突发事件应急管理绩效评估研究
|
摘要
突发事件应急管理是21世纪管理学领域最新的一个研究热点。应急管理是指在应对突发事件过程中,为了降低突发事件的危害,达到优化决策的目的,基于对突发事件的原因、过程和后果的分析,有效集成社会各方面的相关资源,对突发事件进行有效预警、控制和处理的过程。本研究包括7个部分,采用文献分析、访谈、问卷调查、模糊综合评价、熵权法等研究方法,实证研究了突发事件应急管理绩效评估问题。
1.通过国内外大量文献研究,分析了突发事件应急管理绩效评估的理论和方法的进展、研究成果、存在的问题和发展方向,在此基础上确定了本文的研究内容和研究框架。
2.系统分析了突发事件与应急管理的机理、机制、体制、法制和应急预案,探讨了应急管理运行机制,为构建突发事件应急管理绩效评估指标体系提供了理论依据。
3.根据突发事件应急管理的基本理论,从突发事件发生的演化路径和应急管理的组织运行机制的视角出发,建立了突发事件应急管理绩效评估指标体系框架。
4.按照层次分析法、模糊综合评价法、专家评判法、嫡权法的基本原理,对每个指标赋值给出具体评分标准,运用增加、删减、合并等方法优化绩效评估指标体系,建构了突发事件应急管理绩效评估的多层结构模型。
5.根据香港特区近5年来突发事件应急管理的表现,化成数据,运用第5章建立的突发事件应急管理绩效评估指标体系进行实证分析,检验了评估模型的科学性和有效性,并根据数据结果提出了改进建议。
In the 21st century, Emergency Management is one of the hot and frontier research areas in managerial studies. Emergency Management is aimed at confining and reducing the damages caused by crises, by analyzing the causes, processes and consequences of crises, so as to optimize the decision making process. Emergency Management is also, by drawing and mobilizing all available resources in society, to devise an effective and efficient warning, curbing and controlling mechanism. Through literature reviews, interviews and opinion surveys (by questionnaire), and building on the theories of fussy comprehensive evaluation, entropy, etc, this dissertation, which consists of 7 parts, looks into the performance evaluation of emergency management.
1. Having thoroughly studied the existing literatures, both of PRC and foreign scholars, the theoretical developments as well as practical experiences on the performance evaluation of emergency management are summed up and consolidated. Building upon these, the framework and the contents of this research are established.
2. By systemic and in-depth analysis on the mechanisms, relevant legislations, management systems, readiness and preparedness for emergency, a solid theoretical ground for the construction of a performance evaluation model for emergency management is founded.
3. According to the basic principles of emergency management, and by consolidating the perspectives of both temporal and spatial developments of emergency and emergency management, the framework of a performance evaluation model for emergency management is constructed.
4. According to the theories of analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, expertise evaluation and entropy, weights are calculated, modified and assigned to different indicators of the performance evaluation model. The indicators of the model are adjusted and streamlined by addition, deletion and combination in accord with some the specific rules. As such, a performance evaluation model for emergency management is completed.
5. Based upon the last five-year performance (converted to data) on emergency management of Hong Kong Government, a test is conducted on the performance evaluation model for emergency management as mentioned in Chapters of this thesis. The test shows that the performance evaluation model is scientific and its validity is acceptable. On further analysis of the test results, suggestions and recommendations are duly made.
1.通过国内外大量文献研究,分析了突发事件应急管理绩效评估的理论和方法的进展、研究成果、存在的问题和发展方向,在此基础上确定了本文的研究内容和研究框架。
2.系统分析了突发事件与应急管理的机理、机制、体制、法制和应急预案,探讨了应急管理运行机制,为构建突发事件应急管理绩效评估指标体系提供了理论依据。
3.根据突发事件应急管理的基本理论,从突发事件发生的演化路径和应急管理的组织运行机制的视角出发,建立了突发事件应急管理绩效评估指标体系框架。
4.按照层次分析法、模糊综合评价法、专家评判法、嫡权法的基本原理,对每个指标赋值给出具体评分标准,运用增加、删减、合并等方法优化绩效评估指标体系,建构了突发事件应急管理绩效评估的多层结构模型。
5.根据香港特区近5年来突发事件应急管理的表现,化成数据,运用第5章建立的突发事件应急管理绩效评估指标体系进行实证分析,检验了评估模型的科学性和有效性,并根据数据结果提出了改进建议。
In the 21st century, Emergency Management is one of the hot and frontier research areas in managerial studies. Emergency Management is aimed at confining and reducing the damages caused by crises, by analyzing the causes, processes and consequences of crises, so as to optimize the decision making process. Emergency Management is also, by drawing and mobilizing all available resources in society, to devise an effective and efficient warning, curbing and controlling mechanism. Through literature reviews, interviews and opinion surveys (by questionnaire), and building on the theories of fussy comprehensive evaluation, entropy, etc, this dissertation, which consists of 7 parts, looks into the performance evaluation of emergency management.
1. Having thoroughly studied the existing literatures, both of PRC and foreign scholars, the theoretical developments as well as practical experiences on the performance evaluation of emergency management are summed up and consolidated. Building upon these, the framework and the contents of this research are established.
2. By systemic and in-depth analysis on the mechanisms, relevant legislations, management systems, readiness and preparedness for emergency, a solid theoretical ground for the construction of a performance evaluation model for emergency management is founded.
3. According to the basic principles of emergency management, and by consolidating the perspectives of both temporal and spatial developments of emergency and emergency management, the framework of a performance evaluation model for emergency management is constructed.
4. According to the theories of analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, expertise evaluation and entropy, weights are calculated, modified and assigned to different indicators of the performance evaluation model. The indicators of the model are adjusted and streamlined by addition, deletion and combination in accord with some the specific rules. As such, a performance evaluation model for emergency management is completed.
5. Based upon the last five-year performance (converted to data) on emergency management of Hong Kong Government, a test is conducted on the performance evaluation model for emergency management as mentioned in Chapters of this thesis. The test shows that the performance evaluation model is scientific and its validity is acceptable. On further analysis of the test results, suggestions and recommendations are duly made.
引文
1 陈安,陈宁,倪慧荟.现代应急管理理论与方法[M].北京：科学出版社,2009.
2陈安,李铭禄(2006).干扰管理、危机管理和应急管理概念辨析[J].1(1),9.
3 陈安,上官艳秋,倪慧荟.现代应急管理饰制设计研究[J].中国行政管理,2008(8).
4陈国华,张新梅,金强.区域应急管理事务：预案、演练及绩效[M].北京：科学出版社,2009.
5邓云峰,郑双忠.城市突发公共事件应急能力评估—以南方某市为例[J].中国安全生产科学术,2006,2(2)：9-13.
6杜栋,庞庆华,吴炎.现代综合评价方法与案例精选(第2版)[J].北京：清华大学出版社,2008.34-40.
7范柏乃.政府绩效评估与管理[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2007.
8付亚和,许玉林.绩效管理[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2003
9弗里德里希·克拉默(柯志阳,吴彤译).混沌与秩序：生物系统的复杂结构[M].上海：上海科技教育出版社,2000.
10郭济.政府应急管理实务[M].北京：中共中央党校出版社,2004.
11黄淳,李彬.不确定性经济学研究综述[J].经济学动态,2004(1).
12计雷,池宏,陈安,陈建明,赵红,王亚慧,李建平(2006).突发事件应急管理[M].北京：高等教育出版社
13李东科.我国政府危机管理绩效评估研究[D].贵州大学硕士学位论文,2008.
14李明强,张凯,岳晓.突发事件的复杂科学理论研究[J].管理科学,2006(2)：4-5.
15劳伦斯·巴顿(符彩霞译).组织危机管理[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2002.
16刘传铭,王玲.政府应急管理组织绩效评测模型研究[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报(社会科学版),2006,8(1).
17刘佳,陈建明,陈安.应急管理中的动态模糊分类分级算法研究[J].管理评论,2007(1)：38-44.
18刘艳,康仲远,赵汗章.我国城市减灾管理综合评价指标体系的研究[J].自然灾害学报,1999,8(2)：61-66.
19刘曾荣,李挺.复杂系统理论剖析[J].自然杂志,2004,26(3),149-151.
20罗伯特·希斯(王成,宋炳辉,金瑛译).危机管理[M].北京：中信出版社,2001：272-282.
21马添翼.事故应急管理及其成熟度评价[D].天津大学硕士学位论文,2007
22米歇尔·沃尔德罗普(陈玲译).混沌：诞生于秩序与混沌边缘的科学[M].北京：生活.读书.新知三联书店,1997.
23欧阳莹之.复杂系统理论基础[M].上海：上海科技教育出版社,2000,297-310.
24祁明亮,池宏,赵红,孙颖(2006).突发公共事件应急管理研究现状与展望[J].管理评论,18(4)：35-45.
25秦启文,陆林,周永康,陈红,蔡岳建.突发事件的预防与应对[M].北京：新华出版社,2008.
26时勘.危机突发事件的社会心理预警研究[J].北京社会科学,2003(4)：25-31.
27施邦筑.熊光华.大规模灾害救灾标准操作系统之建立.消防署委托之研究报告。2002.
28谭川.我国政府危机管理绩效的评测研究[D].河海大学硕士论文,2007.
29唐钧,刘英凤,李丹婷.危机防范的国际经验与机制创新[J].中央社会主义学院学报,2008(5).
30田依林,杨青.突发事件应急能力评价指标体系建模研究[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2008,16(2)：200-208.
31万军,汪军.应急管理中的政府责任和权力综述[J].兰州学刊,2004(4)：217-220.
32王德迅.国外公共危机管理机制纵横谈[J].求是杂志,2005(20)：60-61.
33王玲.突发公共卫生事件危机管理体系构建与评测研究[D].天津大学博士论文,2004.
34王汝发.危机防范策略的量化评价[J].中国行政管理,2005(3)：105-107.
35王锐兰.政府应急管理的绩效评价指标体系研究[J].安徽大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2009,33(1).
36王绍玉.城市灾害应急管理能力建设[J].城市与减灾,2003(3)：78-89.
37王晓霞.试析政府公共危机管理绩效评估体系[J].管理世界,2009(1).
37王艳.论政府危机管理中的行政问责制[J].中共长春市委党校学报,2006(4).
38魏玖长.危机事件社会影响的分析与评估研究[D].中国科学技术大学博士学位论文, 2006.
39吴建勋.政府危机管理绩效评估：综述及拓展[J].改革,2007(2).
40吴新燕,顾建华.国内外城市灾害应急能力评价的研究进展[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(6)：109-114.
41吴宗之,刘茂.重大事故应急预案分级、分类体系及其基本内容[J].中国安全科学学报,2003,13(1).
42薛澜,钟开斌.突发公共事件分类、分级与分期：应急体制的管理基础[J].中国行政管理,2005(2)：102-107.
43薛澜,钟开斌.突发公共事件分类、分级与分期：应急体制的管理基础[J].中国行政管理,2005(2)：102-107.
44薛澜,张强,钟开斌.危机管理：转型期中国面临的挑战[M].中国行政管理,2005(2)：102-107.
45杨洪涛,余雅婷.基于BSC和AHP的中国政府危机管理绩效评测研究[J].科技管理研究,2009(5).
46杨静,陈建明,赵红.应急管理中的突发事件分类分级研究[J].管理评论,2005,17(4)：37-41
47杨青,田依林,宋英华.基于过程管理的城市灾害应急管理综合能力评价体系研究[J].中国行政管理,2007,(3)：103-106.
48姚杰,计雷,池宏.突发事件应急管理中的动态博弈分析[J].管理评论,2005(3)：46-50.
49姚国章.日本灾害管理体系：研究与借鉴[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2009.
50伊恩·I·米特罗夫.危机防范与对策[M].北京：电子工业出版社,2004.
5l约翰·H·霍兰(周晓牧,韩晖译).隐秩序：适应性造就复杂性[M].上海：上海科技教育出版社,2000.
52张成福.公共危机管理：全面整合的模式与中国的战略选择[J].中国行政管理,2003(7)：9.
53张风华.城市防震减灾能力评估研究[D].博士学位论文,中国地震局工程力学研究所,2002.
54张风华,谢礼立.城市防震减灾能力评估研究[J].自然灾害学报,2001,10(4)：57-64.
55张小明.公共部门危机管理[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2006.
56张小明.公共危机管理绩效评估的机制与指标体系分析[J].党政干部论坛,2006(12).
57张学华.运用嫡技术计算权系数[J].科学学与科学技术管理,1992,13(9).
58赵成根.国外大城市危机管理模式研究[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2006.
59赵海燕,姚晖.基于平衡记分卡的公共卫生危机管理绩效评估方案设计[J].学术交流,2007(12).
60赵红,汪亮.从美国联邦应急计划看美国国家应急管理运行机制[J].项目管理技术,2004(1)：46-49.
61中国行政管理学会课题组(2005).政府应急管理机制研究[J].中国行政管理,1：18-21
62周智红,王二平.人事心理学中的效标研究[J].心理学动态,1999,3：53-57.
63周金玲.应对公共危机的无效成本分析—以SARS事件为例[J].山东大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2004(5).
64周妍.陕西省突发事件应急管理的运行机理及其绩效评价研究[D].西安理工大学硕士学位论文,2008.
1 American Compensation Associatiom(1996). The role of competencies in an integrated HR Strategy. American Compensation Association Joumal,5(2): 6-21.
2 Amit, R.,& Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1993). Strategic assets and organizational rent. Strategic Management Journal,14:33-46.
3 Anthony,W.P. (1996). Strategic Human Resource Management(Second Edition). The Dryden Press, Florida.
4 Sherman, A., Bohlander, G.,& Snell.S. (1998). Managing Human resources (11th ed). South-Western.
5 Augustine, N. R. (1995). Managing the crisis you tried to prevent. Harvard Business Review,73(6),147-158.
6 Bakker, F.,& Ni jhof, A. Responsible chain management:a capability assessment framework. Business Strategy and the Environment,2002,11(1):63-75.
7 Bernardin, H. J.,& Beaty, R. W. (1984). The role of job analysis in appraisal system development. Performance appraisal:Assessing human behavior at work. Boston, Kent publishing company.
8 Bernardin, H. J., Kane, J. S., Ross, S., Spina,J.D.,& Johnson, D. L. (1995). Performance appraisal design, development, and implementation. In G. R. Ferris,S. D. Rosen, D. T. Barnum (Eds.), Handbook of human resource management (pp.462-493). Cambridge, MA:Blackwell Publishers.
9 Blanning, R. W. (1992). Knowledge, Metaknowledge and Explanation in Intelligent Organizational Models. In Artificial Intelligence in Organization and Management Theory. M. Masuch ed. Netherlands:North-Holland, Amsterdam.65-86.
10 Bryant, K. J. (1997). A study of the relationship between competencies or tasks and their frequency of performance as required by emergency administration and management. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, The Pennsylvania State University.
11 Burton, R. M.,& Obel,B. (1984). Designing Efficient organizations:Modeling Experimentation. North-Holland:Amsterdam.
12 Campbell, J. P. (1990). Modeling the performance prediction problem in industrial and organizational psychology. In M. D. Dunnette,& L. M. Hough (Eds.), Handbook of industrial and organizational psychology (Vol.1, pp. 687-732). Palo Alto, CA:Consulting Psychologists Press.
13 Carlyle, J. J.& Ellison,T.F. (1987).Developing performance standards. The performance management sourcebook. Human resource development press,Inc.
14 Cascio, W. F. (1980). Applied Psychology in Personnel Management (Second Edition). Virginia:Reston,116.
15 Chen, S. J.& Hwang, C. L. (1992). Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making, Methods and Applications, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
16 Clausen, J., Larsen, J., Larsen, A.,& Hansen, J. (2001). Disruption management: Operations research between planning and execution. OR/MS,28(5):40-43.
17 Collis, D. J. (1994). How valuable are organizational capabilities? Strategic Management Journal,15:143-152.
18 Coombs, W. T. (1999). Ongoing Crisis Communication-Planning, Managing, and Responding. New York:Sage Publications, Inc.
19 Corsini,R.J. (1987). Concise Encyclopedia of Psychology. John & Wiley and Sons, Inc.
20 Drabczyk, A. L. (2005). Citizen and emergency responder shared values: Enabling mutual disaster management performance. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Walden University.
21 Dunnette, M. D. (1983). Handbook of Industrial and Organizational Psychology. John Wiley & Sons.
22 Fink, S. (1986). Crisis Management:Planning for the Inevitable. New York: American Management Association,15-18.
23 Gang, Y.,& Xiangtong, Q. (2004). Disruption Management:Framework, Models and Applications. Singapore:World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
24 Gensheimer, K. F. (2004). Challenges and opportunities in pandemic influenza planning:lessons learned from recent infectious disease preparedness and response efforts. International Congress Series,1263:809-812.
25 George, J. M.& Jones, G. R. (1999). Understanding and managing organizational behavior(Second Edition). Addison-Wisley publishing company, Inc.
26 Guth, D. W. (1990). Crisis and the Practitioner:Organizational Crisis Experience as it Relates to the Placement of the Public Relations Function, Masters thesis. University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill.
27 Hanseong, S.,& Poonghyun, S. A. (1999). Software Safety Evaluation:Method Based on Fuzzy Colored Petri Nets. In:Proceedings of International Conference on Fuzzy System,2:830-834.
28 Huber, G. P. (1990). A theory of the Effects of Advanced Information Technologies on Organizational Design, Intelligence, and Decision Making. The Academy of Management Review,15:47-51.
29 Jones, B. J. (2003). Assessment of emergency management performance and capability. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Cranfield University.
30 Kane,J.S.& Lawler, E. E. (1980). Performance distribution assessment:A new framework for conceiving and appraising job performance. Unpublished manuscript,1980.
31 Kaplan, R.,& Norton, D. (1992). The balanced score card-measures that drive performance. Harvard Business Review,70(1):71-79.
32 Khoshafian, S. (1992). Intelligent Offices. New York:John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
33 Krackhardt, D.,& Stern, R. N. (1988). Informal Networks and Organizational Crises:An Experimental Simulation. Social Psychology Quarterly,51(2): 123-140.
34 Landy, F. J.,& Farr, J. L. (1987). Judgmental measures of work performance [M]. Human resource development press,Inc.
35 Siegel, L.& Lane, I.M. (1987). Personnel and organizational psychology (Second edition). Illinois, Richard D.Irwin,Inc.
36 Linstone, H. A.& Mitroff,I.I. (1994). The Challenge of the 21st Century: Managing Technology and Ourselves in a Shrinking World. New York:State University of New York Press.
37 Lyons, M. (2000). Evaluation of a task performance resource constraint model to assess the impact of offshore emergency management on risk reduction. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Cranfield University.
38 Malone, T. W. (1987). Intelligent Information Sharing Systems. Comm. ACM,30: 390-402
39 Marsden J. R. (1992). Intelligent Information and Organization Structures: An Integrated Design Approach. J. Organizational Computing,2,225-242
40 McIntyre, S. C. (1988). Object-Oriented Systems Analysis and Design: Methodology and Application. J. Management Information systems,5:25-35.
41 Mitroff,I.I. (1994). Crisis Managment and Environmentalism:A Natural Conflict. California Management Review,36(2):101-113.
42 Morel, B.,& Ramanujam, R. (1999). Through the looking glass of complexity: The dynamics of organizations as adaptive and evolving systems. Organ Side,10:278-293.
43 Paton, D.,& Jackson, D. (2002). Developing disaster management capability: an assessment centre approach. Disaster Prevention and Management, 11(2),115-122.
44 Paulk, M. C., Weber, C., Curtis, B.,& Chrissis,M. B. (1995). The Capability Maturity Model:Guidelines for Improving the Software Process. Massachusetts, Addison- Wesley.
45 Robert, H. (1998). Looking for answers:suggestions for improving how we evaluate crisis management. Safty Science,30(1-2):151-163.
46 Robert Heath(1998). Crisis Management for Managers and Executives. Prentice Hall.
47 Robert T.Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act.As amended by Public Law.106-390. October 30,2000.
48 Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, as Amended, and Related Authorities, FEMA 592, June 2007.
49 Rosenthal, U. (1980). Coping with crises:the Management of Disaster, Riots and Terrorism. Springfield, Illinois:Charles C. Tomas Publisber Ltd,10.
50 Saaty, T. L. (1990). The Analytic Hierarchy Process(2nd edition). New York: RWS Publications.
51 Schneier, C. E., Beatly, R. W.,& Baired, C. S. (1987). The performance management sourcebook. Human resource development press, Inc.
52 Snell.S. A.,& Wexley, K.N. (1987). Performance diagnosis:identifying the causes of poor peformance. The performance management sourcebook. Human resource development press, Inc.
53 Snelling, C. (1997). The value and effectiveness of emergency exercises. Unpublished Dissertation of the degree of MBA. University of Leicester.
54 Strutt, J. E., Jones, B. J., Larken, E. S. J.,& Shannon, H. (2001). Performance Indicators for the assessment of Emergency Management in Major Accident Hazards. Bootle, HSE Books
55 Teece, D. J., Pisano,G.,& Shuen, A. (1997). Dynamic capabilities and strategic management. Strategic Management Joumal,18:509-533.
56 Tortorello,N.J.,& Wilhelm, E. (1993). Eighth Annual Salary Survey. Public Relations Journal,19.
57 Uhr, C. (2009). Multi-organizational Emergency Response Management:A Framework for Further Development. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Lund University.
58 United Nations Development Programme(UNDP) (1998). Capacity Assessment and Development:In a Systems and Strategic Management Context. Technical Advisory Paper No.3 developed by Management Development and Governance Division of Bureau for Development Policy.
2陈安,李铭禄(2006).干扰管理、危机管理和应急管理概念辨析[J].1(1),9.
3 陈安,上官艳秋,倪慧荟.现代应急管理饰制设计研究[J].中国行政管理,2008(8).
4陈国华,张新梅,金强.区域应急管理事务：预案、演练及绩效[M].北京：科学出版社,2009.
5邓云峰,郑双忠.城市突发公共事件应急能力评估—以南方某市为例[J].中国安全生产科学术,2006,2(2)：9-13.
6杜栋,庞庆华,吴炎.现代综合评价方法与案例精选(第2版)[J].北京：清华大学出版社,2008.34-40.
7范柏乃.政府绩效评估与管理[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2007.
8付亚和,许玉林.绩效管理[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2003
9弗里德里希·克拉默(柯志阳,吴彤译).混沌与秩序：生物系统的复杂结构[M].上海：上海科技教育出版社,2000.
10郭济.政府应急管理实务[M].北京：中共中央党校出版社,2004.
11黄淳,李彬.不确定性经济学研究综述[J].经济学动态,2004(1).
12计雷,池宏,陈安,陈建明,赵红,王亚慧,李建平(2006).突发事件应急管理[M].北京：高等教育出版社
13李东科.我国政府危机管理绩效评估研究[D].贵州大学硕士学位论文,2008.
14李明强,张凯,岳晓.突发事件的复杂科学理论研究[J].管理科学,2006(2)：4-5.
15劳伦斯·巴顿(符彩霞译).组织危机管理[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2002.
16刘传铭,王玲.政府应急管理组织绩效评测模型研究[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报(社会科学版),2006,8(1).
17刘佳,陈建明,陈安.应急管理中的动态模糊分类分级算法研究[J].管理评论,2007(1)：38-44.
18刘艳,康仲远,赵汗章.我国城市减灾管理综合评价指标体系的研究[J].自然灾害学报,1999,8(2)：61-66.
19刘曾荣,李挺.复杂系统理论剖析[J].自然杂志,2004,26(3),149-151.
20罗伯特·希斯(王成,宋炳辉,金瑛译).危机管理[M].北京：中信出版社,2001：272-282.
21马添翼.事故应急管理及其成熟度评价[D].天津大学硕士学位论文,2007
22米歇尔·沃尔德罗普(陈玲译).混沌：诞生于秩序与混沌边缘的科学[M].北京：生活.读书.新知三联书店,1997.
23欧阳莹之.复杂系统理论基础[M].上海：上海科技教育出版社,2000,297-310.
24祁明亮,池宏,赵红,孙颖(2006).突发公共事件应急管理研究现状与展望[J].管理评论,18(4)：35-45.
25秦启文,陆林,周永康,陈红,蔡岳建.突发事件的预防与应对[M].北京：新华出版社,2008.
26时勘.危机突发事件的社会心理预警研究[J].北京社会科学,2003(4)：25-31.
27施邦筑.熊光华.大规模灾害救灾标准操作系统之建立.消防署委托之研究报告。2002.
28谭川.我国政府危机管理绩效的评测研究[D].河海大学硕士论文,2007.
29唐钧,刘英凤,李丹婷.危机防范的国际经验与机制创新[J].中央社会主义学院学报,2008(5).
30田依林,杨青.突发事件应急能力评价指标体系建模研究[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2008,16(2)：200-208.
31万军,汪军.应急管理中的政府责任和权力综述[J].兰州学刊,2004(4)：217-220.
32王德迅.国外公共危机管理机制纵横谈[J].求是杂志,2005(20)：60-61.
33王玲.突发公共卫生事件危机管理体系构建与评测研究[D].天津大学博士论文,2004.
34王汝发.危机防范策略的量化评价[J].中国行政管理,2005(3)：105-107.
35王锐兰.政府应急管理的绩效评价指标体系研究[J].安徽大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2009,33(1).
36王绍玉.城市灾害应急管理能力建设[J].城市与减灾,2003(3)：78-89.
37王晓霞.试析政府公共危机管理绩效评估体系[J].管理世界,2009(1).
37王艳.论政府危机管理中的行政问责制[J].中共长春市委党校学报,2006(4).
38魏玖长.危机事件社会影响的分析与评估研究[D].中国科学技术大学博士学位论文, 2006.
39吴建勋.政府危机管理绩效评估：综述及拓展[J].改革,2007(2).
40吴新燕,顾建华.国内外城市灾害应急能力评价的研究进展[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(6)：109-114.
41吴宗之,刘茂.重大事故应急预案分级、分类体系及其基本内容[J].中国安全科学学报,2003,13(1).
42薛澜,钟开斌.突发公共事件分类、分级与分期：应急体制的管理基础[J].中国行政管理,2005(2)：102-107.
43薛澜,钟开斌.突发公共事件分类、分级与分期：应急体制的管理基础[J].中国行政管理,2005(2)：102-107.
44薛澜,张强,钟开斌.危机管理：转型期中国面临的挑战[M].中国行政管理,2005(2)：102-107.
45杨洪涛,余雅婷.基于BSC和AHP的中国政府危机管理绩效评测研究[J].科技管理研究,2009(5).
46杨静,陈建明,赵红.应急管理中的突发事件分类分级研究[J].管理评论,2005,17(4)：37-41
47杨青,田依林,宋英华.基于过程管理的城市灾害应急管理综合能力评价体系研究[J].中国行政管理,2007,(3)：103-106.
48姚杰,计雷,池宏.突发事件应急管理中的动态博弈分析[J].管理评论,2005(3)：46-50.
49姚国章.日本灾害管理体系：研究与借鉴[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2009.
50伊恩·I·米特罗夫.危机防范与对策[M].北京：电子工业出版社,2004.
5l约翰·H·霍兰(周晓牧,韩晖译).隐秩序：适应性造就复杂性[M].上海：上海科技教育出版社,2000.
52张成福.公共危机管理：全面整合的模式与中国的战略选择[J].中国行政管理,2003(7)：9.
53张风华.城市防震减灾能力评估研究[D].博士学位论文,中国地震局工程力学研究所,2002.
54张风华,谢礼立.城市防震减灾能力评估研究[J].自然灾害学报,2001,10(4)：57-64.
55张小明.公共部门危机管理[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2006.
56张小明.公共危机管理绩效评估的机制与指标体系分析[J].党政干部论坛,2006(12).
57张学华.运用嫡技术计算权系数[J].科学学与科学技术管理,1992,13(9).
58赵成根.国外大城市危机管理模式研究[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2006.
59赵海燕,姚晖.基于平衡记分卡的公共卫生危机管理绩效评估方案设计[J].学术交流,2007(12).
60赵红,汪亮.从美国联邦应急计划看美国国家应急管理运行机制[J].项目管理技术,2004(1)：46-49.
61中国行政管理学会课题组(2005).政府应急管理机制研究[J].中国行政管理,1：18-21
62周智红,王二平.人事心理学中的效标研究[J].心理学动态,1999,3：53-57.
63周金玲.应对公共危机的无效成本分析—以SARS事件为例[J].山东大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2004(5).
64周妍.陕西省突发事件应急管理的运行机理及其绩效评价研究[D].西安理工大学硕士学位论文,2008.
1 American Compensation Associatiom(1996). The role of competencies in an integrated HR Strategy. American Compensation Association Joumal,5(2): 6-21.
2 Amit, R.,& Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1993). Strategic assets and organizational rent. Strategic Management Journal,14:33-46.
3 Anthony,W.P. (1996). Strategic Human Resource Management(Second Edition). The Dryden Press, Florida.
4 Sherman, A., Bohlander, G.,& Snell.S. (1998). Managing Human resources (11th ed). South-Western.
5 Augustine, N. R. (1995). Managing the crisis you tried to prevent. Harvard Business Review,73(6),147-158.
6 Bakker, F.,& Ni jhof, A. Responsible chain management:a capability assessment framework. Business Strategy and the Environment,2002,11(1):63-75.
7 Bernardin, H. J.,& Beaty, R. W. (1984). The role of job analysis in appraisal system development. Performance appraisal:Assessing human behavior at work. Boston, Kent publishing company.
8 Bernardin, H. J., Kane, J. S., Ross, S., Spina,J.D.,& Johnson, D. L. (1995). Performance appraisal design, development, and implementation. In G. R. Ferris,S. D. Rosen, D. T. Barnum (Eds.), Handbook of human resource management (pp.462-493). Cambridge, MA:Blackwell Publishers.
9 Blanning, R. W. (1992). Knowledge, Metaknowledge and Explanation in Intelligent Organizational Models. In Artificial Intelligence in Organization and Management Theory. M. Masuch ed. Netherlands:North-Holland, Amsterdam.65-86.
10 Bryant, K. J. (1997). A study of the relationship between competencies or tasks and their frequency of performance as required by emergency administration and management. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, The Pennsylvania State University.
11 Burton, R. M.,& Obel,B. (1984). Designing Efficient organizations:Modeling Experimentation. North-Holland:Amsterdam.
12 Campbell, J. P. (1990). Modeling the performance prediction problem in industrial and organizational psychology. In M. D. Dunnette,& L. M. Hough (Eds.), Handbook of industrial and organizational psychology (Vol.1, pp. 687-732). Palo Alto, CA:Consulting Psychologists Press.
13 Carlyle, J. J.& Ellison,T.F. (1987).Developing performance standards. The performance management sourcebook. Human resource development press,Inc.
14 Cascio, W. F. (1980). Applied Psychology in Personnel Management (Second Edition). Virginia:Reston,116.
15 Chen, S. J.& Hwang, C. L. (1992). Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making, Methods and Applications, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
16 Clausen, J., Larsen, J., Larsen, A.,& Hansen, J. (2001). Disruption management: Operations research between planning and execution. OR/MS,28(5):40-43.
17 Collis, D. J. (1994). How valuable are organizational capabilities? Strategic Management Journal,15:143-152.
18 Coombs, W. T. (1999). Ongoing Crisis Communication-Planning, Managing, and Responding. New York:Sage Publications, Inc.
19 Corsini,R.J. (1987). Concise Encyclopedia of Psychology. John & Wiley and Sons, Inc.
20 Drabczyk, A. L. (2005). Citizen and emergency responder shared values: Enabling mutual disaster management performance. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Walden University.
21 Dunnette, M. D. (1983). Handbook of Industrial and Organizational Psychology. John Wiley & Sons.
22 Fink, S. (1986). Crisis Management:Planning for the Inevitable. New York: American Management Association,15-18.
23 Gang, Y.,& Xiangtong, Q. (2004). Disruption Management:Framework, Models and Applications. Singapore:World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
24 Gensheimer, K. F. (2004). Challenges and opportunities in pandemic influenza planning:lessons learned from recent infectious disease preparedness and response efforts. International Congress Series,1263:809-812.
25 George, J. M.& Jones, G. R. (1999). Understanding and managing organizational behavior(Second Edition). Addison-Wisley publishing company, Inc.
26 Guth, D. W. (1990). Crisis and the Practitioner:Organizational Crisis Experience as it Relates to the Placement of the Public Relations Function, Masters thesis. University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill.
27 Hanseong, S.,& Poonghyun, S. A. (1999). Software Safety Evaluation:Method Based on Fuzzy Colored Petri Nets. In:Proceedings of International Conference on Fuzzy System,2:830-834.
28 Huber, G. P. (1990). A theory of the Effects of Advanced Information Technologies on Organizational Design, Intelligence, and Decision Making. The Academy of Management Review,15:47-51.
29 Jones, B. J. (2003). Assessment of emergency management performance and capability. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Cranfield University.
30 Kane,J.S.& Lawler, E. E. (1980). Performance distribution assessment:A new framework for conceiving and appraising job performance. Unpublished manuscript,1980.
31 Kaplan, R.,& Norton, D. (1992). The balanced score card-measures that drive performance. Harvard Business Review,70(1):71-79.
32 Khoshafian, S. (1992). Intelligent Offices. New York:John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
33 Krackhardt, D.,& Stern, R. N. (1988). Informal Networks and Organizational Crises:An Experimental Simulation. Social Psychology Quarterly,51(2): 123-140.
34 Landy, F. J.,& Farr, J. L. (1987). Judgmental measures of work performance [M]. Human resource development press,Inc.
35 Siegel, L.& Lane, I.M. (1987). Personnel and organizational psychology (Second edition). Illinois, Richard D.Irwin,Inc.
36 Linstone, H. A.& Mitroff,I.I. (1994). The Challenge of the 21st Century: Managing Technology and Ourselves in a Shrinking World. New York:State University of New York Press.
37 Lyons, M. (2000). Evaluation of a task performance resource constraint model to assess the impact of offshore emergency management on risk reduction. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Cranfield University.
38 Malone, T. W. (1987). Intelligent Information Sharing Systems. Comm. ACM,30: 390-402
39 Marsden J. R. (1992). Intelligent Information and Organization Structures: An Integrated Design Approach. J. Organizational Computing,2,225-242
40 McIntyre, S. C. (1988). Object-Oriented Systems Analysis and Design: Methodology and Application. J. Management Information systems,5:25-35.
41 Mitroff,I.I. (1994). Crisis Managment and Environmentalism:A Natural Conflict. California Management Review,36(2):101-113.
42 Morel, B.,& Ramanujam, R. (1999). Through the looking glass of complexity: The dynamics of organizations as adaptive and evolving systems. Organ Side,10:278-293.
43 Paton, D.,& Jackson, D. (2002). Developing disaster management capability: an assessment centre approach. Disaster Prevention and Management, 11(2),115-122.
44 Paulk, M. C., Weber, C., Curtis, B.,& Chrissis,M. B. (1995). The Capability Maturity Model:Guidelines for Improving the Software Process. Massachusetts, Addison- Wesley.
45 Robert, H. (1998). Looking for answers:suggestions for improving how we evaluate crisis management. Safty Science,30(1-2):151-163.
46 Robert Heath(1998). Crisis Management for Managers and Executives. Prentice Hall.
47 Robert T.Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act.As amended by Public Law.106-390. October 30,2000.
48 Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, as Amended, and Related Authorities, FEMA 592, June 2007.
49 Rosenthal, U. (1980). Coping with crises:the Management of Disaster, Riots and Terrorism. Springfield, Illinois:Charles C. Tomas Publisber Ltd,10.
50 Saaty, T. L. (1990). The Analytic Hierarchy Process(2nd edition). New York: RWS Publications.
51 Schneier, C. E., Beatly, R. W.,& Baired, C. S. (1987). The performance management sourcebook. Human resource development press, Inc.
52 Snell.S. A.,& Wexley, K.N. (1987). Performance diagnosis:identifying the causes of poor peformance. The performance management sourcebook. Human resource development press, Inc.
53 Snelling, C. (1997). The value and effectiveness of emergency exercises. Unpublished Dissertation of the degree of MBA. University of Leicester.
54 Strutt, J. E., Jones, B. J., Larken, E. S. J.,& Shannon, H. (2001). Performance Indicators for the assessment of Emergency Management in Major Accident Hazards. Bootle, HSE Books
55 Teece, D. J., Pisano,G.,& Shuen, A. (1997). Dynamic capabilities and strategic management. Strategic Management Joumal,18:509-533.
56 Tortorello,N.J.,& Wilhelm, E. (1993). Eighth Annual Salary Survey. Public Relations Journal,19.
57 Uhr, C. (2009). Multi-organizational Emergency Response Management:A Framework for Further Development. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Lund University.
58 United Nations Development Programme(UNDP) (1998). Capacity Assessment and Development:In a Systems and Strategic Management Context. Technical Advisory Paper No.3 developed by Management Development and Governance Division of Bureau for Development Policy.