城市住宅投资地段选择分析
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摘要
在房地产投资领域，地段的选择对投资收益起到了举足轻重的作用，直接决定了项目投资的可行性。城市住宅投资是房地产投资的重要组成部分，因此，城市住宅投资地段选择研究具有重大的实用价值。
本文主要对城市住宅投资地段选择的因素及其相关基础理论进行了深入研究。在城市住宅投资地段选择分析中，首先要全面考虑各方面因素。除了传统的自然、经济、社会、人口等因素外，还需紧跟时代发展，考虑市场、环境、政策、品牌等因素。结合以上因素的发展变化，城市住宅郊区化的发展日趋明显，作者独创性地提出了与体育、文化、旅游等融合的复合地段理念。
其次，阐述了城市住宅地段选择理论基础。因为城市是城市住宅的载体，所以其地段选择必须充分考虑城市的时空发展规律及趋向。本文从经济地理角度出发，在时间维度上，探讨了“城市化—逆城市化—新都市主义”的发展过程；在空间维度上，阐述了商业、工业、住宅等城市职能分区和同心圆、扇形、多核心等城市地域空间结构理论。利用过滤论、互换论等城市住宅地段理论，选择好时机，合理借鉴已有经验，积极稳妥地投资决策。
然后，针对目前城市住宅地段选择方法缺乏较为系统研究的状况，作者在该方面做了一些初探。该方法从定性定量两方面结合对城市住宅投资地段选择做出了科学地分析，希望能降低投资风险，帮助投资者获得最大投资收益。定性方面，建立了城市住宅投资地段选择指标体系，在一级指标系统下，更具实用性地提出了子系统指标及其元素。定量方面，开创性地提出了定量化选择模型。根据城市住宅投资中，地段选择影响因素的特殊性(数据的离散性和投资者的效用)，科学地把2000年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者麦克法登(Maccfaden)
的离散选择模型运用到选址中。同时，提出多元线性回归模型和指数模型以供
参考。因为运用多种计量模型，综合考虑计算结果，才能提高地段选择的合理
性。
最后，综合运用以上理论及方法，以成都市万科城市花园为实例采用优劣
”势分析法进行城市住宅地段选择过程分析。从较宏观的角度考虑全国，进行投
资机会研究；从中观的角度考虑成都，进行预可行性研究；从微观的地段具体
情况考虑万科城市花园项目，进行详细可行性研究。通过理论及实例研究，得
出如何科学地进行城市住宅投资地段选择分析的结论。
In Real Estate fields, location is critical to investment yields, where city residential investment plays an important role. Therefore, the study about city residential location analysis has a great practical significance.
Though the significance of location in Real Estate fields has been well known, the systematic analysis still has not been touched. Firstly, in the analysis of city residential location choosing, the factors about nature, society and economy should be taken into account, involving market, environment, policy, brand etc. with the development of times, the author proposes that city residential location have the trend of suburb and composition of culture, tourism and health.
Secondly, city provides the settings for city residential house, so it is necessary for the analysis to consider city development and structure. From the angle of Eco-geography, this thesis studies the city development trend in time and space. Recently, new urbanism becomes popular, which holds to develop both insides and outsides of city. According to function, city area can be divided into CBD, industrial area, residential area and so on. These areas' arrangement in city space shows some rules such as the fan shape, multi-corns. By the study of residential theories such as Filter theory, Exchange theory, the main causes of residential location changing are known as money and communications. Besides the theory about location, Investor should know how to catch chance and make use of some experiences to reasonably invest in it.
Then, by the theories above the author sets up a system to help investor choose residential location. An index system about city residential location choosing is built up, where the sub-system is practicable including many detailed index in nature, society , economy, market etc. Moreover, numerical models are also set up to better the accuracy of investment. The analysis from characteristics and numeration should lessen the risk of investment.
Finally, based on the theories and methods above, the author takes Vanke Chengdu City Garden-a successful residential investment-as a case study, reaches the conclusion that more attention should be paid to environment and appreciative potential and so on in choosing residential location.
本文主要对城市住宅投资地段选择的因素及其相关基础理论进行了深入研究。在城市住宅投资地段选择分析中，首先要全面考虑各方面因素。除了传统的自然、经济、社会、人口等因素外，还需紧跟时代发展，考虑市场、环境、政策、品牌等因素。结合以上因素的发展变化，城市住宅郊区化的发展日趋明显，作者独创性地提出了与体育、文化、旅游等融合的复合地段理念。
其次，阐述了城市住宅地段选择理论基础。因为城市是城市住宅的载体，所以其地段选择必须充分考虑城市的时空发展规律及趋向。本文从经济地理角度出发，在时间维度上，探讨了“城市化—逆城市化—新都市主义”的发展过程；在空间维度上，阐述了商业、工业、住宅等城市职能分区和同心圆、扇形、多核心等城市地域空间结构理论。利用过滤论、互换论等城市住宅地段理论，选择好时机，合理借鉴已有经验，积极稳妥地投资决策。
然后，针对目前城市住宅地段选择方法缺乏较为系统研究的状况，作者在该方面做了一些初探。该方法从定性定量两方面结合对城市住宅投资地段选择做出了科学地分析，希望能降低投资风险，帮助投资者获得最大投资收益。定性方面，建立了城市住宅投资地段选择指标体系，在一级指标系统下，更具实用性地提出了子系统指标及其元素。定量方面，开创性地提出了定量化选择模型。根据城市住宅投资中，地段选择影响因素的特殊性(数据的离散性和投资者的效用)，科学地把2000年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者麦克法登(Maccfaden)
的离散选择模型运用到选址中。同时，提出多元线性回归模型和指数模型以供
参考。因为运用多种计量模型，综合考虑计算结果，才能提高地段选择的合理
性。
最后，综合运用以上理论及方法，以成都市万科城市花园为实例采用优劣
”势分析法进行城市住宅地段选择过程分析。从较宏观的角度考虑全国，进行投
资机会研究；从中观的角度考虑成都，进行预可行性研究；从微观的地段具体
情况考虑万科城市花园项目，进行详细可行性研究。通过理论及实例研究，得
出如何科学地进行城市住宅投资地段选择分析的结论。
In Real Estate fields, location is critical to investment yields, where city residential investment plays an important role. Therefore, the study about city residential location analysis has a great practical significance.
Though the significance of location in Real Estate fields has been well known, the systematic analysis still has not been touched. Firstly, in the analysis of city residential location choosing, the factors about nature, society and economy should be taken into account, involving market, environment, policy, brand etc. with the development of times, the author proposes that city residential location have the trend of suburb and composition of culture, tourism and health.
Secondly, city provides the settings for city residential house, so it is necessary for the analysis to consider city development and structure. From the angle of Eco-geography, this thesis studies the city development trend in time and space. Recently, new urbanism becomes popular, which holds to develop both insides and outsides of city. According to function, city area can be divided into CBD, industrial area, residential area and so on. These areas' arrangement in city space shows some rules such as the fan shape, multi-corns. By the study of residential theories such as Filter theory, Exchange theory, the main causes of residential location changing are known as money and communications. Besides the theory about location, Investor should know how to catch chance and make use of some experiences to reasonably invest in it.
Then, by the theories above the author sets up a system to help investor choose residential location. An index system about city residential location choosing is built up, where the sub-system is practicable including many detailed index in nature, society , economy, market etc. Moreover, numerical models are also set up to better the accuracy of investment. The analysis from characteristics and numeration should lessen the risk of investment.
Finally, based on the theories and methods above, the author takes Vanke Chengdu City Garden-a successful residential investment-as a case study, reaches the conclusion that more attention should be paid to environment and appreciative potential and so on in choosing residential location.
引文
[1]．屠梅曾，周学锋编著，房地产市场与估价，上海交通大学出版社，1998
[2]．陈小平主编，房地产投资风险管理及经营决策方法，山西经济出版社，1993
[3]．龚维丽，房地产经济学，中国建材工业出版社，1993
[4]．顾孟迪，房地产金融，上海交通大学出版社，1998
[5]．建筑业与房地产企业工商管理培训教材编审委员会，建筑市场与房地产营销，中国建筑工业出版社，1998
[6]．邓荣霖，张用刚，社会主义市场经济与现代企业制度，中国人民大学出版社，1997
[7]．刘洪玉，房地产开发，北京经济学院出版社，1993
[8]．汪波，国际工程市场擎，中国建筑工业出版社，1996
[9] (日)三井海上火灾保险(株)编《高级住宅区管理组合应运指南》，日本东京住宅新报社1995年3月增补版
[10]．刘再兴等，生产布局学原理，中国人民大学出版社，1984
[11]．张金颚，花敬群，房地产投机行为之研究，中外房地产导报，1992
[12]．周起业，西方生产布局学原理，中国人民大学出版社，1987
[13]．陈栋生，经济布局的理论与实践，辽宁大学出版社，1989
[14]．陈才，区域经济地理学原理，中国科学技术出版社，1991
[15]．张万清，区域合作与经济网络，经济科学出版社，1987
[16]．杨树珍，中国经济区划研究，中国展望出版社，1991
[17]．潘蜀健，彭雅雅，房地产投资分析，高等教育出版社，1994
[18]．周诚，土地经济研究，中国大地出版社，1996
[19]．王化成，企业财务学，中国人民大学出版社，1994
[20]．石广义，夏自谦，毛志毅，投资项目管理，中国商业出版社，1995
[21]．邹一峰，邹欣，中外投资项目评价，南京大学出版社，1998
[22]．张元瑞，邱霈恩，中国房地产投资全书，中国统计出版社，1992
[23]．张仲敏，钱从龙主编，投资学，东北财经大学出版社，1993
[24]．张仲敏，任淮秀主编，投资经济学，中国人民大学出版社，1994
[25]．张泽鲁主编，中观投资经济学，中国人民大学出版社，1991
[26]．申立银，俞明轩编著，房地产市场风险，天津大学出版社，1996
[27]．洪璧，房地产经纬，中华工商联合出版社，1997
[28]．贵泳评，聂永有，投资风险，立信会计出版社，1996
[29]．张建国，周丽莺，张春华，投资项目经济评价学，冶金工业出版社，1997
[30] (日)川田秀树，高级住宅区管理组合实务，日本实业出版社，1996
[31]. Jerry S. Rosenbloom. A case study in risk analysis and its amplications, 1983
[32]. Pagliari Joseph. L. The Handbook of Real Estate Portfolio Management. RICHARDD. IRWIN, LNC, 1995
[33] Dominique Achour, George Gau. S.W. Hamilton, Real Estate Investment Analysis And Appraisal, The University of British Columbia, 1992
[34]. Peter Byrne and David Cadman, Risk, Uncertainty and Decis:onmaking in Property Development, E. & F.N. Spon. Ltd.,1984
[35]. Steve Alisharan, Real Estate Management, The University of British Columbia, 1992
[36]. Stephen A. Pyhrr, James R. Cooper, Real Estate Investment Strategy Analysis, Decision, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.,1982
[37]. Alvin L Arnold, Daniel E. Feld, Real Estate Investor's Deskbook Warren, Gorham & Lamont. Inc, 1987
[38]. David A. Aaker and Georges. Day. Marketing Research. 4th Edition, John wiley & Sons, Inc. New York, 1990
[39]. William J. Poorvu. Real Estate-A case Study Approach. Regents/Prentice Hall, New Jersey, 1993
[40]. Mike E. Miles. Real Estate Development-Principles into Process. The Urban Land Institute, Washington D.C. 1991
[41]. L. Y Pouliquen, Risk Analysis in Project Appraisal, The Johns Hopkin University Press, 1970
[2]．陈小平主编，房地产投资风险管理及经营决策方法，山西经济出版社，1993
[3]．龚维丽，房地产经济学，中国建材工业出版社，1993
[4]．顾孟迪，房地产金融，上海交通大学出版社，1998
[5]．建筑业与房地产企业工商管理培训教材编审委员会，建筑市场与房地产营销，中国建筑工业出版社，1998
[6]．邓荣霖，张用刚，社会主义市场经济与现代企业制度，中国人民大学出版社，1997
[7]．刘洪玉，房地产开发，北京经济学院出版社，1993
[8]．汪波，国际工程市场擎，中国建筑工业出版社，1996
[9] (日)三井海上火灾保险(株)编《高级住宅区管理组合应运指南》，日本东京住宅新报社1995年3月增补版
[10]．刘再兴等，生产布局学原理，中国人民大学出版社，1984
[11]．张金颚，花敬群，房地产投机行为之研究，中外房地产导报，1992
[12]．周起业，西方生产布局学原理，中国人民大学出版社，1987
[13]．陈栋生，经济布局的理论与实践，辽宁大学出版社，1989
[14]．陈才，区域经济地理学原理，中国科学技术出版社，1991
[15]．张万清，区域合作与经济网络，经济科学出版社，1987
[16]．杨树珍，中国经济区划研究，中国展望出版社，1991
[17]．潘蜀健，彭雅雅，房地产投资分析，高等教育出版社，1994
[18]．周诚，土地经济研究，中国大地出版社，1996
[19]．王化成，企业财务学，中国人民大学出版社，1994
[20]．石广义，夏自谦，毛志毅，投资项目管理，中国商业出版社，1995
[21]．邹一峰，邹欣，中外投资项目评价，南京大学出版社，1998
[22]．张元瑞，邱霈恩，中国房地产投资全书，中国统计出版社，1992
[23]．张仲敏，钱从龙主编，投资学，东北财经大学出版社，1993
[24]．张仲敏，任淮秀主编，投资经济学，中国人民大学出版社，1994
[25]．张泽鲁主编，中观投资经济学，中国人民大学出版社，1991
[26]．申立银，俞明轩编著，房地产市场风险，天津大学出版社，1996
[27]．洪璧，房地产经纬，中华工商联合出版社，1997
[28]．贵泳评，聂永有，投资风险，立信会计出版社，1996
[29]．张建国，周丽莺，张春华，投资项目经济评价学，冶金工业出版社，1997
[30] (日)川田秀树，高级住宅区管理组合实务，日本实业出版社，1996
[31]. Jerry S. Rosenbloom. A case study in risk analysis and its amplications, 1983
[32]. Pagliari Joseph. L. The Handbook of Real Estate Portfolio Management. RICHARDD. IRWIN, LNC, 1995
[33] Dominique Achour, George Gau. S.W. Hamilton, Real Estate Investment Analysis And Appraisal, The University of British Columbia, 1992
[34]. Peter Byrne and David Cadman, Risk, Uncertainty and Decis:onmaking in Property Development, E. & F.N. Spon. Ltd.,1984
[35]. Steve Alisharan, Real Estate Management, The University of British Columbia, 1992
[36]. Stephen A. Pyhrr, James R. Cooper, Real Estate Investment Strategy Analysis, Decision, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.,1982
[37]. Alvin L Arnold, Daniel E. Feld, Real Estate Investor's Deskbook Warren, Gorham & Lamont. Inc, 1987
[38]. David A. Aaker and Georges. Day. Marketing Research. 4th Edition, John wiley & Sons, Inc. New York, 1990
[39]. William J. Poorvu. Real Estate-A case Study Approach. Regents/Prentice Hall, New Jersey, 1993
[40]. Mike E. Miles. Real Estate Development-Principles into Process. The Urban Land Institute, Washington D.C. 1991
[41]. L. Y Pouliquen, Risk Analysis in Project Appraisal, The Johns Hopkin University Press, 1970