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环境技术创新的决策行为及能力影响机理研究
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摘要
改革开放以来,中国经济建设取得了巨大成就,综合国力不断增强,人们生活水平也逐步提高。同时,中国作为全球制造中心,长期以来过于强调经济增长,以严重污染和破坏环境为代价进行发展,使得中国付出了沉痛的环境代价。为了解决这些环境难题,必须要重视环境保护,而加强环境保护,必须依靠科技创新,不断提高科学技术对环境保护的支撑能力。对此,环境技术创新成为一个根本的动力和解决问题的出发点,有必要对环境技术创新的规律进行深入研究。
     本文主要研究了我国环境技术创新的动力要素、创新行为、创新能力等相关问题,体现出环境技术创新起于企业创新的动力要素、通过企业个体的创新行为(决策与扩散),最后集中体现在各层面(企业、区域与产业)的创新能力上这一研究计划。所得结论不仅对促进我国环境技术创新的发展具有重要意义,而且也对政府改进和实施环境政策工具同样具有重要的指导意义。主要工作与结论如下:
     (1)基于时间阶段的划分与动态规划模型,在将环境技术创新的方式分为自主创新和模仿创新的基础上,通过对企业模仿创新行为的收益率,成功率,冗余资源的收益与自主创新行为之间关系的刻画,研究了自主创新效用最大化。研究得知:企业的冗余资源收益越高时,其自主创新的时间点越晚,增长率也越高,但对增长率的稳定性影响不大;企业模仿创新行为的收益率越高时,其自主创新的时间点越晚,增长率越高,同时,增长率会越早进入一个稳步增长状态;企业模仿创新行为成功率的高低对自主创新及其增长率没有明显影响。此外,基于企业之间知识和信息的交流与学习,构建了环境技术创新在企业之间竞争扩散的模型。研究发现:企业的学习能力对创新扩散的速度具有显著影响。如果一项创新的环境技术要在产业中获得广泛的采用,那么必须要在与其他技术进行竞争的过程中具有较强优势。
     (2)以中国30个省、市、区的大中型工业企业为对象,基于面板数据模型,探讨了环境政策、技术进步,市场结构对环境技术创新能力的影响。结果表明,环境政策工具中,环境法制与环境影响评估对环境技术创新能力不存在显著影响,“三同时”制度存在正向的显著影响,而排污许可证制度、污染限期治理制度存在负向的显著影响,且均存在明显的累积效应。同时,人力资本存量对环境技术创新能力存在显著的正向影响,且其作用较之其他因素最大。而研发投入却存在负向影响,说明劳动依然是我国大中型工业企业的主要贡献要素,发展模式仍属粗放型。此外,技术市场对环境技术创新能力存在正向影响,并存在累积效应,表明对未来国内市场需求的预期会促进更多的创新。而产品出口却不存在显著影响,说明中国大部分环境友好型产品仍然针对的是国内市场,而非全球市场。
     (3)以中国1999-2008年汽车业为对象,基于动态计量模型,从产品创新和过程创新两个方面,通过环境政策、技术进步、市场结构、产业特征四个维度,实证研究了对我国汽车产业环境技术创新能力的影响。结果表明:环境政策工具中的环境影响评估制度和污染限期治理制度,技术进步中的研发投入与人力资本存量,市场结构中的产品销售利润率与环境技术创新能力存在长期的均衡关系,且其长期均衡对产品创新短期波动的影响不大,仅有污染限期治理和研发投入的长期均衡对过程创新短期波动的影响显著。同时,环境影响评估制度、研发投入、人力资本存量、产品销售利润率均为产品创新和过程创新的格兰杰原因,而污染限期治理是产品创新的格兰杰原因,过程创新是污染限期治理的格兰杰原因。
Since China’s reform and opening up, the economy of China has obtainedtremendous achievements, the comprehensive national strength in the world has beencontinually enhanced and the level of people’ living is also gradually improved.However, as a global manufacturing center for China, it excessively emphasizeseconomic growth so that severe environment pollution is caused. It brings painfulenvironmental damage for China. In order to solve these environmental problems, wemust pay more attention to environmental protection, which mainly depends onstrengthening the support from capability of science and technology by innovation. So,environmental technology innovation becomes the fundamental power and the startingpoint for resolving problem, and it is necessary to keep a further and deep onresearching about it.
     It focuses on driving forces, innovative behavior and innovation capability ofenvironmental technology innovation in this doctoral dissertation, and showsenvironmental technology innovation originating from driving forces, getting throughindividual firm’s innovative behavior (including decision-making and competition-diffusion), and then reflecting on innovation capabilities of all respects(includingvarious level of firm, region and industry). The result shows that it is great significancenot only for developing of China's environmental technology innovation capability, butalso for improving and implementing of environmental policy tools. The main resultsof this paper are organized as follows.
     (1) Based on time stage and dynamic programming model, the style of environmentaltechnology innovation is divided into independent innovation and imitation innovation.And how to maximize the independent innovation utility is theoretically analyzed bydepicting the relationship among firms’ yield ratio, success ratio, slack resource incomeof imitation innovation behavior and independent innovation behavior. The result showsthat: first, the higher the income of slack resource, the later the time of independentinnovation and the higher growth ratio, but it is few impact on the stability of growthratio; second, the higher the yield ratio of imitation innovation behavior, the later thetime of independent innovation, the higher growth ratio and the earlier the growth ratioto enter a steady state. Moreover, the successful ratio of firms’ imitation innovationbehavior has no impact on independent innovation and its growth ratio. In addition, a competitive diffusion model is constructed based on the mutual communication andlearning between firms’ perspective. The result shows that firms’ learning capability hasa significant effect on the speed of innovation diffusion, and if one kind ofenvironmental innovation technology intends to be popular, it should be superior toothers in the technology competition.
     (2) The panel data model is employed to empirically analyze the impact ofenvironmental policy, technological progress, and market structures on capability ofenvironmental technology innovation based on the data of medium and large-sizedenterprises (MLE) form30regions of China. The results show that: the environmentallaw and impact assessment have no significant impact on environmental technologyinnovation;‘Three simultaneous’ institution has a significant positive impact, but permitinstitution and pollution eliminating deadline have significant negative impact and evencumulative effects are obvious. Meanwhile, human capital stock is a significant positiveand maximum impact on environmental technology innovation while R&D investmentis negative. It indicates labor remains the major contribution element to China’s MLEand the development model of economy is still dominant. In addition, technologymarket has a positive impact and cumulative effect. It indicates the future demandexpectation of domestic market will stimulate more innovation. The goal of most ofinterior environment-friendly products is the domestic, rather than global market.
     (3) The dynamic econometric model is applied to empirically analyze the impact ofenvironmental policy, technological progress, market structure and industrialcharacteristics on capability of environmental technology innovation from both productand process innovation based on the data of auto industry of China. The result showsthat: the environmental technology innovation has long-term equilibrium relationshipwith the environmental impact assessment and pollution eliminating deadline inenvironmental policy, R&D investment and human capital stock in technologicalprogress, and product sales margins in market structure. But the short-term fluctuationsof process innovation are only affected by pollution eliminating deadline and R&D.Meanwhile, environmental impact assessment, R&D investment, human capital,product sales profit are the Granger causes of product innovation and processinnovation, and pollution eliminating deadline is Granger cause of product innovation,while process innovation is the Granger cause of pollution eliminating deadline.
引文
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