生产性公共支出对农村经济增长影响的实证分析
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摘要
农村和农业是国民经济发展的基础和根本,农村和农业的稳步发展对我国的社会稳定和经济发展具有特殊的贡献,所以,政府对农村和农业发展的支持十分必要。政府对农村和农业的公共支出是实现农村和农业发展的重要手段,本文在已有研究的基础上,补充了最新数据,科学系统地就我国政府对农业的公共支出对农村经济的影响进行了研究和评价,尤其对资金使用的经济效率进行了实证研究,通过分析各分项支出的影响效应,来评价各个分项支出的规模是否合理。
本文共分五章内容,第一章为导论,这部分主要阐述了本文的研究背景,研究意义,以及本文的创新之处;第二部分是关于政府公共支出与经济增长研究的文献综述;第三部分为政府对农业的公共支出与农村经济增长的相互作用的机理与模型,通过对宏观经济增长理论的阐述,说明影响农村经济增长的三大主要因素:资本,劳动力和政府的公共投入;第四部分为我国政府对农业的公共支出与农村经济增长关系的实证研究,在本章中,首先从统计学角度对我国近三十年的农业发展概况做纵向分析,然后对我国政府对农业的公共支出与农村经济增长的关系进行实证研究,政府公共支出指标为国家对农业的生产性公共支出,同时对比分析财政用于农业的支出和农村救济费对农业经济增长的影响,以及公共支出对国内生产总值的影响;第五部分针对研究结果,结合我国的实际情况提出相应的政策建议。
本文根据宏观经济学理论,研究了生产性公共支出对农村经济的影响。利用1978年到2007年三十年的数据,建立时间序列模型,运用最小二乘法和广义差分法,选取一些重要的解释变量对我国农村经济增长的影响进行了研究,结果表明:国家应加大对农业的公共支出,特别是国家对农业的生产性公共支出的规模,调整和优化政府对农业的公共支出的结构,同时加大对农业人口转移力度,只有这样,我国的农村和农业才能得到长久的发展。
Rural and agriculture is the foundation of the national economic development, the steady development of agriculture has a special contribution in Chinese social stability and economic development, and therefore, it is necessary for government to support. Government expenditure on agriculture is an important means to achieve agricultural development. Based on existing research and add the latest data, the paper researches and evaluates the impact of government expenditure on agricultural development systematically, particularly conducts an empirical study on the economic efficiency of the use of the funds. By analyzing the impact of the sub-item expenditure, the paper evaluates whether the size of the expenditures is reasonable.
This article is divided into five chapters: the first chapter introduces research background, research significance, as well as the innovations of this thesis. The second part is the Literature Review of the government public expenditure and economic growth, this section mainly summarizes the relevant literature on the domestic government public expenditure and economic growth in chronological order. The third part is the model of the mechanism of the interaction of the government's public spending on agriculture and agricultural economic growth, by theoretical explain modern macro-economic growth theory, the paper describes the three main factors of influencing agriculture economic growth: capital, labor, and government public input. The fourth chapter is empirical research of the relationship of our government's public spending on agriculture and agricultural economic growth. In this chapter, we first longitudinal analyzes nearly a dozen of China's agriculture development in a statistical view, then studies the relationship between our government's public spending on agriculture and agricultural economic growth. The index of state government's public spending which we select is the Productive Public Expenditure (PPE), also we analyze the role of the state financial expenditure for agriculture (Gov) and rural relief costs (RUR) on agriculture contribution to economic growth. The fifth part, combing the study results with actual situation, we put forward the corresponding suggestions for policies in light of government's public spending on agriculture.
According to the classical macroeconomic theory, the paper studies the impact of the Productive Public Expenditure (PPE) to the primary industry. Using data of the year1978 to 2007, the paper establishes time-series model, applying the least square method and the generalized difference method, the paper select the number of suitable explanatory variables to study the factors of the impact on the output of the primary industry. The results showed that: the states should increase the government's expenditure for agriculture, especially the size of the Productive Public Expenditure (PPE), adjust and optimize the structure of the government's expenditure for agriculture and increase the transfer of agricultural population on efforts at the same time, only in this way our country can have long-term agricultural and rural development.
本文共分五章内容,第一章为导论,这部分主要阐述了本文的研究背景,研究意义,以及本文的创新之处;第二部分是关于政府公共支出与经济增长研究的文献综述;第三部分为政府对农业的公共支出与农村经济增长的相互作用的机理与模型,通过对宏观经济增长理论的阐述,说明影响农村经济增长的三大主要因素:资本,劳动力和政府的公共投入;第四部分为我国政府对农业的公共支出与农村经济增长关系的实证研究,在本章中,首先从统计学角度对我国近三十年的农业发展概况做纵向分析,然后对我国政府对农业的公共支出与农村经济增长的关系进行实证研究,政府公共支出指标为国家对农业的生产性公共支出,同时对比分析财政用于农业的支出和农村救济费对农业经济增长的影响,以及公共支出对国内生产总值的影响;第五部分针对研究结果,结合我国的实际情况提出相应的政策建议。
本文根据宏观经济学理论,研究了生产性公共支出对农村经济的影响。利用1978年到2007年三十年的数据,建立时间序列模型,运用最小二乘法和广义差分法,选取一些重要的解释变量对我国农村经济增长的影响进行了研究,结果表明:国家应加大对农业的公共支出,特别是国家对农业的生产性公共支出的规模,调整和优化政府对农业的公共支出的结构,同时加大对农业人口转移力度,只有这样,我国的农村和农业才能得到长久的发展。
Rural and agriculture is the foundation of the national economic development, the steady development of agriculture has a special contribution in Chinese social stability and economic development, and therefore, it is necessary for government to support. Government expenditure on agriculture is an important means to achieve agricultural development. Based on existing research and add the latest data, the paper researches and evaluates the impact of government expenditure on agricultural development systematically, particularly conducts an empirical study on the economic efficiency of the use of the funds. By analyzing the impact of the sub-item expenditure, the paper evaluates whether the size of the expenditures is reasonable.
This article is divided into five chapters: the first chapter introduces research background, research significance, as well as the innovations of this thesis. The second part is the Literature Review of the government public expenditure and economic growth, this section mainly summarizes the relevant literature on the domestic government public expenditure and economic growth in chronological order. The third part is the model of the mechanism of the interaction of the government's public spending on agriculture and agricultural economic growth, by theoretical explain modern macro-economic growth theory, the paper describes the three main factors of influencing agriculture economic growth: capital, labor, and government public input. The fourth chapter is empirical research of the relationship of our government's public spending on agriculture and agricultural economic growth. In this chapter, we first longitudinal analyzes nearly a dozen of China's agriculture development in a statistical view, then studies the relationship between our government's public spending on agriculture and agricultural economic growth. The index of state government's public spending which we select is the Productive Public Expenditure (PPE), also we analyze the role of the state financial expenditure for agriculture (Gov) and rural relief costs (RUR) on agriculture contribution to economic growth. The fifth part, combing the study results with actual situation, we put forward the corresponding suggestions for policies in light of government's public spending on agriculture.
According to the classical macroeconomic theory, the paper studies the impact of the Productive Public Expenditure (PPE) to the primary industry. Using data of the year1978 to 2007, the paper establishes time-series model, applying the least square method and the generalized difference method, the paper select the number of suitable explanatory variables to study the factors of the impact on the output of the primary industry. The results showed that: the states should increase the government's expenditure for agriculture, especially the size of the Productive Public Expenditure (PPE), adjust and optimize the structure of the government's expenditure for agriculture and increase the transfer of agricultural population on efforts at the same time, only in this way our country can have long-term agricultural and rural development.
引文
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[29]姚先国,周礼,来君.技术进步、技能需求与就业结构——基于制造业微观数据的技能偏态假说检验[J].中国人口科学,2005(5).
[30]黄季琨.中国农业的过去和未来[J].管理世界, 2004(3).
[31]林光彬.等级制度、市场经济与城乡收入差距扩大[J].管理世界, 2004 (4).
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[36]宋洪远,庞丽华,赵长保.统筹城乡,加快农村经济社会发展——当前的农村问题和未来的政策选择[J].管理世界,2003 (11).
[37]维托·坦奇,卢德格尔·舒克内希特.20世纪的公共支出[M].北京:商务印书馆, 2005 .
[38]王梦奎.关于统筹城乡发展和统筹区域发展[J].管理世界,2004(4).
[39]张红宇.城乡居民收入差距的平抑机制:工业化中期阶段的经济增长与政府行为选择[J].管理世界,2004 4).
[40]杜晓山.中国农村小额信贷的实践尝试[J].中国农村观察,2004(8).
[41]何广文.中国农村金融供求特征及均衡供求的路径选择[J].中国农村经济,2001(10).
[42]何梦笔(德),冯兴元,何广文.试论中国农村金融的多元化[J].中国农村观察,2004(5).
[43]吴宝国.扶贫模式——中国小额信贷扶贫研究[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2001.
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[2] Devarajan, Shantayanyan, Vinaya Swaroop and Heng-fu Zou. The Composition of Public Expenditure and Economic Growth [J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, 1996(37): 313-343.
[3] Aschauer, David A. Is Public Expenditure Productive [J]? Journal of Monetary Economics, 1989(10): 177-200.
[4] Easterly and Rebelo. Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of Monetary Economics [J], 1993(32): 417-58.
[5] C. Papageorgious et al. Nonlinearity in Capital-Skill Complementarities [J]. Journal of Economic Growth, 2005(32): 55-86.
[6] Zou Wei, Zhang Fen et al. Transport Infrastructure, Growth and Poverty Alleviation: Empirical Analysis of China [J]. Annals of Economics and Finance, 2008(9): 345-371.
[7] Dercon. Income Risk, Coping Strategies and Safety Nets. The World Bank Research Observer [R]. 1998, vol.17, no.2 (Fall 2002), pp.141—166.
[8] Dercon. Vulnerability, seasonality and poverty in Ethiopia [J]. Journal of Development Studies, 2000(6): 25-53.
[9] Somik V. Lall, Zmarak Shalizi and Uwe Derchmann. Agglomeration economies and productivity in Indian industry. Development Research Group [R]. The World Bank, Washington: DC 20433, 2003.
[10] Uwe Deichmann, Forhad Shilp and Renos Vakis. Urban Proximity, Agricultural Potential and Rural Non-farm Employment: Evidence from Bangladesh [R]. The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA: 2008.
[11]邹薇传统农业经济转型的路径选择:对中国农村的能力贫困和转型路径多样性的研究[J].世界经济,2005(2).
[12]邹薇,张芬.农村地区收入差异与人力资本积累[J].中国社会科学,2006(2).
[13]曹艳春.我国公共支出规模对经济增长影响的实证分析[J].财贸研究,2006(4).
[14]沈坤荣、张璟.中国农村公共支出及其绩效分析[J].管理世界, 2007(1).
[15]陆铭、陈钊.城市化、城市倾向的经济政策与城乡收入差距[J].经济研究,2004(6).
[16]王小鲁、樊纲.中国收入差距的走势和影响因素分析[J].经济研究,2005(10).
[17]王小鲁.我国收入差距分析及对策[J].国家行政学院学报,2007(4).
[18]李芝兰.我国农业增长中的政府投资影响[J].财经科学,2006(3).
[19]蔡昉.中国劳动力市场发育与就业变化[J].经济研究,2007(7).
[20]陈钊,陆铭.从分割到融合:城乡经济增长与社会和谐的政治经济学[J].经济研究,2008(1).
[21]周启涛.我国财政农业支出对农业经济增长的实证研究[D] .沈阳:辽宁大学研究生学院,2009.
[22]付文林,沈坤荣.中国公共支出的规模与结构及其增长效应[J].经济科学,2006(1).
[23]李实,赵人伟.收入差距还会持续扩大吗[J].中国改革,2006(6).
[24]林伯强.中国的政府公共支出与减贫政策[J].经济研究,2005(1).
[25]万广华,陈钊,陆铭.全球化与地区间收入差距[J].中国社会科学,2005(3).
[26]万广华.1985~2002年中国农村地区收入不平等:趋势、起因和政策含义[J].中国农村经济,2008(3).
[27]王小利.我国GDP长期增长中公共支出效应的实证分析[J].财经研究,2005(4)。
[28]王志涛.地方差距与地方政府的公共支出竞争[J].社会科学辑刊,2006(3).
[29]姚先国,周礼,来君.技术进步、技能需求与就业结构——基于制造业微观数据的技能偏态假说检验[J].中国人口科学,2005(5).
[30]黄季琨.中国农业的过去和未来[J].管理世界, 2004(3).
[31]林光彬.等级制度、市场经济与城乡收入差距扩大[J].管理世界, 2004 (4).
[32]罗伯特J.巴罗,哈维尔·萨拉伊马丁.经济增长[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社, 2000 .
[33]姚耀军,丕禅.农业财政支出与农业GDP( 1978~2001) :一个实证分析[J].中国农业大学学报(社会科学版),2004(1).
[34]桑贾伊·普拉丹.公共支出分析的基本方法[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社, 2000.
[35]世界银行.中国:推动公平的经济增长[M].北京:清华大学出版社, 2004 .
[36]宋洪远,庞丽华,赵长保.统筹城乡,加快农村经济社会发展——当前的农村问题和未来的政策选择[J].管理世界,2003 (11).
[37]维托·坦奇,卢德格尔·舒克内希特.20世纪的公共支出[M].北京:商务印书馆, 2005 .
[38]王梦奎.关于统筹城乡发展和统筹区域发展[J].管理世界,2004(4).
[39]张红宇.城乡居民收入差距的平抑机制:工业化中期阶段的经济增长与政府行为选择[J].管理世界,2004 4).
[40]杜晓山.中国农村小额信贷的实践尝试[J].中国农村观察,2004(8).
[41]何广文.中国农村金融供求特征及均衡供求的路径选择[J].中国农村经济,2001(10).
[42]何梦笔(德),冯兴元,何广文.试论中国农村金融的多元化[J].中国农村观察,2004(5).
[43]吴宝国.扶贫模式——中国小额信贷扶贫研究[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2001.
[44]万广华.经济发展与收入不均等:方法和证据[M].上海:上海三联书店,2006 .
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