西安市房地产市场供求分析
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摘要
随着中国经济的快速增长,中国房地产业也正经历着前所未有的快速发展。然而在房地产业快速发展的同时,也导致了我国房地产业面临许多问题。其中房价是核心问题,导致房价过高的原因主要是因为房地产市场的三大不平衡:供求不平衡、商品房和保障房之间存在着不平衡、房屋买卖市场和租赁市场之间的不平衡。其中以供求不平衡为主要因素。如果这一问题得不到及时、有效地解决,则会影响到整个房地产业未来的健康发展。从当前房地产市场的形势来看,政府的调控效应虽然有所体现,但房地产市场中的供求不平衡问题并没有得到有效地解决。因此,对房地产市场供求不平衡现象及其产生原因进行分析势在必行。
论文首先阐述了房地产市场供求理论,分析了影响房地产市场供给和需求的因素。通过对西安市房地产市场总体供求状况进行分析,了解到目前西安市房地产市场存在着需求旺盛,供给不足、非住宅商品房为主的高端房地产供给与商品适用房为主的中低端房地产需求之间的错位、区域发展不平衡等问题。同时,通过分析了解到住宅类物业在房地产投资和销售比例中始终占有绝对的优势,因此,将住宅市场作为分析的重点,发现目前西安市住宅市场供求存在诸多问题,并且对这些问题形成的原因进行了详细地分析和阐述。运用灰色GM(1,1)模型对未来几年西安市房地产市场供求状况进行了预测,得知西安市房地产市场供求矛盾将进一步加大。最后,为了缓和目前西安市房地产市场的供求矛盾,引导西安市房地产市场健康、持续、稳定地发展,分别从政府、开发商和消费者三个不同的角度提出了解决建议。
通过对西安市房地产市场供求状况及其发展趋势进行分析和预测,建立合理的供求分析体系,并为政府宏观调控、开发商开发投资以及消费者购房决策提供依据,这对于稳定西安市房地产价格,提高房地产市场效率及社会整体福利,保护消费者利益,保障房地产市场及整个社会的健康稳定发展具有十分重要的意义。
With the rapid growth of China's economic, China's real estate industry is also experiencing an unprecedented rapid development. However, in the rapid development of the real estate industry, it has resulted many problems in China's real estate industry. The housing prices is the core issue, resulting the high prices for the real estate market is because the three major imbalance: imbalance between supply and demand, the imbalance exists in housing and the protection, and in the sale and the rental market. The primary factor is the imbalance of supply and demand. If it is allowed to develop continue, will be detrimental to the future health development of the entire real estate. Judging from the current market situation, the Government, although the effect of regulation, but the irrational structure of the supply and demand in real estate market has not been resolved effectively. So it is necessary to create the causes of imbalances in the real estate market supply and demand.
First of all, the paper analysis the theory of supply and demand on the real estate market, and the factors of impact supply and demand of the real estate market. Through analysis the overall situation of supply and demand of Xi'an real estate market, understood the present Xi'an real estate market has some questions: the demand to be exuberant, but the supplies insufficient; It is not balanced that the high-end real estate supplies of non-housing commercial housing and low-and-middle real estate demand; the area development not balanced. At the same time, through the analysis we understood the housing class property holds the absolute superiority throughout in the investment in real estates and the sales proportion, so, takes the housing market as the key point, discovered that there are many problems exist in Xi'an housing market supply and demand at present, and analysis and elaboration the reason that produces to these questions. To use the GM (1,1) model to forecast the situation of supply and demand in Xi'an real estate market, from the end of forecast, we know that the contradiction between supply and demand will further intensify in the next few years in Xi'an. At the end of this paper, to relax the contradictory of the supply and demand in Xi'an real estate market at present, guides the real estate market develop healthy, stably and continually, put forward the solution proposal separately from three different angles of the government, the developer and the consumer.
Through analysis and the forecast to supply and demand condition and the future trend of development of the Xi'an real estate market, to establish the reasonable supply and demand system. And to provide the basis for the government macroeconomic regulation and control, the developer investment, and the consumer decision-making for buying homes. It has the vital significance for regarding stabilizes the Xi'an real estate price, raises efficiency and the social overall welfare in the real estate market, protect the consumer's benefit, safeguard real estate market and the entire society's health steady progression.
论文首先阐述了房地产市场供求理论,分析了影响房地产市场供给和需求的因素。通过对西安市房地产市场总体供求状况进行分析,了解到目前西安市房地产市场存在着需求旺盛,供给不足、非住宅商品房为主的高端房地产供给与商品适用房为主的中低端房地产需求之间的错位、区域发展不平衡等问题。同时,通过分析了解到住宅类物业在房地产投资和销售比例中始终占有绝对的优势,因此,将住宅市场作为分析的重点,发现目前西安市住宅市场供求存在诸多问题,并且对这些问题形成的原因进行了详细地分析和阐述。运用灰色GM(1,1)模型对未来几年西安市房地产市场供求状况进行了预测,得知西安市房地产市场供求矛盾将进一步加大。最后,为了缓和目前西安市房地产市场的供求矛盾,引导西安市房地产市场健康、持续、稳定地发展,分别从政府、开发商和消费者三个不同的角度提出了解决建议。
通过对西安市房地产市场供求状况及其发展趋势进行分析和预测,建立合理的供求分析体系,并为政府宏观调控、开发商开发投资以及消费者购房决策提供依据,这对于稳定西安市房地产价格,提高房地产市场效率及社会整体福利,保护消费者利益,保障房地产市场及整个社会的健康稳定发展具有十分重要的意义。
With the rapid growth of China's economic, China's real estate industry is also experiencing an unprecedented rapid development. However, in the rapid development of the real estate industry, it has resulted many problems in China's real estate industry. The housing prices is the core issue, resulting the high prices for the real estate market is because the three major imbalance: imbalance between supply and demand, the imbalance exists in housing and the protection, and in the sale and the rental market. The primary factor is the imbalance of supply and demand. If it is allowed to develop continue, will be detrimental to the future health development of the entire real estate. Judging from the current market situation, the Government, although the effect of regulation, but the irrational structure of the supply and demand in real estate market has not been resolved effectively. So it is necessary to create the causes of imbalances in the real estate market supply and demand.
First of all, the paper analysis the theory of supply and demand on the real estate market, and the factors of impact supply and demand of the real estate market. Through analysis the overall situation of supply and demand of Xi'an real estate market, understood the present Xi'an real estate market has some questions: the demand to be exuberant, but the supplies insufficient; It is not balanced that the high-end real estate supplies of non-housing commercial housing and low-and-middle real estate demand; the area development not balanced. At the same time, through the analysis we understood the housing class property holds the absolute superiority throughout in the investment in real estates and the sales proportion, so, takes the housing market as the key point, discovered that there are many problems exist in Xi'an housing market supply and demand at present, and analysis and elaboration the reason that produces to these questions. To use the GM (1,1) model to forecast the situation of supply and demand in Xi'an real estate market, from the end of forecast, we know that the contradiction between supply and demand will further intensify in the next few years in Xi'an. At the end of this paper, to relax the contradictory of the supply and demand in Xi'an real estate market at present, guides the real estate market develop healthy, stably and continually, put forward the solution proposal separately from three different angles of the government, the developer and the consumer.
Through analysis and the forecast to supply and demand condition and the future trend of development of the Xi'an real estate market, to establish the reasonable supply and demand system. And to provide the basis for the government macroeconomic regulation and control, the developer investment, and the consumer decision-making for buying homes. It has the vital significance for regarding stabilizes the Xi'an real estate price, raises efficiency and the social overall welfare in the real estate market, protect the consumer's benefit, safeguard real estate market and the entire society's health steady progression.
引文
[1]中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究中心,《中国房地产发展报告No.4》,社会科学文献出版社,2007
[2]毕宝德.中国房地产市场研究[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1994
[3]梁运斌.世纪之交的中国房地产-发展与调控[M].北京:经济管理出版社,1996
[4]中国房地产估价师与房地产经纪人学会.房地产估价理论与方法[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2007
[5]张红.房地产经济学讲义[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2004
[6]俞明轩.房地产投资分析[M].北京:首都经济贸易大学出版社,2004
[7]王要武、罗兆烈、孙平.房地产市场[M].北京:中国计划出版社,1999
[8]王薇.房地产市场供求结构研究[D].西安建筑科技大学,2007
[9]杜吉泽、程钧谟.市场分析[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2001
[10]朱永升、王卫华、韩伯棠.影响房地产市场需求因素的灰色关联度分析[J].北京理工大学学报,2002第22卷第6期
[11]张永岳,陈伯庚.新编房地产经济学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1998
[12]冯套柱、孟亚宁.基于灰色理论的房地产市场需求分析[J].西安石油大学学报,2005
[13]王树林、曲世友.微观经济学[M].北京:科学出版社,2004
[14]2007年上半年西安市房地产发展报告
[15]2007年西安地产需求蓝皮书
[16]L.A.Rose.Urban land supply:natural and contrived re-striction[J].Journal of Urban Economics,1989(25)
[17]马欣.土地供给与房地产市场关系研究.建筑经济[J],2007年第4期(总第294期)
[18]刘琳、刘洪玉.地价与房价的经济学分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2003(7)
[19]林根祥、吴晔、吴现立.市场调查与预测[M].武汉:武汉理工大学出版社,2005
[20]屈援.市场预测理论与应用[M].广州:暨南大学出版社,2003
[21]Adrienne Schmitz,Deborah.L.Brett.Real Estate Market Analysis:A Case Study Approach(M).CITIC Publishing House,2002
[22]郑华.房地产市场分析方法[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2003
[23]张跃庆、丁芸.房地产经济学[M].北京:中国建材工业出版社,2004
[24]丁烈云.房地产开发[M].北京:中国建材工业出版社,2004
[25]中国房地产业协会城市发展专业委员会.中国房地产年度发展报告.北京:中华工商联合出版社,2001
[26]孙永红.房地产市场理论与实践[M].北京:新华出版社,1993
[27]杜吉泽、程钧漠.市场分析[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2001
[28]杨晶、张建军.市场分析[M].广州:暨南大学出版社,2004
[29]Y.C.Richard Wong,Alan K.F.Siu & P.W.Liu.Demand for Private Residential Housing,1997
[30]Gareth Jones & Peter M.Ward.Methodology for land housing market analysis,1994
[31]American Real estate society.Appraisal,Market analysis and public policy in real estate,1996
[32]James D.Vernor.Reading in Market Research for Real Estate,Georgia State University,1995
[33]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕等.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2004:125-150
[34]邓聚龙.灰色系统理论教程[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1990
[35]刘思峰、党耀国、方志耕.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2004
[36]倪绍祥.土地类型与土地评价概论[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1999
[37]郭涛、孟周济、马静.基于主成分分析法对房地产供求协调关系的分析[J].科技信息,2007年第14期
[38]徐彩凤、周健.缓解当前房地产供求结构性矛盾的微观金融调节[J].财经科学,2006/8总221期
[39]郭凌峰.有关房地产供求关系的浅显分析[J].科技与经济,2006年第1期
[40]刘军英.浅谈我国房地产市场供求失衡状况[J].价值工程,2006年第11期
[41]西安房地产信息网:http://www.800j.com.cn
[42]西安历年统计年鉴
[2]毕宝德.中国房地产市场研究[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1994
[3]梁运斌.世纪之交的中国房地产-发展与调控[M].北京:经济管理出版社,1996
[4]中国房地产估价师与房地产经纪人学会.房地产估价理论与方法[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2007
[5]张红.房地产经济学讲义[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2004
[6]俞明轩.房地产投资分析[M].北京:首都经济贸易大学出版社,2004
[7]王要武、罗兆烈、孙平.房地产市场[M].北京:中国计划出版社,1999
[8]王薇.房地产市场供求结构研究[D].西安建筑科技大学,2007
[9]杜吉泽、程钧谟.市场分析[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2001
[10]朱永升、王卫华、韩伯棠.影响房地产市场需求因素的灰色关联度分析[J].北京理工大学学报,2002第22卷第6期
[11]张永岳,陈伯庚.新编房地产经济学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1998
[12]冯套柱、孟亚宁.基于灰色理论的房地产市场需求分析[J].西安石油大学学报,2005
[13]王树林、曲世友.微观经济学[M].北京:科学出版社,2004
[14]2007年上半年西安市房地产发展报告
[15]2007年西安地产需求蓝皮书
[16]L.A.Rose.Urban land supply:natural and contrived re-striction[J].Journal of Urban Economics,1989(25)
[17]马欣.土地供给与房地产市场关系研究.建筑经济[J],2007年第4期(总第294期)
[18]刘琳、刘洪玉.地价与房价的经济学分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2003(7)
[19]林根祥、吴晔、吴现立.市场调查与预测[M].武汉:武汉理工大学出版社,2005
[20]屈援.市场预测理论与应用[M].广州:暨南大学出版社,2003
[21]Adrienne Schmitz,Deborah.L.Brett.Real Estate Market Analysis:A Case Study Approach(M).CITIC Publishing House,2002
[22]郑华.房地产市场分析方法[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2003
[23]张跃庆、丁芸.房地产经济学[M].北京:中国建材工业出版社,2004
[24]丁烈云.房地产开发[M].北京:中国建材工业出版社,2004
[25]中国房地产业协会城市发展专业委员会.中国房地产年度发展报告.北京:中华工商联合出版社,2001
[26]孙永红.房地产市场理论与实践[M].北京:新华出版社,1993
[27]杜吉泽、程钧漠.市场分析[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2001
[28]杨晶、张建军.市场分析[M].广州:暨南大学出版社,2004
[29]Y.C.Richard Wong,Alan K.F.Siu & P.W.Liu.Demand for Private Residential Housing,1997
[30]Gareth Jones & Peter M.Ward.Methodology for land housing market analysis,1994
[31]American Real estate society.Appraisal,Market analysis and public policy in real estate,1996
[32]James D.Vernor.Reading in Market Research for Real Estate,Georgia State University,1995
[33]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕等.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2004:125-150
[34]邓聚龙.灰色系统理论教程[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1990
[35]刘思峰、党耀国、方志耕.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2004
[36]倪绍祥.土地类型与土地评价概论[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1999
[37]郭涛、孟周济、马静.基于主成分分析法对房地产供求协调关系的分析[J].科技信息,2007年第14期
[38]徐彩凤、周健.缓解当前房地产供求结构性矛盾的微观金融调节[J].财经科学,2006/8总221期
[39]郭凌峰.有关房地产供求关系的浅显分析[J].科技与经济,2006年第1期
[40]刘军英.浅谈我国房地产市场供求失衡状况[J].价值工程,2006年第11期
[41]西安房地产信息网:http://www.800j.com.cn
[42]西安历年统计年鉴