空中交通管制安全风险耦合机理研究
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摘要
随着航空运输业呈现出的高速发展状况,空中交通流量持续增长,空域环境日益复杂。航空“安全第一”的行业特点对空管提出了更高的要求,然而我国空中交通管制服务保障能力的瓶颈效应越来越突出。如果不能有效地提升空管安全保障水平,将会有越来越多的民航事故和征候发生。
空管系统对风险管理的需求已经从“事后处理”发展到“事前预防”阶段,由经验管理转向系统安全风险管理阶段。由于空管系统涉及到人、设备、环境、管理等方面,风险源日趋增多,风险的形成也日益复杂。因此,加强对空管安全风险耦合机理的研究,有助于从系统的角度进一步了解耦合风险对空管安全产生影响的整个动态过程,从而揭示耦合风险的有关规律,以便更好地控制和管理空管安全整体风险,此项研究具有重要的现实意义。本论文综合运用现代风险管理理论、安全科学、复杂科学、系统论、故障诊断理论、经济计量学等相关学科的理论和方法,将多学科的学术前沿内容有机地交叉融合在一起,具有重要的研究价值。全文由七大部分组成：
第一部分说明了研究背景及选题的来源,明确了研究目标和研究意义,在国内外相关研究综述的基础上,确定了研究内容和方法。
第二部分阐述了空管安全风险的内涵和特征,在此基础上对空管安全风险耦合的内涵作了界定,并对空管安全风险耦合的关键要素进行了分析。然后,提出了风险相干原理、风险波动原理和空管系统脆性原理,以期为系统分析空管安全风险耦合机理提供理论参照。
第三部分重点研究了空管安全风险的耦合规律。在对空管安全风险耦合进行分类的基础上,提炼出了空管安全风险耦合的特征；接着对空管安全风险因素进行深入分析,详细地剖析了空管安全风险耦合的过程；然后,首次运用系统动力学的原理和方法对空管安全风险各因素之间的相互作用进行了因果关系分析；并对空管安全风险耦合过程中的风险流用数学语言进行了描述。
第四部分对空管安全风险致因进行了探讨。通过设计空中交通管制安全风险调查问卷,并对问卷进行效度和信度检验,验证了本文提出的假设,揭示了引发空管安全主要风险因素的内在原因。
第五部分在对相关的风险模型进行比较和选择的基础上,首次构建了基于复杂网络的空管安全风险耦合N-K模型,并结合空管近十年来的不安全事件进行了验证性分析。
第六部分对空管安全耦合风险管理策略进行设计。基于空管安全风险耦合过程的分析,结合空管安全耦合风险的解耦原理,首次提出了网格化、错峰法和防脆型三种空管安全耦合风险管理策略。
第七部分对全文进行了总结,并对空管安全风险耦合机理及解耦方法后期的深入研究进行了展望。
The aviation transportation is under rapid development, the air traffic flow has been growing constantly and environment in airspace has become increasingly complicated. As safety has always been the highest priority for aviation, it puts forward higher requirements to air traffic control (ATC), making the service and security capacity of air traffic control of China a more prominent bottleneck.So,if the abilities of safeguarding ATC safety can not be improved effectivelymore and more civil aviation accidents and incidents will take place and appear.
What the ATC industry requires in risk management now has developed from "post-flight processing" to the period of prevention in advance ",from the stage of management by experience to systematic safety risk management. Because the ATC system involves the aspects of person,hardware,environment and management, the source of risk has been increasing and the forming process of risk has become increasingly complicated.So, the research on the coupling mechanism of ATC safety risk can help to get a further understanding of the whole dynamic process of how the coupling risk have effect on ATC safety and reveal the relevant laws of coupling risk.So that, the whole ATC safety risk can be controlled and managed better,making the research of important practical significance.This dissertation employs the theories and methods of modern risk management, safety science, complexity science,system theory,fault diagnosis theory and econometrics,includes the contents of academic frontiers from many subjects and has a significant research value.The whole dissertation is composed of 7 parts as follows:
Chapter 1 explains the research background and the source of the solected topic, makes clear the contents and the methods of the research based on the research review of home and abroad.
Chapter 2 details the connotation and feature of ATC safety risk, and based on this,defines the connotation of ATC safety risk coupling and analyzes the key factors of it.Then this dissertation puts forward the principles of risk coherence,risk volatility and principles of the ATC system brittleness.The aim is to provide theoretical reference for the systematic analysis of ATC safety risk coupling mechanism and decoupling method.
Chapter 3 mainly studys the coupling law of ATC safety risk,epurates the characteristics of ATC safety risk coupling based on the classification of ATC safety risk coupling, then makes a thorough analysis on the ATC safety risk factors and analyzes the coupling process of ATC safety risk in detail, and then applies the theory and method of system dynamics to study the causation of the interactions among the many factors of ATC safety risk for the first time and describes the risk flow in the process of ATC safety risk coupling in mathematical language.
Chapter 4—explores the cause of ATC safety risk, tests the hypothesis the dissertation proposed through designing the questionnaire of ATC safety risk and testing validity and reliability of the questionnaire and indicates the essential reason that cause the main ATC safety risk factors.
Chapter 5 establishes the N-K model of ATC safety risk coupling based on complicated net for the first time after comparing the many related risk models, and conducts a confirmatory analysis according to the unsafe events of ATC in resent ten years.
Chapter 6 designs the management strategies of ATC safety coupling risk, proposes the three ATC safety coupling risk management strategies of isolation method,peak shifting method and anti-brittle law for the first time based on the analysis of the coupling process of ATC safety risk and the theory of decoupling of ATC safety coupling risk.
Chapter 7 makes a summary and demonstrates the future prospect of further study on the ATC safety risk coupling mechanism and decoupling method.
空管系统对风险管理的需求已经从“事后处理”发展到“事前预防”阶段,由经验管理转向系统安全风险管理阶段。由于空管系统涉及到人、设备、环境、管理等方面,风险源日趋增多,风险的形成也日益复杂。因此,加强对空管安全风险耦合机理的研究,有助于从系统的角度进一步了解耦合风险对空管安全产生影响的整个动态过程,从而揭示耦合风险的有关规律,以便更好地控制和管理空管安全整体风险,此项研究具有重要的现实意义。本论文综合运用现代风险管理理论、安全科学、复杂科学、系统论、故障诊断理论、经济计量学等相关学科的理论和方法,将多学科的学术前沿内容有机地交叉融合在一起,具有重要的研究价值。全文由七大部分组成：
第一部分说明了研究背景及选题的来源,明确了研究目标和研究意义,在国内外相关研究综述的基础上,确定了研究内容和方法。
第二部分阐述了空管安全风险的内涵和特征,在此基础上对空管安全风险耦合的内涵作了界定,并对空管安全风险耦合的关键要素进行了分析。然后,提出了风险相干原理、风险波动原理和空管系统脆性原理,以期为系统分析空管安全风险耦合机理提供理论参照。
第三部分重点研究了空管安全风险的耦合规律。在对空管安全风险耦合进行分类的基础上,提炼出了空管安全风险耦合的特征；接着对空管安全风险因素进行深入分析,详细地剖析了空管安全风险耦合的过程；然后,首次运用系统动力学的原理和方法对空管安全风险各因素之间的相互作用进行了因果关系分析；并对空管安全风险耦合过程中的风险流用数学语言进行了描述。
第四部分对空管安全风险致因进行了探讨。通过设计空中交通管制安全风险调查问卷,并对问卷进行效度和信度检验,验证了本文提出的假设,揭示了引发空管安全主要风险因素的内在原因。
第五部分在对相关的风险模型进行比较和选择的基础上,首次构建了基于复杂网络的空管安全风险耦合N-K模型,并结合空管近十年来的不安全事件进行了验证性分析。
第六部分对空管安全耦合风险管理策略进行设计。基于空管安全风险耦合过程的分析,结合空管安全耦合风险的解耦原理,首次提出了网格化、错峰法和防脆型三种空管安全耦合风险管理策略。
第七部分对全文进行了总结,并对空管安全风险耦合机理及解耦方法后期的深入研究进行了展望。
The aviation transportation is under rapid development, the air traffic flow has been growing constantly and environment in airspace has become increasingly complicated. As safety has always been the highest priority for aviation, it puts forward higher requirements to air traffic control (ATC), making the service and security capacity of air traffic control of China a more prominent bottleneck.So,if the abilities of safeguarding ATC safety can not be improved effectivelymore and more civil aviation accidents and incidents will take place and appear.
What the ATC industry requires in risk management now has developed from "post-flight processing" to the period of prevention in advance ",from the stage of management by experience to systematic safety risk management. Because the ATC system involves the aspects of person,hardware,environment and management, the source of risk has been increasing and the forming process of risk has become increasingly complicated.So, the research on the coupling mechanism of ATC safety risk can help to get a further understanding of the whole dynamic process of how the coupling risk have effect on ATC safety and reveal the relevant laws of coupling risk.So that, the whole ATC safety risk can be controlled and managed better,making the research of important practical significance.This dissertation employs the theories and methods of modern risk management, safety science, complexity science,system theory,fault diagnosis theory and econometrics,includes the contents of academic frontiers from many subjects and has a significant research value.The whole dissertation is composed of 7 parts as follows:
Chapter 1 explains the research background and the source of the solected topic, makes clear the contents and the methods of the research based on the research review of home and abroad.
Chapter 2 details the connotation and feature of ATC safety risk, and based on this,defines the connotation of ATC safety risk coupling and analyzes the key factors of it.Then this dissertation puts forward the principles of risk coherence,risk volatility and principles of the ATC system brittleness.The aim is to provide theoretical reference for the systematic analysis of ATC safety risk coupling mechanism and decoupling method.
Chapter 3 mainly studys the coupling law of ATC safety risk,epurates the characteristics of ATC safety risk coupling based on the classification of ATC safety risk coupling, then makes a thorough analysis on the ATC safety risk factors and analyzes the coupling process of ATC safety risk in detail, and then applies the theory and method of system dynamics to study the causation of the interactions among the many factors of ATC safety risk for the first time and describes the risk flow in the process of ATC safety risk coupling in mathematical language.
Chapter 4—explores the cause of ATC safety risk, tests the hypothesis the dissertation proposed through designing the questionnaire of ATC safety risk and testing validity and reliability of the questionnaire and indicates the essential reason that cause the main ATC safety risk factors.
Chapter 5 establishes the N-K model of ATC safety risk coupling based on complicated net for the first time after comparing the many related risk models, and conducts a confirmatory analysis according to the unsafe events of ATC in resent ten years.
Chapter 6 designs the management strategies of ATC safety coupling risk, proposes the three ATC safety coupling risk management strategies of isolation method,peak shifting method and anti-brittle law for the first time based on the analysis of the coupling process of ATC safety risk and the theory of decoupling of ATC safety coupling risk.
Chapter 7 makes a summary and demonstrates the future prospect of further study on the ATC safety risk coupling mechanism and decoupling method.
引文
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