中国商业银行跨国经营的动因及进入模式研究
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摘要
随着银行业在全球跨国活动和对外直接投资中所占据份额的快速增长,金融服务市场已变得越来越趋向全球化。在当今全球银行业结构发生战略调整之际,中国商业银行也纷纷顺应形势,将“国际化经营”作为未来五到十年发展的战略目标。2007年以来,随着中国银行业市场的全面对外开放,外资银行的大量涌入加剧了业内竞争的激烈程度,也使得中国商业银行清醒地认识到必须进一步加快自身跨国经营的步伐,提高银行的国际化程度,从而增强在国际金融市场上的竞争实力。由此可见,目前对于进一步深入探讨和研究中国商业银行跨国经营的问题显得更加具有理论价值和现实指导意义。
     本文以中国商业银行跨国经营的动因及进入模式为研究对象。在整个研究过程中,本文密切结合中国商业银行跨国经营的实践,既分析了其跨国经营特有的驱动因素,又指出了当前以及今后中国商业银行应该选择何种市场进入模式、何种组织形式来具体实施跨国经营。本文的研究注重从理论到实践,从整体到个体的逻辑思维方式,采用了定性分析和定量分析相结合,实证分析和规范分析相结合的研究方法。
     本文通过研究发现,商业银行作为金融服务企业的行业特质,决定了其在进行跨国经营决策时特有的影响因素,也使其在进入海外市场时不能和制造业公司一样采取线性的方式逐步推进,而是倾向于直接选择具有高控制度的进入模式,即新建和跨国并购。
     本文运用邓宁的国际生产折衷理论作为解释中国商业银行跨国经营动因的理论框架,对影响其跨国经营的主要因素进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:中国商业银行的盈利能力、国际化经验、中国对东道国(地区)的非金融类对外直接投资额以及东道国(地区)的工业化程度、收入水平和银行业监管环境都对中国商业银行的跨国经营活动产生显著影响,并由此得出“追随客户”、扩大国外市场份额、多元化经营以及分散金融风险是中国商业银行跨国经营的主要动因。
     目前,中国商业银行的跨国经营尚处在起步阶段,主要是通过新建模式进入东道国市场,如何正确选择其海外机构的组织形式成为一个至关重要的决策。作为跨国银行海外机构最主要的海外分行和子银行形式,由于两者在设立成本、业务范围和监管责任等方面有较大差异,因而决定了两者不同的适用范围。本文运用中国宏观经济层面和东道国的相关数据,对影响中国商业银行海外机构组织形式的因素进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,虽然海外分行形式比较适合目前中国商业银行国际化战略初级阶段的需要,但是由于2008年国际金融危机给全球银行业带来的深远影响,以及未来各国对外资银行监管的“子行化”趋势,中国商业银行海外机构的主要形式必然会由分行向子银行转变。
     从全球跨国银行业的发展历程来看,新建是跨国银行早期对外扩张的主要方式。上个世纪80年代后,面对不断加速的金融全球化趋势,西方发达国家的大型银行掀起了一次次跨国并购的浪潮。跨国并购避免了以新建模式进入可能遇到的种种障碍,为银行进入新的市场提供了有效途径,成为现代银行实现国际化经营的重要方式。因此本文指出,随着中国商业银行跨国经营的不断发展壮大,其市场进入模式应该从以新建为主逐步向新建和跨国并购并举转变。
     本文运用案例比较分析的方法,从并购规模、并购方式、区域跨度等方面将汇丰集团和中国商业银行跨国并购的案例做了对比研究,并从中获得了诸多实施跨国并购战略的有益启示。在此基础上,本文深入分析了2008年全球金融危机带给中国商业银行跨国并购的机遇和挑战,指出有实力的商业银行应认真学习和借鉴国际银行业跨国并购的成功经验,充分利用此次金融危机所带来的有利条件,通过有效的并购及其整合,加速推进其国际化的进程。
     银行国际化是一个循序渐进的过程,在其不同的发展阶段银行所制定的战略和行为特征各不相同。由于目前中国商业银行自身的发展水平参差不齐,故本文认为对于中国商业银行的跨国经营问题不能一概而论。总结前文所述,本文得出以下结论:对于国际化程度较高的大型商业银行应在稳定中求增长,选择温和型国际化路径,通过有效的跨国并购,进一步提升其在国际金融市场中的地位;而对于国际化程度较低的中小型股份制商业银行则应在国内银行业市场稳扎稳打,顺应国际化发展趋势,不断做大做强之后再选择合适的时机和模式向海外拓展。
With the rapid growth of the share which the banking industry occupies in the cross-border activities and foreign direct investment (FDI), the financial service market is becoming more and more globalized. When the structure of global banking industry is now being strategically adjusted, Chinese commercial banks also take "international operations" as their development objectives of the next five to ten years in order to follow the situation. Since 2007, with the fully opening of Chinese banking market, the influx of foreign banks has increased the intensity of competition in the industry, and made Chinese commercial banks clearly understand the need to further accelerate the pace of their international operations and raise their degree of internationalization, thus enhancing their international competitiveness in the financial markets. Hence, it shows even more theoretical and practical significance to make further research on the transnational operations of Chinese commercial banks.
     This discourse is a study on the motives and entry mode of transnational operations of Chinese commercial banks. With a close observation on the transnational operations of Chinese commercial banks, it not only analyzes the reasons why Chinese commercial banks go abroad but also points out what entry mode and organizational form should they chose to implement their transnational operations. This research focuses on the logical way of thinking from theory to practice and from the entirety to the individual. In addition, the research method is a combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, empirical analysis and normative analysis.
     Through the study, this discourse found that the industry characteristics of commercial banks as a financial service business determine the specific impact factors of their transnational operations. The characteristics also make the banks not to adapt the same linear step-by-step mode as the manufacturing firms when entering the overseas market, but tend to directly select the entry modes with a high degree of control, such as Greenfield Investment and Cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions.
     This discourse makes empirical analysis on the main factors that influence the transnational operations of Chinese commercial banks, relying on Dunning's eclectic theory (OLI Model) as a framework to explain the motives of those banks when making such operations. Empirical results show that:the transnational operations of Chinese commercial banks are in all significantly influenced by the profitability and international experience of those banks, the non-financial direct investment abroad, the level of industrialization, and the income and banking regulatory environment of host country (region). So it can draw a conclusion that:the main drivers of transnational operations of Chinese commercial banks are "following the customers", expanding share of foreign market, diversification, and spreading the financial risk.
     At present, the transnational operations of Chinese commercial banks are still in the initial stage. They enter into the host country markets mainly through the Greenfield investment, during which it is extremely important for Chinese banks to select suitable organizational forms of its overseas institutions. Overseas branches and subsidiaries are the two main forms of foreign institution of multinational banks. They command diverse applications on the basis of the difference on the establishment costs, regulatory responsibility and the scope of business. This discourse makes an empirical analysis on the factors that affect the selection of organizational forms with the macro-economic data of the home country and host-countries. As a result, it shows that:1) overseas branches could be a more suitable form for Chinese banks in the primary stage of internationalization process; 2) however, due to the far-reaching impact of the international financial crisis, as well as the "sub-banks" trend of the national regulation to the foreign banks in future, the main form of Chinese banks'overseas institutions will inevitably change from the branches to the subsidiaries form.
     From the development process of cross-border banking, Greenfield Investment was the main mode for multinational banks to expand abroad in their early period. Since 1980's, facing the accelerated financial globalization, the large banks of western developed countries have set off a wave of Cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions again and again. Cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions can avoid the possible obstacles encountered by Greenfield Investment, and provide an effective way to enter a new market, which becomes an important mode for banks to expand abroad at present. So the discourse argues that the entry mode of transnational operations of Chinese commercial banks should be both focused on the Cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions and Greenfield Investment.
     Compared with the Cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions of international banking industry represented by HSBC Group's, there is still a big gap for Chinese commercial banks in the aspects of the scale and pattern of mergers and acquisitions, regional span, etc. Therefore, Chinese commercial banks should make earnest reference to the successful experience of the international banking and make full use of the favorable conditions brought by the financial crisis to accelerate their process of internationalization through effective acquisition and integration.
     Internationalization of the banks is a progressive process, in which there are different development strategies and behavioral characteristics in different stages. With the fact of the different development levels of Chinese commercial banks, the discourse argues that their transnational operations can not be generalized. The large commercial banks with a higher degree of internationalization should select the mild path of internationalization to further enhance its position in international financial markets through effective cross-border mergers and acquisitions; while the small and medium sized joint-stock commercial banks with a lower degree of internationalization should firstly focus on the domestic banking market, make themselves bigger and stronger to meet with the trends of international development, and then choose the right time and entry mode to expand abroad.
引文
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