京津冀区域经济一体化发展模型研究
|
摘要
京津冀区域经济一体化发展模型研究,是当前我国区域经济发展中的一个难点问题。涉及区域间如何实现优势互补、协调发展,是继长三角、珠三角经济圈发展、推动我国经济结构调整优化的重要举措,具有重要的理论和现实意义。
本文研究京津冀区域经济一体化发展问题。主要内容有:一是在分析了国内外有关区域合作理论的基础上,以Leontief发明的投入产出技术为基础,将不同区域相同年度的投入产出表加工整合,成功编制了京津冀区域8部门和42部门经济一体化投入产出表,解决了京津冀经济一体化模型的建立与应用问题;二是在此基础上,设计出环京津创业带是由河北省境内以北京-天津轴线为中心的呈“C”型分布的构成的带状经济6城市区域;三是应用改进RAS方法对直接消耗系数矩阵进行修正,在考虑“十一五”国民经济社会发展计划目标的前提下,预测出2010年京津冀区域各产品部门最终需求值,从而完成了京津冀区域42部门经济一体化投入产出预测模型的构建,提出了京津冀区域各项指标的预测值,并与长三角、珠三角发展对比,作出了“十一五”期间该区域发展的政策建议。四是将投入产出模型与层次分析方法及多目标规划方法相结合,对其一个地区进行了主导产业部门的选择和优化研究,提出了主导产业部门的增长对国民经济带动影响程度、“十一五”期间国民经济主要指标预测方案。五是京津冀经济一体化模型的建立与应用研究,均建立在相同年度不同区域其各自编制的投入产出表之上,这是一种科学的探索,它不仅是基础数据准确、完整,也使有关模型易于系统化,为全国其他区域经济一体化的研究提供了途径。
Research on development model of economic integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, is currently a hard issue in regional economic development in China. Involving how to achieve complementary dominance, coordinated development, further to the Yangtze River Delta Area and the Pearl River Delta Area, it is an major measure used to push the optimization of reconstruction of economic structure, and is of great significance both theoretically and practically.
This paper conducts a research on economic integration development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. The contents are as follows: firstly, on the basis of theories of regional cooperation both at home and abroad, based on Leontief’s input-output technology, input-output tables of 8 sectors and 42 sectors respectively are compiled, which solves the problem of establishment and application of the said model; secondly, Circling Beijing-Tianjin Undertaking Belt is the six urban areas in C shape with the axis of Beijing-Tianjin as centers; thirdly, by means of RAS approach, direct consumption coefficient matrix is revised, by taking into consideration of the objective of national economic and social development for the eleventh“Five-year Plan”. The final demand values of various product sectors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in 2010 are predicted, hence, the input-output model of 42 sectors comes into being. Compared with development in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, this paper comes up with suggestions for development in the Area. Fourthly, by combining input-output model with step analysis method and multi-objective plan method, research is conducted on choice and optimization of dominating sector of a certain region, and major indicators prediction approach is produced. Lastly, this paper undertakes research on establishment and application of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Economic Integration Model, which is based on input-output table of the same year but different region (compiled by Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei respectively). This is a kind of scientific exploration with accurate and complete data. Moreover, it promotes systemization of relevant models, providing a method for research on regional economic integration in other parts of the country.
本文研究京津冀区域经济一体化发展问题。主要内容有:一是在分析了国内外有关区域合作理论的基础上,以Leontief发明的投入产出技术为基础,将不同区域相同年度的投入产出表加工整合,成功编制了京津冀区域8部门和42部门经济一体化投入产出表,解决了京津冀经济一体化模型的建立与应用问题;二是在此基础上,设计出环京津创业带是由河北省境内以北京-天津轴线为中心的呈“C”型分布的构成的带状经济6城市区域;三是应用改进RAS方法对直接消耗系数矩阵进行修正,在考虑“十一五”国民经济社会发展计划目标的前提下,预测出2010年京津冀区域各产品部门最终需求值,从而完成了京津冀区域42部门经济一体化投入产出预测模型的构建,提出了京津冀区域各项指标的预测值,并与长三角、珠三角发展对比,作出了“十一五”期间该区域发展的政策建议。四是将投入产出模型与层次分析方法及多目标规划方法相结合,对其一个地区进行了主导产业部门的选择和优化研究,提出了主导产业部门的增长对国民经济带动影响程度、“十一五”期间国民经济主要指标预测方案。五是京津冀经济一体化模型的建立与应用研究,均建立在相同年度不同区域其各自编制的投入产出表之上,这是一种科学的探索,它不仅是基础数据准确、完整,也使有关模型易于系统化,为全国其他区域经济一体化的研究提供了途径。
Research on development model of economic integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, is currently a hard issue in regional economic development in China. Involving how to achieve complementary dominance, coordinated development, further to the Yangtze River Delta Area and the Pearl River Delta Area, it is an major measure used to push the optimization of reconstruction of economic structure, and is of great significance both theoretically and practically.
This paper conducts a research on economic integration development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. The contents are as follows: firstly, on the basis of theories of regional cooperation both at home and abroad, based on Leontief’s input-output technology, input-output tables of 8 sectors and 42 sectors respectively are compiled, which solves the problem of establishment and application of the said model; secondly, Circling Beijing-Tianjin Undertaking Belt is the six urban areas in C shape with the axis of Beijing-Tianjin as centers; thirdly, by means of RAS approach, direct consumption coefficient matrix is revised, by taking into consideration of the objective of national economic and social development for the eleventh“Five-year Plan”. The final demand values of various product sectors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in 2010 are predicted, hence, the input-output model of 42 sectors comes into being. Compared with development in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, this paper comes up with suggestions for development in the Area. Fourthly, by combining input-output model with step analysis method and multi-objective plan method, research is conducted on choice and optimization of dominating sector of a certain region, and major indicators prediction approach is produced. Lastly, this paper undertakes research on establishment and application of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Economic Integration Model, which is based on input-output table of the same year but different region (compiled by Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei respectively). This is a kind of scientific exploration with accurate and complete data. Moreover, it promotes systemization of relevant models, providing a method for research on regional economic integration in other parts of the country.
引文
[1] 黄贤金,循环经济:产业模式与政策体系,南京:南京大学出版社,2004
[2] 李惠茹,融入京津冀一体化的河北省产业布局调整,河北统计信息,2005,(4):37-38
[3]孙东川、杨立洪,《管理的数量方法》,北京清华大学出版社,2005
[4] 刘起运、张红霞,宏观经济系统的投入产出分析,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2006
[5] 宋德生,广西宏观经济模型及景气分析,南宁:科学出版社,2005
[6] 黄贤金,循环经济:产业模式与政策体系,南京:南京大学出版社,2004
[7] 李立辉,区域产业集群与工业化反梯度推移,北京:经济科学出版社,2005
[8] 刘力,城市与区域的可持续发展,广州:中山大学出版社,2004
[9] 母爱英。区域经济政策新视角研究,北京:经济科学出版社,2004
[10] 苏东水,产业经济学,北京:高等教育出版社,2000
[11] 赵国岭,京津冀区域经济合作问题研究,北京:中国经济出版社,2006
[12] 杨连云,京津冀正在崛起的中国经济增长第三极,石家庄:河北人民出版社,2005
[13] 巨文忠、任锦鸾,京津冀地区经济科技地位弱化趋势与区域经济一体化,调研报告,2003,(18):47-51
[14]中华人民共和国商业部,http://3w.mofcom.gov.cn/article/200209/20020900041226-1.xml
[15] 田勇,华北经济圈整合谁是赢家,中国改革,2004(7):
[16] 亚当.斯密,国民财富的性质和原因的研究,北京:商务出版社,2002
[17] 刘再兴,区域经济理论与方法,北京:中国物价出版社,1996
[18] 李嘉图,郭大力、王亚南译,政治经济学及赋税原理,北京:商务印书馆,1962
[19] 约翰.姆勒,胡企林,朱央译,政治经济学原理,北京:商务印书馆,1997
[20] 约翰.姆勒,胡企林译,政治经济学原理,北京:商务印书馆,1993
[21] 郭熙保,发展经济学经典论著选,北京:中国经济出版社,1998
[22] 李仁贵,西方区域经济发展的历史经验理论评价,经济学动态,2003(3):15-18
[23] 郝寿义,安虎森,区域经济学,北京:经济科学出版社,1999
[24] 迪金斯,近代地理学创始人,北京:商务印书馆,1980
[25] 阎二旺,区域经济发展的微观机理,北京:经济科学出版社,2003
[26] 陈秀山,张可云,区域经济理论,北京:商务印书馆,2003
[27] 约瑟夫.熊彼特,经济发展理论,北京:商务印书馆,1990
[28] Sen, A.K., Growth Economics, Penguin Harmondsworth , 1970
[29] 阿尔弗雷德·S·艾克纳,经济学为什么还不是一门科学,北京:北京大学出版社
[30] 马克·布劳格,经济学方法论,北京:商务印书馆,1992
[31] 董承章,投入产出分析,北京:中国财政经济出版社,2002
[32] 暴奉贤、陈宏立,经济预测与决策方法,广州:暨南大学出版社,2002
[33] 高洪深,经济系统分析教程,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2003
[34] 许宪春、刘起运,中国投入产出理论与实践,北京:中国统计出版社,2002
[35] 约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯著,就业、利息和货币通论,北京:商务印书馆,1999。
[36] 赫希曼,经济发展战略,台湾:银行经济研究室,1971
[37] 瓦西里·列昂惕夫,投入产出经济学,北京:中国统计出版社,1990
[38] 国家统计局国民经济核算司,全国投入产出调查培训手册,北京:中国经济出版社,2002
[39] 刘鸿熙、林贤郁,日本编制和应用投入产出表简介,北京:中国统计出版社,1998
[40] 肖嘉奎、周逸江,投入产出表和分析,北京:中国社会科学出版社,1981
[41]罗伯勋,投入产出分析及其数学基础,武汉:华中工学院出版社,1987
[42] 沈士成、于光中,投入产出分析教程,郑州:河南人民出版社,1987
[43] 刘桂苏,国民经济有序结构的优化设计,北京:经济科学出版社,1986
[44] 陈锡康,当代中国投入产出理论与实践,北京:中国国际广播出版社,1988
[45] 李强,当代中国投入产出应用与发展,北京:中国统计出版社,1992
[46] 李强、刘起运,当代中国投入产出实证与探新,北京:中国统计出版社,1995
[47] 李强、刘起运,当代中国投入产出实践与研究,北京:中国统计出版社,1999
[48] 国家统计局国民经济平衡统计司,投入产出宏观经济分析,北京:中国统计出版社,1993
[49] 李庆真、韩淑敏,投入产出统计学,天津:天津科学技术出版社,1987
[50] 奎奈,经济表分析,魁奈经济著作选集,北京:商务印书馆,1979
[51] 奥斯卡·兰格,经济计量学导论,北京:中国社会科学出版社,1980
[52] Problems of Input Tables and Analysis, Studies in Methods, Series F, United Nations, New York, 1966
[53] 顾海兵,经济系统分析,北京:北京出版社,1998
[54] 杨小苏等,计划管理新论,北京:经济管理出版社,1993
[55] 王小波,投入产出分析,北京:中国统计出版社,1996
[56] 张金水,可计算非线性动态投入产出模型,北京:清华大学出版社,2000
[57] Rasmussen P.N., Studies in Inter - Sectoral Relations Amsterdam: North Holland Pulishing Co.1956
[58] Riedal, James, A Balanced-Growth Version of the Linkage Hypothesis: A Comment, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1976,2:319～322
[59] mpson, David and Jinkichi Tsukui, The Fundamental Structure of Input-Output Tables, An International Comparison, Review of Economics and Statistics, 1965, (47),434～446
[60] Yotopoulos P.A and J.b.Nugent, A Balanced - Growth Version of the Linkage Hypothesis: A Test, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1973, 1:157～171
[61] 国家统计局国民经济核算司,中国 2002 年投入产出表编制方法,北京:中国统计出版社,2005
[62] 国家统计局国民经济核算司,中国国民经济核算,北京:中国统计出版社,2004
[63] 宋辉,产业结构与部门发展模型研究,北京:经济科学出版社,2004
[64] 肖嘉魁、周逸江,投入产出表和分析,北京:中国社会科学出版社,1981
[65] 庞自岩、向蓉美,投入产出分析,成都:西南财经大学出版社,1989
[66] 唐小我,修改直接消耗系数的一种新方法,预测,1991,(2):46～50
[67] 曾五一,统计估算理论、方法和应用研究,北京:中国金融出版社,1999
[68] Szyrmer Janusz, Trade-Off between Error and information in the RAS Procedure, In Frontiers of Input-Output Analysis, edited by Ronald E. Miller, Karen R. Polenske and Adam Z. Rose, New York: Oxford University Press,1989
[69] Jensen, R. C., The Concept of Accuracy in Regional Input-Output Models, International Regional Science Review, 1980, 5(2):139～154
[70] McMenamin, David G.. and Joseph E. Haring, An Appraisal of Nonsurvey Techniques for Estimating Regional Input-Output Models, Journal of Regional Science,1974,14(2): 191～205
[71] Ali, Reza Jalili, Comparison of Two Methods of Identifying Input-Output Coefficients for Exogenous Estimation, Economic Systems Research, 2000, 12(1):113～129
[72] Robinson, Sherman, Andrea Cattaneo and Moataz El-said, Updateing and Estimating a Social Accounting Matrix using Cross Entropy Methods, Economic Systems Research, 2001, 13(1):47～63
[73] Gilchrist, Donald A. and Larry V. St Louis, Completing Input-Output Table using Partial Information, with an Application to Canadian Date, Economic Systems Research, 1999, 11(2):185～194
[74] 唐焕文、秦学志,最优化方法,大连:大连理工大学出版社,1994
[75] 唐焕文,大系统优化有效算法的研究,系统工程学报,1997,(1):1～8
[76] 日本经济企划厅,日本经济结构调查与经济,北京:中国经济计划出版社,1988
[77] 陈锡康,投入占用产出分析,投入产出理论与实践,北京:国际广播出版社,1988
[78] Chen Xikang, Input-Occupancy-Output Analysis and Its Application in China,in Dynamics and Conflict in Regional Structural Change, Edited by Manas Chattezji and R.E.Kuenne, Macmillan Press,London,1990。
[79] 陈锡康等,中国城乡经济投入占用产出分析,北京:科学出版社,1992
[80] ChenXikang,XueXinwei,ChenZhong and Guo Ju-e, An Input-Occupancy-Output Table fot Urban and Rural Economies of China, Jornal of System Science and Systems Engineering,1992, 1(2)88-89
[81] Economic Systems Research, Special issue on intersectoral R&D spillovers, 1997, 9:(1),3～142
[82] Axel During and Hermann Schnabl, Imputed interindustry technology flows a comparative SMFA analysis, Economic Systems research, 2000, 12:(3),362～375
[83] 汪同三、张守一,21 世纪数量经济学,北京:中国统计出版社,2001
[84] 张恒江等,投入产出直接消耗系数修订的神经网络方法,系统工程,1997,(2):57～
[85] 瓦西里·列昂惕夫,美国经济制度中投入产出的数量关系,经济与统计评论,1936,105～125
[86] Kigyossy Schmidt, E.Mathes, On the Instability of Dynamic Leontief System,9th International Conference of Input-Output Techniques,1992。
[87] Lynch, R. G., An Assessment of the RAS Method for Updating Input-Output Tables, In Readings in Input-Output Analysis,Theory and Applications, edited by Ira Sohn, New York,Oxford University Presss,1979 [10] Malizia, Emil and Daniel L. Bond, Empirical Tests of the RAS Method of Interindustry Coefficient Adjustment, Journal of Regional Science, 1974,13(1): 355～365
[88] Sonis, Michael and Geoffrey J. D. Hewings, Coefficient Change in Input-Output Models: Theory and Applications, Economic Systems Research, 1992,4(2):143～157
[89] Toh, Mun-Heng, The RAS Approach in Updating Input-Output Matrices: An Instrumental Variable Interpretation and Analysis of Structural Change, Economic Systems Research, 1998, 10(1):63～79
[90] Torii, Y. and K. Fukassaku, Economic development and change in linkages structure,An input-output analysis of the Republic of Korea and Japan, Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on Input-Output Techniques, UNIDO, 1984
[91] Abdul Qayyum Khan, Structural change in Pakistan's interindustry relationships, Economic Systems Research, 1991, 3(2):163～170
[92] Barbara M. Roberts, Structural change in Poland,1980-90:Evidnce from social accounting multipliers and linkage analysis, Economic Systems Research, 1995, 7:(3),291～309
[93] Xiaoli Hsn, Structural change and labor Requirement of the Japanese Economy,Economic Systems Research, 1995, 7(1):107-109
[94] Xiannuan Lin & Karen R. Polenske, Input-output anatomy of China's energy use changes in the 1980s, 1995, 7(1):67-84
[95] Teng Jian, Input-output analysis economic growth and structural changes in China, Journal of Applied Input-Output Analysis, 1996, 3,18～55
[96] Heinz D. Kurz & Neri Salvadori(2000a),Classical' roots of input-output analysis: a short account of its long prehistory, Economic Systems Resarch, 2000, 12:(2):105-108
[97] Heinz D. Kurz & Neri Salvadori(2000b), The dynamic Leontief model and the theory of endogenous growth, Economic Systems Research, 2000, 12:(2):79-81
[98] Leontief, W. Input-output analysis, in: J. Eatwell, M.Milgate & P.New-man(eds.), The New Palgrave A Dictionary of Economics,1987,(2),60～64
[99] Henrik k. Jacobsen, Energy demand, structural change and trade: a decomposi-tion analysis of the Danish manufacturing industry, Economic Systems research, 2000, 12:(3),319～343
[100] Pasinetti, L. L Structural Economic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press,1993
[101] Rose, A. & Miernyk, W. Input-output analysis: the first fifty years, Economic Systems Research, 1989,229～271
[102] 保罗·斯威齐,资本主义发展论,北京:商务印书馆,2000
[103] Piet J.J. Lesuis, Paul K.C. de Boer, Rins Harkema & Bar Hobijn, Structural models of factor demands and technological change: An empirical assessment of dynamic adjustment specifications for sectors of the Dutch economy, Economic System Research, 1996, 8:(4),341～360
[104] Edward N. Wolff, Spillovers, linkages and technical change, Economic Systems Research, 1997, 9:(1),9～23
[105] Chen Xikang and Guo JU-e, Chinese Economic Structure and SDA Model, Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, 2000, 9:(2),142～148
[106] 瓦西里·列昂惕夫,投入产出分析,新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典,北京:经济科学出版社,1992,(2):927-931
[107] 史忠良等,产业经济学,北京:经济管理出版社,1998
[108] 戴伯勋等,现代产业经济学,北京:经济管理出版社,2001
[109] 西蒙·库兹涅茨,现代经济的增长,国外经济学论文选,北京:商务印书馆,1981
[110] R·坎伯和 J·麦金托什,二元经济,新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典,北京:经济科学出版社,1992,(1):1000～1003
[111]河北省统计局 1997、2002 年投入产出表
[112]北京市统计局 1997、2002 年投入产出表
[113]天津市统计局 1997、2002 年投入产出表
[114] W·W·罗斯托,从起飞进入持续增长的经济学,成都:四川人民出版社,1988
[115] Pasinetti, L.L., Structural Economic Dynamics——A Theory of the Economic Consequences of Human Learning, Cambridge University Press,1993
[116] 海韦尔·G·琼斯,现代经济增长理论导引,北京:商务印书馆,1994
[117] H·钱纳里、S·鲁宾逊、M·塞尔奎因,工业化和经济增长的比较研究,上海:上海三联书店,1989
[118] 劳埃德·雷诺兹,经济学的三个世界,北京:商务印书馆,1990,246～247
[119] Cornall, J. and Cornwall, W., Growth Theory and Economic Structure, Economica, 61:1994, 237～351
[120] Pasinetti, L.L. and Solow, R.M.(ed.), Economic Growth and the Structure of Long-term Development——Proceedings of the IEA Conference held in Varenna, Italy, St.Martin'sPress,1994
[121] Pasinetti, L.L, Structural Change and Economic Growth——A Theoretical Essay on the Dynamics of the Wealth of Nations, Cambridge University Press, 1981
[122] J·G.·帕尔马,结构主义,新帕尔格雷夫经济大辞典,北京,经济科学出版社,1992,(4),570～573
[123] 陈宗胜等,新发展经济学——回顾与展望,北京:中国发展出版社,1996
[124] 谭崇台,发展经济学,上海:上海人民出版社,1989
[125] 刘小瑜,中国产业结构的投入产出分析,北京:经济管理出版社,2003
[126] 周振华,现代经济增长中的结构效应,上海:上海人民出版社,1995
[127] 金德尔伯格等,经济发展,上海:上海译文出版社,1986
[128] 李强、薛天栋,中国经济发展部门分析,北京:中国统计出版社,1998
[129] 罗斯托,经济成长的阶段,北京:商务印书馆,1962
[130] 周振华,产业结构优化论,上海:上海人民出版社,1992
[131] 石磊,中国产业结构成因与转换,上海:复旦大学出版社,1996
[132] 钟契夫,投入产出分析,北京:中国财政经济出版社,1993
[133] 肖常纪,关于动态投入产出模型的状态方程,武汉水运工程学院学报,1994,(2)182～187
[134] 涂国平,动态投入产出模型的一种数值解法,预测,1994,(4),49～50
[135] 顾炳华、张清,投入产出模型的可分解性(I-A)-1 的探讨,化学工业与工程技术,1997,(4):3～47
[136] 董方庭等,一种动态投入产出模型的控制研究,杭州电子工业学院学报,1993,(3):20～27
[137] 陈宏等,利用投入产出模型研究最优产业结构,电子科技大学学报,1997,(3):293～297
[138] 张铁林,基于投入产出理论的技术进步评价系统研究,系统工程理论与实践,1998, (6):11～16
[139] Brynjolfsson, E. and L.Hitt, Information Technology as a Factor of Production: The Role of Difference Among Firme, Economics of Innovation and New Techonlogy, 1995, 183～200
[140] Goldin, Claudia, and Lawrence Katz, THE Origins of Technology-Skill Complementarity,Quarterly Journal of Economics, CXIII, 1998, 673～792
[141] Brynjolfsson, Timothy F., Erik Brynjolfsson and Lorin M.Hitt, Information Technology, Workplace Organization, Demand for Skilled Labor, Firm-Level Evidence, The Quartely of Economics, 2002, 339～337
[142] Levy, Frank and Richard J.Murnane, With What Skill Are Computers a Complement, American Economic Review, 1996, (2),259～262
[143] Kim, Seon-Jae and Yongki Hahn, Venture capital industry and its role in the Untied States economy of the United States model to the economy of the republic of Korea, Asia-Paciffic Development Journal, 1998,5(2):99～117
[144] Bresnahan, T. and M. Trajtenberg, General Purpose Technologies: Engines of Growth, Journale of Econometrics, 1995, 65,83～108
[145] Fisher, Franklin M., The IBM and Microsoft Case: What's the Difference, American Economic Review, 2000, 90:(2),180～183
[146] Johnston, D.W., The Development of A Dual Economy, The Economic Journal, 1961, (71):309～334
[147] Harris John.R., and Michael.p.Todaro, Migration, Unemployment and Development: A Two Sector Analysis, America Economic Journal, 1970,(60),126～142
[148] 威廉·H·密尔涅克,投入产出分析基础理论,北京:中国社会科学出版社,1980
[149] Jorgenson, Dale W., The Development of a Dual Economy, Economic Journal 1961, 71:(2822),309～334
[150] Syrquin,M., Structural Transformation and the New Growth Theory, in L.L. Pasinetti and R. M. Solow, Economic Growthand the Structure of long - Term Development,1994,106～115
[151] Syrquin, M. and H. B. Chenery, Three Decades of Industrialization, The World Bank Economic Review, 1989,(3),145～81
[152] Pasinetti, L.L., The Structure of Long - Term Development: Concluding Comments, in L.L. Pasinetti and R. M. Solow, Economic Growth and the Structure of Long - Term Development, 1994,159～172
[153] U.Bulmer-Thomas, Input-Output Analysis in Developing Country, Sources, Methods and Application. John Wiley & LTD, 1982
[154] G.Pyatt, J.J, Round. Social Accounting Matrices, A Basis for Planning, The Wold Bank, 1985,83～87
[155] Foreign Economic Report No.18 Input-Output, Strature of the Soviet Economic, 1972, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census, 1983,177～196
[156] Tamura, H. DeCentralisd optimisation for distributed lag modes of discrete systems, Automatica, 1975,1:31～35
[157] Singh, M, G, and Titli, A, H. Modelling and hierarchical oqtimisltion for oversn - turated urban road taffic neiworks, Int.J. Conrrol, 1974,144～149
[158] SINGH, M, H, and Titli, A, Systems: Decomposition, Optimisation and Control Peramon Press, 1978
[159] John K, Shap and William R. Perkins, A new opproch to dvnnmic input-output models Automatic, 1973,109～111
[160] Klaus Rennings, Hubert Wiggering. Steps towards indicators of Susainable development: Linking economic and ecological concepts, Economics,1997,(20),25～36
[161] Fritsch B. Energy and Environment in Terms of Evolutionary Economic, International Journal of Energy, Environment Economics, 1996, 3(2):25～41
[162] Brown L R. and Shaw. Six steps to a Sustainable Society, Worldwatch Institute Washington DC, 1982,75～83
[163] Wismer, Susan Katnerine, Planning For Sustainable Development in Canada: A Cmmunity-Based Approach, Dissertation at University of Waterloo, 1992
[164] Sylvie Faucheux, Eliot Muir, and Martin O'Connor, Neoclassical Natural Capital Theory and "Weak" Indication for Sustainability, Land Economics, 1997, 73(4),528～552
[165] The Institute for research on Public Policy, The Brundland Challenge and the Cost of Inaction, Halifax, Nova Scotia, 1990,72～76
[166] Forman R T T. Ecologically Sustainable landscape, 1990,29～37
[167] Jean-Michel Collette, Sustainable Economic development and sustainable energy use, International Journal of Global Energy Issues,1993 4(4):220～239
[168] Revelle, Penelope and Charles Revelle, Introduction-The New Pioneers: Toward a Sustainable society, The Global Environment-Securing a Sustainable Future, Boston and London: Jones and Bartlett Prublishers, 1992,201～213
[169] Meadows D H, et al. The Limits to Growth, Universe books, New York, 1972,16～23
[170] 国家统计局,1987、1992、1997 年价值型投入产出表
[171] 雷明,绿色投入产出核算理论与应用,北京:北京大学出版社,2000
[2] 李惠茹,融入京津冀一体化的河北省产业布局调整,河北统计信息,2005,(4):37-38
[3]孙东川、杨立洪,《管理的数量方法》,北京清华大学出版社,2005
[4] 刘起运、张红霞,宏观经济系统的投入产出分析,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2006
[5] 宋德生,广西宏观经济模型及景气分析,南宁:科学出版社,2005
[6] 黄贤金,循环经济:产业模式与政策体系,南京:南京大学出版社,2004
[7] 李立辉,区域产业集群与工业化反梯度推移,北京:经济科学出版社,2005
[8] 刘力,城市与区域的可持续发展,广州:中山大学出版社,2004
[9] 母爱英。区域经济政策新视角研究,北京:经济科学出版社,2004
[10] 苏东水,产业经济学,北京:高等教育出版社,2000
[11] 赵国岭,京津冀区域经济合作问题研究,北京:中国经济出版社,2006
[12] 杨连云,京津冀正在崛起的中国经济增长第三极,石家庄:河北人民出版社,2005
[13] 巨文忠、任锦鸾,京津冀地区经济科技地位弱化趋势与区域经济一体化,调研报告,2003,(18):47-51
[14]中华人民共和国商业部,http://3w.mofcom.gov.cn/article/200209/20020900041226-1.xml
[15] 田勇,华北经济圈整合谁是赢家,中国改革,2004(7):
[16] 亚当.斯密,国民财富的性质和原因的研究,北京:商务出版社,2002
[17] 刘再兴,区域经济理论与方法,北京:中国物价出版社,1996
[18] 李嘉图,郭大力、王亚南译,政治经济学及赋税原理,北京:商务印书馆,1962
[19] 约翰.姆勒,胡企林,朱央译,政治经济学原理,北京:商务印书馆,1997
[20] 约翰.姆勒,胡企林译,政治经济学原理,北京:商务印书馆,1993
[21] 郭熙保,发展经济学经典论著选,北京:中国经济出版社,1998
[22] 李仁贵,西方区域经济发展的历史经验理论评价,经济学动态,2003(3):15-18
[23] 郝寿义,安虎森,区域经济学,北京:经济科学出版社,1999
[24] 迪金斯,近代地理学创始人,北京:商务印书馆,1980
[25] 阎二旺,区域经济发展的微观机理,北京:经济科学出版社,2003
[26] 陈秀山,张可云,区域经济理论,北京:商务印书馆,2003
[27] 约瑟夫.熊彼特,经济发展理论,北京:商务印书馆,1990
[28] Sen, A.K., Growth Economics, Penguin Harmondsworth , 1970
[29] 阿尔弗雷德·S·艾克纳,经济学为什么还不是一门科学,北京:北京大学出版社
[30] 马克·布劳格,经济学方法论,北京:商务印书馆,1992
[31] 董承章,投入产出分析,北京:中国财政经济出版社,2002
[32] 暴奉贤、陈宏立,经济预测与决策方法,广州:暨南大学出版社,2002
[33] 高洪深,经济系统分析教程,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2003
[34] 许宪春、刘起运,中国投入产出理论与实践,北京:中国统计出版社,2002
[35] 约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯著,就业、利息和货币通论,北京:商务印书馆,1999。
[36] 赫希曼,经济发展战略,台湾:银行经济研究室,1971
[37] 瓦西里·列昂惕夫,投入产出经济学,北京:中国统计出版社,1990
[38] 国家统计局国民经济核算司,全国投入产出调查培训手册,北京:中国经济出版社,2002
[39] 刘鸿熙、林贤郁,日本编制和应用投入产出表简介,北京:中国统计出版社,1998
[40] 肖嘉奎、周逸江,投入产出表和分析,北京:中国社会科学出版社,1981
[41]罗伯勋,投入产出分析及其数学基础,武汉:华中工学院出版社,1987
[42] 沈士成、于光中,投入产出分析教程,郑州:河南人民出版社,1987
[43] 刘桂苏,国民经济有序结构的优化设计,北京:经济科学出版社,1986
[44] 陈锡康,当代中国投入产出理论与实践,北京:中国国际广播出版社,1988
[45] 李强,当代中国投入产出应用与发展,北京:中国统计出版社,1992
[46] 李强、刘起运,当代中国投入产出实证与探新,北京:中国统计出版社,1995
[47] 李强、刘起运,当代中国投入产出实践与研究,北京:中国统计出版社,1999
[48] 国家统计局国民经济平衡统计司,投入产出宏观经济分析,北京:中国统计出版社,1993
[49] 李庆真、韩淑敏,投入产出统计学,天津:天津科学技术出版社,1987
[50] 奎奈,经济表分析,魁奈经济著作选集,北京:商务印书馆,1979
[51] 奥斯卡·兰格,经济计量学导论,北京:中国社会科学出版社,1980
[52] Problems of Input Tables and Analysis, Studies in Methods, Series F, United Nations, New York, 1966
[53] 顾海兵,经济系统分析,北京:北京出版社,1998
[54] 杨小苏等,计划管理新论,北京:经济管理出版社,1993
[55] 王小波,投入产出分析,北京:中国统计出版社,1996
[56] 张金水,可计算非线性动态投入产出模型,北京:清华大学出版社,2000
[57] Rasmussen P.N., Studies in Inter - Sectoral Relations Amsterdam: North Holland Pulishing Co.1956
[58] Riedal, James, A Balanced-Growth Version of the Linkage Hypothesis: A Comment, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1976,2:319～322
[59] mpson, David and Jinkichi Tsukui, The Fundamental Structure of Input-Output Tables, An International Comparison, Review of Economics and Statistics, 1965, (47),434～446
[60] Yotopoulos P.A and J.b.Nugent, A Balanced - Growth Version of the Linkage Hypothesis: A Test, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1973, 1:157～171
[61] 国家统计局国民经济核算司,中国 2002 年投入产出表编制方法,北京:中国统计出版社,2005
[62] 国家统计局国民经济核算司,中国国民经济核算,北京:中国统计出版社,2004
[63] 宋辉,产业结构与部门发展模型研究,北京:经济科学出版社,2004
[64] 肖嘉魁、周逸江,投入产出表和分析,北京:中国社会科学出版社,1981
[65] 庞自岩、向蓉美,投入产出分析,成都:西南财经大学出版社,1989
[66] 唐小我,修改直接消耗系数的一种新方法,预测,1991,(2):46～50
[67] 曾五一,统计估算理论、方法和应用研究,北京:中国金融出版社,1999
[68] Szyrmer Janusz, Trade-Off between Error and information in the RAS Procedure, In Frontiers of Input-Output Analysis, edited by Ronald E. Miller, Karen R. Polenske and Adam Z. Rose, New York: Oxford University Press,1989
[69] Jensen, R. C., The Concept of Accuracy in Regional Input-Output Models, International Regional Science Review, 1980, 5(2):139～154
[70] McMenamin, David G.. and Joseph E. Haring, An Appraisal of Nonsurvey Techniques for Estimating Regional Input-Output Models, Journal of Regional Science,1974,14(2): 191～205
[71] Ali, Reza Jalili, Comparison of Two Methods of Identifying Input-Output Coefficients for Exogenous Estimation, Economic Systems Research, 2000, 12(1):113～129
[72] Robinson, Sherman, Andrea Cattaneo and Moataz El-said, Updateing and Estimating a Social Accounting Matrix using Cross Entropy Methods, Economic Systems Research, 2001, 13(1):47～63
[73] Gilchrist, Donald A. and Larry V. St Louis, Completing Input-Output Table using Partial Information, with an Application to Canadian Date, Economic Systems Research, 1999, 11(2):185～194
[74] 唐焕文、秦学志,最优化方法,大连:大连理工大学出版社,1994
[75] 唐焕文,大系统优化有效算法的研究,系统工程学报,1997,(1):1～8
[76] 日本经济企划厅,日本经济结构调查与经济,北京:中国经济计划出版社,1988
[77] 陈锡康,投入占用产出分析,投入产出理论与实践,北京:国际广播出版社,1988
[78] Chen Xikang, Input-Occupancy-Output Analysis and Its Application in China,in Dynamics and Conflict in Regional Structural Change, Edited by Manas Chattezji and R.E.Kuenne, Macmillan Press,London,1990。
[79] 陈锡康等,中国城乡经济投入占用产出分析,北京:科学出版社,1992
[80] ChenXikang,XueXinwei,ChenZhong and Guo Ju-e, An Input-Occupancy-Output Table fot Urban and Rural Economies of China, Jornal of System Science and Systems Engineering,1992, 1(2)88-89
[81] Economic Systems Research, Special issue on intersectoral R&D spillovers, 1997, 9:(1),3～142
[82] Axel During and Hermann Schnabl, Imputed interindustry technology flows a comparative SMFA analysis, Economic Systems research, 2000, 12:(3),362～375
[83] 汪同三、张守一,21 世纪数量经济学,北京:中国统计出版社,2001
[84] 张恒江等,投入产出直接消耗系数修订的神经网络方法,系统工程,1997,(2):57～
[85] 瓦西里·列昂惕夫,美国经济制度中投入产出的数量关系,经济与统计评论,1936,105～125
[86] Kigyossy Schmidt, E.Mathes, On the Instability of Dynamic Leontief System,9th International Conference of Input-Output Techniques,1992。
[87] Lynch, R. G., An Assessment of the RAS Method for Updating Input-Output Tables, In Readings in Input-Output Analysis,Theory and Applications, edited by Ira Sohn, New York,Oxford University Presss,1979 [10] Malizia, Emil and Daniel L. Bond, Empirical Tests of the RAS Method of Interindustry Coefficient Adjustment, Journal of Regional Science, 1974,13(1): 355～365
[88] Sonis, Michael and Geoffrey J. D. Hewings, Coefficient Change in Input-Output Models: Theory and Applications, Economic Systems Research, 1992,4(2):143～157
[89] Toh, Mun-Heng, The RAS Approach in Updating Input-Output Matrices: An Instrumental Variable Interpretation and Analysis of Structural Change, Economic Systems Research, 1998, 10(1):63～79
[90] Torii, Y. and K. Fukassaku, Economic development and change in linkages structure,An input-output analysis of the Republic of Korea and Japan, Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on Input-Output Techniques, UNIDO, 1984
[91] Abdul Qayyum Khan, Structural change in Pakistan's interindustry relationships, Economic Systems Research, 1991, 3(2):163～170
[92] Barbara M. Roberts, Structural change in Poland,1980-90:Evidnce from social accounting multipliers and linkage analysis, Economic Systems Research, 1995, 7:(3),291～309
[93] Xiaoli Hsn, Structural change and labor Requirement of the Japanese Economy,Economic Systems Research, 1995, 7(1):107-109
[94] Xiannuan Lin & Karen R. Polenske, Input-output anatomy of China's energy use changes in the 1980s, 1995, 7(1):67-84
[95] Teng Jian, Input-output analysis economic growth and structural changes in China, Journal of Applied Input-Output Analysis, 1996, 3,18～55
[96] Heinz D. Kurz & Neri Salvadori(2000a),Classical' roots of input-output analysis: a short account of its long prehistory, Economic Systems Resarch, 2000, 12:(2):105-108
[97] Heinz D. Kurz & Neri Salvadori(2000b), The dynamic Leontief model and the theory of endogenous growth, Economic Systems Research, 2000, 12:(2):79-81
[98] Leontief, W. Input-output analysis, in: J. Eatwell, M.Milgate & P.New-man(eds.), The New Palgrave A Dictionary of Economics,1987,(2),60～64
[99] Henrik k. Jacobsen, Energy demand, structural change and trade: a decomposi-tion analysis of the Danish manufacturing industry, Economic Systems research, 2000, 12:(3),319～343
[100] Pasinetti, L. L Structural Economic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press,1993
[101] Rose, A. & Miernyk, W. Input-output analysis: the first fifty years, Economic Systems Research, 1989,229～271
[102] 保罗·斯威齐,资本主义发展论,北京:商务印书馆,2000
[103] Piet J.J. Lesuis, Paul K.C. de Boer, Rins Harkema & Bar Hobijn, Structural models of factor demands and technological change: An empirical assessment of dynamic adjustment specifications for sectors of the Dutch economy, Economic System Research, 1996, 8:(4),341～360
[104] Edward N. Wolff, Spillovers, linkages and technical change, Economic Systems Research, 1997, 9:(1),9～23
[105] Chen Xikang and Guo JU-e, Chinese Economic Structure and SDA Model, Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, 2000, 9:(2),142～148
[106] 瓦西里·列昂惕夫,投入产出分析,新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典,北京:经济科学出版社,1992,(2):927-931
[107] 史忠良等,产业经济学,北京:经济管理出版社,1998
[108] 戴伯勋等,现代产业经济学,北京:经济管理出版社,2001
[109] 西蒙·库兹涅茨,现代经济的增长,国外经济学论文选,北京:商务印书馆,1981
[110] R·坎伯和 J·麦金托什,二元经济,新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典,北京:经济科学出版社,1992,(1):1000～1003
[111]河北省统计局 1997、2002 年投入产出表
[112]北京市统计局 1997、2002 年投入产出表
[113]天津市统计局 1997、2002 年投入产出表
[114] W·W·罗斯托,从起飞进入持续增长的经济学,成都:四川人民出版社,1988
[115] Pasinetti, L.L., Structural Economic Dynamics——A Theory of the Economic Consequences of Human Learning, Cambridge University Press,1993
[116] 海韦尔·G·琼斯,现代经济增长理论导引,北京:商务印书馆,1994
[117] H·钱纳里、S·鲁宾逊、M·塞尔奎因,工业化和经济增长的比较研究,上海:上海三联书店,1989
[118] 劳埃德·雷诺兹,经济学的三个世界,北京:商务印书馆,1990,246～247
[119] Cornall, J. and Cornwall, W., Growth Theory and Economic Structure, Economica, 61:1994, 237～351
[120] Pasinetti, L.L. and Solow, R.M.(ed.), Economic Growth and the Structure of Long-term Development——Proceedings of the IEA Conference held in Varenna, Italy, St.Martin'sPress,1994
[121] Pasinetti, L.L, Structural Change and Economic Growth——A Theoretical Essay on the Dynamics of the Wealth of Nations, Cambridge University Press, 1981
[122] J·G.·帕尔马,结构主义,新帕尔格雷夫经济大辞典,北京,经济科学出版社,1992,(4),570～573
[123] 陈宗胜等,新发展经济学——回顾与展望,北京:中国发展出版社,1996
[124] 谭崇台,发展经济学,上海:上海人民出版社,1989
[125] 刘小瑜,中国产业结构的投入产出分析,北京:经济管理出版社,2003
[126] 周振华,现代经济增长中的结构效应,上海:上海人民出版社,1995
[127] 金德尔伯格等,经济发展,上海:上海译文出版社,1986
[128] 李强、薛天栋,中国经济发展部门分析,北京:中国统计出版社,1998
[129] 罗斯托,经济成长的阶段,北京:商务印书馆,1962
[130] 周振华,产业结构优化论,上海:上海人民出版社,1992
[131] 石磊,中国产业结构成因与转换,上海:复旦大学出版社,1996
[132] 钟契夫,投入产出分析,北京:中国财政经济出版社,1993
[133] 肖常纪,关于动态投入产出模型的状态方程,武汉水运工程学院学报,1994,(2)182～187
[134] 涂国平,动态投入产出模型的一种数值解法,预测,1994,(4),49～50
[135] 顾炳华、张清,投入产出模型的可分解性(I-A)-1 的探讨,化学工业与工程技术,1997,(4):3～47
[136] 董方庭等,一种动态投入产出模型的控制研究,杭州电子工业学院学报,1993,(3):20～27
[137] 陈宏等,利用投入产出模型研究最优产业结构,电子科技大学学报,1997,(3):293～297
[138] 张铁林,基于投入产出理论的技术进步评价系统研究,系统工程理论与实践,1998, (6):11～16
[139] Brynjolfsson, E. and L.Hitt, Information Technology as a Factor of Production: The Role of Difference Among Firme, Economics of Innovation and New Techonlogy, 1995, 183～200
[140] Goldin, Claudia, and Lawrence Katz, THE Origins of Technology-Skill Complementarity,Quarterly Journal of Economics, CXIII, 1998, 673～792
[141] Brynjolfsson, Timothy F., Erik Brynjolfsson and Lorin M.Hitt, Information Technology, Workplace Organization, Demand for Skilled Labor, Firm-Level Evidence, The Quartely of Economics, 2002, 339～337
[142] Levy, Frank and Richard J.Murnane, With What Skill Are Computers a Complement, American Economic Review, 1996, (2),259～262
[143] Kim, Seon-Jae and Yongki Hahn, Venture capital industry and its role in the Untied States economy of the United States model to the economy of the republic of Korea, Asia-Paciffic Development Journal, 1998,5(2):99～117
[144] Bresnahan, T. and M. Trajtenberg, General Purpose Technologies: Engines of Growth, Journale of Econometrics, 1995, 65,83～108
[145] Fisher, Franklin M., The IBM and Microsoft Case: What's the Difference, American Economic Review, 2000, 90:(2),180～183
[146] Johnston, D.W., The Development of A Dual Economy, The Economic Journal, 1961, (71):309～334
[147] Harris John.R., and Michael.p.Todaro, Migration, Unemployment and Development: A Two Sector Analysis, America Economic Journal, 1970,(60),126～142
[148] 威廉·H·密尔涅克,投入产出分析基础理论,北京:中国社会科学出版社,1980
[149] Jorgenson, Dale W., The Development of a Dual Economy, Economic Journal 1961, 71:(2822),309～334
[150] Syrquin,M., Structural Transformation and the New Growth Theory, in L.L. Pasinetti and R. M. Solow, Economic Growthand the Structure of long - Term Development,1994,106～115
[151] Syrquin, M. and H. B. Chenery, Three Decades of Industrialization, The World Bank Economic Review, 1989,(3),145～81
[152] Pasinetti, L.L., The Structure of Long - Term Development: Concluding Comments, in L.L. Pasinetti and R. M. Solow, Economic Growth and the Structure of Long - Term Development, 1994,159～172
[153] U.Bulmer-Thomas, Input-Output Analysis in Developing Country, Sources, Methods and Application. John Wiley & LTD, 1982
[154] G.Pyatt, J.J, Round. Social Accounting Matrices, A Basis for Planning, The Wold Bank, 1985,83～87
[155] Foreign Economic Report No.18 Input-Output, Strature of the Soviet Economic, 1972, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census, 1983,177～196
[156] Tamura, H. DeCentralisd optimisation for distributed lag modes of discrete systems, Automatica, 1975,1:31～35
[157] Singh, M, G, and Titli, A, H. Modelling and hierarchical oqtimisltion for oversn - turated urban road taffic neiworks, Int.J. Conrrol, 1974,144～149
[158] SINGH, M, H, and Titli, A, Systems: Decomposition, Optimisation and Control Peramon Press, 1978
[159] John K, Shap and William R. Perkins, A new opproch to dvnnmic input-output models Automatic, 1973,109～111
[160] Klaus Rennings, Hubert Wiggering. Steps towards indicators of Susainable development: Linking economic and ecological concepts, Economics,1997,(20),25～36
[161] Fritsch B. Energy and Environment in Terms of Evolutionary Economic, International Journal of Energy, Environment Economics, 1996, 3(2):25～41
[162] Brown L R. and Shaw. Six steps to a Sustainable Society, Worldwatch Institute Washington DC, 1982,75～83
[163] Wismer, Susan Katnerine, Planning For Sustainable Development in Canada: A Cmmunity-Based Approach, Dissertation at University of Waterloo, 1992
[164] Sylvie Faucheux, Eliot Muir, and Martin O'Connor, Neoclassical Natural Capital Theory and "Weak" Indication for Sustainability, Land Economics, 1997, 73(4),528～552
[165] The Institute for research on Public Policy, The Brundland Challenge and the Cost of Inaction, Halifax, Nova Scotia, 1990,72～76
[166] Forman R T T. Ecologically Sustainable landscape, 1990,29～37
[167] Jean-Michel Collette, Sustainable Economic development and sustainable energy use, International Journal of Global Energy Issues,1993 4(4):220～239
[168] Revelle, Penelope and Charles Revelle, Introduction-The New Pioneers: Toward a Sustainable society, The Global Environment-Securing a Sustainable Future, Boston and London: Jones and Bartlett Prublishers, 1992,201～213
[169] Meadows D H, et al. The Limits to Growth, Universe books, New York, 1972,16～23
[170] 国家统计局,1987、1992、1997 年价值型投入产出表
[171] 雷明,绿色投入产出核算理论与应用,北京:北京大学出版社,2000