中国进口贸易、技术扩散与技术进步
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摘要
由于发展中国家技术基础和研发能力相对薄弱,因此通过技术扩散从先进国家获得技术知识正成为他们技术进步的重要源泉。进口贸易作为技术扩散的主要渠道之一,对于创新能力不足而贸易规模巨大的中国尤其值得重视。本文旨在研究改革开放以来,基于进口贸易的国际技术扩散对中国的实际效果及其影响因素,据此探索中国应该如何在政策方面加以引导和改进。
本文先从理论上讨论技术差异、国际贸易和技术扩散之间的内在逻辑关系,并探讨了基于进口贸易途径的国际技术扩散机制和影响因素,从而建立了一个关于进口贸易、技术扩散与发展中国家技术进步的基本分析框架,为之后的实证研究提供了理论基石。
评价国际技术扩散对于进口国国内技术进步的重要性、进而作出鼓励或者限制的政策建议,必须以该国当时的技术发展阶段为背景进行研究。因此本文接下来从产业技术基础、R&D投入水平和科技产出水平等方面考察了中国目前所处的技术发展阶段,然后利用中国的数据实证检验了进口贸易技术扩散对中国技术进步和经济增长的作用,以及相关因素对于技术进步效果的影响。通过上述分析,我们得出了一些有意义的结论:(1)进口贸易总体上通过国际技术扩散对中国技术进步有显著而积极的影响。(2)通过改变进口贸易的结构可以促进国际技术扩散效应的增加。(3)加快人力资本培育是技术扩散吸收的关键。从理论上分析,就中国现阶段的国内技术背景而言,国外研发贡献应该是中国技术进步的主要来源,但是经验结果却正好相反,这很大程度上是由于中国吸收能力的低下阻碍了国际技术的吸收。而通过人力资本和国内研发分别作为吸收变量的系数比较,发现目前人力资本水平低下对中国技术扩散吸收的阻碍更大。(4)国内研发对于中国技术进步非常重要。它不仅是技术创新的直接源泉,而且是提高吸收能力、提升国际技术扩散效果的关键因素。无论是出于提高技术吸收能力的考虑,还是出于技术吸收能力不足时国内研发贡献较大的考虑,加强国内研发投入都是促进技术进步的关键。(5)由于进口贸易对技术进步的贡献大部分来自知识的扩散,因此就不得不考虑知识产权保护的影响。知识产权保护的强弱直接决定了技术扩散能在多大范围和程度上发生。从机制分析中我们看出,知识产权保护的加强对进口贸易技术扩散有着正反两方面的影响,其综合结果如何随国家和国内技术背景不同而变化。从经验分析的结论看出,不管具体的作用机制如何,知识产权保护的加强在总体上对中国技术进步有显著而积极的影响。
Because of the weak base of technology and the shortage in R&D capability, the improvement of technology level in developing countries mainly comes from the international technology diffusion from developed countries. As one of the main channels of technology diffusion, import is very important to China who is short in innovation and imports much. This dissertation focuses on the effect of import-oriented international technology diffusion in China and explores how to induce and improve it by making proper policy.
Firstly, we discuss the inherent logical relation in technology difference, international trade and technology diffusion. Then we analyze the mechanism of international technology diffusion in the channel of import and some factors that affect. Through these, we build a basic analysis frame of import, technology and the technology progress in developing countries to provide theory basis to the later empirical study.
We must appraise the international technology diffusion and make suggestion to promote it or restrict it in the background of technology development phase of that country. So, at first, we study on the technology development phase of China through the respect of industry technology base, R&D input and output capability. Then, we carry on the empirical study of China. On the basis of the above research, we find that: (1) the effect of import through technology diffusion on China’s TFP is positive and significant. (2)We may change the structure of China’s import to promote the effect of international technology diffusion. (3)It is essential for China to step on the juice of human capital cultivating. Foreign R&D should have mattered more than the domestic R&D in the technology progress of China theoretically. But we see an opposite result in empirical study. It is mainly because that China is lack of capability to absorb the technology diffusion. We use human capital and domestic R&D as variable that measure the absorptive capability, and compare the results. We find that the low human capital level baffle the absorption of technology diffusion more. (4)The domestic R&D activities are very important. They are not only the immediate sources of domestic innovations, but also the essential factor of promoting the capability to absorb and use the technology diffusion. Now that China is lack of the absorptive capability, domestic R&D matters much to the technology progress of China. (5)Because most contribution of import to technology progress comes from the knowledge diffusion, it is impossible to ignore the affection of intellectual property right protection. The condition of intellectual property right protection immediately determines the possible extension and degree of technology diffusion. From mechanism analysis, we can see that the strong intellectual property right protection will affect the import-oriented technology diffusion in two opposite ways. The total effect changes from countries and domestic technology background. From the empirical study we can see that the effect of strengthening intellectual property right protection on China’s TFP is positive and significant.
本文先从理论上讨论技术差异、国际贸易和技术扩散之间的内在逻辑关系,并探讨了基于进口贸易途径的国际技术扩散机制和影响因素,从而建立了一个关于进口贸易、技术扩散与发展中国家技术进步的基本分析框架,为之后的实证研究提供了理论基石。
评价国际技术扩散对于进口国国内技术进步的重要性、进而作出鼓励或者限制的政策建议,必须以该国当时的技术发展阶段为背景进行研究。因此本文接下来从产业技术基础、R&D投入水平和科技产出水平等方面考察了中国目前所处的技术发展阶段,然后利用中国的数据实证检验了进口贸易技术扩散对中国技术进步和经济增长的作用,以及相关因素对于技术进步效果的影响。通过上述分析,我们得出了一些有意义的结论:(1)进口贸易总体上通过国际技术扩散对中国技术进步有显著而积极的影响。(2)通过改变进口贸易的结构可以促进国际技术扩散效应的增加。(3)加快人力资本培育是技术扩散吸收的关键。从理论上分析,就中国现阶段的国内技术背景而言,国外研发贡献应该是中国技术进步的主要来源,但是经验结果却正好相反,这很大程度上是由于中国吸收能力的低下阻碍了国际技术的吸收。而通过人力资本和国内研发分别作为吸收变量的系数比较,发现目前人力资本水平低下对中国技术扩散吸收的阻碍更大。(4)国内研发对于中国技术进步非常重要。它不仅是技术创新的直接源泉,而且是提高吸收能力、提升国际技术扩散效果的关键因素。无论是出于提高技术吸收能力的考虑,还是出于技术吸收能力不足时国内研发贡献较大的考虑,加强国内研发投入都是促进技术进步的关键。(5)由于进口贸易对技术进步的贡献大部分来自知识的扩散,因此就不得不考虑知识产权保护的影响。知识产权保护的强弱直接决定了技术扩散能在多大范围和程度上发生。从机制分析中我们看出,知识产权保护的加强对进口贸易技术扩散有着正反两方面的影响,其综合结果如何随国家和国内技术背景不同而变化。从经验分析的结论看出,不管具体的作用机制如何,知识产权保护的加强在总体上对中国技术进步有显著而积极的影响。
Because of the weak base of technology and the shortage in R&D capability, the improvement of technology level in developing countries mainly comes from the international technology diffusion from developed countries. As one of the main channels of technology diffusion, import is very important to China who is short in innovation and imports much. This dissertation focuses on the effect of import-oriented international technology diffusion in China and explores how to induce and improve it by making proper policy.
Firstly, we discuss the inherent logical relation in technology difference, international trade and technology diffusion. Then we analyze the mechanism of international technology diffusion in the channel of import and some factors that affect. Through these, we build a basic analysis frame of import, technology and the technology progress in developing countries to provide theory basis to the later empirical study.
We must appraise the international technology diffusion and make suggestion to promote it or restrict it in the background of technology development phase of that country. So, at first, we study on the technology development phase of China through the respect of industry technology base, R&D input and output capability. Then, we carry on the empirical study of China. On the basis of the above research, we find that: (1) the effect of import through technology diffusion on China’s TFP is positive and significant. (2)We may change the structure of China’s import to promote the effect of international technology diffusion. (3)It is essential for China to step on the juice of human capital cultivating. Foreign R&D should have mattered more than the domestic R&D in the technology progress of China theoretically. But we see an opposite result in empirical study. It is mainly because that China is lack of capability to absorb the technology diffusion. We use human capital and domestic R&D as variable that measure the absorptive capability, and compare the results. We find that the low human capital level baffle the absorption of technology diffusion more. (4)The domestic R&D activities are very important. They are not only the immediate sources of domestic innovations, but also the essential factor of promoting the capability to absorb and use the technology diffusion. Now that China is lack of the absorptive capability, domestic R&D matters much to the technology progress of China. (5)Because most contribution of import to technology progress comes from the knowledge diffusion, it is impossible to ignore the affection of intellectual property right protection. The condition of intellectual property right protection immediately determines the possible extension and degree of technology diffusion. From mechanism analysis, we can see that the strong intellectual property right protection will affect the import-oriented technology diffusion in two opposite ways. The total effect changes from countries and domestic technology background. From the empirical study we can see that the effect of strengthening intellectual property right protection on China’s TFP is positive and significant.
引文
2参见查理·辛格,《技术史》,王平(译),成都科技出版社,1995年:第六卷。
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