技术创新与产业系统的自组织演化及演化混沌
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摘要
本文基于自组织理论与方法和演化经济学理论，通过建立非线性动力学数学模型，对技术创新与产业系统自组织演化机制、过程及演化混沌问题进行了探讨，主要研究内容和成果有以下几点。
1、通过对创新生产者和用户交互作用下学习、搜寻与选择行为的讨论，构建了一种新的技术创新过程的自组织演化模型，阐明了技术创新过程是存在分岔和突变行为的自组织进化过程，创新成熟度存在多种状态，创新过程可以在多种状态之间重复变换，创新的产生过程和扩散过程应该是同一的，创新过程不是线性的、确定性的发展过程，也不仅仅是随机演化的过程，而是自组织过程。
2、借助于逻辑斯谛方程，对产业系统整体演化过程的特征进行了分析，对演化模型的混沌进行了探讨，实证分析表明，本文使用的逻辑斯谛方程能够很好描述我国若干产业系统的整体演化过程，我国能源产业系统存在混沌经济现象，产业系统的演化行为具有复杂性，它也是一种自组织过程。
3、构建了由2个竞争性产业组成的相互竞争影响力不相等情况下的产业经济系统的演化模型和由2个协作性产业且协作形式又分为多种情况的产业经济系统的演化模型。通过对模型的分析讨论，说明了在竞争与协作条件下产业经济系统结构的演化是一种自组织过程，是原有结构失稳和新的有序结构建立的过程。
4、在产业系统基本演化方程中，通过考虑技术创新因素影响参数的变化，阐明了技术创新对产业系统演化行为的影响作用；运用一个动态随机模型，描述了创新改变产业系统中原有技术扩散和竞争均衡的过程； 分析总结了技术创新与产业系统协同演化的机制与过程，并在此基础上，建立和研究了技术创新积累效应混沌模型，并对模型混沌的政策条件进行了模拟分析，指出创新政策力对产业系统技术创新积累效应的动态行为能够产生重要影响，可以使系统产生混沌的行为。
This article is mainly about the problems of self-organization evolution and evolutionary chaos in industrial system and innovation processes through setting up nonlinear dynamical model. Our analysis is based on the self-organization theory and method and the evolution economics theory. Our main content and achievement are as follows.
1. By discussing the learning, searching and choice behavior under interaction of the innovation producers and their users, we built a new self-organization model about the innovation processes and illustrated that the innovation processes is a self-organization evolution processes involving bifurcation and catastrophe, that the innovation maturity degree holds many kinds of state, that the innovation processes may vary repeatedly between many states, that the formation and spreading of innovation should belong the same processes, that the innovation is not a linear, determined evolution processes, is not only a processes of stochastic evolution, but a self-organization processes.
2. We analyzed the feature of the whole industry system evolution processes and the chaos of the evolution model through the aid of the Logistic equation. The empirical analysis shows that the Logistic equation can well describe the whole evolution processes of China’s several industrial system, that China’s energy industrial system finds Chaos economic phenomenon, that the evolution behavior of industrial system is complicated and also a self-organization processes.
3. We set up two evolutionary models, one is about the industrial system formed by two competitive industries under unequal competitive influence, the other is about the industrial system formed by two coorperative industries and various coorperation forms are different from each other. By discussing the models, we argued that the structural evolution of industrial economic systems under competitive and cooperative situations is a self-organization course, is the processes of the old structure de-stabilization and the new ordered structure constitution.
4. In the basic evolutionary equation of the industrial system, through considering that the innovation factors influence the change of parameters, we expounded the influence of the innovation to the dynamic behavior of the industrial system; using a dynamic stochastic model, we described how the emergence of innovation altered the processes of old technology spreading and competition balance in the industrial system and changed the market structure of the industrial system; We analyzed and summarized the mechanism and processes of innovation and industrial system cooperative evolution, and based on that, we set up a kind of chaos model about the accumulation effect of innovation, tested the policy condition of the model chaos, and pointed out that, the innovation policy can have important influence on the dynamic behavior of accumulation effect of innovation in the industrial system, and may bring the system chaotic behavior.
1、通过对创新生产者和用户交互作用下学习、搜寻与选择行为的讨论，构建了一种新的技术创新过程的自组织演化模型，阐明了技术创新过程是存在分岔和突变行为的自组织进化过程，创新成熟度存在多种状态，创新过程可以在多种状态之间重复变换，创新的产生过程和扩散过程应该是同一的，创新过程不是线性的、确定性的发展过程，也不仅仅是随机演化的过程，而是自组织过程。
2、借助于逻辑斯谛方程，对产业系统整体演化过程的特征进行了分析，对演化模型的混沌进行了探讨，实证分析表明，本文使用的逻辑斯谛方程能够很好描述我国若干产业系统的整体演化过程，我国能源产业系统存在混沌经济现象，产业系统的演化行为具有复杂性，它也是一种自组织过程。
3、构建了由2个竞争性产业组成的相互竞争影响力不相等情况下的产业经济系统的演化模型和由2个协作性产业且协作形式又分为多种情况的产业经济系统的演化模型。通过对模型的分析讨论，说明了在竞争与协作条件下产业经济系统结构的演化是一种自组织过程，是原有结构失稳和新的有序结构建立的过程。
4、在产业系统基本演化方程中，通过考虑技术创新因素影响参数的变化，阐明了技术创新对产业系统演化行为的影响作用；运用一个动态随机模型，描述了创新改变产业系统中原有技术扩散和竞争均衡的过程； 分析总结了技术创新与产业系统协同演化的机制与过程，并在此基础上，建立和研究了技术创新积累效应混沌模型，并对模型混沌的政策条件进行了模拟分析，指出创新政策力对产业系统技术创新积累效应的动态行为能够产生重要影响，可以使系统产生混沌的行为。
This article is mainly about the problems of self-organization evolution and evolutionary chaos in industrial system and innovation processes through setting up nonlinear dynamical model. Our analysis is based on the self-organization theory and method and the evolution economics theory. Our main content and achievement are as follows.
1. By discussing the learning, searching and choice behavior under interaction of the innovation producers and their users, we built a new self-organization model about the innovation processes and illustrated that the innovation processes is a self-organization evolution processes involving bifurcation and catastrophe, that the innovation maturity degree holds many kinds of state, that the innovation processes may vary repeatedly between many states, that the formation and spreading of innovation should belong the same processes, that the innovation is not a linear, determined evolution processes, is not only a processes of stochastic evolution, but a self-organization processes.
2. We analyzed the feature of the whole industry system evolution processes and the chaos of the evolution model through the aid of the Logistic equation. The empirical analysis shows that the Logistic equation can well describe the whole evolution processes of China’s several industrial system, that China’s energy industrial system finds Chaos economic phenomenon, that the evolution behavior of industrial system is complicated and also a self-organization processes.
3. We set up two evolutionary models, one is about the industrial system formed by two competitive industries under unequal competitive influence, the other is about the industrial system formed by two coorperative industries and various coorperation forms are different from each other. By discussing the models, we argued that the structural evolution of industrial economic systems under competitive and cooperative situations is a self-organization course, is the processes of the old structure de-stabilization and the new ordered structure constitution.
4. In the basic evolutionary equation of the industrial system, through considering that the innovation factors influence the change of parameters, we expounded the influence of the innovation to the dynamic behavior of the industrial system; using a dynamic stochastic model, we described how the emergence of innovation altered the processes of old technology spreading and competition balance in the industrial system and changed the market structure of the industrial system; We analyzed and summarized the mechanism and processes of innovation and industrial system cooperative evolution, and based on that, we set up a kind of chaos model about the accumulation effect of innovation, tested the policy condition of the model chaos, and pointed out that, the innovation policy can have important influence on the dynamic behavior of accumulation effect of innovation in the industrial system, and may bring the system chaotic behavior.
引文
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