国际外包对承接国的影响研究
|
摘要
随着国际新型分工的进一步深入,国际外包发展迅速,中国制造业通过大量承接国际外包促进了经济快速发展,但也对制造业的出口商品结构、比较优势以及国际竞争力产生了影响。本文从理论与实证两方面重点关注我国制造业承接国际外包的水平以及承接国际外包对我国制造业的影响,为制定科学的外包政策提供依据。
理论方面,首先利用2*2生产模型对不同部门不同类型的四种情况进行分析,结果表明,四种国际外包皆产生于比较成本优势和规模经济,其作用体现在承接国等成本曲线的斜率和位置的变化;而不同点在于劳动部门的劳动密集型外包可能导致陷入“比较优势陷阱”和导致贸易摩擦,资本部门的资本密集型外包对我国改善贸易结构、提升核心竞争力和模仿能力以及价值链的攀升都具有重大意义;其次分析承接国际外包对要素禀赋和比较优势的影响,发现承接大量的外包使得我国出口商品的总要素密度发生变化,于此同时我国的比较优势也受到承接外包的影响。
实证方面,首先采用投入产出矩阵法测度我国1997年和2002年制造业部门承接国际外包水平,结果表明,从部门分类看,我国制造业各部门承接国际外包水平不一,发展速度差异较大。机械工业、化学工业一直保持了较高的承接水平,而服装皮革羽绒及其它制品业与食品制造及烟草加工业一直处于较低水平;从要素分类看,资本技术密集型部门承接国际外包水平最高,资本密集型部门增长最快;从进口中间投入和总产出看,资本技术密集型的部门承接外包更多的是依赖进口国外的中间投入,劳动密集型部门承接外包更多是依赖本土采购。其次把承接国际外包水平与我国制造业发展相联系,通过对比同期RCA与TC指数分析承接国际外包对我国制造业的影响,结果表明,承接外包水平与比较优势是相互依存,相互影响的关系;而对产品国际竞争力的影响不显著。最后在理论分析和实证分析的基础上,从三个方面对我国承接国际外包提出具体的政策建议。
With international division’s deepening, the undertaking of international outsourcing makes China’s manufacturing develop rapidly, but also impacts the trading pattern, comparative advantages and international competitiveness. This paper analyses the level of outsourcing-undertaking and its impacts, based on theoretical and empirical aspects.
On theoretical aspect, firstly, we use 2*2 production model to analysis the different departments of four different types of outsourcing, the results show that all the four have been abided by the comparative advantages and the scale economies, and they all impact the location and the slope of the cost curve; but the differences are the labor department's labor-intensive outsourcing could lead into a "comparative advantages traps" and make trade friction, the capital department's capital-intensive outsourcing could improve trading pattern, enhance core competitiveness and ability to imitate, and help climbing the value chain. Secondly, we analysis the impact of outsourcing-undertake to the endowments and comparative advantages, we find outsourcing-undertake changes the total factor density and the comparative advantages of manufactured productsat the same time.
On empirical aspect, firstly, we use the input-output matrix method to measure the level of outsourcing-undertaking of China’s manufacturing in 1997 and 2002, the results show that, view from the sectors, China's manufacturing sectors have different levels and different speeds, for example, machinery industry, the chemical industry have been at a high level, eiderdown clothing , leather products industry , the food manufacturing and tobacco processing industry have been at a low level; view from the factor density, capital & technology intensive sectors has been at the highest level, and capital-intensive sectors develops fastest; view from intermediate imports and total outputs, capital & technology intensive sector is more likely to dependent on foreign intermediate imports, and the labor-intensive sector is more likely to dependent on local intermediate. Secondly, we contrast the RCA index and the TC index to the outsourcing-undertaking level at the same period, the results show that the outsourcing-undertaking level and the comparative advantage are inter-depended and inter-influenced; but outsourcing-undertaking level has no notable impact to the international competitiveness. Finally, under the previous theoretical and empirical analysis, we present four policy recommendations about outsourcing-undertaking.
理论方面,首先利用2*2生产模型对不同部门不同类型的四种情况进行分析,结果表明,四种国际外包皆产生于比较成本优势和规模经济,其作用体现在承接国等成本曲线的斜率和位置的变化;而不同点在于劳动部门的劳动密集型外包可能导致陷入“比较优势陷阱”和导致贸易摩擦,资本部门的资本密集型外包对我国改善贸易结构、提升核心竞争力和模仿能力以及价值链的攀升都具有重大意义;其次分析承接国际外包对要素禀赋和比较优势的影响,发现承接大量的外包使得我国出口商品的总要素密度发生变化,于此同时我国的比较优势也受到承接外包的影响。
实证方面,首先采用投入产出矩阵法测度我国1997年和2002年制造业部门承接国际外包水平,结果表明,从部门分类看,我国制造业各部门承接国际外包水平不一,发展速度差异较大。机械工业、化学工业一直保持了较高的承接水平,而服装皮革羽绒及其它制品业与食品制造及烟草加工业一直处于较低水平;从要素分类看,资本技术密集型部门承接国际外包水平最高,资本密集型部门增长最快;从进口中间投入和总产出看,资本技术密集型的部门承接外包更多的是依赖进口国外的中间投入,劳动密集型部门承接外包更多是依赖本土采购。其次把承接国际外包水平与我国制造业发展相联系,通过对比同期RCA与TC指数分析承接国际外包对我国制造业的影响,结果表明,承接外包水平与比较优势是相互依存,相互影响的关系;而对产品国际竞争力的影响不显著。最后在理论分析和实证分析的基础上,从三个方面对我国承接国际外包提出具体的政策建议。
With international division’s deepening, the undertaking of international outsourcing makes China’s manufacturing develop rapidly, but also impacts the trading pattern, comparative advantages and international competitiveness. This paper analyses the level of outsourcing-undertaking and its impacts, based on theoretical and empirical aspects.
On theoretical aspect, firstly, we use 2*2 production model to analysis the different departments of four different types of outsourcing, the results show that all the four have been abided by the comparative advantages and the scale economies, and they all impact the location and the slope of the cost curve; but the differences are the labor department's labor-intensive outsourcing could lead into a "comparative advantages traps" and make trade friction, the capital department's capital-intensive outsourcing could improve trading pattern, enhance core competitiveness and ability to imitate, and help climbing the value chain. Secondly, we analysis the impact of outsourcing-undertake to the endowments and comparative advantages, we find outsourcing-undertake changes the total factor density and the comparative advantages of manufactured productsat the same time.
On empirical aspect, firstly, we use the input-output matrix method to measure the level of outsourcing-undertaking of China’s manufacturing in 1997 and 2002, the results show that, view from the sectors, China's manufacturing sectors have different levels and different speeds, for example, machinery industry, the chemical industry have been at a high level, eiderdown clothing , leather products industry , the food manufacturing and tobacco processing industry have been at a low level; view from the factor density, capital & technology intensive sectors has been at the highest level, and capital-intensive sectors develops fastest; view from intermediate imports and total outputs, capital & technology intensive sector is more likely to dependent on foreign intermediate imports, and the labor-intensive sector is more likely to dependent on local intermediate. Secondly, we contrast the RCA index and the TC index to the outsourcing-undertaking level at the same period, the results show that the outsourcing-undertaking level and the comparative advantage are inter-depended and inter-influenced; but outsourcing-undertaking level has no notable impact to the international competitiveness. Finally, under the previous theoretical and empirical analysis, we present four policy recommendations about outsourcing-undertaking.
引文
[1] 卢锋. 产品内分工:一个分析框架. 北京大学中国经济研究中心讨论稿, 2004, (5)
[2] Jones, Ronald W. and Kierzkowski, Henryk. The role of services in production and international trade: A theoretical framework. In Ronald W. Jones and Anne , Krueger, (eds), The Political Economy of International Trade: Essays in Honor of Robert E. Baldwin. Cambridge, MA: Blackwell, 1990, 31-48
[3] Feenstra, Robert C. and Gordon H. Hanson, “Foreign Investment, Outsourcing and Relative Wages” Papers in Honor of Jagdish Bhagwati, MIT Press, 1996, 89-127
[4] Bhagwati, J. N. “The Heckscher Ohlin Theorenm in the Multi-Commodity Case,” Journal of Political Economy 30, 1972, 1052-1055
[5] Jones, Ronald W. and Kierzkowski, Henryk. The role of services in production and international trade: A theoretical framework. In Ronald W. Jones and Anne , Krueger, (eds), The Political Economy of International Trade: Essays in Honor of Robert E. Baldwin. Cambridge, MA: Blackwell, 1990, 31-48
[6] Deardorff, Alan V. Fragmentation across cones. In Arndt, Sven W. and Kierzkowski, Henryk (ed.), Fragmentation: New Production Patterns in the World Economy. Oxford University Press, 2001,35-51
[7] Krugman, Paul. Growing world trade: Causes and consequences. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.,1995,Vol. Issue 1, 25th Anniversary Issue, 1995, 327-362
[8] Hummels David, Jun Ishii, and Kei-Mu Yi, “The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade,” Journal of International Economics, 2001.
[9] 林毅夫, 蔡肪, 李周. 中国的奇迹: 发展战略与经济改革. 上海: 上海三联书店, 上海人民出版社, 1997, 101-124
[10] 吴敬琏. 当代中国经济改革. 上海远东出版社, 2003
[11] Bhagwati, Jagdish, 2004, “In Defense of Globalization”, Oxford University Press.
[12] Landefeld, J. Steven, and Raymond Mataloni, “Offshore Outsourcing and Multinational Companies,” NBEA working paper 2004,(6)
[13] Borga, Maria, “Trends in Employment at U.S. Multinational Companies: Evidence from Firm-Level Data,” Bureau of Economic Analysis mimeo, 2005
[14] Grossman Gene M. and Helpman, “Outsourcing in a Global Economy,” Reviewof Economic Studies 2005,72, 135–159
[15] Bhagwati, Jagdish, Arvind Panagariya and T.N. Srinivasan, “Muddles Over Outsourcing,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(4), Fall, 2004, 93-114
[16] Ingo Geishecker and Holger Gorg, “International Outsourcing and Wages: Winners and Losers,” www. Nottingham.ac.uk/economics/staff/d, 2004
[17] 田贞余. 国际产业调整和转移的新趋势——国际外包商业研究 2005/17
[18] 韦畅, 黄先海. “外包对承接国的效应分析及中国承接外包水平的实证研究”. 2006
[19] Feenstra , “Ownership and Control in Outsouring to China: Estimating The Property-rights Theory of The Firm” , NBER Working Paper 10198, 2003.
[20] Barbara J. Spencer, “International Outsourcing and Incomplete Contracts” Nber Working Paper 11418, 2005
[21] 唐宜红, 闫金光. 离岸外包对中国出口结构的影响. 南开学报(哲学社会科学版), 2006, (3)
[22] Hartmut Egger, Josef Falkinger “The distributional effects of international outsourcing in a 2 × 2 production model”, North American Journal of Economics and Finance 14 2003, 189–206
[23] Mann, Catherine, “Globalization, Information Technology, and U.S. Economic Performance” 2005.
[24] 宋玉华, 周均. 国际外包、就业和收入分配之文献综述. 国际贸易问题, 2006, (6)
[25] 张鸿. 我国对外贸易结构及其比较优势的实证分析. 国际贸易问题, 2006, (4)
[26] 林毅夫, 蔡肪, 李周. 中国的奇迹: 发展战略与经济改革. 上海: 上海三联书店, 上海人民出版社, 1997, 101-124
[27] 王汝忠.贫困化增长—贸易条件变动中的疑问.上海:上海社会科学院出版,1999
[28] 张亚斌, 曾铮. 管理学与经济学在价值链理论上的渗透与融合. 经济学动态, 2006
[29] Alan V. Deardorff. 2005 “Ricardian comparative advantage with intermediate inputs”, North American Journal of Economics and Finance (2005) 16 11–34
[30] 刘力. 比较优势原则的若干否定之否定. 国际经贸探索, 1998, (1)
[31] Feenstra, Robert C. and Gordon H. Hanson, 1999, “The Impact of Outsourcing and High-Technology Capital on Wages: Estimates for the U.S., 1979-1990,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, August 1999, 114(3), 907-940
[32] 吴振宇 沈利生, “中国对外贸易对 GDP 贡献的经验分析”. 世界经济, 2004, (2)
[33] 潘 悦. 国际产业转移的四次浪潮及其影响. 现代国际关系, 2006, (4)
[34] 朱有为, 张向阳. 国际制造业与服务业向中国转移的协同关系分析. 中国软科学, 2005, (10)
[35] 吴敬琏. 当代中国经济改革. 上海远东出版社, 2003, 18
[36] 魏 浩, 毛日昇, 张二震. 中国制成品出口比较优势及贸易结构分析. 世界经济, 2005, (2)
[37] 汪素芹. 我国工业制成品出口贸易结构与竞争力实证分析. 国际贸易问题, 2005, (6)
[38] 张亚斌, 周琛影. 再论比较优势和竞争优势. 国际经贸探索, 2002, (3)
[39] 刘志彪, 申俊喜等. 经济结构优化论. 人民出版社, 2003, 34
[40] 刘兴明. 禀赋结构、发展战略与经济增长. 北京大学经济研究中心讨论稿系列, 2002-8-15
[41] 樊纲, 关志雄, 姚志仲. 国际贸易结构分析. 经济研究, 2006,(8)
[2] Jones, Ronald W. and Kierzkowski, Henryk. The role of services in production and international trade: A theoretical framework. In Ronald W. Jones and Anne , Krueger, (eds), The Political Economy of International Trade: Essays in Honor of Robert E. Baldwin. Cambridge, MA: Blackwell, 1990, 31-48
[3] Feenstra, Robert C. and Gordon H. Hanson, “Foreign Investment, Outsourcing and Relative Wages” Papers in Honor of Jagdish Bhagwati, MIT Press, 1996, 89-127
[4] Bhagwati, J. N. “The Heckscher Ohlin Theorenm in the Multi-Commodity Case,” Journal of Political Economy 30, 1972, 1052-1055
[5] Jones, Ronald W. and Kierzkowski, Henryk. The role of services in production and international trade: A theoretical framework. In Ronald W. Jones and Anne , Krueger, (eds), The Political Economy of International Trade: Essays in Honor of Robert E. Baldwin. Cambridge, MA: Blackwell, 1990, 31-48
[6] Deardorff, Alan V. Fragmentation across cones. In Arndt, Sven W. and Kierzkowski, Henryk (ed.), Fragmentation: New Production Patterns in the World Economy. Oxford University Press, 2001,35-51
[7] Krugman, Paul. Growing world trade: Causes and consequences. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.,1995,Vol. Issue 1, 25th Anniversary Issue, 1995, 327-362
[8] Hummels David, Jun Ishii, and Kei-Mu Yi, “The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade,” Journal of International Economics, 2001.
[9] 林毅夫, 蔡肪, 李周. 中国的奇迹: 发展战略与经济改革. 上海: 上海三联书店, 上海人民出版社, 1997, 101-124
[10] 吴敬琏. 当代中国经济改革. 上海远东出版社, 2003
[11] Bhagwati, Jagdish, 2004, “In Defense of Globalization”, Oxford University Press.
[12] Landefeld, J. Steven, and Raymond Mataloni, “Offshore Outsourcing and Multinational Companies,” NBEA working paper 2004,(6)
[13] Borga, Maria, “Trends in Employment at U.S. Multinational Companies: Evidence from Firm-Level Data,” Bureau of Economic Analysis mimeo, 2005
[14] Grossman Gene M. and Helpman, “Outsourcing in a Global Economy,” Reviewof Economic Studies 2005,72, 135–159
[15] Bhagwati, Jagdish, Arvind Panagariya and T.N. Srinivasan, “Muddles Over Outsourcing,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(4), Fall, 2004, 93-114
[16] Ingo Geishecker and Holger Gorg, “International Outsourcing and Wages: Winners and Losers,” www. Nottingham.ac.uk/economics/staff/d, 2004
[17] 田贞余. 国际产业调整和转移的新趋势——国际外包商业研究 2005/17
[18] 韦畅, 黄先海. “外包对承接国的效应分析及中国承接外包水平的实证研究”. 2006
[19] Feenstra , “Ownership and Control in Outsouring to China: Estimating The Property-rights Theory of The Firm” , NBER Working Paper 10198, 2003.
[20] Barbara J. Spencer, “International Outsourcing and Incomplete Contracts” Nber Working Paper 11418, 2005
[21] 唐宜红, 闫金光. 离岸外包对中国出口结构的影响. 南开学报(哲学社会科学版), 2006, (3)
[22] Hartmut Egger, Josef Falkinger “The distributional effects of international outsourcing in a 2 × 2 production model”, North American Journal of Economics and Finance 14 2003, 189–206
[23] Mann, Catherine, “Globalization, Information Technology, and U.S. Economic Performance” 2005.
[24] 宋玉华, 周均. 国际外包、就业和收入分配之文献综述. 国际贸易问题, 2006, (6)
[25] 张鸿. 我国对外贸易结构及其比较优势的实证分析. 国际贸易问题, 2006, (4)
[26] 林毅夫, 蔡肪, 李周. 中国的奇迹: 发展战略与经济改革. 上海: 上海三联书店, 上海人民出版社, 1997, 101-124
[27] 王汝忠.贫困化增长—贸易条件变动中的疑问.上海:上海社会科学院出版,1999
[28] 张亚斌, 曾铮. 管理学与经济学在价值链理论上的渗透与融合. 经济学动态, 2006
[29] Alan V. Deardorff. 2005 “Ricardian comparative advantage with intermediate inputs”, North American Journal of Economics and Finance (2005) 16 11–34
[30] 刘力. 比较优势原则的若干否定之否定. 国际经贸探索, 1998, (1)
[31] Feenstra, Robert C. and Gordon H. Hanson, 1999, “The Impact of Outsourcing and High-Technology Capital on Wages: Estimates for the U.S., 1979-1990,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, August 1999, 114(3), 907-940
[32] 吴振宇 沈利生, “中国对外贸易对 GDP 贡献的经验分析”. 世界经济, 2004, (2)
[33] 潘 悦. 国际产业转移的四次浪潮及其影响. 现代国际关系, 2006, (4)
[34] 朱有为, 张向阳. 国际制造业与服务业向中国转移的协同关系分析. 中国软科学, 2005, (10)
[35] 吴敬琏. 当代中国经济改革. 上海远东出版社, 2003, 18
[36] 魏 浩, 毛日昇, 张二震. 中国制成品出口比较优势及贸易结构分析. 世界经济, 2005, (2)
[37] 汪素芹. 我国工业制成品出口贸易结构与竞争力实证分析. 国际贸易问题, 2005, (6)
[38] 张亚斌, 周琛影. 再论比较优势和竞争优势. 国际经贸探索, 2002, (3)
[39] 刘志彪, 申俊喜等. 经济结构优化论. 人民出版社, 2003, 34
[40] 刘兴明. 禀赋结构、发展战略与经济增长. 北京大学经济研究中心讨论稿系列, 2002-8-15
[41] 樊纲, 关志雄, 姚志仲. 国际贸易结构分析. 经济研究, 2006,(8)