物流业对中国经济增长的影响研究
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摘要
经济的快速增长对物流业产生了巨大的需求,促使物流业以及与物流相关的交通运输、仓储配送和邮电通信业等都有较快的发展。同时,作为经济增长的“加速器”物流业的快速发展将会改变国民经济增长方式,降低国民经济的运行成本,促进了经济的可持续发展。物流对于经济增长的影响以及物流业与经济增长之间的关系已经成为物流领域的一个研究重点。
本文在借鉴国内外研究成果的基础上,结合我国国民经济的发展现状,利用投入产出分析法,根据2002年我国的投入产出表,定量的测算我国物流业对其他产业的关联效应和波及效应。通过计量检验,探讨了物流业与经济增长之间的关系,国内生产总值增量与物流产值增量、运输路线总长和货物周转量之间存在协整关系。通过个体单位和面板群组间的FMOLS估计表明各地区经济增长与物流市场规模、物流供给规模和物流需求之间存在正相关关系。
依据空间面板模型,针对经济发展的不同阶段,对物流与省际经济增长之间的空间相关关系进行了估计。通过分析,各个地区GDP和物流都有显著的空间相关特征,反映出相邻地区之间地区GDP和物流具有明显的空间溢出(扩散)效用。物流对各地区的GDP增长具有显著的影响,但是对于经济增长的影响程度有限。不同的地区固定影响参数表现出很大的差异性,地区经济发展水平越高的地方,物流水平也越高。随着经济的发展,各地区的物流与各地区的GDP增长的关联性也越来越明显。省域物流之间存在较强的空间依赖作用。
Logistics is developing rapidly in China since 1979 after the new word of logistics was introduced from Japan. Starting at 1990's, our government, companies and academia began to focus on studying how to develop logistics in China. Entering into 21th century the rapid development of Chinese economy generates the giant requirement of logistics, which impelled the faster development of logistics industry, transportation industry, warehousing industry, post and telecommunication industry etc. which are relevant to logistics industry. Meanwhile as the accelerator of economic growth the rapid development of logistics industry will change the national economic growth mode, decrease the operation cost of national economy, and promote continual development of economy.
Compared with developed countries and areas, although Chinese logistics industry has achieved rapid development, there are some problems such as still in preliminary development phase, the small scale, unbalanced geographical distribution and the deficiency of post role of national economy. For analyzing and solving the problems this paper made quantitative analysis. We analyzed the effect factor of logistics industry in Chinese national economy, the long-term relationship and spatial correlation between logistics industry and Chinese national economy on the basis of domestic and foreign research achievements and current situation of national economy.
The main content shows as below:
The first chapter is exordium. It introduces the background of study topic selection and its meaning. We know the different focus field of domestic and foreign logistics research. Foreign logistics research emphasized on microcosmic enterprise level and devoted to provide the optimization strategy for the enterprise's whole. However domestic logistics research emphasized to study logistics on macroscopical and regional level.
The second chapter neatens the theory of logistics and economic growth. During the gradual development of logistics theory, it formed many theories. Such as "The theory of logistics cost center" which indicates the logistics is not only the point of producing the cost but also the focus point of decreasing the cost. "The theory of logistics profits" emphasizes on modern logistics is unbeknown the third profit source. "The theory of logistics service" emphasizes the function of logistics service guarantee, depending on it enterprises can decreases the total cost of production and operation, can expands profits space. "The theory of logistics benefit back counter" points out logistics essential factor's benefits back counter-relations. "The theory of logistics strategy" thinks logistics will affect the subsistence and development of enterprises, and make effect on the development of enterprises in the long run. "Supply chain theory" emphasizes the holistic, coordinated and optimal network chain of enterprises. "Green logistics" points out enterprises should inhibit harm to environments in the process of logistics. Logistics resource should be used 100 pecent and purifies logistics environments.
The third chapter studies the current situation and trend of logistics industry in American, European, Japan and China. The paper analyzes the status of logistics industry in national economy on the macro, medium and micro-perspective. Finally it analyzes the reasons of the formation and evolvement of logistics industry on the economic perspective.
The fourth chapter quantitatively calculates the contribution effect and spread effect of logistics industry on the other industries by the input-output method base on 2002 input-output data of China. The results show that the drive power of logistics industry on the second industry is the largest; the impetus of logistics industry to the second industry is significantly enhanced. The drive power of logistics industry on the third industry significantly improved compared with the power of 1997, the growth rate is fastest than the growth rate of the second industry, but the impetus to the third industry is still deficient. In a word, the drive power of logistics industry to national economy is still weaker; the drive power of national economy to logistics industry is relatively bigger. In all industries the impetus of logistics to national economy is relatively weaker. The share of the final products of logistics industry accounts less for the share of the final products of national economy; it is not obvious that the drive effect of the final products of the logistics industry to national economy compared with the drive effect of other industries. On amount to original in the logistics industry the impetus effect to national economy is not bigger. If the share of amount to original in the national economy is increased, the impetus effect of the logistics industry on the national economy will become more obvious.
The fifth chapter studies the relationship between the logistics industry and the economy growth by using econometric test approach. Firstly, the relationship between the logistics industry and the economy growth is quantitatively analyzed by the panel unit roots tests and panel cointegration tests. Secondly, on FMOLS the rate and direction between them is quantitatively analyzed. The results show that at 1% significant level there is a cointegration between GDP growth and logistics increment, the length of transport route, freight turnover, also there is cointegration between logistics increment and the length of transport route, freight turnover, at 5% significant level there is not a cointegration between the length of transport route and freight turnover. There is positive correlation between economy growth and the logistics market scale, the logistics supply scale, result from logistics demand on individual and panel group FMOLS.
The sixth chapter mainly studies the spatial correlation between the logistics and provincial regionally economy according to the development stages of economy in China by the spatial panel model. The results show that the spatial correlation between the logistics and provincial regionally economy is significant. There is significant spatial spillover effect. There is significant effect of logistics on economy growth, but the effect grade is limited. It accords with the low degree of modernization of logistics, the imperfect network system of logistics, the low degree of informatization of logistics and the low level of logistics management. There is great heterogeneity in the different region, the higher level of regional economy the higher level of logistics. With the development of economy, the correlation between logistics and economy growth is more and more significant. It accords that logistics decreases operational cost, increases the rate of product in fact. Among the regional logistics there is stronger spatial interdependent, some reasons which are negligible such as the network of logistics, transportation network, will make effect by error term. It shows that logistics has spatial interaction among adjacent regions.
The seventh chapter gives the reference development policy for government base on the status of our country logistics industry. To promote the development of logistics industry should further strengthen the infrastructure of logistics industry, and further realize the fundamental and lead position of logistics industry in the national economy, establish the development planning of logistics industry unisonously, and construct the reasonable structure of logistics industry. Meanwhile should positively develop the third party logistics, and strengthen the research of logistics theory and cultivate human resource of logistics industry.
本文在借鉴国内外研究成果的基础上,结合我国国民经济的发展现状,利用投入产出分析法,根据2002年我国的投入产出表,定量的测算我国物流业对其他产业的关联效应和波及效应。通过计量检验,探讨了物流业与经济增长之间的关系,国内生产总值增量与物流产值增量、运输路线总长和货物周转量之间存在协整关系。通过个体单位和面板群组间的FMOLS估计表明各地区经济增长与物流市场规模、物流供给规模和物流需求之间存在正相关关系。
依据空间面板模型,针对经济发展的不同阶段,对物流与省际经济增长之间的空间相关关系进行了估计。通过分析,各个地区GDP和物流都有显著的空间相关特征,反映出相邻地区之间地区GDP和物流具有明显的空间溢出(扩散)效用。物流对各地区的GDP增长具有显著的影响,但是对于经济增长的影响程度有限。不同的地区固定影响参数表现出很大的差异性,地区经济发展水平越高的地方,物流水平也越高。随着经济的发展,各地区的物流与各地区的GDP增长的关联性也越来越明显。省域物流之间存在较强的空间依赖作用。
Logistics is developing rapidly in China since 1979 after the new word of logistics was introduced from Japan. Starting at 1990's, our government, companies and academia began to focus on studying how to develop logistics in China. Entering into 21th century the rapid development of Chinese economy generates the giant requirement of logistics, which impelled the faster development of logistics industry, transportation industry, warehousing industry, post and telecommunication industry etc. which are relevant to logistics industry. Meanwhile as the accelerator of economic growth the rapid development of logistics industry will change the national economic growth mode, decrease the operation cost of national economy, and promote continual development of economy.
Compared with developed countries and areas, although Chinese logistics industry has achieved rapid development, there are some problems such as still in preliminary development phase, the small scale, unbalanced geographical distribution and the deficiency of post role of national economy. For analyzing and solving the problems this paper made quantitative analysis. We analyzed the effect factor of logistics industry in Chinese national economy, the long-term relationship and spatial correlation between logistics industry and Chinese national economy on the basis of domestic and foreign research achievements and current situation of national economy.
The main content shows as below:
The first chapter is exordium. It introduces the background of study topic selection and its meaning. We know the different focus field of domestic and foreign logistics research. Foreign logistics research emphasized on microcosmic enterprise level and devoted to provide the optimization strategy for the enterprise's whole. However domestic logistics research emphasized to study logistics on macroscopical and regional level.
The second chapter neatens the theory of logistics and economic growth. During the gradual development of logistics theory, it formed many theories. Such as "The theory of logistics cost center" which indicates the logistics is not only the point of producing the cost but also the focus point of decreasing the cost. "The theory of logistics profits" emphasizes on modern logistics is unbeknown the third profit source. "The theory of logistics service" emphasizes the function of logistics service guarantee, depending on it enterprises can decreases the total cost of production and operation, can expands profits space. "The theory of logistics benefit back counter" points out logistics essential factor's benefits back counter-relations. "The theory of logistics strategy" thinks logistics will affect the subsistence and development of enterprises, and make effect on the development of enterprises in the long run. "Supply chain theory" emphasizes the holistic, coordinated and optimal network chain of enterprises. "Green logistics" points out enterprises should inhibit harm to environments in the process of logistics. Logistics resource should be used 100 pecent and purifies logistics environments.
The third chapter studies the current situation and trend of logistics industry in American, European, Japan and China. The paper analyzes the status of logistics industry in national economy on the macro, medium and micro-perspective. Finally it analyzes the reasons of the formation and evolvement of logistics industry on the economic perspective.
The fourth chapter quantitatively calculates the contribution effect and spread effect of logistics industry on the other industries by the input-output method base on 2002 input-output data of China. The results show that the drive power of logistics industry on the second industry is the largest; the impetus of logistics industry to the second industry is significantly enhanced. The drive power of logistics industry on the third industry significantly improved compared with the power of 1997, the growth rate is fastest than the growth rate of the second industry, but the impetus to the third industry is still deficient. In a word, the drive power of logistics industry to national economy is still weaker; the drive power of national economy to logistics industry is relatively bigger. In all industries the impetus of logistics to national economy is relatively weaker. The share of the final products of logistics industry accounts less for the share of the final products of national economy; it is not obvious that the drive effect of the final products of the logistics industry to national economy compared with the drive effect of other industries. On amount to original in the logistics industry the impetus effect to national economy is not bigger. If the share of amount to original in the national economy is increased, the impetus effect of the logistics industry on the national economy will become more obvious.
The fifth chapter studies the relationship between the logistics industry and the economy growth by using econometric test approach. Firstly, the relationship between the logistics industry and the economy growth is quantitatively analyzed by the panel unit roots tests and panel cointegration tests. Secondly, on FMOLS the rate and direction between them is quantitatively analyzed. The results show that at 1% significant level there is a cointegration between GDP growth and logistics increment, the length of transport route, freight turnover, also there is cointegration between logistics increment and the length of transport route, freight turnover, at 5% significant level there is not a cointegration between the length of transport route and freight turnover. There is positive correlation between economy growth and the logistics market scale, the logistics supply scale, result from logistics demand on individual and panel group FMOLS.
The sixth chapter mainly studies the spatial correlation between the logistics and provincial regionally economy according to the development stages of economy in China by the spatial panel model. The results show that the spatial correlation between the logistics and provincial regionally economy is significant. There is significant spatial spillover effect. There is significant effect of logistics on economy growth, but the effect grade is limited. It accords with the low degree of modernization of logistics, the imperfect network system of logistics, the low degree of informatization of logistics and the low level of logistics management. There is great heterogeneity in the different region, the higher level of regional economy the higher level of logistics. With the development of economy, the correlation between logistics and economy growth is more and more significant. It accords that logistics decreases operational cost, increases the rate of product in fact. Among the regional logistics there is stronger spatial interdependent, some reasons which are negligible such as the network of logistics, transportation network, will make effect by error term. It shows that logistics has spatial interaction among adjacent regions.
The seventh chapter gives the reference development policy for government base on the status of our country logistics industry. To promote the development of logistics industry should further strengthen the infrastructure of logistics industry, and further realize the fundamental and lead position of logistics industry in the national economy, establish the development planning of logistics industry unisonously, and construct the reasonable structure of logistics industry. Meanwhile should positively develop the third party logistics, and strengthen the research of logistics theory and cultivate human resource of logistics industry.
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