锰资源经济利用与安全保障评价体系研究
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摘要
矿产资源的可持续开发利用及资源安全是目前人类社会普遍关注的热点问题之一。目前我国经济飞速发展,对矿产资源需求越来越大,促使了我国锰矿资源开发利用行业的迅速发展。各地锰矿选矿厂如雨后春笋般出现,锰矿产量年年递增,在一定程度上缓解了我国对进口锰矿的需求压力。但由于缺乏监督和有效管理,许多锰矿公司在采、选、冶过程中只顾眼前利益,不注重科技创新,不注重环保问题,出现了诸如行业科技水平低、资源浪费大、单位能源消耗高、环境污染严重等一系列问题。使我国锰矿资源开发利用状况日益恶化,锰矿资源开发利用可持续性发展面临严峻考验。因此,正确把握当前我国锰矿资源开发利用现状,加强对我国锰矿资源可持续性开发利用评价体系研究。有针对性地采取相应措施,扬长补短,这对我国经济和社会的可持续发展具有重大意义。
本文回顾了矿产资源的可持续开发利用及资源安全的历史、现状和存在的问题,对我国矿业权评估管理和国内外矿业权评估的技术方法进行了分析和概述。运用灰色系统理论和层次分析法(AHP)研究了中国锰矿资源的可持续利用和安全保障问题,取得了以下主要研究成果：
1、经过实际数据计算和精度检验,验证了灰色预测模型的有效性。通过对影响我国钢铁产量的多种因素的灰色关联度分析表明：影响我国钢铁产量的两大主要因素是人口增长和经济发展,影响因素重要程度依次为人均GDP、建筑业产值等。
通过灰色预测模型计算,在GM(1,1)模型下,预测了我国今后若干年钢铁产量,并根据锰资源消耗量与钢铁产量的关联关系,预测了我国今后若干年锰矿石需求量。
2、采用层次分析法(AHP)对我国锰矿资源的开发利用状况和安全保障程度进行了评价。评价结果为我国锰矿资源可持续开发利用能力处于可持续发展较弱状态；安全保障能力处于不安全的状态。形势比较严峻。
通过分析认为我国锰矿资源开发利用的优势之处在于巨大的市场需求,而锰矿资源储备系数小、锰矿资源利用效率低是我国锰业发展急待解决的问题。我国锰矿资源安全保障方面主要问题在于行业可持续发展、对环境的影响、可持续利用能力水平低。此外,进口集中度、运输通道可靠性、锰矿进口量的比重、国际市场可得性等问题也比较严重。
3、研究表明我国锰资源的可持续利用和安全水平还处于不容乐观的水平。最后本文对影响我国锰业发展比较重要的几个问题：资源可持续利用、环境影响及其治理、行业竞争力及后劲问题、利用海外资源问题做了重点解析和评论,并提出了一些建议和意见。
Sustainable utilization of mineral resources and resource security is one of the common concern of human society. The rapid development of the economy in China promoted growing demand for mineral resources and utilization of manganese resources. Emergence of numerous mill run plants meet the manganese ore demand of Chinese industry to some extent. However, lacking of supervision and effective management, many manganese ore mill run plants focused on the immediate economy benefit instead of paying attention to scientific and technological innovation and environmental protection issues. Thus problems such as resources waste and serious environmental pollution arouse. Therefore, evaluation system research on development and utilization of manganese resources in China is in need for further societal and economic development.
In the paper, the development history, realistic situation and existed problem etc. of sustainable utilization of mineral resources and resource security were dissertated. Also the technical methods in domestic and foreign for sustainable utilization of mineral resources and resource security were analyzed and summarized. Grey system theory and analytic hierarchy process were used to evaluate the sustainable utilization and resource security conditions of manganese resources in China. The key findings of the paper are following:
l.The validity of the model is verified by the way of calculation and precision-test based on true data. Grey relational analysis of variety of factors which impact on China's steel output showed that:population growth and economic development are the two main factors impact on China's steel output, the per capita GDP and the construction industry output are great factors impact on China's steel output.
Calculated by GM (1,1) gray prediction model, China's steel output in coming several years were predicted, then China's demand for manganese resources in coming several years were predicted based on relationship of consumption of manganese resources and steel output.
2.The situation of sustainable utilization of mineral resources and resource security were evaluated by using analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Result showed, Capacity of the sustainable development remain in weak state; Safety and security capabilities remain in unsafe state. The situation is fairly severe.
The analysts believe that the advantages of Chinese manganese industry is the huge market demand, while low level of manganese resources reserve and manganese resource utilization are pressing problem for Chinese manganese industry. The main problems of safety and security situation are sustainable development of industry, the environment problem, low capacity of sustainable usage. However, the high level of Import concentration, the reliability of transport channel, the high proportion of Import manganese ore, the availability of international market and some other issues are serious too.
3. The study showed that the capacity for manganese sustainable utilization and resource security remained in fairly severe conditions in China. Finally, several important issues for Chinese manganese industry development were discussed and commented, they were sustainable utilization of resource、environmental pollution and environmental management、sustainable competitiveness of industry and utilization of resources overseas, and some suggestions were put forward.
本文回顾了矿产资源的可持续开发利用及资源安全的历史、现状和存在的问题,对我国矿业权评估管理和国内外矿业权评估的技术方法进行了分析和概述。运用灰色系统理论和层次分析法(AHP)研究了中国锰矿资源的可持续利用和安全保障问题,取得了以下主要研究成果：
1、经过实际数据计算和精度检验,验证了灰色预测模型的有效性。通过对影响我国钢铁产量的多种因素的灰色关联度分析表明：影响我国钢铁产量的两大主要因素是人口增长和经济发展,影响因素重要程度依次为人均GDP、建筑业产值等。
通过灰色预测模型计算,在GM(1,1)模型下,预测了我国今后若干年钢铁产量,并根据锰资源消耗量与钢铁产量的关联关系,预测了我国今后若干年锰矿石需求量。
2、采用层次分析法(AHP)对我国锰矿资源的开发利用状况和安全保障程度进行了评价。评价结果为我国锰矿资源可持续开发利用能力处于可持续发展较弱状态；安全保障能力处于不安全的状态。形势比较严峻。
通过分析认为我国锰矿资源开发利用的优势之处在于巨大的市场需求,而锰矿资源储备系数小、锰矿资源利用效率低是我国锰业发展急待解决的问题。我国锰矿资源安全保障方面主要问题在于行业可持续发展、对环境的影响、可持续利用能力水平低。此外,进口集中度、运输通道可靠性、锰矿进口量的比重、国际市场可得性等问题也比较严重。
3、研究表明我国锰资源的可持续利用和安全水平还处于不容乐观的水平。最后本文对影响我国锰业发展比较重要的几个问题：资源可持续利用、环境影响及其治理、行业竞争力及后劲问题、利用海外资源问题做了重点解析和评论,并提出了一些建议和意见。
Sustainable utilization of mineral resources and resource security is one of the common concern of human society. The rapid development of the economy in China promoted growing demand for mineral resources and utilization of manganese resources. Emergence of numerous mill run plants meet the manganese ore demand of Chinese industry to some extent. However, lacking of supervision and effective management, many manganese ore mill run plants focused on the immediate economy benefit instead of paying attention to scientific and technological innovation and environmental protection issues. Thus problems such as resources waste and serious environmental pollution arouse. Therefore, evaluation system research on development and utilization of manganese resources in China is in need for further societal and economic development.
In the paper, the development history, realistic situation and existed problem etc. of sustainable utilization of mineral resources and resource security were dissertated. Also the technical methods in domestic and foreign for sustainable utilization of mineral resources and resource security were analyzed and summarized. Grey system theory and analytic hierarchy process were used to evaluate the sustainable utilization and resource security conditions of manganese resources in China. The key findings of the paper are following:
l.The validity of the model is verified by the way of calculation and precision-test based on true data. Grey relational analysis of variety of factors which impact on China's steel output showed that:population growth and economic development are the two main factors impact on China's steel output, the per capita GDP and the construction industry output are great factors impact on China's steel output.
Calculated by GM (1,1) gray prediction model, China's steel output in coming several years were predicted, then China's demand for manganese resources in coming several years were predicted based on relationship of consumption of manganese resources and steel output.
2.The situation of sustainable utilization of mineral resources and resource security were evaluated by using analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Result showed, Capacity of the sustainable development remain in weak state; Safety and security capabilities remain in unsafe state. The situation is fairly severe.
The analysts believe that the advantages of Chinese manganese industry is the huge market demand, while low level of manganese resources reserve and manganese resource utilization are pressing problem for Chinese manganese industry. The main problems of safety and security situation are sustainable development of industry, the environment problem, low capacity of sustainable usage. However, the high level of Import concentration, the reliability of transport channel, the high proportion of Import manganese ore, the availability of international market and some other issues are serious too.
3. The study showed that the capacity for manganese sustainable utilization and resource security remained in fairly severe conditions in China. Finally, several important issues for Chinese manganese industry development were discussed and commented, they were sustainable utilization of resource、environmental pollution and environmental management、sustainable competitiveness of industry and utilization of resources overseas, and some suggestions were put forward.
引文
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