中国对外直接投资的产业结构调整效应研究
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摘要
对外直接投资是中国“走出去”战略的重要组成部分,虽然起步较晚,但发展迅速。中国已经成为重要的对外投资国,其独特的经济特征使得它还会在未来的若干年中持续进行对外直接投资。对外直接投资会对母国的经济产生重要影响,本文集中分析其产业结构调整效应,主要目的是考察中国对外直接投资对于产业结构调整的影响机制和实际效应,并为中国更好地开展对外直接投资提出相关政策建议。本文的研究工作主要从以下五个方面展开。
首先,从动因和效应两个角度对国内外的理论和实证研究进行了综述,指出了现有研究的借鉴意义和不足,作为下文研究工作的理论基础。
其次,基于时间序列和横截面数据,考察了中国对外直接投资的发展历史,并从投资规模、行业、区域、主体、方式等角度对其现状和特征进行了分析。在此基础上,运用灰色系统原理确定了影响中国对外直接投资规模的主要变量,并对未来五年的直接投资规模进行了预测,预测结果表明中国的对外直接投资呈现出强劲的增长态势,也进一步说明了本研究的意义。
第三,构建了一个基于投资动机的基本理论框架,分析了中国对外直接投资对于产业结构调整的影响机制,并对ODI造成产业空心化的机理进行了剖析。分析结果表明市场寻求型、自然资源寻求型、技术寻求型和战略资产寻求型的对外直接投资都可以通过不同的渠道提升中国的产业结构,而且目前也不必担心产业的空心化问题,意味着可以将对外直接投资作为提升母国产业结构的一种有效途径。
第四,实证分析了中国对外直接投资对于产业结构调整的效应和影响途径。先对中国对外直接投资和产业结构调整之间的关系进行了实证研究,结果表明对外直接投资促进了中国产业结构的优化升级;接着选取合适的传导变量,对中国对外直接投资促进产业结构优化的路径进行了实证研究,结果显示:对外直接投资主要通过出口创造效应、反向技术外溢效应和获取自然资源三个渠道提升了其产业结构。
最后,基于实证分析的结果,本研究指出应当在立足于自身经济发展的基础上,重视投资产业和区位的选择,从而增强对外直接投资对于中国产业结构优化的促进作用。
As a main part of Chinese going out strategy, outward direct investment (ODI) is growing rapidly though starting late. China has become a significant source of direct investment, whose unique economic characteristics will spur it to invest overseas continuously in the future. ODI certainly will affect the economy of the home country. This study is focused on its effects on industrial structure adjustment, which mainly intends to analyze the influencing mechanism and actual effects of Chinese ODI on its industrial structure adjustment, and put forward some suggestions for China to develop ODI better. The research mostly spreads from the next five aspects.
Firstly, foreign and domestic theoretical and empirical studies are summarized including the incentives and effects of ODI, their reference meaning and deficiency are also pointed out, which are served as the theoretical basis of the following studies.
Secondly, based on time serial and cross section data, the history of Chinese ODI is studied; the actuality and characteristics are also analyzed from the angle of investing scale, industry, location, main body, and mode. According to the principle of gray incidence and gray clustering, the main variables which influence the size of Chinese ODI are studied. A forecast is then made on the scale of outward investment in the next five years based on the regression result and the metabolic GM (1, 1) model, which indicates the strong increasing tendency of Chinese ODI and the meaning of this research.
Thirdly, a basic theoretical frame is set up based on Chinese typical investing motivation, which is used to analyze the influencing mechanism of Chinese ODI on its industrial structure adjustment. The mechanism of ODI leading to industry hollowing-out is also examined. The results show that all four kinds of ODI, i.e. market seeking, natural resources seeking, technology seeking, and strategic assets seeking ODI, can step up the industrial structure of the home country in different ways, and the hollowing-out problem is unnecessarily to be worried about at present, which implies that ODI can act as an effective way to upgrade the industrial structure of the investing country.
Fourthly, two empirical studies are carried out to examine the effects and influencing routes of Chinese ODI on its industrial structure adjustment. The first empirical study is done on the relationship between Chinese ODI and the industrial structure adjustment, which shows that ODI promotes the optimization of the industrial structure. Then through appropriate conducting variables, the second empirical study is executed to analyze the paths of ODI upgrading the industrial structure, which shows that ODI influences Chinese industrial structure mainly through export creation, reverse technology spillover, and capturing natural resources.
Finally, bases on the empirical results, it is pointed out that importance should be attached to industry and location choice established in China’s economic development of itself, so as to enhance the promoting effect of ODI on its industrial structure optimization.
首先,从动因和效应两个角度对国内外的理论和实证研究进行了综述,指出了现有研究的借鉴意义和不足,作为下文研究工作的理论基础。
其次,基于时间序列和横截面数据,考察了中国对外直接投资的发展历史,并从投资规模、行业、区域、主体、方式等角度对其现状和特征进行了分析。在此基础上,运用灰色系统原理确定了影响中国对外直接投资规模的主要变量,并对未来五年的直接投资规模进行了预测,预测结果表明中国的对外直接投资呈现出强劲的增长态势,也进一步说明了本研究的意义。
第三,构建了一个基于投资动机的基本理论框架,分析了中国对外直接投资对于产业结构调整的影响机制,并对ODI造成产业空心化的机理进行了剖析。分析结果表明市场寻求型、自然资源寻求型、技术寻求型和战略资产寻求型的对外直接投资都可以通过不同的渠道提升中国的产业结构,而且目前也不必担心产业的空心化问题,意味着可以将对外直接投资作为提升母国产业结构的一种有效途径。
第四,实证分析了中国对外直接投资对于产业结构调整的效应和影响途径。先对中国对外直接投资和产业结构调整之间的关系进行了实证研究,结果表明对外直接投资促进了中国产业结构的优化升级;接着选取合适的传导变量,对中国对外直接投资促进产业结构优化的路径进行了实证研究,结果显示:对外直接投资主要通过出口创造效应、反向技术外溢效应和获取自然资源三个渠道提升了其产业结构。
最后,基于实证分析的结果,本研究指出应当在立足于自身经济发展的基础上,重视投资产业和区位的选择,从而增强对外直接投资对于中国产业结构优化的促进作用。
As a main part of Chinese going out strategy, outward direct investment (ODI) is growing rapidly though starting late. China has become a significant source of direct investment, whose unique economic characteristics will spur it to invest overseas continuously in the future. ODI certainly will affect the economy of the home country. This study is focused on its effects on industrial structure adjustment, which mainly intends to analyze the influencing mechanism and actual effects of Chinese ODI on its industrial structure adjustment, and put forward some suggestions for China to develop ODI better. The research mostly spreads from the next five aspects.
Firstly, foreign and domestic theoretical and empirical studies are summarized including the incentives and effects of ODI, their reference meaning and deficiency are also pointed out, which are served as the theoretical basis of the following studies.
Secondly, based on time serial and cross section data, the history of Chinese ODI is studied; the actuality and characteristics are also analyzed from the angle of investing scale, industry, location, main body, and mode. According to the principle of gray incidence and gray clustering, the main variables which influence the size of Chinese ODI are studied. A forecast is then made on the scale of outward investment in the next five years based on the regression result and the metabolic GM (1, 1) model, which indicates the strong increasing tendency of Chinese ODI and the meaning of this research.
Thirdly, a basic theoretical frame is set up based on Chinese typical investing motivation, which is used to analyze the influencing mechanism of Chinese ODI on its industrial structure adjustment. The mechanism of ODI leading to industry hollowing-out is also examined. The results show that all four kinds of ODI, i.e. market seeking, natural resources seeking, technology seeking, and strategic assets seeking ODI, can step up the industrial structure of the home country in different ways, and the hollowing-out problem is unnecessarily to be worried about at present, which implies that ODI can act as an effective way to upgrade the industrial structure of the investing country.
Fourthly, two empirical studies are carried out to examine the effects and influencing routes of Chinese ODI on its industrial structure adjustment. The first empirical study is done on the relationship between Chinese ODI and the industrial structure adjustment, which shows that ODI promotes the optimization of the industrial structure. Then through appropriate conducting variables, the second empirical study is executed to analyze the paths of ODI upgrading the industrial structure, which shows that ODI influences Chinese industrial structure mainly through export creation, reverse technology spillover, and capturing natural resources.
Finally, bases on the empirical results, it is pointed out that importance should be attached to industry and location choice established in China’s economic development of itself, so as to enhance the promoting effect of ODI on its industrial structure optimization.
引文
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