基于综合评价法的港口工程投标决策定量研究
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摘要
本文以复杂环境条件下港口工程投标决策为研究对象,依据定量管理决策理论,应用现代综合评价方法进行了投标决策定量研究。
文中首先分析、总结了港口工程施工行业市场竞争的现状和投标管理面临的复杂环境背景,指出投标决策定性分析主观性、盲目性的局限性以及投标决策科学化、定量化的重要意义;然后阐述了投标决策及定量管理决策理论及研究现状,为本文的研究提供理论基础;之后结合公司投标管理的组织模式以及项目实施中存在的问题,分析了投标决策工作的缺陷和不足,并在此基础上,依据投标决策及定量管理决策的基础理论,应用现代综合评价方法,构建了港口工程投标决策定量模型,并介绍了应用该模型进行投标项目评价的步骤;之后介绍了某港口工程的投标工作及项目实施过程中存在的问题,反观和分析了投标决策中的主观性和盲目性的缺陷和不足,并应用定量模型对其进行了评价;最后对本研究作出结论,并指出本研究存在的问题及下一步的研究展望。本文的研究旨在指出公司在投标决策环节亟待解决的主观性、盲目性问题,希望通过定量化模型辅助决策的这种方式方法,为复杂环境条件下公司投标决策科学化、定量化的管理改革提供参考。
The article studies port engineering bidding decision, conducts quantitative study on bidding decision by applying modern comprehensive evaluation method on the basis of quantitative management decision-making theory.
This article first analyzes and summarizes the market competition situation and complicated environment that bidding management has faced of port engineering construction industry ,pointing out limitation of qualitative analysis on bidding decision-making and significance of scientific and quantitative bidding decision, then describes bidding decision-making and quantitative management theory and research status, providing a theoretical basis for this study, Then combines the mode of bidding management organization and project implementation issues, comments flaws and shortcomings of bidding decision-making from the perspective of qualitative analysis. On this basis, according to the bidding decision-making and quantitative management decision theory, builds a port engineering decision quantitative model by applying modern comprehensive evaluation method, and describes the procedure of applying the model on bidding evaluation, then introduces problems exist in port engineering bidding and project implementation process, anti-views and analyzes the defects and shortcomings of bidding decision, and evaluates them by applying the quantitative model . Finally gives conclusions to this study, and points out the existing problems in the study and further research prospect.This study aims to point out problems of subjectivity and blindness that need to be solved on bidding decision-making procure, hoping to provide reference for scientific and quantitative management reform under complicated environment by using the quantitative model on decision-making.
文中首先分析、总结了港口工程施工行业市场竞争的现状和投标管理面临的复杂环境背景,指出投标决策定性分析主观性、盲目性的局限性以及投标决策科学化、定量化的重要意义;然后阐述了投标决策及定量管理决策理论及研究现状,为本文的研究提供理论基础;之后结合公司投标管理的组织模式以及项目实施中存在的问题,分析了投标决策工作的缺陷和不足,并在此基础上,依据投标决策及定量管理决策的基础理论,应用现代综合评价方法,构建了港口工程投标决策定量模型,并介绍了应用该模型进行投标项目评价的步骤;之后介绍了某港口工程的投标工作及项目实施过程中存在的问题,反观和分析了投标决策中的主观性和盲目性的缺陷和不足,并应用定量模型对其进行了评价;最后对本研究作出结论,并指出本研究存在的问题及下一步的研究展望。本文的研究旨在指出公司在投标决策环节亟待解决的主观性、盲目性问题,希望通过定量化模型辅助决策的这种方式方法,为复杂环境条件下公司投标决策科学化、定量化的管理改革提供参考。
The article studies port engineering bidding decision, conducts quantitative study on bidding decision by applying modern comprehensive evaluation method on the basis of quantitative management decision-making theory.
This article first analyzes and summarizes the market competition situation and complicated environment that bidding management has faced of port engineering construction industry ,pointing out limitation of qualitative analysis on bidding decision-making and significance of scientific and quantitative bidding decision, then describes bidding decision-making and quantitative management theory and research status, providing a theoretical basis for this study, Then combines the mode of bidding management organization and project implementation issues, comments flaws and shortcomings of bidding decision-making from the perspective of qualitative analysis. On this basis, according to the bidding decision-making and quantitative management decision theory, builds a port engineering decision quantitative model by applying modern comprehensive evaluation method, and describes the procedure of applying the model on bidding evaluation, then introduces problems exist in port engineering bidding and project implementation process, anti-views and analyzes the defects and shortcomings of bidding decision, and evaluates them by applying the quantitative model . Finally gives conclusions to this study, and points out the existing problems in the study and further research prospect.This study aims to point out problems of subjectivity and blindness that need to be solved on bidding decision-making procure, hoping to provide reference for scientific and quantitative management reform under complicated environment by using the quantitative model on decision-making.
引文
[1]刘力,钱雅丽,建设工程合同管理与索赔,北京:机械工业出版社,2008(7)
[2]金融危机演变:泡沫撑破前的疯狂,北京:中国商人, 2009(4)
[3]高杰,水电施工项目索赔管理系统的构建:[硕士学位论文],重庆大学,2007
[4]孟明星,建设工程投标决策模型研究与应用:[硕士学位论文],天津大学,2006
[5]于海,建设工程招投标管理研究:[硕士学位论文],天津大学,2007
[6]国家计委稽察办,关于当前建设项目招标投标情况和存在的问题,中国工程咨询,2002,(3):26~28
[7]Lawrence Friedman L., A Competitive Bidding Strategy, Operations Research, 1956, 4(1):104~112
[8]邵晓双,谭德庆,招投标理论研究现状,中国市场,2008(26):103~104
[9]Gates L., Bidding Strategies and Probabilities, Journal of the Structural Division ASCE, 1967(05)
[10]Morin.T.L., Richard.H.Clough, OPBID: Competitive Bidding Strategy Model, Journal of Construction Division, ASCE, Vol 95, 1969(7):85~106
[11] Robert.I.Carr, General Bidding Model, Journal of Construction Division, ASCE, 1982, (10):639~649
[12]郝丽萍,基于博弈模型和模糊预测的投标报价策略研究,管理工程学报,2002,(16):94~96
[13]郝丽萍,建设工程投标报价的博弈模型研究,哈尔滨建筑大学学报,2002,(35):109~112
[14]刘尔烈,钱斌,多因素模糊评价的投标报价决策方法,中国港湾建设,2003,(3):51~55
[15]张宪,王雪青,招标控制价模式下工程项目投标报价博弈模型研究,建筑经济,2010,(12):66~70
[16]呼大永,冯玉强,付铭等,在线逆向拍卖供应商投标决策支持模型,哈尔滨工业大学学报,2011,(09):95~100
[17]Ahmad Irtishad, Decision-support System for Modeling Bid/No-bid Decision Problem, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 1990, 116(4): 595~608
[18]Wanous M., Boussabaine A.H., TO Bid or Not to Bid: A Parametric Solution, Construction Management & Economics, 2000, 18(4): 457~466
[19]刘尔烈,王健,骆刚,基于模糊逻辑的工程投标决策方法,土木工程学报,2003,36(3):57~63
[20]曹琳剑,王雪青,刘炳胜等,基于灰色局势法改进的建筑工程投标决策方法研究,北京理工大学学报,2009,(04):68~72
[21]王雪青,郭清娥,曹杨,基于可信性理论的工程投标模糊风险评估,模糊系统与数学,2011,(05):150~157
[22]高子正,对“招标”定义的深入探讨,中国国际招投标网,2006,12
[23]Shash A., Factors Considered in tendering decisions by top UK constructors, Construction Management and Economics, 1993, (11):111~118
[24]赵彪,陈志鼎,影响承包商投标决策的因素极其重要性,三峡大学学报,2002,24(6):550~553
[25]周宇辉,工程项目投标可行性分析与决策模型,2004,(3):49~51
[26]中国乡镇企业管理百科全书,北京:农业出版社,1987
[27]Frederick. Taylor, The Principles of Scientific Management, 1911
[28]Elwood Spencer Buffa, Modern Production Management, 1961
[29]David R. Anderson, Dennis J. Sweeney, Thomas A. Williams, Kipp Martin, An Introduction to Management Science:Quantitative Approaches to Decision Making,Peking:China Machine Press,2009
[30]祝世京,陈珽,定量模型与定性判断相结合的决策方法,控制与决策,1993,(4):249~254
[31]钱学森,关于思维的科学,上海:上海科技出版社,1986:10~21
[32]萧浩辉,决策科学词典,北京:人民出版社,1995
[33]David R. Anderson, Dennis J. Sweeney, Thomas A. Williams, Kipp Martin, An Introduction to Management Science: Quantitative Approaches to Decision Making, Peking:China Machine Press, 2009
[34]公路水路交通行业发展统计公报,北京:交通运输部,2006~2010
[35]王莹,国际工程项目投标机会决策模型方法与应用研究:[硕士学位论文],沈阳工业大学,2008
[36]陈依元,系统科学方法在决策中的应用价值,社会科学,1986,(07)
[37]杜栋,庞庆华,吴炎,现代综合评价方法与案例精选,北京:清华大学出版社,2008
[38]汪培庄,模糊集合论及其应用,上课科学技术出版社,1983
[39]谭雅玲,2007年国际金融危机离我们有多远,中国证券报,2007.03
[40]李利明,袁朝晖,王延春,申兴,回顾十年前亚洲金融危机金融危机离中国有多远,经济观察报,2007.07
[2]金融危机演变:泡沫撑破前的疯狂,北京:中国商人, 2009(4)
[3]高杰,水电施工项目索赔管理系统的构建:[硕士学位论文],重庆大学,2007
[4]孟明星,建设工程投标决策模型研究与应用:[硕士学位论文],天津大学,2006
[5]于海,建设工程招投标管理研究:[硕士学位论文],天津大学,2007
[6]国家计委稽察办,关于当前建设项目招标投标情况和存在的问题,中国工程咨询,2002,(3):26~28
[7]Lawrence Friedman L., A Competitive Bidding Strategy, Operations Research, 1956, 4(1):104~112
[8]邵晓双,谭德庆,招投标理论研究现状,中国市场,2008(26):103~104
[9]Gates L., Bidding Strategies and Probabilities, Journal of the Structural Division ASCE, 1967(05)
[10]Morin.T.L., Richard.H.Clough, OPBID: Competitive Bidding Strategy Model, Journal of Construction Division, ASCE, Vol 95, 1969(7):85~106
[11] Robert.I.Carr, General Bidding Model, Journal of Construction Division, ASCE, 1982, (10):639~649
[12]郝丽萍,基于博弈模型和模糊预测的投标报价策略研究,管理工程学报,2002,(16):94~96
[13]郝丽萍,建设工程投标报价的博弈模型研究,哈尔滨建筑大学学报,2002,(35):109~112
[14]刘尔烈,钱斌,多因素模糊评价的投标报价决策方法,中国港湾建设,2003,(3):51~55
[15]张宪,王雪青,招标控制价模式下工程项目投标报价博弈模型研究,建筑经济,2010,(12):66~70
[16]呼大永,冯玉强,付铭等,在线逆向拍卖供应商投标决策支持模型,哈尔滨工业大学学报,2011,(09):95~100
[17]Ahmad Irtishad, Decision-support System for Modeling Bid/No-bid Decision Problem, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 1990, 116(4): 595~608
[18]Wanous M., Boussabaine A.H., TO Bid or Not to Bid: A Parametric Solution, Construction Management & Economics, 2000, 18(4): 457~466
[19]刘尔烈,王健,骆刚,基于模糊逻辑的工程投标决策方法,土木工程学报,2003,36(3):57~63
[20]曹琳剑,王雪青,刘炳胜等,基于灰色局势法改进的建筑工程投标决策方法研究,北京理工大学学报,2009,(04):68~72
[21]王雪青,郭清娥,曹杨,基于可信性理论的工程投标模糊风险评估,模糊系统与数学,2011,(05):150~157
[22]高子正,对“招标”定义的深入探讨,中国国际招投标网,2006,12
[23]Shash A., Factors Considered in tendering decisions by top UK constructors, Construction Management and Economics, 1993, (11):111~118
[24]赵彪,陈志鼎,影响承包商投标决策的因素极其重要性,三峡大学学报,2002,24(6):550~553
[25]周宇辉,工程项目投标可行性分析与决策模型,2004,(3):49~51
[26]中国乡镇企业管理百科全书,北京:农业出版社,1987
[27]Frederick. Taylor, The Principles of Scientific Management, 1911
[28]Elwood Spencer Buffa, Modern Production Management, 1961
[29]David R. Anderson, Dennis J. Sweeney, Thomas A. Williams, Kipp Martin, An Introduction to Management Science:Quantitative Approaches to Decision Making,Peking:China Machine Press,2009
[30]祝世京,陈珽,定量模型与定性判断相结合的决策方法,控制与决策,1993,(4):249~254
[31]钱学森,关于思维的科学,上海:上海科技出版社,1986:10~21
[32]萧浩辉,决策科学词典,北京:人民出版社,1995
[33]David R. Anderson, Dennis J. Sweeney, Thomas A. Williams, Kipp Martin, An Introduction to Management Science: Quantitative Approaches to Decision Making, Peking:China Machine Press, 2009
[34]公路水路交通行业发展统计公报,北京:交通运输部,2006~2010
[35]王莹,国际工程项目投标机会决策模型方法与应用研究:[硕士学位论文],沈阳工业大学,2008
[36]陈依元,系统科学方法在决策中的应用价值,社会科学,1986,(07)
[37]杜栋,庞庆华,吴炎,现代综合评价方法与案例精选,北京:清华大学出版社,2008
[38]汪培庄,模糊集合论及其应用,上课科学技术出版社,1983
[39]谭雅玲,2007年国际金融危机离我们有多远,中国证券报,2007.03
[40]李利明,袁朝晖,王延春,申兴,回顾十年前亚洲金融危机金融危机离中国有多远,经济观察报,2007.07