苏州市房地产泡沫测度及预警研究
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摘要
2002年8月,摩根斯坦利亚洲首席经济学家谢国忠在一篇名为《Bursting Property Bubble?(房地产泡沫会破灭吗?)》的英文研究报告中指出,由于中国目前资本过剩,高收益率正吸引着越来越多的资本投入房地产,他担心房地产有可能出现泡沫现象。自从这篇报告问世以来,社会各界,包括政府官员、知名学者、业内人士等关于我国房地产业是否出现过热或泡沫的文章、言论,不断出现在媒体上。
本文的主要任务就是研究2000-2007年的苏州市房地产市场是否存在泡沫。本文在理论回顾的基础上,运用指标指示法、理论价格法和统计检验法对苏州市房地产泡沫进行多角度测度,借助功效系数法建立房地产泡沫的预警系统并对苏州市房地产泡沫进行实证研究。最终得出的结论是,苏州市房地产市场处于健康发展状态,基本无泡沫。在此基础上,就苏州市房地产市场的潜在泡沫提出了一些风险的防控和相关政策建议。
The top economist called Xie Guozhong in Morgan Stanley wrote an English research report named《Bursting Property Bubble?》in August, 2002. He indicated that high yield was attracting more and more capital diving into real estate on account of capital overmuch in China. He was afraid that bubbles had appeared in Chinese real estate. Since the advent of this report, all communities, including government officials、famous scholars etc. have written many articles about whether China’s real-estate is overheating or existing bubble.
The main task of this article is to study whether there is bubble exist in Suzhou’s real-estate market from 2000 to 2007. Based on theoretical analysis, the article use the method of indicator-tracing、theoretical-price、statistics-test to measure the bubble of Suzhou’s real-estate market. By the means of efficiency-coefficient method, we make empirical analysis on the basic of the foundation of the early-warning system. Finally we get the conclusion that the real-estate market of Suzhou is in the situation of healthy development, basically no bubble. On the basis, we propose some risk-guard control policies to the latent bubble in real-estate market of Suzhou.
本文的主要任务就是研究2000-2007年的苏州市房地产市场是否存在泡沫。本文在理论回顾的基础上,运用指标指示法、理论价格法和统计检验法对苏州市房地产泡沫进行多角度测度,借助功效系数法建立房地产泡沫的预警系统并对苏州市房地产泡沫进行实证研究。最终得出的结论是,苏州市房地产市场处于健康发展状态,基本无泡沫。在此基础上,就苏州市房地产市场的潜在泡沫提出了一些风险的防控和相关政策建议。
The top economist called Xie Guozhong in Morgan Stanley wrote an English research report named《Bursting Property Bubble?》in August, 2002. He indicated that high yield was attracting more and more capital diving into real estate on account of capital overmuch in China. He was afraid that bubbles had appeared in Chinese real estate. Since the advent of this report, all communities, including government officials、famous scholars etc. have written many articles about whether China’s real-estate is overheating or existing bubble.
The main task of this article is to study whether there is bubble exist in Suzhou’s real-estate market from 2000 to 2007. Based on theoretical analysis, the article use the method of indicator-tracing、theoretical-price、statistics-test to measure the bubble of Suzhou’s real-estate market. By the means of efficiency-coefficient method, we make empirical analysis on the basic of the foundation of the early-warning system. Finally we get the conclusion that the real-estate market of Suzhou is in the situation of healthy development, basically no bubble. On the basis, we propose some risk-guard control policies to the latent bubble in real-estate market of Suzhou.
引文
3 谢经荣等.《地产泡沫与金融危机:国际经验及其借鉴》[M] .北京:经济管理出版社,2002
【1】Herring, R and S. Wachter (1999): Real Estate Booms and Banking Busts: An International Perspective, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Occasional Papers No.58,
【2】Blanchard, O. J and Stanley F. Lectures on Macroeconomics, The MIT Press,1989.
【3】Salge,M. Rational Bubbles-Theoretical Basis, Economic Relevance, and Empirical Evidence with a Special Emphasis on the German Stock Market, Published by Springer-Verlag,1996.
【4】Abraham Research and Hefldershott. Bubbles in Metropolitan Housing Markets. Journal of Housing Vol.7, Issue.7 1996.
【5】Hamilton,J.D., On Testing for Self-Fulfilling Speculative Price Bubbles, International Economic Review, 1986, p.p.545-552.
【6】April Michael Carliner, House Price Bubble Babble, Housing Economics.2002
【7】 Jonathan McCarthy and Richard W. Peach Monetary Policy Transmission to Residential Investment Economic Policy Review/ May 2004.
【8】Alan R.Winger., Why the Emerging Economy Will Mean More Systemic Risk in Real Estate Lending, Real Estate Issue, Vol, 27, Iss 1,Spring 2002,pp.28-35.
【9】Behzad T. Diba and Herschel I. Grossman Rational Asset Price Bubbles, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 1059.
【10】Tirole, Jean Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations, Vol. 53, 1985,
【11】Robert. P. Flood and Robert J. Hodriclz, On Testing for Speculation Bubbles, Journal of Economic Perspectives Volume 4, Number 2, Spring 1990.
【12】Michael Sklar, Norm Miler, The bursting House Bubble ?, Services Perspective, August 2002.
【13】Kioki Bjorlclund and Soderberg, Property Cycles, Speculation Bubbles and the incorne multiplier, Journal of real estate research Sacramento, Jul/Aug 1999, vol.l8.Iss. l:pg151
【14】(日)野口悠纪雄,《土地经济学》[M],北京:商务印书出版社,1997
【15】彼得·加伯,《泡沫的秘密——早期金融狂热的基本原理》[M],华夏出版社,2003 年版
【16】陈伯庚,《经济理论与房地产研究论文集》[M],上海人民出版社,2003 年版
【17】常永胜,《中国房地产金融体系研究》[M],经济科学出版社,2001 年版
【18】丹尼斯·迪帕斯奎尔、威廉·C·惠顿《城市经济学与房地产市场》[M],经济科学出版社,2002 年版
【19】谢经荣等,《地产泡沫与金融危机——国际经验及其借鉴》[M],经济管理出版社,2002 年版
【20】田东海,《住房政策:国际经验借鉴和中国显示选择》[M],清华大学出版社,1998 年版
【21】王子明,《泡沫与泡沫经济——非均衡分析》[M],北京大学出版社,2002 年版
【22】于宗先等,《泡沫经济于金融危机》[M],中国人民大学出版社,2000 年版
【23】宋忠敏等,课题报告《上海房地产市场波动的定论研究——实证分析报告》[J],2003 年
【24】宋忠敏,《三大指标看房地产泡沫》[J],《国际金融时报》第 10 版,2004 年 5月 31 日
【25】搜房研究院,《中国房地产指数系统:理论与实践》[M],中国财政经济出版社,2001 年版
【26】成思危等,《东南亚金融危机得分析与启示》[M],明主与建设出版社,1999年版
【27】刘琳、黄英、刘洪玉,《房地产泡沫测度系数研究》[J],《价格理论与实践》,2003(3)
【28】谢三百,《高度警惕我国部分城市房地产业的泡沫经济卷土重来》[J],《价格理论与实践》,2003(1)
【29】袁志刚、樊潇彦,《房地产市场理性泡沫分析》[J],《经济研究》2003(3)
【30】袁贤祯,《房地产业监测预警系统的构想》[J],《中国房地产》,1998(4)
【31】何国钊、曹振良、李晟,《中古房地产周期研究》[J],《经济研究》,1999(12)
【32】曹国安、曹明,《西方国家住房保障体制及其启示》[J],《中国房地产》,2003(6)
【33】包宗华,《关于泡沫经济于房地产业》[J],《中国房地产》,2003(9)
【34】李维哲、曲波,《地产泡沫预警系统研究》[J],《中国房地产金融》,2002(8)
【35】洪开荣,《房地产泡沫形成、转化与吸收》[J],《中国房地产金融》,2001(8)
【36】赵黎明等,房地产预警系统研究[J],《天津大学学报(社科版)》,1999(12)
【37】刘春杰、宋耀华,房地产市场的泡沫问题及其防范[J],《浙江金融》,2000(6)
【38】刘明兴、罗俊伟,泡沫经济与金融危机[J],《经济学家》,2000(4)
【39】苏州市统计局,《苏州统计年鉴(1999-2007 年)》[M],中国统计出版社 1999-2007 年
【40】王晓国、刘绍育,《我国房地产业冷热的实证研究》[J],《价格理论与实践》,2003(11)
【41】王雪锋,《中国房地产泡沫的测度研究》[J],《现代经济探讨》,2005(8)
【1】Herring, R and S. Wachter (1999): Real Estate Booms and Banking Busts: An International Perspective, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Occasional Papers No.58,
【2】Blanchard, O. J and Stanley F. Lectures on Macroeconomics, The MIT Press,1989.
【3】Salge,M. Rational Bubbles-Theoretical Basis, Economic Relevance, and Empirical Evidence with a Special Emphasis on the German Stock Market, Published by Springer-Verlag,1996.
【4】Abraham Research and Hefldershott. Bubbles in Metropolitan Housing Markets. Journal of Housing Vol.7, Issue.7 1996.
【5】Hamilton,J.D., On Testing for Self-Fulfilling Speculative Price Bubbles, International Economic Review, 1986, p.p.545-552.
【6】April Michael Carliner, House Price Bubble Babble, Housing Economics.2002
【7】 Jonathan McCarthy and Richard W. Peach Monetary Policy Transmission to Residential Investment Economic Policy Review/ May 2004.
【8】Alan R.Winger., Why the Emerging Economy Will Mean More Systemic Risk in Real Estate Lending, Real Estate Issue, Vol, 27, Iss 1,Spring 2002,pp.28-35.
【9】Behzad T. Diba and Herschel I. Grossman Rational Asset Price Bubbles, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 1059.
【10】Tirole, Jean Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations, Vol. 53, 1985,
【11】Robert. P. Flood and Robert J. Hodriclz, On Testing for Speculation Bubbles, Journal of Economic Perspectives Volume 4, Number 2, Spring 1990.
【12】Michael Sklar, Norm Miler, The bursting House Bubble ?, Services Perspective, August 2002.
【13】Kioki Bjorlclund and Soderberg, Property Cycles, Speculation Bubbles and the incorne multiplier, Journal of real estate research Sacramento, Jul/Aug 1999, vol.l8.Iss. l:pg151
【14】(日)野口悠纪雄,《土地经济学》[M],北京:商务印书出版社,1997
【15】彼得·加伯,《泡沫的秘密——早期金融狂热的基本原理》[M],华夏出版社,2003 年版
【16】陈伯庚,《经济理论与房地产研究论文集》[M],上海人民出版社,2003 年版
【17】常永胜,《中国房地产金融体系研究》[M],经济科学出版社,2001 年版
【18】丹尼斯·迪帕斯奎尔、威廉·C·惠顿《城市经济学与房地产市场》[M],经济科学出版社,2002 年版
【19】谢经荣等,《地产泡沫与金融危机——国际经验及其借鉴》[M],经济管理出版社,2002 年版
【20】田东海,《住房政策:国际经验借鉴和中国显示选择》[M],清华大学出版社,1998 年版
【21】王子明,《泡沫与泡沫经济——非均衡分析》[M],北京大学出版社,2002 年版
【22】于宗先等,《泡沫经济于金融危机》[M],中国人民大学出版社,2000 年版
【23】宋忠敏等,课题报告《上海房地产市场波动的定论研究——实证分析报告》[J],2003 年
【24】宋忠敏,《三大指标看房地产泡沫》[J],《国际金融时报》第 10 版,2004 年 5月 31 日
【25】搜房研究院,《中国房地产指数系统:理论与实践》[M],中国财政经济出版社,2001 年版
【26】成思危等,《东南亚金融危机得分析与启示》[M],明主与建设出版社,1999年版
【27】刘琳、黄英、刘洪玉,《房地产泡沫测度系数研究》[J],《价格理论与实践》,2003(3)
【28】谢三百,《高度警惕我国部分城市房地产业的泡沫经济卷土重来》[J],《价格理论与实践》,2003(1)
【29】袁志刚、樊潇彦,《房地产市场理性泡沫分析》[J],《经济研究》2003(3)
【30】袁贤祯,《房地产业监测预警系统的构想》[J],《中国房地产》,1998(4)
【31】何国钊、曹振良、李晟,《中古房地产周期研究》[J],《经济研究》,1999(12)
【32】曹国安、曹明,《西方国家住房保障体制及其启示》[J],《中国房地产》,2003(6)
【33】包宗华,《关于泡沫经济于房地产业》[J],《中国房地产》,2003(9)
【34】李维哲、曲波,《地产泡沫预警系统研究》[J],《中国房地产金融》,2002(8)
【35】洪开荣,《房地产泡沫形成、转化与吸收》[J],《中国房地产金融》,2001(8)
【36】赵黎明等,房地产预警系统研究[J],《天津大学学报(社科版)》,1999(12)
【37】刘春杰、宋耀华,房地产市场的泡沫问题及其防范[J],《浙江金融》,2000(6)
【38】刘明兴、罗俊伟,泡沫经济与金融危机[J],《经济学家》,2000(4)
【39】苏州市统计局,《苏州统计年鉴(1999-2007 年)》[M],中国统计出版社 1999-2007 年
【40】王晓国、刘绍育,《我国房地产业冷热的实证研究》[J],《价格理论与实践》,2003(11)
【41】王雪锋,《中国房地产泡沫的测度研究》[J],《现代经济探讨》,2005(8)