济南炼化润滑油基础油质量升级项目可行性研究
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摘要
可行性研究是石油工业建设项目科学决策的重要依据,是项目前期阶段工作的核心。我国炼油工业近几年来采取的是以改扩建为主的发展路线,通过对现有设施的改造和扩建,使企业消除瓶颈,提升我国石化行业竞争力。由于改扩建项目在已有基础条件上进行,具有一定特殊性,需要对企业现状进行认真分析研究,选择符合企业实际和发展方向的技术方案。因此重视改扩建项目的特点,作好项目前期论证和研究,是避免或减少投资决策失误的关键。
本文依据可行性研究的理论和研究方法,就特定的项目—中国石油化工股份有限公司济南分公司润滑油基础油质量升级项目进行前期论证。论文首先进行润滑油基础油产品的市场分析和市场预测,说明项目的必要性；然后开展项目生产规模、技术方案、配套工程、公用工程、能耗分析等技术论证等工作,并对项目涉及的环境问题进行论证；之后,利用财务评价的基本理论和评价体系,估算项目投资、效益和费用,进行财务指标评价与分析,并通过不确定分析研究项目财务风险,找出影响经济效益的敏感性因素。利用财务评价结果来论证项目的经济可行性,进行方案比选；最后,根据可行性研究过程和结果,提出润滑油基础油质量升级项目可行的结论,为项目的决策提供依据,为其他炼油改造项目在项目论证前期阶段可行性研究及评价提供参考。
The project feasibility study is important for investing project in petroleum industry. In recently years, the mainly developmental step adopt by refinery in china is to implement technical improvement. By this way, the problem of this refinery could be solved and competition could be enhanced. The revamped project has its own characters because the condition is different from the new project. It is necessary that the status of enterprise should be analyzed carefully in order to find the suitable layout.
Established under the guide of theory and method of the project feasibility study, the paper mainly demonstrated the feasibility on quality improvement project of lubricating oil distillate in Jinan branch of SINOPEC. First, the paper analyzed the market demand and trend for lubricating oil product. Second, other technical analyses have been done as follows:production scale, technical methods, auxiliary facility, utility plant and energy consuming analysis. Third, environment issue involved project have also been discussed. Fourth, the investment, benefit and cost of the project are evaluated by means of the basic theory and system in economic evaluation, so financial indexes could be obtained, also break—even point analysis and sensitivity analysis are made to find the sensitive factors. The result of economic evaluation can be used to compare different layout to get the better one. At last, based on feasibility study, we can draw a conclusion that the project is feasible, which provides the basis for the decision-making. At the same time, it also provides a referential method for the technical and economic evaluation of the other domestic revamping refinery projects.
本文依据可行性研究的理论和研究方法,就特定的项目—中国石油化工股份有限公司济南分公司润滑油基础油质量升级项目进行前期论证。论文首先进行润滑油基础油产品的市场分析和市场预测,说明项目的必要性；然后开展项目生产规模、技术方案、配套工程、公用工程、能耗分析等技术论证等工作,并对项目涉及的环境问题进行论证；之后,利用财务评价的基本理论和评价体系,估算项目投资、效益和费用,进行财务指标评价与分析,并通过不确定分析研究项目财务风险,找出影响经济效益的敏感性因素。利用财务评价结果来论证项目的经济可行性,进行方案比选；最后,根据可行性研究过程和结果,提出润滑油基础油质量升级项目可行的结论,为项目的决策提供依据,为其他炼油改造项目在项目论证前期阶段可行性研究及评价提供参考。
The project feasibility study is important for investing project in petroleum industry. In recently years, the mainly developmental step adopt by refinery in china is to implement technical improvement. By this way, the problem of this refinery could be solved and competition could be enhanced. The revamped project has its own characters because the condition is different from the new project. It is necessary that the status of enterprise should be analyzed carefully in order to find the suitable layout.
Established under the guide of theory and method of the project feasibility study, the paper mainly demonstrated the feasibility on quality improvement project of lubricating oil distillate in Jinan branch of SINOPEC. First, the paper analyzed the market demand and trend for lubricating oil product. Second, other technical analyses have been done as follows:production scale, technical methods, auxiliary facility, utility plant and energy consuming analysis. Third, environment issue involved project have also been discussed. Fourth, the investment, benefit and cost of the project are evaluated by means of the basic theory and system in economic evaluation, so financial indexes could be obtained, also break—even point analysis and sensitivity analysis are made to find the sensitive factors. The result of economic evaluation can be used to compare different layout to get the better one. At last, based on feasibility study, we can draw a conclusion that the project is feasible, which provides the basis for the decision-making. At the same time, it also provides a referential method for the technical and economic evaluation of the other domestic revamping refinery projects.
引文
[1]万威武主编,可行性研究与项目评价,西安：西安交通大学出版社,2008,3
[2]W. Behrens P.M.Hawranek, Manual for the preparation of Industrial Feasibility Studies.
[3]孔径远、王储、张福琴、林量仁,2009年中国石油炼制技术大会论文集,北京,中国石化出版社,2009年,P46-50
[4]2010年润滑油质量技术交流材料,石油化工科学研究院
[5]全国注册咨询工程师(投资)资格考试参考教材编写委员会,项目决策分析与评价,北京：中国计划出版社,2007.11
[6]王光华主编,化工技术经济学,北京,科学出版社,2007
[7]国家发展委员会,建设部,建设项目经济评价方法与参数,第三版,北京：中国计划出版社,2006年
[8]才建平主编,中文版Excel 2003财务管理高效办公完全案例精讲,上海：上海科学普及出版社,2007.3
[9]罗礼,基于Excel的新设法人项目财务评价系统的开发研究,硕士学位论文,湖南：长沙理工大学,2009
[10]中国石化咨询公司,石油化工项目可行性研究报告编制规定,北京,2005
[11]刘道平,巴陵石化2万吨/年SEBS扩能改造项目可行性研究,硕士学位论文,北京：北京化工大学,2009
[12]王克强主编,工程经济学,上海：上海财经大学出版社,2004.3
[13]文彬,炼油装置中间产品定价方式探讨,石油化工技术与经济,第24卷第4期,2008.8,P32-34
[14]路立敏、钟燕,巧用Excel进行项目动态评价指标计算,中国管理信息化,第11卷第5期,2008.3,P53-54
[15]翟进步、龚江云,Excel固定资产投资项目财务决策模型的构建,财会通讯.综合版第6期,2007,P44-47
[16]李慧敏,用Excel计算简单的经济评价和财务评价,财经与会计,P141-142
[2]W. Behrens P.M.Hawranek, Manual for the preparation of Industrial Feasibility Studies.
[3]孔径远、王储、张福琴、林量仁,2009年中国石油炼制技术大会论文集,北京,中国石化出版社,2009年,P46-50
[4]2010年润滑油质量技术交流材料,石油化工科学研究院
[5]全国注册咨询工程师(投资)资格考试参考教材编写委员会,项目决策分析与评价,北京：中国计划出版社,2007.11
[6]王光华主编,化工技术经济学,北京,科学出版社,2007
[7]国家发展委员会,建设部,建设项目经济评价方法与参数,第三版,北京：中国计划出版社,2006年
[8]才建平主编,中文版Excel 2003财务管理高效办公完全案例精讲,上海：上海科学普及出版社,2007.3
[9]罗礼,基于Excel的新设法人项目财务评价系统的开发研究,硕士学位论文,湖南：长沙理工大学,2009
[10]中国石化咨询公司,石油化工项目可行性研究报告编制规定,北京,2005
[11]刘道平,巴陵石化2万吨/年SEBS扩能改造项目可行性研究,硕士学位论文,北京：北京化工大学,2009
[12]王克强主编,工程经济学,上海：上海财经大学出版社,2004.3
[13]文彬,炼油装置中间产品定价方式探讨,石油化工技术与经济,第24卷第4期,2008.8,P32-34
[14]路立敏、钟燕,巧用Excel进行项目动态评价指标计算,中国管理信息化,第11卷第5期,2008.3,P53-54
[15]翟进步、龚江云,Excel固定资产投资项目财务决策模型的构建,财会通讯.综合版第6期,2007,P44-47
[16]李慧敏,用Excel计算简单的经济评价和财务评价,财经与会计,P141-142