬递减阶段。
(5)2002年～2004年间中国银行业全要素生产率年平均增长了9.3%,说明最近几年中国商业银行的生产率提高很快。
(6)中国银行业生产率的增长更多的是由技术变化造成的,也就是生产边界的移动引起的。这表明,随着近几年来银行管制的进一步放松,银行业业内的竞争得到增强,银行的创新行为(即前沿面移动效应)有力的提升了银行的生产率。
Efficiency is one of the core problems that the economics deals with. It is also the goal that commercial banks chase in their business administration. The efficiency of banking is not only in the individual bank's performance and its competence, but also the reflection of the intrinsic quality of the national economy development. The banking development depends on the efficiency in the long run, rather than the speed. After the entry to WTO, Chinese banking will be confronted with more fierce competitions between native and foreign banks. So it is meaningful in the theory and practice to do some work on the efficiency of Chinese banking.After the review of some related researches on foreign and native banking, this thesis first utilized the data envelope analysis method (DEA) to calculate the cost efficiency, the allocative efficiency and the technical efficiency of Chinese commercial banks(4 state-owned commercial banks and 11 newly founded joint-stock commercial banks) during the periods of 2002 to 2004. The thesis made the detailed analysis to present situation of cost efficiency and the origin of cost inefficiency. Then the thesis made the computation to the total factor productivity of Chinese banking industry during the periods of 1999 to 2004 through the introduction Malmquist index analysis based on DEA. Through the quantitative analysis, the conclusions which the thesis drew are as follows:(1) The efficiency of the newly founded joint-stock commercial banks is higher than the state-owned commercial banks in general, but the tendency of the gap is reducing.(2) Compared 2002 with 2003, the efficiency of the Chinese banking industry has an increasing tendency, but compared 2003 with 2004, the efficiency of the newly founded joint-stock commercial banks is invariable in general and the efficiency of the state-owned commercial banks is reducing.(3) The cost inefficiency of the state-owned commercial banks mainly roots in the technical inefficiency, but that of the newly founded joint-stock commercial banks mainly roots in not only technical inefficiency but also allocative inefficiency.(4) The newly founded joint-stock commercial banks are in the stage of constant
return to scale or increasing return to scale, while the state-owned commercial banks are mainly in the stage of decreasing return to scale.(5) The total factor productivity of Chinese banking industry has grown by 9.3% annually during the periods of 2002 to 2004, and it showed that the productivity of Chinese commercial banks had been enhanced quickly in recent years.(6) The growth of Chinese banking industry's productivity is mainly caused by the technical change (frontier shift). This showed that the competition of the banking industry had been enhanced and the innovation behavior (namely frontier shift effect) of the banks would increase the productivity of the banks with the loosing control on the banks in recent years.
引文
[1] 保罗·萨缪尔森.经济学.第十七版.北京:人民邮电出版社,2004年1月
[2] Berger, Hunter, Timme. The efficiency of financial institutions: A review and preview of research past, present, and future, Journal of Banking and Finance, 1993 (17): 221～249
[3] Berger, Humphrey. Bank Scale Economies, Mergers, Concentration, and Efficiency: The U. S. Experience, The Wharton Financial Institutions Center Working Paper, 1994:94～125
[4] Berger, Mester. Inside the Black Box: What Explains Differences in the Efficiencies of Financial Institutions? Journal of Banking and Finance, 1997(21): 895～947
[5] Berger and De Young. Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks. Journal of Banking and Finance. 1997.21.849-870
[6] Leibenstein Harvey, Allocative Efficiency Vs 'X-Efficiency', American Economic Review, 1966.56.392-213
[7] Carbo, Gardener, Williams. Efficiency in Banking: Empirical Evidence from the Savings Banks Sector, The Manchester School, 2002 (70): 204-228
[8] 黄宪,王方宏.中国与德国的国有银行效率差异及其分析,世界经济,2003(3):71-78
[9] 于良春,高波.中国银行业规模效益与相关产业组织政策,中国工业经济,2003(3):40-48
[10] 赵旭.国有商业银行效率的实证研究,经济科学,2000(6):45-50
[11] 赵昕,薛俊波,殷克东.基于DEA的商业银行竞争力分析,数量经济技术经济研究,2002(9):84-87
[12] 秦宛顺,欧阳俊.我国国有独资商业银行的费用与规模偏好,金融研究,2002,(3):63-74
[13] 张健华.我国商业银行效率研究的DEA方法及1997—2001年效率的实证分析,金融研究,2003(3):11-25
[14] 张宗益,吴俊.银行效率研究中的前沿分析方法及其比较.经济学动态,2003,(4):38-40
[15] 孙会国,李泽广.中国商业银行效率状态及其变化趋势研究,中国金融学,2003(4):35-58
[16] 彭琦,邹康,赵子铱.1993-2003年中国银行业效率的实证分析——基于DEA测度技术的运用经济评论,2005(4):82-89
[17] 郑鸣.上市银行效率的比较分析,中国经济问题,2005(1):37-46
[18] Bauer, A. N., and Berger, and G. D. Ferrier, "Consistency Conditions for Regulator Analysis of Financial Institutions: A Comparison of Frontier Efficiency Methods," Journal of Economics and Business,1998.50.85-114
[19] Mukherjee, K., S. C. Ray, and S. Miller, "Productivity Growth in Large US Commercial Banks: The Initial Post-deregulation Experience," Journal of Banking & Finance, 2001.25.913-939
[20] Darrat, A. F., C. Topuz, and T. Yousef, "Assessing Cost and Technical Efficiency of Banks in Kuwait,"working paper,2002
[21] 张权,张世英.国有商业银行人力资源效率分析,甘肃社会科学,2004(2):115-120
[22] 陈刚.评价我国商业银行生产和有效性动态变化的Malmquist指数,决策借鉴,2002(10):31-35
[23] 樊刚.公有制宏观经济理论大纲,上海:三联书店,1990
[24] 赵旭.国有商业银行效率的实证分析,经济科学,2000(6):45-50
[25] 张超,顾锋,邸强.国外银行效率测度及其影响因素研究综述,外国经济与管理,2005(4):50-57
[26] Chames, A., W. Cooper, and E. Rhodes.(1978). "Measuring the efficiency of decision making units". European Journal of Operational Research 2, 429-444
[27] Berger, A. N, and Humphrey, D. B. Efficiency of financial institutions: international survey and directions for future research. European Journal of Operational Research, 1997,98(2): 175-212
[28] Michael Porter. Competitive Strategy, New York, 1980
[29] Sharin Master, Modern Competitive Analysis, Oxford University Press, 1994
[30] Farell, M. J., 1957, The measurement of productive efficiency, Journal of Royal Statical Society, Series A, General, 120, 253-281
[31] Fare, R., S. Grosskopf and C. A. K nox Lovell, 1985, The measurement of efficiency of production, Boston
[32] Sathye, M., "X-Efficiency in Australian Banking: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Banking and Finance,2001,25,613-630
[33] Avkiran, N. K., "The Evidence of Efficiency Gains: The Role of Mergers and the Benefits to the Public," Journal of Banking and Finance, 1999,23,991-1013
[34] Resti, A., "Banking System: What can be learned from the Joint Application of Parametric and Non-parametric Techniques," Journal of Banking and Finance, 1997,21,221-250
[35] Miller, S. M., A. Noulas, "Short-run Cost Infficiency of Commercial Banks: A Flexible Stochastic Frontier Approach," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 1994,20,495-509
[36] Piyu, "Operational efficiency in banking: in an international comparison," Journal of banking and financial, 1996(20): 655-672
[37] Zahid labal, Kizhanathan, "The output efficiency of minority-owned banks in the United States," International Review of Economics and Finance, 1999(8): 104-114
[38] 孙强.基于DEA的中国银行业经营效率分析,统计与决策,2005(8):87-90
[39] 刘汉涛.对我国商业银行效率的测度:DEA方法的应用,经济科学,2004(6):48-58
[40] 朱南,卓贤,董屹.关于我国国有商业银行效率的实证分析与改革策略,管理世界,
[41] Tim Coelli, D. S. Prasada Rao and George E. Battese, An introduction to efficiency and productivity analysis, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1998, 199-202
[42] Nunamaker, Using data envelopment analysis to measure the efficiency of non-profit organizations: A critical evaluation, Managerial and Decision Economics, 1985,6 (1): 50-68
[43] Tim Coelli, 1996, A Guide to DEAP Version 2.1: A Data Envelopment Analysis (Computer) Program, CEPA Working Paper 96/08
[44] Fare, Roll, Shawna Grosskopf. Average Products and Malmquist Productivity Indexes [M]. mimeo, 1994
[45] Fare, Rolf, Shawna Grosskopf, Mary Norris, Zhongyang Zhang. Productivity Growth, Technical Progress, and Efficiency Changes in Industrialized Countries[J]. American Economic Review, 1994,84
[46] Gary D. Ferrier. An Empirical Investigation of Productivity Change in U. S. Banking, 1977-1988[M]. The James H. Penick Financial Research Series, 1994
[47] 中国金融年鉴,北京:中国金融年鉴编辑部,2000—2005
[2] Berger, Hunter, Timme. The efficiency of financial institutions: A review and preview of research past, present, and future, Journal of Banking and Finance, 1993 (17): 221～249
[3] Berger, Humphrey. Bank Scale Economies, Mergers, Concentration, and Efficiency: The U. S. Experience, The Wharton Financial Institutions Center Working Paper, 1994:94～125
[4] Berger, Mester. Inside the Black Box: What Explains Differences in the Efficiencies of Financial Institutions? Journal of Banking and Finance, 1997(21): 895～947
[5] Berger and De Young. Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks. Journal of Banking and Finance. 1997.21.849-870
[6] Leibenstein Harvey, Allocative Efficiency Vs 'X-Efficiency', American Economic Review, 1966.56.392-213
[7] Carbo, Gardener, Williams. Efficiency in Banking: Empirical Evidence from the Savings Banks Sector, The Manchester School, 2002 (70): 204-228
[8] 黄宪,王方宏.中国与德国的国有银行效率差异及其分析,世界经济,2003(3):71-78
[9] 于良春,高波.中国银行业规模效益与相关产业组织政策,中国工业经济,2003(3):40-48
[10] 赵旭.国有商业银行效率的实证研究,经济科学,2000(6):45-50
[11] 赵昕,薛俊波,殷克东.基于DEA的商业银行竞争力分析,数量经济技术经济研究,2002(9):84-87
[12] 秦宛顺,欧阳俊.我国国有独资商业银行的费用与规模偏好,金融研究,2002,(3):63-74
[13] 张健华.我国商业银行效率研究的DEA方法及1997—2001年效率的实证分析,金融研究,2003(3):11-25
[14] 张宗益,吴俊.银行效率研究中的前沿分析方法及其比较.经济学动态,2003,(4):38-40
[15] 孙会国,李泽广.中国商业银行效率状态及其变化趋势研究,中国金融学,2003(4):35-58
[16] 彭琦,邹康,赵子铱.1993-2003年中国银行业效率的实证分析——基于DEA测度技术的运用经济评论,2005(4):82-89
[17] 郑鸣.上市银行效率的比较分析,中国经济问题,2005(1):37-46
[18] Bauer, A. N., and Berger, and G. D. Ferrier, "Consistency Conditions for Regulator Analysis of Financial Institutions: A Comparison of Frontier Efficiency Methods," Journal of Economics and Business,1998.50.85-114
[19] Mukherjee, K., S. C. Ray, and S. Miller, "Productivity Growth in Large US Commercial Banks: The Initial Post-deregulation Experience," Journal of Banking & Finance, 2001.25.913-939
[20] Darrat, A. F., C. Topuz, and T. Yousef, "Assessing Cost and Technical Efficiency of Banks in Kuwait,"working paper,2002
[21] 张权,张世英.国有商业银行人力资源效率分析,甘肃社会科学,2004(2):115-120
[22] 陈刚.评价我国商业银行生产和有效性动态变化的Malmquist指数,决策借鉴,2002(10):31-35
[23] 樊刚.公有制宏观经济理论大纲,上海:三联书店,1990
[24] 赵旭.国有商业银行效率的实证分析,经济科学,2000(6):45-50
[25] 张超,顾锋,邸强.国外银行效率测度及其影响因素研究综述,外国经济与管理,2005(4):50-57
[26] Chames, A., W. Cooper, and E. Rhodes.(1978). "Measuring the efficiency of decision making units". European Journal of Operational Research 2, 429-444
[27] Berger, A. N, and Humphrey, D. B. Efficiency of financial institutions: international survey and directions for future research. European Journal of Operational Research, 1997,98(2): 175-212
[28] Michael Porter. Competitive Strategy, New York, 1980
[29] Sharin Master, Modern Competitive Analysis, Oxford University Press, 1994
[30] Farell, M. J., 1957, The measurement of productive efficiency, Journal of Royal Statical Society, Series A, General, 120, 253-281
[31] Fare, R., S. Grosskopf and C. A. K nox Lovell, 1985, The measurement of efficiency of production, Boston
[32] Sathye, M., "X-Efficiency in Australian Banking: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Banking and Finance,2001,25,613-630
[33] Avkiran, N. K., "The Evidence of Efficiency Gains: The Role of Mergers and the Benefits to the Public," Journal of Banking and Finance, 1999,23,991-1013
[34] Resti, A., "Banking System: What can be learned from the Joint Application of Parametric and Non-parametric Techniques," Journal of Banking and Finance, 1997,21,221-250
[35] Miller, S. M., A. Noulas, "Short-run Cost Infficiency of Commercial Banks: A Flexible Stochastic Frontier Approach," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 1994,20,495-509
[36] Piyu, "Operational efficiency in banking: in an international comparison," Journal of banking and financial, 1996(20): 655-672
[37] Zahid labal, Kizhanathan, "The output efficiency of minority-owned banks in the United States," International Review of Economics and Finance, 1999(8): 104-114
[38] 孙强.基于DEA的中国银行业经营效率分析,统计与决策,2005(8):87-90
[39] 刘汉涛.对我国商业银行效率的测度:DEA方法的应用,经济科学,2004(6):48-58
[40] 朱南,卓贤,董屹.关于我国国有商业银行效率的实证分析与改革策略,管理世界,
[41] Tim Coelli, D. S. Prasada Rao and George E. Battese, An introduction to efficiency and productivity analysis, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1998, 199-202
[42] Nunamaker, Using data envelopment analysis to measure the efficiency of non-profit organizations: A critical evaluation, Managerial and Decision Economics, 1985,6 (1): 50-68
[43] Tim Coelli, 1996, A Guide to DEAP Version 2.1: A Data Envelopment Analysis (Computer) Program, CEPA Working Paper 96/08
[44] Fare, Roll, Shawna Grosskopf. Average Products and Malmquist Productivity Indexes [M]. mimeo, 1994
[45] Fare, Rolf, Shawna Grosskopf, Mary Norris, Zhongyang Zhang. Productivity Growth, Technical Progress, and Efficiency Changes in Industrialized Countries[J]. American Economic Review, 1994,84
[46] Gary D. Ferrier. An Empirical Investigation of Productivity Change in U. S. Banking, 1977-1988[M]. The James H. Penick Financial Research Series, 1994
[47] 中国金融年鉴,北京:中国金融年鉴编辑部,2000—2005