我国东中西部经济增长对环境污染影响的对比研究
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摘要
当今世界,环境问题引起越来越多的关注,经济增长与环境污染之间的关系已经成为国内外学者研究的热点问题。改革开放以来,我国经济高速发展,伴随着各种各样的问题产生,研究中国的经济增长与环境污染之间的关系意义尤为重大。基于我国区域经济发展的不均衡性,本文分别从东部地区、中部地区和西部地区三个经济区域出发,分别研究各区域的经济增长与环境污染的关系。环境库兹涅茨曲线作为度量经济发展影响环境质量的最佳方法,成为该领域研究的重要选择。因此,本文以环境库兹涅茨曲线为参考点,根据我国2000-2007年的数据,构造环境—收入曲线模型,对我国不同经济区域进行对比研究。
为了验证我国三大经济区域经济增长与环境污染之间的关系,本文引入了环境—经济系统的概念,分为“和谐”、“矛盾”、“和谐—矛盾—和谐”三种情况讨论了经济与环境之间的关系。环境库兹涅茨曲线正好印证了“和谐—矛盾—和谐”的关系,其形状呈现倒U型。以倒U型转折点做分界线,倒U型被分成了左半段和右半段,左半段区域被称为环境与经济的两难区,右半段区域被称为环境与经济的双赢区。一个国家或地区的环境—经济所处阶段,可通过实际人均GDP与转折点比较得到。根据上述思路方法,本文用人均GDP指标代表经济增长,五大工业污染物排放量指标代表环境污染,利用面板数据建立了基本模型,分别拟合了我国东部、中部、西部的环境—收入曲线。为了进一步研究其他因素是否影响环境—收入曲线,本文又添加了人口规模、进出口贸易、产业结构三大控制变量,建立了扩展模型,分别拟合了我国东部、中部、西部的扩展环境—收入曲线。随后,本文对比了我国不同区域之间的环境—收入曲线的差异,又对比了基本模型和扩展模型拟合结果的差异。
通过上述两种对比,本文得出以下结论:第一,我国三个经济区域的环境影响因素不相同;第二,如果模型选取控制变量不同,得到的拟合结果可能不同;第三,在我国并非所有的污染物拟合曲线都符合传统的环境库兹涅茨倒U型。
In today's world, environmental problems caused by more and more concerned, the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution at home and abroad has become a hot issue of research scholars. Since reform and opening up of China, rapid economic development, along with a wide range of issues, to study the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution becomes important. Based on China's uneven regional economic development, this article from the eastern region, central region and the western region to study the relationship. Environmental Kuznets curve has become an important choice as the best way to measure the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution. Therefore, the environmental Kuznets curve as a reference point, according to China's 2000-2007 data, tectonic environment - income curve model to study the different economic regions.
In order to verify the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution of the three major economic regions, the paper introduces the concept environment-economic system, from "harmony", "contradiction", "Harmony - contradictions - a harmonious", the three situations to discuss the relationship. Environmental Kuznets Curve showed inverted U-shape, demonstrates that the "harmony - contradictions - a harmonious" relationship. Inverted U-turning-point divide the curve into left and right of the paragraph, above left, known as the regional environment and economic dilemma zone, right above the region known as the environmental and economic win-win District. Through the real per capita GDP compared with the turning point, we can see the stage of the country or region.
According to the idea of method, using the GDP per capita on behalf of economic growth, the five indicators of industrial emissions on behalf of environmental pollution, establish the basic model with the panel data, and fit curves of the three regions. In order to further study whether other factors affect the environment - the income curve, the paper adds three factors, respectively establish the expansion model, and fit new curves. Then, the paper contracts the curves of the different regions, and contracts the difference of the basic model and the expansion model.
Through the above-mentioned two types of contrast, the paper reaches the following conclusions: First, the environmental impact factors are not identical of China's three economic regions; Second, if select different factors, the fitting results could be different; Third, not all fitting curves are in line with traditional environmental Kuznets inverted U.
为了验证我国三大经济区域经济增长与环境污染之间的关系,本文引入了环境—经济系统的概念,分为“和谐”、“矛盾”、“和谐—矛盾—和谐”三种情况讨论了经济与环境之间的关系。环境库兹涅茨曲线正好印证了“和谐—矛盾—和谐”的关系,其形状呈现倒U型。以倒U型转折点做分界线,倒U型被分成了左半段和右半段,左半段区域被称为环境与经济的两难区,右半段区域被称为环境与经济的双赢区。一个国家或地区的环境—经济所处阶段,可通过实际人均GDP与转折点比较得到。根据上述思路方法,本文用人均GDP指标代表经济增长,五大工业污染物排放量指标代表环境污染,利用面板数据建立了基本模型,分别拟合了我国东部、中部、西部的环境—收入曲线。为了进一步研究其他因素是否影响环境—收入曲线,本文又添加了人口规模、进出口贸易、产业结构三大控制变量,建立了扩展模型,分别拟合了我国东部、中部、西部的扩展环境—收入曲线。随后,本文对比了我国不同区域之间的环境—收入曲线的差异,又对比了基本模型和扩展模型拟合结果的差异。
通过上述两种对比,本文得出以下结论:第一,我国三个经济区域的环境影响因素不相同;第二,如果模型选取控制变量不同,得到的拟合结果可能不同;第三,在我国并非所有的污染物拟合曲线都符合传统的环境库兹涅茨倒U型。
In today's world, environmental problems caused by more and more concerned, the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution at home and abroad has become a hot issue of research scholars. Since reform and opening up of China, rapid economic development, along with a wide range of issues, to study the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution becomes important. Based on China's uneven regional economic development, this article from the eastern region, central region and the western region to study the relationship. Environmental Kuznets curve has become an important choice as the best way to measure the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution. Therefore, the environmental Kuznets curve as a reference point, according to China's 2000-2007 data, tectonic environment - income curve model to study the different economic regions.
In order to verify the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution of the three major economic regions, the paper introduces the concept environment-economic system, from "harmony", "contradiction", "Harmony - contradictions - a harmonious", the three situations to discuss the relationship. Environmental Kuznets Curve showed inverted U-shape, demonstrates that the "harmony - contradictions - a harmonious" relationship. Inverted U-turning-point divide the curve into left and right of the paragraph, above left, known as the regional environment and economic dilemma zone, right above the region known as the environmental and economic win-win District. Through the real per capita GDP compared with the turning point, we can see the stage of the country or region.
According to the idea of method, using the GDP per capita on behalf of economic growth, the five indicators of industrial emissions on behalf of environmental pollution, establish the basic model with the panel data, and fit curves of the three regions. In order to further study whether other factors affect the environment - the income curve, the paper adds three factors, respectively establish the expansion model, and fit new curves. Then, the paper contracts the curves of the different regions, and contracts the difference of the basic model and the expansion model.
Through the above-mentioned two types of contrast, the paper reaches the following conclusions: First, the environmental impact factors are not identical of China's three economic regions; Second, if select different factors, the fitting results could be different; Third, not all fitting curves are in line with traditional environmental Kuznets inverted U.
引文
[1]张红凤,陈淑霞.环境与经济双赢的规制内在机理和对策.财经问题研究, 2008, (3):43-46
[2]杨士弘.城市生态环境学.北京:科学出版社, 2003, 40-68
[3]陈华文,刘康兵.经济增长与环境质量:关于环境库兹涅茨曲线的经验分.复旦大学学报(社会科学版), 2004, (2):87-94
[4] Grossman G and Krueger M. Environmental impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement .Princeton NT: Woodrow Wilson School, 1992
[5] Selden T, Song D. Environmental quality and development: Is there a Kuznets curve for air pollution emission .Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 1994, 35:126
[6] Hilton FGH, Levinson A. Factoring the environmental Kuznets Curve: evidence from automotive emissions. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 1998, 35-41
[7] Grossman G, Krueger A. Economic Growth and the Environment . Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1995
[8] Panayotou, T Economic Growth and the environment Working Paper Center for International Development at Harvaral University, 2000
[9]马树才,李国柱.中国经济增长与环境污染关系的Kuznets曲线.统计研究, 2006, (8):25-30
[10] Jaekyu Lim. Economic Growth and Environment: Some Empirical Evidences from South Korea, University of New South Wales, 1997
[11] Hannes Egli, Are Cross-Country Studies of the Environmental Kuznets Curve Misleading? New Evidence from Time Series Date for Germany. Discussion of Ernst-Moritz-Arndt University of Greifswald, 2001, 10
[12] Kathleen M. Day. And R. Quentin Grafton, Growth and the Environment in Canada: an Empirical Analysis, Discussion Paper of The Australian National University , 2001
[13] Birgit Friedl, Michael Getzner. Environment and growth in a small open economy: an EKC case-study for Austrian CO2 emissions .Discussion Paper of The College of Business Administration University of Klagenfurt, Austria, 2002
[14] EKINS P.The Kuznets curve for the environment and economic growth:Examining the evidence. Environment and Planning, 1997, (29):805-830
[15] STERN D.Progress on the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Environment and Development Economics, 1998, (3):175-198
[16] de BRUYN S,HEINTZ R J. The Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Handbook of Environmental Economics. Oxford: Blackwell Publishing Co, 1998
[17] STAGL S. Delinking economic growth from environmental degradation? A literature survey on the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Vienna University of Economics and Business Administration, 1999, 6
[18] DASGUPTA P,LAPLANTE B,WANG H,etal. Confronting the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2002,16(1):147-168
[19] SINDAS. Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis:A survey.Ecological Economics, 2004(49):431-455
[20] SHAFIK N.Economic development and environmental quality:An econometric analysis. Oxford Economic Papers, 1994, (46):757-773
[21]张慧,赵延德.兰州市经济增长与环境污染演进计量模型分析.上海工程技术大学学报, 2006, (4):5-11
[22]王志华,温宗国,闫芳等.北京环境库兹涅茨曲线假设的验证.中国人口·资源与环境, 2007,17(2):40-47
[23]董娴,刘鉴侠,袁锋军.实现环境与经济的协调发展——陕西省经济增长与环境污染相关性分析.中国内蒙古大学学报, 2007, (9):14-17
[24]田晓四,陈杰,朱诚等.南京市经济增长与工业“三废”污染水平计量模型研究.长江流域资源与环境, 2007, (16):56-62
[25]韩中豪,胡雄星,张明旭.上海市经济增长与环境污染水平的关系.环境与可持续发展, 2007, (2):102-107
[26]刘耀彬.中国城市经济增长与环境质量变化关系的实证研究.商业研究, 2007, (10): 74-79
[27]刘荣茂,张莉侠,孟令杰.经济增长与环境质量:来自中国省际面板数据的证据,经济地理, 2006, 26(3):374-377
[28]许士春,何正霞.中国经济增长与环境污染的实证分析.经济体制改革, 2007, (4): 22-26
[29]郭红燕,樊峰鸣,吴季松.中国经济增长与环境污染关系实证研究.科技导刊, 2007, 25(16):42-48
[30]彭水军,包群.经济增长与环境污染.财经问题研究, 2006, (8):5-12
[31]刘燕,潘杨,陈刚.经济开放条件下的经济增长与环境质量.上海财经大学学报, 2006, 8(6):48-55
[32]李海鹏,叶慧,张俊飚.中国收入差距与环境质量关系的实证检验.中国人口·资源与环境, 2006, 16(2):46-50
[33]拜琦瑞,杨开忠.中国经济增长与环境污染演进关系实证研究.经济问题探索, 2008, (3):6-10
[34]赵细康,李建民,王金营等.环境库兹涅茨曲线及在中国的检验.南开经济研究, 2005, (3):48-54
[35]陈腊娇,冯利华,徐璐.浙江省废水排放增长的EKC曲线特征分析.城市环境与城市生态, 2006, 19(4):14-22
[36]王西琴,李芬.天津市经济增长与环境污染水平关系.地理研究, 2005,24(6): 836-841
[37] ]蒋妮姗,李新.苏州市经济发展与环境污染耦合关系的实证研究.环境科学与管理, 2007, 32(3):112-115
[38]刘坤,刘贤赵,常文静.烟台市经济增长与环境污染关系实证研究. 2007, 27(11): 1930-1937
[39]苏伟,刘景双.吉林省经济增长与环境污染关系研究.干旱区资源与环境, 2007, 21(2):37-41
[40]曲福田,赵海霞,朱德明等.江苏省环境污染及影响因素区域差异比较研究.长江流域资源与环境, 2006, 15(1):86-91
[41]王彦彭.中部六省环境污染与经济增长关系实证分析.生态经济, 2008, (8): 84-88
[42]任春艳,吴殿延,董锁成.西北地区城市化对城市气候环境的影响.地理研究, 2006, 25(2):233-241
[43]易丹辉.数据与EViews应用.中国统计出版社, 2002, 114-140
[44]孙敬水,马淑琴.计量经济学.清华大学出版社, 2004, 9-22
[2]杨士弘.城市生态环境学.北京:科学出版社, 2003, 40-68
[3]陈华文,刘康兵.经济增长与环境质量:关于环境库兹涅茨曲线的经验分.复旦大学学报(社会科学版), 2004, (2):87-94
[4] Grossman G and Krueger M. Environmental impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement .Princeton NT: Woodrow Wilson School, 1992
[5] Selden T, Song D. Environmental quality and development: Is there a Kuznets curve for air pollution emission .Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 1994, 35:126
[6] Hilton FGH, Levinson A. Factoring the environmental Kuznets Curve: evidence from automotive emissions. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 1998, 35-41
[7] Grossman G, Krueger A. Economic Growth and the Environment . Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1995
[8] Panayotou, T Economic Growth and the environment Working Paper Center for International Development at Harvaral University, 2000
[9]马树才,李国柱.中国经济增长与环境污染关系的Kuznets曲线.统计研究, 2006, (8):25-30
[10] Jaekyu Lim. Economic Growth and Environment: Some Empirical Evidences from South Korea, University of New South Wales, 1997
[11] Hannes Egli, Are Cross-Country Studies of the Environmental Kuznets Curve Misleading? New Evidence from Time Series Date for Germany. Discussion of Ernst-Moritz-Arndt University of Greifswald, 2001, 10
[12] Kathleen M. Day. And R. Quentin Grafton, Growth and the Environment in Canada: an Empirical Analysis, Discussion Paper of The Australian National University , 2001
[13] Birgit Friedl, Michael Getzner. Environment and growth in a small open economy: an EKC case-study for Austrian CO2 emissions .Discussion Paper of The College of Business Administration University of Klagenfurt, Austria, 2002
[14] EKINS P.The Kuznets curve for the environment and economic growth:Examining the evidence. Environment and Planning, 1997, (29):805-830
[15] STERN D.Progress on the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Environment and Development Economics, 1998, (3):175-198
[16] de BRUYN S,HEINTZ R J. The Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Handbook of Environmental Economics. Oxford: Blackwell Publishing Co, 1998
[17] STAGL S. Delinking economic growth from environmental degradation? A literature survey on the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Vienna University of Economics and Business Administration, 1999, 6
[18] DASGUPTA P,LAPLANTE B,WANG H,etal. Confronting the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2002,16(1):147-168
[19] SINDAS. Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis:A survey.Ecological Economics, 2004(49):431-455
[20] SHAFIK N.Economic development and environmental quality:An econometric analysis. Oxford Economic Papers, 1994, (46):757-773
[21]张慧,赵延德.兰州市经济增长与环境污染演进计量模型分析.上海工程技术大学学报, 2006, (4):5-11
[22]王志华,温宗国,闫芳等.北京环境库兹涅茨曲线假设的验证.中国人口·资源与环境, 2007,17(2):40-47
[23]董娴,刘鉴侠,袁锋军.实现环境与经济的协调发展——陕西省经济增长与环境污染相关性分析.中国内蒙古大学学报, 2007, (9):14-17
[24]田晓四,陈杰,朱诚等.南京市经济增长与工业“三废”污染水平计量模型研究.长江流域资源与环境, 2007, (16):56-62
[25]韩中豪,胡雄星,张明旭.上海市经济增长与环境污染水平的关系.环境与可持续发展, 2007, (2):102-107
[26]刘耀彬.中国城市经济增长与环境质量变化关系的实证研究.商业研究, 2007, (10): 74-79
[27]刘荣茂,张莉侠,孟令杰.经济增长与环境质量:来自中国省际面板数据的证据,经济地理, 2006, 26(3):374-377
[28]许士春,何正霞.中国经济增长与环境污染的实证分析.经济体制改革, 2007, (4): 22-26
[29]郭红燕,樊峰鸣,吴季松.中国经济增长与环境污染关系实证研究.科技导刊, 2007, 25(16):42-48
[30]彭水军,包群.经济增长与环境污染.财经问题研究, 2006, (8):5-12
[31]刘燕,潘杨,陈刚.经济开放条件下的经济增长与环境质量.上海财经大学学报, 2006, 8(6):48-55
[32]李海鹏,叶慧,张俊飚.中国收入差距与环境质量关系的实证检验.中国人口·资源与环境, 2006, 16(2):46-50
[33]拜琦瑞,杨开忠.中国经济增长与环境污染演进关系实证研究.经济问题探索, 2008, (3):6-10
[34]赵细康,李建民,王金营等.环境库兹涅茨曲线及在中国的检验.南开经济研究, 2005, (3):48-54
[35]陈腊娇,冯利华,徐璐.浙江省废水排放增长的EKC曲线特征分析.城市环境与城市生态, 2006, 19(4):14-22
[36]王西琴,李芬.天津市经济增长与环境污染水平关系.地理研究, 2005,24(6): 836-841
[37] ]蒋妮姗,李新.苏州市经济发展与环境污染耦合关系的实证研究.环境科学与管理, 2007, 32(3):112-115
[38]刘坤,刘贤赵,常文静.烟台市经济增长与环境污染关系实证研究. 2007, 27(11): 1930-1937
[39]苏伟,刘景双.吉林省经济增长与环境污染关系研究.干旱区资源与环境, 2007, 21(2):37-41
[40]曲福田,赵海霞,朱德明等.江苏省环境污染及影响因素区域差异比较研究.长江流域资源与环境, 2006, 15(1):86-91
[41]王彦彭.中部六省环境污染与经济增长关系实证分析.生态经济, 2008, (8): 84-88
[42]任春艳,吴殿延,董锁成.西北地区城市化对城市气候环境的影响.地理研究, 2006, 25(2):233-241
[43]易丹辉.数据与EViews应用.中国统计出版社, 2002, 114-140
[44]孙敬水,马淑琴.计量经济学.清华大学出版社, 2004, 9-22