房地产市场成熟度评价模型研究
摘要
本文通过对我国房地产业发展历史和现状的分析,指出如何对当前房地产市场进行准确评价对整个房地产业健康发展具有重要意义。
首先,根据房地产开发周期理论、经济周期理论和市场供需分析、竞争结构分析,结合项目管理成熟度模型的定义和应用,提出建立适合我国实际国情的房地产市场成熟度评价模型。
其次,在对房地产市场进行理论分析基础上将房地产市场成熟度评价细分为土地、金融、开发、消费四个子市场的评价,同时对国内现有各种指标体系进行比较分析,并结合房地产市场成熟度评价体系目的和指标选取原则初步确定评价体系的指标,然后以上海市为实证对象,选取行业数据进行相关性分析精简指标后确定最终评价指标。
再次,通过因子分析法确定各指标的权重,并运用3δ理论与经验分析相结合的方法确定上海房地产市场成熟度评价的标准,由此构建了上海市房地产市场成熟度评价模型。
最后,运用成熟度模型对上海房地产市场进行评价,得出上海房地产市场目前属于新兴加转轨型市场的结论,并指出其发展过程中存在的问题,由此提出相应的对策建议。文章最后对上海市房地产市场成熟度评价模型进行总结,指出其不足之处以及改进的设想和展望。
Based on the analysis towards the development and status of China’s real estate industry, the paper tends to point out that how to appraise the real estate market properly can be of great significance to the entire real estate industry develop healthily.
First of all, according to the theory of real estate development cycle and economy cycle, and supply and demand analysis as well as strategy structure analysis, together with the definition and application of project management maturity model, the real estate maturity model fitting for the situation of our country is advanced.
Next, the real estate maturity appraisal is separated into four sub-appraisals: land, finance, develop, consumption. Based on the existed index systems comparisons, the target of the real estate maturity appraisal system and the principle of index selecting, the primary index system is established. Then the paper chooses Shanghai city as the demonstration by data correlation analysis which finally determines the appraisal index system.
Then, while factor analysis determines the weights of indexes, the application of three-δtheory and experimental analysis decides the criterion, hence the model of Shanghai the real estate maturity appraisal model is established.
Finally, with the application of maturity appraisal model, the conclusion comes out that Shanghai real estate belongs to a burgeoning and turning market, also the suggestions have been advanced towards the existing problems during the development process. The end of the paper summarizes the Shanghai real estate maturity appraisal model and brings forward the shortage, improving assumption and prospect.
首先,根据房地产开发周期理论、经济周期理论和市场供需分析、竞争结构分析,结合项目管理成熟度模型的定义和应用,提出建立适合我国实际国情的房地产市场成熟度评价模型。
其次,在对房地产市场进行理论分析基础上将房地产市场成熟度评价细分为土地、金融、开发、消费四个子市场的评价,同时对国内现有各种指标体系进行比较分析,并结合房地产市场成熟度评价体系目的和指标选取原则初步确定评价体系的指标,然后以上海市为实证对象,选取行业数据进行相关性分析精简指标后确定最终评价指标。
再次,通过因子分析法确定各指标的权重,并运用3δ理论与经验分析相结合的方法确定上海房地产市场成熟度评价的标准,由此构建了上海市房地产市场成熟度评价模型。
最后,运用成熟度模型对上海房地产市场进行评价,得出上海房地产市场目前属于新兴加转轨型市场的结论,并指出其发展过程中存在的问题,由此提出相应的对策建议。文章最后对上海市房地产市场成熟度评价模型进行总结,指出其不足之处以及改进的设想和展望。
Based on the analysis towards the development and status of China’s real estate industry, the paper tends to point out that how to appraise the real estate market properly can be of great significance to the entire real estate industry develop healthily.
First of all, according to the theory of real estate development cycle and economy cycle, and supply and demand analysis as well as strategy structure analysis, together with the definition and application of project management maturity model, the real estate maturity model fitting for the situation of our country is advanced.
Next, the real estate maturity appraisal is separated into four sub-appraisals: land, finance, develop, consumption. Based on the existed index systems comparisons, the target of the real estate maturity appraisal system and the principle of index selecting, the primary index system is established. Then the paper chooses Shanghai city as the demonstration by data correlation analysis which finally determines the appraisal index system.
Then, while factor analysis determines the weights of indexes, the application of three-δtheory and experimental analysis decides the criterion, hence the model of Shanghai the real estate maturity appraisal model is established.
Finally, with the application of maturity appraisal model, the conclusion comes out that Shanghai real estate belongs to a burgeoning and turning market, also the suggestions have been advanced towards the existing problems during the development process. The end of the paper summarizes the Shanghai real estate maturity appraisal model and brings forward the shortage, improving assumption and prospect.
引文
[1] Abraham and Hefldershott. Bubbles in Metropolitan Housing Markets [J]. Housing Research, 1996.7
[2] Eric Myott. Housing Early Warning System Feasibility In the Hamline Midway[J].Neighborhood Planning for Community Revitalization,1999.3
[3] Fama, Eugene. Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work [J]. Journal of Finance, 1970.2: 383-417
[4] Harold Kerzner. Strategic Planning for a Project Management[J].Project Management Journal,June,2003.2:l3- 25
[5] Jonathan Mc Carthv and Richard W. Peach. Are Home Price the Next “bubble”[J]. FRBNY Economic Policy Review/Forthcoming. 2004
[6] Jacques N .Gordon,Todd A Canter. International Real Estate Securities:A Test of Capital Market Integration [J].Journal of Real Estate. Portfolio Management,1999.5:161-170
[7] James S.Pennypacker,Kevin P.Grant. Project Management Maturity:An Industry Benchmark [J]. Project Management,2003.3:23-32
[8] Leon Shilton. Random Walks and the Cointegration of ACLI and NCREIF [J]. Real Estate Economics, 2000.3:435- 465.
[9] Norman G.Miller,Michael A.Sklarz. A Note on Leading Indicators of Housing Market Price Trends [J] .The Journal of Real Estate Research. 1986.9:99-109
[10]Robert T. Kleiman, Random Walks and Market Efficiency Evidence from International Real Estate Markets [J]. Journal of Real Estate Research, 2002.3:279- 298.
[11]Steve Fahrenkrog,Claudia M. Baca, Lisa Marie Kruszewski, Paul R. Wesma. Project Management Institute’s Organizational Project Management Maturity Model (OPM3). PMI Global Congress Europe,2003.6:179-186
[12]Steven R. Grenadier and Allen M. Weiss. Investment in technological innovations:An option pricing approach[J]. Journal of Financial Economics,1997.6:397-416
[13]William , Young Hoom Kwak. Assessing Project Management Maturity Project Management [J].Project Management Journal,2000.3:32-43
[14]Wong Kar_jiu,“Housing Market Bubbles and Currency Crisis: The Case of Thailand, Presented at the International Conference on‘The Asia Crisis: The Economics Front’Held in Seattle”[J]. Journal of Real Estate Research ,1998:29-30.
[15]Yuming Fu, Li lian K. Ng. Market Efficiency and Return Statistics: Evidence from Real- estate and Stock Markets Using a Present- value Approach [J]. Real Estate Economics, 2001, 29(2):227- 250.
[16]曹建元.房地产金融.上海:上海财经大学出版社,2003.04
[17]陈凌琦.上海房地产预警系统研究. [D]成都:电子科技大学,2005,
[18]丁烈云,徐泽清.城市房地产预警系统的设计与开发[J].基建优化,2000
[19]丁烈云.房地产周期波动与预警研究[D].博士论文,2002.
[20]杜秋莹,李国平,曾先锋.房地产泡沫的形成机制研究[J].开发研究,2006.1
[21]付克华.早期预警体系的理论回顾及其评价[J].世界经济,2003.3
[22]丰雷,朱勇,谢经荣.中国地产泡沫实证研究[J].管理世界(月刊),2006.10
[23]顾海兵.宏观经济预警:理论、方法、历史[J].经济理论与经济管理,1997
[24]郭磊,王锋,刘长滨. 深圳市房地产预警系统研究[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究,2003
[25]韩德宗.基于 West 模型的房地产泡沫的实证研究---以北京、上海、深圳为例[J].当代经济科学,2005. 5
[26]胡鹏,姚长学,钟叔平.房地产市场先行扩散指数预警检测系统设计[J].四川建筑,2003
[27]黄神佑.城市房地产预警研究. [D]福建:福建师范大学,2006.4
[28]华伟.房地产经济学.复旦大学出版社,2004
[29]何新贵,王纬.软件能力成熟度模型,北京:清华大学出版社,2000:12-19
[30]简德三等.房地产经济学.上海财经大学出版社,2003.1:31-39
[31]姜楠.构建成都市房地产业预警预报系统的构想[D] .成都:西南财经大学,2003.5
[32]李斌,丁烈云,叶艳兵.房地产景气预警中 DI 的改进及与 CI 的精度比较研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2003
[33]刘琳,郑思齐,黄英.房地产泡沫测度系数的编制方法[J].房地产市场,2003.13
[34]李倩.房地产市场综合评价指标体系初探.理论观察,2004.1
[35]李维哲,曲波.地产泡沫预警指标体系与方法研究[J].山西财经大学学报,2002.4
[36]刘学成.中国房地产业周期波动理论与实证研究[D].博士研究生毕业论文 2001
[37]倪鹏飞.房价供需 30 项指标作证:中国房地产有泡沫.互联网,2004
[38]蒲勇健,陈鸿雁.我国房地产市场泡沫存在性的实证研究[J].统计与决策,2006.5
[39]彭翊.城市房地产预警系统设计[J].中国房地产,2002.6
[40]邵华.我国房地产市场泡沫性实证分析[J].产业观察,2007.6
[41]上海市房地产市场预警预报指标体系研究小组.上海市房地产市场预警预报指标体系研究[J].上海房地产,2003
[42]孙维丰等.中国房地产市场发展阶段指标界定研究.集团经济研究,2007.1
[43]谭刚.房地产周期波动.北京经济管理出版社,2001
[44]王克强,郑颖,刘红梅.中国房地产市场弱式有效性的实证研究[J].中国土地科学,2006.6
[45]汪利娜.房地产泡沫的生成机理与防范措施[J]. 财经科学,2003.1:92-97
[46]薛建华.房地产市场预警预报体系研究——以上海为例[D].上海:同济大学,2007.3
[47]杨佃辉,陈轶,屠梅曾.基于聚类分析和非参数检验的房地产预警指标体系选择[J].东华大学学报(自然科学版),2006.2:59-62.
[48]杨帆,李宏谨,李勇.泡沫经济理论与中国房地产市场[J].管理世界,2005.6:64-75.
[49]叶剑平.中国房地产监测预警系统指标体系设计[J].中外房地产导报,2000:16-19
[50]叶艳兵,丁烈云.房地产预警指标体系设计研究[J].基建优化,2001
[51]赵黎明,贾永飞,钱伟荣.房地产预警系统研究[J].天津大学学报(社会科学版),1999
[52]曾力勇等.湖南省房地产市场评价模型的建立及评价.湖南社会科学,2006.3
[53]郑 思 齐 , 刘 红 玉 . 房 地 产 市 场 有 效 性 研 究 — 以 北 京 和 上 海 为 例 [J]. 商业 研究,2006.7:191-195
[54]张增华译.Harold Kerzner(美)著.项目管理的战略规划——项目管理成熟度模型的应用.北京:电子工业出版社,2002.4 :3-6,35-66,186-191
[55]周忠学,李永江. 房地产业预警预报系统影响因素的主成分分析[J]. 企业经济,2003
[2] Eric Myott. Housing Early Warning System Feasibility In the Hamline Midway[J].Neighborhood Planning for Community Revitalization,1999.3
[3] Fama, Eugene. Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work [J]. Journal of Finance, 1970.2: 383-417
[4] Harold Kerzner. Strategic Planning for a Project Management[J].Project Management Journal,June,2003.2:l3- 25
[5] Jonathan Mc Carthv and Richard W. Peach. Are Home Price the Next “bubble”[J]. FRBNY Economic Policy Review/Forthcoming. 2004
[6] Jacques N .Gordon,Todd A Canter. International Real Estate Securities:A Test of Capital Market Integration [J].Journal of Real Estate. Portfolio Management,1999.5:161-170
[7] James S.Pennypacker,Kevin P.Grant. Project Management Maturity:An Industry Benchmark [J]. Project Management,2003.3:23-32
[8] Leon Shilton. Random Walks and the Cointegration of ACLI and NCREIF [J]. Real Estate Economics, 2000.3:435- 465.
[9] Norman G.Miller,Michael A.Sklarz. A Note on Leading Indicators of Housing Market Price Trends [J] .The Journal of Real Estate Research. 1986.9:99-109
[10]Robert T. Kleiman, Random Walks and Market Efficiency Evidence from International Real Estate Markets [J]. Journal of Real Estate Research, 2002.3:279- 298.
[11]Steve Fahrenkrog,Claudia M. Baca, Lisa Marie Kruszewski, Paul R. Wesma. Project Management Institute’s Organizational Project Management Maturity Model (OPM3). PMI Global Congress Europe,2003.6:179-186
[12]Steven R. Grenadier and Allen M. Weiss. Investment in technological innovations:An option pricing approach[J]. Journal of Financial Economics,1997.6:397-416
[13]William , Young Hoom Kwak. Assessing Project Management Maturity Project Management [J].Project Management Journal,2000.3:32-43
[14]Wong Kar_jiu,“Housing Market Bubbles and Currency Crisis: The Case of Thailand, Presented at the International Conference on‘The Asia Crisis: The Economics Front’Held in Seattle”[J]. Journal of Real Estate Research ,1998:29-30.
[15]Yuming Fu, Li lian K. Ng. Market Efficiency and Return Statistics: Evidence from Real- estate and Stock Markets Using a Present- value Approach [J]. Real Estate Economics, 2001, 29(2):227- 250.
[16]曹建元.房地产金融.上海:上海财经大学出版社,2003.04
[17]陈凌琦.上海房地产预警系统研究. [D]成都:电子科技大学,2005,
[18]丁烈云,徐泽清.城市房地产预警系统的设计与开发[J].基建优化,2000
[19]丁烈云.房地产周期波动与预警研究[D].博士论文,2002.
[20]杜秋莹,李国平,曾先锋.房地产泡沫的形成机制研究[J].开发研究,2006.1
[21]付克华.早期预警体系的理论回顾及其评价[J].世界经济,2003.3
[22]丰雷,朱勇,谢经荣.中国地产泡沫实证研究[J].管理世界(月刊),2006.10
[23]顾海兵.宏观经济预警:理论、方法、历史[J].经济理论与经济管理,1997
[24]郭磊,王锋,刘长滨. 深圳市房地产预警系统研究[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究,2003
[25]韩德宗.基于 West 模型的房地产泡沫的实证研究---以北京、上海、深圳为例[J].当代经济科学,2005. 5
[26]胡鹏,姚长学,钟叔平.房地产市场先行扩散指数预警检测系统设计[J].四川建筑,2003
[27]黄神佑.城市房地产预警研究. [D]福建:福建师范大学,2006.4
[28]华伟.房地产经济学.复旦大学出版社,2004
[29]何新贵,王纬.软件能力成熟度模型,北京:清华大学出版社,2000:12-19
[30]简德三等.房地产经济学.上海财经大学出版社,2003.1:31-39
[31]姜楠.构建成都市房地产业预警预报系统的构想[D] .成都:西南财经大学,2003.5
[32]李斌,丁烈云,叶艳兵.房地产景气预警中 DI 的改进及与 CI 的精度比较研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2003
[33]刘琳,郑思齐,黄英.房地产泡沫测度系数的编制方法[J].房地产市场,2003.13
[34]李倩.房地产市场综合评价指标体系初探.理论观察,2004.1
[35]李维哲,曲波.地产泡沫预警指标体系与方法研究[J].山西财经大学学报,2002.4
[36]刘学成.中国房地产业周期波动理论与实证研究[D].博士研究生毕业论文 2001
[37]倪鹏飞.房价供需 30 项指标作证:中国房地产有泡沫.互联网,2004
[38]蒲勇健,陈鸿雁.我国房地产市场泡沫存在性的实证研究[J].统计与决策,2006.5
[39]彭翊.城市房地产预警系统设计[J].中国房地产,2002.6
[40]邵华.我国房地产市场泡沫性实证分析[J].产业观察,2007.6
[41]上海市房地产市场预警预报指标体系研究小组.上海市房地产市场预警预报指标体系研究[J].上海房地产,2003
[42]孙维丰等.中国房地产市场发展阶段指标界定研究.集团经济研究,2007.1
[43]谭刚.房地产周期波动.北京经济管理出版社,2001
[44]王克强,郑颖,刘红梅.中国房地产市场弱式有效性的实证研究[J].中国土地科学,2006.6
[45]汪利娜.房地产泡沫的生成机理与防范措施[J]. 财经科学,2003.1:92-97
[46]薛建华.房地产市场预警预报体系研究——以上海为例[D].上海:同济大学,2007.3
[47]杨佃辉,陈轶,屠梅曾.基于聚类分析和非参数检验的房地产预警指标体系选择[J].东华大学学报(自然科学版),2006.2:59-62.
[48]杨帆,李宏谨,李勇.泡沫经济理论与中国房地产市场[J].管理世界,2005.6:64-75.
[49]叶剑平.中国房地产监测预警系统指标体系设计[J].中外房地产导报,2000:16-19
[50]叶艳兵,丁烈云.房地产预警指标体系设计研究[J].基建优化,2001
[51]赵黎明,贾永飞,钱伟荣.房地产预警系统研究[J].天津大学学报(社会科学版),1999
[52]曾力勇等.湖南省房地产市场评价模型的建立及评价.湖南社会科学,2006.3
[53]郑 思 齐 , 刘 红 玉 . 房 地 产 市 场 有 效 性 研 究 — 以 北 京 和 上 海 为 例 [J]. 商业 研究,2006.7:191-195
[54]张增华译.Harold Kerzner(美)著.项目管理的战略规划——项目管理成熟度模型的应用.北京:电子工业出版社,2002.4 :3-6,35-66,186-191
[55]周忠学,李永江. 房地产业预警预报系统影响因素的主成分分析[J]. 企业经济,2003